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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for July 10

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Thursday, July 10

Race 1:  Can only guess at the opener, which goes for 2yos sprinting on turf, only one of whom has prior experience.  Both Todd Pletcher and Wesley Ward saddle a pair in here, and while they're both aces with babies, neither does especially well with their 2yos debuting in turf sprints.  For some info on the new faces:  #2 Eskenformoney is the first foal from a dam who is a half to multiple turf stakes winner Petunia and to Somethinaboutbetty, whose five career wins all came on dirt, but who was multiple stakes-placed on grass.  #7 Isabella Sings is a half to Alaura Michele, a multiple stakes winner over turf, with earning of over $205k.  #3 Cool Comfort and #6 Nicky's Brown Miss are both by Big Brown, who has won at an impressive 23% clip with turf sprinters to this point in his stud career.  
Selections:  7-3-2-1
Race 2:  #4 Grand Strand goes for a trainer whose horses have been running well all meet long and who gets a strong 98 rating with runners going MSW to MCL (from a limited sample); last two TimeformUS Speed Figures are faster than anything any of his opponents has ever run.  #3 Better Man also drops in class for the first time, and his trainer is showing a series of strong ratings with older maiden claimers across several categories.  #7 Alexndeed dropped down last time over a sloppy track and came up short despite sitting a perfect trip behind a three-way pace duel; figures fit, and he drew well on the outside.
Selections:  4-3-7-6
Race 3:  Weak $12.5k claimer for some well-known names who appear to be on the downside at this point.  #1A Sun Bear was claimed out of a tough trip chance at this level two starts back by Jacobson, and he didn't have his best chance last week when sprinting over a muddy track while up in class; projects for comfortable trip tracking up close in a race that favors runners on or near the lead, and Jacobson gets a perfect 100 rating with claimers dropping in class by 50% or more.  Entrymate #1 Romancing the Gold has been badly off form, but he's also down a notch after getting caught up contesting a fast pace that collapsed last time.  #3 Hoppy Do was also close to that pace on June 29th, and he has been in the best recent form of these, overall.
Selections:  1A-3-1-7
Race 4:  #8 Enchanted Dreams endured a very tough trip at this level last time, almost certainly losing a spot or two, and easily could have been second in there; she's been close before while failing to come through, which is a concern, but we'll give her one more after that last one.  
#9 Academy Performance has faced light-years better than this on turf this year and is a clear horse to beat in this spot.  #3 Good Catholic Girl drops down with lasix on after having her debut rained off to dirt, and #2 Crashing Conclave is another dropping to the lowest level of her career; lone start for a tag as a 2yo was her best effort by far.
Selections:  8-9-2-3
Race 5:  Solid allowance for fillies and mares, but it clearly goes through #7 Smashing, who not only has put up three straight strong speed figures to begin her career, but projects to be on a clear early lead in this spot; broke through gate prior to short-priced defeat last time.  
Main danger figures to be #1 Regent's House, who impressed in winning debut with a solid figure and was compromised when stumbling badly at the start last time.  
Selections:  7-1-3-4
Race 6:  #4 Solly's Mischief takes a big drop in class while also getting turned back to a better distance, and figures to have plenty of pace to come after because of the pair of speeds lining up on the outside.  #8 Oldwick is one of those speeds, but he got the best of the draw on the far outside; hasn't won a race since his debut over a year ago, and he's been dropping precipitously recently.  #1 Chief Scout hasn't found his form in his first two starts for these connections but is capable of pulling the right kind of trip in here and has races that would make him competitive.
Selections:  4-1-8-7
Race 7:  Tough to go against ML favorite #8 Wally Did It, who has run the fastest races and who came up just short vs. a strong crew at this level as a new gelding last time.  #6 Brendan G has developed a habit of blowing clear leads on the main track; projects to be the clear speed once again as he switches to grass off the claim.  #3 Flowing Mane has failed to get back to form in a pair of starts off the layoff, but he was running turf races last year that would make him very competitive in here, and he'll be a very interesting price.
Selections:  8-3-6-9
Race 8:  #5 Scarly Charly drops out of the Grade 1 Met Mile, a spot that was always going to be too tough for him directly off of his maiden win; owns TimeformUS Speed Figures of 100+ for all 5 career dirt starts, which is rarefied air in this context.  Stablemate #4 Roman Approval made a promising U.S. debut, running late behind the impressive Bay of Plenty; not the greatest sign in the world that he hasn't been seen since that May 7th effort.  #3 Bernardo started to turn things around with that 100 speed figure maiden win in his 10th career start, and he's held his solid form since then; found a pair of tough spots since easily outfinishing #1 Sinistra back on April 24.
Selections:  5-4-3-1
Race 9:  Trainer Chad Brown has a pair of tough fillies entered here in #5 Granny Mc's Kitten, a stakes-winning 2yo who is making her 3rd start as a 3yo here, and #3 Pink Poppy, not as accomplished as her stablemate but impressive in her own right when running over maidens here opening weekend.  #9 Valseuse is a serious rival for those two after launching a wide run from last behind a pair of next-out winners and finishing gamely last time.  
Selections:  9-3-5-4

