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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Belmont Analysis Sunday May 25

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #4 Tiz Dark is 2/5 on the ML for Pletcher after making a promising debut here a couple of weeks ago.  He certainly ran well enough there, and earned a solid figure for the effort, but we are very interested in #3 Sendario, another second-time starter, but one who figures to have benefited greatly from his debut.  Sendario raced greenly while outrun in that slow-paced sprint, but he was running at the end and galloped out strongly.  
We think Sendario is eligible to come way forward here, and will take a small shot with him against the favorite.
Selections:  3-4-5-1
Race 2:  #4 Precarious has proven form over this distance, has the positional speed to get any kind of trip, and ran very well to just miss over this track and trip last time.  We think she should be favored in this race, and will take her over the Clement second-time starter, #5 Seda Francesa, and #1 Concise, who projects to be on the lead in a race that favors that running style.
Selections:  4-5-1-2
Race 3:  #6 Off My Cloud has run all of the fastest races in here, save #4 Happy Recap's March 15 win over an intensely speed-favoring track, and she picks up Castellano in her first start off the claim by a very sharp trainer (84 rating off the claim, 100 going route-to-sprint).  
#1 Painted Poney buried a weak field with an easy front-running trip here opening weekend, but that was only her second start on dirt, and she is our other horse.
Selections:  6-1-4-3
Race 4:  Both #1 Elroi and #8 Trainingforsuccess emerged from Race 2 on May 4th with excuses and are players in this race, but we are more interested in a couple of other horses in here.  #7 Mark My Way was all potential in two turf starts last year, and can reasonably be expected to have developed further during his winter break.  We will take him off the layoff, and also use #5 Birchwood Road, who ran much better last year than his 1-for-6 record would indicate.
Selections:  7-5-8-1
Race 5:  If nothing else, there is enough speed entered in this race to anticipate a fair running, and we are going to hope that #3 Buckeye Heart can finally catch the right scenario to take advantage of.  He is an effective closing sprinter on his best day, and this race figures to set up for him with speed toward the inside in #1 Tummel and #2 Upward, and speed outside from #5 Rigby.  #4 Define is in good form as the ML favorite, and any pace that develops helps his cause, as well, but Buckeye Heart is going to be tough for us to resist at a square price.
Selections:  3-4-1-5
Race 6:  #2 Moon Back More was scratched from what appeared to be a likely spot earlier in the meet, which doesn't thrill us, but he still has run the fastest races of this group, and the distance poses no problem.  #1 Letsfaceitjohnny and #7 Beau Who appear to be the logical alternatives. 
Selections:  2-1-7-4
Race 7:  #3 Amulay would be very hard to beat here if we are off the turf. Otherwise, we will try #2 Go Olivia Go, switching to turf off the claim.  She was in solid form all winter, has more tactical speed than her main rivals, and ran respectably on turf in April.  #7 Onthekisser and #9 Dance With Gio are the ones to beat, but are both closers in a race lacking much pace.
Selections:  3-2-7-9
Race 8:  #4 Daring Dancer has been highly impressive in taking each of her first three career starts, and doesn't figure to be hindered by added distance here considering her pedigree and running style. One of the horses behind her in the Appalachian last time, #1 Recepta, has a legitimate chance to turn the tables on her here, however, and may be the right kind of price, as well.  Recepta was trying a wide sweeping run through the turn in the Appalachian while Daring Dancer was getting a perfect ground-saving trip, and with her inside draw over this distance on the inner, she could pull the right trip.
Selections:  1-4-7-3
Race 9:  #10 Knox had his scheduled turf debut rained off earlier in the meet, and may suffer the same fate a second time, but we're on board if this one stays on.  #6 Pilatus was second best to a runaway winner when dropped down at Gulfstream in March; figures tough in here if we're on the turf, as does #11 School Yard, who has been close more than once at around this level, and starts for an underrated trainer.
Selections:  10-6-11-7

