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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for December 10

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Wednesday December 10th
Race 1:  Pace Projector gives no advantage to any particular running style, but there is plenty of speed signed on to this $20k claimer for NY-breds, and it places all of #1 Goodtolook, #3 Seek to Destroy and #5 Pretension up on the pace together.  With the chance of a contested pace, we will focus our play on #4 Be Bullish and #7 Won Great Classic.  Be Bullish is rapidly approaching his 10th birthday, but he can still race effectively, and was a nose away from winning all three starts on the inner during the last meeting here.  Won Great Classic also loves the inner, having posted 8 of his 10 career wins here, and has proven capable from off the pace this year.  He was badly compromised while rating behind a slow pace last time.
Selections:  7-4-5-1
Race 2:  #8 Fictionalcharacter gets a rider change after two straight unlucky trips where he wound up blocked in the stretch.  Has little speed and no real acceleration, but should be able to stay in the clear from this post.  Won't be getting another chance out of this race.  #7 Zabaione makes just his second career start (a positive in this field) and he exited debut with a legit excuse after being kept in a five-wide trip before tiring.  #1 Hushhushmushmush is likely to go favored for the 5th time in a row.  Perhaps today's the day.
Selections:  8-7-1-2
Race 3:  #4 Soul Opposition drops to lowest level yet after settling for a clear-cut 2nd best behind an odds-on winner when last seen at Saratoga.  Lone wet track try resulted in her only career win, along with her career top TFUS Speed Figure of 77.  #2 Absolute Beauty had trouble at the start and a wide trip when unable to impact the 1-2 finishers at this level last time.  Capable of showing more speed with a clean break, and that would play well in this field, with Pace Projector favoring runners up close to the pace.  #5 Utopian Wife has improved out of town for Rudy.  Would still need to produce a faster race in order to be effective here, and she is worth playing against if her status as the ML favorite holds up.
Selections:  4-2-5-1A
Race 4:  #2 Mrs. Sunday finished with interest after racing greenly and wide in debut, which came over a speed-favoring track.  Adds blinkers for second career start.  #4 Midnight Champagne stepped things up off the trainer change, improving to new top speed figure while clearly 2nd best to an odds-on, front-running winner.  Horse to beat with effort similar to that one.  #5 Moolit Posse was steadied away last and outrun in her debut.  Eligible to show much more in this spot for trainer who tends to have more success with second-time starters.  #3 Miss Bellamy is out of the dam Mister Crafty, who was a fast multiple stakes-winning sprinter in her career, and she debuts for a trainer who has sent out several "live" first-time starters this year, despite winning with just one of them.  
Selections:  2-4-5-3
Race 5:  #4 Italian Rules was overpowered on the pace by better horses last time, which seemed to be more of a problem for him than the wet track.  Is capable of taking up a tracking position, which will play well in this field.  #2 Cay to Pomeroy has dangerous speed and is a serious threat to wire this field this time for Michelle Nevin (perfect 100 rating off the claim).  Does have the speedy #1 Shankopotomus to deal with. Shankopotomus figures under the gun from the rail, and moves up on a wet track.  #8 Moonluck drops for Jacobson and is drawn well outside, but this is no easy $12.5k claimer, and he may need better than he has been bringing to the track lately.  
Selections:  4-2-8-7
Race 6:  #6 So Scott is the fastest horse in the race overall, having earned 9 TFUS Speed Figures over 100 on dirt in his career (rest of the field has 1, that in #7 Went the Day Well's Kentucky Derby 4th).  Makes second start back from the layoff, and he was badly compromised while wide in a paceless race last time.  #8 Ultimate Empire enters at just 2-for-21 lifetime, but he has posted both of those wins over wet tracks, and he has more speed than he was able to show last time after hitting the gate and getting away last in the field.  #5 Decieved may be on the verge of a big winter on the inner as he starts back off the layoff.  Lightly raced 3yo holds plenty of upside.  #4 Saturday Appeal is an infrequent winner, but he has been in good form for most of this year, has speed, and handles a wet track.
Selections:  6-8-5-4
Race 7:  #5 Brendan G exits clear-cut victory over next-out winner Brass Pear and projects for similar pace-tracking trip in this spot.  #4 Call Wil turns back out of game try contesting the pace throughout the full mile last time.  Owns field's top last-out TFUS Speed Figure for that effort.  #2 Classic Salsa was claimed back by Jacobson out of pace-pressing try in race that fell apart last time.  #7 Kitchen Police is making what is essentially his 3yo debut for a top trainer, and he has good speed from a good post.  
