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TimeformUS Analysis For July 4

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Friday, July 4

 
Race 1:  Well-matched field going 1 1/4 miles to start things, with each entrant showing a spotlight figure between 85 and 88 except for #7 Call Her Sunny, who is making only her second career start.  
 
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#3 Queen's Parade finished a game second to repeat winner Cat's Claw while outfinishing a couple of these earlier in the meet; owns field's top late pace rating, which could be all the difference.  #1 High Heel Kitten was narrowly outfinished by Queen's Parade in that May 16th race, but had to give away some early position to get to a ground-saving position from the outside that day, and moves to a much cozier post for this. Call Her Sunny didn't really do much running in her debut, but she can be given another chance, as her pedigree suggests she has license to be OK, and the others fail to inspire.  #6 Antrim Colleen is a contender, and she bested a few of these when outdueled through the stretch here last month, but we prefer the runners from the May 16th race.
 
Selections:  3-1-7-6
 
 
Race 2:  #1A Star Grazing makes her 3yo debut after flashing some promise despite finishing 2013 still a maiden; was way against an inside, speed-favoring track on showcase day when last seen.  Her entrymate, #1 Girlaboutown, will hurt the price, but she's an A. P. Indy out of a multiple Grade 2-winning dam, and her trainer can win with a first-time starter.  #3 Kleptocrat debuted for a tag but ran into odds-on drop-down Loomin' Lori Lou (who wired the field) and put in a strong finish, suggesting that she may be able to handle the climb into MSW company.  #4 Quit Smokin wound up in a fast duel in her return from a long layoff and paid the price, but will likely be fitter for this one. 
 
Selections:  1A-3-1-4
 
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Race 3:  We'll see which half of the Jacobson entry goes, as that may be the key to the race.  Either way, we'll take our chances with #2 Hackleton, who goes first off the claim for Rudy (98 trainer rating, and a winner here right off the take on Sunday) and who projects to be the speed from the rail.  Tough call if the 9yo warrior #1 Immortal Eyes is the one Jacobson decides to send, as he has back races that would bury this field, yet was a complete no-show at Delaware off the private purchase/trainer change, and is immediately offered for $40k.  #5 Request a Puck ran down #4 Doubledown Again in a weak-looking off-the-turfer last month, and #6 Bobby V. ran three good ones at AQU in March, but we don't trust him to hold that form for his new barn, and he was throttled here off the short break. 
 
Selections:   2-1-4-5
 
 
Race 4:  #3 Red Vine is a question mark going this 1 1/4-mile distance, but he's shown up every time so far, and he ran a big race last time after making a premature run to the lead. The once-promising #7 Mills is beginning to run out of chances, but we'll let him have one more, as he was kept unnecessarily wide throughout the running when stretched to this distance last time; new rider has been conscious of saving ground on turf at this meet.  #6 Royal Blessing posted a solid win over 1 3/8 miles at the end of last year, albeit with a perfect trip, and managed to win first time back from a much longer layoff than this last year.  #5 Legendary finished a good 2nd to Draw Two going longer at Keeneland, and was game to land a share of the top prize over this trip here earlier in the meet.  
 
Selections:  3-7-6-5
 
 
Race 5:  Good spot for the promising #6 Distorted Beauty to step up vs. other winners, as she has impressed in both career starts, and figures to have some pace to close into once again, which makes her standout late pace rating of 81 a potent number.  
 
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#2 White Crane may get caught up in the pace from her inside post, but she's tracked effectively before and can be very dangerous here if able to pull the right trip.  #3 Fantastic Eyes may require a drop in order to show her best, but she's run some big ones sprinting on the grass and will appreciate seeing some pace develop.  
 
Selections:  6-2-3-8
 
 
Race 6:  Pace Projector for this race favors the runners on or near the lead, and indicates that #3 Ghareeb should be able to get control from his inside post.  Understandable why Shadwell/Kiaran McLaughlin would be happy to make this headstrong and difficult to handle gelding someone else's problem going forward, but he has some ability when his mind is on running, which it isn't all of the time.  
 