Belmont Analysis for Friday May 23

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #4 Money Fan is down to the lowest level yet after tiring on the chase behind a 6/5 favorite here last week; has consistently run the best figures in this field, and is unlikely to find a better spot.  #6 Ignatius will be our other horse, as he faced much tougher in his debut, and now switches over from synthetic, a move that has worked a couple of times already this meet for this trainer. 
Selections:  4-6-5-1
Race 2:  #1 Hit Squad ships in for a dangerous trainer off of a non-effort at Pimlico.  If she shows up here with any of his three efforts prior to that she is going to be tough.
#2 Island Candy has enough pedigree to handle the switch to grass, and she has dangerous speed for a streaking trainer.  #3 Sundae School moved back to grass and ran well enough to be competitive here while giving futile chase to odds-on Nickerdoodle last week.
Selections:  1-2-3-5
Race 3:  Pace Projector favors runners on/near the lead, which is supposed to make both #1 Romancing the Gold and #3 Seeker tough here, but they both enter with question marks (Seeker has distance questions to answer, while Romancing the Gold is dropped below the level of his recent claim off of a dismal effort seven weeks ago).  We like the form of both #4 Springcourt and #5 Hoppy Do, but since they're both closers, we'll split the difference and take the tracker, #6 I Want You to Know.  
Selections:  6-4-5-1
Race 4:  #5 Corinthian Summer endured a very tough trip in his return from a long layoff and emerged an unlucky loser.  
We'll take him over the other Gulfstream shippers, #6 Dividend, who is lightly raced and eligible to improve, and #3 Romans Paradise and #4 Aheadofthecurve, both dropping back down in class.
Selections:  5-6-3-4
Race 5:  #7 Mei Ling appeared to finally put things together in posting impressive win here opening day.  This will be tougher, but she was well within herself throughout that romping win, and her trainer scores a perfect 100 Trainer Rating with last out maiden winners.
#5 Ballylee has landed in a pair of difficult spots since highly promising debut victory and deserves a chance to deliver on her potential.  
Selections:  7-5-4-2-6
Race 6:  Not much to go on here, as outside of recent well-connected maiden winners #2 Scatcapade and #6 Tasmona, there are no turf winners in the field, and only #1 Go West Marie has even run on grass to this point (though she faced a very tough field here on May 11th).  We'll take second-time-starter Tasmona on top, and use Scatcapade, as well.
Selections:  6-2-1-7
Race 7:  Layoffs abound in this elongated turf sprint, which may send you into the arms of ML favorites #9 Gombey Dancer (first time turf after some disappointing recent efforts on the dirt) and/or #7 Golden Rifle (winner vs. cheaper here opening weekend), as they have recency.  We have enough questions about the two of them to look elsewhere, and will hope that one of either #3 Bluegrass Springs, who won both turf sprints last year for Linda Rice, or the speedy #6 Image of Disco are ready to go off the bench.  
Selections:  3-6-7-4
Race 8:  #6 Touchofstarquality has much potential, and takes the next step here vs. some seasoned rivals who should give him a nice test.  #7 Escapeformreality closed out his solid 3yo season with a pace-controlling win in the nine-furlong Albany at Saratoga.  He has the speed to pull a comfortable trip here, but trainer's rating off of layoffs is cause for pause (46 rating in first start after a layoff).
Selections:  6-2-3-7
Race 9:  #8 Sophie's Style had troubled debut that was hard to miss, so expect her to get bet here, but she should fare better with a clean trip.  #1 Camden Jane's best career effort came sprinting on turf in her debut last summer, and she is back to a turf sprint for the first time since off the layoff.  #6 Tordita switches to turf with pedigree to handle it, and is first off the claim for the red hot Bruce Brown, while #4 Aunty Pearl sprints on grass for the first time after improving with a turn back in distance over synthetic last time.  
Selections:  8-1-4-6-11

