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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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Belmont Analysis for Saturday May 10

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1: We've always thought that #6 Special Skills had the potential to be a solid racehorse once he had the time to grow up a little and act more professionally.  He was last seen getting dueled into defeat going longer at Monmouth last August, but he has sprinted effectively in the past, starts for a trainer adept at bringing horses back from layoffs (93 Trainer Rating off layoffs), and has enough speed to get an up-close tracking trip in this spot.  He will have to improve some here if one (or more) of his experienced rivals brings his "A" game to this spot, but has the room to do so.  #4 Thomas Hill and #8 Awakino Cat are the kinds of horses you can't help but like, as they show up every time and just run.  We think they will both appreciate getting away from those shorter sprints down at Gulfstream, and are the two horses to beat here. 
Selections:  6-4-8-5-1
Race 2:  #7 Laguna My Way has been the speed in each of her first two starts, and failed to last both times.  We understand anyone that would just take the position that he wants someone (ANYONE) else this time, but alternatives are hard to come by.  She'll be in front once again.  Maybe she can last this time.  To us, the other horse is not class-dropping #2 Las Olas Azur, who was dreadful last time, but second-time starter #5 Lexsoya.  Lexsoya raced a bit greenly in her debut last month, so could improve for the experience, and her trainer, Michelle Nevin, has won with 4 of the last 6 second-time starters she has sent out in maiden claiming races. 
Selections:  5-7-2-8-3
Race 3:  #3 Brilliant Jewel is the clear horse to beat here as a likely heavy favorite.  She has disappointed at short prices in the past, so you may want to have alternatives at the ready, but we think getting back around one turn is going to help her.  If you're against, you're doing some guessing with firsters, perhaps the most interesting of which is #4 Shayjolie (an Indian Charlie half-sister to the multiple graded stakes winner Mythical Power), who has posted some quick breezes. 
Selections:  3-4-2-1-5
Race 4:  Did a lot of looking around in this field, as we're just not sure how much we trust a horse like #2 Kingston Jamaica, though it's hard to deny that he is supposed to be tough at this level.  After much consideration, we have decided not to oppose him strongly in here.  Clearly something went amiss with this once-promising runner, and while he hasn't come back to form just yet, something close to what he has been doing on grass since the layoff should play well in here, and the class drop only helps his cause.  Our backups would be #3 Hot Sand and #10 Lead Singer, and looking at those two on form only makes the case for Kingston Jamaica stronger. 
Selections:  2-10-3-1-4
Race 5:  #5 Matching Skies hasn't been on turf in a while, but she has handled it well in the past, and done so against much tougher competition than this.  She has held solid form on the dirt all winter, so if she can transfer back to grass here, we think she may have found a likely spot.  Pace Projector indicates that there could be a bit of a scramble on early in this race, and while that scenario would play well for the tracking speed of Matching Skies, it will also help #4 Fantastic Eyes. 
Fantastic Eyes has won going farther, but she has been at her best sprinting on the grass, and this is the right level for her.  The layoff is the major concern.  We could also use #3 Downtown Hottie in this spot, as she drops down in class off of a no-show effort going longer.  She is an infrequent winner, and may be better going a bit longer than the six furlongs she gets here, but she is supposed to be tough in this field if she can still run.
Selections:  5-4-3-12-10
Race 6:  #7 Oghma is unlikely to find a better spot than this one any time soon, as he will face 8 rivals who have combined to make 216 starts while remaining eligible to this 2-life condition.  Switches from turf to dirt here, which is a strong angle for this trainer (92 rating), and he was a bit unlucky with a tough trip in his last start on the main track.
Selections:  7-4-3-5-9
Race 7:  Biggest question surrounding this race may be what #2 Edison can do here, as he makes his first start away from Gulfstream Park for Pletcher, and first start vs. winners after an all-around impressive maiden score.  He contested a fast pace every yard that day, and managed to keep it up all the way to the finish.  There is other speed in this race, and it is not always a given that this barn's runners will reproduce their Florida form, but Edison is the horse to beat here.  We are interested to see what #6 Stableford can do here as he makes his stateside debut. 
He may need one off the bench, but he earned some solid marks overseas last season, and will likely appreciate any pace that develops in front of him.  We also don't think that the NY-bred #7 Make a Decision  is out of this.  He improved toward the end of last year once learning to relax a little, and could use his new-found rating ability to good effect in this spot. 
