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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for November 22

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday November 22nd
Race 1:  #4 Show of Force debuts for Dominick Schettino, who is quietly among the best trainers on the circuit with first-time starters (90 rating with first-time starters in sprints).  Show of Force is a half to the speedy Shot to Win, a two-time winner in NY for these connections.  #8 Awesome Lute had enough trouble in his debut earlier this year to be given some additional chances, and he was re-claimed immediately by these connections.  Drops back down in class and trainer does excellent work turf-to-dirt (97 rating).  #2 Thug Daddy has turned out to be a major disappointment after some 2yo promise.  Has faced better than this, and he was crushed at the break of his last start, which cost him his best chance.  
Selections:  4-8-2-5
Race 2:  No idea if either #1 Tiz Elusive or #6 Hythe Gardens can run, but they are favored on the ML as first-time starters for a reason.  Overall, Ken McPeek, the trainer of Hythe Gardens, does a better job with first-time starters, so we will go there.  Of the ones with experience, #2 Channel of Love hasn't been on fast dirt yet, which could make a difference, and her only start sprinting came in debut vs. The Lewis Dinner.  
Selections:  6-1-2-5
Race 3:  #1 Patriot's Voyage has run the fastest races in this field by far, gets a trainer change to Jacobson for his NY debut (100 rating first with trainer), and has the speed to be up close.  But he will be racing for just the second time in the last 566 days, and returning horses from layoffs is one of the things Jacobson struggles with (61 rating off layoffs overall, and a lowly 19 off this kind of long layoff).  #7 Love to Run tired after cutting a solid pace going longer last time.  He's better going shorter, and he looked good tracking and rolling over a field at this distance two starts back.  #4 Piquant hasn't looked the same since taking a fall at Saratoga, but he has older races that would make him very tough in here, and he is first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez  (98 rating off the claim).  
Selections:  7-1-4-8
Race 4:  #2 Summersault endured a tough trip in Saratoga debut when unable to find room to run in the stretch.  Hasn't been able to get a turf race to go since then, but deserves another chance if we are back on grass for this.  #4 Aussie Prayer was held up behind horses briefly as the winner was breaking things open up front in her debut, but she finished up well once clear.  Appears to have some potential for an excellent trainer.  #10 Sugar Mags was away from a slow pace when outkicked by Aussie Prayer in her debut.  Has the pedigree to turn out ok, and will add lasix for her second start.  #8 Krista's Persona has also had trouble getting turf races to go since her debut back in August, but she has been bringing improved speed to the main track, and those tactics could play well in this field.
Selections:  2-4-10-8
Race 5:  #5 Champagne Ruby has improved this year, and she earned a new TFUS Speed Figure top of 90 for her game effort chasing a fast pace last time.  Doesn't project to have that kind of pace to deal with in this spot, and can land a more comfortable trip tracking up close.  #7 Vicki's Dancer also chased that fast pace at Finger Lakes last time, and she has paired up 90 TFUS Speed Figures since switching back to dirt.  #6 Sunny Desert has run the best races overall, but she has been a disappointment since returning from a long layoff this year.  Like her better sprinting, but she can't have many more chances after this.  
Selections:  5-7-6-9
Race 6:  6th features the return of #8 Honor Code, winner of the Grade 2 Remsen and runner-up in the Grade 1 Champagne as a 2yo.  He's talented, but just starting back from a long layoff and will likely be looking for longer races down the line.  #2 Maleeh is also returning from a long layoff, but he's more of a sprint type, and he has flashed real ability  in his brief career.  Spotlight Figure of 109 is equal to that of Honor Code as tops in the field, and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating off of this kind of layoff.  With plenty of speed signed on to this race, we'll also include #10 Sam Sparkle, who can close from off the pace and has earned three straight 100+ TFUS Speed Figures for a solid trainer.
Selections:  2-8-10-5
Race 7:  #9 Idle American endured a very tough trip when returned from a layoff here last month, running quite a bit better than his 9th-place finish would indicate.  He has posted all 3 career wins over this turf course, and he can put his field-best Late Pace Rating of 83 to good use here, as Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap.  #10 Shatak disappointed at Keeneland most recently, but we've seen horses perform below their best over that course before, and his prior effort in NY was a solid effort.  #8 Asset Inflation earned a big TFUS Speed Figure of 105 when taking third straight off the claim for Maker last time.  Has to stretch out and may not be suited to the expected dynamics, but he has been in raging form.  
Selections:  9-10-4-8
Race 8:  We've been chasing #1 West Hills Giant all year, and he has run well in some tough spots without winning.  He should have some pace to close into in this spot, and he's the horse to beat today.  #6 Readthebyline is a dangerous speed off the re-claim by Nevin/Scuderi.  Think he's better as a router, and that big win in his lone start for these connections (110 TFUS Speed Figure) came with the benefit of a gold rail.  #7 Gridley Here has clearly found his niche as a dirt horse, and he has been impressive in easily closing down allowance foes in his last two starts.  May be ready to take this step.  
Selections:  7-1-6-4
Race 9:  #6 Shetan found 1 1/2 miles too far at Saratoga two back, and he was compromised while trying to close into a slow pace last time.  Class drop for this.  #4 Cheyenne Nation is still rolling along at age 8, finishing 1st in three of his last four.  Entered right back for $25k after being DQ'd at Laurel last time.  #10 Here's Johnny drops again for Jacobson after failing to hold a stretch lead last time.  Think he may be better from off the pace, and he will likely be taking back from his outside post.
Selections:  6-4-10-2

