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TimeformUS Analysis for June 26

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Thursday, June 26
 
Race 1: In the opener, there is nowhere to go with any real enthusiasm, at least as far as we can see.  #3 Glickman is the most-talented horse, by far, but is returning from a layoff of over two years.  We can't recommend betting real money on him but don't love the alternatives, either.  #2 Silver Morgan has twice contested the pace and proven no match since switching back from grass recently, and there is plenty of other speed signed on here.  Maybe #1 Indy Sea is the best option, as he got back to a good race on turf last time, can run his race on dirt, and doesn't need the lead.
 
Selections:  1-3-2-4
 
 
Race 2:  With two of the early favorites for this race, #4 Brilliant Jewel and #6 Ridingwiththedevil, difficult for us to endorse strongly, we went looking for alternatives in this race.  The obvious one is #3 Dragonberry (a Todd Pletcher-trained first-time starter by Unbridled's Song), who is from the female family of Paynter and Tiznow, among others. We can use her in here, especially if she winds up being bet strongly, but it is worth noting that all horses debuting out of this barn are not made equal.  While Pletcher is especially dangerous with horses making their first career start at places like Saratoga (with 2yos) and Gulfstream (with newly turned 3yos), he pulls a modest rating of 64 with older first-time-starting maidens overall.  
 
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We'll see what happens with that horse, but the one we're going to try to breathe some life into is #1 Ribbon Cutter.  Ribbon Cutter, whose second dam is the multiple graded stakes winning dirt runner Runway Model,  has run only twice to date, and not very competitively yet.  However, those races were not particularly easy spots, and she has yet to catch a fast dirt track (let's hope we have one today).  She made her debut at the end of last year's Saratoga meet over a sloppy sealed track against Recepta, who ran next in the Grade 1 Frizette and has since gone on to become a stakes winner on grass.  Ribbon Cutter switched to turf for her next start and went evenly in a wide trip behind another subsequent stakes winner, Walk Close.  
 
It's possible, of course, that Ribbon Cutter just doesn't have that much ability, and if that's the case, not even getting fast dirt for the first time is going to help much.  But she really hasn't had a fair chance yet, and any race where we perceive that the favorites are vulnerable is a race that we want to be involved in.  
 
Selections:  1-3-4-7
 
 
Race 3:  We thought #2 Son of a General ran very well last time. He emerged from that race a very unlucky loser after being forced into a wide run all the way through the turn while the favored winner sat a perfect trip all the way.  He landed in a super-tough $25k claimer two starts back, and while he meets some solid competition in this spot as well, his most-accomplished rivals are showing recent signs of wear and tear.   #3 Battle Hardened is a bit of a wild card here. We want to see one from him in NY before getting on board. And we are against North Ocean in this spot, win or lose, as he has appeared to be on the downside recently and takes a negative drop off the claim.  We are most wary of the #1 entry from David Jacobson, especially the #1A, Joan's Choice, who bled two back but appeared none the worse for wear when galloping over a field at Monmouth 11 days ago.
 
Selections:  2-1A-3-1
 
 
Race 4:  Pace Projector indicates that this race will be run at a fast pace, and to further complicate matters, there are four significant players in the race who are returning from long layoffs.  It is one of those layoff runners, #2 Mississippi Duel, whom we like on top in this race.  Mississippi Duel projects to land somewhere in behind that fast pace, and his turf form is strong.  We will also use #4 Tapitdar in his first start back, as he fits well at this level and has tractable speed.  #8 Dan and Sheila is interesting, as he is a closer on the main track who may appreciate landing in a turf race with some pace, and it is worth considering whether Steve Asmussen claimed this horse with grass in mind.  We're intrigued, and will use him if he stays in.  One other horse to consider is #3 Dreaming of Danny, whom we admit to being leery of given the recent struggles this barn has gone through (Rudy Rodriguez is 1 for his last 39 at Belmont, and has not won a race in the month of June, a run that includes 8 losses with horses that were 2/1 or less at post time).
 