Belmont Analysis for Thursday May 22

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  Lack of real options in the opener, and Pace Projector has #2 No Nukes tracking #1 Scare City early, clear of the rest.  
We'll take No Nukes on top, as he did have a tough trip last time and gets a big trainer change to Jason Servis, who gets perfect 100 trainer ratings across several relevant categories. 
Selections:  2-1-3-7
Race 2:  #2 Bridget Moloney owns nice versatility, which may serve her well in this spot with several speed types to her outside, and owns TimeformUS Speed Figures that are comparable to the favorites' in this field; game finish after surprisingly rated back to last here a week ago.  #6 Tizarocket is the horse to beat dropping in class for top connections, but she's one of the speeds and has been disappointing overall.  
Selections:  2-6-1-3
Race 3:  #4 Queen Nine has big speed when right, and faced much stronger competition than this surrounding her three wins last year.  
She is well posted on the outside here with a suspect favorite down on the rail, and her race off the layoff last year was a strong one with a very tough trip, which resulted in an unlucky loss.  #1 Heir to Dare is the heavy favorite, but will have the speed of Queen Nine to deal with and is not the kind of horse to trust at a short price.  If those two hook up, #2 E Z Passer owns the best Late Pace rating in the field and would be the danger.  
Selections:  4-1-2-5
Race 4:  Without much interesting turf form to go on, a new face may be preferable, and Linda Rice has one in first-time starter #7 Alabaster City, a City Zip gelding with a strong 88 pedigree rating for turf sprints, with her go-to rider named. Both #2 Stenson and #5 Latigo Trail switch to turf with some pedigree, and they have flashed enough potential on dirt to have a look in this race. 
Selections:  7-5-2-6
Race 5:  #1 Darnley Bay was done-in by a dead rail when re-claimed by Bruce Levine two starts back, and had no chance with runaway winner Coast of Sangria, who was heavily bet last time.  Projects for a nice inside tracking trip in this compact field.  
Selections:  1-4-3-2
Race 6:  Wide-open MSW on grass offers no shortage of options and may come down to trips, so let price be your guide.  #1 Mobilize has run well in all three turf starts and has room to improve as she returns to NY with lasix for the second time.  
#3 Knacque earned some strong TimefirmUS Speed Figures as a 2yo, and she ran well off the layoff when falling just short after battling for the lead in the stretch.  She was outfinished late by #7 Tarnished, who has a big pedigree and much upside, as does #10 Wonder Upon a Star.  
Selections:  1-10-3-7
Race 7:  Even-money ML on the Jacobson entry of #1 Pure Attitude and #1A Writingonthewall, and they are not easy to stand against in this field.  May not see Pure Attitude, who is wheeling back 4 days after tasting defeat at Monmouth, but his entrymate is taking a big class drop and is more than capable.  #4 Bound by Humor is trying to race himself back into shape after a long layoff and is not impossible.  
Selections:  1A-1-4-7
Race 8:  #7 Middleburg has flashed much potential to this point, and turns back here after gamely resisting going longer last time; trainer tends to have them ready off the layoff.  #6 Front was very sharp in his seasonal debut, posting a new top speed figure in convincing win; faces tougher competition here, but will be a fair price.  #8 Calm Pacific has never taken a step back on our figures, but faces some tough competition here and doesn't figure to be value.  
Selections:  7-6-8-5
Race 9:  Solid NY-bred N1x going 1 1/8 miles on the inner, a course and distance that place early position at a premium. That's just one of the reasons why we prefer #1 Storm, who drew perfectly on the inside with positional speed, and he is finally back to grass, where he belongs.  #9 Morning Calm makes his first start vs. fellow state-breds here, and figures tough based on his Gulfstream form, but we also think #10 Mental Iceberg has a chance to really improve after being taken back behind a walking pace in his return to grass last time; he will have to work out a trip from a tough post, however.
Selections:  1-9-10-2



