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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for February 11

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Wednesday February 11th
Race 1:  #1 Dangerous Cowboy ran well while coming away second best in both Saratoga starts vs. better, and should be tough with this class drop.  Showed enough speed in those first two starts to expect that the rail draw will pose no problem, assuming a clean break.  #4 Norman's Hero chased the 1/5 Bert Stone all the way, to no avail, in his debut, but finished well clear in 2nd.  Can do better with that experience behind him, though new trainer gets a rating of just 37 off the claim.  #3 Astron caught a sloppy track and failed to factor when dropped to this level last time.  Has displayed a habit of breaking slowly to this point, which might continue to work against him, but his trainer can do no wrong right now.  #5 Keep Me Grounded debuts for Jacobson, who doesn't have much of a history with first-time starters, but has the pedigree to be able to run a little (perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints).
Selections:  1-4-3-5
Race 2:  #6 Lady Luciano owns the top last TFUS Speed Figure in the field (87) by a clear margin.  Went well twice over a route of ground on this track last year, and projects to be on a clear early lead in this spot.  #3 Jilly Mac has never routed on dirt, but she holds competitive form and was convincing in posting long overdue maiden win last time.  #2 Untiltherewasyou and #1 Prize Taker  were unable to get to front-running Lutheran Miss last time after that one was able to make a rated pace.  The former has enough speed to be more of a forward factor from her inside post this time. 
Selections:  6-3-2-1
Race 3:  #6 Sakonnet Point is ok on turf but has found a likely spot to try her hand on dirt.  Class drop won't hurt, and her dam won 3 of her 4 career starts, all on the main track, including a pair of wins on the inner dirt.  #4 Warm Heart has run the best races of the experienced dirt horses.  Disappointed last time, and is no cinch to stretch out, but makes for a worthy alternative.  #2 Dance for Joe exits excruciating mile timed in 1:46.84, but has never raced over fast dirt, so perhaps she can show more today (assuming we get those conditions).  Wouldn't knock anyone wanting to give the first-time starter a look, and #7 Pocahontas Style is out of a dam who was a graded stakes winner (over turf).  Trainer gets the dreaded 0 rating with first-time starters, but it's from a small sample, and they have been huge prices, for the most part.  
Selections:  6-4-2-7
Race 4:  #7 Annie Walker's two best races have come on the stretch-out from sprint to route, a blowout win with an 84 TFUS Speed Figure to break her maiden, and then a narrow loss over a demanding 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga with an 83.  Goes off a bit of a layoff this time, but the class drop is a big positive.  Not thrilled with #6 Bi Light of Day's 1-for-20 career mark, but she has mostly faced better competition on dirt, and she fits this race well with her closing style.  #5 Academyperformance had a tough trip in the slop here on Thanksgiving day before almost pulling off a front-running upset at Parx.  Failed to impact last time, but this race projects to have a faster pace, and she may fall into the right trip. 
Selections:  7-6-5-2
Race 5:   #8 Finn's Quest earned back-to-back 97 TFUS Speed Figures on the inner before heading to the sidelines last March.  No threat in race dominated up front last time, but there is more speed signed on to this race.  #9 Lieutenant Seany O was also compromised by the dynamics of that January 17th route here, which was wired by an in-form Celebrated Talent.  Appears not to care for a wet track, but he will also benefit if a contested pace develops.  #1 Sassicaia and #6 Coach Inge are both of interest as lightly raced horses who have never taken a step backwards on our speed figures. 
Selections:  8-9-1-6
Race 6:  #5 My Adonis rallied from last and came up just short of front-running Goodtolook at this level last time.  Think he's better over a fast track, and trainer has been on a good run from limited chances.  #3 Abilio has been a turf horse for most of his career, but he's been more effective on dirt recently, posting two wins on the main track, including a 99 TFUS Speed Figure performance vs. a tougher field (Race Rating 100, vs. today's 95) three starts back.  Won't hold the sloppy track try while up in class last time against him.  Won't expect new trainer to improve #7 Tizmas off the claim from Jason Servis, but he'll be competitive in here with his typical race, and he will also appreciate having some faster footing underneath.  
Selections:  5-3-7-2
Race 7:  #2 Storied Lady and #5 Miss Da Point both like this track (they have combined to post 8 wins on the inner), and they have both run up to expectations here recently.  Storied Lady has won both of her starts during the current meet, while Miss Da Point has finished 2nd in both of hers, but there is little between them, and Miss Da Point did a bit more work up on the pace while wide last time.  #4 Macha was behind the top two last time, but she emerged with a legit excuse after being squeezed back and eventually clipping heels early to wind up far back in the field.  #6 Lady Gracenote will have to maintain her form off the claim, but she is competitive with her best race and is too big of a price on the ML to simply dismiss.  
