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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for July 12

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Saturday, July 12

Race 1:  With four of the six entered for the opener exiting the 4th race from June 19, evaluating that race may go a long way toward giving you a handle on this one.  We were impressed with the late run put in by #3 Grand Rapport to get up in there, as he was last at the top of the stretch and still had work to do at the 1/8th pole, but still managed to close up on the leaders; he clearly has back races that are too tough for these, and having a 3: 2-1-0 record over this distance is another point in his favor.  #2 Zane clipped heels early on and took an inside trip while no threat behind Grand Rapport in that race, but he was very impressive in winning his most recent turf start prior to that one, and he could put his strong late pace rating of 103 to good use with a clean trip.  #5 Kiss of Thunder disappointed last time after running very well in his first three starts of the year; could be given a chance to rebound at the right price.  We would take the chances of #6 Pretension very seriously were he not claimed from his last start (new trainer gets lowly 41 rating off the claim, and is 2 for his last 50 off the claim on turf), as his lone turf route, which came prior to the layoff last year, gives him a chance, and Pace Projector puts him on the early lead here.
Selections:  3-2-6-5
Race 2:  #2 Saythreehailmary's was impressive in breaking her maiden over this track and trip two starts back, and she earned an 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, which is the top dirt figure in the race (none of her opponents has ever reached 80); makes second start vs. winners after racing on gamely while only third-best last time, but faced a couple of tougher foes there.  #5 Daddy's Lil Saint showed enough as a 2yo to merit consideration here, and she's run only on turf so far this year.  #1 Devious Maddy ran well with the best trip when back to dirt off the trainer change last time; will need to run her very best race over fast dirt this time.  
Selections:  2-5-1-3
Race 3:  #5 Petrocelli has been facing tougher than this right along, and he ran well last time while taking charge of a fast early pace before succumbing late; Pace Projector places him in control early once again in a race that favors runners on or near the early lead.  
#4 Beyond Empire was likely best two back when forced to take a five-wide run through the turn, and he did have trouble at the break last time before tiring in the stretch.  #1 Four Directions parlayed a perfect trip tracking a pace duel into an overdue maiden win last time; stretches a little farther in a tougher spot.
Selections:  5-4-1-2
Race 4:  Tough turf allowance for fillies and mares has no shortage of contenders, so we'll take a shot at a price with #5 Malibu Holiday.  She is clearly a better turf horse, so the spate of dirt races won't dissuade us, and she earned speed figures for her three turf races in NY (two of which she won) that fit well in this field.  #3 Love Train switched to turf last time off the trainer change and could hardly have been more impressive in kicking clear strongly through the stretch before being taken in hand prior to the finish; must stretch out for the first time, which is no small thing, especially at a short price.  #1 Lonesome Town has been close in a couple of tough spots recently, but didn't come away unlucky in either of those races; this is a better spot. 
Selections:  5-1-3-4
Race 5:  #10 Startripenterprise's only dirt starts since being claimed by the very sharp Nick Esler have come vs. MSW company, and he was rated back and wide against a gold rail on March 16th, and then caught slop over a mile on May 8th; switches back from turf for this, and Pace Projector indicates that he has the best early speed in the field.  #6 Hampden Fiveone has been unlucky more than once, and he is also dropping in class here while switching from turf to dirt; trainer gets 99 rating with the MSW-to-MCL drop, from a limited sample.  #1 Bryce Bryce Baby can be given another chance as he drops down off the trainer change and layoff for his second career start; had some speed after getting away at the back of the field in his debut.
Selections:  10-6-1-9
Race 6:  One final chance for #7 Ziggy the Great here, as he cuts back to sprint on the turf for the second time since his solid debut win last summer; the only time he's sprinted this year, he was in contention past midstretch in a race that fell apart, and he tired out after dueling for the lead when left in to try the muddy main track last time.  #11 Asset Inflation tired to finish over five lengths behind #3 Archer Hill when they met over this track and trip last month, but he was caught up dueling three-wide that day, while Archer Hill sat it out in a perfect trip; we'll take him to turn the tables this time.  #4 Wake Up in Malibu has flashed some ability on the main track, and switches to turf with some pedigree, being out of a dam who went 5-for-7 in her career over turf, including a couple of stakes wins.  #2 Three for Me switches to turf off the claim, and he did not run poorly in a solid $40k claimer the only other time he tried grass.  
