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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for October 26

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Sunday October 26

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #9 Summation Time just missed in Monmouth debut, and he was rated into some traffic after breaking to a clear early lead last time.  Drops again.  For alternatives, we would go to a pair of new faces.  #3 Road to Rockport adds blinkers while switching to turf for his second start, and his dam won two of her three career starts on grass.  #8 Artie Crasher is a first-time starter who attracts Rosario, and his dam, who was unraced, is out of Statuette, a Grade 3 winner on grass.
Selections:  9-3-8-11
Race 2:  #3 Red Guard has a big pedigree, and he finished well after getting outrun early in promising debut.  Adds lasix for second start, a strong move for Shug (99 rating).  #1 Zennor has burned chalk players in first two career starts, but he may appreciate this surface switch, and he will also get lasix for the first time.  His speed may be very dangerous in this race.  #8 Andalusite has run well in both career starts to date, and he will be a square price in this race.  #5 Tweet Kitten and #6 Takeover Target debut for Chad Brown, who has been on a major roll with 2yo first-time starters on grass this year.  
Selections:  8-3-1-6
Race 3:  #5 Savvy Sassy impressed first time out, contesting a fast pace and drawing off with a minimum of fuss.  Earned a strong 98 TFUS Speed Figure for the effort and figures tough as she takes the next logical step.  #7 Storm Swept didn't run up to her best off the long layoff, but she has better races to get to, and her trainer gets a 99 rating second off the layoff.  #1 Dear Mama doesn't exactly land in an easy spot, but she's faced tougher in her three starts since arriving (Race Ratings of 96, 99, 97), and she flashed improved speed recently.
Selections:  5-7-1-4


Race 4:  #1 True Romance made a sweeping run around horses first time out and dueled gamely with a favored, front-running winner before coming away second-best in promising debut.  Will not need to match strong 99 TFUS Speed Figure earned for that effort in this spot  #5 Mallory Street was actually favored over a Pletcher first-time starter in her Saratoga debut last year, and she ran well despite greenness.  Had no shot in stakes race vs. Miss Behaviour when last seen, but that was 420 days ago.  #4 Royale Rose was no match for her impressive stablemate Savvy Sassy (see Race 3) in muddy track debut, but she may have more to offer second time.
Selections:  1-5-4-2
Race 5:  #7 Offering  Plan and #10 Vision Perfect both ran well enough when 2nd and 3rd recently behind Breeders' Cup-bound Imperia in the Grade 3 Pilgrim, and they are the two logical horses in this spot.  As an alternative, we could give #3 A Lot a chance.  He wasn't beating much in maiden win last time, but he overcame a slow pace to do it, and he has the pedigree to keep improving.  Mott strong with last-out maiden winners (99 rating).
Selections:  3-7-10-6


Race 6:  #1A Love to Run got the best of a fast three-way duel but had nothing left for the closers two starts back.  Will appreciate turning back off the claim, and he projects to be on the lead with a favorable pace scenario today.  #7 Shankopotamus is a question mark off eased running line when last seen at Saratoga, but his two starts prior make him the horse to beat in here, and his new trainer has had a very good meet.  #2 Holy Invader is likely just starting back with an eye toward Aqueduct, but he is one to watch as he ran very well first off the claim at the start of the year, and then endured a pair of tough trips on the inner before the layoff.  
Selections:  1A-7-2-4
Race 7:  #5 Jet Majesty has taken her good form to the main track recently, but she has handled turf just fine, and she may still have more upside in a field lacking much of same.  Projects for a nice trip tracking from the outside.  #2 Neck of the Moon has disappointed at short prices several times in the past, but she had real trouble last time when shuffled right out of contention through the turn before finishing well.  #10 Image of Noon continues to run well without winning.  Needs some pace up front, and needs to get going a little earlier. 
Selections:  5-2-10-7
Race 8:  #8 Powerful Instinct has turned his form around since joining Chad Brown's barn, and he was a convincing winner when last seen at Saratoga.  Lands in a race projected to be run at a fast pace, which suits his running style.  #12 Ocala Jim has also been in career form since getting a trainer change, and he returns quickly after getting rank and losing his best chance in a tough NY-bred stakes race 8 days ago.  Tough post.  #5 Asset Inflation will take on added distance for the first time, but he has been in raging form and has the kind of tactical ability to avoid being compromised by dynamics. 
Selections:  8-12-5-4
Race 9:  #5 Teen Pauline has earned layover figures with highly favorable circumstances for last three races.  Pace Projector indicates that she can control once again off the layoff, but we have to be against her as the ML favorite.  #1 Tapit's World finished gamely into a tough set-up last time, and she gets a big trainer change for her first start in NY.  #2 Dame Dorothy has had trouble making it to the races thus far, but has proven to be a runner when she has.  Top figure of 101 was earned over a sloppy track, but she has looked good winning all three starts over different kinds of going. 
Selections:  1-2-5-4
Race 10:  #2 Blisstering Strike gave way after chasing a fast pace three-wide here last time.  Lands in another race projected to be run at a fast clip, but she has run well from away from the pace in the past, and she faced a much better field than this one last time (Race Rating 87 vs. today's 77).  This is not a bad race for a new face, but not so sure we want #9 Perfect Step at a short price off of a 773-day layoff.  Assuming all is well, however, she will likely beat this field.  #10 It's Your Dime finally broke through with wire-to-wire score when last seen over the summer, but Pace Projector doesn't like her chances to get comfortable up front in this spot.  #1 Saratoga Karaoke disappointed last time, but she will appreciate having some pace to run into, and she closed down It's Your Dime with that kind of scenario to break her maiden back in May.
Selections:  2-1-9-10

Big Apple Babies for Saturday, October 25, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Saturday, October 25,2014

Race 2, 2-year-old fillies, 6 furlongs, turf, 1:21pm

RESILIENT ONE (bay filly, Hard Spun – Amandatude, by Aptitude) is a daughter of a $400,000 earner who was graded stakes placed on two occasions. Only one of three prior foals have run, the winner Closet E. Amandatude broke her maiden as a two-year-old in her fourth start before finishing second in both Delaware Oaks and Cotillion, both G2 events.

Owner: Brian Martin
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Sales history: $70,000 Keeneland September yearling RNA; $80,000 OBS April two-year-old in training (One furlong in 10.2: video)


TAP IT OUT (chestnut filly, Tapit – Great Intentions, by Cat Thief) is the fourth foal out of a multiple graded stakes winner. Great Intentions topped $425,00o with victories in the G2 First Flight and G2 Gallant Bloom. Two prior foals have won, one as a two-year-old. Great Intentions herself was a first out two-year-old winner.

Owner: Richard Santulli
Trainer: Alan Goldberg
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Sales history: $185,000 Keeneland September yearling RNA

GIGI’S KITTEN (chestnut filly, Kitten’s Joy – Blue Holiday, by Cure the Blues) is out of a mare who managed to top $300,000  in earnings despite never running in stakes company. She has gone on to produce a pair of stakes winners from six foals to race, led by a full sister to this one, Holiday for Kitten. G3-placed at two, Holiday for Kitten picked up her biggest win in the Thoroughbred Club of America (G2) at Keeneland. Blue Holiday’s other stakes winner, Notonthesamepage (Catienus) was second in the Tyro as a juvenile before taking the Spectacular Bid at three.

Owner: Mike Anderson
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Sales history: $157,000 OBS June two-year-old in training RNA (One furlong in 10.1: video)

Notes: More Than Rainbows’s third dam is the Hall of Famer Safely Kept. Emerald Pond’s second dam is MGSW Advancing Star.


Race 7, 2-year-olds, 6 ½ furlongs, dirt, 3:56pm

PERFORMANCE BONUS (bay colt, Discreetly Mine – Unlimited Pleasure, by Valid Appeal) is a half-brother to a trio of graded stakes winners, headlined by Unlimited Budget (Street Sense). Unlimited Budget won the first four races of her career, including the G2 Demoiselle, G2 Fair Grounds Oaks, and G3 Rachel Alexandra. Unlimited Pleasure’s other graded stakes winners are precocious Montbrook juveniles Beacon Shine and Jardin, winners of the G3 Flash and G3 Schuylerville respectively. Unlimited Pleasure, a half-sister to G1 winner Outofthebox, did not run at two but her first six starts included a debut win, three subsequent victories, and a stakes placing.

Owner: Klaravich Stables & William H. Lawrence
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Sales history: $120,000 OBS March 2-year-old in training (Quarter mile in 22.1: video)

HOLD ON(dark bay/browncolt, Harlan’s Holiday – Fondness, by Elusive Quality) is the first foal from his unraced dam. Fondness is a half-sister to a pair of runners who each earned more than $750,000. Bahamian Pirate (Housebuster) picked up his first Group win as a five-year-old and continued in stakes company until he was eleven, taking England’s G1 Nunthorpe at nine. The second half-brother, Strong Hope (Grand Slam) was victorious in both the G2 Dwyer and G2 Jim Dandy.

Owner: Lee Lewis
Trainer: Mark Hennig
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Sales history: $130,000 Keeneland September yearling


UNBRIDLED HERO (chestnut colt, Unbridled’s Song – Home Crowd, by Came Home) is the first foal from his dam, who broke her maiden as a two-year-old in her career debut. Both of her career victories and her stakes placing in the Ruthless came sprinting on dirt. Home Crowd is a half-sister to a pair of stakes winners, the multiple listed winner Throng and multiple graded stakes winner Funny Moon, whose biggest victory came in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks. Other members of the family include Temperence Hill and Vanlandingham.

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm
Trainer: John C. Kimmel
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Sales history: $325,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling

CLASSY CLASS (bay colt, Discreetly Mine – Collegiate, by Saarland) is the second foal from his G1-placed dam. Collegiate broke her maiden in June of her two-year-old season and went on to finish third in the G1 Spinaway. Collegiate is a half-sister to a pair of Argentinian-born stakes winners, including Good Student, who was G1-placed once imported to the United States.

Owner: Cheyenne Stables LLC
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Sales history: $120,000 Keeneland November weanling; $250,000 OBS March two-year-old in training (One furlong in 10.2: video)

NET GAIN (bay colt, Include – Triple o’ Five, by Elusive Quality) is the third foal from his dam, second to race. The first, Cat Five’ O (Pleasantly Perfect) won the Mistletoe Stakes at Remington Park as a two-year-old and picked up a trio of additional stakes placings, two as a juvenile. While Triple o’ Five failed to win, she is a daughter of G1 winner Stormy Pick. Stormy Pick achieved her greatest success as a two-year-old in taking the G1 Spinaway and G3 Sorority.

Owner: WinStar Farm
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Sales history: $325,000 OBS April two-year-old in training (One furlong in 10.1: video)



* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction



TimeformUS Analysis for October 25

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Saturday October 25

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  All things being equal, #5 Big Lute is the clear horse to beat in the opener.  Of course, all things are never equal on the racetrack, and Big Lute has some questions to answer here as he drops all the way down after being pulled up and walked off the track in his last race, which came 126 days ago.  Jacobson is one of the guys who seem to get away with this kind of class drop, so we will take him on top.  Main threat may be #7 D J Manlove, who has speed from an outside post and put up a 96 TFUS Speed Figure in his main track debut last year.  Hasn't run anywhere near as well in two dirt starts this year, but he's third off the layoff and at the right level.
Selections:  5-7-3-4
Race 2:  Thought #1 Neilinger made a promising debut despite finding traffic trouble in a race that has produced three stakes winners already.  Hasn't necessarily had the chance to back that effort up yet, so we will give her the chance here.  #5 Consumer Credit lost all chance when buried in traffic through the stretch in her debut, and she ran a much better race than Neilinger in off-the-turf mile last time.  #9 Greywalls drops out of pace-setting try in the Miss Grillo, and she also had some traffic trouble in that September 5th race that produced Consumer Credit.
Selections:  1-5-9-3


