NYRA

The New York Racing Association


Print this Page Bookmark and Share

Blog

TimeformUS Race Analysis

 

 

resize1-200 2014-09-18_10-56-10 resize3-200

 

 

TimeformUS Analysis for Nov 23

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday November 23rd
 
 
 Race 1:  #1 Mr. Amos has run well in both starts for a tag, including a win at Monmouth despite a wide trip, and he has been in a pair of impossible spots since.  Drops for a trainer off to a good start here.  #3 Whateveryouwant was with the track when prevailing in 5th try just 8 days ago, but he has speed and owns the three fastest TFUS Speed Figures in the field.  #2 Pisgah Pike likely wasn't beating much first time out at Belterra Park, but he did carry a solid run a long way in there and ran right over an odds-on favorite in the stretch.  Privately purchased by Jacobson out of that race, which automatically makes him worth a second look.
 
Selections:  1-3-2-5
 
Race 2:  Not easy to trust ML favorite #1 Big Lute, who has been less than 2/1 in each of his last seven starts and has won just one of those races, and he was defeated without excuse at 1/5 here 10 days ago after establishing a clear early lead.  #3 Classic Salsa disappointed last time, but he had run very well vs. tougher horses earlier in the year, and he exited his races at Monmouth this summer with big excuses after terrible trouble at the start both times.  Has the advantage of being a square price on the ML, and Rudy gets a 98 rating first off the claim.  #8 Horatio has also been a disappointment overall, piling up the short-priced losses before appearing to briefly get untracked for Jimmy Toner this summer.  He did not look good through the stretch after contesting the pace last time, but his new trainer has a way of getting horses turned around quickly (95 rating off the claim). 
 
Selections:  3-8-1-4
 
Race 3:  Tough claiming sprint for fillies and mares, as there is one speed after another signed on.  #6 Insolvent is one of the speeds, but she may be the fastest of them all early, and she has rarely ventured in this cheaply on dirt.  #7 Purling is an infrequent winner, but she seems the most reliable closer in the field and may simply have landed in the right spot.  #8 Fall Into Faith has a recent good dirt effort from a tracking position, and she was in way over her head last time.
 
Selections:  6-7-8-4
 
Race 4:  #1 Marie Antoinette finally gets a second start off the layoff (assuming she gets in), and we'll expect some improvement because she was taken back to last in her return.  Showed potential last year despite some tough trips.  #12 Ramble is also stuck on the AE list, but she made a promising debut at Gulfstream for Mott.  In the main body of the race, we'll have to side with the Chad Brown first-time starter #7 Rather Beautiful.  She's out of a dam who was a Grade 3 winner on turf, and this barn wins turf debuts like no other.  #4 Trophee has been continuously rained off the grass since stateside debut at Saratoga.  She's well-bred and well-connected, but may need better than that first run here in this spot. 
 
Selections:  1-12-7-4
 
Race 5:  MSW for 2yo fillies hinges on whether #13 Sonora gets in from the AE list.  If she's in, she's tough to go against after game debut when dueling with favored My Super Nova while wide.  She earned a solid 84 TFUS Speed Figure for that effort, and her trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with second-time starters.  #5 Miss Valued is an interesting firster (Breeding Rating 91 for dirt sprints) from the family of Grade 1 sprinter Hilda's Passion.  #6 Camille's Storm is a full-sister to the multiple stakes winning Stormy's Majesty, a Grade 3 winner over this track a few years ago.  #4 Madoo ran well enough to last for 3rd in her debut after chasing a fast pace, and her experience could be valuable here in a race composed mostly of first-time starters.
 
Selections:  13-5-6-4
 
Race 6:  #1 Geraldine was game when chasing down a fast pace before being closed down late at Laurel off of a long layoff, and she never appeared comfortable over a sloppy track last time and was never asked for much run.  May see a much more representative race back on fast dirt.  #12 Super City dueled and tired in the slop last time, but she has the kind of speed that can be dangerous on the drop, and she projects to make a clear lead in this spot.  #14 Doesnotgrowontrees also caught a sloppy track in her first start, and she steadied at the start before chasing and fading.  Trainer has been much more effective with second-time starters so far.  
 
Selections:  1-12-14-8
 
Race 7:  #5 Bishop's Castle was earning good marks as an improver from our Timeform colleagues in London, and he earned his top career rating of 94 in final turf start before leaving for the states.  Has handled distance well and will get lasix for the first time today.  #7 Innovation Economy was rated back and unable to impact when stretched all the way out to 1 1/2 miles last time.  Remains eligible to improve after just 3 career starts, is third off the layoff (100 rating for Chad Brown), and has the pedigree to handle longer routes.  #1 Crown Thy Good finally broke through with a maiden win last time at Parx, but he's been all potential to this point, and he ran well over 1 1/4 miles at Belmont back in July.  
 
