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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for January 24

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday January 24
Race 1:  No one to trust in MCL route for NY-breds to kick off card.  Perhaps #2 Norm the Giant can show more as he stretches out for an underrated trainer in start #2.  Drops a bit while adding blinkers, and his debut race has already produced a pair of runners who have come back to run well, including runner-up Copernicus, who blew away maidens with ease on Thursday.  #7 Wild Ham is the field's lone MSW dropper, which makes him of immediate interest.  Had little to offer first time out, and his Breeding Rating of 67 for dirt routes fails to inspire confidence, but the class drop should help him some.  Both #4 X Max (improved suddenly last time) and #5 Igotthediscoinme have speed and that can make them dangerous, assuming they can avoid each other early.
Selections:  2-7-5-4
Race 2:  Remarkable 10yo millionaire #7 Be Bullish is the horse to beat, as he has been seen back in good form recently.  Pace Projector indicates that the runners on or near the early lead will have the best of it, which would be to his benefit, as it was in convincing win last time.  Interested to see what we get from #2 Piquant, who rebounded to post a solid win two starts back.  He was oddly ridden last time, and at one point appeared to be in the midst of being eased out of the race, before re-rallying through the stretch.  Best race makes him a player in here.  #5 Hurry Up Alan has run very well in both career dirt sprints, and he is dangerous off the Jacobson re-claim.
Selections:  2-7-5-3
Race 3:  Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is coming for the $125k Rego Park.  #5 Deficit Hawk impressed in debut win here a few weeks ago while tracking away from a fast pace (81 TFUS Speed Figure) and may be in position to capitalize once again.  #1 Breakin the Fever was beaten to the lead by #2 Regal Minister when they ran 1-2 around the track on November 16, and they may be destined to hook up early in this spot.  Regal Minister will appreciate the turn back he gets here.  
Selections:  5-1-2-3
Race 4:  #1 Promise and Hope was a big price when finishing behind a couple of these last month, but considering the disastrous start he was off to in that race, we thought he did well to be as close as he was at the end.  #8 Ekhlaas got the best of a fast duel in that same race before being overtaken by a pair of perfect-trip closers in the stretch, including #4 King Rontos.  May be destined to hook up once again with the speedy #2 Jackson P shipping in, but he has drawn perfectly on the outside.  
Selections:  1-8-4-2
Race 5:  #1 Second City ships across the country off the Jacobson claim (100 rating) after posting his first win in over two years last time.  He's the kind of horse that the good claiming trainers do well with, in that he has the back form to get to, and Jacobson has consistently proven dangerous with the horses he brings in from out of town.  #7 Springcourt has spent time in most of the top claiming barns on the circuit, and he has held good form for all of them.  Drops back down, but he's at his best with some pace to close into, which, according to Pace Projector, could be a problem for him today.  #5 Big Town projects for a better trip up close and goes first off the claim for dangerous owner/trainer combo.  
Selections:  1-5-7-2
Race 6:  #9 Sea Raven goes off the layoff with a trainer change to Leah Gyarmati (100 rating first off trainer change, from a limited sample).  Lightly raced, with handy speed to be up close in a race expected to favor that running style, and his three dirt routes from last year make him a player in here without further improvement.  #7 Fleet First is dangerous second off the layoff with room to improve, as well.  Needs to find early speed of some kind to avoid continuously being compromised by dynamics and trips.  #8 Howaboutwe makes his second start back from a long layoff, as well.  Can have another chance or two after running mostly in the wrong races as a 3yo.
Selections:  9-7-8-10
Race 7:  #2 Whispering has handled distance before, and she was pushed wide vs. a strong rail when unable to impact her last race.  TFUS Speed Figures of 89 and 90 for her two starts prior to that make her a big player in here.  #3 Checkupfromzneckup dominated maidens in the slop with an 88 two back, and she was also stuck outside against that gold rail on Cigar Mile day.  Still came through with a strong effort, and is the horse to beat.  #4 Majestic Marquet continues to go well out of town,  where she can be kept around two turns.  Needs some pace out in front, but she's a consistent and capable closer.  
