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TimeformUS Analysis for January 29

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday January 29
 
 
Race 1:  #4 Appearance caught a sloppy track when returned from a short layoff last time and spent the entire trip chasing down along the deeper inside paths.  Ran well over this trip on the inner last year, and broke her maiden in a two-turn mile at Santa Anita.  #3 Silver Silence gets a positive trainer change for this and may appreciate getting more ground to work with after finding 5.5 furlongs too short last time.  Took advantage of an enterprising pace scenario when pulling off an upset over this distance (one turn) on the main track November 7th, but may not catch that kind of set-up today, according to Pace Projector.
 
Selections:  4-3-5-2
 
Race 2:  #1 Live Love Laugh was up against it when off the rail and away from a slow pace on Cigar Mile day's strong rail, and she actually ran quite well off the layoff despite being forced into a wide run from the back of the pack.  Two best races thus far have come off of workouts.  #2 Jubilant Vision contested the pace all the way and came away 2nd best on the drop in NY debut.  Is the speed nearest the inside, and is dangerous if getting early control.  #4 Vision of Mine made clear leads in both starts over the main track here in November, but couldn't hold either time, and she was with the strong rail every step of the way when finishing ahead of Live Love Laugh on November 29th.
 
Selections:  1-2-5-4
 
Race 3:  Appears that a new face to this re-drawn race, #6 Third Frontier, will be forced to scratch due to new entry rules preventing a start within 14 days of most recent race.  Perhaps #8 Norm the Giant can show more as he stretches out for an underrated trainer in start #2.  Drops a bit while adding blinkers, and his debut race has already produced a pair of runners who have come back to run well, including runner-up Copernicus, who blew away maidens with ease here last week.  #9 Wild Ham is the field's lone MSW dropper, which makes him of immediate interest.  Had little to offer first time out, and his Breeding Rating of 67 for dirt routes fails to inspire confidence, but the class drop should help him some.  Both #1 X Max (improved suddenly last time) and #7 Igotthediscoinme have speed, and that can make them dangerous, assuming they can avoid each other early.
 
Selections:  8-9-1-7
 
Race 4:  Those new entry rules are expected to take a major toll on this race, as 6 of the 8 entered exit a start on January 15th, which seemingly makes them ineligible to run.  That would leave just #4 Painted Poney and #6 Epiphany still standing after scratches.  We won't have much interest in the match race, though Epiphany projects to have more early speed, which would give her a big advantage.
 
Selections:  No picks
 
Race 5:  #1 Second City ships across the country off the Jacobson claim (100 rating) after posting his first win in over two years last time.  He's the kind of horse that the good claiming trainers do well with, in that he has the back form to get to, and Jacobson has consistently proven dangerous with the horses he brings in from out of town.  #2 Springcourt has spent time in most of the top claiming barns on the circuit, and he has held good form for all of them.  Drops back down, but he's at his best with some pace to close into, which, according to Pace Projector, could be a problem for him today.  #4 Big Town projects for a better trip up close and goes first off the claim for dangerous owner/trainer combo. 
 
Selections:  1-4-2-5
 
Race 6:  #6 Sea Raven goes off the layoff with a trainer change to Leah Gyarmati (100 rating first off trainer change, from a limited sample).  Lightly raced, with handy speed to be up close in a race expected to favor that running style, and his three dirt routes from last year make him a player in here without further improvement.  #2 Fleet First is dangerous second off the layoff with room to improve, as well.  Needs to find early speed of some kind to avoid continuously being compromised by dynamics and trips.  #7 Howaboutwe makes his second start back from a long layoff, as well.  Can have another chance or two after running mostly in the wrong races as a 3yo. 
 
Selections:  6-2-7-3
 
Race 7:  Excellent allowance/optional claiming feature for fillies and mores over six furlongs.  #6 Isabelle has found a tough spot in which to return from a layoff, but she appears to be training with a purpose for Bill Mott, and she has flashed plenty of ability to this point.  #4 Blithely earned new career top TFUS Speed Figure of 103 when defeating a strong field (Race Rating 100) to post fourth straight win over this distance.  Projects for the right trip here, rating behind the speed of both Isabelle and the in-form #5 Atlantic's Smile, who has found a home in dirt sprints.  #2 Misszippityslewda has managed just 1 win from her 5 NY starts so far, but she owns speed figures that make her competitive, and she has run better than it may appear in each of her last two starts. 
 
