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Forbes' Firsters

 

Forbes’ Firsters is a series that takes a glance at the pedigrees and sales histories of select 2-year-olds who are making their debuts in maiden special weight races at Aqueduct Racetrack, Belmont Park, or Saratoga Race Course. Many of history’s best horses have commenced their careers in New York, and Forbes’ Firsters will help fans find the stars of tomorrow as they head postward for the first time.

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 26, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 26, 2014

Race 6, 2-year-old fillies, seven furlongs, turf, 3:25 p.m.

GIANT CRYSTAL (chestnut filly, Giant’s Causeway—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) is a half-sister to Gemologist, who won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at 2 before taking the Grade 1 Wood Memorial the following year; and Clear Destiny, who won a listed stakes at Mountaineer Racetrack. Eight of 10 starters out of their unraced dam have won, including two on the turf. Crystal Shard is a full-sister to Withallprobability, who won three graded stakes and was second in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Giant Crystal was the most expensive of 10 weanlings by Giant’s Causeway to sell at auction in 2012.

Owner: Live Oak Plantation

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Sales history: $450,000 Keeneland November weanling

 

LIGHTNING LUCY (dark bay or brown filly, Giant’s Causeway—Mary Goodnight, by Grindstone) is out of a mare who won two races on the dirt. Mary Goodnight is a half-sister to four-time Grade 1 winner Devil His Due and has produced four winners from as many starters, including one on the turf.

Owner: Stronach Stables

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, September 27, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, September 27, 2014

Race 1, All 2-year-olds, seven furlongs, dirt, 12:50 p.m.

SAVOY SAMPLE (dark bay or brown colt, Medaglia d’Oro—Crystal Current, by El Prado) is a half-brother to Mi Vida, who was third in a minor stakes at Evangeline Downs. Their dam won the Suncoast Oaks at Tampa Bay Downs and is a full-sister to Grade 1 Hopeful winner Majestic Warrior and a half-sister to Evolutionist, who on the turf won a stakes at the Fair Grounds and was Grade 3-placed. Savoy Sample’s second dam is Dream Supreme, who captured six graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Test and Grade 1 Ballerina.

Owner: Team Valor International & Southern Equine Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $875,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling

 

BOONE DOCKS (bay colt, Smart Strike—Belle of Perintown, by Dehere) is a half-brother to Strike It Rich, who won the Grade 3 Boiling Springs on the turf. Their dam won the listed Pocahontas at 2 and the Grade 2 Silverbulletday at 3 and has produced three winners from four starters.

Owner: Southern Equine Stable

Trainer: Eric Guillot

Jockey: Junior Alvrado

Sales history: $575,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

TRADESMAN (dark bay or brown colt, Street Sense—Mari’s Thunder, by Thunder Gulch) is out of an unraced half-sister to Congaree, who won two editions of the Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap and the Grade 1 Swaps, Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup, and Grade 1 Carter Handicap; and Sangaree, who won a minor stakes at Santa Anita and was second in five graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap. Mari’s Thunder has produced two winners from four starters.

 

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Paco Lopez

 

MIDHMAAR (gray/roan colt, Tapit—Take D’ Tour, by Tour d’Or) is out of a two-time winner of the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap. Take D’ Tour has produced one starter, who was winless in three races.

Owner: Shadwell Stable

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $600,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

Race 3, All 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 1:54 p.m.

 

ST. LOUIE (dark bay or brown colt, Arch—Seeking an Angel, by Seeking the Gold) is out of a stakes-placed half-sister to Hula Angel, a daughter of Woodman who won the Group 1 Irish 1,000 Guineas; and Schedule, a two-time stakes winner on the dirt at the Meadowlands. Both Seeking an Angel and Hula Angel are by sons of Mr. Prospector. Seeking an Angel has produced one previous starter, who won a single race on the turf in eight starts.

Owner: Richard Santulli

Trainer: Alan Goldberg

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

 

MOSS CODE (chestnut colt, Congrats—Fun Project, by Housebuster) is a half-brother to Fun Logic, who won the restricted Adoration Handicap on Del Mar’s synthetic surface; and Freesgood, who on the dirt captured stakes at Santa Anita and Fairplex and was second in the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby. Their dam has produced six winners (two turf winners) from seven starters and is winning half-sister to stakes winners Fleet Broad and Houston Fleet M D.

