NYRA

The New York Racing Association


Print this Page Bookmark and Share

Blog

TimeformUS Race Analysis

 

 

resize1-200 2014-12-08_15-25-11 resize3-200

 

 

TimeformUS Analysis for January 4

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Sunday January 4
 
 
Race 1:  #3 Horatio earned TFUS Speed Figures between 85 and 90 for each of his seven starts between June 5th and November 30, any one of which makes him the horse to beat in here, and he found himself racing wide against the grain of a strong inside track here last week.  Gets a positive rider change to go along with the turn-back.  #4 Kid Blast has appreciated the switch back to dirt recently but has the feel of a horse who was value last time after encountering trouble two starts back.  #2 Sun Storm was finally back on track last time, overcoming a poor start and going on to post a convincing win.  That was a much weaker field (Race Rating 74 vs. today's 83) but both the 2nd -and 3rd-place finishers came right back to win.  
 
Selections:  3-4-2-1
 
Race 2:  #4 Relax made a late debut for good connections and wound up taking a hard bump at the start before getting stuck on a wide chase after an impressive winner (85 speed figure).  Can do better with that one behind her and is eligible to show some speed this time, assuming a clean break.  #8 Cat Ten also encountered major trouble at the start of that race, and she finished closer to Via Strata after recovering to chase her throughout.  Will also have more speed this time, though she has had more chances.  #2 Pop of Color had no problem clearing to the early lead but couldn't take advantage in sloppy track debut.  Gets a positive change to an up-and-coming trainer but will need to do better.  
 
Selections:  4-8-2-6
 
Race 3:  $100k Ruthless features Grade 2 winner #2 Paulassilverlining vs. a trio of second-time starters.  #3 Stormalina is fastest coming in off of impressive debut win in the slop with a TFUS Speed Figure of 94.  Wonder if she'll be able to reproduce that effort over fast dirt (though there is rain in the forecast, so be prepared to adjust accordingly), and her trainer has been ice-cold on the inner.  #4 Noble and a Beauty was one of trainer Rick Violette's many debut winners around here recently, but she was also impressive while overcoming some greenness in the stretch.  #5 Dickinson was never put all-in while chasing Noble and a Beauty in that race, and gave the impression of a horse who will come forward quickly with experience; adds lasix for step into stakes company.  
 
Selections:  5-3-4-2
 
Race 4:  Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap for this $25k claimer for older routers.  That figures to play to the advantage of #4 My Adonis, who is down in class for second start off the claim.  Has been campaigned as a closing sprinter recently, but he's better over a route of ground, and he posted his most recent win when stretched back out to a mile.  #2 Midnight Taboo will also appreciate having pace to close into, and he's first off the claim for Jacobson (100 rating).  Parlayed a perfect trip and ride into victory vs. cheaper last time.  
 
Selections:  4-2-1A-5
 
Race 5:  #3 Papous Mia Bella wheels back quickly after getting caught wide over an inside track last week.  Showed enough after a slow break to be a handful in here.  #7 Bella Forever owns the top Spotlight Figure in the field, and projects to be on a clear lead early, but she appeared to be done-in by distance last time, and shaving off just 70 yards today may not be enough.  
 
Selections:  3-7-6-2
 
Race 6:  #7 Liberty Fuze has been in over her head in three starts since arriving in NY.  Drops to a level where she is supposed to be tough and has drawn well on the outside.  #3 Cafe Au Lait is an unknown on dirt, but has earned competitive TFUS Speed Figures sprinting on synthetic, and is an interesting new face in a race featuring several runners in dubious form.  #6 Inaflash's form is far from dubious, as she will be looking for her third straight win as she makes her first start off the claim.  Was given a perfect closer's trip to defeat a slightly weaker field last time.
 
Selections:  7-3-6-2
 
Race 7:  #3 Jazzminegem got going too late when falling short of catching #2 Rock N Cozy for 2nd in fast-paced race last time.  Still earned new top TFUS Speed Figure of 87 while off of the layoff, and trainer tends to do better with runners who have had a race (85 rating).  Think Rock N Cozy may have run the better race of the two despite getting the lower speed figure, as he made an extended run from the back of the pack, but he possesses no upside.  #7 Verismilitude has some speed, which is expected to play well in this race according to Pace Projector, and he is first off the claim for an underrated trainer (87 rating off the claim).  
 
