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TimeformUS Race Analysis

 

 

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Mike will be back in action Jan 1

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

Happy Holidays and see you here in 2015!

 

TimeformUS Analysis for December 15

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Monday December 15th
 
 
Race 1:  #1 Aleander had no speed when returned from a layoff over a sloppy track, but he was rallying through the stretch along the rail to just miss 2nd behind an impressive winner.  Earned a layover 90 TFUS Speed Figure for that effort and makes second start for Jacobson while dropping in class.  #6 Tapin Mojo may be the main threat, but he had a perfect trip away from a contested pace before coming up short last time, and he is up in class off the claim.  #8 Identity Crisis handles distance well and can factor late if some pace develops.
 
Selections:  1-8-6-5
 
Race 2:  #2 What the Frost drops back to the level of the claim for a good trainer after getting caught up contesting the pace last time.  Has run some of the fastest races in this field and can be effective from a stalking position.  #7 My Jopia also drops in class, and she is equally effective on turf or dirt.  Earned  solid 90 TFUS Speed Figure for last start on the main track.  #3 Here's Zealicious went off form for several starts earlier in the year, but she re-found her form once dropped to a lower level and enters here looking for her third straight win.  New trainer is off to a good start on the inner.
 
Selections:  2-7-3-4
 
Race 3:  #3 Real Estate Rich is a closing sprinter, and he finds a field here with plenty of speed signed on to set up his late run.  Goes first off the claim for a talented trainer after getting wired in each of his last two starts at this level.  #2 Regulus finished gamely after a front-running winner over a sloppy track last time for Jacobson.  He will also benefit from any pace that develops and has a typical race that makes him tough.  #5 Indy Sea drops back down after trying tougher in the slop last month.  Defeated a much weaker bunch two starts back, but it earned him a competitive TFUS Speed Figure of 95, and he is also going to appreciate seeing some pace out in front.
 
Selections:  3-2-5-8
 
Race 4:  #2 Talladega may wind up being a horse who needs turf to run his best, but we are willing to give him another chance on dirt after his very wide trip last time.  Trainer won six races during the last inner track meet, and sent out a longshot winner here the other day.  #5 Forever Utopia is tough to take on top, having posted 8 runner-up finishes from 15 career starts, but he can run his race on dirt and owns the fastest races.  #4 Ziggy Moondust projects to be the clear speed as he stretches out for the first time.  #8 Full of Mine outfinished Ziggy Moondust for 2nd last time going shorter.  Has the pedigree to stretch out, and is lightly raced.
 
Selections:  2-5-4-8
 
Race 5:  #7 A Prettydixie has focused on turf racing for much of the year, but we think she's a much better dirt horse, and she is effective over sprint distances.  Projects to have a fast pace out in front of her today, and she can take advantage.  #6 Star Magnolia may find it tough to deal with the expected fast pace, but she consistently runs competitive figures, and she was stuck down on the rail all the way last time, which was not a good place to be.  #4 South Sound has proven expensive to follow, having lost 5 of her last 6 at 2/1 or less, and she's another speed, but she is also one of the fastest horses in the race, and her new trainer is off to a good start here.  #11 Start It Up goes for low-percentage connections, but she has closed effectively in the past, and that style will play well in this field.  
 
Selections:  7-6-4-11
 
Race 6:  Both #3 Court Dancer (first time lasix today) and #8 Sheriffa are players in this race, but they are horses we are trying to beat, assuming they are shorter prices.  #9 Rock N Cozy was off slowly and left with little chance to impact a runaway winner last time.  Turns back making second start off the claim for David Jacobson.  #2 Nonnie Connie chased that impressive winner before fading behind Rock N Cozy last time.  She will also appreciate the turn-back in distance for this and may be a much more interesting price.  #4 Jazzminegem impressed when rolling over favored Loomin' Lori Lou to break her maiden in second career start, and she was a game second-best with a new TFUS Speed Figure top before hitting the sidelines.  Still holds upside, which cannot be said for the top two.
 
