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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for February 1

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday February 1st
Race 1:  #7 Fictionalcharacter has endured his fair share of tough trips, and while much of that is of his own making, he drops to this level for the first time today, and he may appreciate getting back on fast dirt.  Clean trip may be all it takes.  Taking a horse to get to the early lead in a race like this may not be the worst idea in the world, and our Pace Projector indicates that that horse will be #3 American Hero.  In his last start, he kept close to a front-running winner in a race that turned into a stagger-fest late, with the 0-for-59 #6 Keyaly closing from last to get 2nd.  #4 Doc Daneka has never run on dirt, which isn't necessarily a positive, but he's the kind of unknown commodity that can be interesting in this kind of race.
Selections:  7-3-4-1
Race 2:   #4 El Deal was let go at a big price for under-the-radar trainer on debut, but was impressive nonetheless in convincing score.  TFUS Speed Figure of 80 for the effort gives him a big look right back, even if he fails to show any improvement.  #2 Whateveryouwant goes first off the claim for dangerous team of Riccio/Nevin, and does so directly off of career-best effort with 82 speed figure.  Horse to beat looking for three in a row.  #7 Breach of Duty is a filly facing the boys, but is also first off the claim for a capable trainer, and she may be best suited to take advantage if a contested pace develops (race best Late Pace Rating of 54), which is certainly a possibility. 
Selections:  4-2-7-5
Race 3:  #6 Piccolo Flats impressed in breaking her maiden despite sending into an early run two starts back, and she took an even bigger step forward in blowout win last time (88 TFUS Speed Figure) despite making a wide run from off the pace over a track that was favoring inside speed.  #3 Touching My Toes put up new top figure of her own (92) under aggressive handling last time.  Dangerous if taking no prisoners up front once again.  #4 Saythreehailmary's may be a bit better off over shorter trips, but she has never failed to fire and consistently runs figures that make her a major player in here.  
Selections:  6-3-4-5
Race 4: #1 Brannaman is entered for $12.5k in first start off apparent private purchase by Jacobson.  Returned from long layoff in fine form for Baffert, posting three straight TFUS Speed Figures (102-98-97) that "lay over" this field, and he projects to be on a clear early lead.  Mate #1A Indy Sea is taking the kind of negative drop off the claim that only Jacobson seems able to get away with, and his best race makes him a capable backup.  #3 Star of New York is interesting off the claim for Jason Servis (98 rating off the claim) as a 9yo.  Like the turn-back, as he prefers shorter, and he was sprinting effectively through most of 2014 before tailing off late in the year. 
Selections:  1-3-4-9
Race 5:  #1 Money Multiplier  was outrun early before coming with a good run through the stretch in solid 81 speed figure debut.  Stretches out for second start with strong 94 Breeding Rating for dirt routes, and does so for a trainer who is 5 for his last 12 stretching out maidens on dirt off of a sprint debut.  #4 Net Gain took the expected step forward last time after tough trip against a strong inside track two starts back, but he somehow came up short after getting a perfect trip and taking dead aim on the eventual winner.  Still think he has some talent.  #7 Dontbetwithbruno was three-wide throughout debut against that gold rail on Cigar Mile day, and he stepped it up in game try vs. the talented March last time.  Still not sure added distance does him any favors, and he didn't draw all that well on the outside, but he can run.  #3 Mister Monolo has found a tough spot for his 3rd career start, but he was caught brutally wide throughout when behind Dontbetwithbruno last time, and he gets a positive rider change for this.  
Selections:  1-4-7-3
Race 6:  #5 Miss Bellamy raced greenly while wide in debut, and she flashed much more speed second time despite rider keeping a strong hold early.  Goes first off the claim, and should be speed in here with a more aggressive ride.  #9 So Let It Be So hesitated at the break before rushing forward with speed and tiring behind a blowout winner in sloppy track debut.  May not be the best sign that she returns for a tag 108 days later, but she is clearly eligible for much better here.  #8 Childhood Dream is a half-sister to the talented Gridley Here.  Debuts for Rudy, who has sent out 8 debut winners dating back to early in the Saratoga meet, 6 of those in maiden claiming company.  #12 Partytime Chill may be the horse to beat as she drops in class for the first time, but this appears to be an above average maiden claimer.  #14 Weekend Score will need a couple of scratches to get in, but she ran deceptively well first time out after racing greenly early and winding up far back in the field to the top of the stretch.
