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TimeformUS Race Analysis

 

 

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TimeformUS Analysis for October 31

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

 
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TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Halloween
 
 
Race 1:  Field of 7 requires some guesswork with 5 first-time starters in the mix.  #3 Masons Dream has the experience, which is a plus, but that debut effort had a mirage-like quality to it, as Masons Dream didn't appear to be doing much running through the stretch before appearing suddenly on the outside to miss an unlucky bob.  Think that race fell apart at the end, so will look to one of the firsters.  We'll take #6 Disco Partner on top, as he is from a family of prolific winners, including Bass River Road, a half-brother to this horse who won his debut over this track last November at a big price.  We'll also use #2 No More Options (88 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints), a half to the stakes-winning sprinter Bellacourt.  #5 Fear is 2/1 on the ML for Tony Dutrow, who gets a below average rating of 59 with first-time starters. 
 
Selections:  6-2-3-5
 
Race 2:  #1 Stephen A enters off of back-to-back dismal performances, but likely didn't want any part of 9 furlongs at Saratoga two back ,and he reportedly bled in his last race.  2014 dirt form prior to that makes him a handful in here.  #4 Socialsaul and #7 Le Deluge are both contenders for Jacobson, the former back on the beam first time off the claim, the latter dropping in class after trying 1 1/4 miles vs. tougher last time. 
 
Selections:  1-7-4-6
 
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Race 3:  #1 One More Chief lands in the right spot cutting back a bit with 4 straight TFUS Speed Figures between 83 and 89, and Pace Projector likes his chances of pulling the right trip.  #2 Salisbury Knight seems the logical alternative in this field, though he has yet to run fast enough to defeat One More Chief, assuming that one brings his best.
 
Selections:  1-2-3-4
 
Race 4:  #12 Summer Forever made her debut in a tough spot behind recent stakes winner Miss Chatelaine, and she endured a tough trip that day when forced to try to circle the field from last.  Forget about the recent dirt try; she deserves another chance back on grass.  #7 Twist 'n Bake was forced to concede to a longshot after looking for the early lead in her debut, but she raced on gamely through the stretch in a promising debut.  Won't hold the sprint try over yielding ground against her.  #5 Coral Beach raced very greenly before picking it up late and then galloping out strongly in her debut, but failed to back that race up in her second start.  Switches to turf for this with some pedigree as a half to a turf winner (80 Breeding Rating for turf routes). 
 
Selections:  12-7-5-9
 
Race 5:  #1A Fiona's Hero drops in class and turns back for a top trainer after racing along a dead rail throughout sloppy mile last time.  Had strung together a series of mid-90s speed figures prior to that, and has handled this distance well in the past.  #4 Goodtolook also turns back while dropping in class.  Going to be tough if bringing one of those triple-digit TFUS Speed Figures he was running on dirt over the summer prior to being listed as a vet scratch onSeptember 28th.  #3 Reggie D has displayed more positional speed recently, and he had trouble getting clear to run after looming dangerously when behind #5 Hurry Up Alan last time.
 
Selections:  1A-5-3-10
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Race 6:  #6 Stay in Front will have to stretch out, but she did well to keep after a quick pace and then close it down off a 382-day layoff last time, and she is first off the claim for the dangerous Mike Maker (97 rating).  #9 Winner's Legacy is no great shakes at a shorter price, but she fits well in this field and may have enough pace out front to give her her best chance.  #4 Lady Luciano stepped up to a new top figure of 84 off the claim, and she projects for the right trip tracking along the inside in this race.  #5 Wine Burglar is also off the claim, and her new trainer gets them to perform right away (98 rating off the claim).   
 
Selections:  6-9-4-5
 
Race 7:  #2 Misconnect began his career with promise for Pletcher, but he blew a pair of perfect-trip chances in stakes company before heading to the sidelines.  Starts back in the right kind of race off the trainer change.  #1 Mosler was taken well out into the track to stay away from odds-on Bay of Plenty (8/5 ML favorite for the Grade 3 Discovery on Saturday), and was no match for him anyway when settling for 2nd best.  Still earned new TFUS Speed Figure top of 99, and he projects to be in control of the pace from his inside post.  #3 Scarly Charly has run the fastest races to this point, and he has tried some tougher spots, as well.  He's the horse to beat if he can overcome the pace.  
 
Selections:  2-1-3-7
 
Race 8:  #8 Mr. Vegas takes the class drop at age 7 after knocking heads with far superior stock over the past few years.  Found the cut-back to 5.5 furlongs too sharp last time, but this is better.  #7 Short Shrift has returned from a layoff as an 8yo this year to post TFUS Speed Figures of 98-100-97-102.  Any one of those races makes him tough in here, if he wheels back on short rest.  #10 Admiral Perry dropped down last time and ran his race to finish 4th, beaten less than a length.  Always puts in a run, but has some hang in him.
 
Selections:  8-7-10-11
 
Race 9:  #6 No Nukes is tough to take on top at 0-for-20, but he's put up three recent speed figures in the 70s, which is a level none of his rivals has managed to attain.  Now or never.  #5 Campion Lane has the speed to be a forward factor, an advantage in a race like this one.  #2 Patrolikeachampion's lone dirt start came over a speed-favoring track at Calder in his debut, and he has been campaigned exclusively on turf since.  Not the worst stab in the world in a field like this. 
 
Selections:  6-5-2-1black-white-TFUS-logo_copy
 
 

TimeformUS Analysis for October 30

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday October 30th
 
 
Race 1:  #1 Tradesman and  #1A Frosted make a formidable entry, each coming off of 92 TFUS Speed Figure efforts in different races most recently.  Of the two, we prefer Frosted at this point, but Tradesman is eligible to step it up, and he will get lasix for the first time.  #3 To Dare raced on well to land a piece in his first start, and his trainer tends to get better performances out of his second-time starters.  #4 Gold Shield and #5 Aldrin each brought big money at auction, but they will have to run better than they have to this point in order to defeat this field.  
 
Selections:  1/1A-3-5-4
 
Race 2:  #8 False Positive had little chance vs. the impressive Ostrolenka first time out, and he may appreciate getting back to dirt while dropping in class.  Trainer has done well from few attempts with 2yos wheeling back quickly in MCL company (93 rating).   Not a bad spot for firster #3 Fit to Keep to make his debut, as the top TFUS Speed Figure earned by any of his competitors on dirt so far is the 49 put up by #1 Essence of Noon in a 27-length defeat.  He gets a strong Breeding Rating of 88 for dirt sprints, and his trainer, while no ace with first-time starters, can win with one (64 rating).  #4 Space Cowboys flashed good speed and lasted for 3rd in turf sprint debut, and he had little chance when outpaced over a speed- favoring track last time.  Drops in class for the first time for this.  
 
Selections:  8-3-4-5
 
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Race 3:  We've been waiting for #3 Mop Head to get a turn-back in distance, and he managed to run his race (95 TFUS Speed Figure) the only time he sprinted on dirt in his career, which came in a much tougher spot (Race Rating of 102, vs. today's 94).  #6 Shore Runner appeared uncomfortable with the muddy going in the early stages and was outrun before gathering some momentum and finishing well last time.  Has handled fast dirt in the past, and projects for a good trip tracking up close to the pace.  #7 Joking is better suited to sprinting on the dirt, so he will appreciate this surface switch along with the drop in class.  
 
Selections:  3-6-7-1A
 
Race 4:  He won't get another chance from us, but #9 Hushhushmushmush has endured tough trips in each of his starts at this level and has a top race that would be too much for these horses.  #2 Luv Dakota Skye was left in to try off-the-turf sprint on the drop last week, but he has competitive turf form, and this will be his first start on the drop on turf.  #11 Sole Train went evenly over yielding ground at this level last time.  Prior start for this tag was a solid effort at Saratoga.
 
Selections:  9-2-11-10
 
Race 5:  #4 Pura Vida Zen switches back to dirt after failed turf experiment for his new trainer, who gets a strong 98 rating going turf to dirt.  Dirt form is competitive, and she projects for a nice trip up close along the inside.  #1 Off My Cloud dropped in class and posted new career-top TFUS Speed Figure of 87 in her last start.  Similar effort makes her competitive here for trainer who has been heating up a bit after a slow summer.  #7 My Place turns back and drops in class after catching a muddy track first off the claim.  Has a nice outside post and tractable speed. 
 
Selections:  4-7-1-5
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Race 6:  #1 Social Affair has posted TFUS Speed Figures of 90 and 94 for his last two starts, a level that his rivals in this spot have yet to attain, save his entrymate, #1A Magnolia Lane.  He has the speed, and is unlikely to find a much better spot than this one.  #6 Spoiler Alert is a new face worth a look in this spot as he cuts back in distance for a very good trainer.  Blinkers on.  #8 Strum had little to offer on the main track to this point.  Perhaps he'll show more on turf, for which he has a solid Breeding Rating of 88.
 
Selections:  1/1A-6-8-9
 
Race 7:  #2 Voodoo Tales was in career form this summer, posting TFUS Speed Figures of 95 and 102 in back-to-back blowout wins.  Caught a tough field in first start back from a short break, but this is better.  #7 Expression started back last month in preparation for another winter run, and she figures to have gotten plenty out of that return after showing uncharacteristic early speed.  #6 Alwaysthinkinofyou has dangerous speed and is lightly raced enough to project further improvement, which she will need.
 
Selections:  2-7-6-5
 
Race 8:  #4 Pep the Champ closed gamely at this level before coming up just short last time, but he may have more pace to close into this time, and he was an impressive winner with that scenario two starts back.  #9 Belly of the Whale is clearly a contender in this spot, and he will appreciate having some pace to run at, which seems like a strong possibility in this field.  #12 Birchwood Road came through with a career-best effort most recently, and can contend here at a price with a similar performance.  Prefers some give in the ground.  
 