Selections:  6-2-7-4-9
Race 8:  #8 Eastwood made an impressive start to his career last summer, winning a pair of sprints over this track, with solid figures, prior to being sold and turned over to Todd Pletcher.  He could manage only 3rd in his first start for his new connections, but Eastwood lost nothing in defeat that day, as he was forced to contest a very strong pace and only succumbed to closers late after exchanging a couple of bumps in the stretch.  Pace Projector envisions no such early battles for Eastwood in this race, and places him in front early in a race-shape that favors horses on or near the early lead. 
We think the main danger to Eastwood could be #5 Don Tito, who has won 3 of 4 starts off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez, and has earned competitive speed figures for all three of those wins while managing to overcome some modest paces.  #10 Confrontation could be a player here as well, as there may still be some upside with him, and he won each of his first three starts convincingly before heading south and running into Evolution Rocks, who hung up a 117 speed figure in that race. 
Selections:  8-5-10-4-1A
Race 9: 
We believe #4 Tonalist  to be the Peter Pan entrant with the most scope for improvement, and we think he is the horse to beat.  However, if ever there is a time to take a stand against a horse at a short price, it is when that horse enters the gate with questions surrounding his current form.  Tonalist was looking very good down in Florida over the winter, first overpowering maidens over nine-furlongs despite a wide trip, and then finishing a solid second to the undefeated Constitution despite being taken out of his game while forced to chase that rival over a speed-favoring track.  Those efforts spurred talk of Tonalist being a legit Kentucky Derby contender, and he was supposed to get his chance to make that race by competing in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial in April at Aqueduct.  Unfortunately, Tonalist came down with a lung infection, which caused him to miss that race and lose any hope of running in the Derby.  He has also reportedly been training in bar shoes lately to help alleviate some issues with his feet.  Neither of those things means that Tonalist can't or won't win the Peter Pan.  But it does make taking a short price on him a little more difficult to do.
Our Pace Projector for the Peter Pan indicates that Fabulous Kid, a speedy son of Congrats newly settled into trainer Jimmy Toner's barn, will be on a clear early lead, with that being the preferred running style for the race.  We think that the extra furlong here is going to prove too much for Fabulous Kid, but we like the projected trip for our selection in the race, #6 Our Caravan, who should be tracking right in behind that lone pace-setter.  Our Caravan was asked to run in a couple of difficult spots at Gulfstream after winning first time out at a big price, and that didn't work out.  But he looked good defeating Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby winner Ring Weekend at Calder with new blinkers last time, and he earned a solid 97 TimeformUS speed figure for that effort, which puts him on par with Tonalist.  
Selections:  6-4-1-2-7
Race 10:  Very interesting maiden event on the grass to close it out, one that will bear watching down the line no matter who comes out on top today, but we are very interested in taking a shot with #5 Brilliant Command in this race.  Brilliant Command made a highly promising debut at Saratoga last summer, racing wide throughout and coming with a good stretch run to battle for the lead and ultimately falling just short.  He then had a no-chance trip behind a wire-to-wire winner on a slow pace in his second start, and was not put all-in by his rider when it was apparent that he had no chance.  He's likely to need a little pace to develop for him to have his best shot, but with 12 entered, including the stretch-out sprinter #11 Lunar Tales, that shouldn't be an issue.  We are also interested in #12 Knight of Valor (a half to the multiple graded stakes winner Mr. Commons), who was green and outrun early before putting in a run in his Gulfstream debut. 
Selections:  5-12-2-3-7

Belmont Analysis for Friday May 9

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  Both #1 Magsamelia and #6 Will Do are logical horses in this race, and so it is no surprise to see them favored on the ML.  Magsamelia drops down for the first time and will be looking to get back to something more like her debut effort, where she got an easy trip, kicked out to a clear stretch lead, and was run down late.  Will Do, meanwhile, could be viewed as a horse who hasn't had a fair chance yet.  She caught sloppy tracks, and was back off of moderate paces, in each of her first two starts, and then was run off her feet by a blowout drop-down winner over a speed-favoring track last time. 2014-05-09_07-14-55r1
We'll see if one of them can break through here, but we are going to take a small shot against them with first-time starter #7 Quality LegendBy Elusive Quality and out of a multiple stakes-winning dam, Quality Legend scores a strong 93 pedigree rating, and her trainer's rating with maiden claimers on today's circuit (96, as compared to his 74 overall rating) sticks out. 