Selections:  5-9-8-14
Race 7:   #6 Stage Name paid the price after chasing fast paces both two and three starts back (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded in red), but ran winning races both times.  Deserves another chance after losing her rider at the start last time, and Pace Projector favors front-runners in this race.  #5 Pitched goes first off the claim for a young trainer on the rise, and she was always outside vs. that gold rail here on December 28th.  #9 Kleptocrat has earned three career TFUS Speed Figures in the 70s, which is a level unfamiliar to most of her rivals in this spot.  She's more of a closing type, and exits a disappointing effort off of a short break, but is clearly one to fear.  We've not been big fans of #7 Mr Rico Is Valid, but he is difficult to dismiss out of hand considering the run his trainer has been on recently. 
Selections:  6-5-9-7
Race 8:  #10 My Super Nova lost all chance when stumbling badly at the start over a speed-favoring track two starts back, and she simply got the wrong ride last time when electing not to use her speed on the stretch-out.  Only other start sprinting over fast dirt was excellent debut effort with a 94 TFUS Speed Figure.  #2 Sonora gave an experienced and heavily favored My Super Nova all she wanted first time out, and came right back to bury maidens with a solid figure of 91.  Could easily be considered the horse to beat in this spot.  Interested to see what we get from #1 Graeme Crackers, who was game in dueling down The Lewis Dinner (now a multiple stakes winner) on debut before having something go wrong second time out.  
Selections:  10-2-1-7
Race 9:   #9 John Silver drops for third start back from a long layoff.  Figures tough at this level, and projects for good tracking trip in race not lacking for pace.  #2 Hold Everything ships over for debut run out of the Jacobson barn (10 rating first time with trainer).  Was a speed type going longer in California, and was done in by dueling a fast pace when last seen out there.  
Selections:  9-2-3-6

TimeformUS Analysis for January 31

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday January 31
Race 1:  #6 No Texting crushed a field of maidens in his dirt debut two starts back, and wound up in way too tough last time (Race Rating 82, vs. today's 63).  Has never sprinted, but is drawn well on the outside and has speed.  #3 Leverage was a game winner on debut despite having to alter course in the stretch.  Drops after trying a tougher group in second start.  #1 False Positive turns back off the claim for a top trainer (88 rating off the claim).  Had trouble at the start before making up a lot of ground in shorter sprint two starts back.
Selections:  6-3-1-5
Race 2:  #1 Pierce's Prize bombed at a short price when last seen 71 days ago, and did so without apparent excuse.  Prior efforts were all good, and came vs. much better horses, so he can have one more chance.  #4 Stone Crab steps up out of MCL debut that found him rallying some late without threat to front-running Chasing Bubbles.  Rudy gets strong 91 Trainer Rating with second-time starters.  #2 Francis Freud has faced much tougher fields in his two starts to date, and he has the pedigree and connections to follow for another start or two.
Selections:  1-4-2-3
Race 3:  All the signs were there to be against #2 Belle Gallantey when she returned from her layoff in the $100k Affectionately, and she never looked sharp in a tired 5th place finish.  Expecting better from her second time out, and this is a field she will dominate if back in form.  If she's not back in form, #3 Penwith may be in position to pick up her first stakes win.  Still lightly raced enough to project some improvement, she has good speed and, if Belle Gallantey can't run anymore, she may be in control coming to the stretch, as she was when just failing to last in the Affectionately.  #1 Moment in Dixie is a reliable closer; she just isn't that good, and will need things to fall apart late in order to get there. 
Selections:  2-3-1-5
Race 4:  #1 Wishandaprayer was forced to contest a fast early pace after showing speed in his debut, and he had nothing left when the closers arrived.  Went to turf for second start, but he returns on the drop for a trainer having a good meet from limited starters.  #6 To Erin Again had some speed on the drop to the bottom last time (this $16k level is now the bottom for MCLs in NY) and is still lightly raced enough to have another chance.  #5 Prince Raja and #7 Qui C'est Moi are the ML favorites, but they've been piling up the chances while consistently settling for minor awards.  
