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Big Apple Babies

 

Big Apple Babies is a series that takes a glance at the pedigrees and sales histories of select 2-year-olds who are making their debuts in maiden special weight races at Aqueduct Racetrack, Belmont Park, or Saratoga Race Course. Many of history’s best horses have commenced their careers in New York, and Big Apple Babies will help fans find the stars of tomorrow as they head postward for the first time.

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 12, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 12, 2014

Race 1, All 2-year-olds, one mile, dirt, 1:05 p.m.

TALE OF FANCY (bay colt, Tale of Ekati—Fancy Clancy, by Rahy) is out of a three-time winning half-sister to Joyeaux Danseur, who took the Grade 1 Early Times Turf Classic; and Doubles Partner, victorious in the Grade 3 Anne Arundel. Fancy Clancy, who won exclusively on the turf, has produced eight winners from nine starters, among them Fancy Fusaichi, winner of the listed Iowa Distaff Breeders’ Cup; Fancy Point, who won the P.G. Johnson and was third in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo on the turf as a juvenile; El Commodore, who placed in four graded stakes on the grass; Powerchord, second in a minor stakes at Calder Race Course; and Fancy Ribbons, third earlier this year in a restricted stakes at Woodbine.

Owner: Charles Fipke

Trainer: Barclay Tagg

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Race 3, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, dirt, 2:07 p.m.

CARIOCA GIRL (dark bay or brown filly, Malibu Moon—Double Trouble, by Wild Event) is out of a mare who won the Grade 1 Santa Maria Handicap on a synthetic surface and a Group 2 race on the turf in Brazil. Double Trouble has produced two other foals, and both are unraced.

Owner: Patricia Bozano

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Javier Castellano

 

PARIS BIKINI (bay filly, Bernardini—Lacadena, by Fasliyev) is out of a mare who was second in a listed stakes on Woodbine’s synthetic surface. She has produced two starters, with her lone winner, America, being Grade 1 placed after finishing a distant third in this year’s Mother Goose.

Owner: Bobby Flay

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

 

PURPOSE OF LIFE (bay filly, Malibu Moon—Chapena, by Fusaichi Pegasus) is out of an unraced half-sister to Chaposa Springs, winner of the Grade 1 Test and Grade 1 Ballerina; and Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap victor You and I. Chapena has produced two winners from four starters, including who is Camille, who captured a restricted stakes over the Ocala Training Center’s synthetic surface. Purpose of Life’s second dam, La Chaposa, was named Champion Sprinter in Peru, where she won a pair of Group 1 races.

Owner: Sagamore Farm

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Sales history: $220,000 Fasig-Tipton Timonium 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 3/5 seconds, video)

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

TimeformUS Analysis for September 11

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont on Thursday September 11th

Race 1:  #2 Noble Doss returned from a layoff at this level over this track back in June and buried a field with a TFUS Speed Figure of 92.  Drops back down after two starts vs. tougher upstate, and he has enough speed to be close in a race projected to favor the frontrunners.  #5 Magnificent Moon has come back better than ever off a long layoff as a 6yo, winning 3 of his 4 starts around one turn on dirt.  Has never run a figure fast enough to contend with the best race of a couple of these, but he's first off the claim for a very dangerous trainer.  #1 Most Happy Fella hasn't been at his best recently and drops in class once again, looking for the right level.  Has back races that would be plenty good enough.
 
Selections:  2-5-1-3
 
Race 2:  #8 Beauty Surprise stumbled at the start, then was bumped and carried out wide into the first turn against a tougher field last time.  Has more speed than that when away cleanly and can use it to positive effect in this field.  #3 Shaikha is clearly fast enough to win this, but she's been happy to settle for minor awards so far, and we don't mind trying to beat her once again.   #6 Reckless Move gave way to finish behind a couple of these last time, but she was just starting back from a layoff.  Can do better with that one behind her, and Pace Projector places her on the early lead.
 
Selections:  8-3-6-2
 
Race 3:  #2 Shore Runner has put up TFUS Speed Figures of 99 and 101 for his last two starts.  If he runs that well again, this field is unlikely to be able to cope, and he has enough speed to keep up with the pace. 
 
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#4 Slamarama has the back races to compete with Shore Runner, and he has speed, but he has proven incapable of running a race like that recently.  Instead, we'll use a little of #7 Joking, who comes back to grass and restricted claiming company for his second start back off the layoff.  He's been a solid and consistent dirt sprinter throughout his career, but he has run well enough on turf in the past.
 