Selections:  7-1-6-3
Race 2:   #5 Partly Mocha owns the best turf sprint form in the field, and is handy enough to pull any kind of trip in a race, depending upon the pace scenario.  The question for him will be, can he run his best race off the layoff?  It took him a couple of starts last year to hit his best stride off the bench, and his trainer does not have a strong rating with horse starting back off a break (65 vs. an overall rating of 74).  If he needs one, #4 Bluegrass Springs, off of a layoff of his own, could be the right one here.  Bluegrass Springs won both of his turf starts over this trip last year, and he was up against it when last seen, rating back off of a moderate pace while facing a strong field for the level.  There appears to be plenty of pace signed in here, assuming the field stays intact, and that would benefit Bluegrass Springs most, as he sports the fields top Late Pace Rating (92) by a wide margin.
Selections:  4-5-1-9-10
Race 3:  
Pace Projector for this race favors horses on or near the early lead, and of the three horses expected to be part of the pace, we prefer #7 Bio Pro. Bio Pro has been holding graded-stakes quality form in Southern California since last summer, and he will get the right turn-back in distance here while making his first start since being purchased privately and being turned over to Bill Mott.  
The other West Coast invader, #1 Slim Shadey, would be dangerous if re-finding his best form, but he's been at his best over longer distances since arriving stateside way back in early 2012 (all four U.S. wins are at 1 1/4 miles). 
Selections:  7-1-9-10-4
Race 4:  #1 Moon Back More has earned a couple of recent layover figures, and has been installed as a short-priced ML favorite in this low-level claimer for older horses.  With alternatives difficult to come by, we will just point out that Pace Projector for this race favors horses racing up close and indicates that #9 Privatize could be loose on the lead here.  Whether that's enough of an advantage for Privatize, who is 1-for-14 lifetime and has managed to disappoint in a likely spot more than once, remains to be seen, but we will use him in the Pick 5, just in case.
Selections:  1-9-2-7-8
Race 5:  This appears to be the right spot for #5 Joking to get back into the winner's circle, after running well in each of his last three starts while coming up short.  He is consistently running the fastest races of this group recently, and will just have to keep himself in range early, as this race does not figure to feature a big pace.  Pace Projector favors the early leaders, and indicates that #4 Make a Fortune will make the front in here, in his first start off the Jacobson claim.  We have seen these horses be plenty dangerous in the past, so, if nothing else, it may pay to keep an eye on the board before finalizing your wagers. 
Selections:  5-4-2-1
Race 6:  #11 Annie Walker has proven a handful through three turf starts so far, breaking slowly and fighting her rider each time, while costing herself a fair chance.  Wonder if they'll just turn her loose early in here as she cuts back to a sprint. #5 Saucon Valley is a first-time starter by City Zip and debuts with Lasix for Chad Brown, and it would be no surprise if she came out running.  #3 Laurenmychanelgirl doesn't have a ton of turf in her pedigree, but is a second-time starter for Linda Rice (92 rating), and she was outrun early over a speed-favoring track in her debut. 
Selections:  11-5-3-1-8
Race 7: This is a very good allowance race, one that has a chance to produce a stakes runner or two down the line.  #7 Fingers Crossed didn't do well in Florida over the winter, but she ran a pair of strong races here last October, including a 100 TimeformUS speed figure effort to break her maiden.  She will have Lasix for the second time here, projects for a nice tracking trip in this race, and will be a price, so we are happy to give her a chance in this solid-looking allowance field.
We're starting to get a little tired of #1A Tokyo Time, who clearly has ability and has been very unlucky on more than one occasion, but has also disappointed without apparent excuse in the past and did not run well when last seen at Gulfstream back in January.  She's a must-use for us in the late Pick 4, however.  #6 Wholelottashakin isn't exactly a winning type, with just three career victories from 20 starts, but she is very consistent, and handy enough to get any kind of trip.  Chad Brown will send out the uncoupled pair of #4 Balashkova, a first-time import from France with a 1-for-7 career mark, and #9 Fizzy Pink, who looked good breaking her maiden in her first stateside start at Aqueduct.  
Selections:  7-1A-4-6-9
Race 8:  Field of only 5 set to contest this one-turn mile, but any one of them could win it without surprising.  While Pace Projector favors the early leaders, and places #1 Piquant alone on the pace, we will attempt to defy that scenario by taking the very sharp #4 Start Jumping on top.  This is a tact we would be unlikely to take were Start Jumping a short price in this race, but seeing that he is the fourth choice on the ML, and considering the form this horse has been in recently, makes us more willing to take a chance.  #5 Irsaal is the ML favorite, and it is worth pointing, given the forecast for the area this week, that he likes a wet track, but he got a perfect trip in that win last out, and every horse in this field has run a faster race than he has so far proven capable of.  
