Monday, July 07, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for Wednesday July 9th
Race 1: Have no interest in standing strongly against #7 The Candidate, listed at 4/5 on the ML as he drops all the way down for Chad Brown, who gets perfect 100 trainer ratings with horses dropping from ALW to CLM, with 3yos in low-level claimers on dirt, and with horse making their third start off the layoff, all of which apply.
#1 Private Irving A is just 1-for-17 but appears the logical alternative (which serves to make The Candidate's position stronger), as he has speed from the rail and has run figures in 4 of his last 5 sprints that fit well in here. #3 Sky Colors was badly off form when last seen and is just starting back as a 5yo, but he has plenty of back races that make him tough and has made few starts at this lowly level.
Race 2: Guess #3 Toy Cannon is supposed to win as he drops into restricted claiming company for the first time since his runner-up finish at Gulfstream way back in March 2013; always seems to be in the mix vs. allowance company without doing enough when it counts. If we can get the right price on #10 Huge Asset, perhaps we can take a shot with him to post a small upset. He earned a speed figure for his 3rd-place finish in the NY-bred stallion series last June that makes him competitive with the favorite, and he appeared to have needed that first one back form the layoff after getting into position and then fading through the stretch. #5 Bold Forest is the most dangerous rival for Toy Cannon, as he has actually run all of the fastest races in the field on our speed figures, and he did not get the greatest trip in the world when failing to get involved in his last race, but he's failed at shorter prices several times himself.
Race 3: Pace Projector for this race indicates that the flow will favor runners up on or near the early lead, and places our top pick, #7 Photon, up in a perfect outside stalking position from the start.
We don't believe that his last two starts are as bad as they appear to be on paper, as he was part of a fast and strongly contested pace two starts back before tiring and being allowed to fall way back out of contention by his rider once he was beaten, and he was in a super-tough $25k claimer last time; figures to do better trip-wise today, and his new trainer does well with runners making their first start out of her barn (90 trainer rating, albeit with a small sample size). ML favorite #4 Volastic may be up against it from a pace standpoint, and based on speed figures, he is going to need his very best effort to contend in here, assuming the NY regulars show up. #2 Starship Captain and #3 Road Agent battled each other all the way in 1-2 finish here last month, and are factors once again.
Race 4: Two ML favorites for this race, #11 It's Your Dime and #8 Rufus Ruth, are difficult to endorse at short prices, as they've both had their chances with very good trips, at this level and lower, and failed to get it done. #13 Freud's Sunset is first AE, and we'll happily take her should she draw in, as she'll be dropping for the first time (Gullo gets a strong 89 trainer rating with horses dropping from MSW to MCL) as she makes her second start off the layoff, and her speed figures from last year are every bit as good as the favorites'. We have not been fans of #5 Penella, but she may be a dangerous horse switching to turf for the first time, as she has had a couple of siblings who managed to improve their form on turf.
Race 5: #9 From the Point could only be along for 2nd-best after #6 Tempered Threat and #8 Ten Items Or Less engaged in a pace duel on the Belmont Stakes Day undercard; may get a similar setup today with those two rivals set to hook up again, and may be able to do better as he makes his first start off the claim for very sharp connections.
Race 6: #3 Dance Champion raced very greenly first time out before improving greatly in much-the-best win second time out; tough go last time in wide trip against a slow pace.
#5 Patent has been unlucky a time or two in his own right, and exits that same slow-paced affair as Dance Champion, though he was in a much better position throughout the running while tracking in behind the front-running winner. #10 Request is a bit of a wildcard as he makes his 3yo debut for Chad Brown; looked good in defeating a solid field of maidens here last fall before bombing in graded stakes company down south.
Race 7: Pace Projector tells the story here, as a field full of speed types figures to set the table for the closers. We'll take #4 Catholic Cowboy on top, as he drops out of some tougher races and has the top late pace rating in the field. #5 Dyker Beach may be the horse to beat, but he has settled for second-best in 7 of his 15 dirt starts and took advantage of a speed-favoring track when finally putting up his first career win two starts back at Churchill.
Race 8: Super-tough allowance with an $85k purse gets a race rating of 111, making it very near a graded stake, and drew a field to match. We will put #9 Swift Warrior on top, as he may appreciate getting a little turn-back here while making his third turf start of the season and will probably appreciate getting some firmer ground underfoot, should that be the case. Not sure what we'll get from ML favorite #12 Lochte, who ran a few bang-up races in Grade 1 company earlier this year before coming up empty last time; we'll be against him here, while realizing that he could easily beat us. We'll instead use both the #2 Bad Debt, who holds his own regularly with similar competition, and #3 Fredericksburg, who has the adaptability to pull the right trip in here with the main speeds to his outside.
Race 9: Finale may be the right spot for #9 Sunrise Kitty, who is favored on the ML as she drops into a restricted claimer (note that while she is up in claiming price from $25k to $35k, she was facing open company last time, as opposed to these non-winners of two races lifetime foes); she won't get many more chances from us after failing in her last four attempts as the favorite. We're also going to use #7 Radiant Cut, who parlayed a perfect trip into an overdue score last time; and a little of #11 Painted Poney, whose turf debut last time may as well have come in a graded stakes race when compared to today's competition (race rating of 96 last time as opposed to today's 84).