Selections:  2-3-4-7
Race 8:  #2 Wealth to Me figures to appreciate the distance more than most in this field, and he will appreciate dropping out of stakes company for this.  Good effort running over the 21-for-32 lifetime Lucy's Bob Boy in the mud two back.  #7 Percussion takes big class drop after coming up empty in the Queens County.  That makes two disappointing efforts in a row since returning from a layoff, and places him in the position of having to prove that he still has it in this spot.  Recent good run that #6 Classic Sense has been on seems to be more a matter of excellent placement than anything else, but he earned a new TFUS Speed Figure top of 96 last out, and he likes a wet track, which seems likely to be in play on Saturday.
Selections:  2-7-6-5
Race 9:  Like that #5 Dr Disco was freshened a bit off the re-claim, as he had been on a long run of races throughout 2014, but fact that he is entered back for $10k after being taken back for $20k is reason to tread lightly.  #3 Won Great Classic may have simply gone off form, but he was chasing from the outside last time, a day when the rail was strong, and he has viable excuses for each of his two starts prior to that, as well.  Best race puts him there, and he's too big of a price to ignore.  #10 Mop Head couldn't gain on front-running Say Mr. Sandman last time and settled for 2nd best.  Game in dueling down heavy favorite Big Lute two back with a 90 TFUS Speed Figure.
Selections:  3-5-10-9

TimeformUS Analysis for January 23

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Friday January 23
Race 1:  Trainer David Jacobson goes with the kind of entry here that makes these races tough to like.  He claimed #1 Duke of the City out of a very good effort 50 days ago for $25k, and enters him back for half of that price.  He claimed #1A Vegas No Show 54 days ago for $35k, and also sees fit to drop him precipitously for his first start since.  Either (or both) is likely to be too much for this field, and Jacobson is one of the guys who seem to get away with this stuff, but there are obvious reasons to tread lightly.  Outside of those two, #2 Futurazo was in too tough last time and drops to a more reasonable spot.  Came through with a nice performance at Belmont at the end of September, and continued in good form at Finger Lakes after that.  #6 Southern Proper is properly spotted off the claim, and he has the tactical abilities to pull a good trip here.  
Selections:  1/1A-6-2-7
Race 2:  #7 Real Deal Lady took money on debut in a cheap race at Finger Lakes (she was part of an entry, but it's hard to believe her mate was the focus of the wagering, based on her running lines) and was putting in a run behind a runaway winner after getting outpaced early.  Has the pedigree to stretch out effectively (Breeding Rating 77 for dirt routes) as a half to the 7-time route winner My Honey Laurie.  #2 Jackie Black is the horse to beat off the claim for Linda Rice (81 rating) after cutting a fast pace sprinting last time.  Projects to be on a clear early lead on the stretch-out, and TFUS Speed Figure of 68 earned last time tops the field.  #4 Golden Starlet outfinished Jackie Black after that one threw in the towel in that fast-paced sprint.  Also projects to be up close as she stretches out.
Selections:  7-2-4-5
Race 3:  #6 Best Play goes for low-profile connections, but he has the best back races and ran deceptively well last time after being held up behind a slow pace for a long way.  #7 Papa Tom lacks a winning profile at 2-for-41 lifetime, but he has rarely ventured in this cheaply, and he also has back races that make him too much for this field.  It's that kind of race.  #1A Distant Thoughts is lightly raced enough to project some further improvement, and he has the tactical speed to pull the right kind of trip in here.  #2 Solly's Mischief may be the horse to beat, and perhaps this is simply the right spot, but he's better as a closing sprinter, a point driven home as he hung badly in each of his last two races.  
Selections:  6-7-1A-2
Race 4:  #1 Lehigh Five debuts for one of the best first-out trainers in the game in Rick Violette (100 rating with first-time starters in sprints, and has won with 6 of the last 8 he has sent out on dirt).  Expect him to be ready.  #10 File for Divorce turns back after getting caught four-wide throughout a route contested over a track favoring the rail.  Has shown some flashes of run and will be a big price.  #9 Eye Love Michael debuts for a dangerous barn and is a half-brother to the fleet sprinter The Rhythmisright (103 TFUS Speed Figure top).  