Selections:  4-1-5-3-2
Race 9:  #9 Bella Kateri figures to be a solid favorite here off her Keeneland debut run, where she rallied gamely through the stretch to just miss 2nd (albeit with a perfect trip). We get her appeal, but want to try #8 Honeychild in this spot, as she returns from a layoff to make her 3yo debut. Honeychild made a nice turf debut at Saratoga, finishing a game second-best after a tough trip, and then disappointed a bit in her next two starts.  She returns here with a trainer change to George Weaver, who gets a perfect 100 Trainer Rating with horses making their first start out of his barn.  #11 Lutheran Miss also deserves a look as she switches to turf for start number two after chasing a wire-to-wire winner over a speed-favoring track in her debut.  
Selections:  8-9-11-1-6

Belmont Analysis for Thursday, May 8

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer


Race 1:  #6 Vona appears to be the clear horse to beat in the opener, as he drops into a claimer for the first time.  He owns two of the top speed figures in the field, has a nice outside post, and keeps the services of the leading rider in the country.  We're not going to make much money betting him in the win pool, but we will try to get a price underneath him in the exacta with #1 Metasonic.  After a no-show turf debut, Metasonic switched to dirt and ran an improved race despite getting a less-than-ideal trip.  He was jammed in behind the lead most of the way, and then spent much of the stretch run trying to muscle his way out into the clear.  With Pace Projector indicating that there could be a scramble for the early lead in this race, we'll hope Metasonic can work a more comfortable trip and run late. 
Selections:  6-1-2-5-3
Race 2:  Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead, and we are on board, as #2 Madame Wasabi is our choice, and she projects to be the early leader.
This is as much of an anti-favorite opinion as it is a strong endorsement of Madame Wasabi, as both #4 Summer in Bali (who is slow on our speed figures, and got away with a soft pace off the claim last time) and #7 Pinch Me Again (lone win came in race that fell apart late) are short prices we do not want.  
Selections:  2-3-7-4
Race 3:  #4 Prairie Stone has improved with the stretch out in distance, and she was much the best breaking her maiden in a one-turn mile at Aqueduct last time out.  
She projects for a nice stalking trip in this spot, and we will take her over stretch-out sprinter #1 Sheriffa, and the in-form #3 Vaid, who has been making a habit of desperate finishes lately.
Selections:  4-3-1-6
Race 4:  This one-turn mile for NY-bred maidens has a wide-open feel to it, and that will send us price-hunting.  We don't like ML favorite #7 Salisbury Knight, who has kept good company but done no running in pair of starts so far, nor can we really fall for second choice #5 Bluegrass Flash, who spent all of his 2yo season losing at short prices.  Pace Projector puts #8 Mighty Zealous on a clear early lead, and that will make him dangerous, assuming he handles the stretch-out in distance, but we are going to take a shot with #4 Coviello.  Coviello is the kind of second-time starter we like to take a chance with at a price (layoff not included), as he showed a flash of ability with a late run in his debut.  He's a price in this race, and if he is ready to go off the bench, we think he may be able to get a big piece of this race.  
Selections:  4-8-5-1-7
Race 5:  Pace Projector puts #4 Mia Poppy alone on the lead here, and that makes him dangerous, although it's worth pointing out that he hasn't won a race since going on a 4-for-5 run way back in 2012.  We have to use him, but will try another horse carrying a long losing streak into this race on top.  #10 Majestic Raffy was blanked from six 2013 starts, but he faced tough competition all along while running well several times, and he has a long line of fast speed figures to back him up.  We'll view that dirt sprint off the layoff as a pure prep to shake off some rust and take him on top, while saving in exactas underneath Mia Poppy.
Selections:  10-4-1-3
Race 6:  #4 Casual Elegance was able to parlay a comfortable trip tracking a moderate pace into an easy win three starts back, and she exits a solid effort getting the best of a more contested pace last time, only to succumb to the closers late.  Pace Projector for this race places her in a nice spot tracking off of a longshot leader, and that kind of trip will make her dangerous.  
