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TimeformUS Analysis for October 24

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Friday October 24

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

 
Race 1:  #2 Ballerina Belle has posted a pair of triple-digit TFUS Speed Figures on turf, to go along with four figures in the 90s.  The rest of the field combined has but 2 figures at 90 or above, both of those belonging to the 1-for-29 #3 Rock N Cozy.  Wins have been hard to come by for Ballerina Belle , but she's run well right along this year, including last time, when buried in traffic through the stretch. With the end of turf season on the horizon, she will drop in class.  She's likely to be too much for these horses, but if she stubs her toe, the most likely upsetters appear to be either #6 Dattts Da Boss, who is off the claim by the ever-dangerous Mike Maker, or the lightly raced #9 Verismilitude.  
 
Selections:  2-6-9-1
 
Race 2:  #7 Jazz Player landed in a tough MSW first time out vs. a pair of rivals who sped away from the field en route to posting big TFUS Speed Figures of 105 and 104.  Jazz Player did what he could on the chase, but he couldn't go with those horses, and he settled for a 3rd-place finish that is better than may be suggested by the margin of defeat.  Faces another good field here, but, interestingly, projects to be on the early lead.  #4 Guggenheim gave game chase to the Grade 1 sprinter The Big Beast last time and posted a 93 TFUS Speed Figure in clear runner-up effort.  Not sure why we haven't seen him in the 138 days since then, but a similar performance makes him a player.  #2 Private Label ran well enough in dirt debut as a 2yo, and he was in close attendance to a fast pace that collapsed in his turf return.  He is dangerous and may be an interesting price.
 
Selections:  7-4-2-8
 
Race 3:  #3 More Front looked quick working a furlong in 10.1 while on his wrong lead prior to bringing $400k back in May, and he debuts for one of the best trainers in the game with first-time starters on grass.  His stablemate, #6 Prima Storm, has valuable experience in the form of a solid third place finish here last month.  #2 Flight to Quality may wind up wanting more ground (his unraced dam is a sister to the Grade 1-winning turf router Meteor Storm), but he is a Speightstown debuting for Pletcher.  #11 Amazon King debuts for Chad Brown, who has had an incredible year with first- time starters on grass, but he gets a lackluster Breeding Rating of 66 for turf sprints.
 
Selections:  3-6-2-11
 

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Race 4:  Distance may prove key in this 10-furlong turf route, as none of the nine entered for turf has posted a win beyond 1 1/8 miles.  That win belongs to #1A Sublime, who wired a field in his turf debut last month, but he was loose all the way in there and the runners immediately behind him have not flattered that effort in subsequent starts.  At least #8 Make a Decision has a recent solid race going 1 1/2 miles here, and that effort appears legitimate, as he was in close attendance to a fast pace throughout.  Chad Brown pair of #4 Request and #5 Breakeven Analysis are OK, but nothing more than that, and would not be interesting from a wagering perspective at their ML prices.  
 
Selections:  8-1A-4-5
 
Race 5:  #6 Harlans Six drops in class for her return to dirt and has found a likely spot in a race where 7 of the 10 lining up against her are first-time starters.  Trainer is in the midst of making a name for himself on this circuit.  #8 Zo Zo has been a bust for a top trainer, but she was caught up contesting a fast pace on the drop last time.  Most interesting firsters are on the outside in the form of #10 Runningtheshow, who gets a strong Breeding Rating of 94 for dirt sprints, and #11 Gethot Stayhot (88 Breeding Rating).
 
Selections:  6-8-10-11

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Race 6:  #5 Ziggy the Great gets one final chance with this needed drop in class, and he has actually run better than it looks in his last two starts.  Projects to be up close in a race favoring frontrunners, and his trainer does well with horses dropping from allowance to claiming (90 rating) and taking blinkers off (100 rating).  #9 Kodiak Kody also takes a big drop in class (Race Ratings for three turf races 97, 95, 94, vs. today's 85) for an underrated trainer, and he figures tough in this field if ready off the layoff.  Have always felt that #7 Sunbio was best as a turf sprinter, and he also figures to fit well at this level.
 
