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TimeformUS Analysis for October 23

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Thursday October 23

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1: #1 Trainingforsuccess, #2 Call Wil, and #6 Sonnyandpally all dropped in class recently and came through with improved performances.  Of those, we'll give preference to Call Wil, who impressed in winning with something in hand and earned the top TFUS Speed Figure of that trio (92).  Trainingforsuccess was a big price when third at this level last time, but he faced the toughest field (92 Race Rating vs. today's 87), and he clearly fits well here.  If we're off the turf, #7 Piscesbymoonlight figures tough with his speed, but we'll also use #3 Mad Props.  He was showing improved form earlier this year, and he lost all chance at the start off the layoff last time.
 
Selections:  2-1-6-4
 
Race 2:  #4 Jacapo chased off the pace while 3-4 wide throughout in his debut, which took place on a day when the rail was the place to be.  Expect better with that experience behind him for a trainer who pulls perfect 100 ratings with second-time starters and with the MSW to MCL drop.  #2 H Man is a first-time starter with a strong 93 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints, and he is a half-brother to 3 multiple winners, from a dam who won 5 times, including her debut over this track.  #5 Chasing Bubbles had good speed and stayed stubbornly when dropped to this level for his second start and can factor once again.
 
Selections:  4-2-5-1
 
Race 3:  #7 Summer House flashed good speed in her debut before being overwhelmed by the impressive Jacaranda and allowed to fall back out of contention through the stretch.  Has a solid 90 Breeding Rating for dirt routes, and stretching horses out on dirt is one of the things Mott does without peer.  #6 Money'soncharlotte landed in a tough spot in her debut, and looked a bit green while chasing down on the rail.  Can do better for a trainer who has a perfect 100 rating going sprint to route.  #2 Fast Retailing brought $1 million as a yearling on pedigree (stakes winning dam is a sister to a pair of graded stakes winners, including Miss Shop, who won the Grade 1 Personal Ensign routing on dirt).  Shug has shown more intention with his first-time starters over the past year or so, but this one will have to be close to tight to get the full mile right off the bat.  Mott's other runner, #5 Profess, switches over from turf, but she now has two starts behind her, and she is a half to the talented dirt router Pulpit. 

 

Selections:  7-6-2-5 
 

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Race 4:  On turf, we prefer the form of #11 Capitan Futuro to that of #12 Horvat Clan. Capitan Futuro will have to run that horse down, but he's getting the right class drop here, and the trainer change is a big one. For his part, Horvat Clan is an obvious danger to take them all the way after a gutsy try on a fast pace last time, and his job may be easier in this field.  If we're off the turf, #3 Conspiracy becomes the horse to beat, but we could try to beat him with #4 Golden Itiz.  He's run the fastest races, and we much prefer him as a main-track horse. 
 
Selections:  11-12-5-9
 
Race 5:  #6 Coast of Sangria took the worst of it while wide throughout on a day when speed and the inside were dominant.  Goes first off the claim for dangerous connections and had been in form that will make her very tough in here.  #5 Kilnockagain stayed gamely to get back on the winning track off the claim for the always dangerous Jason Servis.  Went off form for a while, but she once appeared to be a horse of some potential and is a threat if Servis has her going the right way again.  #2 Inaflash had little trouble dispatching weaker with a perfect trip last time. She was off the layoff there and can factor here if taking another step forward.
 
Selections:  6-5-2-9

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Race 6:  Some interesting firsters in this 2yo sprint for NY-bred fillies, but they have #7 My Super Nova to beat.  She earned a 92 TFUS Speed Figure for her strong debut effort contesting a fast pace, and she tried stakes company over a muddy track last time.  #12 Sonora (97 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints) is a half to three multiple winners and six-figure earners from a stakes-winning dam, and she debuts for a trainer who can have them ready first time out (92 rating with 2yo first-time starters).  #8 First Service tired after chasing a fast pace first time out, but she was bet that day, and she gets a trainer change to Mike Hushion for this (99 rating first off trainer change).
 
Selections:  7-12-8-2
 
Race 7:  #11 Ironicus impressed with a pair of strong closing kicks on turf in Florida over the winter, and he may benefit most if the projected fast pace develops in front of him here as he starts back from a layoff (owns clear Late Pace rating edge with a 97).  #3 Bigger Picture has to step up in class, but we were impressed with his late run, as well, and he did it over yielding ground last month.  Wasn't facing runners of this caliber in that spot, but he appeared cut out to be a talented horse early on, and his new trainer can get one to come all the way around.  On dirt, #2 Encryption is the clear horse to beat, but it will be interesting to see who stays in to face him, as there are several entered for turf who have back form on dirt to compete with him.
 