#3 Jealous has been in career-best form, and also projects for a nice tracking trip, though she has never been this far on dirt.  #1 Physical Delivery is the strong ML favorite, and the one taking the class drop in this field, but she may be compromised by the expected pace scenario, and is far from a layover on speed figures.  
Selections:  4-1-3-7
Race 7:  There are several ways to go in this first-level allowance for NY-bred filly turf sprinters, so let price be your guide.  The main contenders for us are #5 Aesthetique, #2 White Crane, #10 As Well and #1 Image of Noon. Aesthetique, despite the layoff, may be the horse to beat, as she flashed real potential as a 2yo, and after a couple of unlucky trips in her first two starts, put things together in an impressive maiden score when last seen.  White Crane is interesting, as well, though we would want more than the 5/1 she is pegged at on the ML.  We'll view that last route try as a prep for this turn-back, and if you go back to her turf sprints at Saratoga last summer, she is competitive in here.  We can also use As Well, who is always at the mercy of pace and trip, but is better sprinting than routing.  
Selections:  5-2-10-1
Race 8:  Featured sprint brings together a well-matched field of 8, and it may come down to trips.  Checking out Pace Projector to get a feel for where everyone will be early, we see that horses racing either on or near the early lead may be at an advantage.  That scenario works against ML favorite #8 Masasi, and while we are fans of hers, and think she is better than she looks on paper after some disadvantageous trips and pace-scenarios, she may be unlucky once again. We're going to hope that Bill Mott's #7 Calistoga can right the ship here.  After getting off to a promising start to her career last winter, Calistoga appears to have run into some issues, which forced her to miss plenty of time at the races. Since returning earlier this year in Florida, she has caught a couple of pace scenarios that have worked against her: contesting a fast pace (denoted by fractions in red) in her first start off the layoff, and then racing at the back of the field in a moderately paced affair last time.  
She should be able to land a nice tracking spot from her outside draw today, and she may even be a playable price for the first time since her debut.
Selections:  7-8-3-4
Race 9:  Pace Projector favors horses up front in this race, and places #7 Stage Name on the lead early.  Perhaps that advantage will be enough for her to make her turf debut a winning one, but we thought that she might take some pressure here from #10 screen-shot-2014-05-07-at-4-19-40-pmHoliday Drama.  Holiday Drama goes first off the claim for trainer Mike Maker (a strong 97 trainer rating first off the claim, among other strong ratings in relevant categories), and does so after showing strong early speed over Keeneland's synthetic surface in her last start.  Holiday Drama has never raced this cheaply on grass before, and the combination of being able to stay close to an uncontested pace and the class relief may make her tough in this spot.  We are using Holiday Drama in the late Pick 4, but we want to try #4 Radiant Cut in this race as she switches back to turf.  Radiant Cut fits well at this level, projects for a nice ground-saving, pace-tracking trip, is a better turf sprinter than she is anything else, and will be a price.  
Selections:  4-10-11-5-7



Belmont Analysis for Wednesday May 7

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  Opener has the look of a two-horse race between drop-downs #1 SAMPSON COUNTY and #7 TAPULOUS. While they've combined to make 18 starts already, alternatives are hard to come by, and they tower over their opponents on speed figures. It does seem that today will be graduation day for one of them, and we'll take Tapulous on top.  He got the better of the draw on the outside, and Pace Projector places him up on the lead, which should be to his advantage.  
Selections:  7-1-6-3-2
Race 2:  #7 UNBRIDLED LOGIC has started on turf only four times to date, but he's run well every time, and he came with a strong finish to close down front-running #6 WIND OF BOSPHORUS when last on grass in September.  Wind of Bosphorus projects to be on the front again today, but we'll take Unbridled Logic to come running again.  #1 LOGAN STREET is also a closer with a chance, but he has had plenty of fast paces to run into lately, and that may not be the case for him today.  #2 MCILROY has won two in a row on grass for Chad Brown, but those races are a little slow on our speed figures, and he'll have to improve stepping up here. 
Selections:  7-6-1-2-8
Race 3:  #5 NICHOLSON and #6 MASTER YANK seem the two to take here, as they are both lightly raced and still eligible to improve, while their opposition has primarily already been exposed.  They have both run top speed figures of 80, which makes them competitive here, and while Master Yank has more speed and turns back in distance today, we like Nicholson on top.  Nicholson earned his 80 speed figure going longer in a strongly rated MSW field (93, compared to today's 79).  He then turned back last time and was outrun early over a highly speed-favoring track (denoted by dark red in the race rating box), but did well to finish 3rd.  