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Selections:  2-8-4-3
 
 
Race 5:  #6 Dan's Gold drops to a more reasonable spot after failing to strongly impact a better group over a sloppy track last time, and he was hooked into a fast duel one start prior to that; drew well on the outside and his best race makes him tough.  
 
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#7 Lucci the Lion has been back in top form recently, and emerged an unlucky loser last time after contesting the pace all the way before falling prey to a pair of closers; this is tougher, but not by that much.  #4 B Shanny has plenty of races to get to that would make him a handful in here, but he has been gingerly handled by these connections since the claim and continues his descent here.  #3 Head Heart Hoof has had trouble getting to his good races recently but would be too much for these should he flash back to early 2013.  
 
Selections:  6-7-4-3
 
 
Race 6:  We like this trainer change for #5 Ocala Jim, and he showed enough on turf last year to deserve a shot, anyway. We are betting him at anything like his ML odds, and making #3 Frogman Mel our other horse.  Frogman Mel makes his first start back as a 3yo after displaying some ability last year, and he ran better than it may appear in the turf finale at Laurel after failing to get any position in the race behind a wire-to-wire winner; Rudy's struggles apply here, as well, however.  #2 Bold Forest is logical, and he's one we've been chasing since last year, so we won't overlook. 
 
Selections:  5-3-2-1
 
 
Race 7:  #1 William'sluckygray hasn't run on fast dirt since wiring maidens over the inner dirt back in March; has speed, and was badly compromised by a stumble at the break last time.  #5 Let Me Be Nuts drops down while making second start off the layoff for an underrated trainer and is one of only two in the field with a prior win over this track and trip. #3 Resolute Babe projects to be on the lead early in here as she drops to the lowest level of her career; has never been beyond 6.5 furlongs.  
 
Selections:  1-5-3-4
 
 
Race 8:  Turf sprint for experienced NY-breds is open to several different horses, so let price be your guide.  We thought that both #4 Western Tryst and #6 Leilani's Ticket ran very well when wide and closing behind #2 Mr Rosenthal and #3 Special Selection last time.  Leilani's Ticket figures to be the better price. So we'll land there for now.  
 
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#5 Bug Juice handles any surface and picks up Castellano after finishing second-best in a minor stakes race at Finger Lakes last month.  #9 Ziptronic settled for third behind a couple of strong rivals in his first start back from the layoff and figures tighter for this.  
 
Selections:  6-4-5-9
 
 
Race 9:  Tough to decipher finale in which all ten (in the main body of the race) who have tried turf have run similar figures consistently.  We'll put #3 Rose Quartz over #10 Lavender Road, as they both drop in class for the first time, but the former has already been long and the latter drew poorly on the outside for a race over this distance on the inner.  #6 Bi Light of Day will face maiden claiming company on turf for the first time, and #4 Race and Shine finished gamely into a strong pace set-up last time. 
 
Selections:  3-10-6-4
 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for June 25

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Wednesday, June 25
 
Race 1:  #8 Lane Allen is a well-pedigreed Darley homebred who brought only $8k at auction and has been beaten a combined 30+ lengths in his two starts to date, so it is a bit odd to say that he is the clear horse to beat in the opener. But he is.  He is well drawn on the outside, and Pace Projector indicates that he has the speed to make a clear early lead in this spot.  His trainer, Chris Englehart, has strong ratings both with horses dropping 50% or more in claiming price (100) and with horses switching from turf to dirt (98).  And Lane Allen earned the top TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field for his debut, during which he was in an early pace duel before tiring.  
 
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#3 Wild Skye took money in his debut for a low-percentage barn and will add lasix for start #2; be little surprise to see some improvement.  
 
