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TimeformUS Race Analysis

 

 

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TimeformUS Analysis for November 13

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday November 13th
 
 
Race 1:  Much will depend on which half of the Jacobson entry gets to run, as both #1 Big Lute and #1A Artemus Paperboy have Irad Ortiz named to ride.  If it's Big Lute that lines up, we will take him on top; if it's Artemus Paperboy, we will look elsewhere.  Big Lute was on a suspicious drop off the layoff and claim, but he looked no worse for wear in burying that field with a 92 TFUS Speed Figure.  If he doesn't run, #3 Kitchen Police is interesting with his speed off the layoff.  Linda Rice has already brought two runners back from long layoffs at this meet, and both have run very well (Oltre' Oro dead-heated for the win off of a 217-day layoff, and Touching My Toes missed in a photo first back from a 104-day break).
 
Selections:  1-3-5-4
 
Race 2:  #5 Idiosyncratic has come up short in both career starts to date, but he has given the impression that there is plenty of potential in there in the process.  Went early and wide in both career starts to date, and may do better under more patient handling.  #1 Melville made a big run from the pace first time out, and made that run early in the race before ultimately tiring late.  Trainer gets a strong 99 rating with second-time starters.  #4 Hay Oats and Water is a very well bred first-time starter for Team Valor.  He gets a 98 Breeding Rating for turf routes, and his dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner on grass while earning over $1.5 million.  
 
Selections:  5-1-4-9
 
Race 3:  #1 Speedboat Sally drops back down in class with a trainer change to Jason Servis (98 rating first time with trainer), and does so as the fastest horse in the race, bringing recent TFUS Speed Figures of 86-91-88-85-85 into this spot.  #2 In Kelly's Defense is the ML favorite, but she is tough to take as she drops off the claim after bleeding when last seen in September.  She has speed, and Rudy excels off the claim (98 rating).  #3 Darnley Bay gets a cut-back in distance as she returns to NY for an emerging trainer, and her best race will make her a player in here.
 
Selections:  1-2-3-5
 
Race 4:  #5 Island Candy goes first off the Michelle Nevin claim (100 rating) and gets an important turn-back in distance here after finding the flat mile too far last time.  Has some speed and won't need to improve for her new trainer to be effective in this spot.  #8 Ah Gaga drops back to an appropriate level in her second start off the claim after trying a much tougher spot last time (Race Rating of 90 vs. today's 81).  Has run competitive speed figures all along, and earned a new top of 85 in runner-up finish in the slop two starts back.  #3 Wisdom of Oz was pulled up and vanned off after chasing a fast pace going longer on the rise last time, but he has bounced back from a performance like that before. 
 
Selections:  5-8-3-4
 
Race 5:  #4 One Penny Piece raced on gamely but had little chance to impact late in a race that held together up front last time, and she was also compromised two starts back when unable to secure clear passage in the stretch.  She fits well here and may be the right kind of price.  #1 Bargaining Table ran her Aqueduct turf record to 3-for-3 after a perfect-trip score over pace-setting #10 Issheit here on opening day.  Nicely drawn inside, and may have a better pace scenario this time as Issheit faces pressure from #9 Porvoo.  #2 Thundering Gale will also benefit should contested fractions develop, as they did in her win over this trip two starts back. 
 
Selections:  4-2-1-6
 
Race 6:  #1 Right Decision had to steady hard in the early stages of her debut, and she continued on well through the stretch run despite not factoring in the outcome.  Mott tends to do much better with his 2yos as second-time starters, especially as they stretch out on dirt.  #3 Genre raced on to be second-best in her sloppy track debut for Pletcher (100 rating with second-time starters) and has the benefit of a race over this distance already.  #6 Miss Cobblestone switches from turf to dirt for McPeek, who is 3 for 4 with 2yo maidens making that surface switch in NY this year.  
 
Selections:  1-3-6-2
 
Race 7:  #1 Cloture has improved steadily all year long for Shug, who tends to keep them going in the right direction.  Takes the next logical step after winning two of her last three starts.  #5 Premium found 1 1/4 miles too far last time, but she had run quite well going shorter prior to that and figures to appreciate the cut-back while getting lasix for the second time.  Perhaps #8 Little Journey will also appreciate getting cut back a bit in distance after disappointing last time behind Premium, but she'd still be tough to take at any short price.  #7 Bohemian Dance has failed to live up to her big pedigree, but she drops out of stakes company to a more likely spot, and she does seem to have improved since getting lasix over here.
 
