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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for December 4th

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday December 4th
Race 1:  Early Pick 3 kicks off with a group of 7 maiden claimers stretching out around two turns.  #4 Dance for Joe hasn't done much running yet through three starts, but she tried turf first time out at Saratoga, and has encountered a pair of sloppy, sealed tracks since.  Did have trouble at the start last time, and may have more to offer if she can catch a fast track.  #5 Lil' Zilla went aggressively to contest the pace on off-the-turf mile last time, and she continued to try gamely in the stretch.  May be at an early advantage up front in this spot.  #3 Built in a Day was outrun by a fast pace last time before rallying mildly through the stretch, but she had enough speed to keep close two back, and may get herself more forwardly placed on the stretch out.
Selections:  4-5-3-7
Race 2:  #7 Lady Rhubarb returns to dirt on the drop, and she has drawn well on the outside.  Pace Projector puts her on the early lead in a race shape favoring speed types.  #5 Mononoke can also be forwardly placed, and she has the competitive speed figures to go with her early speed.  She has already had 13 tries at this two-life claiming condition, and has lost more than once without excuse.  #6 Rosemarie has never finished first in a race, and starts for low-percentage connections, but has spent far too much time running in the wrong races and is a better fit at this level.  #2 Lemon and Honey is a player in here with her good race, but she is often behind the eight ball after breaking poorly.  
Selections:  7-5-2-6
Race 3:  #6 Warrior's Hero ran a winning race in his second career start after getting the best of a pace duel, only to be closed down by a perfect-trip winner late.  Has since run exclusively on either wet tracks or turf and is going to be tough with this class drop if getting back to that June 22nd effort.  #2 Blue Shark is also dropping in class for the first time, and he has earned similar TFUS Speed Figures to Warrior's Hero.  Trainer has been on a strong run since racing switched over to Aqueduct.  #1 Luv Dakota Skye was wired going shorter in lone career dirt start.  Switches back with a slight drop in class for trainer pulling excellent ratings with older maiden claimers across the board.  
Selections:  6-2-1-3
Race 4:  If we can get one turf race in, it is unlikely to be this one, but this race may actually be more interesting on the main track anyway.  #6 M J Plus just missed while down on the deeper inside last time, and his game 3rd behind the talented Cool Samurai prior to that points him out as the horse to beat.  Has two-turn form, and should get some pace out front, assuming #4 Shankopotamus, #8 Chairman Now and #12 Love to Run stick around to race.  Chairman Now has been back in solid form for Chris Englehart this year, and he is the lone entrant with more than one career win on the inner (he has three).  #9 Rap d'Oro was also toward the inside when just behind M J Plus on November 15th, and he is competitive with his typical effort; took advantage of a contested pace when defeating Chairman Now back in September, but may get a similar scenario today.
Selections:  6-9-8-1A
Race 5:  #2 Apex has tried tougher entry-level allowance company (Race Ratings of 97 and 99, vs. today's 95) in two of his last three starts, but defeated a field similar to this one in between those efforts, and did so in front-running fashion.  Can put that speed to good use today in a race for which Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead.  #5 Doc Almon turns back and switches from turf to dirt off the claim.  Has built in excuses for last two (mud, turf) and has faced tougher since arriving in NY.  #4 Dighton started rounding into form on the inner last year, and he carried that form forward throughout the year.  Good fit at this level, and he has improved his speed figures since returning to NY for his last two races.
Selections:  2-5-4-6
Race 6:  Interesting race if we're somehow on the grass, and #4 Artic North is the horse to beat on current form.  Slight cut-back to 9 furlongs doesn't figure to hinder his chances.  #12 Barrel of Love has faced tough NY-bred competition all year long and held his own.  Goes first off the claim for dangerous connections.  #9 Street Game has been trying to get a turf race to go ever since convincing last-to-first score at Belmont almost two months ago.  Handles yielding ground better than most.  
Selections: 4-12-9-1
Race 7:  #7 Herbal Prospector won both routes over the inner at the last meet, and did so from a tracking position, a style that will play in this field with Pace Projector indicating a fast pace is on tap.  #3 Big Town has gotten back to good form off the Jacobson claim, earning a 100 TFUS Speed Figure for his win in the slop two back, and a 98 for his game runner-up finish last time.  Can also pull the right trip in this race if the pace develops as expected.  #2 Little Jimmy projects to be one of the speeds, but he's an interesting newer face off the claim, and he lost his best chance when failing to break cleanly last time.  Gets a big rider change for this.  
Selections:  7-3-2-5
Race 8:  #5 Spa City Fever continues to go well for Jacobson, and he just missed last time after taking a strong run at his winning stablemate on the lead.  Handles two turns and the inner just fine, and can stalk or go to the lead, as required.  #1 Bond Vigilante has some improving to do against this kind of field, but he is eligible to come forward quickly as he makes just his second start as a 4yo after a long layoff.  Good post.  #4 Gridley Here is also a lightly raced horse on the upswing.  May appreciate getting some extra distance to work with after being unable to impact sprinters last time.
Selections:  5-1-4-6
Race 9:  #9 Birkenhead finished gamely to just miss 3rd after a tough trip when switched to dirt two starts back, and she was wide throughout in a race won in wire-to-wire fashion last time.  Has found the right kind of field here.  #4 Perfect Freud blew a clear chance without apparent excuse for $40k last time.  Goes off the claim for dangerous connections.  #2 Ozone had no excuse after getting a clear early lead on a slow pace last time, but outfinished a couple of today's rivals in that spot.  
Selections:  9-4-2-8

