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TimeformUS Analysis for January 19

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Monday January 19
 
 
Race 1:  Not sure that we want either ML favorite #3 Lexsoya or third choice #4 Porcia, both of whom return from layoffs today, though they are the ones to beat.  A firster like #6 Desert Spirit could be interesting (Dominick Schettino gets solid Trainer Rating of 88 with first-time starters in sprints), though betting on 5yo first-time starters has to be a low-ROI endeavor.  Instead, we'll take a flyer with #2 Hereslooknat U Kid, who was green on debut after breaking very slowly and returns with lasix on.
 
Selections:  2-3-4-6
 
Race 2:  Competitive group of older filly and mare routers in the 2nd.  #5 Taylor Jagger appears to be rounding back into form for Nick Esler.  She was no match for #1 Sweets Galore when cutting the pace two back, but she was off the layoff there and improved last time while under confident handling despite a wide trip.  Like that she maintained her good form for this trainer last year.  #6 Penthouse Party is finally entered back at the right level, which we've been waiting for.  Not thrilled that she was listed as a vet scratch from a proper-looking spot on January 2nd.  #1 Sweets Galore is logical right back from a good post.  
 
Selections:  5-6-1-3
 
Race 3:  #1 Stallwalkin' Dude has picked up his game a bit for Jacobson and earned a new career top figure of 102 last time while contesting a fast pace from between horses in the Claiming Crown.  Loves a wet track, which, considering current conditions, is likely on Monday.  #4 Leilani's Ticket is also a logical contender bringing solid form into this race.  Has handled wet tracks himself in the past, and he may have been best last time when contesting the pace before falling to a closer.  #6 Chapman also handles wet, and he projects to be able to make the early lead in here, to his advantage.
 
Selections:  1-4-6-3
 
Race 4:  Chad Brown wins with many first-time starters (mostly on grass), but he also gets a perfect 100 rating with second- time starters, like #4 Overawe.  Thought this one rallied gamely through the stretch after dropping out of position on the turn, and he galloped out past the winner in educational debut.  #2 Tencendur makes his second start after a promising debut trying wide run through the turn before tiring in the stretch.  Held an entry in the Jerome before wisely scratching, so his connections much think he's ok.  #3 Beyond the Green may have to improve upon his established form if the top 2 come forward, but he unwisely gave up his rail position to the eventual winner last time (December 28th was a strong inside track) and wound up being narrowly outfinished by that horse at the end.
 
Selections:  4-2-3-8
 
Race 5:  #2 Prince Zurs makes NY debut after apparent private purchase by sharp ownership group, and TFUS Speed Figures of 85 and 90 for last two dirt starts are going to give him a say in the outcome here.  #5 Empower makes first start off the claim for Linda Rice, and he likely got what he needed out of that stretch duel off the layoff last time.  98 TFUS Speed Figure earned for maiden win over this track last year makes him very tough, if he can run it again.  
 
Selections:  2-5-3-4
 
Race 6:  #5 Exclusive Biz debuted in a tough race, chasing odds-on Kiaran firster Perchance.  Drops for 2nd start (Contessa gets 69 rating with MSW-to-MCL droppers, an improvement on his overall rating of 55), and she has twice breezed 3-furlong bullets since that first start, so she may have more speed vs. this group.  #4 Gabby's Brown has already lost 4 times at around this level, but she has speed and goes from a trainer who has struggled here to one who has been making all the right moves.  #3 Loaded for Bear drops down with a trainer change (Englehart gets 95 rating with new acquisitions).  Wet track may not be ideal for her after that last one, where she came up completely empty. 
 
Selections:  5-4-3-8
 
Race 7:  #6 Ke in Motion was gunned hard to the lead two starts back before tiring in a tougher race, and he was eliminated at the start while on the drop last time.  Should be prominent from the start as he gets a second chance at this level.  #7 Bajan Summer took on too tall of an order vs. allowance company last time, but he came with a strong run at this level two back to collapse a race that ultimately went to a closing winner.  
 