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#4 Engine picked up long overdue maiden win at Parx last time and is immediately entered for the price by a very sharp trainer, whose horses tend to get good and stay good; think he's a better sprinter than router, so this 7.5-furlong distance may work OK for him.  #5 Cosmic Coincidence comes up a little slow on our figures, but has the speed to be a forward factor, and the others are difficult to endorse.  
 
Selections:  3-4-5-2
 
 
Race 7:  #2 Bio Pro disappointed in his NY debut off the private purchase, but he was back on the beam when powering clear of a short field over yielding ground last time; we'll take him over #4 Za Approval, whom we recognize as the horse to beat once again while not being big fans of his, and he was disappointing last time.  #1 Plainview is a dangerous speed on the inside, especially if the courses stay as firm as they have been over the past week or so, so we won't overlook him.  #6 Kharafa is a talented and consistent NY-bred who exits a strong win with a perfect trip in the Kingston; capable, but this is tougher.  
 
Selections:  2-4-1-6
 
 
Race 8:  #6 Apex gets the proper turn-back after a dead-game try going longer last time, and he was better than it looks in winning two back after getting up close to a fast pace early; Pace Projector places him up close early in a race that favors the front runners.  #5 Noble Doss also turns back after parlaying a perfect trip into a much-the-best score off the layoff last month; this is tougher, but it's not easy to trust some of the others.  #1A Reserved Quality caught a fast pace to close into at Monmouth last time but came up short at the end, which is something of the story of his life since being claimed by these connections (1 win, by a nose, and 5 in-the-money finishes from 7 starts);  doesn't figure to have that kind of pace today.  
 
Selections:  6-5-1A-7
 
 
Race 9:  #1 Baffle Me rated in the Intercontinental and paid the price for the tactical error as she wound up getting bounced around in traffic through the stretch while still finishing gamely, and she's something of a standout on our speed figures with her best effort.  #6 Waterway Run drops out of graded stakes company into a spot where she is supposed to be tough; held off #7 Orion Moon last time, and while that one had brief trouble in the stretch, she was clear with time and only second best.  
 
Selections:  1-6-7-8
 
 
Race 10:  #1 Assured Victory sprinted effectively on grass in a pair of tries last summer vs. better horses, and earned a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for one of those efforts, a number that would make him very tough in here should he be able to run something like it today; will be a price.  
 
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#6 Decisive Move faced much tougher at Fair Grounds when last seen, but this is the right kind of spot for him, and he is the horse to beat.  #8 River Boss has never sprinted on turf, which is a strong negative, but came through with a good effort when left in off-the-turf event over this trip last time, despite not being able to work out the best trip in the world. 
 
Selections:  1-6-8-2
 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for July 3

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

 

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for racing on Thursday, July 3
 
Race 1:  On paper, there is plenty of potential for a strongly contested pace among any or all of the following: #1A Sweet Sway, #3 Here's Zealicious, and #6 Pearls for Girls.  We'll see if Sweet Sway indeed wheels back just six days after being claimed, and whether she is as sharp early as she was last time.  If she's not, or if her connections elect not to run, that may leave Here's Zealicious in the driver's seat.  Assuming the field stays intact, we'll give #2 Your Time Is Up a chance to land the right trip, which may be enough to help her get back to the solid form she was in earlier this year; last was a step in the right direction after dueling three-wide, a trip she has almost zero chance of pulling in this spot.  #5 Spinit to Winit is also hoping for that contested pace scenario as she turns back in distance.  
 
Selections:  2-5-3-6
 
 
Race 2:  #5 Navy Blue is by new sire Midshipman, who was a multiple Grade 1 winning two-year-old a few years ago, and is a half to the stakes-winning NY-bred sprinter Saltamontes, a winner of 5 races and over $200k in her career (Navy Blue's pedigree rating is a strong 97 for dirt sprints); trainer can pop with a first-time starter.  
 
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#4 Unauthorized figures ready for dangerous first-out connections of Klaravich/Violette, who have teamed up to win with many a 2yo first-time starter over the years.  #3 Just Economics has valuable experience, and his debut at Delaware was not bad after getting outrun early and forced to race wide throughout.  
 
