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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for November 15

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday November 15th
Race 1:  Wide-open race to kick off the Saturday card.  We'll have to wait for Jacobson's decision regarding his two runners, #1 Wealth to Me and #1A Moonluck, both of whom have Cornelio named.  We can be against the latter, but the former figures a big player.
 #4 Non Stop continues to go well, and he has won back-to-back races, albeit with perfect trips.
 #5 Street Shark was on short rest when giving futile chase to a pair of next-out winners last time.  Has a versatile running style and he fits well here.  #7 Joking is facing a bit tougher after dominating restricted claimers over this track earlier in the meet, but he has drawn well once again and has run figures in the past that are competitive here.
Selections:  1-4-5-7
Race 2:  Not sure if turf racing will be in play, which may not matter to #7 Abilio, who figures to be tough on either surface.  Has been a bit better on the main track recently, but his back turf form is too much for this group, and this is a pretty good spot, at least on that surface.
 #9 Legendary King arrived from Suffolk in good form, and he ran well on turf at Belmont two starts back.  On dirt, Abilio will have to deal with #12 Market Blaster, who returns to NY in solid form. #2 M J Plus, who is entered for turf, is much better-suited to dirt racing.
Selections:  7-9-8-1
Race 3:  #9 B. B.'s Remington ran very well on the drop last time, chasing a fast pace and taking over before it ultimately collapsed late.  Good post. Effort similar to that last one makes him tough.  
#8 Jacapo was also part of that fast pace on October 23, and he paid the price for his early exertions.  #7 Golden Bay is a first-time starter for a dangerous trainer.  Dam won 2 of her 3 career starts and has dropped a couple of multiple winners already.
Selections:  9-8-7-3
Race 4:  Will have to await scratches before making final decisions here, as Jacobson has an entry with Cornelio Velasquez named on both.  If it's #1A Patriot's Voyage who starts, we will not try to beat him.  
His entrymate, #1 Bobby V, is first off the claim after dueling the pace in a race that was won last-to-first on October 12.  #9 Upward drops in class again after disappointing in the slop, but he is capable of a race that would be very tough in here, and he has bounced back from dismal performances before.  
Selections:  1/1A-9-8-7
Race 5:  #1 Runaway Posse took advantage of a fast pace when rolling to convincing maiden win going shorter, but he also ran quite well around 2 turns in turf debut at Saratoga, and he has the added advantage of being lightly raced in this group.  
#3 Macagone has disappointed in the past, but he has dangerous speed and endured a tough trip last time after missing the break.  #7 Boston Strong cut the pace in a race that collapsed, but he may be better off from away from the pace, and the blinkers come off for this.
Selections:  1-3-7-5
Race 6:  #5 Call Daddy faced a tough task chasing a well-meant first-time starter in Requite all the way to the top of the stretch before tiring badly late.  Chased a fast pace on turf in his next start, but he's better suited to dirt racing (Breeding Rating for dirt sprints 81, for turf sprints 73).  
#7 Overthespeedlimit did well while giving wide chase to a front-running winner in muddy track debut, and he just missed at the end while finishing well clear of the others.  Steps up in class for his second start, but Dutrow is among the best in the game with second-time starters (99 rating).  
#6 Whateveryouwant has speed and has run the fastest races to this point (last 3 TFUS Speed Figures of 80-79-80 are the top three numbers in the field), but lacks the upside of some of his rivals.  
Selections:  5-7-6-3
Race 7:  Grade 3 Red Smith on turf goes directly through the multiple Grade 1 winning #4 Big Blue Kitten.  He came up just short in the Canadian International last time, but he approached his career top TFUS Speed Figure in that game runner-up effort.
 #8 Legendary has been in top form recently, winning four of his last five while improving his speed figures.  Has handled distance in the past, and has more tactical speed than the favorite.  #7 Calvados ships in for a dangerous trainer, and he endured a very tough trip before settling for second best in the Laurel Turf Cup.  
Selections:  4-8-7-1
Race 8:  Both #1 Ke in Motion and #3 Leroy Jr. have speed, and both were badly compromised when involved in bumping from the gate and unable to establish forward position on October 25th.  Leroy Jr. has run the fastest races in the field, but he has now lost all three starts this year at short prices and is getting to be tough to take.  
Ke in Motion impressed in taking his NY debut back in March with an 89 TFUS Speed Figure, and he may be able to do better as he makes his second start back from a layoff.  #5 Mighty Zealous is lightly raced and eligible to improve as he returns from a layoff of his own.
Selections:  1-3-5-8
Race 9:  #11 Fourstar Crook was away last and went wide before finishing with interest in a race that was dominated up front.  Would not be a surprise to see her step it up second time out.  
#6 Hot City Girl was outfinished late by both #5 Broken Border and Miss Matzoball (who came back to air impressively in her next start), but she did all the dirty work in there, chasing the odds-on winner all the way.  
#12 Congress Park has run well in each of her first two starts, and she was compromised when electing to rate in behind a pair of rivals who went 1-2 around the track last time. 
Selections:  11-6-12-5 