Selections:  6-4-5-2
 
Race 8:  #2 Essence At Noon couldn't keep close to a fast pace off the layoff, and he was forced to steady when put in tight after establishing a foothold up with the early pace before the layoff two starts back.  Figures up close in this weak field, and has faced the best competition overall to this point.  #1 Cash Buyer drops for top trainer while cutting back to sprint for the first time.  Hasn't had much to offer in first two starts, and would be tough to take at anything like his ML odds.  #6 Line Move is the lone MSW dropper in the field, and he did show more speed last time at Finger Lakes.  
 
Selections:  2-1-6-5
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for January 25

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday January 25
 
 
Race 1:  #6 Star Magnolia posted big maiden win over this track last year, hanging up a big margin in a time that checked in faster than solid older male claimers on the same card, and has consistently earned TFUS Speed Figures in the mid-to-upper-70s since.  Stuck on a dead rail in the slop two back, and goes for a trainer pulling a perfect 100 rating second off the claim.  #2 Time for Harlan steps up into a tougher race off the claim, but he should have plenty of pace to close into on the turnback.  #4 Brad's Ruby takes big class drop for this.  Has speed, but doesn't figure to be lonely on the lead.
 
Selections:  6-2-4-5
 
Race 2:  #6 Point Hope takes the MSW-to-MCL drop for the first time (87 rating for this trainer) after getting going too late from far behind a fast pace last time.  We'll give him slight preference over #2 Aleander, who stretches back out after rallying gamely through the stretch in three straight sprints since arriving in NY.  
 
Selections:  6-2-4-3
 
Race 3:  Would have preferred to see a rider change for #5 Holy Invader after his last race, but he did seem to come through with a much improved performance despite the ugly stretch run in there.  Won't be easy to defeat #3 Vegas No Show assuming all is well with him, though it may be best to tread lightly with that runner, who was claimed for $35k just 56 days ago and returns for $10k.  #6 Patriot's Voyage drops down with a stretch-out in distance after failing to factor at a big price vs. a tougher field last time.  Has handled distance effectively in the past.  
 
Selections:  5-3-6-7
 
Race 4:  Think #1 Free Mugatu may appreciate getting back to a dirt sprint for the first time since his juvenile season, after failing to improve as a 3yo while kept exclusively to turf and/or routes.  Plenty of pace signed on for him to attack late, assuming he is ready off the layoff.  #3 Brass Pear earned new career top TFUS Speed Figure of 100 in his first start for Michelle Nevin, but did so with the help of a gold rail on December 28th.  #4 Ground Force has been on the sidelines since being re-claimed by David Jacobson 114 days ago.  Posted back-to-back TFUS Speed Figures of 105 and 98 with closing tactics in his last two starts for this trainer, and that style may play well in this field, as well.  
 
Selections:  1-4-3-6
 
Race 5:  Tough to be against the two favorites on the ML to close out the Pick 5, as #6 Alice and Trixie  and #7 Is She Hot appear to overwhelm their five opponents.  Alice and Trixie earned solid 71 speed figure over this track and trip last year, and she is dropping for her second start back from a layoff.  Is She Hot also drops in class, and Pace Projector gives her the early advantage.
 
Selections:  7-6-1-3
 
Race 6:  #9 Towering Moon completely missed the break in return from a long layoff last time.  Efforts over this track prior to that layoff give him a big chance in here, and there should be enough pace in here to give him a fair chance.  #8 Writingonthewall was back in strong form throughout 2014, winning 5-of-9 and concluding the season with back-to-back wins with TFUS Speed Figures of 101 and 102.  Handles distance and has no problem stalking or leading.  #2 Fiona's Hero was in close attendance to a fast pace that fell apart last time, and he tried cutting a fast pace two back before giving way.  He's competitive with his best race and is not a need-the-lead type. 
 
Selections:  9-8-2-6
 
Race 7:  #3 Jazzminegem finished gamely after return winner Laura Can Disco in her first start back from a layoff last time, and earned a new top speed figure of 87.  Trainer brings them forward off a race (82 rating second off the layoff).  #8 Royal Jest may simply be a better turf horse, but we're not so sure about that, and she was wide against a strong rail in her last race, which was over a route of ground.  #2 My Won Love has improved since being claimed by Steve Klesaris and can handle wet tracks, which may be in play on Sunday.  #4 The Lost Tigress is eligible to offer more improvement  as she makes her 4yo debut, and she has the speed to be forwardly placed in this race.
 