Selections:  5-4-3-2
Race 8:  #6 Doubledown Again is not the best horse in this tough allowance/optional claiming sprint, but he has shown improved form since being claimed by Michelle Nevin, posting ascending TFUS Speed Figures of 93-98-103, and exits a game try on the pace vs. the talented Pazolini.  May be catching the talented pair of #2 Sage Valley and #5 Marriedtothemusic at the right time.  Marriedtothemusic is just starting back off the layoff, and is likely targeting some of the better races for sprinters here over the winter.  
Selections:  6-5-2-1A
Race 9:  ML favorites #7 H Man and #9 Unauthorized figure to be the logical choices in the finale as they drop in class.  Unauthorized has faced a pair of tough fields to start, and he goes for a hot trainer.  H Man wheels back quickly after dropping his rider at the start here 5 days ago, and he altered course sharply in the stretch two starts back.  #5 No Texting will switch to dirt for the first time after beginning his career on turf.  Flashed plenty of speed on that surface, and his dam was a much better dirt horse.
Selections:  9-5-7-3  

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TimeformUS Analysis for December 7

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday December 7th
Race 1:  #5 Home to Carrowkeel is dropping all the way down off of a layoff, and she has never run on dirt, but she flashed plenty of potential on debut despite racing very greenly after trouble at the start.  Likely to attract attention in the opener for an excellent trainer, but it's the right kind of field.  #1 Skinny Margarita has a longer layoff to overcome, and she was pulled up and vanned off when last seen.  Returns with drop to lowest level yet, and she was competitive with better horses last year.  #6 Hot On Ice seems to have attained a level below what is likely to be required here, but she has speed and just failed to last after holding a lead all the way down to the stripes last time.
Selections:  5-1-6-4
Race 2:  #2 Frosty Bay is a talented turf runner, but she has handled dirt in the past, as well, and she earned a 92 TFUS Speed Figure in her last start on the main track.  Won't view class drop as a negative, with turf season coming to an end, as she is out of conditions on grass and is unlikely to be winning many stakes races on that surface.  #1 Seven Stars is off the claim for dangerous connections.  Stretch back out in distance poses no problem, and she handled a sloppy track last time, which may come into play considering the forecast around here for the weekend.  #4 Penthouse Party has been in too tough since being claimed over the summer but fits better at this level and is competitive with one of her better races.  ML favorite #7 Ocean Boulevard took advantage of a perfect trip into a contested pace last time, and she strikes us as a horse who is better as a closing sprinter.
Selections:  2-1-4-7
Race 3:  #5 Andromeda's Risk seems to have landed in the right kind of spot to pick up her third career win, and she will likely be a short price.  Main competition figures to come from #1 Jealous (2-for-29 lifetime) and #7 Why Not Her (2-for-22), which only makes her position stronger.  Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead and places Andromeda's Risk up there with #3 Start it Up, whose top TFUS Speed Figure since returning from a layoff is 46.  #6 Silver Silence pulled off an upset in the mud two starts back and was in way over her head last time, but she has to turn all the way back to 5.5 furlongs.
Selections:  5-1-7-6
Race 4:  #4 Tower East drops in class for the first time on dirt for a top trainer.  Hasn't raced effectively on turf recently, but his debut sprinting on dirt was not a poor effort.  #6 Bert Stone raced greenly when 2nd best in Keeneland debut, but still earned standout TFUS Speed Figure of 72 for the effort.  New trainer pulls solid 90 rating with 2yo sprinters and a perfect 100 with juvenile maiden claimers.  #3 Bensational can come forward in his second career start after breaking a bit slowly first time out.  
Selections:  4-6-3-8
Race 5:  #2 Taylor Jagger stretches back out for first start off the claim by Nick Esler, for whom she won 4 of her 7 starts on dirt between September 2013 and January 2014.  Toughest competition may come from the pair of Parx shippers from Patricia Farro, #4 My Wild Gata and #5 Sweets Galore.  Of those two we prefer the latter, who has been keeping better company, though they both seem fine with wet tracks. 