Selections:  3-11-1A-5
 
Race 8:  #10 Cousin Michael has lost three straight at short prices since being listed as a vet scratch prior to a start at Monmouth back on June 6th, and he was once again listed as a vet scratch here on October 5th.  Playing against him as the ML favorite, primarily with #4 This Hard Land and #8 Gridley Here.  This Hard Land appears to have lost the early speed he once possessed, but he can still run races that would be too much for this group, and he drops in class for his second start back off a short break.  Gridley Here has run the two best races of his life since being switched to dirt recently, and he still has upside, where the rest of these do not.  
 
Selections:  4-8-6-1
 
Race 9:  If finale stays on turf, #10 Ainteasybeinggreen will drop in class for second start off the long layoff, and she has the kind of speed that will make her tough on a field like this one.  #14 Maura's Pass will have to draw in, but she's been unlucky more than one in the trip department on turf, and is better than she looks on paper.  On dirt, #12 Warm Heart figures tough as she drops down for her second start off a break of almost 2 years.  Ran well in her debut way back, when forced to contest the pace while racing along a dead rail.  
 
Selections:  10-14-12-3
 
 
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Big Apple Babies for Thursday, October 23, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Thursday, October,2014

Race 3, 2-year-old fillies, 1 mile, dirt, 1:52pm

FAST RETAILING (bay filly, Malibu Moon – Shop Again, by Wild Again) is the fifth foal from her stakes-winning dam. The three prior starters are all winners, including a pair of stakes winners. Precocious Power Broker (Pulpit) won the G1 FrontRunner as a two-year-old and the G2 Indiana Derby at three on his way to earning over $860,000. Fierce Boots (Tiznow) broke her maiden in her second start at two and won this year’s Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct. The family is also responsible for Miss Shop (G1 Personal Ensign) and Trappe Shot (G2 True North) among others. Fast Retailing was the second most expensive yearling by her popular sire sold last year.

Owner: Andrew Rosen
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Sales history: $1,000,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

GENRE (bay filly, Bernardini – French Park, by Ecton Park) is a daughter of a multiple graded stakes winning two-year-old. French Park debuted in the fall of her two-year-old season with a victory and promptly won the G3 Pocahontas and G2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs. Genre is her fifth foal. Three prior foals have run, all of whom are winners.

Owner: Cheyenne Stables
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Sales history: $200,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

MY SWEET GIRL (bay filly, Bernardini – Bit Of Whimsy, by Distorted Humor) is a homebred for connections who have had considerable success with the family, albeit on turf. Dam Bit Of Whimsy earned over $550,000 in her career, with her biggest victory coming in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Her first foal, Caroline Thomas (Giant’s Causeway) whose biggest win to date is the G2 Lake Placid. My Sweet Girl is just the second foal out of Bit Of Whimsy, whose family also includes G1Ws Miss Josh, Royal Mountain Inn, MGSW Highland Springs, and GSW Highland Crystal.

Owner: Joyce B. Young
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

 

ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

TimeformUS Analysis for October 22

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Wednesday October 22

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #7 Time for Harlan and #4 Quarla both ran well when 2nd and 3rd at this level here back in June, and they have been in some tougher situations since then.  Time for Harlan has more positional speed and has faced tougher in her other two turf races, including the last one, which came in a race that featured a solid early pace that was collapsing late.  #1 Wavell Avenue drops in class for the first time and stretches out in distance for a hot trainer.  Raced a bit greenly in turf debut upstate, and projects to the early leader in this spot.
 
Selections:  1-7-4-2
 
Race 2:  #1 Outer Orbit has shown improved form on grass and gets the right drop back down in class after chasing a fast pace and tiring in a race that was dominated by closers.  Projects to be more comfortable on the early lead in this spot.  #6 Chow Fun was empty when last seen, without apparent excuse, and returns for half the price after a short break.  She's the horse to beat if she can bounce back.  #8 Bartiromo has tailed off since leaving Chad Brown's barn back in June, and drops again after failing to impact for $50k last time.  Like Chow Fun, her best race makes her tough, but she's one we'll be against if the ML price holds up.
 
