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TimeformUS Analysis for September 5

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Opening Day at Belmont Park's Fall Championship Meet

Race 1:  #3 Upward hung up a big 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure in an impressive score over this track back on May 25, which was also the last time he went turf-to-dirt.  #2 Attractive Ride posted back-to-back blowouts when back around one-turn off a short break, including 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure blowout at Saratoga last out.  We'll see if he can keep it up off the claim, but he lands in a race that is projected to favor speed types once again. #1 Italian Rules drops for Jacobson and will need to get back to top form if the top two bring their best stuff.

Selections:  3-2-1-5
 
Race 2:  #4 Percy's Ambition drops again for second start off the layoff, and he has speed.  Trainer has done some of his best work recently with older claimers on dirt (93 rating).  #2 Deimos was on the outside against a strong rail and speed- favoring track in lone dirt start, which came as a 2yo.  He has improved, and will make his first start on the main track since then for a tag.  #3 Robert Noble hasn't had much to offer through first two starts but this is a big class drop and he ran into a blowout winner in lone dirt start.
 
Selections:  4-2-3-1
 
Race 3:  #4 Tout had to steady while in tight early, then rallied through the stretch behind a front-running Pletcher favorite off the layoff at Monmouth.  Has room to go forward, and doesn't have much to find vs. this field.  #2 Point Hope was no match for Classic Sense over a sloppy track going longer at Saratoga, but that horse came back to run another good one while against the grain of an inside, speed-favoring track up there.  New trainer does excellent work off the claim.  #7 March Too has to stretch out, and will likely have to do better than his debut, but he's eligible to do so, and he can be on the early lead in this spot.
 
Selections:  4-2-7-8
 
Race 4:  #10 Dramatize has failed from on the pace in last two starts, but we think she may be better from off of it, and with a fast pace projected for this race, she may have no choice.  Hard to view trainer change as anything more than a lateral move, but the change of scenery may do her some good, and new barn is hot right now.  #7 Thundering Gale stretches out while dropping in price for second start off the claim and is clearly the horse to beat.  #8 Flirtatious Spring takes needed drop in for a tag for the first time.  Has run some of the best figures in the field and is supposed to be tougher in a spot like this.  
 
Selections:  10-7-8-11
 
Race 5:  #1 Glickman was hooked into a fast duel and tired late when second off the long layoff upstate.  Should be more comfortable early in this spot, which Pace Projector indicates will favor runners with speed.  #9 Sir Bond doesn't have much early speed but gets a class drop for the first time, and that alone should make him tough.  Still think #4 Indy Sea is a better turf horse, but he handles dirt well and new trainer gets 98 rating off the claim and perfect 100 rating with claimers down in class.
 
Selections:  1-9-4-5
 
Race 6:  Pace Projector favors the leaders in this 11-furlong turf route, which kicks off the Late Pick 4, and places the two favorites on the ML, #9 Silky and #3 Cloture, at the back of the pack.  Silky finished gamely after being bumped in the stretch last time, and she picks up Castellano for the first time today.  Cloture had little chance to impact the impressive Crown Queen in her most recent start, and she owns the top Late Pace Rating in the field (101), which may give her a better chance of overcoming the pace scenario.
 
Selections:  3-9-4-8

 

Race 7:  #4 Greywalls had scheduled turf debut rained off at Saratoga but stayed in and picked up some experience.  She has an 88 pedigree rating for turf sprints, and her trainer gets an 88 of his own with second-time starters.

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#10 Wall Street Lady took money for her dirt debut and stopped badly after chasing the pace early.  Switches to turf for her second start, a switch that may work for her because she's a half to a 5-time winner on grass.  #3 Misbehavin Miss debuts for Clement, and her dam was a fleet turf sprinter (7 of her 8 career wins, including 5 stakes, came in turf sprints) who earned over $680k in her career. 

Selections:  4-10-3-6
 
Race 8:  Short but competitive field for the first running of the $100k Left Bank.  We have always preferred #5 Pants On Fire as a one-turn-miler type and will lean on him in the Pick 4 as he cuts back in distance to make his third start off the layoff.  Last three one-turn miles have resulted in two wins and a close-up 3rd-place finish, with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 116, 115, 113.  #1 Alpha and #2 Golden Ticket hit the wire together in the 2012 Travers, and either is capable of winning this with something approaching a top effort, but we'll take our chances against them.
 
Selections:  5-2-1-6
 
Race 9:  #7 Whyalwaysme tried a couple of tough spots upstate off the claim. 