Timeform US Analysis for November 14

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Friday November 14th
Race 1:  #1 Ozone faced a tough task chasing next-out Grade 2 winner Cavorting throughout debut.  Contessa gets solid 79 rating off of layoffs, and she may have the best early speed of this bunch.  
#3 Diannestillworks has been off slowly in each of her two starts to date, and it cost her badly last time when stuck behind a slow pace over a speed-favoring track.  
#4 Kisses for Romeo debuted in the same race as Diannestillworks early in the Saratoga meet, and she took a lot of money in the face of firsters from Pletcher and Asmussen in that spot.  
Selections:  1-3-4-6
Race 2:  #2 Orion Moon has been away for 133 days since cutting the pace and tiring over yielding ground back on July 4th.  Clement can have them ready to go off the layoff, and she projects for a perfect trip tracking the 3yo filly #3 Party Now on the lead this time.  
Party Now can be dangerous if allowed to get loose, but she will need a new lifetime top if Orion Moon shows up with something approaching her best.  
#5 Tuttipaesi was a promising 3yo before hitting the sidelines following solid runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Ashland.  587-day layoff is much to overcome, but she may be one to watch down the line.
Selections:  2-3-5-1
Race 3:  #3 Distant Thoughts is heavily favored on the ML to back up his convincing maiden score at Belmont last month.  He is clearly entered back at the right level.  
#8 Volatile Markets was stymied in traffic through the stretch when last seen in July, and he has faster races than the favorite to get back to.  Seems the logical alternative for a trainer who does well off the layoff (93 rating).  
Selections:  3-8-6-7
Race 4:  #7 Theresas Candyrose was disqualified from debut win at about this level as a 2yo, and she raced on well in a tougher spot when last seen back in January.  Figures tough at this level, assuming she doesn't need a start or two off the layoff.
 #8 Shine On Erin was green throughout debut vs. fellow NY-breds, but raced on through the stretch to just miss getting 3rd.  Can do better with that one behind her.  
#5 Rachel's Temper is the one to beat, but she has done little with a pair of fast-paced set ups in her last two turf starts, and she seems to have attained a level that isn't comfortably out of reach for this field.  
Selections:  7-5-8-1
Race 5:  #5 Onecats Chance has been overaggressively handled in his recent races, to negative effect, but he has been in career-best form recently, and he has proven effective from off the pace, which may play well in this field.  
#2 Go Get the Basil was off form when last seen over the summer, but he has some fast back races to get to.  
#3 Groomedforvictory got back on the beam last time, but that was a weak field, and he was able to get control up front.  Will make him prove it if he is indeed the favorite come post time.  
Selections:  5-2-6-4
Race 6:  Tough race here, where ability to get the distance may prove key.  Thought #7 Global Asset ran very well over this trip at Monmouth three starts back vs. the venerable Grand Rapport.  Found himself in too tough in the Laurel Turf Cup after that, and he was wide from a tough post last time.  
#5 Lure of the South has faced tougher on grass recently and will benefit from the class relief he finds here.  Has to go longer, but he ran a big race over 1 3/16 miles at Saratoga last summer.  
#4 Arc Above has the distance ability, which may prove the difference, but he is not for us at a short price.
Selections:  7-5-4-8
Race 7:  #6 Beyond the Green was outrun early from his rail draw on debut but finished with some interest in an effort he can build upon.  Gets a better draw this time, and has come back to post a solid work for this.  
#5 File for Divorce went outside on a day when the rail was strong first time out, and ran better than it may appear after taking a long, wide run before flattening out last time.  Will need to start showing more speed at some point, which may be reason the blinkers go on today.  
#2 H Man steps up for second career start. Finished gamely for second in sloppy-track debut.
Selections:  6-5-2-1
Race 8:  #6 Artic North has been in solid form since being claimed by these connections, and he did well to gun down front-running #1 Joes Blazing Aaron last time while pairing up 109 TFUS Speed Figures.  Joes Blazing Aaron has handled added distance effectively recently but doesn't figure to be lonely up front this time with #9 Tattenham entered.
 #8 Roadhog is a question mark over this kind of trip, but he's a cool old horse who will generally run a speed figure that will make him competitive in this field.  Still waiting for #7 Mills to take a step forward, and starting to think it may not happen for him, but he can handle more distance, and he projects for a nice trip tracking in behind the pace in this race.
Selections:  6-7-8-1
Race 9:  #8 Road to Rockport has yet to encounter fast dirt, but he put in a run despite some trouble first time out prior to switching to grass.  Pace Projector places him on the early lead for a trainer who has done well with the turf-to-dirt move (99 rating).  
#3 Read the Mirage tried turf with a class drop when last seen back in June, but caught a fast-paced race and couldn't contend.  Makes first start for talented young trainer in midst of a breakout year, and he had faced better previously on dirt.
 #1 Scully is tough to take off the 587-day layoff, but he did some late running behind a blowout winner in debut and returns at a level where he can be competitive.  
Selections:  8-3-1-5