Selections:  7-11-3-2
Race 7:  #11 My Four Rewards ran a couple of turf races vs. claiming company last summer that fit well in this field, and she did not get the most comfortable trip in the world either time; taking her at a price as she drops back down in class for her second start off the layoff.  #5 Eddy's Time has some hang in her, but she managed to take over after a perfect trip and hold on to the end to get her long overdue maiden win last time; think the shorter distance of this race may suit her well.  #8 Eurokay by Me is just 1-for-40 lifetime, but she's run two of her best races since being claimed by this trainer, and she has received a couple of questionable rides in those races.  #4 Dattts Da Boss and #10 Saratoga Karaoke are both contenders, but they both took advantage of fast paces that collapsed in their recent good efforts.
Selections:  11-5-8-10
Race 8:  Strong coupled entry from David Jacobson here is tough to go against, as both #1 Cousin Michael and #1A Groomedforvictory look tough in this spot.  Won't try to beat them but will be interested to see what we get from #3 Associate as he continues his comeback with a class drop; caught very wide throughout the running in a very tough spot off that long layoff.
Selections:  1-1A-3-4
Race 9:  The Grade 2 Bowling Green, run over 1 1/2 miles on the Widener course, drew a well-matched field of seven, which is likely to scratch down to six with #4 Chamois cross-entered to an easier spot over the same distance at Delaware Park on Saturday.  
This race appears to go directly through the 6/5 ML favorite, #5 Grandeur, who recently finished 4th in the Grade 1 Manhattan and 3rd in the Grade 1 Man O' War and takes a bit of a step back in class here.  He ran TimeformUS Speed Figures of 113 and 112 in those two races, and while those figures make him competitive in here, they actually give him no edge at all over several of these horses.  He has better races than that to get to, but he'll likely have to in order to come out on top in this race, and we thought that he was just picking up pieces at the end of the Manhattan last time while finishing a no-factor 4th.  We have no argument with him as the horse to beat, but we think we can do better than taking him at a short price. Instead, we will be looking to beat Grandeur in this spot.  
The second choice on the ML is #3 Boisterous.  Boisterous is, like Grandeur, a logical horse in this race, and he is going to be very tough if he shows up here with his best stuff.  The problem with him is that he hasn't appeared to have his best stuff yet since being privately purchased and sent to Todd Pletcher's barn for his last four starts, and he has always been a horse who is at his best with a little "give" in the ground.  We also have never thought that he was at his best at this kind of distance.  Unless it rains, in which case we would move him up, we will stand against Boisterous on top. 
We want to try #1 Hangover Kid on top in this race.  He figures to be a playable price in here and is not a horse who gives you concerns over distance, as he has run very well over 1 3/8 miles several times in the past and done so in some tough spots. He has also managed to run TimeformUS Speed Figures on par with the two most recent figures earned by Grandeur, and he bounced back from a no-show effort at Keeneland with a strong runner-up effort at Monmouth last month.  We think Hangover Kid is dangerous in the Bowling Green at a square price, and we like that he reunites with the hot-riding Jose Lezcano for this. He will be the focus of our play.
The other horse for us is #7 Reflecting, who actually turns back out of a 2-mile race, one in which he was an unlucky loser at a big price after failing to gain clearance at a crucial point in the stretch.  He is a typical slow-developing runner from the Phipps/Shug McGaughey operation, and he is also the field's lone two-time winner over 1 1/2 miles.
Selections:  1-7-5-3
Race 10:  Bit of a guess in wide open finale, but #8 Molly Jordan returns form the layoff with a class drop, and her half-brother, Sandy'z Slew, has been a very effective turf sprinter since making the switch.  #5 Lakeview Lady drops to a better spot after getting caught up in a couple of fast paces vs. better; she feels like the horse to beat as she makes her second start off the layoff.  
There have been some whispers surrounding #12 Home to Carrowkeel, who was scratched from a dirt race earlier in the meet, so we'll see what we get if she starts here; sire Big Brown is off to a good start with turf sprinters. 
Selections:  8-5-12-4