Selections:  3-8-4-3
 
Race 8:  #7 Royal Posse has been in excellent form for top connections, and he had to work hard to get to the lead before #6 This Hard Land closed him down on November 7th.  Was unlucky to be stuck in a three-wide trip on Cigar Mile day's gold rail, but stayed gamely to the end in a performance that is quite a bit better than it may appear.  #6 This Hard Land was a game winner with the drop to this level last time, staying wide throughout before digging in to close down Royal Posse late.  Expect him to be a big factor at this level going forward.  #1 Wildniteattheopera holds all of the upside in this race, and he finished gamely to fall just short of a front-running winner in the slop last time.  
 
Selections:  7-6-1-5
 
Race 9:  #7 Marcy gets a proper turn-back after stepping in over her head over a route of ground last time (Race Rating of 91, vs. today's 83).  Has always been a better sprinter, and has been in career-best form since getting the change to Rudy last September.  #5 Discreet Force never faced a challenge when blowing out a weaker field (Race Rating 78) at this level last time.  Earned a TFUS Speed Figure of 98 for that effort, and if he runs a figure anywhere near that today, he is a likely winner.  #1 Blue Ballerina took a step in the right direction last time, and she is a horse who held her form once she found it last year.  Inside post is not ideal, but she has speed to use and will be a big price.  
 
Selections:  7-5-1-3
 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for January 24

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday January 24
 
 
Race 1:  No one to trust in MCL route for NY-breds to kick off card.  Perhaps #2 Norm the Giant can show more as he stretches out for an underrated trainer in start #2.  Drops a bit while adding blinkers, and his debut race has already produced a pair of runners who have come back to run well, including runner-up Copernicus, who blew away maidens with ease on Thursday.  #7 Wild Ham is the field's lone MSW dropper, which makes him of immediate interest.  Had little to offer first time out, and his Breeding Rating of 67 for dirt routes fails to inspire confidence, but the class drop should help him some.  Both #4 X Max (improved suddenly last time) and #5 Igotthediscoinme have speed and that can make them dangerous, assuming they can avoid each other early.
 
Selections:  2-7-5-4
 
Race 2:  Remarkable 10yo millionaire #7 Be Bullish is the horse to beat, as he has been seen back in good form recently.  Pace Projector indicates that the runners on or near the early lead will have the best of it, which would be to his benefit, as it was in convincing win last time.  Interested to see what we get from #2 Piquant, who rebounded to post a solid win two starts back.  He was oddly ridden last time, and at one point appeared to be in the midst of being eased out of the race, before re-rallying through the stretch.  Best race makes him a player in here.  #5 Hurry Up Alan has run very well in both career dirt sprints, and he is dangerous off the Jacobson re-claim.
 
Selections:  2-7-5-3
 
Race 3:  Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is coming for the $125k Rego Park.  #5 Deficit Hawk impressed in debut win here a few weeks ago while tracking away from a fast pace (81 TFUS Speed Figure) and may be in position to capitalize once again.  #1 Breakin the Fever was beaten to the lead by #2 Regal Minister when they ran 1-2 around the track on November 16, and they may be destined to hook up early in this spot.  Regal Minister will appreciate the turn back he gets here.  
 
Selections:  5-1-2-3
 
Race 4:  #1 Promise and Hope was a big price when finishing behind a couple of these last month, but considering the disastrous start he was off to in that race, we thought he did well to be as close as he was at the end.  #8 Ekhlaas got the best of a fast duel in that same race before being overtaken by a pair of perfect-trip closers in the stretch, including #4 King Rontos.  May be destined to hook up once again with the speedy #2 Jackson P shipping in, but he has drawn perfectly on the outside.  
 
Selections:  1-8-4-2
 
Race 5:  #1 Second City ships across the country off the Jacobson claim (100 rating) after posting his first win in over two years last time.  He's the kind of horse that the good claiming trainers do well with, in that he has the back form to get to, and Jacobson has consistently proven dangerous with the horses he brings in from out of town.  #7 Springcourt has spent time in most of the top claiming barns on the circuit, and he has held good form for all of them.  Drops back down, but he's at his best with some pace to close into, which, according to Pace Projector, could be a problem for him today.  #5 Big Town projects for a better trip up close and goes first off the claim for dangerous owner/trainer combo.  
 
Selections:  1-5-7-2
 
Race 6:  #9 Sea Raven goes off the layoff with a trainer change to Leah Gyarmati (100 rating first off trainer change, from a limited sample).  Lightly raced, with handy speed to be up close in a race expected to favor that running style, and his three dirt routes from last year make him a player in here without further improvement.  #7 Fleet First is dangerous second off the layoff with room to improve, as well.  Needs to find early speed of some kind to avoid continuously being compromised by dynamics and trips.  #8 Howaboutwe makes his second start back from a long layoff, as well.  Can have another chance or two after running mostly in the wrong races as a 3yo.
 
Selections:  9-7-8-10
 
Race 7:  #2 Whispering has handled distance before, and she was pushed wide vs. a strong rail when unable to impact her last race.  TFUS Speed Figures of 89 and 90 for her two starts prior to that make her a big player in here.  #3 Checkupfromzneckup dominated maidens in the slop with an 88 two back, and she was also stuck outside against that gold rail on Cigar Mile day.  Still came through with a strong effort, and is the horse to beat.  #4 Majestic Marquet continues to go well out of town,  where she can be kept around two turns.  Needs some pace out in front, but she's a consistent and capable closer.  
 
Selections:  2-3-4-7
 
Race 8:  #2 Wealth to Me figures to appreciate the distance more than most in this field, and he will appreciate dropping out of stakes company for this.  Good effort running over the 21-for-32 lifetime Lucy's Bob Boy in the mud two back.  #7 Percussion takes big class drop after coming up empty in the Queens County.  That makes two disappointing efforts in a row since returning from a layoff, and places him in the position of having to prove that he still has it in this spot.  Recent good run that #6 Classic Sense has been on seems to be more a matter of excellent placement than anything else, but he earned a new TFUS Speed Figure top of 96 last out, and he likes a wet track, which seems likely to be in play on Saturday.
 
Selections:  2-7-6-5
 
Race 9:  Like that #5 Dr Disco was freshened a bit off the re-claim, as he had been on a long run of races throughout 2014, but fact that he is entered back for $10k after being taken back for $20k is reason to tread lightly.  #3 Won Great Classic may have simply gone off form, but he was chasing from the outside last time, a day when the rail was strong, and he has viable excuses for each of his two starts prior to that, as well.  Best race puts him there, and he's too big of a price to ignore.  #10 Mop Head couldn't gain on front-running Say Mr. Sandman last time and settled for 2nd best.  Game in dueling down heavy favorite Big Lute two back with a 90 TFUS Speed Figure.
 
Selections:  3-5-10-9
 
 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for January 23

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Friday January 23
 
Race 1:  Trainer David Jacobson goes with the kind of entry here that makes these races tough to like.  He claimed #1 Duke of the City out of a very good effort 50 days ago for $25k, and enters him back for half of that price.  He claimed #1A Vegas No Show 54 days ago for $35k, and also sees fit to drop him precipitously for his first start since.  Either (or both) is likely to be too much for this field, and Jacobson is one of the guys who seem to get away with this stuff, but there are obvious reasons to tread lightly.  Outside of those two, #2 Futurazo was in too tough last time and drops to a more reasonable spot.  Came through with a nice performance at Belmont at the end of September, and continued in good form at Finger Lakes after that.  #6 Southern Proper is properly spotted off the claim, and he has the tactical abilities to pull a good trip here.  
 
Selections:  1/1A-6-2-7
 
Race 2:  #7 Real Deal Lady took money on debut in a cheap race at Finger Lakes (she was part of an entry, but it's hard to believe her mate was the focus of the wagering, based on her running lines) and was putting in a run behind a runaway winner after getting outpaced early.  Has the pedigree to stretch out effectively (Breeding Rating 77 for dirt routes) as a half to the 7-time route winner My Honey Laurie.  #2 Jackie Black is the horse to beat off the claim for Linda Rice (81 rating) after cutting a fast pace sprinting last time.  Projects to be on a clear early lead on the stretch-out, and TFUS Speed Figure of 68 earned last time tops the field.  #4 Golden Starlet outfinished Jackie Black after that one threw in the towel in that fast-paced sprint.  Also projects to be up close as she stretches out.
 
