Friday, November 14, 2014
Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday November 15th
Race 1: Wide-open race to kick off the Saturday card. We'll have to wait for Jacobson's decision regarding his two runners, #1 Wealth to Me and #1A Moonluck, both of whom have Cornelio named. We can be against the latter, but the former figures a big player.
#4 Non Stop continues to go well, and he has won back-to-back races, albeit with perfect trips.
#5 Street Shark was on short rest when giving futile chase to a pair of next-out winners last time. Has a versatile running style and he fits well here. #7 Joking is facing a bit tougher after dominating restricted claimers over this track earlier in the meet, but he has drawn well once again and has run figures in the past that are competitive here.
Race 2: Not sure if turf racing will be in play, which may not matter to #7 Abilio, who figures to be tough on either surface. Has been a bit better on the main track recently, but his back turf form is too much for this group, and this is a pretty good spot, at least on that surface.
#9 Legendary King arrived from Suffolk in good form, and he ran well on turf at Belmont two starts back. On dirt, Abilio will have to deal with #12 Market Blaster, who returns to NY in solid form. #2 M J Plus, who is entered for turf, is much better-suited to dirt racing.
Race 3: #9 B. B.'s Remington ran very well on the drop last time, chasing a fast pace and taking over before it ultimately collapsed late. Good post. Effort similar to that last one makes him tough.
#8 Jacapo was also part of that fast pace on October 23, and he paid the price for his early exertions. #7 Golden Bay is a first-time starter for a dangerous trainer. Dam won 2 of her 3 career starts and has dropped a couple of multiple winners already.
Race 4: Will have to await scratches before making final decisions here, as Jacobson has an entry with Cornelio Velasquez named on both. If it's #1A Patriot's Voyage who starts, we will not try to beat him.
His entrymate, #1 Bobby V, is first off the claim after dueling the pace in a race that was won last-to-first on October 12. #9 Upward drops in class again after disappointing in the slop, but he is capable of a race that would be very tough in here, and he has bounced back from dismal performances before.
Race 5: #1 Runaway Posse took advantage of a fast pace when rolling to convincing maiden win going shorter, but he also ran quite well around 2 turns in turf debut at Saratoga, and he has the added advantage of being lightly raced in this group.
#3 Macagone has disappointed in the past, but he has dangerous speed and endured a tough trip last time after missing the break. #7 Boston Strong cut the pace in a race that collapsed, but he may be better off from away from the pace, and the blinkers come off for this.
Race 6: #5 Call Daddy faced a tough task chasing a well-meant first-time starter in Requite all the way to the top of the stretch before tiring badly late. Chased a fast pace on turf in his next start, but he's better suited to dirt racing (Breeding Rating for dirt sprints 81, for turf sprints 73).
#7 Overthespeedlimit did well while giving wide chase to a front-running winner in muddy track debut, and he just missed at the end while finishing well clear of the others. Steps up in class for his second start, but Dutrow is among the best in the game with second-time starters (99 rating).
#6 Whateveryouwant has speed and has run the fastest races to this point (last 3 TFUS Speed Figures of 80-79-80 are the top three numbers in the field), but lacks the upside of some of his rivals.
Race 7: Grade 3 Red Smith on turf goes directly through the multiple Grade 1 winning #4 Big Blue Kitten. He came up just short in the Canadian International last time, but he approached his career top TFUS Speed Figure in that game runner-up effort.
#8 Legendary has been in top form recently, winning four of his last five while improving his speed figures. Has handled distance in the past, and has more tactical speed than the favorite. #7 Calvados ships in for a dangerous trainer, and he endured a very tough trip before settling for second best in the Laurel Turf Cup.
Race 8: Both #1 Ke in Motion and #3 Leroy Jr. have speed, and both were badly compromised when involved in bumping from the gate and unable to establish forward position on October 25th. Leroy Jr. has run the fastest races in the field, but he has now lost all three starts this year at short prices and is getting to be tough to take.
Ke in Motion impressed in taking his NY debut back in March with an 89 TFUS Speed Figure, and he may be able to do better as he makes his second start back from a layoff. #5 Mighty Zealous is lightly raced and eligible to improve as he returns from a layoff of his own.
Race 9: #11 Fourstar Crook was away last and went wide before finishing with interest in a race that was dominated up front. Would not be a surprise to see her step it up second time out.
#6 Hot City Girl was outfinished late by both #5 Broken Border and Miss Matzoball (who came back to air impressively in her next start), but she did all the dirty work in there, chasing the odds-on winner all the way.
#12 Congress Park has run well in each of her first two starts, and she was compromised when electing to rate in behind a pair of rivals who went 1-2 around the track last time.