TimeformUS Analysis for July 9

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Wednesday July 9th
Race 1:  Have no interest in standing strongly against #7 The Candidate, listed at 4/5 on the ML as he drops all the way down for Chad Brown, who gets perfect 100 trainer ratings with horses dropping from ALW to CLM, with 3yos in low-level claimers on dirt, and with horse making their third start off the layoff, all of which apply.  
#1 Private Irving A is just 1-for-17 but appears the logical alternative (which serves to make The Candidate's position stronger), as he has speed from the rail and has run figures in 4 of his last 5 sprints that fit well in here.  #3 Sky Colors was badly off form when last seen and is just starting back as a 5yo, but he has plenty of back races that make him tough and has made few starts at this lowly level.
Selections:  7-1-3-5
Race 2:  Guess #3 Toy Cannon is supposed to win as he drops into restricted claiming company for the first time since his runner-up finish at Gulfstream way back in March 2013; always seems to be in the mix vs. allowance company without doing enough when it counts.  If we can get the right price on #10 Huge Asset, perhaps we can take a shot with him to post a small upset.   He earned a speed figure for his 3rd-place finish in the NY-bred stallion series last June that makes him competitive with the favorite, and he appeared to have needed that first one back form the layoff after getting into position and then fading through the stretch.  #5 Bold Forest is the most dangerous rival for Toy Cannon, as he has actually run all of the fastest races in the field on our speed figures, and he did not get the greatest trip in the world when failing to get involved in his last race, but he's failed at shorter prices several times himself. 
Selections:  10-3-5-2
Race 3:  Pace Projector for this race indicates that the flow will favor runners up on or near the early lead, and places our top pick, #7 Photon, up in a perfect outside stalking position from the start.  
We don't believe that his last two starts are as bad as they appear to be on paper, as he was part of a fast and strongly contested pace two starts back before tiring and being allowed to fall way back out of contention by his rider once he was beaten, and he was in a super-tough $25k claimer last time; figures to do better trip-wise today, and his new trainer does well with runners making their first start out of her barn (90 trainer rating, albeit with a small sample size).  ML favorite #4 Volastic may be up against it from a pace standpoint, and based on speed figures, he is going to need his very best effort to contend in here, assuming the NY regulars show up. #2 Starship Captain and #3 Road Agent battled each other all the way in 1-2 finish here last month, and are factors once again.
Selections:  7-2-3-4 
Race 4:  Two ML favorites for this race, #11 It's Your Dime and #8 Rufus Ruth, are difficult to endorse at short prices, as they've both had their chances with very good trips, at this level and lower, and failed to get it done.  #13 Freud's Sunset is first AE, and we'll happily take her should she draw in, as she'll be dropping for the first time (Gullo gets a strong 89 trainer rating with horses dropping from MSW to MCL) as she makes her second start off the layoff, and her speed figures from last year are every bit as good as the favorites'.  We have not been fans of #5 Penella, but she may be a dangerous horse switching to turf for the first time, as she has had a couple of siblings who managed to improve their form on turf.   
Selections:  13-5-11-12
Race 5:  #9 From the Point could only be along for 2nd-best after #6 Tempered Threat and #8 Ten Items Or Less engaged in a pace duel on the Belmont Stakes Day undercard; may get a similar setup today with those two rivals set to hook up again, and may be able to do better as he makes his first start off the claim for very sharp connections. 
Selections:  9-6-8-1
Race 6:  #3 Dance Champion raced very greenly first time out before improving greatly in much-the-best win second time out; tough go last time in wide trip against a slow pace.  
#5 Patent has been unlucky a time or two in his own right, and exits that same slow-paced affair as Dance Champion, though he was in a much better position throughout the running while tracking in behind the front-running winner.  #10 Request is a bit of a wildcard as he makes his 3yo debut for Chad Brown; looked good in defeating a solid field of maidens here last fall before bombing in graded stakes company down south.
Selections:  3-5-10-8
Race 7:  Pace Projector tells the story here, as a field full of speed types figures to set the table for the closers.  We'll take #4 Catholic Cowboy on top, as he drops out of some tougher races and has the top late pace rating in the field.  #5 Dyker Beach may be the horse to beat, but he has settled for second-best in 7 of his 15 dirt starts and took advantage of a speed-favoring track when finally putting up his first career win two starts back at Churchill.
Selections:  4-5-7-3
Race 8:  Super-tough allowance with an $85k purse gets a race rating of 111, making it very near a graded stake, and drew a field to match.  We will put #9 Swift Warrior on top, as he may appreciate getting a little turn-back here while making his third turf start of the season and will probably appreciate getting some firmer ground underfoot, should that be the case. Not sure what we'll get from ML favorite #12 Lochte, who ran a few bang-up races in Grade 1 company earlier this year before coming up empty last time; we'll be against him here, while realizing that he could easily beat us. We'll instead use both the #2 Bad Debt, who holds his own regularly with similar competition, and #3 Fredericksburg, who has the adaptability to pull the right trip in here with the main speeds to his outside.
Selections:  9-2-3-7
Race 9:  Finale may be the right spot for #9 Sunrise Kitty, who is favored on the ML as she drops into a restricted claimer (note that while she is up in claiming price from $25k to $35k, she was facing open company last time, as opposed to these non-winners of two races lifetime foes); she won't get many more chances from us after failing in her last four attempts as the favorite.  We're also going to use #7 Radiant Cut, who parlayed a perfect trip into an overdue score last time; and a little of #11 Painted Poney, whose turf debut last time may as well have come in a graded stakes race when compared to today's competition (race rating of 96 last time as opposed to today's 84).
Selections:  9-7-11-2

Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, July 10, 2014

Jon Forbes


Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, July 10, 2014

Race 1, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, turf, 1:20 p.m.

ESKENFORMONEY (dark bay or brown filly, Eskendereya—But for Money, by Not For Love) is slated to become the first starter out of her dam, whose sole win came in a maiden special weight on the dirt at Philadelphia Park. But for Money is a half-sister to Somethinaboutbetty, who won restricted stakes on the dirt at Laurel Park, Aqueduct Racetrack, Pimlico, and Timonium and was second in the Grade 3 Lake George on the turf; and Petunia, who captured turf stakes at Colonial Downs and Delaware Park and placed in the Grade 3 Boiling Springs on the grass and Grade 3 Selima on the dirt.

Owner: StarLadies Racing

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $225,000 Keeneland September yearling


COOL COMFORT (chestnut filly, Big Brown—Singing Sensation, by Coronado’s Quest) is out of a mare who made three starts, winning one race, a maiden special weight on Polytrack at Woodbine. Singing Sensation, a half-sister to Grade 2 Fantasy winner Ruby’s Reception, has produced two winners from as many starters: Earth Zeus, who has won a pair of dirt races in Japan, and Red October, whose lone victory to date has come in a maiden claimer on the dirt at Laurel.

Owner: Ten Broeck Farm Inc.

Trainer: Wesley Ward

Jockey: Abel Lezcano

Sales history: $60,000 Keeneland September yearling; $115,000 OBS April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 seconds, video)


ISABELLA SINGS (chestnut filly, Eskendereya—Isobel Baillie, by Lomitas) is a half-sister to Alaura Michele, who has won a pair of turf stakes at Saratoga: the P.G. Johnson as a 2-year-old and the restricted Nani Rose as a 3-year-old. On Tuesday, Alaura Michele was third in the Grade 3 James Penny Memorial Handicap. Including Alaura Michele, two of three starters out of Isobel Baillie have won, both on the grass. Isobel Baillie herself was stakes placed in France.