Selections:  8-3-4-6
 
 
Race 2:  The 1 1/4-mile distance is the key to the second leg, as no one in the field has ever won a race beyond 1 1/16 miles.  The first horse to reckon with is #7 Bluegrass Flash (a half-brother to the Grade 1 turf winner Discreet Marq), who is switching back to grass for the first time since last summer.  Bluegrass Flash should have won his debut, but he was compromised badly by breaking slowly and then being forced into a wide run.  The problem with him is that he has been mostly a disappointment since then, losing his next four starts at low odds, and it has been interesting to see Christophe Clement, who also trains Discreet Marq, steadfastly keep this horse on the main track (he was entered MTO when breaking his maiden last time).  We think it is reasonable to try to beat this horse at a short price, and will do so primarily with #9 Trainingforsuccess and #1 Elroi. Trainingforsuccess was wide all the way when wired two starts back, and he endured a brutally tough trip last time.  
 
Selections:  9-1-2-7
 
 
Race 3: It will be interesting to see how this $25k claimer for older sprinters plays out, as there appears to be plenty of speed signed on, yet Pace Projector envisions a race shape that favors runners up close.  We will defy that scenario a bit, on the thinking that #1 Hillswick has to go from the rail, which will help #5 Haverhill to produce his late run in this spot.  Haverhill caught some pace last time when returned from the layoff, and he finished gamely to fall just short of Coolusive, who got the jump on him that day.  He is not a dead one-run closer, but has the top late pace rating in the field, and his new trainer won with a horse first time off the claim here on Sunday.  
 
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Hillswick is getting up there at age 8, but he was able to handle a quick turnaround to post a narrow win at Monmouth last month, albeit with a big drop in class; has back races that would overwhelm this field, but questionable whether he can still reach that level of performance.
 
Selections:  5-1-4-3
 
 
Race 4:  #3 Macagone is very much the horse to beat here, as he turns back out of a longer route vs. open company to rejoin NY-breds.  He did a ton of racing behind the promising Point Roll two starts back after taking a hard bump at the break and getting shuffled out to the back of the field.  He wound up settling for 3rd that day, but he clearly ran the second-best race.  #1 Raffies Bay has been strongly rated in his 3 NY starts to date, but has the speed to take advantage of his inside draw, which is paramount over this distance on the inner turf.  We like him and think he's better than he looks.  #2 Hushhushmushmush will likely be over-bet, but he is eligible to step forward a bit in second start off the layoff for Chad Brown.  #6 Iced Over ran very well in his turf debut at Churchill last time, racing on gamely behind a pair of MSW droppers after catching a wide trip; "hung" comment from the chart caller highly uncharitable there.  
 
Selections:  3-1-6-2
 
 
Race 5:  Maybe it was just the muddy, sealed track that enabled #4 Get Gorgeous to run what was perhaps the best race of her career as an 8yo, but we think it may have had more to do with the trainer change, as she earned that victory by taking part in a multi-horse pace battle and surviving, and then driving clear of favored Darnley Bay, was was sitting in a perfect trip all the way; has proven form from off the pace, as well.  #2 Familyofroses is 2-for-2 with this rider and won big the only other time she went turf-to-dirt in her career, and #6 Accomplish First stretches a bit farther looking for four in a row.  
 
Selections:  4-6-2-3
 
 
Race 6:  Turf sprint for NY-bred fillies and mares appears open to several different horses, despite #8 Fancy Boss being a strong favorite on the ML.  That horse has made no mistakes to this point, but has gotten away pretty easily on the pace in each of her two starts this year, and this figures to be tougher for her.  
 
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We are interested in #7 Elmra as she switches to turf for the first time. She has plenty of pedigree, being out of a dam who was a winner and was Group 3-placed in France, and she has already displayed plenty of ability on the main track; trainer Mark Hennig has a strong 83 rating with turf sprinters. Dominick Schettino has quietly been sending out nothing but live runners at this meet, and his #5 My Jopia fits very well in this field, as she has mostly faced tougher than this while winning three times over turf.  #6 Ornellia is capable of a performance that would be competitive with this group, and she had real trouble in that first start back from the layoff, though everyone seemed to notice, which tends to attract unwarranted money. 
 