Selections:  1-10-9-6
Race 5:  #1A Big Lute has earned TFUS Speed Figures between 94 and 97 for each of his last 5 starts on dirt, and he is going to be tough on this field if he shows up with a similar effort today.  He also happens to be very difficult to trust, having gone down to defeat at odds of 7/5, 9/5, 8/5, even money (twice), and 1/5, just in his last 6 starts.  They have him to beat, but #5 Shot to Win has run fast enough more than once to be competitive and has the speed to keep Big Lute occupied on the pace.  If he can make the favorite work, #8 First Ranger is an interesting alternative dropping in class for his second start back from a layoff and finally getting back on a fast track (presumably).  He showed some promise on the inner dirt last year and has that TFUS Speed Figure of 87, earned for the allowance win in March, to build upon.
Selections:  8-1A-5-1
Race 6:  It's a bit hard to believe that #4 Kara's Match Point's career record sits at 1-for-12 considering how well she has run on several occasions, but that is indeed the case as we approach the two-year anniversary of her lone career win.  She's second off the layoff today for a trainer who does well in that situation (85 rating), and her good race will likely be enough in this spot.  Still, we understand any reservations concerning her.  #1 Had It All is a very dangerous speed over this shorter distance.  She tends to be stopping late after blasting out to long leads, but she has managed to hold on in each of her last three races on dirt over 5-or-5.5 furlongs.  #3 Pennymine is as consistent as they come, and she came with her run to close down a fast pace last time at a big price.  Likely to be closing again.  #9 Evandear buried a field over this trip in her last start in Kentucky, and she dug in gamely after making a fast pace going long in her first start for Jacobson last time.  Problem is, that was 399 days ago, and returning horses from layoffs is not one of the things this barn does well (60 rating).  
Selections:  4-1-3-9 
Race 7:  #6 Champagne Ruby has been in improved form while kept exclusively with stakes company as a 4yo, and earned a new TFUS Speed Figure top of 91 when forced to chase a fast pace two starts back.  She was compromised last time when strongly rated back in a race that held together up front, but Pace Projector likes her chances to catch a better set-up this time.  #2 Ms. Sylvia A. can also benefit if a pace develops, and she has improved her figures right along this year (76-76-80-83-85) for a top trainer.  #7 Keep Bustin returns from a layoff on the drop, and she has shown up without fail vs. her fellow NY-breds.  #5 La Bella Valeria was in career form in 2014 for this trainer.  Paid the price after getting involved in a fast duel last time, but showed the ability to stalk two back, and that may serve her well in this spot.  
Selections:  6-2-7-5 
Race 8:  #2 Organic Gemini finished well with little chance to impact after severe trouble at the start last time in what was a nice step forward.  #10 Watch the Tie landed a good trip and finished well while no threat to the talented All Is Number first time out.  Feels like the horse to beat for trainer in midst of a good run.  #5 Final Chapter checked in a distant 3rd on debut, well behind his stablemate Global Positioning, who returned to win his next start with a TFUS Speed Figure of 86.  Gets blinkers and lasix for his second start.  #9 April Color debuts for Pletcher after bringing $160k last March.  Won't be surprised if he can run, but Todd gets an un-Pletcher-like rating of 63 with older maidens at Aqueduct and is just 4 for his last 33 with first-time starters on the inner.  
Selections:  2-10-5-3

TimeformUS Analysis for January 22

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Thursday January 22
Race 1:  #5 Reckless Move vacated the gold rail in the stretch last time and wound up being outfinished by a rail-skimming longshot late.  She was up against dynamics two starts back when chasing an enervating pace all the way before tiring in a race that fell to pieces late.  Pace Projector favors her up-close running style for this race, and her new trainer, who doesn't claim much, does get one of his better ratings when stretching horses out (65, as compared to his overall rating of 38).  #1 Three Way Ticket will have to bounce back to one of her good races in her second start off the claim, but she does have a couple of those to get to.  Was compromised by unwisely trying to come through on the inside in the stretch here on November 27th, a day when the rail was best avoided.  #7 Miss Macarena goes first off the claim for a very good trainer after overcoming a slow pace to break her maiden last time.  Ran deceptively well two back when stuck wide throughout against a strong rail.
Selections:  5-1-7-2
Race 2:  #1 R Cardinal One took a solid bump at the break and raced greenly behind a slow pace while failing to factor first time out.  Seems most eligible to improve in a race looking for a horse like that.  #3 Cats Landing drops in to face MCL company for the first time today as an apparent new gelding.  Was away slowly in a much tougher spot last time.  #4 Copernicus was crashed hard at the start in his first start for a tag, but he recovered to race up with the slow pace that day and came away second best.  Seemed set up to get the money that day at 30/1, and it almost worked, but he's 9/5 on the ML for this race.
