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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for February 5

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday February 5th
Race 1:  #2 American Mink took some money on debut and proceeded to do a lot of racing while battling on a solid pace after a slow break.  Steps up to face MSW company off the claim, but it's far from a scary field.  #3 Shimba comes back to try NY-bred company once again after getting dusted twice in Maryland off the trainer change.  Effort in second career start at Saratoga was a good one and would make him a handful in here.  #1 Full of Mine has run well in both dirt sprints to date, and may have finished a bit closer last time had he been able to get clear on the outside in deep stretch.  #6 Blue Shark came up a bit short when cut back off the claim, finishing just ahead of Full of Mine, though he has shown little development from a speed figure perspective through 9 starts now.  
Selections:  2-3-1-6
Race 2:  #7 Moldavite has speed from a good post and catches the right kind of field here to pick up her first career win.  Main threat is #3 Porcia.  She couldn't contend over a muddy track in her return from a very long layoff, but it's reasonable to expect that she needed one there, and something more like her debut effort would make her tough in this spot.
Selections:  7-3-1-6
Race 3:  #5 Wavell Avenue has taken three straight by open lengths on dirt, and earned a new top TFUS Speed Figure of 92 for convincing win over this track most recently.  Appears to still have more upside, and projects to be on a clear lead early on in this spot.  #2 Image of Anna failed to fire off the short layoff last time, but she has more speed available than she was able to show in that spot and can come forward here with a more aggressive ride for position.  #7 Lunar Surge just missed while against the track (December 28th was strongly slanted toward the inside) last time, and can take advantage if Wavell Avenue is forced to do some racing early.
Selections:  5-2-7-6
Race 4:  #7 Divine Storm was DQ'd from a win two starts back, and put up a new top TFUS Speed Figure of 75 when back up in class last time.  Has speed from a good post and a new trainer, who does well with new acquisitions (86 rating) and is enjoying a good run right now.  Firster #5 Rick Ant is a half to two stakes-winning sprinters and debuts for an underrated trainer.  #1 Dynamo Flotilla had little to offer in Parx debut, but drops a bit in class making second start for trainer sporting strong ratings across the board with this type:  99 with second-time starters, 100 MSW-to-MCL, 98 with blinkers on.  
Selections:  7-5-1-4
Race 5:  Late Pick 4 kicks off with full field of $12.5k claimers (2 AEs), and our Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap.  #4 Midnight Taboo fits the race well from that perspective, as he sports the top Late Pace Rating in the field (81).  Drops in class for Jacobson after putting up TFUS Speed Figures of 93 and 92 for last two starts, both game efforts closing from off the pace.  #8 Lucky Lotto has taken to dirt quite well since arriving from Canada, and he has put fine tactical speed on display in both of those starts.  93 speed figure for win last out puts him squarely in the mix.  #3 Matt and Jesse is an infrequent winner, but he has always been at his best with some pace to close into, and he exits a couple of races that were dominated up front.  
Selections:  4-8-3-6
Race 6:  We'll admit to being unsure whether #5 So Scott can still race effectively, and it is difficult to give him wet-track excuses for his recent efforts, considering his past history in the slop.  However, his good race will make him a player in here, and he has always been effective as a closing sprinter, so we like the turn-back for him.  Should have some pace to attack, so we'll give him one more chance at a big price.  #1 N. F.'s Destiny came up empty as a heavy favorite when last seen, on December 28th, but he lost all chance with a bad stumble at the start, and he then raced wide throughout against a strong rail that day.  Tough post with no shortage of speed to his outside.  #3 Indy Tune has won each of his two career starts for this trainer, but he has had perfect trips both times, and his TFUS Speed Figures for those efforts (88 and 89) may need a boost if N. F.'s Destiny, #4 The Big Deluxe, #10 Cay to Pomeroy, or even So Scott show up with their best.
Selections:  5-1-3-6
Race 7:  #9 Escape to the Moon will have to be ready off the layoff, but he flashed plenty of potential sprinting to begin his career, and he encountered 4 straight fast paces (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded red) once stretched out.  Returns as an apparent new gelding.  #6 Readyheartandsoul looked good overpowering maidens when last seen in early December, and TFUS Speed Figure of 85 earned for that effort would give him a look right back.  #7 Mighty Zealous put up competitive speed figure of 86 for strong closing effort off the layoff, and has since caught slop, and chased wide against a gold rail.  
