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TimeformUS Analysis for September 6

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Saturday's Card at Belmont Park
 
Race 1:  #4 Island Candy made a fast pace and tired when back on dirt two back, then was more comfortable  tracking from the outside in sloppy off-the-turfer over 7 furlongs last time.  Drops in for $20k and can use her speed to her advantage in this spot.  #7 South Sound is back up in class after burying weaker with a minimum of fuss at Saratoga, and has run plenty of races that make her a contender in here.  #2 My Place is the ML favorite as she drops down to the level of the claim two starts back, but she's been only 2nd best in each of her last two starts and holds no figure edge on her main competition. 
 
Selections:  4-7-2-6
 
 
Race 2:  #7 Hi Speed Chase makes belated 3yo debut after being entered and scratched twice at Saratoga.  Has a lot of speed when he's right and may take them a long way.  #2 A Touch of Poetry caught a muddy sealed track and a speedy fellow MSW dropdown when in for the price for the first time upstate.  Has kept better company and has enough speed to secure a spot with the pace on the inside.  #6 Americas Guest chased a fast pace over a wet track and tired in the stretch of his debut.  Trainer gets a 95 rating with second-time starters and a perfect 100 with older maiden claimers on dirt.
 
Selections:  7-2-6-9
 
Race 3:  #6 The Big Deluxe cut a solid pace and faded in a race that fell apart late last time, but he's drawn favorably on the outside here in a race that Pace Projector indicates will suit his running style.  104 TFUS Speed Figure earned for game try going a bit longer two back makes him tough.
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Rock-solid veteran #2 Ground Force sat out Saratoga after going back-to-back in the spring, and put up a 104 of his own when closing into a perfect pace setup and rolling clear when last seen.  #1 Station Chief is dangerous in here with his newfound running style, especially if The Big Deluxe gets hooked up on the pace early, but he'll need to improve, and last time was the time to have him.
 
Selections:  6-2-5-1
 
 
Race 4:  #2 Karakorum Legend went to the lead and was outfinished through the stretch when returned from a long layoff upstate.  8yo may have needed that one to shake off some rust, and he likes this distance.  #3 Emkanaat gets class relief here after failing to impact in pair of starts vs. better on turf.  Entry of #1 Kanturk Kid and #1A Precious Metal both have races that make them competitive.  We would prefer the latter were he to start on his own, as he has been effective over a variety of distances and tends to outrun his odds. 
 
 
Selections:  2-3-1A-10
 
 
Race 5:  #6 Candir came clear in the stretch and settled things quickly when making turf debut off the trainer change to Chad Brown upstate.  Takes the next logical step, and Brown gets strong 97 rating with last-out maiden winners coming right back.  #2 Trecastle also impressed when closing down a talented-if-camera-shy Decisive Edge to break his maiden last time.  Trainer is coming off a strong meet upstate.  #5 Dobra Historia is an interesting wildcard for Mott as he makes his 3yo debut on grass.  Made an impression when breaking his maiden over Keeneland's synthetic surface, and tried a couple of tough spots on dirt after that.
 
 
Selections:  6-2-5-7
 
 
Race 6:  #4 Ice Wagon took the worst of it while chasing wide off a slow pace set by ML favorite #7 Brendan G over this track on June 29th, and since then has run in the slop and on grass.  
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#2 Solly's Mischief has been compromised by slow paces most of the summer, and may be facing a similar scenario here, according to Pace Projector.  
 
 
Selections:  4-7-2-3
 
 
Race 7:  All-turf late Pick 4 starts with loaded-looking field of maidens.  Both #3 Royal Squeeze and #8 King of New York were wired by Pletcher firster Designed for War upstate, and while King of New York ran the better race that day, he also got the better trip.  Royal Squeeze appeared to be in need of that start and may come forward quickly.  Both #4 Vision Perfect and #7 Lucky Leroy Brown also ran well enough in their respective debuts to ensure that the first-time starters will have to be able to run a little, but there are a few in here who look interesting. 
 