Selections:  1-3-4-8
Race 3:  Tough to be against ML favorite #4 Sun and Moon on the drop here, as she turns back to a better distance while sporting all of the fast races in the field (8 of her 11 career races have resulted in a TFUS Speed Figure that is faster than anything any of her rivals has ever run on dirt).  #1 True Blue Nation drops in for a tag for the first time in her career, but does so off of a 270-day layoff.  
Selections:  4-1-2-7
Race 4:  #1 Marc the Sky was off slowly in her debut before rushing forward to chase a solid pace in a race won by the talented Sonora.  Eligible to build upon field-best TFUS Speed Figure of 78 with that experience behind her.  #5 Kacy Lauren is a new face to this re-drawn race, and she finished up well after getting out-paced early in educational debut in the slop.  Trainer gets perfect 100 rating with his second-time starters.  #8 Miss Valued was also off slowly when debuting in the same race as Marc the Sky, and she was done early after giving brief chase.  May have more speed if able to get away cleanly from her outside post.  
Selections:  1-5-8-4
Race 5:  Solid $50k claiming sprint goes through the speedy #5 Luckysdream, who is fresh off of a front-running score off the layoff last month, and who projects to be in control up front once again.  Claimed back at the first opportunity by Jacobson (100 rating off the claim), he has earned triple-digit TFUS Speed Figures in each of his last 6 races (107-107-112-116-101-113).  If we try to beat him, it will be with #4 Don Tito.  He'll have to prove that he can still produce a race that can beat Luckysdream, as he did when they last met, in March of 2014, but he appears to have been injured in his rough-trip loss last May, and he is eligible to step it back up with his return race behind him (where he was protected from being claimed).
Selections:  4-5-2-3
Race 6:  #4 Money Machine is a bit of an unknown on this surface (chased the pace without enough in lone dirt start, though that was off of a layoff), but goes first time for Jacobson (100 rating), and he was impressive in overcoming a pair of troubled starts to win on turf and synthetic last summer.  He's a welcome new face to this group.  #3 Brendan G and #8 Horatio are the two familiar faces we could take, but they have had their chances and often settle for minor awards.
Selections:  4-3-8-2
Race 7:  #7 On a Snowy Evening has picked up her game noticeably for this trainer, and earned a new career top TFUS Speed Figure of 82 last time despite not getting the greatest trip or ride in the world.  That 82 is the top last-out figure in the field, save the 89 #6 Rose Quartz received for blowout win riding a gold rail.  #8 Clean Eleven stepped it up in her third start back from a long layoff last time, earning a new top figure (81) of her own in first route attempt.  
Selections:  7-8-1-2
Race 8:  #6 Ginned Up battled on to get 2nd after contesting the pace throughout debut.  Seems set to improve with experience, and has solid 86 Breeding Rating for dirt routes.  #4 Barrel of Dreams stretches out after landing in a pair of tough sprints to begin her career.  Should be speed in this race, and gets a rider upgrade.  #1 Razia Sultana tries again after proving no match despite controlling the pace last time.  Perhaps she'll be better off from a stalking position, but she is likely going to need more than she's brought to the track with her so far to come out on top today.  #8 Yourcreditisgood may not want to go this far, but she has shown flashes of ability, and she may benefit from switch to more aggressive bug rider after being rated to the back of the field over a speed-favoring track last time.
Selections:  6-4-1-8

TimeformUS Analysis for January 19

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Monday January 19
Race 1:  Not sure that we want either ML favorite #3 Lexsoya or third choice #4 Porcia, both of whom return from layoffs today, though they are the ones to beat.  A firster like #6 Desert Spirit could be interesting (Dominick Schettino gets solid Trainer Rating of 88 with first-time starters in sprints), though betting on 5yo first-time starters has to be a low-ROI endeavor.  Instead, we'll take a flyer with #2 Hereslooknat U Kid, who was green on debut after breaking very slowly and returns with lasix on.