Selections:  1-5-8-7
 
Race 8:  #7 Seal Team Four contested the pace going shorter when returned from a layoff last month.  Figures tighter with that one behind him, and new trainer gets a perfect 100 rating second off the claim and a 97 first-time lasix.  Not thrilled that #6 Woke Up Tired has needed another 101 days since returning from a layoff at a demanding distance at Saratoga, but he showed enough as an early season 3yo to follow and is a dangerous horse if ready to start showing improvement.  #2 Spider Roll is a very short price on the ML, and can certainly win, but he had a perfect trip before running down a distance-challenged Keen's Cupla last time, and we'll be against him if he is indeed a heavy favorite.
 
Selections:  7-6-2-5
 
Race 9:  #2 Simple Love drops in price for Clement after missing narrowly for $50k last time.  Similar effort makes her tough, and she has the tactical speed to land a perfect trip from her inside post.  #8 Outer Orbit was torched by racing too close to a fast pace when up in class for her most recent start on turf.  Can do better at this level.  #9 Chow Fun has back races that make her the horse to beat in this field, but could go either way after failing to show up with anything when last seen on the drop at Saratoga.  Drops again after 88 days off. 
 
Selections:  2-8-9-1
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for November 12

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Wednesday November 12th
 
 
Race 1:  #7 Ziggy Moondust has the best speed from an outside post, and he may be able to build upon his recent TFUS Speed Figures of 75 and 77 as he catches fast dirt for the first time.  #1 Imposing Figure debuted on an inside-speed-favoring track on September 1 at Saratoga and was forced to chase the front-running winner from the outside all the way.  Gets trainer change to Jacobson, who has already posted 12 wins over the first 9 race cards here.  #2 Shinnecock Bay was also wide in that Labor Day race at Saratoga, and he faded after chasing Ziggy Moondust in the slop here on October 22.  May be able to do better over a fast track that is playing fair.
 
Selections:  7-1-2-4
 
Race 2:  #8 Day Six has improved his TFUS Speed Figures in every start so far (68-80-86-89), and he ran winning races both 2 and 3 starts back before getting wired by repeat winner Sublime last time.  Drop in class makes him tough.  #7 Dividend's last two races are the best he's ever run, and he was given no chance last time when rated to the back of the field in a race in which the pace failed to develop.  #4 Mambo At the Gym was in too tough when raised in class last time, and he also found himself too close to a pace that collapsed.  
 
Selections:  8-7-4-6
 
Race 3:  #1 Cherokee Artist has disappointed recently in Florida, but he had run one race after another that would make him too much for theses horses prior to heading down there, and he may catch the right scenario here with several committed speeds signed on.  #6 My Adonis is fresh off the claim after overwhelming weaker here just 4 days ago.  Has back races to get to that would make him a player here on the rise, and his new trainer gets perfect 100 rating off the claim.  #3 Broad Rule hasn't run fast enough to beat this field recently, but is another with races to get to, and he will also benefit if a contested pace develops.  
 
Selections:  1-6-3-2
 
Race 4:  A fast pace is projected for the opening leg of the Pick 6 (with a three-day carryover of over $227k), which figures to suit #6 Call Wil.  Earned a TFUS Speed Figure of 92 for easy win last time on grass, and a similar performance in this spot makes him tough.  #1 Sonnyandpally parlayed a perfect trip into victory when dropped back down in class last time.  Has had a couple of starts rained off the turf since then, but his best effort puts him there, and he projects for a nice ground-saving trip from the inside.  #5 Raglin River has been holding good form recently and can also benefit from some pace, but he's a question mark taking on more distance in this spot.
 
Selections:  6-1-5-4
 
Race 5:  #2 Big Guy Ian raced on gamely after contesting the pace throughout a muddy six furlongs last time.  Seems to have benefited from recent turn-back to sprinting, and a repeat of 101 TFUS Speed Figure earned last time makes him the horse to beat.  #1 Dyker Beach often settles for minor awards, so is difficult to take on top, but he goes for Jacobson, has posted a recent win, and has been stuck racing on wet tracks recently.  
 