 
Selections:  3-8-7-4
 
 
Race 8:  #6 Star Channel comes here directly off solid effort over 9 furlongs at Saratoga, and getting out to his favorite distance of 1 1/4 miles figures to only help.  He's going to be tough with his good race, which he runs without fail over this trip.  The only horse we'd be looking against him with is #4 Artic North, who appeared to get back to one of his good ones off the claim after disappointing since his arrival in NY.  #2 Red Vine can win this, but he's been a disappointment at short prices and went down without an excuse last time.
 
 
Selections:  4-6-2-5
 
 
Race 9:  Pace Projector paints an interesting picture of this 1 1/2 mile route for $100k, as all of #2 Slim Shadey, #3 Elnaawi and #6 Red Rifle are expected to be up on the pace.  Assuming that is the case, it may leave things to be decided between #1 Reflecting and #4 Legendary.  Of those two, we'll take Reflecting, who has displayed an affinity for distance in the past, and who may have run better than it looks in finishing last when cut back in distance upstate.  
 
 
Selections:  1-4-2-6
 
 
Race 10: No one to trust in $40k maiden claimer for NY-bred fillies.  We'll look to get alive to #3 Chrissy Girl, #5 Fire Ship and #8 Jacey's Revenge.  Chrissy Girl was a bit headstrong but came up empty in first start back from long layoff at Saratoga, and can do better with that one under her belt.  Fire Ship had excuses both 2 and 3 starts back and could only chase a front-running winner last time.  Isn't likely to find a better opportunity.  Jacey's Revenge is a first-time starter with enough pedigree and a good trainer, so we'll include her somewhere in our play.
 
 
Selections:  5-3-8-9
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, September 6, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, September 6, 2014

Race 7, All 2-year-olds, one mile, turf, 4:13 p.m.

ANIMAL KRACKER (bay colt, Leroidesanimaux—Sweet Theresa, by Strike Smartly) is the first foal out of a mare who in South Africa won the Group 3 Hertz Fillies Mile and was third in the Group 1 S.A. Fillies Classic. Sweet Theresa is a half-sister to Starlit, who won three group stakes and was group 1 placed in South Africa.

Owner: Team Valor International & Albert Frassetto

Trainer: Thomas Bush

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

 

COMMAND CONTROL (gray/roan colt, Smart Strike—Meghan’s Joy, by A.P. Indy) is a half-brother to a trio of runners who have earned black type on the grass: Quiet Harbor, who took the Grade 3 Violet; Seal Cove, who won minor stakes at Saratoga Race Course and Aqueduct Racetrack; and Minister’s Joy, who was third in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf Handicap and on a synthetic track was second in the Grade 3 Ben Ali. Command Control also is a half-brother to Hunting, who took the Grade 3 Stuyvesant Handicap; and Norumbega, victorious in the Grade 2 Brooklyn in June. Their dam placed in three stakes on the dirt at Laurel Park and won four races, including one on the turf.

Owner: Stuart S. Janney III

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: John Velazquez

 

SUPA (bay colt, War Chant—Blended Beauty, by Fusaichi Pegasus) is out of an unplaced half-sister to Splendid Blended, who won the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet and Grade 1 Vanity Invitational Handicap; and Richly Blended, winner of the Grade 3 Gotham and Grade 3 Withers. Blended Beauty has produced two starters, with her lone winner having a maiden victory on the turf to her credit.

Owner: Peter Vegso

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Abel Lezcano

 

ST. LOUIE (dark bay or brown colt, Arch—Seeking an Angel, by Seeking the Gold) is out of a mare who was a distant second in a stakes on the dirt at Monmouth Park. Seeking an Angel is a half-sister to Group 1 Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Hula Angel and Schedule, a two-time stakes winner on the dirt at the Meadowlands. She has produced one previous starter, who has a single win on the grass in eight starts.

Owner: Richard Santulli

Trainer: Alan Goldberg

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.

