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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for January 11

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday January 11
Race 1:  #7 Sherifco drops down in class and switches back to dirt for first start since September 26.  Earned solid TFUS Speed Figures of 75 and 80 in first two starts despite encountering trouble both times.  #1 Indian Fighter was bet hard in debut almost a year ago at Gulfstream, but missed the break and was dusted by the talented Social Inclusion.  In for a tag first time back, but is a clear danger.  #6 Aleander lacks for early speed, which may be an issue in this race, but he did have trouble at the break last time before racing on through the stretch.
Selections:  7-1-6-3
Race 2:  Wide-open $10k claimer drew a full field and may ultimately come down to trips.  We were interested in #3 Magma at a big price off the layoff when this race was originally carded for Thursday's cancelled program, and we still think she's a horse to use somewhere at long odds, but she did not fare well with the re-draw and must work something out from the rail.  #2b R Girl She Gone just failed to last after surviving a contested pace in her NY debut, and she was game to get third last time after getting in a bit tight in the upper stretch.  #8 Midnightinpositano has been ultra-consistent and makes first start for trainer in the midst of a strong run, but Gullo gets a rating of just 48 off the claim.  #4 Rosie My Way has the best back form to get to, and she did stumble badly at the start before racing wide last time.  
Selections:  2b-3-4-8
Race 3:  #4 Miss Bellamy raced greenly after giving early chase to a blowout winner over a sloppy track in debut, and tired late while floating out very wide.  Adds blinkers for her second start.  #9 Moonlit Posse also tried to show speed behind that runaway winner on December 10th, but she didn't have enough of it and wound up outrun.  Also adds blinkers for this, and can be a danger if her speed is better in this spot.  #11 Culminating is the ML favorite and owns the top last TFUS Speed Figure in the field (55), but she is lacking for early speed and may need the pace to come back to her.  
Selections:  4-9-11-3
Race 4:  #2 Prophet's Cat posted lone career win over this track last year, and he was very unlucky when stopped in traffic on the turn and losing all position before racing on for 3rd last time.  #3 Grand Strand was running races earlier last year that lay over this field, and, in his defense, spent the majority of his time for Rudy Rodriguez racing over sloppy tracks.  Goes first off the claim for Jacobson (100 rating) as the horse to beat.  #1 Two Seventeen hasn't been the same since enduring pair of extended layoffs.  Perhaps stretching back out in distance will allow him to show more.
Selections:  2-3-1-6
Race 5:  #5 March finished gamely to get up for 2nd despite racing away from that gold rail on Cigar Mile Day.  Son of BC Classic winner Blame stretches out for trainer who gets perfect 100 rating with second-time starters.  #2 Dontbetwithbruno took money for Pletcher in his debut, but was also against the track on that November 29th card, and he worked hard chasing the pace all the way before tiring.  Expect better from him over a fair track.  #9 Titanor may be meant for turf down the line, but he showed enough in earning 74 TFUS Speed Figure on debut, despite winding up on a wide chase, to expect better from him this time.
Selections:  5-2-9-1
Race 6:  Our Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap for this strong route for 3yo NY-bred fillies, and that will be a welcome sight for #6 Building Permit, who was badly compromised while rating widest and last in slow-paced East View Stakes most recently.  She has been wired in both starts since running away from maidens in the mud, and may be quite a bit better than she appears in a fairly run race.  #10 Hot City Girl sat closer, but was also outside and compromised by the slow-to-develop pace when holding off Building Permit for 2nd in the East View.  Think she has at least as much ability as that rival, but has taken the worst of the draw on the outside.  Trio of impressive debut winners, #2 North Eight Street, #4 Liberty Island and #9 Bourbonstateofmind, are all eligible to be at least this good, but are all speed types and all debuted over wet tracks.
Selections:  6-10-2-9
Race 7:  #3 State Flag was up off the claim (Race Rating of 95, vs. today's 88) and never involved behind a front-running, blow-out winner last time.  Earned TFUS Speed Figures of 94 and 93 when switched to dirt at Finger Lakes recently, which would make him very tough in here.  #8 Lucky Lotto took to dirt quite well when settling for 2nd best to the streaking Artemus Paperboy (now won 4 straight for Jacobson) after a perfect trip last time.  Won't get 8/1 on him this time, but a similar effort makes him a big factor.  #5 Lubango has made pressured paces before being overtaken in the stretch in each of his last two starts.  They may have him to track down late once again.
Selections:  3-8-3-7
Race 8:  #4 Prairie Stone made a promising return from a layoff to post a new top figure (88) despite being forced to contest the pace all the way.  #7 Saythreehailmary's outfinished Prairie Stone last time, but had the easier trip of the two, and has given the impression that she may prefer shorter distances.  #3 Lady Gracenote drops after game run for 3rd vs. better last time.  She's the horse to beat, but is another who seems to prefer shorter distances.  
Selections:  4-3-1-7
Race 9:  #10 Read the Mirage drops all the way down looking for a win, and he is clearly fastest of this bunch coming in, with TFUS Speed Figures of 73 and 76 in last two starts and races that are much faster than that from earlier last year.  Had little chance while giving three-wide chase to a drop-down, front-running winner last time.  Best alternative seems to be #9 Heading to Boca, taking a drop of his own after encountering some traffic trouble in slow-paced race last time.
Selections:  10-9-6-5

TimeformUS Analysis for January 10

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

Saturday's racing at Aqueduct has been cancelled.