Selections:  6-7-5-4
 
Race 8:  Odds-on Repole-entry is led by #1 Micromanage, who overpowered a similar field in the Queens County last time with a new TFUS Speed Figure top of 111.  He may not be quite as good over shorter distances, but a similar performance makes him too tough.  Entrymate #1A Misconnect also ran well in that Queens County.  He's a game runner who will benefit from the shorter distance of this race.  #5 Schivarelli is just getting started after missing most of his 3yo season.  Earned big TFUS Speed Figure of 116 in the mud here last year, and was in too tough last time.  Feels like a better alternative than either #2 Abraham or #6 Irsaal, though those two also move up on wet tracks.
 
Selections:  5-1/1A-6-2
 
Race 9:  #9 Frogman Mel and #2 Face the Race exit the best last race of these, and they both ran well enough when 2nd/3rd behind a much-the-best winner there to be tough in this field.  Frogman Mel was wide throughout and stayed on better of the two last time, but Face the Race projects to be on a clear early lead according to our Pace Projector, and he can use that to his advantage.  #10 Mr. Lit has come away with minor awards without excuse in both starts since returning from a 589-day layoff.  Perhaps he will be set for better in his third start back.
 
Selections:  9-2-10-5
 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for Jan 18

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday January 18
 
 
Race 1:  Opener may hinge upon which half of the entry Linda Rice elects to run, #1 Charleston Pier or #1A Dangerous Cowboy.  We prefer Dangerous Cowboy, who will be getting a drop in class after running well twice at Saratoga.  #5 Hollywood Angel ships up from Florida to face maiden claimers for the first time.  Blew a clear stretch lead after a perfect trip last time, but may appreciate turning back in distance for this.  #4 Whiskey Cures Ugly was green and wide in tough MSW race at Saratoga first time out.  Adds blinkers while dropping in class for this, a combination that worked well for another horse from this barn a couple of weeks ago, as their Copernicus finished a good 2nd at 30/1.
 
Selections:  1A-5-4-3
 
Race 2:  #7 Share 'n Stone turns back to sprint on dirt for the first time since last May, and lands in a race where all of #3 Prove It All Night, #4 Utopian Wife and #5 Princessbellaoncal have some speed.  Owns top Late Pace Rating in the field by a clear margin (81, next highest is #6 Senso's 53).  #6 Senso will also appreciate having some pace to close into as she steps up to face winners after posting long overdue maiden win.  #3 Prove It All Night was stuck chasing on the outside all the way on December 28th's gold rail here, while #4 Utopian Wife stuck to the inside.  Can turn the tables on that one over a fair track.
 
Selections:  7-6-3-4
 
Race 3: #6 Maleeh is the logical horse to beat coming here off of a strong try off the layoff vs. the talented Honor Code while pairing up his TFUS Speed Figure top of 110.  #3 Monster Mash has never been better for his underrated trainer, and comes here having earned three straight triple-digit speed figures.  May be better off getting out in the clear at some point after having his inside run come up just short last time.  #2 Scarly Charly turns back to 6 furlongs and adds blinkers after disappointing try at a mile last time.  Had consistently earned TFUS Speed Figures that would give him a say in this field.  
 
Selections:  6-3-2-1
 
Race 4:  #7 Heading to Boca is entered back quickly (unsure if he will be allowed to run) while stretching out in distance after winding up in tough trip behind a heavy favorite last week.  Trainer gets perfect 100 rating going sprint to route, and this horse has legit excuses for his last two races.  #10 Tonite Tonite didn't draw well on the far outside, but he is eligible to step it up for trainer who gets perfect 100 rating stretching horses out for the first time, and a 97 with second-time starters.  #8 Hushhushmushmush drops all the way down to try again after failing at short prices in 8 of his last 9 starts.  
 
