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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for November 29

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday November 29th
Race 1:  On turf, #9 Red Guard has run well enough to win a race like this in each of his first two starts, and will likely go favored once again if he gets the chance to run.  #2 Grey Wizard took a while to get off the inside and into the clear for the stretch, but he finished well once able to accomplish that and can do better with that one behind him.  If we're off turf, of the 3 MTOs, 2 are first-time starters, and  one of those is #8 Dontbetwithbruno, a Tiz Wonderful colt sent out by Pletcher. 
Selections:  9-2-5-1/1A
Race 2:  #1 Wavell Avenue is the horse to beat as she turns back after pairing up her top TFUS Speed Figure of 84 in maiden win going longer last time.  Has speed on the inside, and Pace Projector favors runners on or near the lead in this race.  There is the chance that #4 Benny's Bullet, fresh off the claim for the dangerous Michelle Nevin, could have the kind of speed to make things tougher on Wavell Avenue than anticipated.  Should that be the case, we would look to #5 Live Love Laugh, who is second off the layoff after keeping up a long wide run last time, at the expense of the disappointing #3 Wraith. 
Selections:  5-1-4-3
Race 3:  On turf, #6 Fresh Feline was in receipt of a great ride when gamely getting up at Saratoga, but wasn't so lucky last time when hopelessly blocked all through the stretch.  Has talent and upside for a trainer who is going very well right now.  #5 Seda Francesa hasn't been able to get a race to go since September, when she was jammed in traffic without ever coming clear.  #9 Fashion Fund is a strong closer dropping out of stakes company.  
Selections:  6-5-9-3
Race 4:  #3 Dame Dorothy enters the Grade 3 Comely undefeated and the horse to beat for Pletcher.  Has earned TFUS Speed Figures of 98 and 97 in two dirt routes, and figures to still have more upside.  #4 House Rules is the most interesting alternative for Jerkens.  She earned new top figure of 101 in the slop last time, but that was vs. inferior horses, and she has not been close in graded stakes company in NY this year.  Three-ply Darley entry of #1 Penwith, #1A Snowbell and #1x Divided Attention all have something to recommend them, but it may be impossible to get value if they all run.  Of those, we prefer Snowbell.
Selections:  3-4-1x-6
Race 5:  #7 Good Pick Nick brought $625k as a yearling as a half to a pair of 2yo stakes winners, and debuts for top connections from a good post.  Chad Brown doesn't do as well with his 2yos debuting on dirt as he does on turf, but his #4 March is a half to the speedy Eightyfiveinafifty, who was a Grade 3-winning sprinter around here a few years ago.  #3 Cat Fiftyfive didn't run poorly at all behind the talented I Spent It on debut.  Been away 150 days since that race, but has apparently been training well lately.  
Selections:  7-4-3-2
Race 6:  #11 Street Game will try one more time after having several races rained off the turf since posting impressive last-to-first score back in mid-October.  Has been back in good form for Michelle Nevin, and excels with "give" in the ground.  #2 Powerful Instinct drops after racing wide in a race that had an inside flow last time.  Good post from which to save some ground this time.  #7 I Got Id is a lightly raced three-year-old with upside, and he lost his best chance with a bad stumble at the start last time.  
Selections:  11-2-7-1
Race 7:  #1 Pulling G's was impressive right off the bat when dueling with a heavily favored winner from start to finish in a fast race, before coming away second-best with a TFUS Speed Figure of 104.  He was an easy winner in the slop here earlier in the meet and takes the next logical step for a hot trainer.  #8 All My Memories has disappointed in his last two starts, but he had shown potential prior to those races.  He's best as a sprinter, so the turn-back will work for him, as will catching what we hope is a fast track.  #2 Soldier Inthe Rain has not had many opportunities to race on dirt, but he has come through when given the chance.  Liked his last effort at Keeneland, and also like this trainer change.  
Selections:  1-8-2-6
Race 8:  Grade 2 Demoiselle may just come down to which of the eight 2yo fillies entered handles the 9 furlongs best.  #7 Angela Renee may hold the advantage along those lines, as she is already a Grade 1 winner over 8.5 furlongs and around two turns.  She's logical, and the horse to beat, but we have never thought so highly of her. We want alternatives.  #5 Gap Year was held up behind horses for a long way before coming clear and running down the leaders late at Keeneland over a route of ground last time.  She endured a tough trip when tried in a Grade 1 prior to that.  #1 My Cara Mia is an interesting longshot, meeting no killers, and she is a half to Carameaway, a talented dirt router with over $330k in the bank.  
Selections:  5-7-1-8
Race 9:  Grade 2 Remsen will go with a full field of 2yos, and just one of them has more than a maiden win to his credit.  Pace Projector indicates that it will be run at a fast pace, which, if true, figures to put these lightly raced colts to the test.  With little else to go on, we're taking the horse we believe to be the most talented, and that is #10 Classy Class.  He was among the most impressive 2yos to win in NY this year (in our opinion, anyway) when smashing maidens with a 97 TFUS Speed Figure, which is the top figure in the field.  #12 Frosted just broke his maiden here 30 days ago but did so impressively, has the pedigree and connections to continue on, and has earned solid speed figures of 93 and 94 in his last two races.  #11 Ostrolenka is a talented NY-bred, and the lone entrant with more than a maiden win to his credit.  Klaravich/Chad Brown entry of #2 Leave the Light On and Market Conduct will also make our tickets.
Selections:  10-12-11-2/2B
Race 10:  Grade 1 Cigar Mile closes out a stellar card, and has drawn a solid field of 9.  #2 Itsmyluckyday disappointed as a heavy favorite in the Kelso last time, but we thought he got an overaggressive ride in going early to contest the pace, and he paid the price late.  Can be more patiently handled with stretch-out speeds #1 Private Zone and #6 Secret Circle signed on here.  #9 Bourbon Courage got the right turn-back and fired big in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, coming up just short at the end.  Comes right back in another good spot, but we wouldn't want to go too short on him.  #1 Private Zone and #6 Secret Circle also exit the BC Sprint and are supposed to be tough here with a typical effort, though we don't love either of them going the one-turn mile.  #5 Transparent is just getting underway as a 4yo and has real ability, and #8 Regally Ready is a longshot who ran very well with a tough trip last time.  
Selections:  2-9-5-8