GOLDEN DOC would be our other horse, as he could be on the lead assuming a clean break this time, but we were disappointed in his last effort, despite his not getting away from the gate very well.
Selections:  5-6-7-2-3
Race 4:  Pace Projector indicates a fast pace is on tap for these $40k maiden claimers, and that worries us a bit because our pick in this race, #7 BAD TO THE ROAN, projects to be a part of it.  
But we will keep our faith in this horse today, as he has the outside draw, which may help alleviate the harm from the pace scenario, and we just think he is better than his competition today.  Yes, both #5 SPANGO and #8 YOU YOU have run better speed figures than Bad to the Roan, but they earned those figures while being defeated by Horatio, so, enough said.  Bad to the Roan was bet strongly in his debut, but didn't have a lot of early speed and wound up in a 4-and-5-wide trip on a day when runners with speed and the rail 5_7_R4_(2)dominated the racing.  He had more speed second-time out, but was simply in too tough. Finally, his trainer, George Weaver, has a very strong trainer rating when dropping from MSW to maiden claiming company (74 overall rating, 96 with this class drop).  Our other horse in here is #3 SPEED READ, who has faced some stiff competition in his brief career, and lost all chance with trouble at the start last time.  
Selections:  7-3-8-5-4
Race 5:  Pace Projector places #2 PHOTON and #6 READTHEBYLINE up on the pace together, and they are the two horses we like in this race.  For wagering purposes, it will all come down to price, but we'll put Photon on top.  Photon has been holding solid form during his current form cycle, earning triple-digit speed figures for his runner-up efforts two and three back, and he was doomed by a fast and contested pace when last seen in a tough allowance race on Wood Memorial day. (Note that fast paces are denoted by red fractions or pace figures.)
Readthebyline has the best back races to get to, although you have to go back to last summer to get there.  He is first off the claim by the very sharp Michelle Nevin (a perfect 100 trainer rating first off the claim), so maybe that will do it, and he did well to survive a pace battle in his last start.  
Selections:  2-6-7-8-4
Race 6:  Enticing match up here between #3 DIVINE ENERGY and #5 BAY OF PLENTY, a pair of well-connected and talented colts who could play in some bigger races down the line. Divine Energy earned a strong 104 TimeformUS speed figure for his impressive effort off the layoff last time, while Bay of Plenty flat powered away from his competition going longer to break his maiden over Aqueduct's inner dirt.  Neither one of them is likely to offer much in the way of wagering value on the win end, but this is a good race to keep an eye on for the future.
Selections:  3-5-7-6
Race 7:  Pace Projector indicates that this race will favor runners on or near the early lead, with #5 YOUR TIME IS UP and #8 SACRED SUCCESS being the pair likely to be up on the pace.  Since Sacred Success was badly off form when last seen, we couldn't take her in this race, pace advantage or not.  Not only does that leave Your Time is Up in an enviable position in this race, she earned speed figures for her winning efforts two and three back that would make her very tough in this field.  We make her the horse to beat, and will use her in all wagers, but want to take a shot against her with a better-priced option.  DEE DEE'S COMET was in very good form all winter at Aqueduct, and, while she is no burner early, she has enough tactical speed to not be compromised by moderate fractions.  She also finished ahead of Your Time is Up when last seen, despite not getting the best trip (or ride) in the world that day.  
Selections:  1-5-7-4-6
Race 8:  This is another race that our Pace Projector indicates will favor horses up close early, and it puts #3 SATISFACTION in control of things on the lead through the early fractions.  
Perhaps that will be all it takes for her to find the winner's circle for the second time in four starts, but we like the chances of #4 PRECARIOUS here off the layoff. Precarious has run very well when up on or near the lead in the past, and while Pace Projector has her at the back of the field early, if she is showing some early initiative fresh off the bench, she can pull the right trip.  
Selections:  4-3-2-1-5
Race 9:  #9 MANERO has been setting fast paces down in Florida recently, and he has all of the good speed figures in the race, but he is an infrequent winner, and is clearly hard to trust.  We have to play against him in this spot, and will do so with #10 MAGMA, who has spent too much time racing on dirt since arriving stateside toward the end of last year.  He earned a solid figure for his North American debut, which came in way too tough of a spot, and we can excuse his last, as he caught yielding ground vs. starter allowance company and was wired by repeat winner Princess of Mara.  
Selections:  10-6-9-1A-11