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Repeat of 72 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned while contesting a fast pace in lone start at this level will make him tough to beat.  New face #2 Jacob's Here is eligible to handle the switch to grass, and he'll appreciate dropping back down in class.  Dam was a multiple stakes winner on dirt, but she ran to form throughout her career on grass while keeping good company. 

Selections:  7-2-1-4

 

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Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 5, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 5, 2014

Race 7, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, turf, 4:13 p.m.

TAP IT OUT (chestnut filly, Tapit—Great Intentions, by Cat Thief) is out of a sprinter who won the Grade 2 First Flight Handicap and Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Handicap. Great Intentions, who was unplaced in one start on the turf, is a half-sister to Sea Road, who won minor stakes on the turf at Gulfstream Park and Saratoga Race Course and was third in the Grade 3 Royal North on the grass. As a broodmare, Great Intentions has produced three starters, including two turf winners.

Owner: Richard Santulli

Trainer: Alan Goldberg

Jockey: Edgar Prado

 

CONSUMER CREDIT (dark bay or brown filly, More Than Ready—Sally Bowles, by London News) is out of a mare who in South Africa won the Group 2 KZN Fillies Guineas and was second in the Group 1 Allan Robertson Fillies Championship. Sally Bowles has produced one winner – London Citizen, who is stakes placed in Sweden – from two starters.

Owner: Klaravich Stables & William H. Lawrence

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $185,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

MISS BEHAVIN MISS (bay filly, Mineshaft—Unbridled Sidney, by Unbridled’s Song) is out of a turf runner who won four stakes at Churchill Downs and one stakes apiece at Calder Race Course and Pimlico. Unbridled Sidney also was third in the Grade 3 Royal North and is a half-sister to Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Caller One and Grade 2 A Phenomenon victor Prospect Bay. She has produced three starters, with her lone winner having picked up a maiden score on the turf.

Owner: Douglas Devenport

Trainer: Christophe Clement

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

 

ALL IN FUN (chestnut filly, Tapit—Devils Humor, by Distorted Humor) is the first foal out of her dam, a two-time winner on the dirt who is a daughter of Grade 1 Ashland and Grade 1 Mother Goose heroine Fleet Renee. Devils Humor is a half-sister to Stormy Renee, the dam of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprinter winner Hightail.

Owner: Stuart Janney III

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sales history: $200,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

GINGER RUSH (chestnut filly, Speightstown—Victorina, by Delaware Township) is slated to become the first starter out of her dam, who won 10 black-type stakes, including the Grade 3 Azalea. On the turf, Victorina was third in the Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy Handicap and second in a minor stakes at Santa Rosa. Ginger Rush’s second dam is a half-sister C. S. Silk, who won the Grade 1 Just a Game on the grass, and Remember Sheik, victorious in the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby on the dirt.

Owner: Bach Stables

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $90,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

LANA’S FORTUNE (dark bay or brown filly, Harlan’s Holiday—My Pal Lana, by Kris S.) is out of a mare who won the River Memories and Flaming Page, a pair of listed stakes on the turf at Woodbine. My Pal Lana has produced two turf winners from three starters. Lana’s Fortune’s second dam, Palana, was a listed stakes winner in England.

Owner: Fortune Farm

Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart

Jockey: Manuel Franco

Sales history: $40,000 Keeneland November weanling; $70,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.

 

TimeformUS Analysis for July 13

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Sunday, July 13

Race 1:  #2 Pitched has found the right spot as she switches back to dirt to face maiden claiming company on that surface for the first time. Last two main track efforts not as bad as they look as both February 17 and March 16 were days when the AQU track was featuring a strong rail, and Pitched was on the outside both times. Still, the 76 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned for that last dirt start is tops in the field by a clear margin.  #3 Tordita isn't as fast as Pitched, was disappointing as the favorite last time, and is a question mark going this far.  #4 Quality Legend is something of a wildcard, as she has never raced this cheap on dirt and has yet to run over a fast track; the most likely upsetter.
 
Selections:  2-4-5-3
 
 
Race 2:  #7 The Lady's Cruisen raced a bit greenly, then finished gamely to get 3rd behind favored Royal Jest and #1 Jennys Creek in her debut here three weeks ago; has the upside and figures to come forward for the experience for a trainer whose runners tend to improve from start #1 to start #2 (94 trainer rating).  
 
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Jennys Creek tries again in career start #17 after being only second-best last time; has attained a level that makes her competitive in here, but obviously doesn't have the upside that The Lady's Cruisen does.  #5 Baby B has never had enough while showing speed on turf vs. MSW company, but those races were all going longer, and she may appreciate getting to sprint in her second start off the claim.  
 