Selections:  1-6-8-9
 
Race 3:  #3 Keen's Cupla is one of the slower dirt runners in the race to this point on our figures, but we think he may be quite a bit better than he's been able to show.  Tough trip chasing wide throughout the running back on July 21st, and he had little chance when steadied out to the back of the field and then racing 4-to-5 wide on an inside-favoring track at Saratoga last time.  #5 Greg's Fourwheeler made a promising debut before trying to stretch out for his second start.  Like that he was given some time after his last race, and he is eligible to be an improved horse at a price.  #1 Ziggy Moondust flashed big speed in his main track debut last time, and #6 Man of Mystery came through with a good try, and earned the top TFUS Speed Figure in the field, in his debut last month. 
 
Selections:  3-5-1-6
 

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Race 4:  #7 Clean Eleven made a promising debut for Chad Brown way back in May of 2013, and she may be set for better making her second start back from an extended layoff.  #6 Wraith has improved since being turned back to sprint recently, running well while second best in three straight starts.  Think she's the horse to beat, but she needs to come through with a win soon.  #1 Prize Taker may not be in a perfect position, upon her return from a layoff, as far as the projected pace is concerned, but she has run well enough several times in the past and is a square price on the ML.
 
Selections:  7-6-1-3
 
Race 5:  #2 Lunar Tales drops back down in class after having his start off the re-claim washed off the main track.  Suffered an unlucky loss at this level two back after missing the break and being forced into a long wide run.  #6 Bajan Summer faced a tougher overall group for the level last time (94 Race Rating, as compared to today's 88), and he was late to come clear in the stretch before finishing up gamely in there.  #8 Greeley Pack caught traffic at a crucial point when last at this level back in August.  He can compete with these horses with his best race, and he'll be a price.  #4 Saltine Warrior has been best sprinting on grass and figures tough with this class drop. 
 
Selections:  2-6-8-4

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Race 6:  #6 Jesses Giant Dunk has been at his best vs. cheaper horses to this point, but he fits well in this field and projects to have some pace in front of him for a hot trainer.  #4 Wildniteattheopera has to stretch out for the first time, and do so directly off a maiden win, but he has run well in both starts to date and holds all of the upside in this field.  #1 The Spotted Wonder has been in career-best form recently, and he spent plenty of time racing along the tiring inside paths here on October 4th.  #8 One More Chief may not want to take on the added distance he gets today, but he fits well in this field and has a nice outside post. 
 
Selections:  6-4-1-8
 
Race 7:  #3 Sky Painter has improved her TFUS Speed Figures in every start so far (77-87-90-92-93) and may be set for her best in her third start as a 3yo after being stymied in traffic last time.  #1 Seda Francesa was also in that September 20th race here, and she never did come clear of the traffic in the stretch, and never had a chance to run.  #2 Love and Marriage has flashed plenty of potential in her first two career starts, and her win last time may be even better than it looks, with Trakus posting a much faster final time than the official clocking (1:41.18 vs. 1:43.12).
 
Selections:  3-1-2-11
 
Race 8:  #3 Writingonthewall has maintained good form all summer for top connections, and he has a versatile running style, which allows him to adapt to any pace scenario.  #1 Cuantos didn't draw well on the inside, but he takes the next logical step after posting an impressive N1x win here last month, and he has plenty of upside.  #4 The Rhythmisright has dangerous speed and is a threat to take this field all the way if he can grab early control.  
 
Selections:  3-1-4-5
 
Race 9:  #9 Queen to Be takes a big class drop for Pletcher after a pair of solid closing efforts out of town, and there is enough speed signed on in this race to set things up for her.  #7 Sheriffa has disappointed overall, but she was a convincing winner on the drop last time, and her new trainer has done some excellent work off the claim (80 rating).  #2 Manhattan Gin drops with speed, always a dangerous combination, and she has the top Spotlight Figure in the field (85).  
 
Selections:  9-7-2-5

 

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Big Apple Babies for Sunday, October 19, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Sunday, October 19,2014

Race 5, 2-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 2:54pm

SEEKING (dark bay/brown filly, Mizzen Mast – Looking Afar, by Broad Brush) is a half-sister to G2 Go for Wand winner Nefertini. Nefertini picked up additional blacktype on a trio of other occasions, all on dirt. The earner of better than $310,000 broke her maiden on the grass upon debut. Their multiple stakes placed dam is from the Phipps family of Seeking the Gold, Fast Play, and Survivalist, among others. Looking Afar is the dam of three other winners from six total starters.