Selections:  7-6-5-4
 
 
Race 7:  #6 Protonico buried a weak group of maidens at Delaware last year before coming to NY to try graded stakes company, and he did not run poorly in that Nashua; turned over to Pletcher for his 3yo season, but he'll have to be set to go right away vs. this field.  #5 Magic Cash is also in receipt of a trainer change for third lifetime start, and he impressed greatly in pair of Maryland efforts.  #2 Venetian Mask is another who showed disdain for a field of maidens out of town, and he will now stretch out a bit for his second start.  Both #1 Lieutenant Seany O and #4 All My Memories have more experience than the top 3, but they can both run and are dangerous in here.
 
Selections:  6-5-2-1
 
 
Race 8:  #8 Frege has lost her last two as the favorite, but she ran very well in narrow defeat two back, and endured a tough trip last time; enough pace lined up for her to have her best chance here.  #2 Lawless Miss is the lone entrant with multiple wins over this distance, and she was gamely second-best to an impressive winner when returned from the layoff last month.  #3 Roses for Romney is talented enough to be a big player here, but has been difficult to handle in her races, and may be at her best when simply allowed to race freely on the lead; dangerous if turned loose.  #6 Tokyo Time has been truly unlucky at times, but may also be at her best when free-running up front.  
 
Selections:  8-2-3-4
 
 
Race 9:  Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap for this maiden claimer over turf, which we hope most benefits #6 Whyalwaysme, who drops in class for a trainer in the midst of a solid meet and is a half-brother to I Bet Toni Knows, who was a NY-bred stakes winner on grass. #3 Sequestrate gave way after contesting the pace in his debut run, which was rained off to the main track; drops in class, and he's a half to a pair of turf winners.  #10 Readyfortheday is another class-dropper switching to turf, and he is by turf influence More Than Ready.  #7 With Expression may be the horse to beat, and he also drops down for a trainer bringing the goods so far at this meet. 
 
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Selections:  6-3-10-7
 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for June 22

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Sunday, June 22

Race 1:  #5 Letsgotovegas is an interesting firster for a very dangerous trainer in a race where the experienced runners leave something to be desired.  She's the first foal from a stakes-placed dam who posted a pair of blowout wins sprinting on dirt in her career, and trainer Michael Mareina scores a perfect 100 rating with first-time sprinters.
 
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#2 Silver Union landed in tough spot chasing the promising Thirteen Arrows in first start for Weaver; can do better in this kind of field.  #4 Lateen was a convincing winner vs. cheaper before being disqualified from purse money; this figures tougher.  #1 Magsamelia has blown a couple of clear leads already, but has speed and switches back to Castellano.
 
Selections:  5-2-4-1
 
 
Race 2:  #5 Knotty Pine raced greenly down inside before finishing up with interest behind an impressive winner at Pimlico in turf debut; has big pedigree to step up her game with racing and some distance.  #1 Pedal Princess has big pedigree to live up to, and she finished with interest after getting away last and racing behind a moderate pace in well-backed debut; improvement expected.  #4 Killington returned from long break to take a solid run at Charm City Girl, who came here to run a good second to heavily favored Hillhouse High the other day.  #2 Jolene was a game runner-up after heading down to the rail in the stretch, and figures to improve on grass, being out of a dam who made over $360k on that surface.
 
Selections:  5-1-4-2
 
 
Race 3:  No one to trust in this $16k claimer for a group of horses who are on a down cycle right now.  We'll take #6 Starship Captain on top, as he figures to be one of the better prices and won't be part of the pace, which may be the fate of some of the others, and he got a strange ride last time with his rider trying to angle sharply to the outside in the stretch for no apparent reason.  #5 Rigby is difficult to take, as he figures a shorter price, though he did come up against a razor sharp performance from Upward last time. #2 Road Agent is taking a drop in class paired with a turn-back in distance, both of which figure to benefit him, and he still has his speed.
 