Selections:  9-6-7-2
Race 8:  Final chance for #3 What the Frost, who has been compromised by dynamics recently (away from slow paces on October 10 and December 15, and tried contesting the pace in race that fell to closers on October 30th).  Figures to be a price, and there is plenty of speed signed on to this race.  #1 Marcy was scratched after acting up in the gate in an easier spot last week (she was heavily favored at the time).  Has improved since the trainer change to Rudy, posting a pair of wins sprinting, including one with a strong finish into a fast pace at Parx.  #4 Bileaps and Bounds drops in class for second start back after getting hooked up on a fast pace first off the layoff.   Was in improved form for this trainer before hitting the sidelines.  
Selections: 3-1-4-9

TimeformUS Analysis for February 4

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Wednesday February 4th
Race 1:  #7 Sakonnet Point is ok on turf but has found a likely spot to try her hand on dirt.  Class drop won't hurt, and her dam won 3 of her 4 career starts, all on the main track, including a pair of wins on the inner dirt.  #6 Warm Heart has run the best races of the experienced dirt horses.  Disappointed last time, and is no cinch to stretch out, but makes for a worthy alternative.  #1 Dance for Joe exits excruciating mile timed in 1:46.84, but has never raced over fast dirt, so perhaps she can show more today (assuming we get those conditions).  Wouldn't knock anyone wanting to give the first-time starter a look, and #3 Pocahontas Style is out of a dam who was a graded stakes winner (over turf).  Trainer gets the dreaded 0 rating with first-time starters, but it's from a small sample, and they have been huge prices, for the most part.  
Selections:  7-6-3-1
Race 2:  #5 Son of Dixie arrived in NY with solid back form, and has maintained it here for a very good trainer.  Drops back down after reaching his top TFUS Speed Figure (88) last time vs. a tougher group.  #4 Salisbury Knight goes first off the claim for Jacobson (100 rating) after being knocked off stride and forced wide over a strong inside track here on December 28th.  Moves up over a wet track.  #3 Ultimate Empire has been badly off form recently, and it is unclear whether catching 4 straight sloppy tracks is at all responsible for that, as he has handled those conditions fine in the past.  He's the horse to beat, if he can still run, but we're not convinced.  
Selections:  5-4-3-1
Race 3:  #5 Forever Utopia sports unappealing profile with 8 runner-up finishes from 16 career starts, but he runs faster than these horses without fail, and is in for the price for the first time today.  Now or never.  #3 Greg's Fourwheeler was 3-wide throughout against an inside track on November 30th, and he drops back down to level of near miss two starts back.  #2 McQuaid tries MCL company for the first time for a hot trainer, though this isn't a move that Violette excels with (Trainer Rating of 56 with MSW-to-MCL droppers).  
Selections:  5-3-2-4
Race 4:  #1 Readthebyline is at his best when able to control the action, and, according to our Pace Projector, he figures to have the opportunity to do just that in this ultra-tough NY-bred allowance.  Lost his best chance when missing the break last time.  We like #2 Readtheprospectus quite a bit as a racehorse, but it is difficult to know what to expect as he makes just his second start since October of 2013.  The bigger the price, the more interested we will be.  #6 Awesome Vision disappointed last time off a wide trip, but looked good beating a similar group two starts back.  #4 Beautyinthepulpit is holding the best recent form, but he exits a perfect-trip try in the Alex Robb, and he needs some pace to close into, which he may not have here.
Selections:  1-2-6-4
Race 5:  #6 Non Finisce Mai has valuable experience in the NY-bred MSW sprint, which features 7 first-time starters from a field of 10.  Closed gamely for 2nd to the talented Sonora while posting a 77 TFUS Speed Figure on debut, and her trainer could hardly be any hotter than he is right now.  Bruce Brown in an excellent (and underrated) trainer, though he is not known for having his firsters cracked up to go.  His #8 Lakeside Sunset appears to have been preparing for a summer debut before hitting the sidelines, and she has plenty of pedigree to run to (85 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints, she's a half to a stakes winner, from a dam who was a stakes winner herself).  #4 Bajan Beach gets a strong Breeding Rating of 88 for dirt sprints, and her dam (unraced) is a sister to 4 stakes winners, including the Grade 1 winner Pirate's Revenge.  Trainer Tom Morley hasn't had much first-out success yet, but it seems only a matter of time, considering the work he's been doing.
