Race 1: #2 Feverish Loot appears to have found a good spot in the opener, as he drops in for $16k. Dirt debut came vs. just two others, but the winner of that race was a MSW dropdown from the Kiaran McLaughlin barn who gave Feverish Loot little chance to contend. #1 Thug Daddy is the main competition. He has finished 2nd twice in his last three starts, and he did have some traffic trouble last time, though it is difficult to argue that it really cost him anything. #4 Roman Magic has the advantage of being lightly raced, and he has yet to catch fast dirt, so one could still hold out the hope for better out of him, for now.
Race 2: We're hoping #5 Saharan Serenade gets a fair chance for once as she returns from a layoff. She has made 4 starts on dirt to this point, and has twice caught inside-speed-favoring tracks (note Race Rating Boxes shaded red for her races on Jan. 25 & Sept. 1 last year). She was slammed at the start on May 27th before finishing up OK behind a wire-to-wire winner, and she got in tight and was shuffled back last time. #6 Shotgun Love earned strong TFUS Speed Figure of 84 for solid debut effort contesting a fast pace. Has had a couple of return engagements canceled due to the weather around here, but finally gets a chance to build upon that effort. Horse Shotgun Love dueled with last time, #8 Stonely Heart, is also back in this spot. She stayed on just a bit better in that race, but she's also had more chances. #7 Southern Sunshine is clearly fast enough to win, but she has been burning money since arriving in NY. Perhaps the change of scenery off the claim will have done her some good.
Race 3: Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap for this bottom-level claimer restricted to fillies and mares that have never won two. #2 Over My Head may wind up being part of that pace as she stretches out, but she managed to run well from a tracking position vs. a better field over a mile back on September 18th, and the TFUS Speed Figure of 68 she earned for that effort fits very well in this field. #9 Warm Heart stretched out effectively to break her maiden last time, but can run from off the pace, as well, and her trainer does well with last-out maiden winners (86 Trainer Rating, vs. an overall rating of 66). Seems to be little between #4 Gingee and #10 Bella Fachi, and they both fit well enough here despite having already squandered too many chances.
Race 4: Trainer David Jacobson has two entered for this maiden claiming sprint, including the ML favorite, #2 Sunny Puzzle. No denying that this one is the horse to beat as he drops in class while cutting back to sprint on the dirt for the first time since his debut. That was a good enough effort with a 66 speed figure, and he found a tough field on the stretch-out in his next start, which came over a speed-favoring track. We'll take a shot against him with the other Jacobson runner, #6 Subcontractor. He didn't get away from the gate sharply on debut, and he appeared to race greenly while just getting around there evenly. He didn't have to love the sloppy track he encountered that day, and may show more with that experience behind him. #8 Astron improved to be second best to a rare Jacobson first-time starter last time, and the good run continues for his trainer.
Race 5: Could make cases for a lot of different horses in this well-matched field, which may just come down to trips. We'll hope that #7 Pura Vida Zen finally gets a good one after encountering trouble in each of her last two starts. She was on a good run prior to those spots of trouble, and she is off the re-claim for Steve Klesaris, who gets a strong 94 Trainer Rating off the claim. #8 My Donna Jean drops back down after trying tougher last time. The version of #4 Matching Skies that she defeated two starts back is not the same one who appeared off the claim in her most recent start (which she won convincingly with an 88 speed figure), but My Donna Jean was game in closing that rival down on December 12, and she has been at her best over the inner. #10 Rock Me Mama also drops in class after getting wired over a route of ground vs. tougher last time. Sprints effectively, as she showed two back when finishing gamely for 2nd in the slop vs. a better field (Race Rating of 93, vs today's 86).
Race 6: #3 Tequila Hero was rated back to last as a moderate pace developed last time (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded blue), and he finished gamely after edging out widest in the stretch. Figures to have a more reasonable set up this time, as he makes his second start for Rudy (92 rating second with trainer). #5 Lieutenant Seany O drops back down after trying open allowance company in his last 4 starts to no avail. He will also appreciate any pace that develops in this race. #6 Lucky Lotto takes steep step up in class off the claim after burying weaker with a solid figure of 95. He has really picked up his game since switching over to dirt, posting pair of wins and a close runner-up finish. #2 Percussion continues his descent as he looks for a level where he can be competitive. Took pressure on the pace and had no response to the closers last time, and he may have to deal with the talented returnee #8 Ruthless Alley early on in this spot. Ruthless Alley was last seen posting strong back-to-back wins over this track with TFUS Speed Figures of 103 and 102. May not be reasonable to expect an effort to that level after almost a full year away, but he's a dangerous horse in this race.
Race 7: Interested to see what we get from #8 Doc Daneka, who isolated himself from a bad field when switched to dirt last time, and just kept getting farther away from them en route to TFUS Speed Figure of 94. This race is tougher, but he may be a different horse on the main track. #3 Inca Saint took a hard bump at the start and then raced wide throughout when clear 2nd best to a good winner at this level last time. #4 S'maverlous stretches out for his second start back from a layoff (100 rating for Jason Servis). Lone route attempt directly preceded that layoff.
Race 8: #5 Green Gratto hasn't won a race in almost a full year, but he has continued to run well in some tough spots. He projects to be in control early in this race, and he has earned TFUS Speed Figures of 111-105-107 for his last three starts, any one of which make him the horse to beat. #1 Nubin Ridge is in tough today, but he will be running at the end, and he may have run every bit as well as #4 Regulus (who improved for Rudy) last time after being unable to get clear at a crucial stage. #9 Sir Bond has tactical speed from the outside, and he has won three straight since adding blinkers, but this is a much tougher field. #3 McKenzies Way makes his first start off the private purchase for Jacobson (100 rating First With Trainer), and he has managed speed figures in the past that are competitive here.
Race 9: #4 Ride of Your Life ran a race that would make him very hard to beat in this spot the last time he was on dirt, earning a speed figure of 78. He is returning from a long layoff here after failing to do any running at all on grass, but he has never raced this cheap on dirt. #5 Sir Maurice is tough to take on top at 1-for-19 for low-percentage connections, but he stretches out second off the layoff, and his best races are all dirt routes. We've seen enough of the likes of #2 Fictionalcharacter and #7 Hushhushmushmush, but either one can win this race.