Selections:  2-9-3-4
 
Race 7:  #11 Huge Asset will be outside should he draw in, but he has two-turn form and positional speed.  Earned new TFUS Speed Figure top of 89 in first start off the claim for this trainer.  #10 Pax in Terra will have to be ready off the layoff, but this is the right kind of field if he is, and he was running speed figures that are competitive with these as an early-season 3yo.  #6 Bambisfrostyracer improved to a new top figure first off the layoff, and his trainer tends to get improvement out of her horses with racing.
 
Selections:  11-10-6-7
 
Race 8:  #1 Monster Mash will have to work out a trip from the rail, but he has been in career-best form since switching to dirt and exits a much tougher race for the level last time.  #3 Power World is an interesting claim coming back to dirt with highly competitive back form.  Has been more of a speed-type throughout his career, which may be tough on him in this spot, with Pace Projector indicating that a fast pace is coming.  #10 Big Guy Ian was buried by Monster Mash two starts back and parlayed a candy trip into an easy win last time, but he got the best of the draw and projects for the right trip.
 
Selections:  1-3-10-5
 
Race 9:  Difficult to advocate for betting real money on anyone in bottom-level MCL finale.  #4 Scully has had little to offer since returning from an extended layoff, but he's third back now after catching a pair of wet tracks, and he has a race in his past that would win this.  Not a bad race for a new face, which makes it easy to take a shot with firster #10 Beau Madre, who debuts for an underrated trainer.  #7 Perfect Dancing has no speed, which will continue to be a problem, but he has finished up with interest more than once.  
 
Selections:  4-10-7-8
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TimeformUS Analysis for December 14

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday December 14th
 
 
Race 1:  #5 Oh Poggibonsi gave futile chase to an impressive front-running winner last time, but Pace Projector places him in early control this time.  Already owns two of the top TFUS Speed Figures in the field.  #1A Mr. Amos was also in that November 23rd race, and he tried an outside run from off the pace to no avail.  Faced much better than this in two prior starts, and he looked good breaking his maiden at Monmouth despite a wide trip.  #3 Leverage will need to improve from a speed figure standpoint, but he is clearly eligible to do so in just his second career start, and he was a game winner first time out.
 
Selections:  5-1A-3-4
 
Race 2:  #7 Kibble was in an impossible situation in lone dirt start, racing greenly while wide and last over an inside-speed-favoring track.  Has improved on turf since then, and trainer excels with runners switching from turf to dirt (100 rating).  #3 Gabby's Brown has flashed speed while simply being out-paced on the lead by faster horses in each of her first two starts.  Projects to make the front this time as she stretches out for the first time, and may prove tough to catch.  #6 Fiery Cat gets a trainer change to Kiaran McLaughlin (99 rating), who is also listed as owner.  Has valuable two-turn experience in the form of Keeneland runner-up effort with a 65 TFUS Speed Figure.  
 
Selections:  7-3-6-2
 
Race 3:  #3 My Super Nova is a question mark stretching out, but talented filly owns the top two TFUS Speed Figures in the field and a solid Breeding Rating of 91 for dirt routes.  Lost all chance when stumbling badly at the break last time, but she defeated a strong rival in Sonora one start prior, and she came back to break her maiden impressively with a speed figure of 89.  #6 Building Permit is already a route winner, and she was up against it when rating off of a slow pace last time.  Pace Projector indicates that there will be plenty of pace for her to close into this time.  
 
Selections:  3-6-5-2
 
Race 4:  #3 Perchance is likely to attract plenty of action at the windows considering her pedigree.  She is the third foal from the multiple Grade 1-winning Dream Rush, and the first two, Dreaming of Julia and Atreides, are fast stakes winners.  #12 Lil Lady Big Purse is also well-bred (her dam is a sister to the multiple Grade 1 winner Surfside, and out of Flanders), and she debuts for an underrated trainer with first-time starters.  McLaughlin's other firster, #10 Fortress, is a half to the talented Bay of Plenty, and she appears to have worked in company with Perchance on December 1st.
 