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TimeformUS Analysis for December 3

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Wednesday December 3rd
Race 1:  With more rain in the area for Monday and Tuesday, it seems unlikely that we will get turf racing in.   #1 Confessa has run well enough to win this on either surface, though her effort when 2nd best at this level on dirt at Saratoga makes her the one to beat on the main track, and she has faced better horses in her last two.  #6 Maura's Pass will get one more chance, as she has run well in all four career starts on that surface despite being a difficult ride, and the trainer change is not viewed as a negative.   #7 Senso seems a logical player for Jacobson, though she is not one to take a short price on, and she has never been two turns.
Selections:  1-6-7-2
Race 2:  #5 Razia Sultana earned the top TFUS Speed Figure of 78 for game effort chasing a runaway winner two starts back, and she appeared to be compromised by the muddy track last time.  Half-sister to stakes-quality Samraat figures to handle added distance.  #3 Good Shot chased a front-running winner on a fast pace on November 22nd and settled for 2nd best.  Earned a new top figure of 72 for that performance.  #6 Liberty Island debuts for an underrated trainer of first-time starters (75 rating) but will have to navigate two turns right away.  
Selections:  5-3-6-2
Race 3:  Short field in the 3rd, which may simply come down to which of the two favorites you prefer, #1 America or #2 Lunar Surge.  We'll take the latter, an older filly who has faced solid competition all year and held her own.  Like that she has a win over the inner already.  America earned solid TFUS Speed Figure of 96 when handling next-out winner Agawa on the drop last time.  Similar show of early speed would play to her advantage in this field. 
Selections:  2-1-3-4
Race 4:  #5 Special Ops drops in class for the first time for Clement (98 rating MSW-to-MCL) and makes his second start off of a long layoff after racing evenly over a longer trip.  Lone career dirt race came vs. much better horses.  #10 Identity Crisis exits main track loss at a lower claiming level, but he has earned the best dirt figures in the field, and it does seem that that is the surface we will be running on.  #12 Ready Mecke is second off the layoff after displaying improved form, and he has never raced this cheaply on dirt.  #14 Harbor King is the lone MTO, and he will be in vs. maiden claiming company for the first time in his career if he gets to run.
Selections:  5-10-12-14
Race 5:  #6 Kelly's Prize drops in class while turning back in distance, both of which figure to help her chances.  Lone career start sprinting on dirt to this point came as a 2yo, and it was one of her better performances.  #5 Prove It All Night has dangerous speed, and impressed in wiring a field at Saratoga the last time she was on fast dirt.  Projects to be on a clear early lead.  #2 Mr Rico is Valid also has speed, and she switches back to dirt after trying to close in a turf sprint that held together up front last time.  Trainer gets excellent 98 rating going turf to dirt. 
Selections:  6-5-2-1