Owner: Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Sales history: $95,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

LUCKY SONG (chestnut filly, Unbridled’s Song – Caminadora, by More Than Ready) is the first foal from G3 winner Caminadora. Caminadora broke her maiden as a two-year-old in her fourth start, second on turf. She went on to take the G3 Regret going 1 1/8 on turf as a three-year-old. Second dam Stoneway was a stakes winning dirt sprinter who took the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes.

Owner: Bridlewood Farm
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Sales history: $195,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

MOZAMBIQUE GOLD (bay filly, Northern Afleet – Hishi Once More, by Touch Gold) is the third foal from her dam, one of which is a winner, and the first to run in North America. Hishi Once More earned nearly $400,000 in Japan, where purses are high, and counted the Ariake Tokubetsu Stakes, going roughly 5 furlongs on turf, as her biggest victory. Second dam Hishi Natalie earned over $2.3 million in Japan, where she was a four-time Group winner ranging from 7 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Hishi Natalie is a full sister to Blacksburg, a stakes winning juvenile at Hawthorne and a two-time graded stakes winner on the turf in Southern California.

Owner: James Covello, Joseph Bulger, and James Dolan
Trainer: George Weaver
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Sales history: $65,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

MYSTICAL CHARM (chestnut filly, Hard Spun – Mystic Lady, by Thunder Gulch) is a homebred for the same connections who campaigned her dam, $1.1 million-earner Mystic Lady. Versatile Mystic Lady was already a stakes winner on dirt and G2 placed on turf by the conclusion of her 2-year-old campaign. She retired as an eight-time stakes winner, five of which were graded. Mystical Charm is her sixth foal, all of whom have run, including two winners, one of which found their success on the grass. Mystic Lady, a half to two other stakes horses, hails from the family of Fourstardave and Fourstars Allstar.

Owner: Lee Lewis
Trainer: Mark Hennig
Jockey: Dylan Davis

 

BEEN HERE BEFORE (chestnut filly, Tapit – Connie Belle, by Storm Cat) is the fourth foal from her turf-stakes winning dam. Two prior starters have won, including two-time turf victor Call First, a ¾ brother to Been Here Before. Connie Belle is a daughter of G3 Arlington Heights Oaks winner Minister’s Melody, which makes her a half-sister to G1 Wood Memorial winner Bob and John.

Owner: Darley Stable
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Manuel Franco

 

Notes: Strict Compliance is a half to stakes winner Tiree. Her dam, Diva Dyna, is a half to turf G2 winner Unitarian. Lox’s dam, Whitefish, is a half to a trio of turf stakes horses in Keertana, Snow Top Mountain, and Diversy Harbor.

 

Race 7, 2-year-old fillies, 6 furlongs, dirt, 3:56pm

RIGHT DECISION (bay filly, Bernardini – Flourish, by Distorted Humor) is the first foal from her dam, a winner on both turf and dirt. Flourish is a half-sister to a pair of multiple G1 winning millionaires in Tates Creek (Rahy) and Sightseek (Distant View), the former of whom excelled on dirt and the latter on turf.

Owner: Juddmonte Farms
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Manuel Franco

 

OVERPREPARED (bay filly, Quality Road – Daily Special, by Dayjur) is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Shadow Cast (Smart Strike) and one additional stakes-placed runner. Shadow Cast broke her maiden sprinting on dirt in her debut before going on to excel as a router. Her biggest career victory came in the G1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga as a four-year-old.

Owner: Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Sales history: $310,000 OBS March 2-year-old in training. One furlong in 10.2: video

 

ZEALOUS WILDCAT (dark bay/brown filly, Bluegrass Cat – Zealous Connection, by Unreal Zeal) is homebred half-sister to a trio of stakes winners. Dam Zealous Connection was unbeaten in three lifetime starts, all at two, including a victory in the G2 Landaluce. Her hat trick of stakes offspring is led by Here’s Zealous (Dehere), who earned over $450,000 in winning races like the G3 Gravesend. There’s Zealous (Broad Brush) took the Cigar Stakes on his way to earnings of over $280,000, while She’s Zealous (Cozzene) picked up a Correction Handicap win and over $150,000.

Owner: Jay Em Ess Stable
Trainer: Michelle Nevin
Jockey: Jose Ortiz


Notes: Market Lover is a half or full to a trio of stakes horses. Midnight Bounty’s multiple stakes winning dam is a half-sister to Japanese G2 winner Agnes Wing.

 

ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction