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Big Apple Babies

 

Big Apple Babies is a series that takes a glance at the pedigrees and sales histories of select 2-year-olds who are making their debuts in maiden special weight races at Aqueduct Racetrack, Belmont Park, or Saratoga Race Course. Many of history’s best horses have commenced their careers in New York, and Big Apple Babies will help fans find the stars of tomorrow as they head postward for the first time.

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, September 6, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, September 6, 2014

Race 7, All 2-year-olds, one mile, turf, 4:13 p.m.

ANIMAL KRACKER (bay colt, Leroidesanimaux—Sweet Theresa, by Strike Smartly) is the first foal out of a mare who in South Africa won the Group 3 Hertz Fillies Mile and was third in the Group 1 S.A. Fillies Classic. Sweet Theresa is a half-sister to Starlit, who won three group stakes and was group 1 placed in South Africa.

Owner: Team Valor International & Albert Frassetto

Trainer: Thomas Bush

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

 

COMMAND CONTROL (gray/roan colt, Smart Strike—Meghan’s Joy, by A.P. Indy) is a half-brother to a trio of runners who have earned black type on the grass: Quiet Harbor, who took the Grade 3 Violet; Seal Cove, who won minor stakes at Saratoga Race Course and Aqueduct Racetrack; and Minister’s Joy, who was third in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf Handicap and on a synthetic track was second in the Grade 3 Ben Ali. Command Control also is a half-brother to Hunting, who took the Grade 3 Stuyvesant Handicap; and Norumbega, victorious in the Grade 2 Brooklyn in June. Their dam placed in three stakes on the dirt at Laurel Park and won four races, including one on the turf.

Owner: Stuart S. Janney III

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: John Velazquez

 

SUPA (bay colt, War Chant—Blended Beauty, by Fusaichi Pegasus) is out of an unplaced half-sister to Splendid Blended, who won the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet and Grade 1 Vanity Invitational Handicap; and Richly Blended, winner of the Grade 3 Gotham and Grade 3 Withers. Blended Beauty has produced two starters, with her lone winner having a maiden victory on the turf to her credit.

Owner: Peter Vegso

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Abel Lezcano

 

ST. LOUIE (dark bay or brown colt, Arch—Seeking an Angel, by Seeking the Gold) is out of a mare who was a distant second in a stakes on the dirt at Monmouth Park. Seeking an Angel is a half-sister to Group 1 Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Hula Angel and Schedule, a two-time stakes winner on the dirt at the Meadowlands. She has produced one previous starter, who has a single win on the grass in eight starts.

Owner: Richard Santulli

Trainer: Alan Goldberg

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.

 

TimeformUS Analysis for September 5

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Opening Day at Belmont Park's Fall Championship Meet

Race 1:  #3 Upward hung up a big 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure in an impressive score over this track back on May 25, which was also the last time he went turf-to-dirt.  #2 Attractive Ride posted back-to-back blowouts when back around one-turn off a short break, including 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure blowout at Saratoga last out.  We'll see if he can keep it up off the claim, but he lands in a race that is projected to favor speed types once again. #1 Italian Rules drops for Jacobson and will need to get back to top form if the top two bring their best stuff.

Selections:  3-2-1-5
 
Race 2:  #4 Percy's Ambition drops again for second start off the layoff, and he has speed.  Trainer has done some of his best work recently with older claimers on dirt (93 rating).  #2 Deimos was on the outside against a strong rail and speed- favoring track in lone dirt start, which came as a 2yo.  He has improved, and will make his first start on the main track since then for a tag.  #3 Robert Noble hasn't had much to offer through first two starts but this is a big class drop and he ran into a blowout winner in lone dirt start.
 
Selections:  4-2-3-1
 
Race 3:  #4 Tout had to steady while in tight early, then rallied through the stretch behind a front-running Pletcher favorite off the layoff at Monmouth.  Has room to go forward, and doesn't have much to find vs. this field.  #2 Point Hope was no match for Classic Sense over a sloppy track going longer at Saratoga, but that horse came back to run another good one while against the grain of an inside, speed-favoring track up there.  New trainer does excellent work off the claim.  #7 March Too has to stretch out, and will likely have to do better than his debut, but he's eligible to do so, and he can be on the early lead in this spot.
 