TimeformUS Analysis for November 21

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Friday November 21st
Race 1:  #5 Qui C'est Moi tired after chasing favored Boss Daddy on a fast pace off the layoff, and was taken out of that race by a top claiming outfit.  New trainer has been on a good run, winning with 10 of her last 39 starters, and Qui C'est Moi had been running TFUS Speed Figures prior to the layoff that are in line with what ML favorite #3 Mischieviously had been running when in top form.  #2 Heading to Boca did not handle the wet track when last seen at Belmont, but he is lightly raced and may be able to take a step forward on fast dirt for a very good trainer.  
Selections:  5-2-3-4
Race 2:  #5 Le Deluge is heavily favored on the ML for Jacobson after narrow miss to the streaking Socialsaul here opening weekend.  He is in the best recent form of these but does not hold much of an edge assuming they all show up with their best races.  We'll try to beat him with #7 Seeker, who is dropping in class with some recent excuses in tow.  He was wide on a gold-rail day at Saratoga most recently, and he was given an odd ride when giving away early position to a front-running winner two back.  He has speed, will get the mile, and is 3-for-3 on the Aqueduct main.  
Selections:  7-5-6-3
Race 3:  #5 Manoffire returned sprinting off the layoff, and he wound up boxed in behind horses all the way through the turn as a fast pace developed out front.  Finished well once clear, but it was too late, and he will appreciate getting stretched back out in distance.  #1 Forever Utopia, #9 Talladega and #10 Blue Shark all exit the 3rd race from October 29th, which was won by the filly Graceful Gal.  None of them ran particularly well in that spot, but they fit well in this field.
Selections:  5-1-9-10
Race 4:  #9 Pierce's Prize made a promising debut while contesting the pace between a pair of Chad Brown runners (one now a stakes winner, the other multiple stakes placed), and he was caught contesting a fast pace (note pace figures/fractions shaded in red) in a race that collapsed in his second start.  Back to a better spot here after the stakes try last time, and he's drawn well on the outside.  #1 David Rocks controlled a slow pace on debut before being run over by the talented Tizquick at the end.  Owns top TFUS Speed Figure in the field for that effort (83), and is clearly eligible for better with experience.  #2 Helicity and #4 Possilicious are interesting firsters, both with some fast works showing.
Selections:  9-1-4-2
Race 5:  A lot going on here, with several class-droppers entered, including #1 Financial Mogul.  Once just a couple of lengths behind Cairo Prince when 2nd in the Grade 2 Nashua, things haven't gone so well for him this year.  He's supposed to be tough at this level, but he lacks early speed, and Pace Projector places him up against it in that regard.  #6 Sun Storm ran very well when earning a 91 TFUS Speed Figure in debut, then hit the sidelines for over 400 days after just one more race.  Makes his third start back from that long layoff, gets a drop in class, and projects for a nice trip tracking the pace from the outside.  #7 Sunlover may not be quite as good on dirt as he is on turf, but he ran a remarkable race last time to get 3rd after completely missing the break and spotting the field several lengths.  
Selections:  6-1-7-4
Race 6:  #6 Birchwood Road was done in by his far outside post most recently, as he had to give away position in order to save ground, and he was never going to be able to impact late in a race that was holding together up front.  Effort two back over yielding ground is among the best of his career (earned new top TFUS Speed Figure of 83), and he posted a big maiden win over this course around this time last year.  #10 March Reward has dangerous speed and a rider who knows how to use it, and he has been running competitive speed figures right along.  #9 Mental Iceberg was rated back after an alert start last time, and he wound up catching some traffic before failing to fire hard in the stretch.  We have always thought he had some potential, so perhaps the class drop will help.  
Selections:  6-10-9-8
Race 7:  #8 Damage Control gets a solid overall Breeding Rating of 88 for dirt racing, and he is out of a stakes-placed dam who is herself a sister to the multiple stakes winning Friend or Foe, who was a debut winner for these connections a few years ago.  Trainer has had a good year with his 2yos and does a solid job with first-time starters overall (83 rating).  #2 Andrew's Got Zip didn't break sharply from the gate in his debut, but he had good speed thereafter to rush forward to contest the pace before tiring.  Can do better with that one behind him.  #7 Masons Dream has run the best races so far and is the horse to beat.  #6 Summer Hawk contested the pace and was tiring when forced to steady at the top of the stretch first time out.  Gets lasix and switches to Rosario for start #2.
Selections:  8-2-7-6
Race 8:  With our Pace Projector indicating that a fast pace may be in play for this race, we went looking for closers.  Both #4 Keen Katana and #6 G Note closed from behind a quick pace when 2nd and 4th in the finale on October 19th.  Keen Katana had the better trip of the two, with G Note caught up behind horses for much of the run through the stretch, and G Note will be a better price.  #3 Graceful Gal overpowered males to break her maiden over this course with a solid TFUS Speed Figure of 84, closing into a fast pace.  
Selections:  6-4-3-5
Race 9:  #9 Pitched has proven herself to be an effective closing sprinter since being claimed by these connections, and she was competitive to mid-stretch in NY two back before flattening out going longer.  #3 Literata dropped down to break her maiden in the slop last time.  Lightly raced 3yo filly holds all the upside, and her trainer has been red-hot since racing has shifted to Aqueduct.  #4 Zimbabwe Lady and #5 Charming Eyes are logical contenders for sharp trainers, but we don't need them at short prices.  
Selections:  9-3-4-5