Owner: Mossarosa

Trainer: Nicholas Zito

Jockey: Israel Rodriguez

Sales history: $45,000 Keeneland January yearling, $190,000 Keeneland April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 2/5 seconds, video)

 

DISPERSION (dark bay or brown colt, Arch—Miss Lodi, by Mr. Greeley) is out of a sprinter who captured the Grade 3 Safely Kept and was third in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff Handicap. Miss Lodi has produced four winners (one dirt winner and two synthetic winners) from five starters.

Owner: Klaravich Stables & William H. Lawrence

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $150,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

CAPROCK KID (bay colt, Sky Mesa—Western Humor, by Gone West) is out of an unraced half-sister to Coronado’s Quest, a son of Forty Niner whose accomplishments included Grade 1 wins in the Wood Memorial and Haskell Invitational Handicap; Warning Glance, a Grade 3 winner on the turf; and Military Look, who took a pair of Maryland Million races on the dirt. Both Western Humor and Coronado’s Quest are by sons of Mr. Prospector. Western Humor has produced two turf winners from three starters.

Owner: Stuart S. Janney III

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

TimeformUS Analysis for September 25

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Belmont Park on Thursday September 25th

Race 1:  #4 Marcy is already fastest of these on her best dirt effort and can be expected to improve as she gets a big drop in class to go along with a positive trainer change (Rodriguez gets perfect 100 rating with runners making first start out of his barn).  Was a vet scratch when entered against several of these horses on September 6th, but she's tough to go against assuming all is well.  #6 Wisdom of Oz is the likeliest upsetter as she drops back down to the level of her last win, which came with the benefit of a fast pace out in front of her.  

 
Selections:  4-6-7-1
 
Race 2:   #7 Wine Burglar disappointed as a short price on the class drop last time, but she had run well enough to win this in each of her three prior starts on grass, and she is first off the claim for dangerous connections.  #3 Too Good to B True is an interesting new face in a race open to that kind of horse.  She's in good form right now, having posted a win and a pair of close runner-up finishes from her last four turf starts.  #6 Flirtatious Spring has just one win to go with her nine second and third-place finishes so far, which makes her an unappealing price in this race, but she's clearly fast enough to win, and her trainer excels with runners making their third start off the layoff (97 rating). 
 
Selections:  7-3-6-4
 
Race 3:  #7 Jcs American Dream came through with a career-best performance when last sent this one-mile distance here on June 4th, and she has since raced either on turf or around two turns in stakes company.  Repeat of that game runner-up performance four starts back makes her competitive and she may be an interesting price.  #4 Canal Six hasn't run quite as fast as some of her opponents to this point, but she's still lightly raced and may be set for her best as she makes her third start back from the layoff while dropping in class for a talented young trainer.  Maiden win came in lone start over this track and distance in a race that featured a contested pace for her to close into, and she has a pair of speeds lined up to her outside in this spot.  #5 Annie Walker is one of those speeds, and she is a dangerous one.  Came up just short of taking a field the full nine furlongs at Saratoga last time, but her one-turn mile here on June 19th was an impressive performance.  
 
Selections:  7-4-5-6
 
Race 4:  #4 Momma Giovanna raced wide after breaking very awkwardly in her turf debut, but she put in a run before tiring late.  Has the pedigree to handle a switch to dirt (82 Breeding Rating for dirt routes) as a half to Saturday Appeal, a solid dirt router around here over the past few years.  #5 Building Permit took money but was outrun by an impressive Hard To Stay Notgo on debut upstate.  Trainer gets big 98 rating with second-time starters, and this filly appears to be in a much softer MSW field this time (65 rating for this field, as compared to the 82 for the field she debuted in).  #3 Razia Sultana was also in that Hard To Stay Notgo race last time.  Half-sister to the talented Samraat may yet have more to give as she stretches out for the first time.
 
Selections:  4-5-3-8
 
Race 5:  #6 Grandpa's King took money but failed to fire when green in Saratoga debut.  Picks up Castellano for this and can be given another chance for trainer pulling perfect 100 ratings across several categories with 2yos in MCL races.  #3 Oh Poggibonsi is by the red-hot debut sire Tiz Wonderful, and his dam was a graded-stakes-placed dirt sprinter in her career.  #2 Special Invitation debuted in a strong field early in the Saratoga meet, and he'll drop in class for his second start (trainer gets strong 98 rating with second-time starters).  #4 Ghost Swagger debuts for the same trainer who saddles Special Invitation, and he has sent out several live first-time starters in maiden claiming company recently (100 rating from limited sample of 2yos debuting in MCL races).  
 