Selections:  6-2-5-1
 
 
Race 4:  #5 Sol the Freud may not handle turf at all, but he shouldn't be judged against his debut over the surface, as he was part of a hotly contested pace that collapsed that day; chance things are a lot different today, as Pace Projector puts him alone on the lead to big advantage.  
 
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#1A Mark My Way parlayed a perfect trip into a blowout maiden score last November; hung badly on his return to turf last month, but may not have wanted nine furlongs there.  #7 Gridley Here is logical in here, and clearly eligible to be further developed as he makes 3yo debut here.
 
Selections:  5-1A-7-3
 
 
Race 5:  #4 Make a Fortune is dropping down for third start off the Jacobson re-claim, and has easily the best early speed in this matchup; if not now, when?  #2 Mystic Strike is the other Jacobson runner, and while he's been a big disappointment for these connections, he should be competitive at this level.  At least #1 Steve Came Thru is in form, having won two of his three starts over this surface.
 
Selections:  4-2-1-6
 
 
Race 6:  #3 Cat's Claw looked good last year without winning, and then took full advantage of a perfect trip going longer to break her maiden after prepping over speed-favoring KEE polytrack; half to Point of Entry stretches farther, and looked as if he'll stay all day in that last one.  
 
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#4 Silky is the other logical contender here, but getting 1 1/2 miles off the layoff is not an easy task.
 
Selections:  3-4-6-1
 
 
Race 7:  We've been following #2 Four Directions since his inner dirt debut, where he finished up with interest, and he was very unlucky in each of his next two dirt starts, first getting bumped and shuffled out to last and then finishing strongly against a gold rail on March 16th, and then giving away all position early and finishing up best of all behind the talented John's Island in April; happy to go back to him here as he comes back to dirt.  
 
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Selections:  2-4-8-7
 
 
Race 8:  #10 Old Harbor got very rank on the lead upon switch to turf two starts back, and actually continued to race on after that tussle with her rider, and she finished gamely after getting headstrong once again on the turn-back last time; ability is there if she can put things together.  #11 Lady Kreesa is on her way to being the best of these after a pair of promising efforts to start; impressive win vs. maidens last time.  #2 Storied Lady has been going well on dirt and is eligible to handle turf, being a half to Barrel of Love, a six-time winner over grass who has banked over $250k. 
 
Selections:  10-11-2-3
 
 
Race 9:  #2 Countknickerbocker gets a final chance after getting a bad ride and going down to defeat last time despite being clearly best.  #8 Soul House has disappointed too many times, but he may be better over turf, and he was a new gelding off the layoff last time; maybe tighter second back.  #6 Hooked Forever is clearly capable but looks to close and there may not be a set-up for him here.  #10 Sun Worshipper took advantage of a pace meltdown two back, but doesn't project to have as much help this time.  
 
Selections:  2-8-6-10
 
 
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Belmont Analysis for June 21st

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Saturday June 21st
 
Race 1:  #8 Spanish Armada could do no better than 3rd on debut behind a pair of Wesley Ward runners, including the impressive Sunset Glow, who goes next at Royal Ascot; Pletcher much better with maidens on turf in their second start. He will face five first-time starters, so watching the board may help, and another pair from Ward, including the speedy #2 Lamontagne.
 
Selections:  8-5-6-2
 
 
Race 2:  #3 Aesthetique made a nice progression last year at 2, improving her figures with each start, culminating with an impressive 5+ length win over maidens; 3yo debut appeared to be nothing but a prep, as she stayed inside and was allowed to finish on her own power after stumbling at the start.  #1 As Well also rates to improve while making her second start of the year; just needs some pace to set her up.  
 
Selections:  3-1-9-4
 
 
Race 3:  #7 Paddle Board has the top last speed figure in the field by a clear margin, and projects for the right trip up on the pace in a race shape that favors front-runners. #1 Alpaca Fina has run several races in the past that can compete here, and she was badly compromised by the track bias on January 12 (on a dead rail) and March 15 (away from a strong rail); forget about turf try last week.  #5 Money Game had improved her speed figures in every start through the maiden win back in March, which makes it a little disconcerting that she was switched to turf for her first start out of Pletcher's barn.
 