TimeformUS Analysis for November 28

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Friday November 28th
Race 1:  Having any scheduled turf races remain on is a dicey proposition at this point, but if the Friday opener somehow stays on grass, #7 Dreaming as Always figures tough based on two career starts for Clement.  TFUS Speed Figure earned for narrow miss last time is tops in the field on turf, and she's clearly eligible for better still.  #10 Maura's Pass has been unlucky more than once in the past while appearing to be a difficult ride.  Has some ability, and this trainer change is not viewed as a negative.  On dirt, #5 Lutheran Miss makes sense but is far from reliable, so how about either the firster #2 Outtacypresshills, who is a half to the talented West Hills Giant, or #8 Letters of Fire, who did a ton of work while contesting the pace in dirt debut at Hawthorne last time, and gets a positive trainer change? 
Selections:  7-10-6-5
Race 2:  #2 Blue Collar Cat is one of the few runners to have disappointed from this barn recently, as he exits tiring try over a mile here 19 days ago.  Didn't think much of that effort, or that field overall, but he had run better races prior to that, and think the turn-back may make all the difference.  #1 Flat Leaver has had little to offer through three starts to this point, but he's dropping now for Hushion (100 trainer rating MSW to MCL), and this is the right kind of field.  #5 Hampden Fiveone has run the best dirt races to this point, but he's also had the most chances and is unlikely to show any further improvement.  
Selections: 2-1-5-6
Race 3:  On turf, #6 Satisfaction has used her speed to her advantage more than once in the past, and reprising those tactics would suit her well in this field, which lacks much in the way of pace.  #2 Wigwam Baby steps up and stretches out directly off of a maiden win, but her trainer knows which ones to send longer distances, and he is always dangerous when shipping in.  #1 Neolexia will be trying to close, which has been the cause of some of her trip troubles in the past, but she has some ability and is a threat with the right trip.  On dirt, #12 Lotsa Noodles is dropping out of a tough spot chasing the talented House Rules.  Had won five in a row over off tracks prior to that one. 
Selections: 6-2-1-9
Race 4:  #6 Wild Freud was away last before rushing up to contest a fast pace along the deeper inside paths in his debut.  That was a solid effort all around, and he figures tough if running as well right back, though he is entered into a similar race on Thursday.  #1 Face gets strong Breeding Rating of 92 for dirt sprints, and his trainer has won with 3 of the 9 runners he has debuted for a tag on dirt this year, at odds of 7/1, 8/1 and 11/1.  #3 Radamel drops again after giving way badly at Belmont last time.  Has flashed the kind of speed that can be dangerous at this level in both prior starts. 
Selections:  6-1-3-8
Race 5:  #7 Stalagmite was unfortunate to be contesting the pace along the inside off the re-claim for this trainer on November 5th, a day when the rail was not the place to be.  Has the kind of speed that can make him tough in this race, which, according to our Pace Projector, will favor runners on or near the lead.  #2 Ice Wagon has been holding good form all year long while having trouble finding the winner's circle.  Typical effort makes him a player.  #9 Mach Seven has switched back to dirt for last three starts and gotten back to his good form.  Just missed pulling off big upset here last time, and handles off-going should those conditions prevail.  
Selections:  7-2-9-5