TimeformUS Analysis for July 11

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Friday, July 11

Race 1#3 Rigby is the horse to beat in the opener, and he only figures tougher with Pace Projector placing him in charge of the early pace, but he's been hard to trust for a while now, and when last seen, he did not look good when never offering a challenge as an odds-on favorite.  We'll try to beat him with #6 Buckeye Heart, who has been unlucky several times during his current losing streak and gamely outfinished Rigby for 2nd when they matched up at the end of May.  #4 Straight Fax may be all done, but he's capable with his best race, and showed some late determination to get up for 3rd last time.

Selections:  6-3-4-5

Race 2#1 Giant Slayer didn't have much to offer in his debut, which came over turf, but so far this year, Clement has won with three of six maidens switching from turf to dirt in their second start; plenty of pedigree to suggest this surface will agree with him (91 pedigree rating), as his half-sister Welcome Guest was Grade 3-placed on dirt, and his dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 dirt winner Political Force.  #5 Stockholder raced greenly and then finished with interest in his debut earlier in the meet and rates to improve for the experience, though his trainer has been quiet here this summer, his horses underperforming when they've appeared.  #3 Sublime and #7 Successful Runner are the ML favorites, and they've run the fastest races so far, but they've also had their chances, and neither is particularly scary at a short price.

Selections:  1-5-4-3



Race 3#5 Wine Burglar has run some of the best turf races in this field, and she got a long-overdue win last time despite having to swing very wide to the stretch from off the pace; found right kind of spot for first start against winners.  #6 Quick as a Bunny couldn't do much with a very good trip tracking an 80/1 shot on the lead last time, but that was a much better field, and she can do better vs. this one.  #3 Funky Munky Fever endured a tough trip on turf three starts back when unable to find anywhere to run in the stretch, and then came running very late at a huge price in a stallion series race last time; heading the right way.  #2 Wraith is the wildcard, as her dirt form makes her the one to beat, but it is unknown whether she can reproduce that form on grass.

Selections:  5-2-6-3

Race 4#5 Granny's Kitten is a full sister to Grade 1 turf winner Kitten's Dumplings, who was a debut winner routing on grass; trainer one of the few who excels at getting 2yos to win first-time out over route distances. 


#10 Cabo de Hornos is an Ohio-bred with some pedigree, as his dam was Group 3-placed in England and made over $163k on turf overall.  #12 Reality debuts for Pletcher/Castellano, and his dam was a stakes winner, and graded stakes-placed, over both turf and dirt, but she was better over sprint distances, and her 7 foals to date have not accomplished much (only 2 are winners to this point).  #3 Security Risk is out of Smuggler, who won multiple Grade 1s on dirt, but she gets turf from sire War Front.  

Selections:  5-10-3-8

Race 5:  No one to trust in this two-life claimer, but a pace battle may develop between #7 Probably and #9 Mononoke, which would give class dropping #8 Wisdom of Oz the best chance she's had in a while.  


#4 Cajun Wedding was a no-excuse 2nd behind the now 2-for-50 Bluesixtyfour after a perfect trip two starts back, but is back into a restricted race here after facing open claimers last time.

Selections:  8-4-9-7

Race 6#7 Pilatus and #10 Knox both had clean runs into a fast contested pace on May 25th but couldn't parlay that scenario into a win at this level; unlikely to get another set-up like that today, and, while they can win, they aren't good horses to take short prices on. 


We'll instead try #9 Deimos, who chased and tired in a turf sprint off the layoff but may be the speed of this matchup as he drops in class for the first time.

Selections:  9-7-10-5

Race 7#1 Artic North is taking a big class drop here after finding himself behind a slow pace on Belmont Stakes Day; unlikely to find a much better spot than this one.  #9 Favor Factor is the main danger, as he has back races that can compete with Artic North, and he endured a very tough trip when dropped to this level last time, coming away a very unlucky loser that day.

Selections:  1-9-4-8

Race 8#1 West Hills Giant acted up prior to his turf return last month and then didn't run his race; he is better than that, handles dirt, and lands in a race containing plenty of speed, which should play to his benefit over this elongated sprint distance.  #4 Weekend Hideaway acquitted himself very well over a mile in a tough spot last time, and he did not get the cleanest of trips two starts back; dangerous.  #5 Amberjack has not been seen since failing to complete the Big Apple Triple last August in the Albany; think he's better going shorter, but he will need something approaching his best right off the bench in this spot.