Selections:  12-3-10-2
 
Race 5:  #6 Hurry Up Alan has earned competitive TFUS Speed Figures in both dirt starts since arriving in NY, and he figures to have no problem with the stretch out, considering that he has posted 5 of his 7 career wins over this distance.  #3 North Ocean took advantage of a loose lead last time, but he has strong back races to get to, and he projects to be the clear speed once again.  #2 Dan and Sheila has held form while going 0-for-11 so far this year.  Owns a win over this track and trip, and is perfectly drawn to the rail.
 
Selections:  6-3-2-9
 
Race 6:  #6 Agate first came on our radar over this track in March when making a sharp wide move to contention over an inside-speed-favoring track.  She hit the sidelines after no-show effort 204 days ago, but returns on the drop and is eligible to come back running.  #1 Southern Sunshine has run the fastest races and is supposed to be tough as she drops in vs. maiden claimers for the first time.  #9 Roman Reign turns back to a better distance after trying a pair of routes on the main track.  Finished a game 2nd in last sprint start.  
 
Selections:  6-1-9-5
 
Race 7:  #3 Prairie Stone holds the best route form in the field, is already a winner around two turns, and is eligible to step forward further as she starts back from her first career layoff.  #2 Saythreehailmary's has paired up career top TFUS Speed Figures of 93 for her last two starts.  May be at her best sprinting, but she owns a win over a one-turn mile.  #8 Canal Six took a strong run at odds-on Girlabouttown before being turned away last time.  Posted much-the-best win over this distance two starts back at Belmont. 
 
Selections:  3-2-8-6
 
Race 8:  Our Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap for this strong running of the Damon Runyon for 2yo NY-breds.  We'll admit to being unsure just how good #4 Tizquick may be.  He's been somewhat perplexing to this point, but the ability seems to be there, and he had a less-than-ideal trip when failing to impact the Notebook last time.  He's a price today, and we're sticking with him.  #9 Bullheaded Boy also endured a tough trip in the Notebook, clipping heels early and then trying a 5-wide run through the turn in a paceless race.  #12 Good Luck Gus completes the trifecta of hard-luck runners exiting the Notebook.  Would like him much more were he not marooned in post 12.
 
Selections:  4-12-9-2
 
Race 9:  #6 Haldane put together a strong run of races on the inner earlier this year before going off form while facing better horses during the summer.  Returns at the right level for a trainer who does well enough off of layoffs (76 rating).  #5 Discreet Force chased a fast pace to no avail last time, but she earned competitive speed figures two and three back, and she has speed.  #4 Mama Zee hasn't been seen in her best form recently, and she has been a listed vet scratch twice over the past few months, but she has a race in her that would be too much for these horses. 
 
Selections:  6-5-4-1  
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TimeformUS Analysis for December 13

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday December 13th
 
 
Race 1:  According to Pace Projector, #3 Perfect Disco has an advantage on this field early, and will also likely appreciate dropping back down in class while cutting back to a shorter sprint.  May not have an easy time holding off #6 Indian Nobility late, as that horse has simply run faster races, and he just missed last time to a one-run closer after getting involved in a stretch duel.
 
Selections:  6-3-2-5
 
Race 2:   #5 Cort brings a solid series of works into his debut for George Weaver (88 rating with first-time starters in sprints), and he has the pedigree to be a runner, as well.  His dam was a stakes winner on the inner dirt during her career, and she has already dropped three six-figure earners, including the talented Due Diligence.  Stablemate #2 Saratoga Wildcat has valuable experience, and ensures that one of the firsters will have to be able to go a little in order to win right off the bat.  Kiaran McLaughlin sends out uncoupled pair of #4 Ocean Knight (a $320k buy earlier this year) and the homebred #7 Ekhlaas, either of whom is eligible to be a runner.
 
Selections:  5-2-4-8
 
Race 3:  #4 Hi Speed Chase drops back down after trying tougher (Race Rating 88) last time.  Overcame a speed-favoring track to post solid win despite not appearing to relish a sloppy track two starts back.  #1 Eight Cents parlayed a perfect trip into a long overdue maiden win last time.  Has run plenty of figures that make him tough in this field, and he gets a positive trainer change to Linda Rice.  #3 Stalagmite projects to be on a clear early lead in a race expected to favor that running style, but that was the case for him last time, as well, and he was no match through the stretch.  #5 King Gettigan also drops back down after trying tougher (Race Rating 89) last time.  Often settles for minor awards, but he fires every time.
 