Selections:  7-1-5-2
 
 
Race 4:  #6 Lutheran Miss was against a strong rail in her debut back at Aqueduct, and had no chance with stakes repeater Isabelle after having her turf debut rained off to the main track last month; trainer get perfect 100 rating with turf sprinters.  
 
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#5 Jennys Creek will be competitive here with her best effort, but  that's been the story of her life through 15 career starts.  #7 The Lady's Cruisen debuts for the white-hot Linda Rice and is a half to the four-time turf winner Safari Artie. 
 
Selections:  6-5-7-9
 
 
Race 5:  #8 Jimmy Soul was an unlucky loser of his turf debut after getting the best of a fast duel with a rival who faded to last, only to be run down late by a perfect-trip closer; doesn't figure to get hooked up again, and the trainer is going well at this meet.  
 
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#3 Giant Slayer makes debut for Christophe Clement, who is one of the very few who wins with these horses consistently, and #5 Uptown Joe rates to have developed further from pair of solid 2yo races over this course last October.  
 
Selections:  8-3-5-1
 
 
Race 6: #7 Love to Run is off the layoff, which is a concern, but he was consistently running races that would be very tough on this field last year, and he has enough speed to stay close to the leaders.  Consistent and hard-hitting #4 Frazil may be the one to beat, and he projects to be on the lead early in a race that favors that running style.  #5 St Moose has been going well recently, and he turns back a bit off the claim.  
 
Selections:  7-4-5-8
 
 
Race 7:  #5 Sweet Acclaim is the horse to beat in the $100k Wild Applause stakes for 3yo fillies, as she is well-connected and has run the top TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field, each time for runner-up finishes vs. stakes company.  She was second-best both times, but behind talented runners, and she was game to the finish in each of those starts.  We think she is beatable in this race, and are going to attempt to beat her, but we want to use her in the Pick 4.  #3 Walk Close hasn't been the flashiest of winners in her two career starts to date, but win she has, and, to us, she has displayed some attributes that are much more important than flash:  She has been professional and she has been genuine at crunch time, both indicators of class, as well as ability.  She is 2-for-2 to start her career, and both times she was able to maintain her position going forward while in traffic, and both times she was there for jockey Irad Ortiz when she finally worked her way into the clear.  We want her on top in this race, and will key on her in our Pick 4 play. There are two imports to consider down inside for trainer Rick Mettee, and while either, or both, may turn out to be OK, we could only use them as backups.  #1 My Jolie has been going longer in France this year in group company, and will add blinkers for her stateside debut, while #2 Nisharora hasn't run in over a year and will stretch out beyond six furlongs for the first time, but has attracted a top rider and will be adding lasix.
 
Selections:  3-5-1-2
 
 
Race 8:  Field of 11 claiming fillies and mares set to sprint on turf, a surface over which they have combined to win just 6 races from a collective 79 starts.  To complicate things further, Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap.  
 
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ML favorite #3 Love to Score has kept the best company, has run some of the fastest races, and is dropping in class.  But she also projects to be involved in that fast pace for a trainer who has won with just 2 of his last 45 starters dating back to last month.  We are happy to try to beat her assuming the field stays intact and she does indeed go postward at a relatively short price.  We will try to get through the sequence using #2 Happy Recap (who is by Big Brown, a relatively new sire whose foals are a remarkable 11-for-46 in turf sprints as of this writing), #6 Kilnockagain, who made her turf debut vs. a much better group last time, and ran well without a perfect trip, #7 My Bella Beauty, who was given a break by an excellent trainer after going off form, and class-dropping #11 Lumineuse.  
 