Race 3:  Solid field assembled for Grade 3 Bold Ruler, led by #6 River Rocks, who is exiting a gutsy front-running try in the Grade 2 Kelso.  Cuts back a bit from a good post as the horse to beat, but this is no easy spot.  Interested to see if #2 Romansh can show up with one of his good ones here on the turn-back.  He is clearly capable, but he has been unreliable from day one.  #1 Confrontation was against the track when fading back to last in the Grade 1 Forego, but he has been in good form and deserves another chance in a race like this.  We also think #4 Salutos Amigos deserves another chance after failing to find enough in the stretch of the Grade 1 Vosburgh.
He has turned things around in a big way since joining the Jacobson barn, and he ran every bit as well as River Rocks when they met up at Saratoga on August 31.
Selections:  4-6-2-1
Race 4:  We can make excuses for each of the last three starts made by #7 Wake Up and Go (gave up control of the pace to the eventual winner and then couldn't catch him on July 6; was hooked into a fast duel with a heavy favorite and paid the price on July 20; steadied hard and went out the back door early before finishing gamely last time), and we don't mind the slight turn-back to 7 furlongs for him at all.  #9 Luv Dakota Style drops in class fir a dangerous trainer and picks up Castellano.  #5 A Marked Man may be the one to beat as he drops down for the first time, and his lone try over this trip was perhaps the best race he has ever run.  #3 Spa City Treasure couldn't overcome a slow pace going shorter two back at Saratoga, and he was part of a pace that fell apart late last time.  
Selections:  7-5-3-9


Race 5:  $25k claimer over this distance on the inner turf seems destined to come down to trips, with a full field of 12 set to go.  #10 Frogman Mel has been a poor gate horse, and it has cost him more than once in his career already, so drawing toward the outside at this distance on the inner could be problematic, but he switches to Rosario, and he has held his own vs. better horses than this in the past.  One more chance for him.  #7 Chasin Chama is lightly raced (an advantage in a field like this) and has the kind of tactical speed to pull the right trip in here.  #12 Coexist pulled a good trip but was only second-best at this level last time, and he took the worst of the draw out in post 12.  We were impressed with the 2014 return from #11 Giant Jo, who went aggressively from the outside and overpowered maiden claimers.  Was strongly rated to no avail last time, but may benefit from more-aggressive handling.  
Selections:  10-7-12-11
Race 6:  We've been waiting for #4 Mental Iceberg to break through as a 3yo and will give him one final chance to do so here at a price.  An impressive debut winner over this course as a 2yo, he was badly hampered by a slow pace in his 2014 turf debut, and then ran into the impressive Storm in his next start.  Had enough traffic trouble last time in a $100k Stallion Series race to stick with him.  #2 Macagone didn't break sharply last time and didn't show his customary early speed, but he still raced on gamely through the stretch in what felt like an unlucky loss.  Likely to be the speed of this race, and he's dangerous.  #10 Blue Pigeon is tough to take off 5 straight losses as the favorite, but he closed gamely last time from behind a slow pace.
Selections:  4-2-10-12
Race 7:  Potentially loaded MSW sprint for 2yos has enough going on to bear watching for down the line, no matter the outcome today.  There are several interesting and well-bred firsters entered, but we will focus on the experienced runners here.  #3 Because I'm Happy was last out of the gate and outrun early behind the impressive Daredevil first time out, but he was running at the end to just miss 2nd and will be tough if improving upon that effort for a dangerous trainer.  #10 Street Jersey was bet strongly and raced on well for 3rd in his debut while earning a solid TFUS Speed Figure of 87.  #8 Mr. Discreet interests us with the surface switch as he has a loaded pedigree for dirt (100 Breeding Rating) and Pletcher gets perfect 100 rating turf-to-dirt. 
Selections:  8-3-10-5
Race 8:  Pace Projector indicates a fast pace is in play for this tough running of the Chelsea Flower for 2yo fillies on grass, and that may have implications for ML favorite #6 Miss Chatelaine, who is expected to be part of it.  She sat a perfect trip in behind the pace before winning off impressively first time out.  We were impressed with the winning efforts of both #9 Path and #11 Ack Naughty as well, and they can take advantage of the expected pace scenario.  #12 Unbridled Sonya also impressed when winning her turf debut while under her own power throughout, and she is likely to be the best price of the contenders.  
Selections:  12-6-11-9
Race 9:  #4 Leroy Jr. has big speed and may appreciate getting back to dirt after posting pair of fast figures on the main track last fall, including 101 for blowout frontrunning win.  #12 Giantinthemoonlite impressed in easy win first time out, but went away for 101 days after that and hasn't been as sharp since returning.  Third back now and will be trying to keep up with Leroy Jr. early.  #9 Sun Storm ran very well first time out (92 TFUS Speed Figure) when in close attendance to a pace that collapsed, and he can do better second off the long layoff after contesting the pace while wide last time.
Selections:  4-12-9-6
Race 10:  Of the experienced runners, we prefer the horses exiting the 6th race from October 9th.  That race was wired by a 3/5 Pletcher favorite, and #13 Hot City Girl had the unenviable task of chasing that horse around the track in what was her career debut.  Can do better with that one behind her, if she gets in.  #8 Miss Matzoball had a much easier trip sitting in behind the lead all the way and was a no-threat 3rd.  #6 Sugar Mags is a first-time starter with plenty of pedigree for turf (she's a half to turf winner John Bailey, and her dam was stakes-placed on the grass).  #3 Aussie Prayer debuts for the underrated David Donk, and his dam was a two-time winner on grass, including a NY Stallion Series race.
Selections:  13-6-3-8

TimeformUS Analysis for October 24

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Friday October 24

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #2 Ballerina Belle has posted a pair of triple-digit TFUS Speed Figures on turf, to go along with four figures in the 90s.  The rest of the field combined has but 2 figures at 90 or above, both of those belonging to the 1-for-29 #3 Rock N Cozy.  Wins have been hard to come by for Ballerina Belle , but she's run well right along this year, including last time, when buried in traffic through the stretch. With the end of turf season on the horizon, she will drop in class.  She's likely to be too much for these horses, but if she stubs her toe, the most likely upsetters appear to be either #6 Dattts Da Boss, who is off the claim by the ever-dangerous Mike Maker, or the lightly raced #9 Verismilitude.  
Selections:  2-6-9-1
Race 2:  #7 Jazz Player landed in a tough MSW first time out vs. a pair of rivals who sped away from the field en route to posting big TFUS Speed Figures of 105 and 104.  Jazz Player did what he could on the chase, but he couldn't go with those horses, and he settled for a 3rd-place finish that is better than may be suggested by the margin of defeat.  Faces another good field here, but, interestingly, projects to be on the early lead.  #4 Guggenheim gave game chase to the Grade 1 sprinter The Big Beast last time and posted a 93 TFUS Speed Figure in clear runner-up effort.  Not sure why we haven't seen him in the 138 days since then, but a similar performance makes him a player.  #2 Private Label ran well enough in dirt debut as a 2yo, and he was in close attendance to a fast pace that collapsed in his turf return.  He is dangerous and may be an interesting price.
Selections:  7-4-2-8
Race 3:  #3 More Front looked quick working a furlong in 10.1 while on his wrong lead prior to bringing $400k back in May, and he debuts for one of the best trainers in the game with first-time starters on grass.  His stablemate, #6 Prima Storm, has valuable experience in the form of a solid third place finish here last month.  #2 Flight to Quality may wind up wanting more ground (his unraced dam is a sister to the Grade 1-winning turf router Meteor Storm), but he is a Speightstown debuting for Pletcher.  #11 Amazon King debuts for Chad Brown, who has had an incredible year with first- time starters on grass, but he gets a lackluster Breeding Rating of 66 for turf sprints.
Selections:  3-6-2-11