Race 6:  #5 Cherokee Artist had no chance to catch front-running Glickman when shipped up from Florida last time, but finished well in his own right to be a clear second best.  Has run several races in the past that would make him too much for this field, and he drops to a level where he is supposed to be tough.  #6 Street Shark also drops in class while in good form, and he was stuck along a dead rail when contesting the pace last time.  #3 Dan and Sheila has been holding good form without winning, and he had no chance to impact front-running off the claim.  Will need some pace to close into, and may not get much of it.  
Selections:  5-6-3-2
Race 7:  #1 Run a Dubb Dubb was in early contention before coming up suddenly empty in return from long layoff last month.  Tough in here if rebounding second off the break.  Sister Margaret returned from a layoff and had no problem handling muddy, sealed track en route to second victory from three career starts.  Lone loss came in game runnerup effort to the talented Princess Violet, who is a player in the Grade 3 Go for Wand later today.  #6 Shea Darby will have to be ready to go off the long layoff against the top one, but she has improved her TFUS Speed Figures in every start to date, topping out at 88 when last seen in February.   
Selections:  1-7-6-5
Race 8:  On turf, #8 Indian Starlight found open company allowance foes too much last time (Race Rating 94 vs. today's 87), but is a better fit at this level and has been in good form since switching to this trainer.  #6 Starship Pleasant never wins, and she has blown more than one perfect-trip chance since arriving in NY this year, but she can get the right trip and did have real trouble in her most recent start.  #4 Perfect Step had to have needed her last off of a 773 day layoff, and she actually raced on well in that spot to be 3rd.  Interesting that she would be claimed directly off of a layoff that long, and Asmussen gets a 93 rating off the claim.  On dirt, Go Olivia Go was re-claimed by Jacobson, for whom she overcame a speed-favoring track to win two back with an 86 TFUS Speed Figure.  #5 Bounty Pink is making her first start since being vanned off the track back in June, but she has won 4 straight dirt races since claimed by Linda Rice.
Selections:  8-6-4-9
Race 9:  Highly competitive running of the Grade 3 Go For Wand may require some spreading in the Pick 4.  #6 Princess Violet has paired up TFUS Speed Figure tops of 106 in posting back-to-back wins in convincing fashion.  Has rated comfortably in both of those wins, which will play well in this field as Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace in on tap.  Contested fractions will certainly help the chances of #5 Willet, who continues to go well as a 6yo in some tough spots.  #3 Street Girl is also at her best closing, and she exited her last race with a legit excuse after being shuffled back to last through the turn before rallying for 2nd late.  #2 Endless Chatter has much to prove in a race like this one, but she has been holding good form for a top trainer, and she was ridden as if something was amiss from outside the quarter pole of that Grade 3 try last time.  May be a good sign that she is entered right back at this level.
Selections:  6-5-2-3
Race 10:  #6 Bossy Boots hinted at some ability earlier this year, and can run from off the pace, which may play well in this field.  Has a layoff to deal with, but is eligible to have improved during the time away.  #1 Honeychild contested the pace in a race that went to closers going longer at Keeneland last time.  Back in with NY-breds, and the turn back is a positive.  #5 Stonely Heart and #10 Moldavite have squared off twice already, and both ran well enough to win this first time out.  Neither backed that race up in the slop second time out, but they are players in here.  Of the two, we give the edge to Moldavite.
Selections:  6-1-10-5