Selections:  5-9-7-11
 
Race 7:  #6 Interior Secretary took some money but raced greenly after ducking in badly toward the gap in his debut behind the impressive Pletcher 2yo Ostrolenka.  Figures better for having that experience behind him.  #8 Organic Gemini has a strong Breeding Rating for dirt routes (93), and it's interesting that he has attracted Castellano, who has taken just 5 mounts for Asmussen over the past year, but trainer rating with runners debuting in dirt routes (24) leaves something to be desired.  #7 Navy Blue has a foundation, with 5 races already under his belt, and we like him switching back to dirt, which figures to suit his frontrunning style.  
 
Selections:  6-8-7-1/1A
 
Race 8:  #9 Round has hinted at ability from day one, and he finally puts races together after enduring layoffs after each of his first two starts.  Liked his last effort quite a bit. Forced to swing around widest through the turn after getting bumped back to last at the start.  Recent turn-back for #4 Big Guy Ian has yet to pay dividends, but he was in awfully tough in the Amsterdam, and he was wide against an inside-speed-favoring track last time.  #3 Duval has been in improved form for a top trainer, and he has the kind of running style that could play well in this field.  #5 Dyker Beach is tough to take on top at 2-for-22 with ten 2nds, but he's a better sprinter and likes to be in the mix in the stretch.  #10 Moose Vasko is a true wild card as he returns from a long layoff with no dirt form, but he switches to an excellent trainer and has run some fast races over synthetic in Canada.
 
Selections:  9-4-5-10
 
Race 9:  Racing office tries again with this group of solid turf runners who are out of conditions and who have been rained off at least twice recently.  If they get to run it this time, we will once again go to #8 War Correspondent, who banished a field at Monmouth in his stateside debut as if stakes quality, and did so with a 102 TFUS Speed Figure.  #1A Abtaal arrived here early in the year with strong European form, and he impressed immediately in circling a field en route to a much-the-best score at Gulfstream.  Tried graded stakes company for his next start and took the worst of it when wide throughout in a race with an inside flow.  #9 Great Attack ran up to his best off the Jacobson claim last time to gun down #10 Tetradrachm, but he may need to do even better if the top 2 show up.  
 
Selections:  8-1-9-3
 
Race 10:  #15 Thrown of My Own raced very greenly in Saratoga debut, then showed more speed only to wind up in a pace duel with an impressive winner in off-the-turf return.  We'll take him on top if he gets in.  Otherwise, #6 Chase This Bandit could only chase along the rail in that same off-the-turf race before coming along for second-best at the end, and with a lack of first-time starters from potent debut barns in the field, we'll take him.  #5 Black Tide attracts Castellano for his turf debut, and he will appreciate the turn-back in distance after getting tired going longer last time.
 
Selections:  15-6-5-1
 
 
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Big Apple Babies for Friday, October 24, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Friday, October 24,2014

Race 3, 2-year-olds, 6 furlongs, turf, 1:52pm

WHITE BAY (chestnut colt, Speightstown – Resort, by Pleasant Colony) is the ninth foal from his multiple graded stakes placed dam. Resort just shy of $250,000 while picking up blacktype in races like the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks and G1 Gazelle. Four of her six foals to race are winners, led by G2 Peter Pan winner Sightseeing (Pulpit), an earner of over $500,000. Sea Island (Pulpit) topped $340,000 with stakes placings including the G1 Gazelle. Peter Island (Tapit), the three-year-old out of Resort, was a debut winner in March of this year. Although White Bay failed to meet his reserve as a yearling, it is worth noting that the price was well clear of the average price for a Speightstown.

Owner: Robert S. Evans
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Sales history: $250,000 Keeneland September yearling RNA

 

FLIGHT TO QUALITY (bay colt, Speightstown – Forever After (GB), by Sadler’s Wells) is from a family that has achieved considerable success worldwide. His unraced dam is a half-sister to four stakes winners, including two G1 winners. Polish Summer (Polish Precedent) earned over $1.8 million, largely thanks to his win in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic. The multiple French Group winner was also G1 placed in Hong Kong. Meteor Storm (Bigstone) achieved his greatest success in the United States, including a win in the G1 Manhattan, earning over $1.4 million. Additional members of the family are G1 winners Winsili, Stand to Gain, Raintrap, and Sunshack. Forever After’s only foal to race, Western Sadler (Mr. Greeley) is a two-time winner who hit the board twice in four starts at two.