Selections:  7-11-2-6
 
 
Race 9:  The Grade 3 Bed O' Roses drew a competitive field of 11 fillies and mares and, lacking a standout favorite in the field, may well be determined by who gets the seven furlongs most effectively (only four of the entrants have posted a prior win over this trip, and one of those, Flattering Bea (#3, 10-1), has done it only at Charles Town, where the seven-furlong races are contested around two-turns) and, more specifically, by the pace of the race.  
 
Pace Projector indicates that the likeliest runners to be up front early on are #2 Five Star Momma, #4 Ultimate Shopper, and #11 Lion D N A, and indeed, they are all speed-types who do their best running up on the pace, though Lion D N A appears more versatile than the other two and benefits from her outside draw.  She actually exits a stakes win at Pimlico last month in which she was able to sit back in a perfect tracking trip as Flattering Bea got herself involved in a race-long duel.  Still, she'll want to be forwardly placed in here, as will Flattering Bea, who emerges from her two most recent tries sporting a pair of new top speed figures, both earned with a new front-running style.  It's hard to believe that her connections would be looking to revert to her closing ways of the past, considering recent results, so we'll expect her to show speed once again.  #9 Classic Point is another who could add fuel to the early fire, as she has won, or even run reasonably well, only when able to be part of the pace, and she turns back after showing the way early in that strong edition of the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps.  
 
With that group of horses all, perhaps, looking to be involved early, we think that there is a good chance that a strong pace develops in the Bed O' Roses, and for that reason, we are looking for off-the-pace types in this race.  The first closer to catch the eye is #10 Street Girl, who just finished second in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff behind the talented Midnight Lucky.  Street Girl also ran quite well to be a close 4th in the Grade 1 Ballerina last summer, and did so as a 3yo against older fillies & mares.  She doesn't sprint very often, but she has run some of the best races in the field over this distance and is difficult to leave out.  We can't say we love her, especially if she winds up favored, as the ML suggests she might be, but we'll leave her in our mix.
 
The horse we are most interested in having our money on in this race is #1 Table Three Ten.  Table Three Ten figures to be one of the biggest prices in the field, and, while we can understand why when looking at her running lines, we think she may have more to offer than the bare form indicates.  Clearly, as a 5yo mare with only eight career starts to this point, she has had some problems.  But she began her career as a highly promising prospect, posted back-to-back impressive wins sprinting, and was purchased privately by Team Valor International after her blowout debut win (note that she put up a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, as a 2yo).  Since those two wins, Table Three Ten has sprinted on dirt only three times.  She won in the Parx mud in her return from a long layoff last September, and then ran much better than it may appear when trying to rally over a speed-favoring track down at Gulfstream in the Hollywood Beach Stakes. Take the short comment in the chart for that race, "passed tired ones," with a grain of salt, as she did much more running than that through the stretch, and just missed getting up for 3rd while against the track in there.  In her last start, she tried to come wide after a front-running winner back at Parx and could only be second best.  The rail draw shouldn't be a huge obstacle for her to overcome, as we think she will be letting the speed go in front of her anyway, and if she can catch some pace to run into over a fair track, we think she may be good enough to get a big piece of this race, and to perhaps spring the upset. 
 
We are also interested in using a little of #7 Calistoga in this race, as she is another who has flashed potential. She has some legitimate excuses for not having accomplished more to this point.  She will need to break through with a top effort in order to contend in here, but she is versatile enough to pull the right trip and is a square number on the morning line, as well.
  
Selections:  1-7-10-8
 
 
Race 10:  Tough race to close out the sequence, as nine evenly matched NY-breds will line up to travel 1 1/16 miles. Our Pace Projector for this race indicates that the running will favor horses on or near the early lead, and that is expected to play to the advantage of #6 Ultimate Empire.  That view of the race makes sense to us, so we will use that horse, despite our not being big fans of his.  The other horses for us are #1 The Brothers Rap, #5 Quiet Power, and #8 Sir Leslie.  We have been doing some chasing of #9 Effinex, so will use him as a backup while recognizing that he may be up against the pace dynamics.
 
Selections:  1-9-5-8
 
 
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