Selections:  2-5-4-1
Race 6:  #3 Onthecurve finished with interest at a big price in the mud first time out, and he encountered trouble in a couple of different spots last time before racing on well to be 2nd best.  #4 Constantine is sure to attract attention as he drops again off the change to Jacobson.  Has done little running to this point while trained by Baffert, but he faced better horses in pair of NY starts earlier this year.  #2 Alice and Trixie has a long layoff to overcome, but that's one of the things Contessa does well (76 rating). Was competitive prior to being sidelined.  #1 Boss Daddy has speed and handled a wet track two starts back, but is exiting a race from which we aren't looking to play horses back. 
Selections:  3-4-2-1
Race 7:  #2 Brother Ralphie showed some life back on dirt last time, contesting a pace that ultimately fell apart.  Won debut on this track while also showing speed, and Pace Projector indicates that the runners close to the early lead will have the advantage in this race.  #9 Sun Storm hasn't been able to get back to solid debut since enduring a long layoff.  Chased a much better horse in Brass Pear last time, and he has shown the kind of speed that can be dangerous in this race.  #6 King Gettigan drops all the way down after trying much tougher since long overdue maiden win and is the horse to beat.   
Selections:  2-6-9-10
Race 8:  #5 Lunar Rover has handled wet tracks very well to this point, and he seems the most reliable runner in this field around two turns over distance.  #1 Misconnect and #7 Casiguapo may be the most talented runners in the field, but they may not be at their best as the distances increase.  #6 Lawmaker has run better than it may appear in some spots, and he has been in pretty tough in pair of starts off the layoff--behind Liam's Map and Three Alarm Fire.  
Selections:  5-6-1-7
Race 9:  #8 Socialsaul's winning streak finally came to an end last time, but he still ran well that day in what was a tougher field of claimers than he had been facing, and a tougher one than he'll be facing today.  #2 Lure of the South drops all the way down to a level where he figures more competitive, though he may be up against it from a pace perspective.  #4 Lubango also drops down looking to get back to his good form, which would make him a serious rival for Socialsaul.  
Selections:  8-2-4-5

TimeformUS Analysis for December 6

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday December 6th
Race 1:  Pick 5 kicks off with 2yo maiden fillies stretching out around two turns.  #1 Midnight Citra will be a short price, and likely difficult to beat, from her inside post.  She has run all of the fastest races on dirt (TFUS Speed Figures of 78-74-82, next highest dirt figure in the field is 65) and projects to be the clear speed.  #4 Kayleigh's Road exits the same race as Midnight Citra, which was only her debut.  She is eligible to improve quickly, and her dam was a route winner with a 103 TFUS Speed Figure top a few years ago.  #6 Bonnet Plume has raced on through the stretch of both career starts so far while unable to have a real impact on the outcome either time.  Gets lasix for the first time. 
Selections:  1-4-6-3
Race 2:  #1 Kathy's Humor was a big price when 2nd best to her winning stablemate on debut here last month, but she ran well in her own right despite some traffic trouble in the stretch.  Trainer has been hot since racing shifted to Aqueduct, and he has been getting strong performances from his 2yos recently.  #8 Fenwick Hall was the favorite in Kathy's Humor's debut, and she was very game after contesting the pace throughout.  Has drawn well on the outside once again.  #3 Whodattcat was also in that November 8th race, and she took plenty of money before getting stuck in a wide trip for a trainer who isn't known for first-out success.  First-time starters #4 Kacy Lauren, #5 Bourbonstateofmind and #6 Zippa Tequila are all eligible to be runners for top barns, but this is no easy spot.  
Selections:  1-8-3-5
Race 3: #6 Night Patrol had gotten good prior to hitting the sidelines last summer, and he made a positive impression when returned from that long layoff over a demanding 7-furlong distance at Churchill Downs.  Is nicely drawn outside and may turn out to be a smart claim for these connections.  #5 The Big Deluxe is a need-the-lead type, but he's tough when he gets things his way, and Pace Projector indicates that he can be in early control here.  #1 Jeter has been a consistent presence in these races for several different trainers, and he has looked good in his last two races, including that last one when stuck on a wide chase off of a slow pace in allowance company.  
Selections:  6-5-1-3
Race 4:  #1 Son of Dixie doesn't figure to have any issue with the stretch-out in distance, and he came away from his most recent race an unlucky loser after altering course around horses and winding up along a dead rail in the stretch to fall just short.  #7 Grand Strand hasn't panned out after a somewhat promising start, but he was outside all the way on a track that was favoring the inside here 6 days ago and can do better.  #6 Grandpa Len is impossible to take on top at 1-for-26 lifetime, but he will generally run a race that will put him in the mix, and his better form is on dirt. 