Selections:  6-3-2-4
 
Race 6:  #5 First Whippoorwill is first off the claim for a talented trainer, and she has races to get to that would give ML favorite #6 Flamingo Lane all she can handle in this spot.  Couldn't catch that rival on June 29th, but First Whippoorwill was just starting back off the layoff that day, and may be a tougher customer this time.  Flamingo Lane enters here as the best horse based on recent form, and one who projects to be up close in a race that is expected to favor runners on or near the lead.  She is just a neck shy of bringing a five-race winning streak into this spot, and she is going to be tough once again with a typical effort.  There isn't much between #1 Edie and #2 Indian Starlight based upon their meeting on August 28th, but the latter has more tactical speed to deploy, which projects to be to her advantage in this field, while the former will be returning quickly after short-priced defeat here seven days ago.
 
Selections:  5-6-2-1
 
Race 7:   #6 Spartiatis came with a good run to be clearly second-best behind the streaking Ziptronic last time, and gets some extra credit as the only horse to make a run from off the pace in that race.  93 TFUS Speed Figure earned for that effort suggests he can compete here.  #1 Isn'tlovejustgrand was outrun in fast-paced sprint two starts back, then was wired when Billy the Bull got loose on the lead here six days ago.  Is good enough to beat these horses, and he can fall into the right trip tracking the pace from the inside.  #7 Sandy'z Slew has been right there at the finish in all five career turf sprint starts, and continued his run of solid races when staying gamely in off-the-turf stakes try at Saratoga last time.  Has speed, and Pace Projector indicates this race favors horses with his running style.  #8 Bluegrass Springs found traffic when dropped in class for most recent start, but he prefers the slightly longer turf sprints they run around here, and he makes his first start for a dangerous trainer today (93 rating off the claim).  
 
Selections:  6-1-7-8
 
Race 8:  Tough race with no one to fully trust.  Several are exiting the 7th race from September 7th here, which was won by Raglin River, who paid $112.  #1 Wake Up in Malibu was not in that September 7th event, which is a positive to us,  and he may appreciate turning back to a sprint after trying longer in a pair of starts upstate.  Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead, and he has the speed to keep up close from his inside post.  #6 Ogermeister came back to turf for the first time since a trip to Royal Ascot, but could only chase a wire-to-wire winner that day.  May play out as the best speed in this race.  #11 Latigo Trail has clearly picked up his game since switching to turf this summer, and he also has enough speed to be a forward factor from the start. 
 
Selections:  1-6-11-10
 
Race 9:  #8 Manoffire brings a pair of layover TFUS Speed Figures with him as he drops in class for the first time off the trainer change to Lisa Lewis.  He is unlikely to find a better spot than this one.  #9 New Dude is perhaps the most interesting horse to give a look to as he makes his second career start while switching to turf off the claim.  He can improve on grass as a half to three-time turf winner Miz Owell, but he won't have to come forward by much against this field.  
 

Selections:  8-9-7-2 

 

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TimeformUS Analysis for September 24

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Beautiful Belmont Park on Wednesday September 24
 
Race 1:  #7 Ave's Halo closed into a fast pace to best a couple of these at Saratoga when dropped to this level and has the same pacesetter once again here in the form of #3 Insolvent. Ave's Halo is a short price, but has consistently run the best races and is tough dropping back down.  Insolvent is the speed once again, and Pace Projector places her in early control once again, but stamina continues to be her Achilles heel.  #2 Fall Into Faith can get to a race that would be competitive here, and she was a winner over this course and distance when catching a fast pace last May.  Will be a price, and Insolvent ensures that there will be some pace. 
 
Selections:  7-3-2-5
 
Race 2:  #3 Sean and Matt appeared to be a young horse in need of some racing after hitting the track late last year, as he raced very greenly in both starts vs. some better competition.  Still earned TFUS Speed Figures of 74 and 73, which are in line with what most of his rivals have been producing, and he is the kind of horse who may have benefited greatly from the time off.  #5 Inca Saint was claimed back at the first opportunity by Chad Brown (100 rating off the claim) and is returned immediately to dirt.  Missed narrowly to the talented  Life in Shambles in main track debut.  #8 Flag On the Play gave way after a wide chase in lone start to date, which came sprinting vs. subsequent graded stakes performer C. Zee.  Returns as a new gelding with Lasix on for the first time (100 rating for this trainer) and a drop in class. 
 
Selections:  3-5-8-2
 
Race 3:  #1 Sweet Sweet Afleet is likely to be a short price after eye-catching debut in which she appeared to be on her way to victory before bolting in the stretch and losing all chance.  She's the horse to beat, assuming she is better behaved in start #2.  
 
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Would expect better from #6 Moonlight Fantasy this time, as well.  She also raced very greenly throughout her debut behind winning stablemate Girlaboutown, who would come right back to win again, and her trainer scores a perfect 100 rating with second-time starters.  #5 Warm Heart is off too long of a layoff to realistically expect too much, but she had good speed while contesting the pace on a dead rail when last seen 647 days ago.
 
Selections:  6-1-5-2
 
Race 4:  #9 Miss Lech should be set to step forward in second start back from a layoff after putting in a game stretch run to fall just short of 2nd last time.  Has run well without winning at 5.5 and 7 furlongs, so this six-furlong trip may suit her.  #2 Galroyale turned all the way back and bested several of these last time, but did so with a perfect run up the inside without traffic.  #3 Harp N Halo raced in traffic until the top of the stretch behind Galroyale in that spot, but tried gamely in the stretch and is eligible to improve quickly.  #1 Korite was also behind Galroyale on August 29th, but she was always off the pace after getting bumped at the start, and she raced greenly throughout for a trainer who gets a solid 75 rating with second-time starters.
 
Selections:  9-1-3-2
 
Race 5:  #11 As Well had a tough trip from start to finish at Saratoga last time, but has run several races that make her competitive here, and Pace Projector indicates that she may catch the right set-up today.  Despite remaining a maiden on this surface to date, #1 Milkyyourway has run some of the best turf races in the field, and she can also benefit from the expected pace scenario.  #7 Funky Munky Fever hasn't found much pace to work with lately, but she's proven to be an effective closer in the right circumstances, and done so vs. some solid competition. 
 
Selections:  11-1-7-3
 
Race 6:  #9 The Big Deluxe has faced tougher fields than this recently, and he cut a fast pace over this trip last time before weakening late.  Also made a solid pace two back in a race that collapsed at the end, but may have an easier time of it in this spot according to Pace Projector.  
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#6 Sir Bond had little chance to catch a loose-on-the-lead #1A Glickman when dropped down in class last time, but he was trying gamely in the stretch, and his new trainer is in the midst of a good run.  #5 Writingonthewall has continued on in good form for this trainer since being claimed back in May, winning a sprint vs. a field rated 103 at Saratoga (today's field is rated at 98), and then finishing a game 2nd going longer last time.  Turn-back a positive, and he has enough speed to avoid being badly compromised by moderate fractions.
 
Selections:  9-6-5-3
 
Race 7:  #2 Bio Pro tough to go against at likely short price as he drops out of stakes competition sporting layover TFUS Speed Figures of 111 and 114 for his last two starts.  Most recent start around this level on May 24th resulted in convincing win with a figure of 113.  Likely has the most to fear from #1A Strong Impact, who was compromised by chasing Za Approval on a slow pace last time.  He hasn't quite been up to his top level since being claimed by these connections, but he's a gamer and he handles this distance.  #3 Golden Rifle has been on a good run for Chad Brown and he's 2-for-2 over this distance and 3-for-3 at Belmont, but he will need to run faster if the good Bio Pro shows up.
 
Selections:  2-1A-3-6
 
Race 8:  #10 Gratitude cut a fast pace in turf debut going longer back in March, but she's improved under rating tactics since then and exits tough-trip chance at Saratoga when forced into wide run from off of an uncompetitive pace.  #8 Ballerina Belle was also up against it in that same race on July 18th upstate, and she came back to just miss in a later start up there.  Figures to appreciate having a little extra ground to work with.  #7 Zindaya got loose on the lead and easily took a field all the way when returned from a layoff last time, but she may play out as the main speed in this field as well, and she is dangerous in such a scenario. 
 
Selections:  10-8-7-5
 
Race 9:  #11 Hushhushmushmush emerged an unlucky loser from lone start at this level at Saratoga after getting caught up in a fast duel and paying the price late.  Drops back down as the horse to beat.  Horse he dueled into defeat in that July 20th attempt at this level, #10 Wake Up and Go, is also here, and he also had a tough trip in the start preceding that one when stuck rating wide behind a slow pace.  #12 Chasin Chama couldn't contend when stepped up in class last time, but he has run well both times at this level, and he never had a fair chance when held up in behind horses for a long way on August 11 at Saratoga. 
 
Selections:  11-10-12-6
 
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