Big Apple Babies for Saturday, November 29, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Saturday, November 29, 2014

Race 1, 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 12:00pm

HEADY CREEK (dark bay/brown colt, Giant’s Causeway – Van Lear Rose, by Stroll) is the second foal from his dam and the first to race. Van Lear Rose won a pair of stakes races at Woodbine, including the G3 Mazarine Stakes, enough to earn her the Sovereign Award for Champion Two-Year-Old Filly. Both of those victories came on an all-weather surface. Simply Precious, a half-sister to Van Lear Rose, is a the dam of Bear’s Gem (Peaks and Valleys), a stakes winner of more than $360,000 who has also done her best running on all-weather.
Owner: MeB Racing Stables & Brooklyn Boyz Stables
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Sales history: $190,000 Keeneland September yearling

DONTBETWITHBRUNO (bay colt, Tiz Wonderful – Stomping, by Dixieland Band) is a half-brother to Cyber Secret (Broken Vow), winner of last year’s G2 Oaklawn Handicap and G3 Razorback Handicap. Cyber Secret was a debut winner at two before developing into a multiple graded stakes winner at four. Two other foals from Stomping have run with one being a winner.  Stomping is a half-sister to Open Toe (Proud Truth), a multiple stakes winner.
Owner: Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Sales history: $52,000 Keeneland November weanling; $100,000 Keeneland September yearling; $180,000 OBS March 2-Year-Old in Training (One furlong in 10.1: video)

Notes: The Catmancan’s second dam, To the Queen, was a G3-placed full sister to G2 winner Yarrow Brae. That’s the family of local stalwart Esteemed Friend. Rollie Mass just misses the cutoff. He is a half-brother to four stakes-placed runners, led by $260,000-earner Flashy Kid (Flashy Bull) and G3-placed Stoic (Forestry). Stoic is the dam of Peruvian Champion Imported Sprinter Ole Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus). Invisible Crown’s second dam is a full-sister to Sisti’s Pride, placed in the G3 Tempted here at Aqueduct as a two-year-old.