Selections:  1-7-6-8
Race 5:  Pick 5 will close out with an almost universal single in #4 Big Lute.  He has earned layover TFUS Speed Figures of 91 and 92 for his last two starts, and we are not trying to beat him.  His uncoupled stablemate, #1 Artemus Paperboy, exits a winning effort and seems the second likeliest winner, which only makes Big Lute's position that much stronger.  #3 Private Irving A rallied to long overdue win last month, but he has some early speed in his arsenal and is a prior winner on the inner dirt. 
Selections:  4-3-1-6 
Race 6:  Opening leg of the Late Pick 4 likely to have a much different look come post time, as a ban on shippers from Finger Lakes (there are 4 of them entered here) is going to prevent those horse from running.  That being the case, we'll try #8 Man of Mystery, who never got involved in fast-paced race off the maiden win last time, but earned solid TFUS Speed Figures in his prior two starts and projects for a nice tracking trip in this race.  #9 Thnxtomyuncle and #11 Groupthink are competitive on form, but are both tough to take on top at this point.  #7 Imposing Figure steps up off of front-running maiden win and will benefit from the likely scratches, but he figures to take plenty of action and is going to have to run better than he did last time to win this.  For a longshot to include, #1 Native Hero has run well enough to be competitive here and may have come out of no-show effort last time with an issue as he went to sidelines for 119 days following that race. 
Selections:  8-11-1-9
Race 7:  #1A Huge Asset is likely to draw in as his entrymate will be unable to ship down from Finger Lakes, and he has the kind of early speed that can be dangerous in this field.  Recent TFUS Speed Figures in the 80s make him strongly competitive in here.  #2 Salisbury Knight is the ML favorite from a good post and he owns the top last-out speed figure in the field (90).  We didn't like #10 Spider Roll last time, as he exited a perfect-trip win over a blank field in getting maiden win, but he may have been compromised while rating in a race dominated on the front end.  
Selections:  1A-2-10-5
Race 8:  Pace duel may be looming between speedy pair of #1 Bridgehampton and #4 Winning Image, who are the best alternatives to ML favorite #6 Willet in the $100k Garland of Roses.  We are having a hard time trusting Willet based on her current form, though we acknowledge that she may be tough to hold off.  Winning Image is 14-for-32 lifetime and exits 106 TFUS Speed Figure win in the slop at Parx, something to keep in mind considering the forecast around here.  We have been waiting for Bridgehampton to step up and be competitive in tougher races since her blowout win back in May with a 103 figure.  She has run only twice since, both times in tougher spots.  
Selections:  1-6-4-7
Race 9:  #8 Worbothor makes second career start for a hot trainer while dropping from MSW to MCL (100 Trainer Rating for Steve Klesaris), cutting back from route to sprint (100 rating), and switching from turf to dirt (98 rating).  Good enough for us in this field.  #4 El Viejo Verde will need to find some stamina, but he has plenty of speed and gets a positive trainer change for this.  #11 B. B.'s Remington bombed at a short price last time, but his race two back makes him the horse to beat, and that came over a sloppy track.   
Selections:  8-4-11-5

TimeformUS Analysis for December 5

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Friday December 5th
Race 1:  #4 Bigger Picture has managed to run his race on all three surfaces, and he did well to make up ground after stumbling at the start of his last dirt race, which came in a tougher field of open company claimers at Saratoga.  #1 Solly's Mischief is consistent and has run the best recent TFUS Speed Figures in the field on dirt, but he's better going shorter.  Still, he may be the horse to beat if he's the half of the entry to start.  #6 Gaining Ground has fared poorly vs. better horses since arriving in NY.  Drops again.  
Selections:  4-1-6-2
Race 2:  Perhaps it was the wet track that moved her up, but #6 Bella Forever stepped up her game in her first start for this trainer.  She ran the other speeds out of the race and just failed to last over an odds-on closer at the end.  Has to stretch out, but may be dangerous at this level with a similar show of speed.  #3 Time for Harlan is the horse to beat, and the ML favorite, as she plummets in class for a good trainer.  Has done little running in pair of recent starts rained off the grass, but sometimes it is all about the horses you are running against.  The others are hard to take, as the only entrants below 20/1 on the ML (#1 You Take the Cake and #2 Shewreckstheplace) have combined for 0-for-57 to this point.