Selections:  5-2-4-6
Race 8:  #5 Charitable takes big class drop off the layoff, and will be hard to beat if showing up with either of his prior two dirt races.  #4 Ireland's Eye was unable to reach contention after chasing the streaking Read the Mirage (posted third straight win here on Sunday) while four-wide last time.  New trainer gets strong Trainer Rating of 98 second off the claim.  #2 Eight Cents and #3 Hampden Fiveone have disappointed too many times overall, but tend to show up every time and will be around in the stretch should Charitable fail to fire on the drop.
Selections:  5-4-3-2

TimeformUS Analysis for February 8

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday February 8th
Race 1:  #5 Rich Dalone goes first off the claim for Bruce Levine (91 rating off the claim), and he figures dangerous if bringing the kind of speed he has been showing out of town.  Liked #4 Private Thrill's debut, where he wound up contesting the pace while along the deeper inside paths, and he wasn't able to get out of the gate cleanly when failing to improve second time out.  Gets another chance for top connections.  #3 Cats Landing went solidly favored on the drop last time, but never got into contention and was outfinished for 2nd by a longshot first-time starter in a disappointing performance.  Needs to do better.  Not a bad spot for any firster of modest talent, so maybe #6 Afleet's Edge can be given a look.  Draw back is that his trainer, who does everything else well, gets a lowly 48 rating with first-time starters and has lost with the last 29 he has sent out on NYRA tracks.
Selections:  5-4-3-6
Race 2:  #4 Howl was running TFUS Speed Figures last summer that match up well with this field, and he has had some less-than-ideal trips since retuning from a layoff recently, including last time, when rated early before trying a very wide run at the lead through the second turn.  He'll be a price and can get a big piece of this if able to work the right trip.  #2 The Spotted Wonder has been sitting on a win for a while now.  Projects to be on the front again, and he doesn't give up the lead easily.  #7 Mambo at the Gym has taken to dirt well recently, and he has the kind of tractable speed to land the right kind of trip from his outside post.
Selections:  4-2-7-5
Race 3:  #6 Snake Pit exits strong win over this track with 105 TFUS Speed Figure, and that effort was flattered by the performance of runner-up Conspiracy on Friday.  Goes first off the claim for Jacobson (100 Trainer Rating off the claim) with back races to prove that last one was no fluke.  #5 Celebrated Talent got the right ride last time, and wired that field without facing a challenge at any point.  May have a tougher time of it here, assuming #1 Golden Itiz breaks the gate this time.  #4 Casiguapo may still hold the upside in this field, and he impressed in convincing win over this track/trip two back with a 97 figure.  #3 Don Dulce drops in class and will be very tough if able to get back to his good race, which seems something of a question mark at this point.
Selections:  6-3-4-2
Race 4:  #7 Dr. Abramson has never run on dirt, but he has a solid Breeding Rating of 88 for the surface and is the lone entrant in the field who has never raced for a tag.  Layoff the concern, but he starts for an excellent trainer who gets a 92 rating in sprints off of this kind of layoff (from a limited sample).  #5 Wishandaprayer flashed the kind of speed that can make him dangerous in this race on debut, but he was challenged early in that race and couldn't withstand.  #3 Qui C'est Moi has failed to find enough in a couple of likely spots recently and is beginning to sport the look of a career maiden, though he has run some races in the past that would be too tough for this crew.  Your call.
Selections:  7-5-3-4
Race 5:  30-time winner #4 Wise Awake appeared not to care for sloppy going last time, as she was never asked for run at any point while falling back out of contention from the top of the stretch.  Rates another chance vs. similar field.  #9 Discreet Force is the one to beat exiting blowout win with big TFUS Speed Figure of 98 for red-hot trainer.  #3 Blue Ballerina got back to one of her better races last time despite being carried wide, and she raced on gamely for 3rd behind a perfect-trip winner.  
Selections:  4-9-3-8
Race 6:  #1 Non Finisce Mai has valuable experience in this NY-bred MSW sprint, which features 8 first-time starters from a field of 10.  Closed gamely for 2nd to the talented Sonora while posting a 77 TFUS Speed Figure on debut, and her trainer could hardly be any hotter than he is right now.  Bruce Brown in an excellent (and underrated) trainer, though he is not known for having his firsters cranked up to go.  His #9 Lakeside Sunset appears to have been preparing for a summer debut before hitting the sidelines, and she has plenty of pedigree to run to (85 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints, she's a half to a stakes winner, from a dam who was a stakes winner herself).  #6 Bajan Beach gets a strong Breeding Rating of 88 for dirt sprints, and her dam (unraced) is a sister to 4 stakes winners, including the Grade 1 winner Pirate's Revenge.  Trainer Tom Morley hasn't had much first-out success yet, but it seems only a matter of time, considering the work he's been doing.