Big Apple Babies for Thursday November 20 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Thursday, November 20, 2014
Race 2, 2-year-old fillies, 1 mile, off-the-turf, 12:49pm

CHAPEL (dark bay/brown filly, Pulpit – Owsley, by Harlan) is the sixth foal out of a multiple-graded stakes winner of over $860,000. Owsley broke her maiden in her debut, as a January three-year-old, on the dirt but achieved the vast majority of her success on the lawn. Her victories included the G2 Winstar Galaxy and G2 New York Handicap. Four prior runners have won, including a trio of stakes horses. The first, War Hoot (War Chant), earned over $220,000 and was third in the PTHA President’s Cup going 1 1/8 on the turf. Fellow turf router Senada, a full sister to Chapel, earned just a shade less, $215,000, but was the winner of the Dowager Stakes and Keeneland and was graded stakes placed on two occasions. Owsley’s leading earner is Arthur’s Tale (Bernardini), a two-time Aqueduct dirt winner who finished second in the G1 Wood Memorial and third in the G2 Brooklyn Handicap. Chapel is also a full sister to Remember Then, who swept her first three lifetime starts, including a fall two-year-old debut, two on all-weather and one on dirt.

Owner: Stone Farm
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Jockey: Manuel Franco



* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction


TimeformUS Analysis for November 20

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday November 20th
Race 1:  #3 Guggenheim has run the three fastest TFUS Speed Figures on dirt in this field (88-93-93 in his three career starts), and he rallied gamely once getting away from the slower inside paths most recently.  #1 Hollywood Idol is just starting back after a long layoff with a trainer change.  Debut way back in December of 2013 was far from a poor effort.  #6 Street Babe is a half to a coupe of multiple winners, including a Grade 3 stakes winner, and debuts for a trainer off to a hot start here.
Selections:  3-1-6-2
Race 2:  With turf racing on a day-to-day basis at this point, we will just have to wait and see as far as scratches and changes are concerned.  This is an interesting race if we are indeed on the grass.  It features #10 Complicated, who came within a nose of defeating the monstrous 2yo Lady Eli at Saratoga.  She did so with a perfect trip, however, and Lady Eli was able to overcome trouble to defeat her, and it's fair to wonder where Complicated has been since August 25th.  #6 Strict Compliance finished gamely while falling just short of catching favored All in Fun first time out.  Chad Brown has been winning with 2yo first-time starters all year on the turf, but he also pulls a perfect 100 rating with his second-time starters.  #1 Been Here Before was far back early when finishing behind Strict Compliance first time out, but she raced on through the stretch and can do better second time from a more favorable draw.  
Selections:  1-6-10-7
Race 3:  #4 Coast of Sangria has been holding solid form for an array of trainers all year, and she did a lot of racing while contesting the pace between horses before succumbing to a pair of perfect-trip closers last time.  #6 Darling Bridezilla has races that will make her a handful in here, and Jacobson tends to do particularly well with claims and trainer changes (100 ratings), but it's been 251 days since he reached in for this one.  #2 Matching Skies is competitive with her best race, but she is at her best up to 6 furlongs.  
Selections:  4-6-2-3
Race 4:  Plenty of speed signed on to this $20k claiming sprint for NY-breds, and this has our Pace Projector lighting up red in anticipation of a fast pace.  #8 So Scott is the best closer in the race by a clear margin (96 Late Pace Rating towers over the rest, with the next highest being #5 Star of New York's 69).  He's dropping off the layoff but has come back running off a break before.  #10 N. F.'s Destiny has been a committed speed for most of his career, but he was rated into a tracking position last time off the Jacobson claim, and he has drawn well on the outside to try those tactics once again.  #2 Won Great Classic closes gamely when right, and he figures to be the right kind of price in here as he makes his second start off of a short layoff.