Selections:  5-7-1-8
 
Race 8:  #4 Court Dancer emerged as a promising 2yo after trying some tough spots (graded stakes, 2 tries vs. colts) and being way against an inside track in her 3rd career start.  Finally putting races together as a 3yo, and she raced #8 My Girl Madison into defeat on the pace last time before getting closed down by a perfect-trip winner.  My Girl Madison may appreciate getting back to fast dirt, where she has run a pair of 90 TFUS Speed Figures, which are tops in this field.  #1 Ms. Sylvia A. has improved from start to start for Michelle Nevin.  Will be hoping the top 2 go at it once again to set her up.
 
Selections:  4-8-1-10
 
Race 9:  No form to go on in the main body of this turf route for 2yo maidens, as 7 of the 10 are first-time starters.  For now, #3 Renwick is a half to Mississippi Duel and Mobridge, both 3-time winners on grass, and debuts for Clement, who is rated 100 with runners debuting in turf routes.  #4 Uncle Chester (90 Breeding Rating for turf routes) is out of Chestoria, who made over $500k on the grass.  #8 Cliffs of Dover is also out of a dam, Ambidaxtrous, who could run on the grass, though Cliffs of Dover's trainer rarely wins with firsters. #1 Jax Heritage is out of Heritage of Gold, a super-talented racer who has produced little of consequence to this point.  
 
Selections:  3-4-8-6
black-white-TFUS-logo_copy
 

TimeformUS Analysis for Nov 22

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday November 22nd
 
 
Race 1:  #4 Show of Force debuts for Dominick Schettino, who is quietly among the best trainers on the circuit with first-time starters (90 rating with first-time starters in sprints).  Show of Force is a half to the speedy Shot to Win, a two-time winner in NY for these connections.  #8 Awesome Lute had enough trouble in his debut earlier this year to be given some additional chances, and he was re-claimed immediately by these connections.  Drops back down in class and trainer does excellent work turf-to-dirt (97 rating).  #2 Thug Daddy has turned out to be a major disappointment after some 2yo promise.  Has faced better than this, and he was crushed at the break of his last start, which cost him his best chance.  
 
Selections:  4-8-2-5
 
Race 2:  No idea if either #1 Tiz Elusive or #6 Hythe Gardens can run, but they are favored on the ML as first-time starters for a reason.  Overall, Ken McPeek, the trainer of Hythe Gardens, does a better job with first-time starters, so we will go there.  Of the ones with experience, #2 Channel of Love hasn't been on fast dirt yet, which could make a difference, and her only start sprinting came in debut vs. The Lewis Dinner.  
 
Selections:  6-1-2-5
 
Race 3:  #1 Patriot's Voyage has run the fastest races in this field by far, gets a trainer change to Jacobson for his NY debut (100 rating first with trainer), and has the speed to be up close.  But he will be racing for just the second time in the last 566 days, and returning horses from layoffs is one of the things Jacobson struggles with (61 rating off layoffs overall, and a lowly 19 off this kind of long layoff).  #7 Love to Run tired after cutting a solid pace going longer last time.  He's better going shorter, and he looked good tracking and rolling over a field at this distance two starts back.  #4 Piquant hasn't looked the same since taking a fall at Saratoga, but he has older races that would make him very tough in here, and he is first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez  (98 rating off the claim).  
 
Selections:  7-1-4-8
 
Race 4:  #2 Summersault endured a tough trip in Saratoga debut when unable to find room to run in the stretch.  Hasn't been able to get a turf race to go since then, but deserves another chance if we are back on grass for this.  #4 Aussie Prayer was held up behind horses briefly as the winner was breaking things open up front in her debut, but she finished up well once clear.  Appears to have some potential for an excellent trainer.  #10 Sugar Mags was away from a slow pace when outkicked by Aussie Prayer in her debut.  Has the pedigree to turn out ok, and will add lasix for her second start.  #8 Krista's Persona has also had trouble getting turf races to go since her debut back in August, but she has been bringing improved speed to the main track, and those tactics could play well in this field.
 
Selections:  2-4-10-8
 
Race 5:  #5 Champagne Ruby has improved this year, and she earned a new TFUS Speed Figure top of 90 for her game effort chasing a fast pace last time.  Doesn't project to have that kind of pace to deal with in this spot, and can land a more comfortable trip tracking up close.  #7 Vicki's Dancer also chased that fast pace at Finger Lakes last time, and she has paired up 90 TFUS Speed Figures since switching back to dirt.  #6 Sunny Desert has run the best races overall, but she has been a disappointment since returning from a long layoff this year.  Like her better sprinting, but she can't have many more chances after this.  
 