Selections:  7-10-8-4
 
Race 5:  Pace Projector is neutral for this $20k claiming route, but there is enough speed signed on to anticipate a fairly run race.  #9 Abilio has been a turf horse for most of his career, but he's been more effective on dirt recently, posting two wins on the main track, including a 99 TFUS Speed Figure performance vs. a tougher field three starts back.  Won't hold the sloppy track try while up in class last time against him.  #5 Call for the Clock fits this race well with his off-the-pace style, but he hasn't been seen in 239 days and will have to be ready with one of his best races right off the layoff.  #2 Piscesbymoonlight was contesting the pace outside all the way and couldn't get by the rail-riding winner on December 28th, a day that featured a strong rail at AQU.  Nicely drawn down inside, but may be facing some early pressure.  #4 Pretension has handled distance in the past and is fast enough to be a major factor, but he has been a listed vet scratch 3 times since he was last seen 100 days ago.
 
Selections:  9-5-2-4
 
Race 6:  #1 Majestic Empire went back to the drawing board after breaking slowly and failing to reach contention in sprint debut.  Half-sister to four graded stakes winners is eligible to show a lot more for trainer pulling perfect ratings with second-time starters and with runners stretching out (Hushion shows 5 wins and 2 seconds from his last 8 maidens stretching out on dirt in their 2nd career start).  #9 Full of Sugar has been unfortunate to land in MSW races vs. the likes of Onlyforyou, Dame Dorothy, House Rules and My Miss Sophia (all now stakes winners), and she was simply outrun to the lead in fast-paced sprint last time.  Projects to be the clear speed in this matchup.  #2 Outtacypresshills found some traffic in her debut behind repeat winner Lutheran Miss.  Half-sister to the talented West Hills Giant can improve quickly with that experience behind her.  #5 Strum earned TFUS Speed Figures of 78 and 80 for pair of one-turn miles on dirt before switching to turf recently.  Those efforts should make her competitive, but we don't want her as the ML favorite.
 
Selections:  1-9-2-5
 
Race 7:  #2 Violet Hour is back to the right level after trying a tough spot last time (Race Rating 10 vs. today's 87).  Clear 2nd best to odds-on Bella Valeria in this condition two back, and can sit a nice pace-tracking trip according to Pace Projector.  #1 Coast of Sangria gets a positive rider change after being kept hopelessly wide at Parx last time.  Closes effectively, but she has a versatile running style, which allows her to be closer to the pace when needed.  
 
Selections:  2-1-8-6
 
Race 8:  Still not sure how good we think #7 Captain Serious is, but he was down inside all the way in the Grade 3 Fall Highweight, which was not the place to be that day, and we could argue that he ran a better race than #6 Big Business when caught late by that rival in the Hudson two starts back.  Big Business shows up every time and appears to be at his best over shorter trips these days.  Just held on after a perfect trip going longer last time.  #3 I'm Stoked is a dangerous horse for the top two to have to run against with his speed, and he figures to have those two on a hard chase throughout.
 
Selections:  7-6-3-1
 
Race 9:  #4 Cafe Au Lait may be compromised by the expected pace scenario, but she deserves another chance after being steadied out to the back of the field in the slop last time.  Thought she raced on well after that in what was her dirt debut.  #12 Wise Awake is an odd apparent private purchase as a 10yo with 78 career starts behind her, but she has won 30 times already and goes to a dangerous trainer (100 rating with new acquisitions).  Has the speed to be up close in a race projected to favor that running style.  #7 Bobby Jo disappointed in pair of starts vs. better off the claim for these connections, but is supposed to be to very tough at this level.
 
Selections:  4-12-7-2
 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for January 15

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday January 15
 
 
Race 1:  #4 Sharp Quality drops out of a much tougher race (Race Rating of 100, vs. today's 87), and she ran deceptively well in that spot when putting in a 5-wide run at the lead after significant trouble at the start.  #5 Ridingwiththedevil finally broke through with long overdue win first time off the claim for this trainer, and then came right back to win again before landing in over her head last time.  Figures tough dropping to this level.  #2 Shaunna Alexandra has found a tough spot to step up in class, but she has been holding good form and her new trainer does a good job off the claim (75 rating).  
 