Selections:  8-10-2-1
Race 5:  #5 Irish Jasper didn't break sharply from the gate, but she flashed good speed thereafter and buried maidens first time out at Parx.  Attracts Castellano for this, but that will hurt her price, and this isn't the kind of race where we'll be taking a short one.  #3 Omagoddonna dropped in class and switched to dirt to post convincing maiden win over #6 She's Marvy, who would come right back to win her next start.  New trainer isn't especially strong right off the claim, but he'll get the best out of his horses in the long run.  #8 Captain Munnings was also a strong maiden winner on the drop, and she has drawn well on the outside.  Others have run better figures to this point, but #2 Jumelaka may be fastest of these early, and that alone makes her a danger. 
Selections:  8-5-3-2
Race 6:  Late Pick 4 kicks off with a full field set to travel one mile on the main track.  Our Pace Projector indicates that there will be a fast early pace, which figures to suit #4 Giant Fox.  He has been a reliable closer all along, and he gained gamely while against the grain of a speed-favoring track last time.  #7 Sean and Matt is a tough call here, so we'll let price determine our course of action.  He rode a gold rail to a big win two starts back, and he had a decent set-up when closing well from far back last time.  But he also had major trouble when crashed hard at the break in that last race, and did well to finish as close as he did.  #1 Againsome has raced on well in both starts since claimed by Linda Rice, and is another who can benefit from contested fractions.
Selections:  4-7-1-8
Race 7:  #1 Zandar stepped up his game second time out, sitting a perfect trip before going on to a convincing score.  Backed that race up quite well in stakes try over yielding ground last time, and has the right post to deploy his tactical speed once again.  #2 Moon River was green, but also clearly best winning debut in turf sprint.  Has the kind of easy speed to make the front here on the stretch-out.  #7 Ode to the Hunt has finished strongly in pair of starts to date, and owns the top Late Pace Rating in the field (75).  
Selections:  1-2-7-8
Race 8:  #4 Girlaboutown paired up TFUS Speed Figures of 94 in back-to-back wins upstate, the second of those despite stumbling badly at the start.  She was up against it last time when chasing front-running Carameaway from the outside on a day when the rail was strong.  #6 Canal Six kept a solid pace in range and rolled over a weaker field with a new top figure last month.  Still improving for a good barn, and will be closing through the stretch.  #5 Official has parlayed a pair of perfect trips into victories in her last two races on dirt, but neither of them earned TFUS Speed Figures that make her particularly scary, and she seems to be a shorter price who is worth being against in this spot.
Selections:  4-6-1-3
Race 9:  #4 Perfect Dancing was pulled up early after an awkward start when last seen at Saratoga, but his race at this level on June 4th was solid, and he finished well into a tough set-up two starts back.  #1 Massolimo drops immediately off of no-show effort here opening day, but 75 TFUS Speed Figure earned in debut makes him a handful in here.  #8 Celebrate We Will worked a clean trip and raced on steadily to get a piece in turf debut last time.  Has the advantage of being lightly raced.  #7 Risk the Moon put in a mild run from far back when behind Celebrate We Will in debut.  Adds lasix for second start. 
Selections:  4-1-8-7