Selections:  5-7-6-9
 
Race 6:  6th features the return of #8 Honor Code, winner of the Grade 2 Remsen and runner-up in the Grade 1 Champagne as a 2yo.  He's talented, but just starting back from a long layoff and will likely be looking for longer races down the line.  #2 Maleeh is also returning from a long layoff, but he's more of a sprint type, and he has flashed real ability  in his brief career.  Spotlight Figure of 109 is equal to that of Honor Code as tops in the field, and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating off of this kind of layoff.  With plenty of speed signed on to this race, we'll also include #10 Sam Sparkle, who can close from off the pace and has earned three straight 100+ TFUS Speed Figures for a solid trainer.
 
Selections:  2-8-10-5
 
Race 7:  #9 Idle American endured a very tough trip when returned from a layoff here last month, running quite a bit better than his 9th-place finish would indicate.  He has posted all 3 career wins over this turf course, and he can put his field-best Late Pace Rating of 83 to good use here, as Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap.  #10 Shatak disappointed at Keeneland most recently, but we've seen horses perform below their best over that course before, and his prior effort in NY was a solid effort.  #8 Asset Inflation earned a big TFUS Speed Figure of 105 when taking third straight off the claim for Maker last time.  Has to stretch out and may not be suited to the expected dynamics, but he has been in raging form.  
 
Selections:  9-10-4-8
 
Race 8:  We've been chasing #1 West Hills Giant all year, and he has run well in some tough spots without winning.  He should have some pace to close into in this spot, and he's the horse to beat today.  #6 Readthebyline is a dangerous speed off the re-claim by Nevin/Scuderi.  Think he's better as a router, and that big win in his lone start for these connections (110 TFUS Speed Figure) came with the benefit of a gold rail.  #7 Gridley Here has clearly found his niche as a dirt horse, and he has been impressive in easily closing down allowance foes in his last two starts.  May be ready to take this step.  
 
Selections:  7-1-6-4
 
Race 9:  #6 Shetan found 1 1/2 miles too far at Saratoga two back, and he was compromised while trying to close into a slow pace last time.  Class drop for this.  #4 Cheyenne Nation is still rolling along at age 8, finishing 1st in three of his last four.  Entered right back for $25k after being DQ'd at Laurel last time.  #10 Here's Johnny drops again for Jacobson after failing to hold a stretch lead last time.  Think he may be better from off the pace, and he will likely be taking back from his outside post.
 
Selections:  6-4-10-2
 
black-white-TFUS-logo_copy
 

TimeformUS Analysis for November 21

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Friday November 21st
 
 
Race 1:  #5 Qui C'est Moi tired after chasing favored Boss Daddy on a fast pace off the layoff, and was taken out of that race by a top claiming outfit.  New trainer has been on a good run, winning with 10 of her last 39 starters, and Qui C'est Moi had been running TFUS Speed Figures prior to the layoff that are in line with what ML favorite #3 Mischieviously had been running when in top form.  #2 Heading to Boca did not handle the wet track when last seen at Belmont, but he is lightly raced and may be able to take a step forward on fast dirt for a very good trainer.  
 
Selections:  5-2-3-4
 
Race 2:  #5 Le Deluge is heavily favored on the ML for Jacobson after narrow miss to the streaking Socialsaul here opening weekend.  He is in the best recent form of these but does not hold much of an edge assuming they all show up with their best races.  We'll try to beat him with #7 Seeker, who is dropping in class with some recent excuses in tow.  He was wide on a gold-rail day at Saratoga most recently, and he was given an odd ride when giving away early position to a front-running winner two back.  He has speed, will get the mile, and is 3-for-3 on the Aqueduct main.  
 
Selections:  7-5-6-3
 
Race 3:  #5 Manoffire returned sprinting off the layoff, and he wound up boxed in behind horses all the way through the turn as a fast pace developed out front.  Finished well once clear, but it was too late, and he will appreciate getting stretched back out in distance.  #1 Forever Utopia, #9 Talladega and #10 Blue Shark all exit the 3rd race from October 29th, which was won by the filly Graceful Gal.  None of them ran particularly well in that spot, but they fit well in this field.
 
Selections:  5-1-9-10
 
Race 4:  #9 Pierce's Prize made a promising debut while contesting the pace between a pair of Chad Brown runners (one now a stakes winner, the other multiple stakes placed), and he was caught contesting a fast pace (note pace figures/fractions shaded in red) in a race that collapsed in his second start.  Back to a better spot here after the stakes try last time, and he's drawn well on the outside.  #1 David Rocks controlled a slow pace on debut before being run over by the talented Tizquick at the end.  Owns top TFUS Speed Figure in the field for that effort (83), and is clearly eligible for better with experience.  #2 Helicity and #4 Possilicious are interesting firsters, both with some fast works showing.
 