Belmont Analysis for Wednesday May 21

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #2 Offlee Catty ran well enough to win this race with a 70 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her debut, and didn't get the cleanest trip in the world last time despite an alert break.  Trainer gets a strong 92 rating with blinkers-on, and Pace Projector indicates that this filly has the best early speed in this matchup.  
TimeformUS Trainer Ratings box for our selection in Race 1.  
Both #5 Baby B and #6 Official are dropping in class while turning back, the former while switching from turf to dirt, the latter with a trainer change to David Jacobson (100 trainer rating with that move), but we'll take the improved #4 Mary's In Utopia as our other horse, as she enters here third off the layoff after earning the top figure in the field last out.  
Selections:  2-4-6-5-3
Race 2:  We were impressed with #4 Brilliant Command in both starts last year, as he displayed ability despite not getting an easy trip in his debut, and then raced much better than it looks despite having no chance from behind a slow pace after that; returns from the layoff for a red-hot trainer.  #8 Dr. Abramson appeared to be prepping in speed-favoring Keeneland synthetic sprint debut, and now stretches out on grass, which his pedigree suggests will suit him better (TimeformUS Pedigree Rating of 84 for turf routes; his dam is a sister to Spring House, a multiple graded stakes winner who made over $1.1 million on grass).   
Race Rating shaded in dark red in PPs for #8 Dr. Abramson denotes a strong speed bias on that day.  Click here for more information on TimeformUS Bias Indicators.
#5 Knight of Valor also figures to improve in his second start after finishing with some interest from far back in his debut.
Selections:  4-8-5-6-3
Race 3:  #1 Imagine Tomorrow blew away a field of two-life claimers with a strong speed figure three starts back, and has been placed in way over her head in her next two starts; Jealous, the horse she left behind on February 1st, has subsequently confirmed the strength of that performance by finishing close up to the ML favorites in this field,
#5 Purling and #6 Rettalfa, and then posting a blowout win of her own.  #7 Bridgetta returns from a long layoff for the streaking Bruce Brown and has races to get back to that make her almost unbeatable in here, but those efforts came in 2012, and it doesn't seem that she could be any kind of interesting price in this race. 
Selections:  1-6-7-4-5
Race 4:  Tough turf sprint for NY-breds brings several contenders back from layoffs, so we'll take one with recency in #6 Jitney.  Just 2-for-10 on turf in her career, we think she's better than the bare record indicates, and Pace Projector for this race has several up there together early, which would help her late kick.  #5 White Sangria is the horse to beat off a pair of strong efforts at Gulfstream, the last one just failing to stop the late run of recent stakes winner Free as a Bird.  #9 Neck of the Moon is a logical contender off the layoff for Chad Brown, though she was consistently over-bet last year.  
Selections:  6-5-9-10-7
Race 5:  #5 Sea Trial has only been OK though three career starts, but she does figure to appreciate getting to try a dirt route (95 pedigree rating) for the first time, and if her main rival is the #1 Palestrina, then that may make this an even better spot.  We wouldn't overlook the two turf-to-dirt runners entirely, as #2 Rapid Repair and #4 Lusaka may move forward on the main track--Lusaka in particular, as she was part of a contested pace that collapsed in her last start, and has more of a dirt pedigree, being by Distorted Humor and out of a dam who is a half-sister to 2yo champion Halfbridled.  
Selections:  5-4-1-2-1A
Race 6:  #3 Legendary raced on well to be a clear second-best to the impressive Draw Two over 1 1/2 miles at Keeneland in his stateside debut, and along with #2 Papy, figures to have landed in a likely spot here.  Papy picked up the pieces in an unimpressive off-the-turf route here opening week, and he was a perfect-trip winner going long when last on grass. #1 Away Game is at least one to consider as he tries 1 1/4 miles and turf for the first time with a perfect 100 pedigree rating for the assignment.  
Selections:  3-2-1-6-4
Race 7:  Pace Projector indicates that there could be a contested pace in this race, which would benefit #2 Another Incident, who impressed breaking her maiden from off the pace in a one-turn mile at the end of last year and has been in vs. some tougher horses in Florida since then.  Cuts back a bit here for a trainer off to a good start at the meet.
TimeformUS Pace Projector, shown here for Race 7, displays the expected running positions after 1/4 mile for sprints; 1/2 mile for races one mile or over.  To see Pace Projector for all of today's Belmont card, click here to purchase our PPs for just $3.
#6 Star Magnolia stepped it way up first off the claim, routing maiden claimers in a race that went faster than older male claimers two races earlier on the card; distance may be a challenge for her with some other speed signed on.  
Selections:  2-6-5-3-7
Race 8:  #8 Filimbi finished ahead of several of these despite a less-than-clean trip at Keeneland last out, and does appear to be the one to beat after arriving here having won three of her last four in France.  We will use her, while taking a shot against her with #3 Gathering, who has flashed plenty of potential despite her quirks, and was given a no-chance trip and ride when behind Filimbi last time.  
Selections:  3-8-5-6-2
Race 9:  #3 Vagarious has been in some tough spots on the main track, and now switches to turf, which figures to suit him, as his dam, whose only career start was a winning effort on grass, is a half-sister to the multiple Grade 1 winner Perfect Sting, who made over $1 million on grass.  #2 Macgone had plenty of excuses in his open-company debut and can do better here.  #7 Point Roll disappointed as a heavy favorite over good ground vs. NY-breds at Aqueduct, but he had some issues in that race, and is going to be very tough in here if running back to his debut.  
Selections:  3-2-7-6-8