Selections:  7-1-5-4
 
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Race 3:  #2 Bustin It steps into this $125k stakes race as a maiden, but we are pretty sure he's seeing a huge class drop after getting stuck chasing impressive Pletcher first-timer Nonna's Boy in his debut; still gave game chase to that talented rival all the way and is unlikely to be meeting anything near his equal in this spot.  #3 Elusive New Yorker brought $220k as a yearling and as a half to 11-time stakes-winning millionaire Naught New Yorker has license to be a runner.  #5 International Star is the lone entrant in the field with a prior win, but that came over turf after a perfect trip, and he will probably have to do better than that if Bustin It runs back to his debut.
 
Selections:  2-3-5-6
 
 
Race 4:  #12 Claiming Victory feels like the horse to beat as she takes a substantial class drop at the end of the meet, and it's not as if she has been off form; logical horse in a logical spot.  We'll take a shot against her with #2 Lotsa Noodles, who also gets a class drop here while making her third start off the layoff for a trainer who has very quietly had a strong meet here; has run figures on turf in the past that make her very competitive here, and she'll be a price.  #9 Implied is another one dropping down after trailing a field home at Delaware last time; posted big upset over allowance-type Frege at GP two starts back, and another effort like that would do in this spot. 
 
Selections:  2-12-9-8
 
 
Race 5:  #5 High Inflation won her first two starts off the trainer change to Gary Gullo, and she received a confusing ride last time, with the 10-lb. bug never taking her clear through the stretch, and ultimately lacked room to run late; gets a change for this and projects to be in a good spot tracking a couple of longshots from the outside.  #8 Rettalfa's gate woes continue, as she was away slowly once again last time and left with too much to do late when finishing a couple of lengths behind High Inflation; the horse to beat, if she can get away at least halfway decently.  #3 Valerie Victoria makes what is essentially her 3yo debut here, and doesn't have much improving to do on her juvenile form to contend; has dangerous speed, though her new trainer isn't known to fire off the claim (46 trainer rating).  
 
Selections:  5-8-3-6
 
 
Race 6:  #7 Mr. Masterpiece has quietly been in good form all year for a low-profile barn, and he had plenty of trouble when blocked through the upper stretch two back, when behind #6 Special Selection, who got a perfect trip; shuffled back last time behind a wire-to-wire winner, we can give him one more chance.  Special Selection has been outrunning his odds in turf sprints for over a year now, and did so again when parlaying that perfect trip into a close 2nd two starts back; problem is, he's likely to be one of the favorites in this spot. Still, he's logical with this class drop.  #5 Indy Sea got back to one of his good ones two back, and confirmed that he is back in form with a solid run over the main track last time.  This is a good spot for the speedy #3 Slamarama to show some life, assuming he still has any, as he projects to be the clear speed in this field.
 
Selections:  7-5-3-6
 
 
Race 7:  #8 Bad Hombre ran several fast races as a 3yo before stepping up to stakes company and stretching out around two-turns; think these one-turn races suit him better, and he did not run poorly in a tough spot first time back this year.  #6 This Hard Land, one of our favorites, is capable of a race that is very competitive with the two favorites in this race. He just doesn't always show up with his best stuff; we have enough questions about the main players in here, though, that we can use him. It was only three starts back that he was able to parlay the right trip into a huge upset over a field of similar quality.  #1 Readthebyline would be almost unbeatable were he to show up and run as well today as he did when last seen, but he sped away over a speed-favoring track that day, hasn't been seen since being claimed out of that race, and faces a tougher crew here.  
 
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#5 Might Ian has improved greatly since being taken by his current connections, and his last two speed figures make him tough in here, but he's another one who hasn't been seen since a game runner-up finish here the first weekend of the meet.  
 
Selections:  8-6-5-1
 
 
Race 8:  #2 Lubash finally gets away from Kharafa and King Kreesa, who are largely responsible for his recent 1-for-8 run, and is clearly the horse to beat as the favorite.  We won't go against him, but it's not as if he can just mail it in against this field.  #1 Compliance Officer has lost a step or two but showed last time that he can still produce under the right circumstances; would prefer a little cut in the ground.  #5 Notacatbutallama has yet to improve upon his 3yo form so far this year, and blew a perfect-trip chance last time when gunned down by Compliance Officer without apparent excuse; still has races that make him tough and could still come forward.
 