Selections:  4-5-2-3
 
Race 2:  #1 Korite takes a big class drop for a trainer who is pulling a strong 98 rating with MSW-to-MCL droppers and who has won with 4 of the last 9 such runners he has sent out on dirt.  TFUS Speed Figure of 75 earned on dirt two starts back is unlikely to be needed for her to win vs. this field.  #10 Wonderish is also dropping after trying MSW company twice at Finger Lakes.  Has a good trainer, but will need to run better than she has so far if Korite shows up.
 
Selections:  1-10-2-8
 
Race 3:  Strong group of 6 older sprinters set for six furlongs in the 3rd.  #6 Joking looked good going back-to-back once racing shifted to the main track here, and he was chasing wide against a strong rail two back before stumbling badly at the start last time.  #3 Bug Juice will have to be ready off the layoff (good trainer is rated just a 64 with runners starting back), but he has been as consistent as a horse can be throughout his career.  #2 Classic Salsa has won two in a row off the Jacobson re-claim, and he is back quickly for more, but he was the beneficiary of some unfortunate trouble behind him here 6 days ago.  Does project to make a clear early lead, to his advantage, according to Pace Projector.
 
Selections:  6-3-2-1
 
Race 4:  #1 Stardom raced greenly throughout dirt sprint debut behind the talented Captain Serious, and settled for a distant 3rd without going all in.  Went back to the drawing board after racing greenly once again in second start, this time on turf.  Returns as a new gelding, and looking for him to step it up with the time off.  #7 Freudex owns the top TFUS Speed Figure in the field (84) for his narrow miss two starts back.  Gave way without excuse at a short price last time; projects to be on a clear early lead from a good post this time.  
 
Selections:  1-7-5-2
 
Race 5:  Both #1 Deputy Busterstone and #2 Che La Luna drop down after recent tries in stakes company, and they project to be up on the pace together early in a race expected to favor runners on or near the lead.  Deputy Busterstone ran away from a field over a speed-favoring track two back in the mud, but found himself chasing the pace from the outside on December 28th, a day when the rail was strong.  Che La Luna gave game chase to an odds-on favorite in his debut, then came right back to dust maidens in his second start.  Hard to hold the stakes try routing last time against him.  
 
Selections:  2-1-7-5
 
Race 6:  #6 El Grillo wheels back quickly after getting crushed at the break of his debut just 12 days ago in a race that was dominated up front.  Dam posted 6 of her 7 career wins routing on dirt and was a 4-time winner around two turns on the inner.  #10 H Man tried to circle the field from last through the second turn, but had little chance to get near the runaway winner when dropped back to this level last time.  Has yet to show much early speed, so may find himself trying a similar run from his tough post in this spot.  #5 Touch of Paradise makes the MSW-to-MCL drop while adding blinkers.  Is supposed to be tough at this level, but holds no edge on speed figures and may be better over shorter distances.  
 
Selections:  6-10-5-3
 
Race 7:  #5 Kelly's Prize was a more convincing winner than it may appear on the drop last time, as she was nearly eliminated by a spill in that race before coming gamely to close it down at the end.  Entered back at the right level by underrated trainer.  #3 Island Candy is back to a better distance after trying longer sprints and routes recently.  Was done in by contesting a fast pace in a race dominated by closers last time, but this race has come up with more speed since being re-drawn from last Thursday's canceled program.  #6 Little Gidding dropped into a restricted claimer last time and parlayed a perfect trip into a long-overdue win.  Entered right back at a likely level.  #9 Blue Sixty Four is an unlikely winner facing tougher for the level this time, but she rallied gamely through some traffic after a conservative ride and galloped out past the field last time.
 