Selections:  1-4-5-2

Race 9#9 Corinthian Summer has now lost four in a row as the favorite, but he's has reasonable excuses in all three 2014 starts, including the last one, as he was forced into a long battle from a wide position, which is always a bad combination over nine furlongs on the inner; won't be getting any more chances after this one.  #2 Ostentatious Me raced greenly and wide when unable to contend in his turf debut, which came in a tough spot; this is better.  

Selections:  9-2-1-6



Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, July 11, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, July 11, 2014

Race 3, All 2-year-olds, six furlongs, turf, 4:02 p.m.

SECURITY RISK (bay colt, War Front—Smuggler, by Unbridled) is out of the 2005 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly Smuggler, who won that year’s Grade 1 Mother Goose and Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. She has produced two winners to date from four starters. Smuggler is the only black type earner from five starters out of Inside Information, the 1995 Champion Older Female who won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and five other Grade 1 races in her career.

Owner: Phipps Stable

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Joel Rosario


GRANNY’S KITTEN (bay colt, Kitten’s Joy—Granny Franny, by Grand Slam) is a full-sister to Kitten’s Dumplings, who won last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, and to Granny Mc’s Kitten, who last summer at Saratoga took the P.G. Johnson for 2-year-olds. All three starters out of Granny Franny are winners. Granny Franny herself won three races, all over Turfway Park’s Polytrack surface.

Owner: Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey

Trainer: Michael Maker

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.


ESCONDIDO (dark bay or brown colt, Eskendereya—Kamaal, by Irgun) is out of a mare who was third in a minor stakes at the Meadowlands as a 2-year-old. Her lone win in 10 starts came in a maiden claiming race on the dirt, also at the Meadowlands. She has produced three winners from seven starters, including Cave’s Valley, who won the Dover and Whirling Ash on the dirt at Delaware Park as a 2-year-old, and Getaway Guy, who took the Tom Ridge on Presque Isle Downs’ Tapeta surface. Escondido was the second most expensive of 49 yearlings by Eskendereya who sold at auction in 2013.

Owner: Alto Racing

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $370,000 Keeneland September yearling


RUBY’S LOVE (bay colt, Not For Love—Ruby Rubles, by Scarlet Ibis) is out of a sprinter who won the Grade 3 Bed o’ Roses Handicap. All four of her starters have won, with the best being Chelsea Barton, who was third in the Miss Shenandoah, a sprint stakes at Charles Town. Ruby’s Love will attempt to become Ruby Rubles’ first winner on the turf.

Owner: Matthew Schera

Trainer: James Lawrence II

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Sales history: $60,000 Fasig-Tipton Timonium yearling


REALITY (bay colt, Super Saver—Dianehill, by Danehill) is a half-sister to Splash Point, who won the Group 3 UAE 2000 Guineas on Meydan Race Course’s Tapeta track. Their dam won a pair of sprint stakes: the Princess of Palms on the dirt at Turf Paradise and the Stravinsky on the grass at Keeneland. She placed in graded stakes on both surfaces. Reality’s second dam, Very Subtle, won a trio of Grade 1s: the Hollywood Starlet, the Fantasy, and the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. 

Owner: WinStar Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $80,000 Keeneland November weanling; $150,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 3/5 seconds, video)


