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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for November 19

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Wednesday November 19th
Race 1:  Wednesday card kicks off with a heavy favorite on the ML in #5 Jimmy Soul.  He enters here directly off of an easy maiden win with an 82 TFUS Speed Figure, which represents the top recent figure earned on dirt by a clear margin.  Handled a wet track without issue in posting that win, as well, which is something to note considering the forecast around here.  #4 Brother Ralphie may be the best alternative as he switches back to dirt in his return from a layoff.  Lone win came in debut over fast dirt, and he earned a solid 75 speed figure that day.   #2 Player to Be Named disappointed last time after making an easy lead.  Drops in claiming price for second start back from a break, and projects to be on the early lead once again, but will have to do it against males.  
Selections:  5-4-3-2
Race 2:  Excellent maiden race for older fillies and mares sprinting 6.5 furlongs.  #4 Mallory Street flashed potential right out of the gate as a 2yo, but hit the sidelines after running into Miss Behaviour in her second start.  Seemed no worse for wear in running second to the promising True Romance off the layoff with an 88 TFUS Speed Figure.  #3 Full of Sugar is just starting back from a long layoff, but she earned her career top speed figure of 93 off of workouts in her debut, and she has faced nothing but graded stakes quality rivals to this point.  #2 Hijaab earned a competitive figure in defeat two starts back.  She came away with no excuse that day, however, and it is a bit disconcerting to see these connections run her out of town in both starts since her debut.  
Selections:  4-3-2-6
Race 3:  Seems a strong likelihood that we will be off the turf Wednesday, but if we're on, #4 Lil' Zilla displayed a surprising change of tactics in her most recent turf start, blitzing clear on a fast pace (note pace figures/fractions shaded red) before tiring.  Horse to beat is #11 Maura's Pass, who is beginning to run out of chances and has been her own worst enemy on the track while proving a difficult ride.  On dirt, since we have no MTOs,  we can only guess at what the field may look like after scratches.  #9 Bi Light of Day has run the best dirt races of the group to this point, but #5 Senso may be best suited to dirt.
Selections:  4-11-10-9
Race 4:  $12.5k claimer over 1 mile on dirt goes straight through #4 Socialsaul, who is jammed right back in at the same level by Jacobson while looking for four in a row.  This will mark his fourth start in 31 days, and we may simply keep seeing this until he begins to lose, or is claimed.  Best alternative to him is #1 Holy Invader.  He's plenty fast enough with his good race, is second off the layoff, and was entered under the waiver rule in his return, so his connections could get him that race without risk of losing him.  
Selections:  1-4-3-2
Race 5:  Tough call with #2 Midnight Taboo, who has returned with two starts off of a layoff of 228 days and finished last both times.  Those races came vs. much better than this (Race Ratings of 106 and 102 vs. today's 91); he is now third off the layoff along with the drop in class.  If he is unable to perform competitively any longer, the race becomes wide open.  #3 Sir Bond has yet to win over a sprint distance, but he has run well twice at this restricted claiming level since arriving in NY.  #5 Run for Logistics projects to be on a clear early lead, and that could make him very dangerous.  A wet track may not help his cause.
Selections:  2-3-5-7  
Race 6:  #12 Precious Franca has been at her best with some pace to close into, and she should get some of that here, assuming the field stays intact.  Form appears to have tailed off since the claim, but she was against a speed-favoring track two back, and stuck on a wide chase in the slop last time.  #7 Mama Zee has the fastest races, but she's a speed, and her dismal recent effort is surrounded by a pair of vet scratches.  Re-claim by Rudy viewed as a positive.  #5 Rosie My Way drops off the claim, but she fits here with her typical effort, and she has been up against it in back-to-back slow-paced races leading to this.  
Selections:  12-7-5-11
Race 7:  #6 Lady Bling impressed in winning debut, and she had little chance when trailing early in slow-paced Grade 3 behind Lady Eli in second start.  If it stays on turf, and the field stays intact, Pace Projector indicates she will have a fast pace out in front of her today.  #2 Loon River made a promising turf debut when engaging in a pace duel sprinting, and she stretched out effectively to break her maiden last time.  On dirt, #8 Building Permit figures tough to beat after open-lengths win in the mud to break her maiden last time.  
Selections:  6-2-5-8
Race 8:  #7 Whispering was rated out to the back of the field behind slow pace two starts back, and we thought she ran a winning race when sent out to the lead on a solid pace when stretched out to a mile last time.  Like her turning back, and there is plenty of speed signed on to this field.  #5 Irish Whisper found a tough spot for her return from a layoff.  This is better, and she can run from behind a pace.  #9 Storm Swept kept up a game chase after the talented Savvy Sassy (now 2-for-2 lifetime) before settling for second best last time.  Good sign that she earned a slight new TFUS Speed Figure top of 96 for that effort, and her trainer gets strong 97 rating third off the layoff.
Selections:  7-5-9-6
Race 9:  On turf, #3 Fresh Wine appeared a firster in need of a race on debut while running in spots before getting outkicked in a strong field.  Mott tends to get much better performances from his 2yos with racing.  #10 Thunders Fury may also come forward quickly in his second start after showing fine tactical speed in his debut.  Young trainer has been on a good run, and he too has shown a tendency to do better with second-time starters.  #2 High Noon Rider put in an early, wide run last time before flattening out at the end.  Gets lasix for the first time today.  On dirt, #14 Awesome Alex may be the one to beat after a pair of narrow defeats out of town.  #15 Net Gain is another Mott second-time starter, and he finished with interest after getting outrun by fast early pace in debut.  
Selections:  3-10-2-8