Selections:  9-1-4-2
 
Race 5:  A lot going on here, with several class-droppers entered, including #1 Financial Mogul.  Once just a couple of lengths behind Cairo Prince when 2nd in the Grade 2 Nashua, things haven't gone so well for him this year.  He's supposed to be tough at this level, but he lacks early speed, and Pace Projector places him up against it in that regard.  #6 Sun Storm ran very well when earning a 91 TFUS Speed Figure in debut, then hit the sidelines for over 400 days after just one more race.  Makes his third start back from that long layoff, gets a drop in class, and projects for a nice trip tracking the pace from the outside.  #7 Sunlover may not be quite as good on dirt as he is on turf, but he ran a remarkable race last time to get 3rd after completely missing the break and spotting the field several lengths.  
 
Selections:  6-1-7-4
 
 
Race 6:  #6 Birchwood Road was done in by his far outside post most recently, as he had to give away position in order to save ground, and he was never going to be able to impact late in a race that was holding together up front.  Effort two back over yielding ground is among the best of his career (earned new top TFUS Speed Figure of 83), and he posted a big maiden win over this course around this time last year.  #10 March Reward has dangerous speed and a rider who knows how to use it, and he has been running competitive speed figures right along.  #9 Mental Iceberg was rated back after an alert start last time, and he wound up catching some traffic before failing to fire hard in the stretch.  We have always thought he had some potential, so perhaps the class drop will help.  
 
Selections:  6-10-9-8
 
Race 7:  #8 Damage Control gets a solid overall Breeding Rating of 88 for dirt racing, and he is out of a stakes-placed dam who is herself a sister to the multiple stakes winning Friend or Foe, who was a debut winner for these connections a few years ago.  Trainer has had a good year with his 2yos and does a solid job with first-time starters overall (83 rating).  #2 Andrew's Got Zip didn't break sharply from the gate in his debut, but he had good speed thereafter to rush forward to contest the pace before tiring.  Can do better with that one behind him.  #7 Masons Dream has run the best races so far and is the horse to beat.  #6 Summer Hawk contested the pace and was tiring when forced to steady at the top of the stretch first time out.  Gets lasix and switches to Rosario for start #2.
 
Selections:  8-2-7-6
 
Race 8:  With our Pace Projector indicating that a fast pace may be in play for this race, we went looking for closers.  Both #4 Keen Katana and #6 G Note closed from behind a quick pace when 2nd and 4th in the finale on October 19th.  Keen Katana had the better trip of the two, with G Note caught up behind horses for much of the run through the stretch, and G Note will be a better price.  #3 Graceful Gal overpowered males to break her maiden over this course with a solid TFUS Speed Figure of 84, closing into a fast pace.  
 
Selections:  6-4-3-5
 
Race 9:  #9 Pitched has proven herself to be an effective closing sprinter since being claimed by these connections, and she was competitive to mid-stretch in NY two back before flattening out going longer.  #3 Literata dropped down to break her maiden in the slop last time.  Lightly raced 3yo filly holds all the upside, and her trainer has been red-hot since racing has shifted to Aqueduct.  #4 Zimbabwe Lady and #5 Charming Eyes are logical contenders for sharp trainers, but we don't need them at short prices.  
 
Selections:  9-3-4-5
black-white-TFUS-logo_copy
 

Big Apple Babies for Thursday November 20 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Thursday, November 20, 2014
Race 2, 2-year-old fillies, 1 mile, off-the-turf, 12:49pm

CHAPEL (dark bay/brown filly, Pulpit – Owsley, by Harlan) is the sixth foal out of a multiple-graded stakes winner of over $860,000. Owsley broke her maiden in her debut, as a January three-year-old, on the dirt but achieved the vast majority of her success on the lawn. Her victories included the G2 Winstar Galaxy and G2 New York Handicap. Four prior runners have won, including a trio of stakes horses. The first, War Hoot (War Chant), earned over $220,000 and was third in the PTHA President’s Cup going 1 1/8 on the turf. Fellow turf router Senada, a full sister to Chapel, earned just a shade less, $215,000, but was the winner of the Dowager Stakes and Keeneland and was graded stakes placed on two occasions. Owsley’s leading earner is Arthur’s Tale (Bernardini), a two-time Aqueduct dirt winner who finished second in the G1 Wood Memorial and third in the G2 Brooklyn Handicap. Chapel is also a full sister to Remember Then, who swept her first three lifetime starts, including a fall two-year-old debut, two on all-weather and one on dirt.

Owner: Stone Farm
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Jockey: Manuel Franco

 

ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction