Tuesday, September 23, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Beautiful Belmont Park on Wednesday September 24
Race 1: #7 Ave's Halo closed into a fast pace to best a couple of these at Saratoga when dropped to this level and has the same pacesetter once again here in the form of #3 Insolvent. Ave's Halo is a short price, but has consistently run the best races and is tough dropping back down. Insolvent is the speed once again, and Pace Projector places her in early control once again, but stamina continues to be her Achilles heel. #2 Fall Into Faith can get to a race that would be competitive here, and she was a winner over this course and distance when catching a fast pace last May. Will be a price, and Insolvent ensures that there will be some pace.
Race 2: #3 Sean and Matt appeared to be a young horse in need of some racing after hitting the track late last year, as he raced very greenly in both starts vs. some better competition. Still earned TFUS Speed Figures of 74 and 73, which are in line with what most of his rivals have been producing, and he is the kind of horse who may have benefited greatly from the time off. #5 Inca Saint was claimed back at the first opportunity by Chad Brown (100 rating off the claim) and is returned immediately to dirt. Missed narrowly to the talented Life in Shambles in main track debut. #8 Flag On the Play gave way after a wide chase in lone start to date, which came sprinting vs. subsequent graded stakes performer C. Zee. Returns as a new gelding with Lasix on for the first time (100 rating for this trainer) and a drop in class.
Race 3: #1 Sweet Sweet Afleet is likely to be a short price after eye-catching debut in which she appeared to be on her way to victory before bolting in the stretch and losing all chance. She's the horse to beat, assuming she is better behaved in start #2.
Would expect better from #6 Moonlight Fantasy this time, as well. She also raced very greenly throughout her debut behind winning stablemate Girlaboutown, who would come right back to win again, and her trainer scores a perfect 100 rating with second-time starters. #5 Warm Heart is off too long of a layoff to realistically expect too much, but she had good speed while contesting the pace on a dead rail when last seen 647 days ago.
Race 4: #9 Miss Lech should be set to step forward in second start back from a layoff after putting in a game stretch run to fall just short of 2nd last time. Has run well without winning at 5.5 and 7 furlongs, so this six-furlong trip may suit her. #2 Galroyale turned all the way back and bested several of these last time, but did so with a perfect run up the inside without traffic. #3 Harp N Halo raced in traffic until the top of the stretch behind Galroyale in that spot, but tried gamely in the stretch and is eligible to improve quickly. #1 Korite was also behind Galroyale on August 29th, but she was always off the pace after getting bumped at the start, and she raced greenly throughout for a trainer who gets a solid 75 rating with second-time starters.
Race 5: #11 As Well had a tough trip from start to finish at Saratoga last time, but has run several races that make her competitive here, and Pace Projector indicates that she may catch the right set-up today. Despite remaining a maiden on this surface to date, #1 Milkyyourway has run some of the best turf races in the field, and she can also benefit from the expected pace scenario. #7 Funky Munky Fever hasn't found much pace to work with lately, but she's proven to be an effective closer in the right circumstances, and done so vs. some solid competition.
Race 6: #9 The Big Deluxe has faced tougher fields than this recently, and he cut a fast pace over this trip last time before weakening late. Also made a solid pace two back in a race that collapsed at the end, but may have an easier time of it in this spot according to Pace Projector.
#6 Sir Bond had little chance to catch a loose-on-the-lead #1A Glickman when dropped down in class last time, but he was trying gamely in the stretch, and his new trainer is in the midst of a good run. #5 Writingonthewall has continued on in good form for this trainer since being claimed back in May, winning a sprint vs. a field rated 103 at Saratoga (today's field is rated at 98), and then finishing a game 2nd going longer last time. Turn-back a positive, and he has enough speed to avoid being badly compromised by moderate fractions.
Race 7: #2 Bio Pro tough to go against at likely short price as he drops out of stakes competition sporting layover TFUS Speed Figures of 111 and 114 for his last two starts. Most recent start around this level on May 24th resulted in convincing win with a figure of 113. Likely has the most to fear from #1A Strong Impact, who was compromised by chasing Za Approval on a slow pace last time. He hasn't quite been up to his top level since being claimed by these connections, but he's a gamer and he handles this distance. #3 Golden Rifle has been on a good run for Chad Brown and he's 2-for-2 over this distance and 3-for-3 at Belmont, but he will need to run faster if the good Bio Pro shows up.
Race 8: #10 Gratitude cut a fast pace in turf debut going longer back in March, but she's improved under rating tactics since then and exits tough-trip chance at Saratoga when forced into wide run from off of an uncompetitive pace. #8 Ballerina Belle was also up against it in that same race on July 18th upstate, and she came back to just miss in a later start up there. Figures to appreciate having a little extra ground to work with. #7 Zindaya got loose on the lead and easily took a field all the way when returned from a layoff last time, but she may play out as the main speed in this field as well, and she is dangerous in such a scenario.
Race 9: #11 Hushhushmushmush emerged an unlucky loser from lone start at this level at Saratoga after getting caught up in a fast duel and paying the price late. Drops back down as the horse to beat. Horse he dueled into defeat in that July 20th attempt at this level, #10 Wake Up and Go, is also here, and he also had a tough trip in the start preceding that one when stuck rating wide behind a slow pace. #12 Chasin Chama couldn't contend when stepped up in class last time, but he has run well both times at this level, and he never had a fair chance when held up in behind horses for a long way on August 11 at Saratoga.