 

TimeformUS Analysis for September 5

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Opening Day at Belmont Park's Fall Championship Meet

Race 1:  #3 Upward hung up a big 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure in an impressive score over this track back on May 25, which was also the last time he went turf-to-dirt.  #2 Attractive Ride posted back-to-back blowouts when back around one-turn off a short break, including 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure blowout at Saratoga last out.  We'll see if he can keep it up off the claim, but he lands in a race that is projected to favor speed types once again. #1 Italian Rules drops for Jacobson and will need to get back to top form if the top two bring their best stuff.

Selections:  3-2-1-5
 
Race 2:  #4 Percy's Ambition drops again for second start off the layoff, and he has speed.  Trainer has done some of his best work recently with older claimers on dirt (93 rating).  #2 Deimos was on the outside against a strong rail and speed- favoring track in lone dirt start, which came as a 2yo.  He has improved, and will make his first start on the main track since then for a tag.  #3 Robert Noble hasn't had much to offer through first two starts but this is a big class drop and he ran into a blowout winner in lone dirt start.
 
Selections:  4-2-3-1
 
Race 3:  #4 Tout had to steady while in tight early, then rallied through the stretch behind a front-running Pletcher favorite off the layoff at Monmouth.  Has room to go forward, and doesn't have much to find vs. this field.  #2 Point Hope was no match for Classic Sense over a sloppy track going longer at Saratoga, but that horse came back to run another good one while against the grain of an inside, speed-favoring track up there.  New trainer does excellent work off the claim.  #7 March Too has to stretch out, and will likely have to do better than his debut, but he's eligible to do so, and he can be on the early lead in this spot.
 
Selections:  4-2-7-8
 
Race 4:  #10 Dramatize has failed from on the pace in last two starts, but we think she may be better from off of it, and with a fast pace projected for this race, she may have no choice.  Hard to view trainer change as anything more than a lateral move, but the change of scenery may do her some good, and new barn is hot right now.  #7 Thundering Gale stretches out while dropping in price for second start off the claim and is clearly the horse to beat.  #8 Flirtatious Spring takes needed drop in for a tag for the first time.  Has run some of the best figures in the field and is supposed to be tougher in a spot like this.  
 
Selections:  10-7-8-11
 
Race 5:  #1 Glickman was hooked into a fast duel and tired late when second off the long layoff upstate.  Should be more comfortable early in this spot, which Pace Projector indicates will favor runners with speed.  #9 Sir Bond doesn't have much early speed but gets a class drop for the first time, and that alone should make him tough.  Still think #4 Indy Sea is a better turf horse, but he handles dirt well and new trainer gets 98 rating off the claim and perfect 100 rating with claimers down in class.
 
Selections:  1-9-4-5
 
Race 6:  Pace Projector favors the leaders in this 11-furlong turf route, which kicks off the Late Pick 4, and places the two favorites on the ML, #9 Silky and #3 Cloture, at the back of the pack.  Silky finished gamely after being bumped in the stretch last time, and she picks up Castellano for the first time today.  Cloture had little chance to impact the impressive Crown Queen in her most recent start, and she owns the top Late Pace Rating in the field (101), which may give her a better chance of overcoming the pace scenario.
 
Selections:  3-9-4-8

 

Race 7:  #4 Greywalls had scheduled turf debut rained off at Saratoga but stayed in and picked up some experience.  She has an 88 pedigree rating for turf sprints, and her trainer gets an 88 of his own with second-time starters.

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#10 Wall Street Lady took money for her dirt debut and stopped badly after chasing the pace early.  Switches to turf for her second start, a switch that may work for her because she's a half to a 5-time winner on grass.  #3 Misbehavin Miss debuts for Clement, and her dam was a fleet turf sprinter (7 of her 8 career wins, including 5 stakes, came in turf sprints) who earned over $680k in her career. 