Selections:  6-8-4-7
Race 6:  Seems a good spot to give one more chance to #3 Captain Toews, as he drops to the right level while turning back to the right distance.  Plenty of speed signed on here to set up his late run, and he has had more than one legit excuse during the 10-race losing streak since his debut win.  #7 American Progress looks awfully good here on TFUS Speed Figures, even if you have to go back to the start of his career to get to the best of them.  Goes first off the claim for Rudy (98 rating), and projects for the right trip tracking the pace.  #1 Bajan Summer has bounce-back potential after disappointing over a muddy, sealed track last time.  Had no chance chasing a loose winner over a speed-favoring track two back, and runner-up effort on December 3rd was a good one.
Selections:  3-7-1-4
Race 7:  #3 North Eight Street looked good drawing away from maidens in the slop first time out with an 80 TFUS Speed Figure, and then had a less-than-clean trip when stepped up into stakes company for her second start.  We'll take her over #4 Stolen Victory, who sports a similar profile over her last two races and raced wide to no avail in the Busanda.  Suppose #5 Perfect Freud can have another chance for her dangerous new connections, though she has to stretch out here after downing a very weak field of maiden claimers last time.
Selections:  3-4-5-8
Race 8:  30-time winner #1 Wise Awake appeared not to care for sloppy going last time, as she was never asked for run at any point while falling back out of contention from the top of the stretch.  Rates another chance vs. similar field.  #11 Discreet Force is the one to beat exiting blowout win with big TFUS Speed Figure of 99 for red-hot trainer.  #6 Blue Ballerina got back to one of her better races last time despite being carried wide, and she raced on gamely for 3rd behind a perfect-trip #8 Midnightinpositano.  
Selections:  1-11-6-9

TimeformUS Analysis for February 1

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday February 1st
Race 1:  #7 Fictionalcharacter has endured his fair share of tough trips, and while much of that is of his own making, he drops to this level for the first time today, and he may appreciate getting back on fast dirt.  Clean trip may be all it takes.  Taking a horse to get to the early lead in a race like this may not be the worst idea in the world, and our Pace Projector indicates that that horse will be #3 American Hero.  In his last start, he kept close to a front-running winner in a race that turned into a stagger-fest late, with the 0-for-59 #6 Keyaly closing from last to get 2nd.  #4 Doc Daneka has never run on dirt, which isn't necessarily a positive, but he's the kind of unknown commodity that can be interesting in this kind of race.
Selections:  7-3-4-1
Race 2:   #4 El Deal was let go at a big price for under-the-radar trainer on debut, but was impressive nonetheless in convincing score.  TFUS Speed Figure of 80 for the effort gives him a big look right back, even if he fails to show any improvement.  #2 Whateveryouwant goes first off the claim for dangerous team of Riccio/Nevin, and does so directly off of career-best effort with 82 speed figure.  Horse to beat looking for three in a row.  #7 Breach of Duty is a filly facing the boys, but is also first off the claim for a capable trainer, and she may be best suited to take advantage if a contested pace develops (race best Late Pace Rating of 54), which is certainly a possibility. 
Selections:  4-2-7-5
Race 3:  #6 Piccolo Flats impressed in breaking her maiden despite sending into an early run two starts back, and she took an even bigger step forward in blowout win last time (88 TFUS Speed Figure) despite making a wide run from off the pace over a track that was favoring inside speed.  #3 Touching My Toes put up new top figure of her own (92) under aggressive handling last time.  Dangerous if taking no prisoners up front once again.  #4 Saythreehailmary's may be a bit better off over shorter trips, but she has never failed to fire and consistently runs figures that make her a major player in here.  
Selections:  6-3-4-5
Race 4: #1 Brannaman is entered for $12.5k in first start off apparent private purchase by Jacobson.  Returned from long layoff in fine form for Baffert, posting three straight TFUS Speed Figures (102-98-97) that "lay over" this field, and he projects to be on a clear early lead.  Mate #1A Indy Sea is taking the kind of negative drop off the claim that only Jacobson seems able to get away with, and his best race makes him a capable backup.  #3 Star of New York is interesting off the claim for Jason Servis (98 rating off the claim) as a 9yo.  Like the turn-back, as he prefers shorter, and he was sprinting effectively through most of 2014 before tailing off late in the year. 