Selections:  1-6-7-5
Race 5:  #3 I Just Wanna Win turns back out of much tougher spot vs. High Dollar Woman at Parx, and also drops to a more reasonable spot for an excellent trainer who doesn't ship much to NY.  #8 Zenstone was with an inside, speed-favoring track when ridden out to a clear-cut victory last time.  Has speed from a good post, and trainer is in midst of a very strong run.  #7 Munningsgotmusic sat a trip and easily scored over a very weak field in NY debut last time.  Projects for similar trip here, and won't discount her chances to come right back.  #5 Go On Darling prevailed in slow MCL for Baffert in California, and has since been an apparent private purchase by David Jacobson.  He wins with these horses, but we weren't impressed with the debut, and would tread lightly at any short price.
Selections:  3-8-7-1
Race 6:  Late Pick 4 kicks off with solid group of maidens.  #8 Promise and Hope was a big price when finishing behind a couple of these last month, but considering the disastrous start he was off to in that race, he did well to be as close as he was at the end.  #2 Ekhlaas got the best of a fast duel in that same race before being overtaken by a pair of perfect-trip closers in the stretch, including #7 King Rontos.  May have an easier time of it here (unless one of the firsters brings speed to the table) and will add lasix this time (98 Trainer Rating for McLaughlin first-time lasix).  
Selections:  8-2-7-4
Race 7:  Final chance for #6 What the Frost, who has been compromised by dynamics recently (away from slow paces on October 10 and December 15, and tried contesting the pace in race that fell to closers on October 30th).  Figures to be a price, and there is plenty of speed signed on to this race.  #8 Marcy was scratched after acting up in the gate in an easier spot last Sunday (she was heavily favored at the time).  Has improved since the trainer change to Rudy, posting a pair of wins sprinting, including one with a strong finish into a fast pace at Parx.  #7 Bileaps and Bounds drops in class for second start back after getting hooked up on a fast pace first off the layoff.   Was in improved form for this trainer before hitting the sidelines.    
Selections:  6-8-7-1
Race 8:  #1 Bounty Pink has picked up where she left off in two starts since returning from a layoff, including 92 TFUS Speed Figure win when closing down a fast pace in her first race back.  Thought she was 2nd best to the talented Wavell Avenue last time; she missed the place photo after being bothered late and forced onto her wrong lead.  #3 Checkupfromzneckup dominated maidens in the slop with an 88 two back, and she was stuck outside against that gold rail on Cigar Mile day.  Still came through with a strong effort and is the horse to beat.  #9 Whispering has handled distance before, and she was pushed wide vs. a strong rail when unable to impact her last race.  TFUS Speed Figures of 89 and 90 for her two starts prior to that make her a big player in here.
Selections:  1-3-9-8
Race 9:  #7 Fortunate Sky debuts for George Weaver (100 rating with older first-time starters in maiden claiming races), and gets a perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt as a half to millionaire Musket Man, among others.  Won't need to possess nearly as much talent as that horse to be competitive in this spot.  Rudy Rodriguez had won with 7 first-time starters just dating back to the beginning of the Saratoga meeting, and added an 8th in Thursday's 3rd race, with 6 of them coming in MCL company.  He saddles both #6 Our Posse and #8 Mr. Carmine here.  Of the experienced runners, #4 El Viejo Verde has the speed to continue to be a threat at this level and will find the right field one of these days.  
Selections:  7-4-8-6 

TimeformUS Analysis for January 30

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Friday January 30
Race 1:  They have #5 Samus to beat off 54 TFUS Speed Figure effort on the turn-back to this distance last time.  Has speed and was a clear-cut 2nd best to Florida-shipper Munningsgotmusic.  May be that the best shot against her is first-time starter #1 Dariel.  Trainer is in the midst of a good run, and has won with three of the last ten he has debuted in MCL company, all three of them at good prices.
Selections:  5-1-2-3
Race 2:  #3 Supsa is the one to beat as the likely speed, as Pace Projector indicates that she will be in the driver's seat early.  Thought #1 Just Catty got an over-conservative ride when just a couple of lengths behind Supsa last time, and think she has a legitimate chance to turn the tables on that rival this time, though she will have to sit closer.  #2 Hoopskirt has the back form to get to, but she hasn't been able to find it since returning from a long layoff last October.  Did take a small step forward last time, however.
Selections:  1-3-2-4
Race 3:  Tough to take #7 Xixixi as the ML favorite, as she was badly off form when last seen and returns for $12.5k off the 205-day layoff.  Came up with three solid efforts on the inner last year, but not sure if she remains capable of an effort at that level.  Logical alternative to him is #6 Myth Master, who gets a big class drop for his NY debut and has speed.  #4 Private Irving A has been seen in good form recently, and #3 Okey Dokey Smokey figures to benefit from the turn-back, as well as the class drop, but they will need both of Xixixi and Myth Master to show up with something less than their best.
Selections:  6-7-4-3
Race 4:  #2 Flag On the Play owns the top 2 last out TFUS Speed Figures in the field (92 and 91) and lands in a spot in which 4 of his rivals have made their most recent starts for a claiming tag.  Not thrilled that he has been 2nd best in each of his last three races, but this race represents a solid drop in class for him (last 2 Race Ratings are 97 and 95, vs. today's 85).  #7 Tashreeh finished far behind Flag On the Play in his lone start thus far, but he raced very greenly in that spot and has been back to the drawing board since.  Returns as a new gelding for trainer getting solid 94 rating with second-time starters.  #3 Cosmo Blue also returns from a short layoff for a top trainer.  Already a beaten favorite in three of his four career starts, he faces a tough scenario turning back four furlongs for this.
Selections:  2-7-3-1
Race 5:  #6 Take Issue lost position after being forced to steady out of tight quarters before taking a run to contention through the turn behind a wire-to-wire winner on debut.  Runners from this barn often need a race (97 Trainer Rating with second-time starters), and this one showed enough run first time out to expect some improvement.  #10 Dulce de Leche dropped to this level on New Year's Eve and battled a fast pace all the way before settling for 2nd best to a perfect-trip closer.  She's the horse to beat if she can clear from her outside post, which Pace Projector indicates is likely.  
Selections:  6-10-9-2
Race 6:  #5 Royal Currier is a new addition to this re-drawn race and is a likely unwelcome sight to most of the original entrants.  He takes a big drop in class for this and projects to be the main speed in a race expected to favor runners on or near the early lead.  #3 Piquant returned to form with a solid win two starts back, and he never appeared comfortable when up in class last time in a race dominated on the front end.  Liked his chances quite a bit when this race was originally carded, and still want to use him, but his task has been made tougher by the presence of Royal Currier.  #7 Hurry Up Alan has proven an effective dirt sprinter since arriving in NY, and he will benefit if Royal Currier gets the pace-trackers/chasers working too hard.  Like the turn-back for him off the re-claim by Jacobson.  
Selections:  5-3-7-2
Race 7:  #7 Breakin the Fever got the best of the re-draw for the $125k Rego Park, as he now lands in an outside post after getting the rail for the originally scheduled running last week.  Owns two of the best TFUS Speed Figures in the field, and can rate or run from this post, as required.  #6 Deficit Hawk impressed in 81 TFUS Speed Figure debut, in which he was able to track a contested pace early before overpowering the leaders in the stretch.  Trainer has been nearly unbeatable with first-time starters recently, but he has always been able to get his good ones to keep moving forward.  #5 Regal Minister took the early advantage from Breakin the Fever and never let that rival in when wiring the Notebook Stakes two back, and he will appreciate the turn-back in distance for this.
Selections:  7-6-5-4
Race 8:  #5 Conzig makes second start off the claim for a top trainer (Chris Englehart gets a 97 rating second off the claim) and finds a much easier spot for the level (75 Race Rating, as opposed to the 87 last time) after battling gamely past midstretch last time.  #7 Currency Union drops for her second start off of a short layoff and has a top race that would make her a handful for a horse like Conzig.  
Selections:  5-7-2-4

TimeformUS Analysis for January 29

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday January 29
Race 1:  #4 Appearance caught a sloppy track when returned from a short layoff last time and spent the entire trip chasing down along the deeper inside paths.  Ran well over this trip on the inner last year, and broke her maiden in a two-turn mile at Santa Anita.  #3 Silver Silence gets a positive trainer change for this and may appreciate getting more ground to work with after finding 5.5 furlongs too short last time.  Took advantage of an enterprising pace scenario when pulling off an upset over this distance (one turn) on the main track November 7th, but may not catch that kind of set-up today, according to Pace Projector.