Selections:  4-1-5-3
 
Race 4:  #10 Wild Freud was never involved over a muddy track last time, but he impressed in debut when rushing up to contention after a slow start.  Goes first off the claim for an excellent trainer, and can factor here if building upon that first one back on fast dirt.  #11 Fear drops in vs. maiden claimers for the first time for a trainer pulling a perfect 100 rating with that move.  Interested to see what we get from #5 Eddie Boots, who took all the money in MSW company first time out at Saratoga, then proceeded to do no running at all.  Drops for second start.  #2 No More Options was green when outrun in debut, and he was never able to get untracked over a sloppy track last time.  May have more to offer.  #6 Chasing Bubbles was no match for MSW rivals last time.  Back down to the right level, and he has speed.
 
Selections:  10-11-2-6
 
Race 5:  #3 Southern Proper is a prior winner over the inner, and he ran very well at Parx last time after a terrible trip.  Something similar to that effort makes him a big player here, and he's the right new face against this crew.  #4 Most Happy Fella has held form all year, posted a game win three starts back, and was part of a contested pace when run down by a last-to-first winner two back.  Projects to be in early control in this spot.   #2 Le Deluge is consistently competitive; he just never wins (last victory came in August of 2012, in a 2-mile race).  Good post as he makes his first start for a new barn.
 
Selections: 3-4-2-1
 
Race 6:  #8 Via Strata is the second foal out of a dam who was a multiple graded stakes winner on dirt, and who was Grade 1-placed in her career.  Appeared to be preparing for a Saratoga debut while posting a series of fast works this summer before missing 5 weeks, but she's been back working strongly again recently.  #3 Wundahowigothere was fully cranked for her return from a layoff last month, gunning clear on a fast pace before weakening late en route to a 93 TFUS Speed Figure.  Dangerous if showing up with another race like that.  #2 Majestic Empire was off slowly and no factor in Belmont debut.  Has been given a little extra time since, and her trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with second-time starters.  #5 Relax will debut just a few weeks shy of her 5th birthday.  She is a half-sister to a stakes winner, and her dam is a full-sister to Derby winner Monarchos.
 
Selections:  8-3-2-5
 
Race 7:  #4 Chapman has the best races to get to, and he is the horse to beat as he drops out of a pair of stakes tries.  Pace Projector indicates that runners on or near the early lead will have the advantage, but he does have other speeds drawn to his inside and to his outside.  We have to give #6 Spartiatis a chance, as he gets the chance to sprint over fast dirt for the first time since his impressive maiden win over this track in the spring.  He earned a solid TFUS Speed Figure of 89 for that win, and did so despite racing outside against one of the strongest rails of the year.  #3 War Hero was disappointing when last seen in March, but he is lightly raced, and his lone win came off of works over this track.
 
Selections:  6-4-3-1
 
Race 8:  #5 Vyjack is the horse to beat in the $100k Queens County as he drops out of several graded stakes races to try an easier spot.  Distance may not be ideal, but he has won both of his two-turn starts over this track.  #7 Percussion got in a prep race off the layoff and may now be set for his best, which is going to make him tough in this race.  Ran big in one spot after another on the inner last year.  #4 Don Dulce has been a bit dirtied up since joining this barn, but he is competitive here with his best race, and he lost a heartbreaker in this race last year.
 
Selections:  7-5-4-1A
 
Race 9:  #9 Warm Heart didn't break when dropped in class over a sloppy track last time, but she finished well once wheeled out into the clear.  Drops again, and has more speed at her disposal based on earlier races.  #3 Moonlight Fantasy has disappointed to this point.  Drops down for the first time for trainer sporting series of perfect 100 ratings with older maiden claimers.  #4 Senso gets a positive turn-back in distance for a hot barn, and she closed gamely before galloping out strongly in her debut, which was also her lone start in a fast dirt sprint at this level.
 
Selections:  9-3-4-5
 
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