Selections:  1-3-4-9
Race 5:  #1 Money Multiplier  was outrun early before coming with a good run through the stretch in solid 81 speed figure debut.  Stretches out for second start with strong 94 Breeding Rating for dirt routes, and does so for a trainer who is 5 for his last 12 stretching out maidens on dirt off of a sprint debut.  #4 Net Gain took the expected step forward last time after tough trip against a strong inside track two starts back, but he somehow came up short after getting a perfect trip and taking dead aim on the eventual winner.  Still think he has some talent.  #7 Dontbetwithbruno was three-wide throughout debut against that gold rail on Cigar Mile day, and he stepped it up in game try vs. the talented March last time.  Still not sure added distance does him any favors, and he didn't draw all that well on the outside, but he can run.  #3 Mister Monolo has found a tough spot for his 3rd career start, but he was caught brutally wide throughout when behind Dontbetwithbruno last time, and he gets a positive rider change for this.  
Selections:  1-4-7-3
Race 6:  #5 Miss Bellamy raced greenly while wide in debut, and she flashed much more speed second time despite rider keeping a strong hold early.  Goes first off the claim, and should be speed in here with a more aggressive ride.  #9 So Let It Be So hesitated at the break before rushing forward with speed and tiring behind a blowout winner in sloppy track debut.  May not be the best sign that she returns for a tag 108 days later, but she is clearly eligible for much better here.  #8 Childhood Dream is a half-sister to the talented Gridley Here.  Debuts for Rudy, who has sent out 8 debut winners dating back to early in the Saratoga meet, 6 of those in maiden claiming company.  #12 Partytime Chill may be the horse to beat as she drops in class for the first time, but this appears to be an above average maiden claimer.  #14 Weekend Score will need a couple of scratches to get in, but she ran deceptively well first time out after racing greenly early and winding up far back in the field to the top of the stretch.
Selections:  5-9-8-14
Race 7:   #6 Stage Name paid the price after chasing fast paces both two and three starts back (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded in red), but ran winning races both times.  Deserves another chance after losing her rider at the start last time, and Pace Projector favors front-runners in this race.  #5 Pitched goes first off the claim for a young trainer on the rise, and she was always outside vs. that gold rail here on December 28th.  #9 Kleptocrat has earned three career TFUS Speed Figures in the 70s, which is a level unfamiliar to most of her rivals in this spot.  She's more of a closing type, and exits a disappointing effort off of a short break, but is clearly one to fear.  We've not been big fans of #7 Mr Rico Is Valid, but he is difficult to dismiss out of hand considering the run his trainer has been on recently. 
Selections:  6-5-9-7
Race 8:  #10 My Super Nova lost all chance when stumbling badly at the start over a speed-favoring track two starts back, and she simply got the wrong ride last time when electing not to use her speed on the stretch-out.  Only other start sprinting over fast dirt was excellent debut effort with a 94 TFUS Speed Figure.  #2 Sonora gave an experienced and heavily favored My Super Nova all she wanted first time out, and came right back to bury maidens with a solid figure of 91.  Could easily be considered the horse to beat in this spot.  Interested to see what we get from #1 Graeme Crackers, who was game in dueling down The Lewis Dinner (now a multiple stakes winner) on debut before having something go wrong second time out.  
Selections:  10-2-1-7
Race 9:   #9 John Silver drops for third start back from a long layoff.  Figures tough at this level, and projects for good tracking trip in race not lacking for pace.  #2 Hold Everything ships over for debut run out of the Jacobson barn (10 rating first time with trainer).  Was a speed type going longer in California, and was done in by dueling a fast pace when last seen out there.  
Selections:  9-2-3-6

TimeformUS Analysis for January 31

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday January 31
Race 1:  #6 No Texting crushed a field of maidens in his dirt debut two starts back, and wound up in way too tough last time (Race Rating 82, vs. today's 63).  Has never sprinted, but is drawn well on the outside and has speed.  #3 Leverage was a game winner on debut despite having to alter course in the stretch.  Drops after trying a tougher group in second start.  #1 False Positive turns back off the claim for a top trainer (88 rating off the claim).  Had trouble at the start before making up a lot of ground in shorter sprint two starts back.
Selections:  6-3-1-5
Race 2:  #1 Pierce's Prize bombed at a short price when last seen 71 days ago, and did so without apparent excuse.  Prior efforts were all good, and came vs. much better horses, so he can have one more chance.  #4 Stone Crab steps up out of MCL debut that found him rallying some late without threat to front-running Chasing Bubbles.  Rudy gets strong 91 Trainer Rating with second-time starters.  #2 Francis Freud has faced much tougher fields in his two starts to date, and he has the pedigree and connections to follow for another start or two.
Selections:  1-4-2-3
Race 3:  All the signs were there to be against #2 Belle Gallantey when she returned from her layoff in the $100k Affectionately, and she never looked sharp in a tired 5th place finish.  Expecting better from her second time out, and this is a field she will dominate if back in form.  If she's not back in form, #3 Penwith may be in position to pick up her first stakes win.  Still lightly raced enough to project some improvement, she has good speed and, if Belle Gallantey can't run anymore, she may be in control coming to the stretch, as she was when just failing to last in the Affectionately.  #1 Moment in Dixie is a reliable closer; she just isn't that good, and will need things to fall apart late in order to get there. 
Selections:  2-3-1-5
Race 4:  #1 Wishandaprayer was forced to contest a fast early pace after showing speed in his debut, and he had nothing left when the closers arrived.  Went to turf for second start, but he returns on the drop for a trainer having a good meet from limited starters.  #6 To Erin Again had some speed on the drop to the bottom last time (this $16k level is now the bottom for MCLs in NY) and is still lightly raced enough to have another chance.  #5 Prince Raja and #7 Qui C'est Moi are the ML favorites, but they've been piling up the chances while consistently settling for minor awards.  
Selections:  1-6-7-5
Race 5:  #3 I Just Wanna Win turns back out of much tougher spot vs. High Dollar Woman at Parx, and also drops to a more reasonable spot for an excellent trainer who doesn't ship much to NY.  #8 Zenstone was with an inside, speed-favoring track when ridden out to a clear-cut victory last time.  Has speed from a good post, and trainer is in midst of a very strong run.  #7 Munningsgotmusic sat a trip and easily scored over a very weak field in NY debut last time.  Projects for similar trip here, and won't discount her chances to come right back.  #5 Go On Darling prevailed in slow MCL for Baffert in California, and has since been an apparent private purchase by David Jacobson.  He wins with these horses, but we weren't impressed with the debut, and would tread lightly at any short price.
Selections:  3-8-7-1
Race 6:  Late Pick 4 kicks off with solid group of maidens.  #8 Promise and Hope was a big price when finishing behind a couple of these last month, but considering the disastrous start he was off to in that race, he did well to be as close as he was at the end.  #2 Ekhlaas got the best of a fast duel in that same race before being overtaken by a pair of perfect-trip closers in the stretch, including #7 King Rontos.  May have an easier time of it here (unless one of the firsters brings speed to the table) and will add lasix this time (98 Trainer Rating for McLaughlin first-time lasix).  
Selections:  8-2-7-4
Race 7:  Final chance for #6 What the Frost, who has been compromised by dynamics recently (away from slow paces on October 10 and December 15, and tried contesting the pace in race that fell to closers on October 30th).  Figures to be a price, and there is plenty of speed signed on to this race.  #8 Marcy was scratched after acting up in the gate in an easier spot last Sunday (she was heavily favored at the time).  Has improved since the trainer change to Rudy, posting a pair of wins sprinting, including one with a strong finish into a fast pace at Parx.  #7 Bileaps and Bounds drops in class for second start back after getting hooked up on a fast pace first off the layoff.   Was in improved form for this trainer before hitting the sidelines.    
Selections:  6-8-7-1
Race 8:  #1 Bounty Pink has picked up where she left off in two starts since returning from a layoff, including 92 TFUS Speed Figure win when closing down a fast pace in her first race back.  Thought she was 2nd best to the talented Wavell Avenue last time; she missed the place photo after being bothered late and forced onto her wrong lead.  #3 Checkupfromzneckup dominated maidens in the slop with an 88 two back, and she was stuck outside against that gold rail on Cigar Mile day.  Still came through with a strong effort and is the horse to beat.  #9 Whispering has handled distance before, and she was pushed wide vs. a strong rail when unable to impact her last race.  TFUS Speed Figures of 89 and 90 for her two starts prior to that make her a big player in here.
Selections:  1-3-9-8
Race 9:  #7 Fortunate Sky debuts for George Weaver (100 rating with older first-time starters in maiden claiming races), and gets a perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt as a half to millionaire Musket Man, among others.  Won't need to possess nearly as much talent as that horse to be competitive in this spot.  Rudy Rodriguez had won with 7 first-time starters just dating back to the beginning of the Saratoga meeting, and added an 8th in Thursday's 3rd race, with 6 of them coming in MCL company.  He saddles both #6 Our Posse and #8 Mr. Carmine here.  Of the experienced runners, #4 El Viejo Verde has the speed to continue to be a threat at this level and will find the right field one of these days.  
Selections:  7-4-8-6