Selections:  4-3-5-2
Race 2:  #1 Live Love Laugh was up against it when off the rail and away from a slow pace on Cigar Mile day's strong rail, and she actually ran quite well off the layoff despite being forced into a wide run from the back of the pack.  Two best races thus far have come off of workouts.  #2 Jubilant Vision contested the pace all the way and came away 2nd best on the drop in NY debut.  Is the speed nearest the inside, and is dangerous if getting early control.  #4 Vision of Mine made clear leads in both starts over the main track here in November, but couldn't hold either time, and she was with the strong rail every step of the way when finishing ahead of Live Love Laugh on November 29th.
Selections:  1-2-5-4
Race 3:  Appears that a new face to this re-drawn race, #6 Third Frontier, will be forced to scratch due to new entry rules preventing a start within 14 days of most recent race.  Perhaps #8 Norm the Giant can show more as he stretches out for an underrated trainer in start #2.  Drops a bit while adding blinkers, and his debut race has already produced a pair of runners who have come back to run well, including runner-up Copernicus, who blew away maidens with ease here last week.  #9 Wild Ham is the field's lone MSW dropper, which makes him of immediate interest.  Had little to offer first time out, and his Breeding Rating of 67 for dirt routes fails to inspire confidence, but the class drop should help him some.  Both #1 X Max (improved suddenly last time) and #7 Igotthediscoinme have speed, and that can make them dangerous, assuming they can avoid each other early.
Selections:  8-9-1-7
Race 4:  Those new entry rules are expected to take a major toll on this race, as 6 of the 8 entered exit a start on January 15th, which seemingly makes them ineligible to run.  That would leave just #4 Painted Poney and #6 Epiphany still standing after scratches.  We won't have much interest in the match race, though Epiphany projects to have more early speed, which would give her a big advantage.
Selections:  No picks
Race 5:  #1 Second City ships across the country off the Jacobson claim (100 rating) after posting his first win in over two years last time.  He's the kind of horse that the good claiming trainers do well with, in that he has the back form to get to, and Jacobson has consistently proven dangerous with the horses he brings in from out of town.  #2 Springcourt has spent time in most of the top claiming barns on the circuit, and he has held good form for all of them.  Drops back down, but he's at his best with some pace to close into, which, according to Pace Projector, could be a problem for him today.  #4 Big Town projects for a better trip up close and goes first off the claim for dangerous owner/trainer combo. 
Selections:  1-4-2-5
Race 6:  #6 Sea Raven goes off the layoff with a trainer change to Leah Gyarmati (100 rating first off trainer change, from a limited sample).  Lightly raced, with handy speed to be up close in a race expected to favor that running style, and his three dirt routes from last year make him a player in here without further improvement.  #2 Fleet First is dangerous second off the layoff with room to improve, as well.  Needs to find early speed of some kind to avoid continuously being compromised by dynamics and trips.  #7 Howaboutwe makes his second start back from a long layoff, as well.  Can have another chance or two after running mostly in the wrong races as a 3yo. 
Selections:  6-2-7-3
Race 7:  Excellent allowance/optional claiming feature for fillies and mores over six furlongs.  #6 Isabelle has found a tough spot in which to return from a layoff, but she appears to be training with a purpose for Bill Mott, and she has flashed plenty of ability to this point.  #4 Blithely earned new career top TFUS Speed Figure of 103 when defeating a strong field (Race Rating 100) to post fourth straight win over this distance.  Projects for the right trip here, rating behind the speed of both Isabelle and the in-form #5 Atlantic's Smile, who has found a home in dirt sprints.  #2 Misszippityslewda has managed just 1 win from her 5 NY starts so far, but she owns speed figures that make her competitive, and she has run better than it may appear in each of her last two starts. 
Selections:  6-4-5-2
Race 8:  #2 Essence At Noon couldn't keep close to a fast pace off the layoff, and he was forced to steady when put in tight after establishing a foothold up with the early pace before the layoff two starts back.  Figures up close in this weak field, and has faced the best competition overall to this point.  #1 Cash Buyer drops for top trainer while cutting back to sprint for the first time.  Hasn't had much to offer in first two starts, and would be tough to take at anything like his ML odds.  #6 Line Move is the lone MSW dropper in the field, and he did show more speed last time at Finger Lakes.  
Selections:  2-1-6-5