Selections:  1-9-6-3
Race 7:  #6 Pegasus T got the best of a pace duel last time before tiring late to settle for 4th.  Finger Lakes form stacks up well with this field, and he figures to revert to pace-tracking tactics with this rider change.  We liked #3 First Ranger last time, and while he ran well there to match his top TFUS Speed Figure of 87, he really came away with no excuse in finishing 2nd.  Eligible to take another step forward, but we can only go back to him if he is a price.  #1 Brendan G is plenty fast enough to win a race like this one, but he never seems to get there.  Did get badly trapped at a crucial point last time, but he was empty once he came clear.  
Selections:  6-3-1-7
Race 8:  #5 North Eight Street looked good drawing away from maidens in the slop first time out with an 80 TFUS Speed Figure, and then had a less-than-clean trip when stepped up into stakes company for her second start.  We'll take her over #8 Stolen Victory, who sports a similar profile over her last two races and raced wide to no avail in the Busanda.  Suppose #3 Perfect Freud can have another chance for her dangerous new connections, though she has to stretch out here after downing a very weak field of maiden claimers last time.
Selections:  5-8-3-2
Race 9:  Weak field in the finale, so we'll try dropdown #7 Sweet Cherokee.  She'll stretch out for her second start after trying to chase the talented Sonora while wide on debut, and she will have lasix on today.  #9 Golden Starlet has to stretch out but projects to be speed from her outside post, which makes her dangerous against this kind of field.  TFUS Speed Figure of 64 earned two back tops the field.  #2 Rockin Jodi cut the pace and just failed to last in slowly run mile at this level last time.  
Selections:  7-9-2-1

TimeformUS Analysis for February 7

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday February 7th
Race 1:  #6 Native Hero came through with a solid effort for 2nd despite having to rally into a slow pace when returned from a layoff two back, and he had little chance when stuck four-wide on December 28th's track here, which was strongly favoring the inside.  #2 American Progress goes first off the claim for Rudy (perfect 100 Trainer Rating off the claim), and he has fast races to get back to.  #3 Sharp Quality endured a terrible trip in NY debut.  Came away second best last time without excuse after making a clear early lead, but that was a tougher field than this one (Race Rating of 90, vs. today's 82).
Selections:  6-3-2-7
Race 2:  #4 Super Service debuted in tough spot behind the impressive Classy Class (97 TFUS Speed Figure, runs in Grade 3 Withers later on card), and, while he was never winning that race, he had legitimate trouble when caught behind tired horses in the stretch and shuffled out to last.  Not thrilled to see him come back for a tag off of a layoff, but he returns as an apparent new gelding for a trainer who gets a perfect 100 ratings across several categories (First Route, Second Start, First Since Layoff, MSW-to-MCL).  #8 Rollie Mass also debuted in a tougher spot and failed to get involved over a track that was strongly favoring inside speed.  Trainer gets solid 87 rating MSW-to-MCL.  #2 Marvino owns the top TFUS Speed Figure in the field by way of the 76 earned for his career debut in the slop.  Not worried about the trainer change, but he has been twice defeated at short prices without apparent excuse.
Selections:  4-8-5-2
Race 3:  Grade 3 Toboggan goes through #5 Salutos Amigos, who defeated 4 of these in the Gravesend with something in hand.  #3 Dads Caps is logical as the alternative, though he often settles, and he may face some early pressure from the quick #4 Green Gratto.  Blinkers on has been a good move for Rudy (96 Trainer Rating with that move).  #2 Doubledown Again has been in very good form since claimed by Michelle Nevin last August, and he will also benefit if Dads Caps and Green Gratto race each other early.
Selections:  5-2-3-6
Race 4:  87 TFUS Speed Figure earned by #2 Ke in Motion in his NY debut last year would make him tough in this spot, and he deserves another chance after being bumped hard and steadied at the start last time.  Was never put all-in after winding up so far back in that spot, and he exited each of his two prior starts, which came in much tougher spots, with excuses as well (gunned to the lead on a fast pace Nov. 15, and crushed at the start off the layoff on Oct. 25).  Liked the effort #3 Bajan Summer put in when cut back to sprint on dirt vs. a similar field on Dec. 3rd, and can give him another chance, as well.  In too tough two back, he may not have cared for muddy track that was sealed last time.  #8 Van Fraassen drops in class for Jacobson and fits this race well with his closing style.  
