Thursday, January 01, 2015
Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer
Race 1: #6 Agate will clearly need more than she showed up with off the layoff, but she came through with efforts in her first three career starts that will win this, and we'll give her one more chance as she drops again. #1 Glenbrook lacks for stamina, but she projects to make the early lead in this spot, and she gets a positive rider change. #2 Peach Lake and #7 Senso are contenders and both figure to appreciate turning back, but they are not the kind to take short prices on. #8 Puparee is a firster to consider for a good trainer, and she is related to several multiple winners, but her dam is getting up there in age and her production has tailed off recently.
Race 2: #1 Cee No More owns the three top TFUS Speed Figures in the field on dirt and is unlikely to find a much better spot than this one as he drops to the lowest level yet. Should be tough if bringing the kind of speed he had in last dirt route on October 1st. #4 Robert Noble and #7 Thug Daddy figure to be his biggest obstacles, which only makes his position stronger.
Race 3: #3 Majestic Affair took a game run before settling for second best to Cinco Charlie, a four-time stakes winner as a 2yo, last time. Earned new top figure for that effort, and projects for the right trip in this short field, which is not lacking for pace. Has most to fear from #1 Joe Franklin, who has run well in all three starts to date while putting fine speed on display. Figures under the gun from his rail draw, and has yet to change leads in the stretch, which may work against him at the end if he has to battle early. #2 Ship Distrurber was a clear-cut winner on debut for one of the top first-out trainers in the game, but he did it while riding the crest of an inside-speed-favoring track.
Race 4: #5 Bella Fachi has handled distance in the past, and she may prefer getting back on fast dirt in a reasonable spot today. Like the addition of blinkers for this after being taken back strongly early last time. #4 Lil' Zilla has handled the switch to dirt recently, though she will find this competition a bit tougher after parlaying a perfect trip into a maiden win last time. #7 Flirtatious Spring is a good favorite to stand against, though she is far from impossible in this kind of field. #6 Gingee never wins, but she ran every bit as well as Bella Fachi last time despite a wider trip.
Race 5: #9 Penthouse Party has run figures in the past that make her a major player in this race, and she is finally entered at a level where she figures to be competitive, after trying much tougher at big prices recently. #1 Star of the Forest has improved since getting on dirt for her last four starts, and she was a more convincing winner than the margin may suggest last time after doing all of the hard work. #3 Taylor Jagger was no match for an odds-on winner off the layoff, but she went well on the inner for this trainer last year and can do better this time.
Race 6: MSW for newly turned 3yo NY-breds has the look of a race that could produce some runners. #7 Deficit Hawk goes for a top debut trainer who is stabled here year round and who has won with 8 of the last 16 firsters he has sent out in dirt sprints. Half-sister Hot Rendezvous has some talent, with 5 career wins and over $230k in the bank. #2 One Sided debuts for Pletcher and has been prepared for his debut in Florida. Worked 10 flat at auction in March, but did so awkwardly and may have benefitted from the time taken since then. #1 Wild Ham will have to be quick from his rail draw, but he is either a half or full brother to several fast horses.
Race 7: 7th may come down to trips, with well-matched field of filly and mare sprinters set to go, so let price be your guide. #6 Pura Vida Zen has continued in good form for different trainers over a long series of races, and she came through with a good effort despite rearing up badly at the break last time. #9 My Place has been a disappointment overall, but she fits well here, and she did have a tougher trip than Pura Vida Zen when defeated by that rival last time. Has a good post on the outside and new trainer gets perfect 100 rating off the claim. #3 Swakopmund just missed when last at this level sprinting on dirt, but that was at 7 furlongs, and she will need some pace help over this shorter trip.
Race 8: #8 True Romance has flashed ability from day one, earning TFUS Speed Figures of 98 and 102 for first two starts and then putting in a big run on the outside through the turn in stakes company at Laurel. #6 Blithely was against the track while wide on Cigar Mile Day, but she was on an improving pattern leading into that race and is going to appreciate turning back in distance. #4 Kara's Match Point can do better second off the layoff after failing to threaten behind a sharp wire-to-wire winner last time. Has plenty of ability and is a big price on the ML. #5 Killaday earned TFUS Speed Figures of 102 and 108 for first two starts over this track early last year, but she was with tracks that were kind to inside speed both times and has landed in a tough spot right off the break.
Race 9: #6 Patty and Nooche will be a big price, and it's possible that he is just off form at this point, but he is best when he has pace to close into, and Pace Projector likes his chances to catch a set-up in this spot. #8 Ke in Motion takes a big drop after gunning to the lead on a fast pace vs. better horses last time. Faces tough pace scenario here, but is supposed to be tough at this level while third off the layoff. #3 March Too also drops and may be able to settle away from the pace as he turns back in distance. #4 Island Therapy will be suited by the expected pace, and he finished gamely back on dirt while outkicking Patty and Nooche last time.