Selections:  2-1-6-3
 
Race 6:  #14 Street Game has been in solid form for trainer Michelle Nevin, and he showed a new dimension when confidently rated to the back of the field last time before storming by horses in the stretch.   Chad Brown doesn't often play the claiming game, but he has success when he does (100 rating off the claim) and his new acquisition #2 Jonrah is already competitive with this bunch.  #3 Balderdash has rounded back into form for an underrated trainer, and he had a less-than-ideal trip when turned back to sprint most recently. #5 Compliance Officer has lost a step or two at age 8, but he can still race competitively at the right level, which he may have found here.  
 
Selections:  14-2-3-5
 
Race 7:  #3 Foxbeau has a layoff to overcome, but she gets some class relief for her return and is competitive in this kind of race if ready off the break.  #5 Manhattan Gin has speed to take advantage of in this field, which is expected to favor runners on or near the early lead, but we will be surprised if #8 Untiltherewasyou doesn't have some speed in this spot as she cuts back to sprint on dirt with a switch to Rosario.  #4 Da Wildcat Girl may not catch an advantageous pace scenario for her closing style, but she has overcome that in the past and has been holding good form.
 
Selections:  3-4-8-5
 
Race 8:  #4 Writingonthewall has won his last 5 dirt races around one turn, and 7 of his last 10 on dirt overall.  Continues to hit hard at the age of 9 for top trainer, and can either set or stalk the pace, as required.  #7 Leilani's Ticket needs some pace out front to set up his late run, and while Pace Projector favors runners up close in this spot, there is some potential for a set up with either of #1 Pretension or #1A Goodtolook (only one will start with Ritvo named on both), #2 Smokem's Charm and/or #5 Sol the Freud capable of showing speed.
 
Selections:  4-7-6-3
 
Race 9:  #4 Gear Jammer is a logical contender based on his recent races.  He ran best when on the pace two starts back and may try those tactics once again with blinkers going on for this.  #7 Fulmer was unlucky in debut to run into the impressive Kerjillion and settled for second best.  Still raced on well in there to finish clear of the others.  #2 Boldlee will have to stretch out effectively in order to contend, but he deserves another chance after getting stuck in traffic and winding up with no room to run in the stretch when last on turf.  
 
Selections:  4-2-7-5
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TimeformUS Analysis for November 10

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Monday November 10th
 
 
Race 1:  #2 Alice and Trixie ran well enough vs. some much better fields before the layoff (lowest Race Rating was 10 points higher than today's 56) to think that she will be tough if ready to go right away.  Returning horses from layoffs is one of the things this trainer does well (79 rating overall, 86 in sprints off layoffs of this duration).  #6 Hangingwithsonny has run some OK races in the past.  Drops in class after show of speed in first start back from a layoff.  #3 Built in a Day put in a bit of a run in her Saratoga debut and has since run on a pair of sloppy, sealed tracks, which she didn't have to like.  Switches from a 7-lb. bug rider to a leading journeyman.  
 
Selections:  2-6-3-7 
 
Race 2:  #9 Space Oddity stayed in off-the-turf debut to gain some experience, and raced on without impacting in useful-looking debut.  Half-brother to turf stakes winner Selenite figures to appreciate getting to grass.  #8 Thrown of My Own raced very greenly in Saratoga debut sprinting on grass, and he was unwisely sent into a pace duel with the impressive Breakin the Fever last time.  #11 Heavenly Sun has plenty of turf in his pedigree and debuts for an underrated trainer. 
 
Selections:  9-8-11-1
 
Race 3:  Aptly named #5 American Solider will make his debut on special Veterans Appreciation Day card, so hunch players figure to be out in force.  Brings good works in from Fair Hill base for a top trainer, and he is a half to County Corrections (4-for-9 in his career so far) and to Jor Jar, who won his one and only career start for these connections, and did so on this track.  #1 Saratoga Wildcat and #2 Furyofthenorsemen debuted in a tough spot behind a pair of promising runners in Ready for Rye (89 TFUS Speed Figure for the win) and Mawthooq.  Both eligible for better this time.  #6 Madroos is an expensive son of Indian Charlie (91 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints) debuting for top connections, and his outside post will benefit him, especially if the track continues to play toward the outside, as it has all week long.  
 
Selections:  5-2-1-6
 
Race 4:  #4 Jumelaka found a tough field for her debut at Belmont, but she flashed the kind of speed in there that will make her dangerous on the drop.  McPeek pulls solid 89 Trainer Rating MSW-to-MCL.  #2 Gabby's Brown drops after getting out-paced to the front for a slightly higher tag first time out.  May wind up on the chase once again, but she ran well enough first time out, and Rudy is highly rated across several relevant categories.  #1 Ferzetti adds lasix for the first time for Contessa, and #6 Birkenhead ran a bit better than it looks after a tough wide trip first time on dirt.
 