Selections:  7-2-4-5
 
Race 3:  #6 Best Play goes for low-profile connections, but he has the best back races and ran deceptively well last time after being held up behind a slow pace for a long way.  #7 Papa Tom lacks a winning profile at 2-for-41 lifetime, but he has rarely ventured in this cheaply, and he also has back races that make him too much for this field.  It's that kind of race.  #1A Distant Thoughts is lightly raced enough to project some further improvement, and he has the tactical speed to pull the right kind of trip in here.  #2 Solly's Mischief may be the horse to beat, and perhaps this is simply the right spot, but he's better as a closing sprinter, a point driven home as he hung badly in each of his last two races.  
 
Selections:  6-7-1A-2
 
Race 4:  #1 Lehigh Five debuts for one of the best first-out trainers in the game in Rick Violette (100 rating with first-time starters in sprints, and has won with 6 of the last 8 he has sent out on dirt).  Expect him to be ready.  #10 File for Divorce turns back after getting caught four-wide throughout a route contested over a track favoring the rail.  Has shown some flashes of run and will be a big price.  #9 Eye Love Michael debuts for a dangerous barn and is a half-brother to the fleet sprinter The Rhythmisright (103 TFUS Speed Figure top).  
 
Selections:  1-10-9-6
 
Race 5:  #1A Big Lute has earned TFUS Speed Figures between 94 and 97 for each of his last 5 starts on dirt, and he is going to be tough on this field if he shows up with a similar effort today.  He also happens to be very difficult to trust, having gone down to defeat at odds of 7/5, 9/5, 8/5, even money (twice), and 1/5, just in his last 6 starts.  They have him to beat, but #5 Shot to Win has run fast enough more than once to be competitive and has the speed to keep Big Lute occupied on the pace.  If he can make the favorite work, #8 First Ranger is an interesting alternative dropping in class for his second start back from a layoff and finally getting back on a fast track (presumably).  He showed some promise on the inner dirt last year and has that TFUS Speed Figure of 87, earned for the allowance win in March, to build upon.
 
Selections:  8-1A-5-1
 
 
Race 6:  It's a bit hard to believe that #4 Kara's Match Point's career record sits at 1-for-12 considering how well she has run on several occasions, but that is indeed the case as we approach the two-year anniversary of her lone career win.  She's second off the layoff today for a trainer who does well in that situation (85 rating), and her good race will likely be enough in this spot.  Still, we understand any reservations concerning her.  #1 Had It All is a very dangerous speed over this shorter distance.  She tends to be stopping late after blasting out to long leads, but she has managed to hold on in each of her last three races on dirt over 5-or-5.5 furlongs.  #3 Pennymine is as consistent as they come, and she came with her run to close down a fast pace last time at a big price.  Likely to be closing again.  #9 Evandear buried a field over this trip in her last start in Kentucky, and she dug in gamely after making a fast pace going long in her first start for Jacobson last time.  Problem is, that was 399 days ago, and returning horses from layoffs is not one of the things this barn does well (60 rating).  
 
Selections:  4-1-3-9 
 
Race 7:  #6 Champagne Ruby has been in improved form while kept exclusively with stakes company as a 4yo, and earned a new TFUS Speed Figure top of 91 when forced to chase a fast pace two starts back.  She was compromised last time when strongly rated back in a race that held together up front, but Pace Projector likes her chances to catch a better set-up this time.  #2 Ms. Sylvia A. can also benefit if a pace develops, and she has improved her figures right along this year (76-76-80-83-85) for a top trainer.  #7 Keep Bustin returns from a layoff on the drop, and she has shown up without fail vs. her fellow NY-breds.  #5 La Bella Valeria was in career form in 2014 for this trainer.  Paid the price after getting involved in a fast duel last time, but showed the ability to stalk two back, and that may serve her well in this spot.  
 
Selections:  6-2-7-5 
 
Race 8:  #2 Organic Gemini finished well with little chance to impact after severe trouble at the start last time in what was a nice step forward.  #10 Watch the Tie landed a good trip and finished well while no threat to the talented All Is Number first time out.  Feels like the horse to beat for trainer in midst of a good run.  #5 Final Chapter checked in a distant 3rd on debut, well behind his stablemate Global Positioning, who returned to win his next start with a TFUS Speed Figure of 86.  Gets blinkers and lasix for his second start.  #9 April Color debuts for Pletcher after bringing $160k last March.  Won't be surprised if he can run, but Todd gets an un-Pletcher-like rating of 63 with older maidens at Aqueduct and is just 4 for his last 33 with first-time starters on the inner.  
 
Selections:  2-10-5-3
 
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