Big Apple Babies for Wednesday, November 19

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Race 9, 2-year-olds, 1 mile, turf, 4:12pm


WEST EIGHTH STREET (gray/roan colt, Bernstein – Red Melody, by Runaway Groom) is a half-brother to last year’s New York-bred Champion Two-Year-Old, Wired Bryan (Stormy Atlantic). Precocious Wired Bryan won four of his six starts, including the G2 Sanford and a pair of state-bred stakes, and was the narrowly-beaten runner-up in the G2 Saratoga Special for the same owner-trainer combination. Stakes placed Red Melody is also the dam of Run Red Run (Afternoon Deelites) who was stakes-placed four times at three and four against fellow NY-breds, including a third-place finish in the Empire Classic. All five of Red Melody’s foals to race have at least two wins to their credit.

Owner: Anstu Stables

Trainer: Michael Dilger

Jockey: Dylan Davis



ARCH IN THE PARK (dark bay/brown colt, Arch – Century Park, by General Meeting) is the first foal from his dam, a graded stakes winner of over $230,000. Century Park broke her maiden in November of her two-year-old year after hitting the board in three of four prior starts. That win came at 1 1/16 on turf, while her biggest win, the G3 Santa Ysabel, came at the same distance on all-weather. She also took the TVG California Cup Distance Handicap on turf and picked up additional stakes placings on turf and dirt. Century Park is a half-sister to Racing Aptitude (Aptitude) a stakes winner at two and three who was also stakes placed at six this year. This is also the family of precocious two-year-old Career Collection, a dual G2-winner at two who finished second in the 1997 G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and G1 Hollywood Starlet.

Owner: Live Oak Plantation

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez

Sales history: $435,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling


MIZNER PARK(bay gelding, Discreetly Mine – Miss Jeanne Cat, by Tabasco Cat) is a half-brother to Murjan (Officer), who was named Peruvian Champion Imported Colt at “three.” Murjan, born in 2008 in the Northern Hemisphere, won the 2010 Peruvian Two Thousand Guineas against Southern Hemisphere-born three-year-olds.  Their dam, Miss Jeanne Cat, won her first two starts at two, including the Time to Leave Stakes. Second dam Few Choice Words is a full-sister multiple graded stakes winner Nannerl, herself the dam of graded stakes winners Magicalmysterycat and Burmilla.


Owner: MeB Racing Stables and Brooklyn Boyz Stables

Trainer: Dominick Schettino


Sales history: $25,000 Keeneland November weanling; $110,000 Fasig-Tipton July yearling






* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction



TimeformUS Race Analysis for November 16

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday November 15th
Race 1:  #1 Ring Knocker made a highly favorable impression, even while coming away second-best in each of her first two starts.  Grade 1 try last month was never going to work out, but she is supposed to be tough back in with maidens.
 #5 Steely Magnolia is a half to this year's Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama winner Stopchargingmaria, who was also a multiple graded stakes winning 2yo.  Debuts with lasix on.  
#6 Il Mulino is from the family of Derby winner Giacomo and is a half-sister to Calistoga, who was a debut winner for these connections last year.  #3 Embellish the Lace brought $320k as a yearling and is a half to Travers winner Afleet Express.  
Selections:  1-5-6-3
Race 2:  There appears to be plenty of speed signed on for this $100k stakes for 2yo fillies, but #3 My Super Nova is projected to be fastest of them all early.  Earned big 93 TFUS Speed Figure on debut when dueling #2 Alexandrie into defeat, which also happens to be the only time she has run over a fast track.  #
5 Sandra impressed when burying maidens with a tracking trip in second career start, and she may appreciate getting turned back in distance after tiring going a mile last time.
 #4 The Lewis Dinner took no prisoners when dusting maidens last time, but she has raced effectively from off the pace as well, and that style may suit this race better. 
Selections:  3-5-4-1
Race 3:  #8 Los Borrachos has yet to win on turf from 3 starts, but he has run well each time while feeling unlucky more than once.  One more chance.  
#5 Ironicus was a bit sluggish off the layoff and had too much to do late, but he put in a strong run from the top of the stretch, and figures more dangerous if able to keep himself in range early this time.
 #7 Breakeven Analysis has run well enough to contend here, but he may be overbet in this spot after encountering phantom trouble in the stretch last time.  
Selections:  8-5-7-1
Race 4:  #7 Harlans Six was unlucky to run into a sharp first-time starter when dropped in class for the first time, and had to settle for second best.  Returns at the same $40k claiming level, but has found a much weaker field this time (Race Rating of 55 for today's race, as opposed to 65 for that last one).  
#5 Laura's Patriot took some money in her maiden claiming debut upstate but couldn't impact in a race that found the 1-2-3 finishers racing that way throughout.  Trainer gets perfect 100 rating with second-time starters (from a limited sample) and a solid 82 when adding blinkers.
 #4 Secret Militaire takes big drop in class after encountering a fast pace in MSW debut.  
Selections:  7-5-4-3
Race 5:  #11 Frogman Mel has had constant trouble at the break, and it has cost him dearly more than once, but he was badly compromised at the start last time through no fault of his own.  He's getting a little tiresome at this point, but this is a good spot, should he draw in.  
#1 Wind of Bosphorus gave way after chasing the pace while wide from a tough post last time.  Better post this time, and he has the speed to take advantage.
 #9 Toy Cannon seems to prefer minor awards, but he tends to show up and run every time, and he'll likely be hanging around again should something fall into his lap.
Selections:  11-1-9-6
Race 6:  #5 Liam's Map tipped his hand with a strong debut performance, running second to the talented Three Alarm Fire, and he came right back to bury maidens under his own power over this trip.  He's a short price in here, but figures a handful if continuing on current path.
 #6 Round disappointed last time even while earning new top TFUS Speed Figure of 100.  Has flashed enough potential to be given another chance, and he figures to have no problem with the added distance.  
#1 Lawmaker was off a long layoff when making his first start for Pletcher last month, and he was way against a gold-rail track when making his last start for Chad Brown prior to the layoff.
Selections:  5-6-1-7
Race 7:  #6 Fourstar Crook was away last and went wide before finishing with interest in a race that was dominated up front.  Would not be a surprise to see her step it up second time out, especially if Pace Projector is right about there being a fast pace.  
#4 Congress Park has run well in each of her first two starts, and she was compromised when electing to rate in behind a pair of rivals who went 1-2 around the track last time.
 #10 R Y Squadron stayed in off-the-turfer last month and could only chase dominating front-running winner around the track.  Pedigree is better-suited to turf (89 Breeding Rating for turf routes), being by Stormy Atlantic and out of a dam whose 2 career wins both came on grass.
Selections:  6-4-10-12
Race 8:  #4 Tizquick has shown potential from day one, and he was confidently handled while overcoming a slow pace to defeat maidens last time with an 85 TFUS Speed Figure.  
#5 Good Luck Gus is the horse to beat turning back after giving futile chase to the talented Ostrolenka over a mile last time.  Think he'll be better off sprinting, and Rosario sticks with him over Tizquick.  
#1 Breakin the Fever will also appreciate turning back out of the Sleepy Hollow, and Pace Projector likes his chances of catching a favorable scenario.  
Selections:  4-5-1-7
Race 9:  #3 Coexist ran well from a tracking position while settling for second-best off the layoff, and he was stuck wide in a paceless race last time.  Projects for a better trip this time for a trainer who gets solid 86 rating third off the layoff.  
#1 With Expression couldn't hold on after getting loose on the lead last time.  Projects to be clear early once again, but would be tough to take at his ML price after being over 30/1 last time.  
#11 Wake Up and Go finally got the right trip and came through with a convincing win over this course 11 days ago.  Threat right back if he gets in.
Selections:  11-3-1-5


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TimeformUS Analysis for November 15