Selections:  4-12-9-1
 
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Big Apple Babies for Thursday, October 30, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Thursday, October 30,2014

Race 1, 2-year-olds, 1 mile, dirt, 1:00pm

HIGH MINDED (bay colt, Congrats – Geographic, by Empire Maker) is the third foal from the dam of two winners. Geographic is a daughter of Dokki, making her a half-sister to $1.8 million-earner Aptitude. The son of A.P. Indy took both the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) as a four-year-old, in addition to runner-up performances in both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1). Dokki is also the dam of G1 Hollywood Oaks winner Sleep Easy, a ¾-sister to Aptitude.

Owner: Juddmonte Farms
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Manuel Franco


Notes: Gunlock’s second dam, Hollywood Picture, won the G3 Santa Ysabel.

 

ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

TimeformUS Analysis for October 29

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Wednesday October 29th
 
Race 1:  #1 Julie's Indy drops back down in class while turning back in distance, and she ran better than it may appear in her two prior starts (stumbled and bumped hard at the start before giving game chase to a wire-to-wire winner on September 7; contested pace with a 1/5 favorite on August 17).  #6 Mademoiselle Belle had speed but wound up contesting the pace 3-to-4 wide before tiring in her MSW debut.  Drops in class, and won't need to improve much in her second start for trainer who gets strong 97 rating with second-time starters.   
 
Selections:  1-6-7-2
 
 
Race 2:  #6 Grandpa Len is not easy to trust at 1-for-24 lifetime, but he has run all of the fastest races in this field and has been against the grain of speed-favoring tracks in his last two starts.  Has the speed to be close in a race projected to favor runners up close to the pace.  #5 Born in Brooklyn has never come close in three career dirt starts but has never raced this cheaply on the main track, either, and his recent turf form has been OK.  #2 Q Two projects to be on the lead in this spot as he drops in price, and his trainer does excellent work with runners at this level.  
 
Selections:  5-6-2-4 
 
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Race 3:  #7 Starago put in a run to contention after early trouble in his debut, and he lost his best chance when getting very rank early last time.  Can do better with a clean trip and will be a square price.  #2 Massolimo was outrun after a slow start and steadily made up ground throughout the running of his debut.  Eligible to improve rapidly for a good trainer.  #8 Forever Utopia has been around it seemingly every time without winning.  Maybe today's the day, as he projects to be on a clear lead early.
 
Selections:  7-2-8-5
 
 
Race 4:  #9 Mama Zee was claimed right back by Rudy Rodriguez (98 rating off the claim), and she took the worst of it when contesting a fast pace while three-wide most recently.  Has dangerous speed in this spot, as does #8 Here's Zealicious, who is taking a very big class drop after disappointing greatly here 20 days ago.  If neither of the top two shows up with her best, #4 Inaflash is best equipped to take advantage.  
 
Selections:  9-8-4-3
 
 
Race 5:  #6 Onthecurve was off slowly and outrun in the early stages of his debut, but was running at the end and finished well.  Eligible to improve quickly, and may well have more speed than he was allowed to display first time out.  #4 Billypaysthebills gave way over a muddy track first time back from a long layoff.  Should be tighter for this one, and he has the speed to be a factor from start to finish in this spot.  #2 Eight Cents has run the best figures, but he's also had the most chances, which continues to be a drawback at this level.  Has speed, as well. 
 
Selections:  6-4-2-1
 
 
Race 6:  #9 First Whippoorwill has back form to be competitive with this group, and she had little chance to impact drop-down winner Double the Energy when cut back to a sprint at this level last time.  Finally back to the right distance, on the right surface and at the right level.  #8 Lawless Miss is a bit of a question mark stretching out, but she gets a big class drop here.  #5 Edie drops in class off of her first disappointing performance of the year.  Switches back to Castellano.  
 
Selections:  9-8-5-2
 
Race 7:  #8 Candyman E drops out of a pair of tough races, and he was way against an 
 
TFUSBCPackage300x250inside-speed-favoring track two starts back.   Can do better in this race, which is projected to be run at a fast pace. #11 Slan Abhaile has also landed in a pair of tough spots at this level recently (Race Ratings of 110 and 108), and he can rate from his outside post.  #9 Bond Vigilante may be up against it from a pace perspective as he returns from almost a year on the sidelines, but he has ability, and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating off the layoff.
 
Selections:  8-11-9-3
 
 
Race 8:  #10 Fuhrious Warrior ran quite a bit better in his debut than his last-place finish may suggest after taking a four-wide run at the lead through the turn.  Promising trainer has done better with his second-time starters so far.  #11 Blazing Truth did plenty of work in that same race: on the pace all the way while fighting off a host of challengers all through the turn before settling for second best.  #5 No Texting improved with lasix and blinkers in his second start and will now get a big rider change for start #3. 
 
Selections:  10-11-5-7
 
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