Owner: Siena Farm LLC

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Joel Rosario


TimeformUS Analysis For July 6

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Sunday, July 6

Race 1:  #6 Bobby Jo picked up her game off the claim by these connections last year, and ran competitively with better horses throughout the summer; makes third start back from a nice outside post with a big drop in class after facing nine-time stakes winner Winning Image and the 7-for-11 lifetime Galiana.  #1 Coast of Sangria also drops into a better spot after trying tougher off the re-claim by Mike Miceli last time; convincing win vs. similar two starts back.  #3 Love to Score missed the break and was never involved on turf last time; has competitive dirt form and has been facing better, as well.  
Selections:  6-1-3-5
Race 2:  This race shapes up as a two-horse race between #3 Coriander and #7 Morethanawarning. Morethanawarning has never raced this cheap before, and is plummeting all the way down after four straight no-factor efforts vs. entry level allowance foes, and she will appreciate lining up against these horses.  Coriander endured a tough trip when cut back to a sprint last time, hitting traffic in several different spots, and then getting stuck inside through the stretch; she gets a big rider change for this, to go along with her class drop, but faces a tough rival on the drop down.  #6 Send the Limo exits a low-rated (69 TimeformUS Speed Figure) wire-to-wire win vs. maiden claiming company at Monmouth, and projects to be loose on the lead once again here; turf races in NY were disappointing.
Selections:  7-3-6-2
Race 3:  Not much to say about $125k Lynbrook stakes for 2yo NY-bred fillies, as 4 of the 6 entered are maidens, three of those first-time starters.  Won't be surprising if one of the firsters could do better than the 64 and 69 TimeformUS Speed Figures put up by the recent maiden winners in here, and our guess will go to #6 Wonder Gal, who brought $210k after working 10.1 at OBS March, and whose trainer had a strong year with 2yos in 2013.  
Selections:  6-3-1-2
Race 4:  #3 Perfect Dancing was off slowly and trailed all the way around to the top of the stretch before swinging around very wide and finishing well too late behind The Mooche and others at this level last time.  Can do better assuming a clean break and trip, and will be a price.  
#6 The Mooche is the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff and second at this level; had a clean trip but raced on well when ahead of the top one last time, and was a new gelding for that race.  #1 With Expression is logical, but was a no-excuse 3rd behind a longshot winner last time, and #8 Wake Up and Go and #9 Rontos New York are also competitive but were similarly defeated by a huge longshot on June 4th. 
Selections:  3-6-8-9
Race 5:  #4 Giant Fox didn't handle turf at all last time, but made a promising debut on the main track with a late run and gallop-out before running into stakes-bound Bay of Plenty in his second start; in for a tag for the first time on dirt.  #9 Baskets comes back to dirt with blinkers on and drops down to $20k for Rudy, who sports nothing but solid ratings with any and all of those moves:  Turf-to-dirt 87, Claimers Down in Class 100, Blinkers On 91.  Pace Projector indicates that he can make the lead from his outside post.  #3 Master Yank is down again after bombing at odds-on two months ago; 80 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned for his narrow defeat two back makes him tough, if he can get back to it.
Selections:  4-9-3-6
Race 6:  #3 Cotton Pickin has run very well in each of his two starts since being claimed by this outfit, and has done so without the perfect trips pulled by #5 Edie and #2 Starship Pleasant; isn't far off of those rivals based on those races, but will be a much better price once again.  #6 One Penny Piece could easily have taken four in a row dating back to the end of last year were it not for a narrow defeat for $75k at the end of March; back to a better spot after facing a stakes-caliber field off the claim.  
Selections:  3-6-2-5
Race 7:  Perhaps some warning signs with #2 Love to Run being cut in half for his second start off the layoff, but he is unlikely to find an allowance race that he can be competitive in, and he ran a trio of TimeformUS Speed Figures around this time last year that this field would not be able to match; Kimmel gets a strong 91 trainer rating when dropping claimers (as compared to his overall rating of 67), which suggests that he does it with intent.  
#7 Springcourt has come up short at low odds in each of his last three starts, but was claimed from that last one by a very sharp outfit, and may be able to do better this time, just needs some pace.  #5 Dynamical has consistently run TimeformUS Speed Figures in the low 90s on dirt, which makes him a contender, but nothing more than that, so he is tough to take as the favorite on the ML; perhaps he'll pick up his game a little off the trainer change.  #4 Moe Man goes first off the claim for Rudy (98 rating), who has gotten back to winning some races over the past week.
Selections:  2-7-5-4
Race 8:  #9 Middleburg was most unlucky not to win his last start after dueling down the 8/5 favorite through the middle of the race, only to be nailed late by a perfectly ridden winner; still earned the top speed figure in the race, and deservedly so.  #4 Shining Copper improved off the trainer change to Pletcher despite getting an odd ride being held up off of what was a moderate pace; dangerous if going forward again, which is possible.  Interested to see what we get from #3 Deep Speed, who was very visually impressive in posting 108 speed figure win here last month; worried that none of the five to have returned from that heat have confirmed its strength.  
Selections:  9-4-3-5
Race 9:  #1 Crown Thy Good raced on well despite getting stuck behind a slow pace in his debut, and then was likely best last time when taking a sharp wide run through the turn before getting outfinished by a perfect-trip winner (who returned to win again);  should be set for best in third career start; has a strong pedigree to handle this distance on turf.  
#8 Heyaarat set a strong pace in what was a promising turf debut vs. a couple of these last time, and could be dangerous if allowed to get comfortable up front this time.  #12 Day Six was never a factor in his debut, but deserves at least one more chance, considering the female family he descends from, which contains Grade 1 turf winners Bit of Whimsey, Royal Mountain Inn and Miss Josh.  
Selections:  1-8-12-11