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday November 15th
Race 1:  Wide-open race to kick off the Saturday card.  We'll have to wait for Jacobson's decision regarding his two runners, #1 Wealth to Me and #1A Moonluck, both of whom have Cornelio named.  We can be against the latter, but the former figures a big player.
 #4 Non Stop continues to go well, and he has won back-to-back races, albeit with perfect trips.
 #5 Street Shark was on short rest when giving futile chase to a pair of next-out winners last time.  Has a versatile running style and he fits well here.  #7 Joking is facing a bit tougher after dominating restricted claimers over this track earlier in the meet, but he has drawn well once again and has run figures in the past that are competitive here.
Selections:  1-4-5-7
Race 2:  Not sure if turf racing will be in play, which may not matter to #7 Abilio, who figures to be tough on either surface.  Has been a bit better on the main track recently, but his back turf form is too much for this group, and this is a pretty good spot, at least on that surface.
 #9 Legendary King arrived from Suffolk in good form, and he ran well on turf at Belmont two starts back.  On dirt, Abilio will have to deal with #12 Market Blaster, who returns to NY in solid form. #2 M J Plus, who is entered for turf, is much better-suited to dirt racing.
Selections:  7-9-8-1
Race 3:  #9 B. B.'s Remington ran very well on the drop last time, chasing a fast pace and taking over before it ultimately collapsed late.  Good post. Effort similar to that last one makes him tough.  
#8 Jacapo was also part of that fast pace on October 23, and he paid the price for his early exertions.  #7 Golden Bay is a first-time starter for a dangerous trainer.  Dam won 2 of her 3 career starts and has dropped a couple of multiple winners already.
Selections:  9-8-7-3
Race 4:  Will have to await scratches before making final decisions here, as Jacobson has an entry with Cornelio Velasquez named on both.  If it's #1A Patriot's Voyage who starts, we will not try to beat him.  
His entrymate, #1 Bobby V, is first off the claim after dueling the pace in a race that was won last-to-first on October 12.  #9 Upward drops in class again after disappointing in the slop, but he is capable of a race that would be very tough in here, and he has bounced back from dismal performances before.  
Selections:  1/1A-9-8-7
Race 5:  #1 Runaway Posse took advantage of a fast pace when rolling to convincing maiden win going shorter, but he also ran quite well around 2 turns in turf debut at Saratoga, and he has the added advantage of being lightly raced in this group.  
#3 Macagone has disappointed in the past, but he has dangerous speed and endured a tough trip last time after missing the break.  #7 Boston Strong cut the pace in a race that collapsed, but he may be better off from away from the pace, and the blinkers come off for this.
Selections:  1-3-7-5
Race 6:  #5 Call Daddy faced a tough task chasing a well-meant first-time starter in Requite all the way to the top of the stretch before tiring badly late.  Chased a fast pace on turf in his next start, but he's better suited to dirt racing (Breeding Rating for dirt sprints 81, for turf sprints 73).  
#7 Overthespeedlimit did well while giving wide chase to a front-running winner in muddy track debut, and he just missed at the end while finishing well clear of the others.  Steps up in class for his second start, but Dutrow is among the best in the game with second-time starters (99 rating).  
#6 Whateveryouwant has speed and has run the fastest races to this point (last 3 TFUS Speed Figures of 80-79-80 are the top three numbers in the field), but lacks the upside of some of his rivals.  
Selections:  5-7-6-3
Race 7:  Grade 3 Red Smith on turf goes directly through the multiple Grade 1 winning #4 Big Blue Kitten.  He came up just short in the Canadian International last time, but he approached his career top TFUS Speed Figure in that game runner-up effort.
 #8 Legendary has been in top form recently, winning four of his last five while improving his speed figures.  Has handled distance in the past, and has more tactical speed than the favorite.  #7 Calvados ships in for a dangerous trainer, and he endured a very tough trip before settling for second best in the Laurel Turf Cup.  
Selections:  4-8-7-1
Race 8:  Both #1 Ke in Motion and #3 Leroy Jr. have speed, and both were badly compromised when involved in bumping from the gate and unable to establish forward position on October 25th.  Leroy Jr. has run the fastest races in the field, but he has now lost all three starts this year at short prices and is getting to be tough to take.  
Ke in Motion impressed in taking his NY debut back in March with an 89 TFUS Speed Figure, and he may be able to do better as he makes his second start back from a layoff.  #5 Mighty Zealous is lightly raced and eligible to improve as he returns from a layoff of his own.
Selections:  1-3-5-8
Race 9:  #11 Fourstar Crook was away last and went wide before finishing with interest in a race that was dominated up front.  Would not be a surprise to see her step it up second time out.  
#6 Hot City Girl was outfinished late by both #5 Broken Border and Miss Matzoball (who came back to air impressively in her next start), but she did all the dirty work in there, chasing the odds-on winner all the way.  
#12 Congress Park has run well in each of her first two starts, and she was compromised when electing to rate in behind a pair of rivals who went 1-2 around the track last time. 
Selections:  11-6-12-5