Selections:  5-4-3-7
 
 
Race 3:  Some very good NY-bred mares entered for the $100k Dancin Renee, but it's difficult to work up much enthusiasm for standing against heavy ML favorite #1 La Verdad.  La Verdad was all heart to prevail going longer than she prefers last time, but gets the right turn-back here, is the fastest horse, and projects to be on a clear early lead.  We're happy to see #3 Willet back for a 6yo campaign, and will look forward to her landing in a race with a more favorable scenario going forward, perhaps at Saratoga.
 
Selections:  1-3-5-2
 
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Race 4:  More two-year-olds on tap here, and #2 Presto Magic has the experience edge on this group; figures to improve off that run, as she raced greenly in there while on the chase, but stayed gamely to the finish, and trainer Kelly Breen pulls a very strong 93 rating with second-time starters.
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#3 Cavorting is the most interesting newcomer, being out of Promenade Girl, who was a Grade 2 winner and was multiple Grade 1-placed in her career and earned over $678k, though she was at her best over a route of ground.  
 
Selections:  2-3-4-5
 
 
Race 5:  #10 Secret Ops switched to grass last time and wound up running off on a too-fast pace before tiring through the stretch; has to get an additional furlong today, but gets a positive rider change, and may settle more effectively with blinkers removed.  #9 Pilatus may be the horse to beat, but he holds no edge on speed figures, and couldn't take advantage of a perfect trip into a fast pace last time.  #2 Mischieviously may do better as he drops down for the first time, and he didn't get the best ride in the world in a race for amateur jockeys at Pimlico in his turf debut.
 
Selections:  10-9-2-4
 
 
Race 6:  We'll see what ultimately happens with #6 Tiznowforamerica, but we think he has more ability than is displayed on the bare form, and this appears to be a spot where he can begin to finally put everything together.  Tiznowforamerica has plenty of early speed, and Pace Projector for this race indicates that this may be the first race that he can control up front since last September, when he took a field of maidens wire to wire at Saratoga.
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We also think that getting that race in off the layoff may have benefited him, as that was a race that not only contained another speed for him to deal with, but had the talented Rock Fall (who appears to be on his way into stakes company) sitting a perfect tracking trip before blowing by when ready in the stretch.  This field may not be quite as tough, or at least there is no rival at the level of Rock Fall to deal with, and we think Tiznowforamerica may be set to rebound.
 
Selections:  6-3-2-7
 
 
Race 7:  Only seven for this turf sprint, and there is not much separating the three favorites, who are drawn in the three inside posts.  #1 Pep the Champ took advantage of a perfect pace set-up to break his maiden on the drop last time; #2 Distorted Dream, a disappointment on dirt earlier in his career, has improved since switched to grass and finished gamely after a wire-to-wire winner at Monmouth last time; and #3 Official made an OK turf debut going longer last month.  We have nothing to latch onto with those three as far as separating them goes but think #7 Lane Allen could be an interesting alternative.  Lane Allen's only turf start came in that same fast-paced race that produced Peb the Champ's maiden win, but Lane Allen didn't have near the perfect trip that that one had, and can be given another chance. 
 
Selections:  7-2-1-3
 
 
Race 8:  Tough calls on the two ML favorites, as #6 Ah Gaga is making her first start since mid-January, and #4 Discreet Force exits a dismal effort in her first start of the year and immediately drops in class.  The alternatives really aren't there, so we are going to rely on at least one of them to show up with a representative effort.  We could back-up with #2 Chocolat City, although she was pretty disappointing in her NY debut last month, and the top 2 are better than anything she faced in that spot.
 
Selections:  6-4-2-3
 
 
Race 9:  5 of the 8 for this turf route exit the 6th race on June 1st, and while #2 Strike Accord came away with the best placing that day, others had more-difficult trips, and, while we like her and have tried her often in the past, she just isn't the kind of horse that we are ever interested in taking at any short price.  This appears to be a situation where #4 Irish Sweepstakes can control the action up front, as Pace Projector places her in clear control early on, and she ran well enough in her turf debut for us to give her one more chance.  #6 Caribean Beat and #8 Alternative Meds were unable to impact that June 1st race from off the pace, but they were off of layoffs and had trouble exiting the chute that day; both are eligible to do much better. 
 
Selections:  4-8-6-7
 
 
Race 10:  #12 Illapa may be up against it from post 12 off the layoff, but we liked what we saw from her as a 2yo, and she figures to be too interesting a price to ignore.  #4 Skipping has dangerous speed, and figures to improve in her turf debut, being a half to Meribel, who won 6 times on grass in her career while making over $520k.  #11 Miadora is the "other"Clement, and she may also appreciate this surface switch as her dam is a sister to turf stakes winners Followmyfootsteps and Corporate Jungle.  
 
Selections:  12-4-11-1
 
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, July 3, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, July 3, 2014

Race 4, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, 2:53 p.m.

CAVORTING (bay filly, Bernardini—Promenade Girl, by Carson City) looks to become the second winner from three starters out of her dam, who won five stakes, including the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher. Promenade Girl, who also finished third in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap and Grade 1 Spinster, is a half-sister to restricted stakes winner Dattts Awesome.

Owner: Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $360,000 Keeneland November weanling

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Race 3, All 2-year-olds, five furlongs, 2:22 p.m.

DINNER TIME (chestnut colt, Montbrook—Potluck Dinner, by Pentelicus) is a half-brother to Gourmet Dinner, who has won four stakes, including the 2010 Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot. Another half-sibling, the filly Gaston A., won a minor stakes at Calder Race Course. Their dam, who was unplaced in her lone start, has produced six winners from seven starters and is a half-sister to five-time stakes-winning sprinter Sea of Green and to Lady Gin, who captured three stakes, including the Bassinet at River Downs as a juvenile.

Owner: Our Sugar Bear Stable

Trainer: Bruce Brown

Jockey: Dylan Davis

Sales history: $75,000 OBS March 2-year-old (two furlongs in 22 2/5 seconds, video)

 

CAT FIFTYFIVE (gray/roan colt, Tale of the Cat—Chemise, by Secret Hello) is a half-brother to three stakes winners in Maryland: Coquettish, who won the restricted Maryland Juvenile Filly Championship; Miss Lombardi, victorious in the restricted Maryland Million Ladies; and Dress Gray, who took the open Smart Halo. Nine of Chemise’s 10 starters have won.

Owner: Matthew Schera

Trainer: James Lawrence II

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Sales history: $185,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling

 

MACHINATION (bay colt, Yes It’s True—Sala de Oro, by Expelled) is a full-brother to Truth and Justice, who as a 2-year-old filly won the My Trusty Cat at Delta Downs, Sorority at Monmouth Park, and Presque Isle Debutante. A half-sister, Mr. Hall’s Opus, was second in last year’s Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks. Their dam won the Barbara Shinpoch at Emerald Downs as a juvenile and is a half-sister to multiple stakes winners Hall of Gold and No Turbulence. All eight of Sala de Oro’s starters have won.

Owner: George & Lori Hall

Trainer: Kelly Breen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

 

I SPENT IT (bay colt, Super Saver—Rateeba, by Sky Mesa) is the third foal out of his dam, whose lone previous starter was winless in five starts. Rateeba won a single race, a maiden event at Evangeline Downs, in 10 starts and is a half-sister to Cocky, who was second in the Grade 2 San Rafael; Eishin Le Mars, who placed in a pair of stakes in Japan; and Pert Lady, who produced multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Zavata.

Owner: Alex & JoAnn Lieblong

Trainer: Anthony Dutrow

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $65,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling; $600,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-old (one furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, video)

 

BATTLE RED (chestnut colt, Kitten’s Joy—Talking Treasure, by Catienus) is out of a dam who won five stakes for New York-breds: the Bouwerie, the Lady d’Accord, the New York Oaks, the Saratoga Dew, and the Fleet Indian. She has no winners from two previous starters.

Owner: Jake Ballis & Rashard Lewis

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $125,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling; $270,000 Keeneland April 2-year-old (one furlong in 9 3/5 seconds, video)