Race 5, 2-year-olds, 6 ½ furlongs, dirt, 1:52pm

MARCH (dark bay/brown colt, Blame – Lifeinthefastlane, by Unbridled’s Song) is a half-brother to speedy, though quirky, Eightyfiveinafifty. That one picked up a pair of impressive Aqueduct wins as a three-year-old, breaking his maiden by better than 17 lengths and taking the G3 Bay Shore. Five other foals out of Lifeinthefastlane have run and all are winners, though none at two.
Owner: Robert LaPenta
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Sales history: $320,000 Keeneland November weanling

GOOD PICK NICK (gray/roan colt, Tapit – Mayan Milagra, by Menifee) is a full brother to Dancinginherdreams, winner of the G2 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old. Dancinginherdreams won both of her starts at two, with a sprinting win on Keeneland’s Polytrack preceding the Pocahontas. She earned over $320,000 and picked up additional graded placings in the G2 Davona Dale and G2 Forward Gal as a three-year-old. Mayan Milagra is also the dam of Doubled (Exchange Rate), winner of the Sorority Stakes as a two-year-old and stakes placed on three other occasions. Her only other foal to race was also a winner at two.
Owner: Stonestreet Stables
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Sales history: $625,000 Keeneland September yearling

ON TAP (gray/roan colt, Tapit – Fantastic Shirl, by Fantastic Light) is the fourth foal from his dam, all of whom have won and two of whom have earned black-type. Fantastic Song (Lemon Drop Kid) broke his maiden first out at two on the grass at Saratoga before finishing third in the G3 Pilgrim. Magnificent Shirl (Heatseeker) became a winner on the turf in February of her three-year-old season in her fourth lifetime start. She subsequently finished second in Santa Anita’s China Doll Stakes. She’s favored in the fourth at Golden Gate, a mile allowance on turf, about 3 ½ hours after On Tap’s race. Dam Fantastic Shirl, a stakes winner and multiple graded stakes placed, comes from a tremendous family. She is a half-sister to MG1 winner and $1.2 million earner Shakespeare, Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner and $1.3 million earner Perfect Shirl, and MGSW Lady Shakespeare.
Owner: Chester & Mary Broman, Sr.
Trainer: Linda Rice
Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez
Sales history: $200,000 Keeneland September yearling

Notes: Ship Distributer’s dam is a stakes placed half-sister to a multiple-stakes winner in Mexico.


* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare
* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner
* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare
* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner
* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000
* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000
* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner
* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner
* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction


TimeformUS Analysis for November 27

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday November 27th
Race 1:  #7 Foxbeau makes her second start back from a layoff after contesting the pace and tiring in her return.  Drops again, and has the speed in a race for which Pace Projector gives the edge to frontrunners.  #4 Radiant Cut couldn't impact after a wide chase back on dirt last time, but that came over a sloppy track, and her better dirt races have come over fast tracks.  #1 Heidi's Holiday is tough to take at 2-for-31 lifetime, but she's a trier, has run some competitive figures, and tends to outrun her odds.
Selections:  7-4-1-5
Race 2:  Turf racing is in jeopardy considering the forecast this week, which is unfortunate, as this shapes up as an interesting maiden race on the grass.  We thought #9 O'Bear ran very well, and quite a bit better than it may appear, last time.  He had to steady hard early on before putting in a long middle-move, and he continued on quite well before finally flattening out in the stretch.  We like him at a price on turf, and can stick with him if he elects to stay in on the dirt.  #11 Memories of Peter also came through with a solid effort when stretched out for his second career start.  Dangerous if we are on turf and he gets in.  #2 Brother O'Connell and #4 Space Oddity have both run well enough to win this on grass but figure to offer little in the way of value.
Selections:  9-11-4-2
Race 3:  One final chance for #5 Giantinthemoonlite, who to this point has been unable to back up his impressive debut win back in May.  He hit the sidelines for 101 days after that win, and has been unfortunate to have been wired in each of his last two starts.  #2 Mighty Zealous came with a good run off the layoff here just 12 days ago, but was ultimately turned away by favored Leroy Jr. and settled for 2nd best.  Earned new TFUS Speed Figure top of 86 for the effort.  #4 Howaboutwe is interesting at a price as he makes what is essentially his 3yo debut and does so while finally getting back to a sprint, which figures to suit him better. 
Selections:  5-2-4-6
Race 4:  #4 Wild Freud was a big price but ran very well on debut after breaking slowly and rushing up to contest a fast pace on the rail, which was not the place to be on November 15.  #10 Scattered Dreams drops back down for third start off the claim, and he will appreciate the turn-back, as well, after chasing and tiring over a mile last time.  #11 No More Options can be given another chance or two back on dirt, which is the surface he's bred for.  Raced greenly when outrun in debut.  Drops in class.  #1 Chasing Bubbles has speed on the rail and tries again after failing to hold stretch leads in both prior starts at this level.   
Selections:  4-10-11-1
Race 5:  Our Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is in the offing for this solid allowance/optional claimer with seven entered.  That is the opposite scenario encountered by #5 Saint Vigeur upon his return from a long layoff at Belmont, where he trailed a slow pace and failed to impact.  #3 Erik the Red has found a tough spot off the layoff, but he's a solid fit from a TFUS Speed Figure perspective and is a solid closer.  #4 Mosler has taken advantage of back-to-back favorable pace scenarios in posting a win and a second-place finish with a new speed figure top of 99 recently.
Selections:  5-3-4-1
Race 6:  Considering the early forecast around here, it seems unlikely that we will have turf racing on Thanksgiving.  If we do, #1 Beauty Surprise is dropping in price after getting wired last time for $35k.  Prior turf form makes her a clear horse to beat here.  #4 Reckless Move was outfinished by Beauty Surprise when they met back in September, but her turf form is competitive, and she figures even more dangerous on the main track.  #3 Academyperformance has been competitive since dropping down in class and is a solid fit here based on her TFUS Speed Figures.  On dirt, #10 Three Way Ticket exits blowout score in scheduled dirt race in Kentucky and figures tough to beat with a similar effort.  #13 Stage Name is a better dirt horse, but would have to show up with something more than she brought last time.
Selections:  1-4-3-10
Race 7:  #1 Indian Brut is returning from a layoff of 439 days, but he earned a solid TFUS Speed Figure of 88 in lone start as a 2yo, and did so while against the grain of an inside-speed-favoring track.  Lasix will be on this time.  #4 Flat Jack and #9 Flag On the Play are the logical horses based on prior performance, and they exit November 1st affair in which they had little chance vs. the stakes-bound Pulling G's.  #2 Seagate has a big pedigree (99 Breeding Rating for dirt) for top connections and is one of the few firsters from this barn to get lasix on debut.  Be no surprise to find that he can really run.
Selections:  1-4-9-2
Race 8:  Grade 3 Fall Highweight drew a strong field (109 preliminary Race Rating), led by the pair of #1 Salutos Amigos and #5 Bakken dropping out of the Breeders' Cup Sprint.  Bakken has been a talent from day one, but late to come around this year, and will be making his third start back from a layoff (100 trainer rating for Chad Brown).  This is a good spot for him to finally break through.  Salutos Amigos finished well to continue his good 2014 run since joining the Jacobson barn, and he did so despite wheeling back quickly and shipping across the country.  Closing sprinter should have plenty of pace out in front.  His entrymate, #1A Strapping Groom, is a prior Grade 1 winner and is the actual highweight in the Highweight.  He is first back from a layoff here.  #7 La Verdad is a fast filly getting in light at 126, and she has run the fastest TFUS Speed Figures in the field.  
Selections:  5-1-7-1A
Race 9:  #10 Better Man has run the fastest dirt figures in the field and is taking the kind of class drop here that is supposed to make him tough.  With Pace Projector indicating that a fast pace is on tap, he figures to get the right trip.  #6 Market Sense switches to dirt on the drop after chasing a fast pace on turf.  Half-sister Gee Linz was a 7-time winner on dirt, with earnings of over $164k.  #11 American Gold was outrun over a sloppy track first time out.  Trainer has been getting better results from maidens with experience as opposed to first-time starters.
Selections:  10-6-11-4