Selections:  2-7-4-6
 
Race 4: ML favorite #10 Spa City Treasure was compromised by a slow pace and couldn't catch wire-to-wire winner Eternal Bull at Saratoga, and he feels like the horse to beat, though we wonder about 7 furlongs for him.  As an alternative to him, we'll try #4 Bad to the Roan.  We've been wrong about him since his debut, when he was well-bet and unlucky to be racing against the grain of an intensely inside-speed-favoring track, but he's been given a little time to regroup, and he has a strong Breeding Rating of 89 for turf sprints.  
 
Selections:  4-10-8-11
 
Race 5:  #1 Frame projects for a clear early lead in a race favoring horses on or near the lead, and he is entered right back at the right level after posting a solid win on the drop. 
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#6 Perfect Disco put up an 88 TFUS Speed Figure when dropped in class for his new trainer, and a figure like that will make him competitive with Frame.  Concern is that he hasn't been seen in the 116 days since that race, and he was listed as a vet scratch back on June 6th.  #2 Herd Mentality gets a pass for the recent turf try, but he was a no-excuse 2nd after getting loose on the lead at this level two back, and Frame is faster than he is early. 
 
Selections:  1-2-6-5
 
Race 6:  #4 Midnight Citra made a promising debut over this surface back in June before trying turf to no avail upstate.  78 TFUS Speed Figure she earned for that debut is tops in the field on dirt, and we like her chances switching back to this surface.  #9 Kinsley was outpaced early on in strong MSW sprint upstate, but she raced on through the stretch and was still going after the wire.  Eligible to improve rapidly for Pletcher, and is likely to bring more speed this time.  #1 Cover Up was away last and outrun early when no threat behind a pair of promising fillies in her debut, and she is also eligible to be better for the experience. 
 
Selections:  4-9-1-7
 
Race 7:  #6 Charlie's Picnic appeared to appreciate the cut-back to this distance two back as he circled the field and finished gamely to prevail.  Cutting back again and drops in class.  #1A Battled is a wildcard, having never run on turf, but he's the fastest horse in the race and is dropping in class off the trainer change.  #5 Lunar Tales dropped in class at Saratoga and was unable to impact after getting bumped at the break.  New trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with turf sprinters. 
 
Selections:  6-1A-5-4
 
Race 8:  #5 Surfing U S A and #6 Mosler returned from layoffs and finished last and next-to-last in a loaded-looking allowance race at Saratoga on August 16, but we thought we could make excuses for both of them.  Surfing U S A stumbled badly at the start and lost his best chance.
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Mosler looked something less than fully cranked pre-race, and then was sent up to contest the pace before giving way in the stretch.  We're expected both to show more this time, and since we liked Mosler quite a bit as a 2yo, we'll give him preference.  #4 Cool Samurai is also interesting as he makes what is essentially his 3yo debut after showing much promise in his first two career starts, one of which came over this track and trip.
 
Selections:  6-4-5-8
 
Race 9:  #1 Maura's Pass was caught wide throughout turf debut on opening day of the Saratoga meet, and she was never put in position to run when defeated as the favorite in her return up there.  Can be given one more chance. #11 Bella Kateri is the clear horse to beat, and she had a troubled trip of her own last time when she may have been best.  #2 Manner of Speaking is eligible to improve as she makes her 3yo debut with a trainer change and lasix on for the first time.  
 
Selections:  1-11-2-9
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, September 11, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, September 11, 2014

Race 6, 2-year-old fillies, one mile, dirt, 3:41 p.m.

CARA MARIE (gray/roan filly, Unbridled’s Song—Miss Kilroy, by A.P. Indy) is a half-sister to Abby’s Angel, who won a listed stakes at Hawthorne and was second in the Grade 3 Gardenia; and Miss Jean Brodie, second in the Group 1 Irish Oaks on the grass. Three of four starters out of their unraced dam have won. Cara Marie’s second dam, Miss Caerleona, was a turf runner who won the Grade 3 Cardinal Handicap and produced Grade 2 Davona Dale winner Miss Coronado and Karen’s Caper, who took a pair of grade 3 grass races and was grade 1/group 1 placed. Cara Marie was the second most expensive of 50 yearlings by Unbridled’s Song to sell at auction in 2013.

Owner: Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer: Anthony Dutrow

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $90,000 Keeneland November weanling; $460,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

TimeformUS Analysis for September 10

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the races at Belmont on Wednesday September 10th

Race 1:  Opener requires a wait for scratches as Jacobson has entered the pair of #1 Italian Rules and #1A Glickman, both with Cornelio Velasquez named, so only one will start.  Both have speed, and with Pace Projector favoring that running style either one will be tough in here.  Of the two we'd prefer Italian Rules, despite the class-drop, as we thought he was back in good form at Saratoga.  The others are all contenders with their best race.  Of those we are most interested in #4 Mulheb, who gets the right turn back in distance and has enough speed to stay close.