Selections:  5-3-6-9
 
Race 8:  Wide-open sprint got a full field of 10, and may simply come down to trips.  Pace Projector is neutral, but there are several speed types signed on, so we'll look for a legitimate pace.  #7 Lulu Rocks has found himself caught up in a couple of speed duels out of town recently, and he survived them both, only to fall to closers at the end.  May have to track the pace today, but he can be dangerous with the right trip.  #2 Here Comes Tommy has to catch a set-up and come running late, as he usually does.  He never wins, but is better off on fast dirt, and he was outside most of the way over a strong inside track last time.  #5 Between the Lines rode that gold rail on December 28th to a 2nd place finish, but he was first off the layoff there, and had earned solid TFUS Speed Figures early last year.  
 
Selections:  7-2-5-9
 
Race 9:  #10 Emily May Do It takes a big drop in for $16k while adding blinkers. (Rudy gets a 99 rating when adding blinkers.) Spent debut run racing along the deeper inside on November 5th, and was against a speed-favoring track last time.  #6 Dulce de Leche contested a fast pace with return winner Rhody Rendezvous when dropped in class on New Year's Eve, and was spent as the winner closed by at the end.  Drops again with dangerous speed.  #8 My Eastern Beauty continues her descent while searching for a competitive level.  Had legit trouble two starts back, but she has been her own worst enemy while consistently breaking slowly from the gate.  #4 Munningsgotmusic is an enticing new face in a race like this, but she has had little to offer in some weak races at Gulfstream.
 
Selections: 10-6-8-4
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for January 14

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Wednesday January 14
 
 
Race 1:  Difficult to advocate for anyone in opener, a field of 7 who have combined to compile 0-for-132 record to this point.  #2 Savant has contributed only 2 losses to that total, which immediately makes him of interest.  Failed to get a piece last time, and was behind a couple of these in a race that turned into a stagger-fest late, but he is open to improvement, at least.  #5 Fictionalcharacter has had some excuses during his losing streak, but it's mostly trouble of his own making, as he has but one gear available on the race track.  Getting back to fast dirt may make him the horse to beat.  #3 Hushhushmushmush will try again after failing at odds of 2/1 or less for the eighth time in his last nine starts on December 10th.  Can't bet real money on him, but he is a contender once again.  
 
Selections:  2-5-3-4
 
Race 2:  #3 American Progress has run the 3 fastest TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field on dirt (91-99-90), and, while they came in his first three career starts, we think he may benefit from the change to Rudy (98 Trainer Rating first off the claim) and from getting back on a fast track.  With plenty of speed signed on to this race, #6 Readyheartandsoul may be in a good position right off of his maiden win, during which he stalked the pace before going on to a convincing win.  #4 Bajan Summer kept close and drove down American Progress in a fine performance on December 3rd.  Distance seems to be key for him, rather than surface, as he has sprinted effectively on both turf and dirt.  #2 Super Nicky may find himself contesting the pace from his inside draw, but he does have ample speed, and he was stuck along a dead rail throughout his most recent start.
 
Selections:  3-6-4-2
 
Race 3:  #6 Frogman Mel and #8 Face the Race exit the best last race of these, and they both ran well enough when 2nd/3rd behind a much-the-best winner there to be tough in this field.  Frogman Mel was wide throughout and stayed on better of the two last time, but Face the Race projects to be on a clear early lead according to our Pace Projector, and he can use that to his advantage.  #1 Mr. Lit has come away with minor awards without excuse in both starts since returning from a 589-day layoff.  Perhaps he will be set for better in his third start back.
 
Selections:  6-8-1-5
 
Race 4:  #1 Majestic Empire went back to the drawing board after breaking slowly and failing to reach contention in sprint debut.  Half-sister to four graded stakes winners is eligible to show a lot more for trainer pulling perfect ratings with second-time starters and with runners stretching out (Hushion shows 5 wins and 2 seconds from his last 8 maidens stretching out on dirt in their 2nd career start).  #6 Full of Sugar has been unfortunate to land in MSW races vs. the likes of Onlyforyou, Dame Dorothy, House Rules and My Miss Sophia (all now stakes winners), and she was simply outrun to the lead in fast-paced sprint last time.  Projects to be the clear speed in this matchup.  #5 Strum earned TFUS Speed Figures of 78 and 80 for pair of one-turn miles on dirt before switching to turf recently.  Those efforts should make her competitive, but she'll probably have to do better in this spot.  
 