Selections:  2-1-5-7
 
 
Race 9:  #1 White Sangria, #2 One Time Only, and #4 Fancy Boss are the three favorites on the ML, and they are the three horses to beat, but there are enough questions surrounding all of them to make this an interesting race to go looking for a better-priced option, and Pace Projector indicates that the three of them may wind up hurting each other up on the pace.  
 
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We'll take a shot against them with #3 Invading Humor, who may have been compromised by trying to rally through some stretch traffic down inside when last seen, and who will appreciate any pace that develops for her in this race. 
 
Selections:  3-2-1-4 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for July 12

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Saturday, July 12

Race 1:  With four of the six entered for the opener exiting the 4th race from June 19, evaluating that race may go a long way toward giving you a handle on this one.  We were impressed with the late run put in by #3 Grand Rapport to get up in there, as he was last at the top of the stretch and still had work to do at the 1/8th pole, but still managed to close up on the leaders; he clearly has back races that are too tough for these, and having a 3: 2-1-0 record over this distance is another point in his favor.  #2 Zane clipped heels early on and took an inside trip while no threat behind Grand Rapport in that race, but he was very impressive in winning his most recent turf start prior to that one, and he could put his strong late pace rating of 103 to good use with a clean trip.  #5 Kiss of Thunder disappointed last time after running very well in his first three starts of the year; could be given a chance to rebound at the right price.  We would take the chances of #6 Pretension very seriously were he not claimed from his last start (new trainer gets lowly 41 rating off the claim, and is 2 for his last 50 off the claim on turf), as his lone turf route, which came prior to the layoff last year, gives him a chance, and Pace Projector puts him on the early lead here.
 
 
Selections:  3-2-6-5
 
 
Race 2:  #2 Saythreehailmary's was impressive in breaking her maiden over this track and trip two starts back, and she earned an 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, which is the top dirt figure in the race (none of her opponents has ever reached 80); makes second start vs. winners after racing on gamely while only third-best last time, but faced a couple of tougher foes there.  #5 Daddy's Lil Saint showed enough as a 2yo to merit consideration here, and she's run only on turf so far this year.  #1 Devious Maddy ran well with the best trip when back to dirt off the trainer change last time; will need to run her very best race over fast dirt this time.  
 
Selections:  2-5-1-3
 
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Race 3:  #5 Petrocelli has been facing tougher than this right along, and he ran well last time while taking charge of a fast early pace before succumbing late; Pace Projector places him in control early once again in a race that favors runners on or near the early lead.  
 
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#4 Beyond Empire was likely best two back when forced to take a five-wide run through the turn, and he did have trouble at the break last time before tiring in the stretch.  #1 Four Directions parlayed a perfect trip tracking a pace duel into an overdue maiden win last time; stretches a little farther in a tougher spot.
 
Selections:  5-4-1-2
 
 
Race 4:  Tough turf allowance for fillies and mares has no shortage of contenders, so we'll take a shot at a price with #5 Malibu Holiday.  She is clearly a better turf horse, so the spate of dirt races won't dissuade us, and she earned speed figures for her three turf races in NY (two of which she won) that fit well in this field.  #3 Love Train switched to turf last time off the trainer change and could hardly have been more impressive in kicking clear strongly through the stretch before being taken in hand prior to the finish; must stretch out for the first time, which is no small thing, especially at a short price.  #1 Lonesome Town has been close in a couple of tough spots recently, but didn't come away unlucky in either of those races; this is a better spot. 
 
Selections:  5-1-3-4
 
 
Race 5:  #10 Startripenterprise's only dirt starts since being claimed by the very sharp Nick Esler have come vs. MSW company, and he was rated back and wide against a gold rail on March 16th, and then caught slop over a mile on May 8th; switches back from turf for this, and Pace Projector indicates that he has the best early speed in the field.  #6 Hampden Fiveone has been unlucky more than once, and he is also dropping in class here while switching from turf to dirt; trainer gets 99 rating with the MSW-to-MCL drop, from a limited sample.  #1 Bryce Bryce Baby can be given another chance as he drops down off the trainer change and layoff for his second career start; had some speed after getting away at the back of the field in his debut.
 
Selections:  10-6-1-9
 
 
Race 6:  One final chance for #7 Ziggy the Great here, as he cuts back to sprint on the turf for the second time since his solid debut win last summer; the only time he's sprinted this year, he was in contention past midstretch in a race that fell apart, and he tired out after dueling for the lead when left in to try the muddy main track last time.  #11 Asset Inflation tired to finish over five lengths behind #3 Archer Hill when they met over this track and trip last month, but he was caught up dueling three-wide that day, while Archer Hill sat it out in a perfect trip; we'll take him to turn the tables this time.  #4 Wake Up in Malibu has flashed some ability on the main track, and switches to turf with some pedigree, being out of a dam who went 5-for-7 in her career over turf, including a couple of stakes wins.  #2 Three for Me switches to turf off the claim, and he did not run poorly in a solid $40k claimer the only other time he tried grass.  
 