TimeformUS Analysis for July 10

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Thursday, July 10

Race 1:  Can only guess at the opener, which goes for 2yos sprinting on turf, only one of whom has prior experience.  Both Todd Pletcher and Wesley Ward saddle a pair in here, and while they're both aces with babies, neither does especially well with their 2yos debuting in turf sprints.  For some info on the new faces:  #2 Eskenformoney is the first foal from a dam who is a half to multiple turf stakes winner Petunia and to Somethinaboutbetty, whose five career wins all came on dirt, but who was multiple stakes-placed on grass.  #7 Isabella Sings is a half to Alaura Michele, a multiple stakes winner over turf, with earning of over $205k.  #3 Cool Comfort and #6 Nicky's Brown Miss are both by Big Brown, who has won at an impressive 23% clip with turf sprinters to this point in his stud career.  
Selections:  7-3-2-1
Race 2:  #4 Grand Strand goes for a trainer whose horses have been running well all meet long and who gets a strong 98 rating with runners going MSW to MCL (from a limited sample); last two TimeformUS Speed Figures are faster than anything any of his opponents has ever run.  #3 Better Man also drops in class for the first time, and his trainer is showing a series of strong ratings with older maiden claimers across several categories.  #7 Alexndeed dropped down last time over a sloppy track and came up short despite sitting a perfect trip behind a three-way pace duel; figures fit, and he drew well on the outside.
Selections:  4-3-7-6
Race 3:  Weak $12.5k claimer for some well-known names who appear to be on the downside at this point.  #1A Sun Bear was claimed out of a tough trip chance at this level two starts back by Jacobson, and he didn't have his best chance last week when sprinting over a muddy track while up in class; projects for comfortable trip tracking up close in a race that favors runners on or near the lead, and Jacobson gets a perfect 100 rating with claimers dropping in class by 50% or more.  Entrymate #1 Romancing the Gold has been badly off form, but he's also down a notch after getting caught up contesting a fast pace that collapsed last time.  #3 Hoppy Do was also close to that pace on June 29th, and he has been in the best recent form of these, overall.
Selections:  1A-3-1-7
Race 4:  #8 Enchanted Dreams endured a very tough trip at this level last time, almost certainly losing a spot or two, and easily could have been second in there; she's been close before while failing to come through, which is a concern, but we'll give her one more after that last one.  
#9 Academy Performance has faced light-years better than this on turf this year and is a clear horse to beat in this spot.  #3 Good Catholic Girl drops down with lasix on after having her debut rained off to dirt, and #2 Crashing Conclave is another dropping to the lowest level of her career; lone start for a tag as a 2yo was her best effort by far.
Selections:  8-9-2-3
Race 5:  Solid allowance for fillies and mares, but it clearly goes through #7 Smashing, who not only has put up three straight strong speed figures to begin her career, but projects to be on a clear early lead in this spot; broke through gate prior to short-priced defeat last time.  
Main danger figures to be #1 Regent's House, who impressed in winning debut with a solid figure and was compromised when stumbling badly at the start last time.  
Selections:  7-1-3-4
Race 6:  #4 Solly's Mischief takes a big drop in class while also getting turned back to a better distance, and figures to have plenty of pace to come after because of the pair of speeds lining up on the outside.  #8 Oldwick is one of those speeds, but he got the best of the draw on the far outside; hasn't won a race since his debut over a year ago, and he's been dropping precipitously recently.  #1 Chief Scout hasn't found his form in his first two starts for these connections but is capable of pulling the right kind of trip in here and has races that would make him competitive.
Selections:  4-1-8-7
Race 7:  Tough to go against ML favorite #8 Wally Did It, who has run the fastest races and who came up just short vs. a strong crew at this level as a new gelding last time.  #6 Brendan G has developed a habit of blowing clear leads on the main track; projects to be the clear speed once again as he switches to grass off the claim.  #3 Flowing Mane has failed to get back to form in a pair of starts off the layoff, but he was running turf races last year that would make him very competitive in here, and he'll be a very interesting price.
Selections:  8-3-6-9
Race 8:  #5 Scarly Charly drops out of the Grade 1 Met Mile, a spot that was always going to be too tough for him directly off of his maiden win; owns TimeformUS Speed Figures of 100+ for all 5 career dirt starts, which is rarefied air in this context.  Stablemate #4 Roman Approval made a promising U.S. debut, running late behind the impressive Bay of Plenty; not the greatest sign in the world that he hasn't been seen since that May 7th effort.  #3 Bernardo started to turn things around with that 100 speed figure maiden win in his 10th career start, and he's held his solid form since then; found a pair of tough spots since easily outfinishing #1 Sinistra back on April 24.
Selections:  5-4-3-1
Race 9:  Trainer Chad Brown has a pair of tough fillies entered here in #5 Granny Mc's Kitten, a stakes-winning 2yo who is making her 3rd start as a 3yo here, and #3 Pink Poppy, not as accomplished as her stablemate but impressive in her own right when running over maidens here opening weekend.  #9 Valseuse is a serious rival for those two after launching a wide run from last behind a pair of next-out winners and finishing gamely last time.  
Selections:  9-3-5-4