Selections:  2-3-8-7
Race 5:  Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace will be in play for this race.  Upside in this entry-level allowance lies with #4 Seagate, who has just two starts behind him.  He raced greenly, but looked more comfortable over a fast track in maiden breaker at Parx last time, and he has the pedigree and connections to continue moving forward.  #2 Leilani's Ticket and #5 Joking fit this race well as closing types, though it is hard to take either of them to clear this allowance condition after combining for 55 starts to this point.  #3 Marble Falls has recently found himself for Bill Mott, and repeat of 100 TFUS Speed Figure earned for easy win last time makes him a player in here.
Selections:  4-5-2-3
Race 6:  #8 Whispering has handled distance before, and she was pushed wide vs. a strong rail when unable to impact her last race.  TFUS Speed Figures of 89 and 90 for her two starts prior to that make her a big player in here, and she may have been best over a mile on October 17th after burning off all challengers on the lead in a race that went to closers.  #3 Bounty Pink has picked up where she left off in two starts since returning from a layoff, including a 92 TFUS Speed Figure win when closing down a fast pace in her first race back.  Thought she was 2nd best despite finishing 3rd last time; she missed the place photo after being bothered late and forced onto her wrong lead.  #2 Checkupfromzneckup dominated maidens in the slop with an 88 two back, and she was stuck outside against that gold rail on Cigar Mile day last time.  Still came through with a strong effort and is the horse to beat.  
Selections:  8-2-3-9
Race 7:  Second leg of late Pick 4 features strong group of maidens with a nice mix of experienced runners and interesting first-time starters.  #8 Promise and Hope was a big price when finishing behind a couple of these last month, but considering the disastrous start he was off to in that race, he did well to be as close as he was at the end.  #9 Ekhlaas got the best of a fast duel in that same race before being overtaken by a pair of perfect-trip closers in the stretch, including #1 King Rontos.  May have an easier time of it here (unless one of the firsters brings speed to the table) and will add lasix this time (98 Trainer Rating for McLaughlin first-time lasix).  #6 Lord Commander debuts for Pletcher with a solid Breeding Rating of 89 for dirt sprints.  Concern is that as strong as Pletcher is with first-time starters overall, he has won with just 4 of the last 33 he has debuted on the inner, and he gets an un-Pletcher-like Trainer Rating of 67 with 3yo maidens at Aqueduct.  Trainer Michael Lerman hasn't debuted many over the past few years, but his #3 S. S. Minnow gets a perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints as a full brother to the good sprinter Il Villano, a multiple stakes winner who has earned over $570k on the track (117 TFUS Speed Figure top).  
Selections:  8-9-1-3
Race 8:  Grade 3 Withers goes directly through #7 El Kabeir.  Not only is he already a multiple graded stakes winner, but he is facing six rivals in the Withers, and none of them has anything more than a maiden win to his credit.  It may be as simple as that, but he faces a field of talented, lightly raced colts, including #1 Classy Class, who impressed greatly on debut (97 TFUS Speed Figure).  He went right into the Grade 2 Remsen off of that race, and there he took the worst of it while dueling on the pace outside of eventual winner Leave the Light On, who was safely tucked to the gold rail prevailing at Aqueduct that day.  We wonder about distance for Classy Class, but we think he has some real ability, and we will take him on top in the Withers. Both #3 March and #4 Tencendur both appear to have real ability, as well, and are worth following no matter what happens with them on Saturday.
Selections:  1-7-4-3
Race 9:  #1 Dr Disco and #6 Night Patrol may simply be the two best horses in this $10k claimer, but neither is particularly appealing from a wagering perspective, as they both exit no-excuse losses, and they are both cut in half for first start off the claim.  We have to use them in the Pick 4, but as an alternative on the win end, we'll try #8 Mop Head.  He has earned competitive speed figures on dirt and is capable from off the pace, which may play well in this field.  
Selections:  8-6-1-7

TimeformUS Analysis for February 6

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Friday February 6th
Race 1:  #2 Alliteration raced greenly but made a promising debut when gamely clear in 2nd behind a sharp winner.  Trainer gets perfect 100 ratings with second-time starters and first-time routers.  #7 Lil Lady Big Purse chased the talented Perchance (won there with TFUS Speed Figure of 82, and came right back to win again with an 84) to no avail on debut.  Stretches right out for 2nd start with solid Breeding Rating of 93 to back her up.  #3 Ring Knocker got off to a fast start over the summer, putting up speed figures of 84 and 87 in pair of strong runner-up finishes at Saratoga.  Hasn't gone forward from there, and is questionable over route distances, but there is talent there.  Don't care for the horse she lost to, but #1 Purrfectly Mine took a step forward last time when taking the race to the 1/5 favorite (finished last) and dueling her down through a solid pace.  