Selections:  1-6-5-8
 
Race 5:  #7 Abilio has been a turf horse for most of his career, but he's been more effective on dirt recently, posting two wins on the main track, including a 99 TFUS Speed Figure performance vs. a tougher field three starts back.  Won't hold the sloppy track try while up in class last time against him.  #2 Call for the Clock fits this race well with his off-the-pace style, but he hasn't been seen in 229 days and will have to be ready with one of his best races right off the layoff.  #5 Becker's Galaxy has been in good form for a good trainer at Finger Lakes, hitting the board in 16 of his last 17 starts, while posting 5 wins in that span.  #6 Pretension has handled distance in the past and is fast enough to be a major factor, but he has been a listed vet scratch 3 times since he was last seen 90 days ago.
 
Selections:  7-2-5-3
 
Race 6:  #3 Marc the Sky was off slowly in debut before rushing forward to chase a solid pace in a race won by the talented Sonora.  Will take her over #1 Non Finisce Mai, who closed late to outfinish her for 2nd in that race.  #8 Moondance Joy has had more chances, but ran every bit as well as Non Finisce Mai last time with a similar trip.  #4 Miss Valued gave way early in that same race, but she was off slowly before rushing forward, and gave the impression of a horse who may run a lot better with some experience behind her.  #10 Irish Laughter is a dangerous firster debuting for an excellent first-out trainer (100 rating) and pulls a solid Breeding Rating of 85 for dirt sprints.  
 
Selections:  3-4-1-10
 
Race 7:  #3 Piecesbymoonlight just missed last time despite racing outside on the strongest inside track of the inner meet.  Has the speed to make the front from his inside post today.  #4 Best Play is tough to take for low-percentage connections, but his best race is clearly good enough to win here, and he ran deceptively well last time despite an over-conservative ride.  Including him at a big price.  #8 Solly's Mischief has been right there at the end of each of his last two starts before settling for 2nd best.  Seems the distance has done him in both times.  
 
Selections:  3-4-8-1
 
Race 8:  #4 Huge Asset has proven an effective two-turn dirt horse recently, finishing 1st or 2nd in six straight.  Has fine tactical speed to put to use and is the right new face for this kind of field.  #8 Howaboutwe can do better as he makes his second start back from a layoff, and he'll have to.  Deserves at least another chance or two after 3yo campaign that consisted mostly of him running in the wrong races.  #6 Giantinthemoonlite is likely to make the early lead as he stretches out for the first time.  Has a strong Breeding Rating of 93 to handle the distance, but he has not given the impression of a horse looking for more ground on the race track, and he has never been able to build upon that blowout debut win, which was followed by a layoff.   
 
Selections:  4-8-7-6
 
Race 9:  #7 Big Lute has earned TFUS Speed Figures between 94 and 97 for each of his last 5 starts on dirt, and he is going to be tough on this field if he shows up with a similar effort today.  He also happens to be very difficult to trust, having gone down to defeat at odds of 7/5, 9/5, 8/5, even money (twice), and 1/5, just in his last 6 starts.  They have him to beat, but #9 Shot to Win has run fast enough more than once to be competitive and has the speed to keep Big Lute occupied on the pace.  If he can make the favorite work, #4 First Ranger is an interesting alternative dropping in class for his second start back from a layoff and finally getting back on a fast track (presumably).  He showed some promise on the inner dirt last year and has that TFUS Speed Figure of 86, earned for the allowance win in March, to build upon.
 
Selections:  4-7-9-1
 
 
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