Race 6:  #8 All Is Number debuts for Rick Violette, who is among the best in the game with 2yo first-time starters in dirt sprints, and who has been running hot since racing shifted to Aqueduct, where he trains year-round.  He has won with 7 of the last 13 2yo first-time starters he has sent out on dirt, including 3 last week.  #5 Apollo Eleven has a big pedigree (100 overall rating for dirt), and the half-brother to stakes winners Giant Moon and Moonlight Song brought $250k as a yearling.  His trainer is also stabled here all year, and he has won with six 2yo first-time starters since the beginning of the Saratoga meet.  #3 Francis Freud went back to the drawing board after racing greenly way back on June 1st.  Has pedigree (87 rating for dirt sprints) for an underrated trainer.
Selections:  8-5-3-1
Race 7:  #1 My Name Is Michael takes big class drop after giving futile chase to the impressive Liam's Map (107 TFUS Speed Figure) last time.  Prefer him sprinting (he gets a Breeding Rating of 92 for dirt sprints, vs. only a 72 for routes), and Mott gets perfect 100 rating with runners dropping from allowance to claiming company.  #4 American Progress also drops in class for this, and he took the worst of it while rating wide in a slow-paced sprint last time.  He's a logical alternative should My Name Is Michael wind up being over-bet.
Selections:  1-4-7-6
Race 8:  Entry-level NY-bred allowance figures to have a much different look come post time, as 4 of the 8 entered just ran in this condition on Sunday.  We will definitely lose #4 Piccolo Flats, who cleared the condition in blowout fashion, and the others may not be inclined to come right back in 3 days.  That will likely leave #8 Clean Eleven as the horse to beat stretching out while third off the layoff for Chad Brown (100 rating 3rd off the layoff, 97 rating sprint-to-route).  #7 Swift Taylor has been in form at Finger Lakes recently, but she's also run well over the inner and has been at her best around two turns.  #3 Legally Bay has been in career best form for a low-profile trainer, which usually ensures a square price.
Selections:  7-8-3-2
Race 9:  #10 Mr. Lit landed in fast-paced sprint first back from a very long layoff (589 days), and did well to forge on late for a piece.  Earned 90 TFUS Speed Figure routing over this track early last year, and gets a trainer change to Michelle Nevin for this (100 rating first time with trainer).  We thought #1 Maximus Mike would appreciate the turn-back when off the claim last time, but that wasn't the case.  Route form is competitive here, and trainer does well with runners making second start out of his barn (83 rating).  #6 Kodiak Kody has not run competitively since arriving in NY, but he has tried turf several times, and has caught wet tracks since switched back to dirt.  Drops in class, and may do better if catching fast footing. 
Selections:  10-1-6-7black-white-TFUS-logo_copy

Big Apple Babies for Sunday, November 30, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Sunday, November 30, 2014
Race 4, 2-year-old fillies, 6 1/2 furlongs, dirt, 1:47pm

DICKINSON (bay filly, Medaglia d’Oro – Little Belle, by A.P. Indy) is the second foal out of her dam, winner of the G1 Ashland on Keeneland’s Polytrack and the Busher here at Aqueduct. The first foal, Telegraph Hill (Distorted Humor) is a winner. Little Belle is a full sister to Dubai Dancer, winner of the Witches Brew Stakes a Monmouth. Dickinson’s fourth dam is the outstanding producer Up the Flagpole.
Owner: Darley Stable
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez

NOBLE AND A BEAUTY (chestnut filly, Noble Causeway – Overandabeauty, by Grand Slam) is the second foal from her dam, the first of which has not won. Overandabeauty was a three-time winner, including at two, with victories on both dirt and turf as well as a pair of stakes-placings. All of her success came sprinting. Overandabeauty is a half-sister to G1 Wood Memorial winner and standout sire Tapit (Pulpit). Her only half-sister with offspring of racing age is Home From Oz (Pulpit), the dam of A Shin Gold (Medaglia d’Oro), a two-time stakes winner in Japan who finished second in last year’s Japan Dirt Derby (JPN-G1).
Owner: My Meadowview Farm
Trainer: Rick Violette
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

GARDEN PRINCESS (chestnut filly, Distorted Humor – Storminthegarden, by Stormy Atlantic) is out of an unraced half-sister to champion Paradise Creek, millionaire Forbidden Apple, G1 winner Wild Event, and stakes winner I’m Very Irish. The tremendous family also includes American champion Theatrical, European and U. A. E. highweight David Junior, Japanese standout Taiki Blizzard, and G1 Las Virgenes winner Eden’s Moon. While the bulk  of the family’s success has come on the turf, I’m Very Irish and Eden’s Moon boost their dirt credentials. Two offspring of Storminthegarden have run with one winner, Yes It’s the Boy (Yes It’s True), whose victories have come in Germany.
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Manuel Franco

SWEET CORINE (bay filly, Pulpit – Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway) is just the fourth foal to race from a mare who has gotten off to a fast start as a broodmare. Enchanted Rock’s first foal, a full brother to Sweet Corine, was El Padrino. He followed a second-out maiden win with a third place finish in the G2 Remsen as a juvenile before taking the G2 Risen Star at three. Verrazano (More Than Ready) came next. While unraced at two, he swept his first four starts, highlighted by the G1 Wood Memorial, took the G1 Haskell, and was Group 1 placed twice in England at four. Third foal La Madrina (Tapit) is 3-for-5 lifetime, including a debut score for these connections sprinting on the dirt. All of her starts have come this year as a three-year-old. This is also the family of champion Queena, G1 winners Chic Shirine, Serra Lake, and Somali Lemonade in addition to a host of other graded stakes performers.
Owner: Emory Hamilton
Trainer: Claude McGaughey
Jockey: Javier Castellano

Notes: Milaya’s dam, Trendy Lady, was stakes placed on three occasions, including the G3 Chicago Handicap. Mattiebluebreezing is out of a half-sister to three stakes horses, including 2-time Aqueduct stakes winner Tiger’s Rock. Not About the Nail’s dam is a half-sister to two stakes horses, including $460,000-earner Master O Foxhounds.

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare
* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner
* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare
* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner
* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000
* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000
* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner
* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner
* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction


TimeformUS Analysis for November 30

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday November 30th
Race 1:  No one to trust in opener for NY-bred maidens.  #1 Vagarious has run his best races over this one-turn-mile trip, and he showed some uncharacteristic speed before tiring in the mud last time.  #7 Hidden Warrior has enough speed to be close to the pace, and he is perfectly drawn outside as he makes his third start off the layoff for Linda Rice (95 rating).  ML favorite #4 Keen's Cupla may have simply found the right spot, but he does appear to be a horse who would be better off going shorter.  He has settled for 2nd best in three straight since enduring tough trip on closing day at Saratoga, but he has run the fastest races, and also projects to be close to the pace.  
Selections:  1-7-4-2
Race 2:  If we're still off the turf, #13 Piccolo Flats will be very hard to beat, though #14 Traipse in Utopia ran very well back on dirt last time and is a threat.  On grass, #2 Graceful Gal broke through impressively to defeat males over this course with an 84 TFUS Speed Figure two starts back.  #12 Keen Katana has drawn poorly on the outside, but is going to be tough if getting a trip and running her typical race.
Selections:  2-12-9-6
Race 3:  #2 Socialsaul may be the horse to beat as he goes for five straight for Jacobson, but he faces slightly tougher here, and holds no edge on our speed figures.  #5 State Flag has taken to dirt recently for a top trainer, and he is going to appreciate turning back here after 1 1/4-mile attempt last time.  TFUS Speed Figures of 93 and 92 earned for his two prior starts are both faster than anything Socialsaul has run during his current streak.  #3 North Ocean gave way after briefly appearing to be in control last time, his first off the Linda Rice claim, but he came up empty at the top of the stretch, and now drops again.  
Selections:  5-3-2-1
Race 4:  Can only guess at the 4th, which consists of 8 first-time starters in a field of 9.  #7 Sweet Corine attracts Castellano for her debut, and she is a half to a pair of talented runners in Verrazano and El Padrino.  #5 Noble and a Beauty debuts for Rick Violette, who has consistently been one of the best with debuting juveniles in dirt sprints, and her winning dam is a half-sister to Tapit.  #1 Dickinson will not have lasix for her debut, but her dam was a Grade 1 winner for these connections a few years ago.  #6 Garden Princess is one to watch down the road, as she hails from the family of turf stars Paradise Creek and Forbidden Apple.  
Selections:  5-7-1-2
Race 5:  #5 I Want You to Know gets a positive turn-back here after getting caught up contesting fast paces going longer in his last two starts.  Switches to low-percentage rider after being listed as a vet scratch on November 10, but he will be the right kind of price.  #3 B Shanny is down slightly in class here off the claim for dangerous connections, and he appears to have gotten back into competitive form recently.  Pace Projector places him in clear control early in a race expected to favor runners on or near the lead.  #8 Broad Rule is the horse to beat, but he takes a suspicious drop all the way down to $10k after being taken by current connections for $32k just 50 days ago.
Selections:  5-3-8-7
Race 6:  #1 Gethot Stayhot was outrun early in sloppy track debut won in wire-to-wire fashion, but she was racing on well through the stretch while appearing to still be very green.  Didn't draw well on the inside, but is eligible to improve quickly.  #12 Miss Bellamy is a first-time starter for Mark Hennig, who has sent out several "live" firsters this year, and her dam was a fast stakes-winning sprinter in Northern California.  #4 Yourcreditisgood has disappointed after running well a couple of times earlier this year.  Turns back and drops in class, which may be enough to get her back on the beam.  #11 Zenstone had good speed to contest the pace before settling for 2nd best at this level first time out.  Trainer gets perfect 100 rating from limited sample of second-time starters.
Selections:  1-12-4-11
Race 7:  If we're on turf, #9 Campogiovanni may be the horse to beat as he drops in class out of game try at Woodbine.  #5 Call Wil is off the claim in good form, though he was defeated without excuse after a perfect trip last time.  #10 Recanted has been holding his own on dirt recently, but he is eligible to be a factor at this level on grass, as well.  On dirt, #13 Midnight Taboo can be given another chance after getting stuck inside on the drop last time and doing his best running late. 
Selections:  9-5-10-6
Race 8:  #4 Divine Child can be given a pass for no-show effort in the slop last time, and he has plenty of competitive races in his past for an excellent trainer.  #1A Depeche Chat came through with a solid effort off the Jacobson claim on turf last time, but he has run well on dirt in the past, and his most recent starts on that surface have come vs. much better horses.  Would prefer to take him on his own, rather than as part of a shorter-priced entry.  #2 Vegas No Show is likely to be claimed as he takes a big class drop here, but he, too, has been facing tougher competition and is supposed to be tough at this level.  
Selections:  4-1A-2-3
Race 9:  #8 Life's a Stage drops in class looking for one final turf start this year after coming with strong run into a fast pace to share a victory last time.  Needs some pace, but has run well over this turf course at this time of year in the past.  #5 Bartiromo and #6 Chow Fun ran well enough when settling for 2nd and 3rd behind a heavy favorite last time, and they are logical players in this spot.  On dirt, we will give one more chance to #11 A Prettydixie, who couldn't challenge a front-running winner in the slop last time.  
Selections:  8-5-6-10