Selections:  6-3-2-1
Race 3:  #1A Carameaway is the horse to beat in this solid field of NY-bred allowance runners.  She has been in career-best form recently, posting consecutive lifetime top TFUS Speed Figures of 90-97-98 for her last 3 races (2 of them convincing wins).  #5 Miss Da Point has a layoff to overcome, but she loves the inner dirt (4-for-9 on this track lifetime), and she has defeated Carameaway the last two times they have met.  Will be meeting a new and improved version of that runner in this spot.  #2 Lady Gracenote is competitive with her best race, but she's better going a bit shorter and lacks early speed.  
Selections:  1A-5-2-3
Race 4:  #8 Sky Fortune cut a solid pace on a dead rail and gave way in the stretch of off-the-turf mile last time.  Cuts back and drops in class for trainer pulling solid 81 rating MSW-to-MCL.  #7 Saluda has consistently shown speed and come up short through 8 career starts.  Drops to lowest level yet, and is going to find the right field one of these days.  #6 Krista's Persona also has speed, and she also drops in class for the first time while turning back in distance.  Trainer has been on a tough run (6 wins from last 50 starters), but he gets a perfect 100 rating in sprints at Aqueduct.  
Selections:  8-7-6-3
Race 5:  Be interesting to see if trainer Chris Englehart elects to scratch one of his runners, as he has two entered, and they both have potent early speed.  #1 La Bella Valeria is on the inside, and she has picked up her game since being claimed by Englehart and returned from a layoff.  She posted new career top TFUS Speed Figure of 92 for blowout win two starts back, and then stayed gamely after getting the best of a pace duel in allowance company last time.  #4 Go Olivia Go is facing tougher here, but she has been holding solid form throughout the year, and she can take advantage if the pace gets heated.  #5 Your Move is the other speedy Englehart runner.  She's 2-for-2 over the inner dirt and is second off the layoff after failing to hold over a speed-favoring track at Penn National last month.  #3 Violet Hour drops out of open-company allowance races.  Has managed to run her race sprinting on dirt right along.  
Selections:  1-5-4-3
Race 6:  #5 Freudex kept after a fast pace before taking over and was ultimately closed down late by Wildniteattheopera, who returned to win again.  83 TFUS Speed Figure earned for that effort tops the field on dirt by a clear margin, and he has the added advantage of being the main speed.  #7 Readyheartandsoul figures to be his main competition, but he was far behind Freudex last time, and was with a gold rail all the way when second best two starts back.  #4 Rock On Chacho may have needed one first time out, and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with second-time starters. 
Selections:  5-4-7-3
Race 7:  #2 Kilnockagain has had few starts at this level, and she was down on the deeper inside all the way when tiring for $20k last time.  Has a top race that will put her there, and she figures to be a price in this wide-open race.  #5 Darling Bridezilla may be the horse to beat, and will certainly be tough if getting back to her pre-layoff form, but she came up empty off the bench and is immediately cut in half by Jacobson.  #3 Inaflash has the best recent form, winning two of her last four starts, and she projects for a good trip.  
Selections:  2-5-3-7
Race 8:  #11 Quick Money was a suspicious drop by Jacobson when defeated at a short price last time, but he went aggressively to the lead in that spot and actually ran a winning race.  Confidently hiked up in class by Rudy, who gets strong 98 rating off the claim, and he is better from off the pace, a style that will play well in this field.  #10 Leilani's Ticket is also a capable closer, and he finished a game 2nd to the solid Writingonthewall last time with a 92 TFUS Speed Figure.  #1 Laila's Jazz will have to work out a trip from the rail, but he has a versatile running style and is taking a big drop back down in class.
Selections:  11-10-1-2
Race 9:  #6 Swivel was bumped between horses at the start and wound up last early before racing on well in a race that held together up front.  Has solid Breeding Rating of 83 for dirt routes, and won't need to come forward much off of that debut to factor in this race.  #1 H Man looked green early and then altered course sharply out to the center of the track in the stretch when behind both #7 Arctic King and #10 Beyond the Green last time.  Can close the gap on them with a better trip and has drawn well on the inside.  #2 Buddy the Elf and #5 Persuasive Devil have run the best races to date, but they both have to stretch out here at short prices, which may mitigate whatever edge they have. 
Selections:  6-2-5-1