Big Apple Babies for Sunday, November 16, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Sunday, November 16,2014

Race 1, 2-year-old fillies, 6 furlongs, dirt, 12:20pm

EMBELLISH THE LACE (bay filly, Super Saver – Expanse, by Distant View) is a half-sister to two stakes winners, including G1 Travers Stakes victor Afleet Express (Afleet Alex). Afleet Express won his lone start at two before going on to earn over $830,000. Reporting for Duty (Deputy Commander), the other stakes winner, earned just under half that, with a pair of listed wins and a pair of graded stakes placings in the Illinois and Oklahoma Derbies. Expanse herself won her debut and finished third in the Ellis Park Debutante in her only two starts at two. She has two additional winners from three other starters. Embellish the Lace was the second-most expensive offspring of freshman sire Super Saver to sell as a yearling.
Owner: Alex and JoAnn Lieblong
Trainer: Tony Dutrow
Jockey: John Velazquez
Sales history: $320,000 Keeneland September yearling


STEELY MAGNOLIA (dark bay/brown filly, More Than Ready- Exotic Bloom, by Montbrook) is a half-sister to just one other horse of racing age, this year’s G1 Coaching Club American Oaks and G1 Alabama winner Stopcharingmaria (Tale of the Cat). Stopchargingmaria was a very good two-year-old, a debut Saratoga winner who was G1-placed in her next two starts before sweeping the Tempted (G3) and Demoiselle (G2) here at Aqueduct. Their dam, Exotic Bloom, did not run at two but did debut with an Ellis Park win before going on to be G3-placed and earn in excess of $250,000. Steely Magnolia was the second-most expensive offspring of More Than Ready to sell as a two-year-old in training this year.
Owner: Stonestreet Stables
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Sales history: $510,000 Fasig-Tipton May two-year-old in training, where she worked one furlong in 10.1

IL MULINO (bay filly, Elusive Quality – Styler, by Holy Bull) is the third foal to run from her dam, following two whom have won. The four-year-old, Calistoga (Speightstown), finished third in this year’s G3 Bed o’ Roses Handicap. Styler, who won two of four lifetime starts, is a full sister to G1 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, who earned $2.5 million. She is also a half-sister to $2.3 million earner Tiago (Pleasant Tap), a dual G1 winner, G3 winner Stanwyck (Empire Maker), who was G1-placed on three occasions this year, and MGSP Sea Jewel (Sea Hero).
Owner: Donald Dizney
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Sales history: $200,000 Keeneland September yearling


* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare
* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner
* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare
* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner
* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000
* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000
* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner
* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner
* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction



TimeformUS Analysis for November 13

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday November 13th
Race 1:  Much will depend on which half of the Jacobson entry gets to run, as both #1 Big Lute and #1A Artemus Paperboy have Irad Ortiz named to ride.  If it's Big Lute that lines up, we will take him on top; if it's Artemus Paperboy, we will look elsewhere.  Big Lute was on a suspicious drop off the layoff and claim, but he looked no worse for wear in burying that field with a 92 TFUS Speed Figure.  If he doesn't run, #3 Kitchen Police is interesting with his speed off the layoff.  Linda Rice has already brought two runners back from long layoffs at this meet, and both have run very well (Oltre' Oro dead-heated for the win off of a 217-day layoff, and Touching My Toes missed in a photo first back from a 104-day break).
Selections:  1-3-5-4
Race 2:  #5 Idiosyncratic has come up short in both career starts to date, but he has given the impression that there is plenty of potential in there in the process.  Went early and wide in both career starts to date, and may do better under more patient handling.  #1 Melville made a big run from the pace first time out, and made that run early in the race before ultimately tiring late.  Trainer gets a strong 99 rating with second-time starters.  #4 Hay Oats and Water is a very well bred first-time starter for Team Valor.  He gets a 98 Breeding Rating for turf routes, and his dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner on grass while earning over $1.5 million.  
Selections:  5-1-4-9
Race 3:  #1 Speedboat Sally drops back down in class with a trainer change to Jason Servis (98 rating first time with trainer), and does so as the fastest horse in the race, bringing recent TFUS Speed Figures of 86-91-88-85-85 into this spot.  #2 In Kelly's Defense is the ML favorite, but she is tough to take as she drops off the claim after bleeding when last seen in September.  She has speed, and Rudy excels off the claim (98 rating).  #3 Darnley Bay gets a cut-back in distance as she returns to NY for an emerging trainer, and her best race will make her a player in here.
Selections:  1-2-3-5
Race 4:  #5 Island Candy goes first off the Michelle Nevin claim (100 rating) and gets an important turn-back in distance here after finding the flat mile too far last time.  Has some speed and won't need to improve for her new trainer to be effective in this spot.  #8 Ah Gaga drops back to an appropriate level in her second start off the claim after trying a much tougher spot last time (Race Rating of 90 vs. today's 81).  Has run competitive speed figures all along, and earned a new top of 85 in runner-up finish in the slop two starts back.  #3 Wisdom of Oz was pulled up and vanned off after chasing a fast pace going longer on the rise last time, but he has bounced back from a performance like that before. 
Selections:  5-8-3-4
Race 5:  #4 One Penny Piece raced on gamely but had little chance to impact late in a race that held together up front last time, and she was also compromised two starts back when unable to secure clear passage in the stretch.  She fits well here and may be the right kind of price.  #1 Bargaining Table ran her Aqueduct turf record to 3-for-3 after a perfect-trip score over pace-setting #10 Issheit here on opening day.  Nicely drawn inside, and may have a better pace scenario this time as Issheit faces pressure from #9 Porvoo.  #2 Thundering Gale will also benefit should contested fractions develop, as they did in her win over this trip two starts back. 
Selections:  4-2-1-6
Race 6:  #1 Right Decision had to steady hard in the early stages of her debut, and she continued on well through the stretch run despite not factoring in the outcome.  Mott tends to do much better with his 2yos as second-time starters, especially as they stretch out on dirt.  #3 Genre raced on to be second-best in her sloppy track debut for Pletcher (100 rating with second-time starters) and has the benefit of a race over this distance already.  #6 Miss Cobblestone switches from turf to dirt for McPeek, who is 3 for 4 with 2yo maidens making that surface switch in NY this year.  
Selections:  1-3-6-2
Race 7:  #1 Cloture has improved steadily all year long for Shug, who tends to keep them going in the right direction.  Takes the next logical step after winning two of her last three starts.  #5 Premium found 1 1/4 miles too far last time, but she had run quite well going shorter prior to that and figures to appreciate the cut-back while getting lasix for the second time.  Perhaps #8 Little Journey will also appreciate getting cut back a bit in distance after disappointing last time behind Premium, but she'd still be tough to take at any short price.  #7 Bohemian Dance has failed to live up to her big pedigree, but she drops out of stakes company to a more likely spot, and she does seem to have improved since getting lasix over here.
Selections:  1-5-8-7
Race 8:  #7 Seal Team Four contested the pace going shorter when returned from a layoff last month.  Figures tighter with that one behind him, and new trainer gets a perfect 100 rating second off the claim and a 97 first-time lasix.  Not thrilled that #6 Woke Up Tired has needed another 101 days since returning from a layoff at a demanding distance at Saratoga, but he showed enough as an early season 3yo to follow and is a dangerous horse if ready to start showing improvement.  #2 Spider Roll is a very short price on the ML, and can certainly win, but he had a perfect trip before running down a distance-challenged Keen's Cupla last time, and we'll be against him if he is indeed a heavy favorite.
Selections:  7-6-2-5
Race 9:  #2 Simple Love drops in price for Clement after missing narrowly for $50k last time.  Similar effort makes her tough, and she has the tactical speed to land a perfect trip from her inside post.  #8 Outer Orbit was torched by racing too close to a fast pace when up in class for her most recent start on turf.  Can do better at this level.  #9 Chow Fun has back races that make her the horse to beat in this field, but could go either way after failing to show up with anything when last seen on the drop at Saratoga.  Drops again after 88 days off. 
Selections:  2-8-9-1