TimeformUS Analysis for January 9

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Friday January 9
Race 1:  #4 Good Shot gave way without apparent excuse over this track/trip last time, but she gave game chase to a front-running winner one start prior while earning a TFUS Speed Figure of 72.  Rates chance to rebound as she drops back down in class.  #2 Kool Charli endured a less-than-ideal trip first time out, and was forced to chase a front-running winner on a fast pace last time in the mud.  Eligible to improve if she can settle into a more comfortable trip early.  #6 She's All Even has flashed good speed in both starts and projects to make a clear early lead from her outside post on the stretch-out.  Gets a Breeding Rating of 90 for dirt routes and is a threat to take them all the way.
Selections:  4-2-6-5
Race 2:  Won't expect #4 Apex to improve despite being claimed by Steve Kelsaris (95 rating off the claim) as his prior trainer does an excellent job, but he'll be no worse off, and we think he has the best recent races available.  #6 Italian Rules is just a good horse, and he has managed to run his race under a variety of circumstances and for several different trainers.  Has carried on off the claim and can win a race with any kind of trip.  #2 Jeter is consistent, likes the inner, and will be closing late in a race that is not lacking for speed.
Selections:  4-6-2-1/1A
Race 3:  #1 Three Way Ticket drops back to more appropriate level after failing to pick up with a run vs. tougher last time.  Caught a set-up but tried to rally up a dead rail two starts back, and her prior dirt routes in Kentucky were fine efforts.  #4 Brandini drops in for the price in return to NY, and she has consistently run races that will make her competitive in here.  #6 Academyperformance endured a very tough trip when fading behind Three Way Ticket on November 27th, and then just failed to pull off the upset when shipped to Parx last time.  #2 Reckless Move vacated the gold rail for the stretch run on December 28th, allowing the longshot winner to slip through down there to pull off the upset.  Stretches back out with competitive route form to get to. 
Selections:  1-4-6-2
Race 4:  #4 Nine Bears was outrun after being bumped back between horses at the start of his debut and couldn't get involved thereafter.  Trainer tends to have better success with second-time starters (95 rating).  #6 Wild Freud sat a nice trip and dueled with the eventual winner through the stretch before letting go late at this level last time.  Logical as the horse to beat in this spot.  #8 El Viejo Verde continues to flash good speed and tire, and has now coughed up stretch leads in each of his last four races, but one of these days he may forget to stop.  
Selections:  4-6-8-5
Race 5:  #1 Ridingwiththedevil finally broke through with long overdue win first time off the claim for this trainer, and then came right back to win again before landing in over her head last time.  Figures tough dropping to this level, and entrymate, #1A Star Magnolia, makes for a capable backup.  #6 Nonnie Connie is an infrequent winner and prefers wet tracks, but she will also appreciate this class drop.  #4 Casual Elegance has been maintaining good form without winning since being claimed in early 2014, and she has a versatile running style to avoid being compromised by dynamics.
Selections:  1/1A-6-4-2
Race 6:  #8 El Grillo wheels back quickly after getting crushed at the break of his debut just 6 days ago in a race that was dominated up front.  Dam posted 6 of her 7 career wins routing on dirt and was a 4-time winner around two turns on the inner.  #10 H Man tried to circle the field from last through the second turn, but had little chance to get near the runaway winner when dropped back to this level last time.  Has yet to show much early speed, so may find himself trying a similar run from his tough post in this spot.  #6 Touch of Paradise makes the MSW-to-MCL drop while adding blinkers.  Is supposed to be tough at this level, but holds no edge on speed figures and may be better over shorter distances.  
Selections:  8-10-6-3
Race 7:  One final chance for #3 What the Frost, who has been compromised by dynamics recently (away from slow paces on October 10 and December 15, and tried contesting the pace in race that fell to closers on October 30th).  Figures to be a price, and there is plenty of speed signed on to this race.  #7 Marcy has improved since the trainer change to Rudy, posting pair of wins sprinting, including one with a strong finish into a fast pace at Parx.  Turns back to better distance for this.  #9 Wise Awake gets a trainer change to Michelle Nevin (100 rating with trainer changes), but won't expect to see much improvement from 10yo who has already run 30 times in her career.  Still, she fits this race well and has a versatile running style.  
Selections:  3-7-9-1
Race 8:  Both #2 Bullheaded Boy and #5 Tizquick have had difficult trips in back-to-back $100k stakes tries (1 sprint, 1 route), and there is an argument to be made that either could have easily won one, or both, of those races.  Still not convinced that either of them is a true router, but will expect both to be tough in this race.  Upside in the field belongs to #10 All Is Number, stretching out directly off of a convincing debut win sprinting.  
Selections:  2-5-10-9
Race 9:  #4 Frosty Pop Larry shows up with solid, if gapped, Fair Hill work tab for a trainer who has managed to impress from limited starters so far. Frosty Pop Larry has just 4 career starts to this point, but has managed a pair of big performances off of workouts, including a 65/1 upsetter.  #2 Zabaione took a wide trip in debut, then pressed a front-running winner before weakening in the slop last time.  May appreciate getting back to fast dirt.  #3 Greg's Fourwheeler owns the top last TFUS Speed Figure in the field by a clear margin.  Raced too close to a pace that collapsed in lone try at this level. 
Selections:  4-2-3-7

TimeformUS Analysis for January 8

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

Thursday's racing at Aqueduct has been cancelled.