Selections:  2-7-3-1
Race 2:  #3 No Texting crushed a field of maidens in his dirt debut two starts back, and wound up in way too tough last time (Race Rating 82, vs. today's 76).  Has never sprinted, but has speed.  #5 Quality Callin projects to be on the early lead, and he has earned three straight TFUS Speed Figures in the 80s, which puts him at the top of this field.  No match for #6 Dinner Time after making a clear early lead at Parx last time.  Dinner Time would be the horse to beat if he shows up with another effort like that last one, but he had never approached that level in his prior 8 races.  #7 False Positive turns back off the claim for a top trainer (88 rating off the claim).  Had trouble at the start before making up a lot of ground in shorter sprint two starts back, and there is enough speed signed on to this race to give him a chance.
Selections:  3-5-6-7
Race 3:  We won't spend a lot of time advocating for anyone in this bottom-level maiden claimer in which the 10 in the main body have combined to go 0-for-95 to this point, but we will steadfastly avoid the favorites.  Pace Projector indicates that there will be a fast pace, which may help #3 Yes I'm True.  He will be a big price, has run as fast as ML favorite #4 To Erin Again more than once, and gets a major upgrade in rider.  Good enough for us.
Selections:  3-1-4-6
Race 4:  #2 Percussion takes steep class drop for Plethcer and is going to be too tough for this field if he can still run close to his best.  Has disappointed since returning from the layoff, but he's speed when he's right, and he won't be easy to catch.  #5 Snake Pit kept up as #1 Conspiracy tried to break away from the field through a fast fraction last time, and outfinished him well clear of the rest of that field, with a 105 speed figure.  Entered right back at the same level off the claim by Jacobson (100 rating).  #6 Lieutenant Seany O has found a tough field for the level, but it is the right level, and he can benefit if a quick pace develops, which is not out of the question.
Selections:  2-5-6-4
Race 5:  #2 She's Marvy and #9 Patria Querida are new faces to this re-drawn race, which was originally scheduled for the January 31 program, and they also happen to be the only entrants in this field to have posted TFUS Speed Figures of 70 or higher.  Not sure that makes them invincible, as they will be facing several lightly raced opponents, but they are both big players.  #3 I Just Wanna Win turns back out of much tougher spot vs. High Dollar Woman at Parx, and also drops to a more reasonable spot for an excellent trainer who doesn't ship much to NY.  #1 Zenstone was with an inside, speed-favoring track when ridden out to a clear-cut victory last time.  Has speed from a good post, and trainer is in midst of a very strong run.  #8 Munningsgotmusic sat a trip and easily scored over a very weak field in NY debut last time.  Projects for similar trip here, and won't discount her chances to come right back.  
Selections:  2-9-1-8
Race 6:  #3 Pulpit's Express finished 20 lengths behind in his NY debut for Jacobson, but he stumbled very badly at the start, and actually ran much better than that running line makes it look.  103 TFUS Speed Figure for most recent dirt start prior to that disaster makes him a big player in here.  #1 Jeter has been holding good form for a dangerous trainer, and he will appreciate this class drop.  #8 Quiz Whiz has speed and projects to be on the early lead, likes to win, and switches to a very good trainer, though we are skeptical of the competition he was facing at Gulfstream over the summer/autumn months.  
Selections:  3-1-8-4
Race 7:  All the signs were there to be against #3 Belle Gallantey when she returned from her layoff in the $100k Affectionately, and she never looked sharp in a tired 5th-place finish.  Expecting better from her second time out, and this is a field she will dominate if back in form.  If she's not back in form, entrymates #1 Penwith and #1A Divided Attention figure to be in the best position to capitalize.  #5 Moment in Dixie is a reliable closer; she just isn't that good, and will need things to fall apart late in order to get there. 
Selections:  3-1/1A-5-4
Race 8:  #3 Fortunate Sky debuts for George Weaver (100 rating with older first-time starters in maiden claiming races) and gets a perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt as a half to millionaire Musket Man, among others.  Won't need to possess nearly as much talent as that horse to be competitive in this spot.  Rudy Rodriguez had won with 8 first-time starters just dating back to the beginning of the Saratoga meeting, with 6 of them coming in MCL company.  He saddles both #10 Our Posse and #8 Mr. Carmine here.  Of the experienced runners, #4 El Viejo Verde has the speed to continue to be a threat at this level and will find the right field one of these days.
Selections:  3-10-4-5