Selections:  3-2-7-8
 
Race 8:  #2 This Hard Land picked up a win when dropped to this level last time, and did so over a wet track, which he seems likely to encounter once again.  Consistently earns TFUS Speed Figures that suggest he will be tough in this kind of race for the near future.  #7 Seal Team Four couldn't stop a perfect trip #6 Joe Mooch when they squared off back in December, but he did a lot of work up on the pace that day, and Pace Projector likes his chances to get more comfortable this time.
 
Selections:  2-7-6-12
 
Race 9:  #1 Stickler has speed on both sides of her pedigree (98 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints), and her unraced dam is a half-sister to the Grade 1 sprinter Yes It's True.  Top connections consistently leave talented youngsters to winter in NY, and Kiaran has already saddled three debut winners on the inner during this meet.  #3 Eloquent Tribute has yet to build upon a promising debut run back in September, but she had trouble at the start two back, and was up against a speed-favoring track last time.  #7 Smart Alex debuted in a solid race (top 2 finishers are running in the Ruthless Stakes).  Trainer gets solid 81 rating with second-time starters.  #2 Alliteration brought $260k last April and will debut for hot connections.  Dam was multiple stakes placed in her career and Congrats is an underrated sire.
 
Selections:  1-3-7-2
 
black-white-TFUS-logo_copy

Comments (0)

 

TimeformUS Analysis for January 3

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at Aqueduct on Saturday January 3
 
 
Race 1:  #3 Oohlala was outrun behind a fast pace and failed to impact last time.  Figures to have an easier time keeping up with the pace this time, and holds the only acceptable dirt form in the field.  #1 Rockin Jodi has had nothing to offer on turf; drops in class and her half-siblings My Jopia and J L Bernstein have both been effective on the main track.
 
Selections:  3-1-4-2
 
Race 2:  #4 Say Mr. Sandman saw his form tail off a bit before he went to the sidelines at the end of October.  Earned TFUS Speed Figures in the low-to-mid 90s for all 5 starts during the last meet on the inner, and getting back to a race like that is going to give him a big look in this race.  #7 Island Sunset wheels back for second start off of a long layoff just 7 days after finding little to offer for $10k tag.  Has the back form to be tough here if he was just shaking off some rust.  Not thrilled to see #1 Mop Head entered back for half of his recent claim price by new trainer, but he is at his best sprinting and has shown that he can handle the main track.  
 
Selections:  4-7-1-6
 
Race 3:  #7 Night Patrol looked good winning first time back from a long layoff at Churchill, and he may not have cared for the sloppy track he encountered last time.  Drops back down for a trainer who has been hot lately.  #6 Abra has dangerous speed when he elects to use it, and this would be a good spot for him to do so according to Pace Projector.  #3 Non Stop is back down in class with back races that make him tough in this spot, and he ran one big race after another on the inner last year, including a couple of solid tries vs. stakes company.  #2 Energetico goes for a tag for the first time.  Barn has been cold since the opening of the inner track in NY, and this one has already failed at short prices several times out of town.
 
Selections:  7-6-3-2
 
Race 4:  #7 For the Luv of Lil drops down after trying middle move to no avail and then giving way vs. tougher last time.  Something like NY debut at Saratoga makes him too tough for this field.  #6 Regal Strike is a new face to consider for a trainer who has already saddled a Parx shipper to victory at this meet.  Distance the main question for him, but he ran well over a mile last time and is a prior winner over this trip on the inner.  #2 Poliziano may be the horse to beat from his inside post, but he is an infrequent winner, and the TFUS Speed Figure of 70 earned for that last win in November is unlikely to be good enough in this spot.
 
Selections:  7-6-2-1
 
Race 5:  Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap for NY-bred entry-level allowance route.  #7 Fleet First went to the sidelines after no-show run in the mud back in June but is lightly raced and was on an improving pattern before something went wrong last time.  #4 Alcolite makes second start off the claim for dangerous connections, and he shouldn't mind being farther away from the pace than he was last time.  #2 The Spotted Wonder may have to take up a tracking spot from his inside post, but he has appeared to be sitting on a win for a while now and is dangerous if able to work out the right trip.
 
Selections:  7-4-2-3
 
Race 6:  #11 Uninfluenced ships up from Florida to debut for Pletcher (100 rating with older first-time starters) with a string of solid-looking breezes in tow.  Like stablemate One Sided, who debuts in Friday's 6th, he was purchased back in March and has taken his time getting to the races.  #12 Madroos was green while racing on well in his sprint debut, then took a speed try going longer around two turns last time; turn-back for this is viewed as a positive, and he is drawn well on the outside.  #5 On Tap was stuck pressing the pace outside of Ship Disturber (goes in $100k stakes on Friday) on a day when the rail was gold and weakened late.  Can do better with that one behind him.  #1 Money Multiplier may want more distance as a half to the graded stakes winning router Intense Holiday, but he goes for sharp connections and is eligible to be a runner.
 
Selections:  11-12-5-1
 
Race 7:  #3 Towering Moon hasn't been seen since game try chasing a front-running winner while wide back in March.  Pace Projector indicates that he will have some pace out in front of him today, and he has been at his best off of layoffs so far, posting both career wins off of workouts.  #10 Mine Over Matter went back to the sidelines after failing to impact a stronger group off of a 258-day layoff back in November.  Has the back races to be hard on a field like this one, and he will also appreciate having some pace to close into.  
 
Selections:  3-10-6-2
 
Race 8:  Grade 3 Jerome for newly turned 3yos drew a field of 9, led by recent Grade 2 winner #9 El Kabier.  His speed is sure to be on display in this spot, much as it was in that front-running Kentucky Jockey Club score.  He was very well-ridden on the front end that day by Calvin Borel, and he will be re-united with that jockey today.  We think he has most to fear from the Pletcher pair of #2 Royal Burgh and #4 Ostrolenka, both of whom exit no-chance trips in the Remsen on Cigar Mile Day.  Ostrolenka is the more experienced and more accomplished colt to this point, and he has some real ability, but Royal Burgh flashed potential in his debut, and it may be wise to give him a long look at a price.
 
Selections:  2-9-4-1
 
Race 9:  #6 Private Thrill debuted with speed in the mud, and may be able to put it to better use as he drops for a trainer pulling a solid 93 rating with second-time starters.  #2 Watergate also drops in class after failing to come through in four tries at the MSW level.  Weaver gets a 91 rating dropping from MSW to MCL.  #9 Toasty Boy took some money in his sloppy track debut, but raced greenly and couldn't factor.  Adds blinkers for second career start.
 
Selections:  6-2-9-7
black-white-TFUS-logo_copy
 

TimeformUS Analysis for January 2

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #6 Agate will clearly need more than she showed up with off the layoff, but she came through with efforts in her first three career starts that will win this, and we'll give her one more chance as she drops again.  #1 Glenbrook lacks for stamina, but she projects to make the early lead in this spot, and she gets a positive rider change.  #2 Peach Lake and #7 Senso are contenders and both figure to appreciate turning back, but they are not the kind to take short prices on.  #8 Puparee is a firster to consider for a good trainer, and she is related to several multiple winners, but her dam is getting up there in age and her production has tailed off recently.  
 
Selections:  6-1-2-7
 
Race 2:  #1 Cee No More owns the three top TFUS Speed Figures in the field on dirt and is unlikely to find a much better spot than this one as he drops to the lowest level yet.  Should be tough if bringing the kind of speed he had in last dirt route on October 1st.  #4 Robert Noble and #7 Thug Daddy figure to be his biggest obstacles, which only makes his position stronger.
 
Selections:  1-7-4-3
 
Race 3:  #3 Majestic Affair took a game run before settling for second best to Cinco Charlie, a four-time stakes winner as a 2yo, last time.  Earned new top figure for that effort, and projects for the right trip in this short field, which is not lacking for pace.  Has most to fear from #1 Joe Franklin, who has run well in all three starts to date while putting fine speed on display.  Figures under the gun from his rail draw, and has yet to change leads in the stretch, which may work against him at the end if he has to battle early.  #2 Ship Distrurber was a clear-cut winner on debut for one of the top first-out trainers in the game, but he did it while riding the crest of an inside-speed-favoring track. 
 