Selections:  1-4-2-5
 
 
Race 2:  Tough second race handicaps wide open and may come down to trips.  For purposes of the early multi-race wager's, both #3 Dividend and #6 Are We Not Men will be included.  They exit the same race from August 18 upstate, and both had trouble at different points.  #7 Mambo At the Gym is logical off the class drop, though it's one that he needs. #1 In Speight Ofitall is running out of chances for a low percentage barn, but he's at his best on grass and is a good fit in this field.  New face #2 Lemon Maker makes his turf debut, but he sports a solid Breeding Rating of 84 for turf routes and will be making his first start for a tag.
 
Selections:  1-6-3-7
 
 
Race 3:  #4 La Madrina has run well in all three career starts; she has the pedigree, the connections, and all of the upside in this short field.  Endured a long delay prior to her last race and then closed gamely once coming clear in the stretch.  #2 Evening Show is the main threat to her.  She is making her third start back from a layoff and has the fastest races to get back to.  #5 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid has appeared to tail off in her last three starts, but she's a threat if she can re-find her prior form for her sharp trainer. 
 
Selections:  4-2-5-1
 
 
Race 4:  Field of eight  fillies and mares entered to travel 1 1/16 miles over the Widener turf course, and half of them are exiting the finale from August 15 at Saratoga.  Despite none of them ever having a chance to catch the front-running winner that day, we were not so impressed with this quartet, although we could give the lightly raced #4 Barbara's Smile another chance. #2 Eddy's Time faced a much tougher group for the level last time (Race Rating of 81, as compared to today's 76) and Pace Projector places her on the early lead in this matchup.  
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#7 Casey Roo exits that same highly-rated race, and she also faced tougher in her prior start upstate.  Her trainer has quietly has a very solid year.
 
Selections:  2-7-4-6
 
 
Race 5:  #5 Trail Walker was in over her head off the layoff at Saratoga, but she had run two good ones off the claim prior to that, including a 98 TFUS Speed Figure effort when second to subsequent graded-stakes performer Merry Meadow.  #2 Mama Zee has speed and the rail and is going to be tough in here if holding her good recent form off the claim. Jacobson has another entry here, and both #1 Bobby Jo and #1A Brigetta are in form right now. They're a formidable pair, but we're looking to go against them in here, especially Bobby Jo, who parlayed back-to-back perfect trips into wins at Saratoga.
 
Selections:  5-2-1A-4
 
 
Race 6:  #4 Boldlee raced very greenly throughout debut in a strong-looking field but still managed 3rd at a big price.  Can benefit from that experience and is unlikely to take too much money for low-profile connections. #5 One Eyed Ray exits that same strong race, and he faded readily after briefly contesting the pace. Eligible to turn it around quickly. Most interesting firster is #1 Tiz a Chance, who doesn't have much turf pedigree, but is by a strong debut sire and starts for a top trainer.
 
Selections:  4-5-1-9
 
 
Race 7:  Projected fast pace could be the undoing of #5 Groomedforvictory, but this is the right cut back in distance for him, and he is confidently raised in class off the claim by a sharp trainer (98 rating first off the claim).  He's won each of his last three starts over this trip.  #7 Big Town didn't handle the Saratoga slop and was finished early in effort that was too bad to be true.  Prior form in Kentucky makes him competitive, and he's first off the claim for Rudy (98 rating).  #8 Herbal Prospector has been in form over a long run of races, and he enters here directly off of a convincing win in the slop at this level upstate. 
 
Selections:  5-7-8-4
 
 
Race 8:  #2 Groupthink projects for a controlling position in a race that is expected to favor runners toward the front.  He's been a major disappointment to this point and has proven expensive to follow, but this may simply be the right spot.
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Main threat to him figures to be #3 Here Comes Tommy, who is turning back to a better distance.  Each of his four starts prior to muddy, sealed track effort last time is faster than any race Groupthink has ever run, but he has character flaws of his own at 1-for-21 lifetime.  #4 Broadway Bay has the upside and has run well enough in both career starts to project enough improvement to be a threat in here.
 
Selections:  2-3-4-6
 
 
Race 9:  #8 My Sweet Ellierose was bumped out to the back of the field and then had to go wide while chasing a sharp winner over 4-furlongs in debut.  Trainer is pulling strong ratings with the MSW-to-MCL drop (96) and with second time starters (83).  #7 Captain Munnings was outpaced early and never factored in MSW debut,  Can do better for the experience and likely fits better with the class drop.  Of the firsters, #3 Take Issue shows up with a series of 5-furlong breezes for a top trainer, and #9 Giant Hearted Lee attracts Castellano and goes for a trainer who sent a pair of good-looking two-year-old winners for a tag at Saratoga, and had two more run well enough to hit the board, all of them at good prices.
 
Selections:  8-7-9-3 
 
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