Selections:  2-3-4-6
Race 2:  Competitive group of older filly and mare routers in the 2nd.  #5 Taylor Jagger appears to be rounding back into form for Nick Esler.  She was no match for #1 Sweets Galore when cutting the pace two back, but she was off the layoff there and improved last time while under confident handling despite a wide trip.  Like that she maintained her good form for this trainer last year.  #6 Penthouse Party is finally entered back at the right level, which we've been waiting for.  Not thrilled that she was listed as a vet scratch from a proper-looking spot on January 2nd.  #1 Sweets Galore is logical right back from a good post.  
Selections:  5-6-1-3
Race 3:  #1 Stallwalkin' Dude has picked up his game a bit for Jacobson and earned a new career top figure of 102 last time while contesting a fast pace from between horses in the Claiming Crown.  Loves a wet track, which, considering current conditions, is likely on Monday.  #4 Leilani's Ticket is also a logical contender bringing solid form into this race.  Has handled wet tracks himself in the past, and he may have been best last time when contesting the pace before falling to a closer.  #6 Chapman also handles wet, and he projects to be able to make the early lead in here, to his advantage.
Selections:  1-4-6-3
Race 4:  Chad Brown wins with many first-time starters (mostly on grass), but he also gets a perfect 100 rating with second- time starters, like #4 Overawe.  Thought this one rallied gamely through the stretch after dropping out of position on the turn, and he galloped out past the winner in educational debut.  #2 Tencendur makes his second start after a promising debut trying wide run through the turn before tiring in the stretch.  Held an entry in the Jerome before wisely scratching, so his connections much think he's ok.  #3 Beyond the Green may have to improve upon his established form if the top 2 come forward, but he unwisely gave up his rail position to the eventual winner last time (December 28th was a strong inside track) and wound up being narrowly outfinished by that horse at the end.
Selections:  4-2-3-8
Race 5:  #2 Prince Zurs makes NY debut after apparent private purchase by sharp ownership group, and TFUS Speed Figures of 85 and 90 for last two dirt starts are going to give him a say in the outcome here.  #5 Empower makes first start off the claim for Linda Rice, and he likely got what he needed out of that stretch duel off the layoff last time.  98 TFUS Speed Figure earned for maiden win over this track last year makes him very tough, if he can run it again.  
Selections:  2-5-3-4
Race 6:  #5 Exclusive Biz debuted in a tough race, chasing odds-on Kiaran firster Perchance.  Drops for 2nd start (Contessa gets 69 rating with MSW-to-MCL droppers, an improvement on his overall rating of 55), and she has twice breezed 3-furlong bullets since that first start, so she may have more speed vs. this group.  #4 Gabby's Brown has already lost 4 times at around this level, but she has speed and goes from a trainer who has struggled here to one who has been making all the right moves.  #3 Loaded for Bear drops down with a trainer change (Englehart gets 95 rating with new acquisitions).  Wet track may not be ideal for her after that last one, where she came up completely empty. 
Selections:  5-4-3-8
Race 7:  #6 Ke in Motion was gunned hard to the lead two starts back before tiring in a tougher race, and he was eliminated at the start while on the drop last time.  Should be prominent from the start as he gets a second chance at this level.  #7 Bajan Summer took on too tall of an order vs. allowance company last time, but he came with a strong run at this level two back to collapse a race that ultimately went to a closing winner.  
Selections:  6-7-5-4
Race 8:  Odds-on Repole-entry is led by #1 Micromanage, who overpowered a similar field in the Queens County last time with a new TFUS Speed Figure top of 111.  He may not be quite as good over shorter distances, but a similar performance makes him too tough.  Entrymate #1A Misconnect also ran well in that Queens County.  He's a game runner who will benefit from the shorter distance of this race.  #5 Schivarelli is just getting started after missing most of his 3yo season.  Earned big TFUS Speed Figure of 116 in the mud here last year, and was in too tough last time.  Feels like a better alternative than either #2 Abraham or #6 Irsaal, though those two also move up on wet tracks.
Selections:  5-1/1A-6-2
Race 9:  #9 Frogman Mel and #2 Face the Race exit the best last race of these, and they both ran well enough when 2nd/3rd behind a much-the-best winner there to be tough in this field.  Frogman Mel was wide throughout and stayed on better of the two last time, but Face the Race projects to be on a clear early lead according to our Pace Projector, and he can use that to his advantage.  #10 Mr. Lit has come away with minor awards without excuse in both starts since returning from a 589-day layoff.  Perhaps he will be set for better in his third start back.
Selections:  9-2-10-5