Owner: Three Diamonds Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Sales history: $40,000 Fasig-Tipton March two-year-old in training (One furlong in 10.1: video)

 

MORE FRONT (bay colt, War Front – Wildlife Festival, by Seeking the Gold) is the third foal from his dam, an unraced daughter of G2 Churchill Downs Distaff winner Dream Scheme. Two of her prior foals have won with one winner, Rakete (Broken Vow). Dream Scheme a daughter of the G1 winner Dream Deal, making her a half-sister to MG1W Clear Mandate. Dream Deal, in addition to being a half-sister to MG1W Crème Fraiche, is the matriarch of a strong family. Major winners to descend from her include To the Victory (champion), Strong Mandate (G1), To the World (G2), Newfoundland (G3), etc.

Owner: Waterford Stable
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Sales history: $100,000 Keeneland September yearling; $190,000 OBS March two-year-old in training RNA (One furlong in 10.2: video); $400,000 Fasig-Tipton May two-year-old in training (One furlong in 10.1: video)

 

ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

 

TimeformUS Analysis for October 23

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Thursday October 23

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1: #1 Trainingforsuccess, #2 Call Wil, and #6 Sonnyandpally all dropped in class recently and came through with improved performances.  Of those, we'll give preference to Call Wil, who impressed in winning with something in hand and earned the top TFUS Speed Figure of that trio (92).  Trainingforsuccess was a big price when third at this level last time, but he faced the toughest field (92 Race Rating vs. today's 87), and he clearly fits well here.  If we're off the turf, #7 Piscesbymoonlight figures tough with his speed, but we'll also use #3 Mad Props.  He was showing improved form earlier this year, and he lost all chance at the start off the layoff last time.
 
Selections:  2-1-6-4
 
Race 2:  #4 Jacapo chased off the pace while 3-4 wide throughout in his debut, which took place on a day when the rail was the place to be.  Expect better with that experience behind him for a trainer who pulls perfect 100 ratings with second-time starters and with the MSW to MCL drop.  #2 H Man is a first-time starter with a strong 93 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints, and he is a half-brother to 3 multiple winners, from a dam who won 5 times, including her debut over this track.  #5 Chasing Bubbles had good speed and stayed stubbornly when dropped to this level for his second start and can factor once again.
 
Selections:  4-2-5-1
 
Race 3:  #7 Summer House flashed good speed in her debut before being overwhelmed by the impressive Jacaranda and allowed to fall back out of contention through the stretch.  Has a solid 90 Breeding Rating for dirt routes, and stretching horses out on dirt is one of the things Mott does without peer.  #6 Money'soncharlotte landed in a tough spot in her debut, and looked a bit green while chasing down on the rail.  Can do better for a trainer who has a perfect 100 rating going sprint to route.  #2 Fast Retailing brought $1 million as a yearling on pedigree (stakes winning dam is a sister to a pair of graded stakes winners, including Miss Shop, who won the Grade 1 Personal Ensign routing on dirt).  Shug has shown more intention with his first-time starters over the past year or so, but this one will have to be close to tight to get the full mile right off the bat.  Mott's other runner, #5 Profess, switches over from turf, but she now has two starts behind her, and she is a half to the talented dirt router Pulpit. 

 

Selections:  7-6-2-5 
 

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Race 4:  On turf, we prefer the form of #11 Capitan Futuro to that of #12 Horvat Clan. Capitan Futuro will have to run that horse down, but he's getting the right class drop here, and the trainer change is a big one. For his part, Horvat Clan is an obvious danger to take them all the way after a gutsy try on a fast pace last time, and his job may be easier in this field.  If we're off the turf, #3 Conspiracy becomes the horse to beat, but we could try to beat him with #4 Golden Itiz.  He's run the fastest races, and we much prefer him as a main-track horse. 
 
Selections:  11-12-5-9
 
Race 5:  #6 Coast of Sangria took the worst of it while wide throughout on a day when speed and the inside were dominant.  Goes first off the claim for dangerous connections and had been in form that will make her very tough in here.  #5 Kilnockagain stayed gamely to get back on the winning track off the claim for the always dangerous Jason Servis.  Went off form for a while, but she once appeared to be a horse of some potential and is a threat if Servis has her going the right way again.  #2 Inaflash had little trouble dispatching weaker with a perfect trip last time. She was off the layoff there and can factor here if taking another step forward.
 