Selections:  4-10-3-6
 
Race 8:  Short but competitive field for the first running of the $100k Left Bank.  We have always preferred #5 Pants On Fire as a one-turn-miler type and will lean on him in the Pick 4 as he cuts back in distance to make his third start off the layoff.  Last three one-turn miles have resulted in two wins and a close-up 3rd-place finish, with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 116, 115, 113.  #1 Alpha and #2 Golden Ticket hit the wire together in the 2012 Travers, and either is capable of winning this with something approaching a top effort, but we'll take our chances against them.
 
Selections:  5-2-1-6
 
Race 9:  #7 Whyalwaysme tried a couple of tough spots upstate off the claim. 

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Repeat of 72 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned while contesting a fast pace in lone start at this level will make him tough to beat.  New face #2 Jacob's Here is eligible to handle the switch to grass, and he'll appreciate dropping back down in class.  Dam was a multiple stakes winner on dirt, but she ran to form throughout her career on grass while keeping good company. 

Selections:  7-2-1-4

 

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Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 5, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 5, 2014

Race 7, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, turf, 4:13 p.m.

TAP IT OUT (chestnut filly, Tapit—Great Intentions, by Cat Thief) is out of a sprinter who won the Grade 2 First Flight Handicap and Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Handicap. Great Intentions, who was unplaced in one start on the turf, is a half-sister to Sea Road, who won minor stakes on the turf at Gulfstream Park and Saratoga Race Course and was third in the Grade 3 Royal North on the grass. As a broodmare, Great Intentions has produced three starters, including two turf winners.

Owner: Richard Santulli

Trainer: Alan Goldberg

Jockey: Edgar Prado

 

CONSUMER CREDIT (dark bay or brown filly, More Than Ready—Sally Bowles, by London News) is out of a mare who in South Africa won the Group 2 KZN Fillies Guineas and was second in the Group 1 Allan Robertson Fillies Championship. Sally Bowles has produced one winner – London Citizen, who is stakes placed in Sweden – from two starters.

Owner: Klaravich Stables & William H. Lawrence

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $185,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

MISS BEHAVIN MISS (bay filly, Mineshaft—Unbridled Sidney, by Unbridled’s Song) is out of a turf runner who won four stakes at Churchill Downs and one stakes apiece at Calder Race Course and Pimlico. Unbridled Sidney also was third in the Grade 3 Royal North and is a half-sister to Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Caller One and Grade 2 A Phenomenon victor Prospect Bay. She has produced three starters, with her lone winner having picked up a maiden score on the turf.

Owner: Douglas Devenport

Trainer: Christophe Clement

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

 

ALL IN FUN (chestnut filly, Tapit—Devils Humor, by Distorted Humor) is the first foal out of her dam, a two-time winner on the dirt who is a daughter of Grade 1 Ashland and Grade 1 Mother Goose heroine Fleet Renee. Devils Humor is a half-sister to Stormy Renee, the dam of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprinter winner Hightail.

Owner: Stuart Janney III

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sales history: $200,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

GINGER RUSH (chestnut filly, Speightstown—Victorina, by Delaware Township) is slated to become the first starter out of her dam, who won 10 black-type stakes, including the Grade 3 Azalea. On the turf, Victorina was third in the Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy Handicap and second in a minor stakes at Santa Rosa. Ginger Rush’s second dam is a half-sister C. S. Silk, who won the Grade 1 Just a Game on the grass, and Remember Sheik, victorious in the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby on the dirt.

Owner: Bach Stables

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $90,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

LANA’S FORTUNE (dark bay or brown filly, Harlan’s Holiday—My Pal Lana, by Kris S.) is out of a mare who won the River Memories and Flaming Page, a pair of listed stakes on the turf at Woodbine. My Pal Lana has produced two turf winners from three starters. Lana’s Fortune’s second dam, Palana, was a listed stakes winner in England.

Owner: Fortune Farm

Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart

Jockey: Manuel Franco

Sales history: $40,000 Keeneland November weanling; $70,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.