Selections:  3-1-2-4
 
Race 4:  #5 Bella Fachi has handled distance in the past, and she may prefer getting back on fast dirt in a reasonable spot today.  Like the addition of blinkers for this after being taken back strongly early last time.   #4 Lil' Zilla has handled the switch to dirt recently, though she will find this competition a bit tougher after parlaying a perfect trip into a maiden win last time.  #7 Flirtatious Spring is a good favorite to stand against, though she is far from impossible in this kind of field.  #6 Gingee never wins, but she ran every bit as well as Bella Fachi last time despite a wider trip. 
 
Selections:  5-4-6-7
 
Race 5:  #9 Penthouse Party has run figures in the past that make her a major player in this race, and she is finally entered at a level where she figures to be competitive, after trying much tougher at big prices recently.  #1 Star of the Forest has improved since getting on dirt for her last four starts, and she was a more convincing winner than the margin may suggest last time after doing all of the hard work.  #3 Taylor Jagger was no match for an odds-on winner off the layoff, but she went well on the inner for this trainer last year and can do better this time.  
 
Selections:  9-1-3-2
 
Race 6:  MSW for newly turned 3yo NY-breds has the look of a race that could produce some runners.  #7 Deficit Hawk goes for a top debut trainer who is stabled here year round and who has won with 8 of the last 16 firsters he has sent out in dirt sprints.  Half-sister Hot Rendezvous has some talent, with 5 career wins and over $230k in the bank.  #2 One Sided debuts for Pletcher and has been prepared for his debut in Florida.  Worked 10 flat at auction in March, but did so awkwardly and may have benefitted from the time taken since then.  #1 Wild Ham will have to be quick from his rail draw, but he is either a half or full brother to several fast horses.  
 
Selections:  7-2-1-4
 
Race 7:  7th may come down to trips, with well-matched field of filly and mare sprinters set to go, so let price be your guide.  #6 Pura Vida Zen has continued in good form for different trainers over a long series of races, and she came through with a good effort despite rearing up badly at the break last time.  #9 My Place has been a disappointment overall, but she fits well here, and she did have a tougher trip than Pura Vida Zen when defeated by that rival last time.  Has a good post on the outside and new trainer gets perfect 100 rating off the claim.  #3 Swakopmund just missed when last at this level sprinting on dirt, but that was at 7 furlongs, and she will need some pace help over this shorter trip. 
 
Selections:  6-9-3-1/1A
 
Race 8:  #8 True Romance has flashed ability from day one, earning TFUS Speed Figures of 98 and 102 for first two starts and then putting in a big run on the outside through the turn in stakes company at Laurel.  #6 Blithely was against the track while wide on Cigar Mile Day, but she was on an improving pattern leading into that race and is going to appreciate turning back in distance.  #4 Kara's Match Point can do better second off the layoff after failing to threaten behind a sharp wire-to-wire winner last time.  Has plenty of ability and is a big price on the ML.  #5 Killaday earned TFUS Speed Figures of 102 and 108 for first two starts over this track early last year, but she was with tracks that were kind to inside speed both times and has landed in a tough spot right off the break.
 
Selections:  8-6-4-5
 
Race 9:  #6 Patty and Nooche will be a big price, and it's possible that he is just off form at this point, but he is best when he has pace to close into, and Pace Projector likes his chances to catch a set-up in this spot.  #8 Ke in Motion takes a big drop after gunning to the lead on a fast pace vs. better horses last time.  Faces tough pace scenario here, but is supposed to be tough at this level while third off the layoff.  #3 March Too also drops and may be able to settle away from the pace as he turns back in distance.  #4 Island Therapy will be suited by the expected pace, and he finished gamely back on dirt while outkicking Patty and Nooche last time. 
 
Selections:  6-8-3-4 
 

Comments (0)

 

Mike will be back in action Jan 1

Timeform US Analyst Mike Beer

Visit TimeformUS for Horses in Focus and Top Play for the Jan 1 card, and the full-card analysis will resume here for the Jan 2 card.

Happy Holidays and see you here in 2015!