Selections:  4-2-7-8
 
Race 4:  #10 Dramatize has failed from on the pace in last two starts, but we think she may be better from off of it, and with a fast pace projected for this race, she may have no choice.  Hard to view trainer change as anything more than a lateral move, but the change of scenery may do her some good, and new barn is hot right now.  #7 Thundering Gale stretches out while dropping in price for second start off the claim and is clearly the horse to beat.  #8 Flirtatious Spring takes needed drop in for a tag for the first time.  Has run some of the best figures in the field and is supposed to be tougher in a spot like this.  
 
Selections:  10-7-8-11
 
Race 5:  #1 Glickman was hooked into a fast duel and tired late when second off the long layoff upstate.  Should be more comfortable early in this spot, which Pace Projector indicates will favor runners with speed.  #9 Sir Bond doesn't have much early speed but gets a class drop for the first time, and that alone should make him tough.  Still think #4 Indy Sea is a better turf horse, but he handles dirt well and new trainer gets 98 rating off the claim and perfect 100 rating with claimers down in class.
 
Selections:  1-9-4-5
 
Race 6:  Pace Projector favors the leaders in this 11-furlong turf route, which kicks off the Late Pick 4, and places the two favorites on the ML, #9 Silky and #3 Cloture, at the back of the pack.  Silky finished gamely after being bumped in the stretch last time, and she picks up Castellano for the first time today.  Cloture had little chance to impact the impressive Crown Queen in her most recent start, and she owns the top Late Pace Rating in the field (101), which may give her a better chance of overcoming the pace scenario.
 
Selections:  3-9-4-8

 

Race 7:  #4 Greywalls had scheduled turf debut rained off at Saratoga but stayed in and picked up some experience.  She has an 88 pedigree rating for turf sprints, and her trainer gets an 88 of his own with second-time starters.

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#10 Wall Street Lady took money for her dirt debut and stopped badly after chasing the pace early.  Switches to turf for her second start, a switch that may work for her because she's a half to a 5-time winner on grass.  #3 Misbehavin Miss debuts for Clement, and her dam was a fleet turf sprinter (7 of her 8 career wins, including 5 stakes, came in turf sprints) who earned over $680k in her career. 

Selections:  4-10-3-6
 
Race 8:  Short but competitive field for the first running of the $100k Left Bank.  We have always preferred #5 Pants On Fire as a one-turn-miler type and will lean on him in the Pick 4 as he cuts back in distance to make his third start off the layoff.  Last three one-turn miles have resulted in two wins and a close-up 3rd-place finish, with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 116, 115, 113.  #1 Alpha and #2 Golden Ticket hit the wire together in the 2012 Travers, and either is capable of winning this with something approaching a top effort, but we'll take our chances against them.
 
Selections:  5-2-1-6
 
Race 9:  #7 Whyalwaysme tried a couple of tough spots upstate off the claim. 

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Repeat of 72 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned while contesting a fast pace in lone start at this level will make him tough to beat.  New face #2 Jacob's Here is eligible to handle the switch to grass, and he'll appreciate dropping back down in class.  Dam was a multiple stakes winner on dirt, but she ran to form throughout her career on grass while keeping good company. 

Selections:  7-2-1-4

 

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Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 5, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 5, 2014

Race 7, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, turf, 4:13 p.m.

TAP IT OUT (chestnut filly, Tapit—Great Intentions, by Cat Thief) is out of a sprinter who won the Grade 2 First Flight Handicap and Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Handicap. Great Intentions, who was unplaced in one start on the turf, is a half-sister to Sea Road, who won minor stakes on the turf at Gulfstream Park and Saratoga Race Course and was third in the Grade 3 Royal North on the grass. As a broodmare, Great Intentions has produced three starters, including two turf winners.

Owner: Richard Santulli

Trainer: Alan Goldberg

Jockey: Edgar Prado

 

CONSUMER CREDIT (dark bay or brown filly, More Than Ready—Sally Bowles, by London News) is out of a mare who in South Africa won the Group 2 KZN Fillies Guineas and was second in the Group 1 Allan Robertson Fillies Championship. Sally Bowles has produced one winner – London Citizen, who is stakes placed in Sweden – from two starters.

Owner: Klaravich Stables & William H. Lawrence

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $185,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

MISS BEHAVIN MISS (bay filly, Mineshaft—Unbridled Sidney, by Unbridled’s Song) is out of a turf runner who won four stakes at Churchill Downs and one stakes apiece at Calder Race Course and Pimlico. Unbridled Sidney also was third in the Grade 3 Royal North and is a half-sister to Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Caller One and Grade 2 A Phenomenon victor Prospect Bay. She has produced three starters, with her lone winner having picked up a maiden score on the turf.

Owner: Douglas Devenport

Trainer: Christophe Clement

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

 

ALL IN FUN (chestnut filly, Tapit—Devils Humor, by Distorted Humor) is the first foal out of her dam, a two-time winner on the dirt who is a daughter of Grade 1 Ashland and Grade 1 Mother Goose heroine Fleet Renee. Devils Humor is a half-sister to Stormy Renee, the dam of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprinter winner Hightail.

Owner: Stuart Janney III

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sales history: $200,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

GINGER RUSH (chestnut filly, Speightstown—Victorina, by Delaware Township) is slated to become the first starter out of her dam, who won 10 black-type stakes, including the Grade 3 Azalea. On the turf, Victorina was third in the Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy Handicap and second in a minor stakes at Santa Rosa. Ginger Rush’s second dam is a half-sister C. S. Silk, who won the Grade 1 Just a Game on the grass, and Remember Sheik, victorious in the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby on the dirt.

Owner: Bach Stables

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $90,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

LANA’S FORTUNE (dark bay or brown filly, Harlan’s Holiday—My Pal Lana, by Kris S.) is out of a mare who won the River Memories and Flaming Page, a pair of listed stakes on the turf at Woodbine. My Pal Lana has produced two turf winners from three starters. Lana’s Fortune’s second dam, Palana, was a listed stakes winner in England.

Owner: Fortune Farm

Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart

Jockey: Manuel Franco

Sales history: $40,000 Keeneland November weanling; $70,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.

 

TimeformUS Analysis for July 13

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Sunday, July 13

Race 1:  #2 Pitched has found the right spot as she switches back to dirt to face maiden claiming company on that surface for the first time. Last two main track efforts not as bad as they look as both February 17 and March 16 were days when the AQU track was featuring a strong rail, and Pitched was on the outside both times. Still, the 76 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned for that last dirt start is tops in the field by a clear margin.  #3 Tordita isn't as fast as Pitched, was disappointing as the favorite last time, and is a question mark going this far.  #4 Quality Legend is something of a wildcard, as she has never raced this cheap on dirt and has yet to run over a fast track; the most likely upsetter.
 
Selections:  2-4-5-3
 
 
Race 2:  #7 The Lady's Cruisen raced a bit greenly, then finished gamely to get 3rd behind favored Royal Jest and #1 Jennys Creek in her debut here three weeks ago; has the upside and figures to come forward for the experience for a trainer whose runners tend to improve from start #1 to start #2 (94 trainer rating).  
 
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Jennys Creek tries again in career start #17 after being only second-best last time; has attained a level that makes her competitive in here, but obviously doesn't have the upside that The Lady's Cruisen does.  #5 Baby B has never had enough while showing speed on turf vs. MSW company, but those races were all going longer, and she may appreciate getting to sprint in her second start off the claim.  
 
Selections:  7-1-5-4
 
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Race 3:  #2 Bustin It steps into this $125k stakes race as a maiden, but we are pretty sure he's seeing a huge class drop after getting stuck chasing impressive Pletcher first-timer Nonna's Boy in his debut; still gave game chase to that talented rival all the way and is unlikely to be meeting anything near his equal in this spot.  #3 Elusive New Yorker brought $220k as a yearling and as a half to 11-time stakes-winning millionaire Naught New Yorker has license to be a runner.  #5 International Star is the lone entrant in the field with a prior win, but that came over turf after a perfect trip, and he will probably have to do better than that if Bustin It runs back to his debut.
 