Race 4:  Distance may prove key in this 10-furlong turf route, as none of the nine entered for turf has posted a win beyond 1 1/8 miles.  That win belongs to #1A Sublime, who wired a field in his turf debut last month, but he was loose all the way in there and the runners immediately behind him have not flattered that effort in subsequent starts.  At least #8 Make a Decision has a recent solid race going 1 1/2 miles here, and that effort appears legitimate, as he was in close attendance to a fast pace throughout.  Chad Brown pair of #4 Request and #5 Breakeven Analysis are OK, but nothing more than that, and would not be interesting from a wagering perspective at their ML prices.  
Selections:  8-1A-4-5
Race 5:  #6 Harlans Six drops in class for her return to dirt and has found a likely spot in a race where 7 of the 10 lining up against her are first-time starters.  Trainer is in the midst of making a name for himself on this circuit.  #8 Zo Zo has been a bust for a top trainer, but she was caught up contesting a fast pace on the drop last time.  Most interesting firsters are on the outside in the form of #10 Runningtheshow, who gets a strong Breeding Rating of 94 for dirt sprints, and #11 Gethot Stayhot (88 Breeding Rating).
Selections:  6-8-10-11


Race 6:  #5 Ziggy the Great gets one final chance with this needed drop in class, and he has actually run better than it looks in his last two starts.  Projects to be up close in a race favoring frontrunners, and his trainer does well with horses dropping from allowance to claiming (90 rating) and taking blinkers off (100 rating).  #9 Kodiak Kody also takes a big drop in class (Race Ratings for three turf races 97, 95, 94, vs. today's 85) for an underrated trainer, and he figures tough in this field if ready off the layoff.  Have always felt that #7 Sunbio was best as a turf sprinter, and he also figures to fit well at this level.
Selections:  5-9-7-11
Race 7:  #6 Interior Secretary took some money but raced greenly after ducking in badly toward the gap in his debut behind the impressive Pletcher 2yo Ostrolenka.  Figures better for having that experience behind him.  #8 Organic Gemini has a strong Breeding Rating for dirt routes (93), and it's interesting that he has attracted Castellano, who has taken just 5 mounts for Asmussen over the past year, but trainer rating with runners debuting in dirt routes (24) leaves something to be desired.  #7 Navy Blue has a foundation, with 5 races already under his belt, and we like him switching back to dirt, which figures to suit his frontrunning style.  
Selections:  6-8-7-1/1A
Race 8:  #9 Round has hinted at ability from day one, and he finally puts races together after enduring layoffs after each of his first two starts.  Liked his last effort quite a bit. Forced to swing around widest through the turn after getting bumped back to last at the start.  Recent turn-back for #4 Big Guy Ian has yet to pay dividends, but he was in awfully tough in the Amsterdam, and he was wide against an inside-speed-favoring track last time.  #3 Duval has been in improved form for a top trainer, and he has the kind of running style that could play well in this field.  #5 Dyker Beach is tough to take on top at 2-for-22 with ten 2nds, but he's a better sprinter and likes to be in the mix in the stretch.  #10 Moose Vasko is a true wild card as he returns from a long layoff with no dirt form, but he switches to an excellent trainer and has run some fast races over synthetic in Canada.
Selections:  9-4-5-10
Race 9:  Racing office tries again with this group of solid turf runners who are out of conditions and who have been rained off at least twice recently.  If they get to run it this time, we will once again go to #8 War Correspondent, who banished a field at Monmouth in his stateside debut as if stakes quality, and did so with a 102 TFUS Speed Figure.  #1A Abtaal arrived here early in the year with strong European form, and he impressed immediately in circling a field en route to a much-the-best score at Gulfstream.  Tried graded stakes company for his next start and took the worst of it when wide throughout in a race with an inside flow.  #9 Great Attack ran up to his best off the Jacobson claim last time to gun down #10 Tetradrachm, but he may need to do even better if the top 2 show up.  
Selections:  8-1-9-3
Race 10:  #15 Thrown of My Own raced very greenly in Saratoga debut, then showed more speed only to wind up in a pace duel with an impressive winner in off-the-turf return.  We'll take him on top if he gets in.  Otherwise, #6 Chase This Bandit could only chase along the rail in that same off-the-turf race before coming along for second-best at the end, and with a lack of first-time starters from potent debut barns in the field, we'll take him.  #5 Black Tide attracts Castellano for his turf debut, and he will appreciate the turn-back in distance after getting tired going longer last time.
Selections:  15-6-5-1