Selections:  7-11-3-2
 
 
Race 7:  #11 My Four Rewards ran a couple of turf races vs. claiming company last summer that fit well in this field, and she did not get the most comfortable trip in the world either time; taking her at a price as she drops back down in class for her second start off the layoff.  #5 Eddy's Time has some hang in her, but she managed to take over after a perfect trip and hold on to the end to get her long overdue maiden win last time; think the shorter distance of this race may suit her well.  #8 Eurokay by Me is just 1-for-40 lifetime, but she's run two of her best races since being claimed by this trainer, and she has received a couple of questionable rides in those races.  #4 Dattts Da Boss and #10 Saratoga Karaoke are both contenders, but they both took advantage of fast paces that collapsed in their recent good efforts.
 
Selections:  11-5-8-10
 
 
Race 8:  Strong coupled entry from David Jacobson here is tough to go against, as both #1 Cousin Michael and #1A Groomedforvictory look tough in this spot.  Won't try to beat them but will be interested to see what we get from #3 Associate as he continues his comeback with a class drop; caught very wide throughout the running in a very tough spot off that long layoff.
 
Selections:  1-1A-3-4
 
 
Race 9:  The Grade 2 Bowling Green, run over 1 1/2 miles on the Widener course, drew a well-matched field of seven, which is likely to scratch down to six with #4 Chamois cross-entered to an easier spot over the same distance at Delaware Park on Saturday.  
 
This race appears to go directly through the 6/5 ML favorite, #5 Grandeur, who recently finished 4th in the Grade 1 Manhattan and 3rd in the Grade 1 Man O' War and takes a bit of a step back in class here.  He ran TimeformUS Speed Figures of 113 and 112 in those two races, and while those figures make him competitive in here, they actually give him no edge at all over several of these horses.  He has better races than that to get to, but he'll likely have to in order to come out on top in this race, and we thought that he was just picking up pieces at the end of the Manhattan last time while finishing a no-factor 4th.  We have no argument with him as the horse to beat, but we think we can do better than taking him at a short price. Instead, we will be looking to beat Grandeur in this spot.  
 
The second choice on the ML is #3 Boisterous.  Boisterous is, like Grandeur, a logical horse in this race, and he is going to be very tough if he shows up here with his best stuff.  The problem with him is that he hasn't appeared to have his best stuff yet since being privately purchased and sent to Todd Pletcher's barn for his last four starts, and he has always been a horse who is at his best with a little "give" in the ground.  We also have never thought that he was at his best at this kind of distance.  Unless it rains, in which case we would move him up, we will stand against Boisterous on top. 
 
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We want to try #1 Hangover Kid on top in this race.  He figures to be a playable price in here and is not a horse who gives you concerns over distance, as he has run very well over 1 3/8 miles several times in the past and done so in some tough spots. He has also managed to run TimeformUS Speed Figures on par with the two most recent figures earned by Grandeur, and he bounced back from a no-show effort at Keeneland with a strong runner-up effort at Monmouth last month.  We think Hangover Kid is dangerous in the Bowling Green at a square price, and we like that he reunites with the hot-riding Jose Lezcano for this. He will be the focus of our play.
 
The other horse for us is #7 Reflecting, who actually turns back out of a 2-mile race, one in which he was an unlucky loser at a big price after failing to gain clearance at a crucial point in the stretch.  He is a typical slow-developing runner from the Phipps/Shug McGaughey operation, and he is also the field's lone two-time winner over 1 1/2 miles.
 
Selections:  1-7-5-3
 
 
Race 10:  Bit of a guess in wide open finale, but #8 Molly Jordan returns form the layoff with a class drop, and her half-brother, Sandy'z Slew, has been a very effective turf sprinter since making the switch.  #5 Lakeview Lady drops to a better spot after getting caught up in a couple of fast paces vs. better; she feels like the horse to beat as she makes her second start off the layoff.  
 
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There have been some whispers surrounding #12 Home to Carrowkeel, who was scratched from a dirt race earlier in the meet, so we'll see what we get if she starts here; sire Big Brown is off to a good start with turf sprinters. 
 
Selections:  8-5-12-4
 
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