Selections:  2-3-5-6
 
 
Race 4:  #12 Claiming Victory feels like the horse to beat as she takes a substantial class drop at the end of the meet, and it's not as if she has been off form; logical horse in a logical spot.  We'll take a shot against her with #2 Lotsa Noodles, who also gets a class drop here while making her third start off the layoff for a trainer who has very quietly had a strong meet here; has run figures on turf in the past that make her very competitive here, and she'll be a price.  #9 Implied is another one dropping down after trailing a field home at Delaware last time; posted big upset over allowance-type Frege at GP two starts back, and another effort like that would do in this spot. 
 
Selections:  2-12-9-8
 
 
Race 5:  #5 High Inflation won her first two starts off the trainer change to Gary Gullo, and she received a confusing ride last time, with the 10-lb. bug never taking her clear through the stretch, and ultimately lacked room to run late; gets a change for this and projects to be in a good spot tracking a couple of longshots from the outside.  #8 Rettalfa's gate woes continue, as she was away slowly once again last time and left with too much to do late when finishing a couple of lengths behind High Inflation; the horse to beat, if she can get away at least halfway decently.  #3 Valerie Victoria makes what is essentially her 3yo debut here, and doesn't have much improving to do on her juvenile form to contend; has dangerous speed, though her new trainer isn't known to fire off the claim (46 trainer rating).  
 
Selections:  5-8-3-6
 
 
Race 6:  #7 Mr. Masterpiece has quietly been in good form all year for a low-profile barn, and he had plenty of trouble when blocked through the upper stretch two back, when behind #6 Special Selection, who got a perfect trip; shuffled back last time behind a wire-to-wire winner, we can give him one more chance.  Special Selection has been outrunning his odds in turf sprints for over a year now, and did so again when parlaying that perfect trip into a close 2nd two starts back; problem is, he's likely to be one of the favorites in this spot. Still, he's logical with this class drop.  #5 Indy Sea got back to one of his good ones two back, and confirmed that he is back in form with a solid run over the main track last time.  This is a good spot for the speedy #3 Slamarama to show some life, assuming he still has any, as he projects to be the clear speed in this field.
 
Selections:  7-5-3-6
 
 
Race 7:  #8 Bad Hombre ran several fast races as a 3yo before stepping up to stakes company and stretching out around two-turns; think these one-turn races suit him better, and he did not run poorly in a tough spot first time back this year.  #6 This Hard Land, one of our favorites, is capable of a race that is very competitive with the two favorites in this race. He just doesn't always show up with his best stuff; we have enough questions about the main players in here, though, that we can use him. It was only three starts back that he was able to parlay the right trip into a huge upset over a field of similar quality.  #1 Readthebyline would be almost unbeatable were he to show up and run as well today as he did when last seen, but he sped away over a speed-favoring track that day, hasn't been seen since being claimed out of that race, and faces a tougher crew here.  
 
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#5 Might Ian has improved greatly since being taken by his current connections, and his last two speed figures make him tough in here, but he's another one who hasn't been seen since a game runner-up finish here the first weekend of the meet.  
 
Selections:  8-6-5-1
 
 
Race 8:  #2 Lubash finally gets away from Kharafa and King Kreesa, who are largely responsible for his recent 1-for-8 run, and is clearly the horse to beat as the favorite.  We won't go against him, but it's not as if he can just mail it in against this field.  #1 Compliance Officer has lost a step or two but showed last time that he can still produce under the right circumstances; would prefer a little cut in the ground.  #5 Notacatbutallama has yet to improve upon his 3yo form so far this year, and blew a perfect-trip chance last time when gunned down by Compliance Officer without apparent excuse; still has races that make him tough and could still come forward.
 
Selections:  2-1-5-7
 
 
Race 9:  #1 White Sangria, #2 One Time Only, and #4 Fancy Boss are the three favorites on the ML, and they are the three horses to beat, but there are enough questions surrounding all of them to make this an interesting race to go looking for a better-priced option, and Pace Projector indicates that the three of them may wind up hurting each other up on the pace.  
 
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We'll take a shot against them with #3 Invading Humor, who may have been compromised by trying to rally through some stretch traffic down inside when last seen, and who will appreciate any pace that develops for her in this race. 
 
Selections:  3-2-1-4 
 
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