Selections:  6-5-2-9

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Race 6:  Some interesting firsters in this 2yo sprint for NY-bred fillies, but they have #7 My Super Nova to beat.  She earned a 92 TFUS Speed Figure for her strong debut effort contesting a fast pace, and she tried stakes company over a muddy track last time.  #12 Sonora (97 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints) is a half to three multiple winners and six-figure earners from a stakes-winning dam, and she debuts for a trainer who can have them ready first time out (92 rating with 2yo first-time starters).  #8 First Service tired after chasing a fast pace first time out, but she was bet that day, and she gets a trainer change to Mike Hushion for this (99 rating first off trainer change).
 
Selections:  7-12-8-2
 
Race 7:  #11 Ironicus impressed with a pair of strong closing kicks on turf in Florida over the winter, and he may benefit most if the projected fast pace develops in front of him here as he starts back from a layoff (owns clear Late Pace rating edge with a 97).  #3 Bigger Picture has to step up in class, but we were impressed with his late run, as well, and he did it over yielding ground last month.  Wasn't facing runners of this caliber in that spot, but he appeared cut out to be a talented horse early on, and his new trainer can get one to come all the way around.  On dirt, #2 Encryption is the clear horse to beat, but it will be interesting to see who stays in to face him, as there are several entered for turf who have back form on dirt to compete with him.
 
Selections:  3-11-1A-5
 
Race 8:  #10 Cousin Michael has lost three straight at short prices since being listed as a vet scratch prior to a start at Monmouth back on June 6th, and he was once again listed as a vet scratch here on October 5th.  Playing against him as the ML favorite, primarily with #4 This Hard Land and #8 Gridley Here.  This Hard Land appears to have lost the early speed he once possessed, but he can still run races that would be too much for this group, and he drops in class for his second start back off a short break.  Gridley Here has run the two best races of his life since being switched to dirt recently, and he still has upside, where the rest of these do not.  
 
Selections:  4-8-6-1
 
Race 9:  If finale stays on turf, #10 Ainteasybeinggreen will drop in class for second start off the long layoff, and she has the kind of speed that will make her tough on a field like this one.  #14 Maura's Pass will have to draw in, but she's been unlucky more than one in the trip department on turf, and is better than she looks on paper.  On dirt, #12 Warm Heart figures tough as she drops down for her second start off a break of almost 2 years.  Ran well in her debut way back, when forced to contest the pace while racing along a dead rail.  
 
Selections:  10-14-12-3
 
 
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Big Apple Babies for Thursday, October 23, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Thursday, October,2014

Race 3, 2-year-old fillies, 1 mile, dirt, 1:52pm

FAST RETAILING (bay filly, Malibu Moon – Shop Again, by Wild Again) is the fifth foal from her stakes-winning dam. The three prior starters are all winners, including a pair of stakes winners. Precocious Power Broker (Pulpit) won the G1 FrontRunner as a two-year-old and the G2 Indiana Derby at three on his way to earning over $860,000. Fierce Boots (Tiznow) broke her maiden in her second start at two and won this year’s Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct. The family is also responsible for Miss Shop (G1 Personal Ensign) and Trappe Shot (G2 True North) among others. Fast Retailing was the second most expensive yearling by her popular sire sold last year.

Owner: Andrew Rosen
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Sales history: $1,000,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

GENRE (bay filly, Bernardini – French Park, by Ecton Park) is a daughter of a multiple graded stakes winning two-year-old. French Park debuted in the fall of her two-year-old season with a victory and promptly won the G3 Pocahontas and G2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs. Genre is her fifth foal. Three prior foals have run, all of whom are winners.

Owner: Cheyenne Stables
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Sales history: $200,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

MY SWEET GIRL (bay filly, Bernardini – Bit Of Whimsy, by Distorted Humor) is a homebred for connections who have had considerable success with the family, albeit on turf. Dam Bit Of Whimsy earned over $550,000 in her career, with her biggest victory coming in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Her first foal, Caroline Thomas (Giant’s Causeway) whose biggest win to date is the G2 Lake Placid. My Sweet Girl is just the second foal out of Bit Of Whimsy, whose family also includes G1Ws Miss Josh, Royal Mountain Inn, MGSW Highland Springs, and GSW Highland Crystal.

Owner: Joyce B. Young
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

 

ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction