Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Wednesday October 29th
Race 1: #1 Julie's Indy drops back down in class while turning back in distance, and she ran better than it may appear in her two prior starts (stumbled and bumped hard at the start before giving game chase to a wire-to-wire winner on September 7; contested pace with a 1/5 favorite on August 17). #6 Mademoiselle Belle had speed but wound up contesting the pace 3-to-4 wide before tiring in her MSW debut. Drops in class, and won't need to improve much in her second start for trainer who gets strong 97 rating with second-time starters.
Race 2: #6 Grandpa Len is not easy to trust at 1-for-24 lifetime, but he has run all of the fastest races in this field and has been against the grain of speed-favoring tracks in his last two starts. Has the speed to be close in a race projected to favor runners up close to the pace. #5 Born in Brooklyn has never come close in three career dirt starts but has never raced this cheaply on the main track, either, and his recent turf form has been OK. #2 Q Two projects to be on the lead in this spot as he drops in price, and his trainer does excellent work with runners at this level.
Race 3: #7 Starago put in a run to contention after early trouble in his debut, and he lost his best chance when getting very rank early last time. Can do better with a clean trip and will be a square price. #2 Massolimo was outrun after a slow start and steadily made up ground throughout the running of his debut. Eligible to improve rapidly for a good trainer. #8 Forever Utopia has been around it seemingly every time without winning. Maybe today's the day, as he projects to be on a clear lead early.
Race 4: #9 Mama Zee was claimed right back by Rudy Rodriguez (98 rating off the claim), and she took the worst of it when contesting a fast pace while three-wide most recently. Has dangerous speed in this spot, as does #8 Here's Zealicious, who is taking a very big class drop after disappointing greatly here 20 days ago. If neither of the top two shows up with her best, #4 Inaflash is best equipped to take advantage.
Race 5: #6 Onthecurve was off slowly and outrun in the early stages of his debut, but was running at the end and finished well. Eligible to improve quickly, and may well have more speed than he was allowed to display first time out. #4 Billypaysthebills gave way over a muddy track first time back from a long layoff. Should be tighter for this one, and he has the speed to be a factor from start to finish in this spot. #2 Eight Cents has run the best figures, but he's also had the most chances, which continues to be a drawback at this level. Has speed, as well.
Race 6: #9 First Whippoorwill has back form to be competitive with this group, and she had little chance to impact drop-down winner Double the Energy when cut back to a sprint at this level last time. Finally back to the right distance, on the right surface and at the right level. #8 Lawless Miss is a bit of a question mark stretching out, but she gets a big class drop here. #5 Edie drops in class off of her first disappointing performance of the year. Switches back to Castellano.
Race 7: #8 Candyman E drops out of a pair of tough races, and he was way against an
inside-speed-favoring track two starts back. Can do better in this race, which is projected to be run at a fast pace. #11 Slan Abhaile
has also landed in a pair of tough spots at this level recently (Race Ratings of 110 and 108), and he can rate from his outside post. #9 Bond Vigilante
may be up against it from a pace perspective as he returns from almost a year on the sidelines, but he has ability, and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating off the layoff.
Race 8: #10 Fuhrious Warrior ran quite a bit better in his debut than his last-place finish may suggest after taking a four-wide run at the lead through the turn. Promising trainer has done better with his second-time starters so far. #11 Blazing Truth did plenty of work in that same race: on the pace all the way while fighting off a host of challengers all through the turn before settling for second best. #5 No Texting improved with lasix and blinkers in his second start and will now get a big rider change for start #3.