Selections:  4-2-1-6
 
Race 5:  One more chance for #5 Where's Danny, who has held deceptively good form on turf all year.  Has valuable winning experience over this turf course, and he was badly hampered in traffic at a crucial point two starts back before trying a distance too far last time.  #10 Royal Blessing was caught behind a slow pace when dropped in class looking for an overdue win last time.  Goes first off the claim for a dangerous trainer (95 rating first off the claim).  #7 Grand Rapport has been a model of consistency since returning from a long layoff at the turn of the year.  Drops from stakes try; we'll see if he can hold that good form for his new trainer.  #9 Best Actor has only managed two starts all year, but he has faced tougher both times and has the back form to contend.  
 
Selections:  5-10-7-9
 
Race 6:  #4 I Want You to Know figures to benefit from this turn-back in distance after paying the price for contesting fast paces in back-to-back races going longer.  Always liked him better going shorter, and he projects for a much more comfortable trip with the pace this time.  #7 Socialsaul is the horse to beat as he enters back quickly once again for Jacobson.  He has impressed in winning his first two starts off the re-claim, and he is entered right back at the same level.  
 
Selections:  4-7-2B-1/1A
 
Race 7:  Not sure where #7 Storm has been for the past 70 days, but the 3yo gelding has made few mistakes on grass, has proven form over this course, and may still have more upside.  #6 Ocala Jim returns quickly for the second straight start after flat overpowering a field at Belmont 15 days ago.  Been on a good run for an underrated trainer, and may be the horse to beat in here.  #11 Artic North turns back out of some longer tries, but that shouldn't be a big disadvantage to him, and he has re-found his good form for this trainer.  
 
Selections:  7-6-11-1
 
Race 8:  Wide-open 8th may well come down to trips, but there are some dubious horses pegged at modest prices on the ML, including #1 Big Town and #8 North Ocean.  We stand with #7 Regulus, who has been holding good form for Gary Contessa in some tougher spots. He has handled this kind of distance in the past.  Trainer Chris Englehart has done a tremendous job getting #6 Chairman Now back into form. He has run one competitive race after another, dating back to early June.  #5 Springcourt will have to maintain his good form off the claim, but he did well to overcome a slow early pace to defeat Chairman Now last time. 
 
Selections:  7-6-5-8
 
Race 9:  Five of the runners making up this field exit the 6th race from October 13 at Belmont, where they finished 2nd-through-6th.  After a closer look at that race, we don't really want any of those horses, though we may consider using #12 Too Good to B True should she draw in from the AE list.  The new face we will take is #2 Happy Easter.  She made a winning turf debut for a tag at Monmouth, and did so while closing down an odds-on favorite through the stretch.   Three subsequent turf starts have all come vs. allowance company.  #5 It's Your Dime finally picked up her first win when last seen back in July.  Can't be a good sign that she has basically missed the entire turf season since, and she will have to get a mile right off the layoff.
 
Selections:  2-6-1-12
 
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Big Apple Babies for Monday, November 10, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Monday, November 10,2014

Race 3, 2-year-olds, 6 furlongs, dirt, 1:18pm

MADROOS (dark bay/brown colt, Indian Charlie – Malibu Legacy, by Malibu Moon) is the first foal from his dam. She won both of her starts as a juvenile, both sprinting, the first on all-weather and the second on dirt. She went on to pick up a stakes placing in the Cheap Seats Stakes in December of her three-year-old campaign here at Aqueduct. Malibu Legacy is a half-sister to stakes winner and G3-placed Shameful, best known as the dam of Indian Blessing. Like Madroos, Indian Blessing was sired by Indian Charlie. The 2007 Champion Two-Year-Old Filly and 2008 Champion Female Sprinter was a five-time G1 winner who earned just shy of $3 million.
Owner: Shadwell Stable
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Sales history: $360,000 Keeneland September yearling


Notes: Kennesaw Pride’s dam is a half-sister to three stakes horses, including G3 Tampa Bay Derby winner Equality (Mt. Livermore). American Soldier’s second dam was a two-time listed stakes winner and twice graded placed, including a win in the Interborough here at Aqueduct.

 

ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction