Friday, May 30, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
Race 1: #9 Jeter goes first off the claim for Jacobson, and he's run well with some excuses recently; can get to a race that would be very competitive here. #1A B Shanny figures tough in this spot with his typical effort, but there are some questions as he drops way down in price after making only one start for these connections (and it was a good one) off the claim. #10 Dr Disco switches back to dirt after a non-effort on grass, and he's proven handy enough to take up a tracking position from his outside post.
Race 2: Kingston likely coming down to trips, with any one of six of the eight entered for grass capable of winning. #8 Notacatbutallama will have to improve to take down his more experienced rivals here, but remains eligible to do so as a new 4yo, so we'll land there for now. #3 Hear the Footsteps has only won sprinting, but has run his race going longer, is always competitive, and is likely to be a playable price.
Race 3: #2 Flipcup gets a turn-back after putting in a good run in open company allowance at Churchill off the layoff, and that may really work for her based on her first two career starts, which both resulted in impressive victories; lone prior start vs. NY-breds was a convincing win in the East View.
#5 Henry's Gal has good early speed and could easily be undefeated heading into this spot for top connections; never been seven furlongs, but got 6.5 in each of last two wins without issue. #3 Isabelle an interesting wild card after blitzing off-the-turf maidens in the mud with a big figure.
Race 4: #5 Effie Trinket figures tough in this spot after acquitting herself very well in graded stakes company recently; drops down to face fellow NY-breds for the first time since taking pair of stakes here last fall. #3 Frosty Bay is off the layoff, but eligible to improve after posting solid 3yo form on turf. #7 Roses for Romney returned from the layoff with a trainer change to Clement, and arguably ran the best race of her career despite getting very headstrong in the early stages. #2 Mah Jong Maddnes was much improved last year at 4, and picked up where she left off in first start of 2014, mowing down sprinters from off of a fast pace.
Race 5: #2 Uncle Sigh has run one fast race after another to start his career, and won't be easy to down at a short price here. As alternatives, we would look to #6 John's Island, who has put in back-to-back big stretch runs off the trainer change to Jimmy Jerkens, or the undefeated and unclassified #10 Captain Serious.
Race 6: #3 Powerful Instinct showed big improvement with the trainer change to Chad Brown at the end of last year, and lands in a spot here that projects to have a solid pace to set up his run. #6 So Lonesome remains unexposed and reunites with Rosario after failing to impact in pair of graded stakes tries. #2 Sneaky Kitten often settles for minor awards, but he is consistent and his typical effort is competitive here.
Race 7: #5 La Verdad remains a question mark outside of sprint distances, but she may simply be too good for her competition here after hanging up a big figure when burying Grade 2 foes last month. #8 Tahoe Tigress has improved greatly since being claimed and, assuming La Verdad makes things difficult on the horses up close, will be running at the end. #3 Miss Da Point has never been better, winning 5 of her last 7, and has tactical speed. #1 Sunny Desert returned from almost a year on the sidelines to give game chase to La Verdad in the slop; had won 8-of-9 prior to that, including all three starts over this distance. #4 Macha, a new face shipping in from California and dropping out of a Grade 1, won her dirt debut in February, but figures to offer little value in this spot, which is not as easy as it may seem.
Race 8: #6 Waterway endured a tough trip as part of a contested pace in a race that went to closers in turf debut, and raced on well through the stretch to get a piece. #12 Soul House earned a solid figure for his lone turf try, and he was also part of a contested pace that day, but he's disappointed at short prices several times already. #8 Sanctify switches to turf with lasix on for Mott, and he has plenty of pedigree to lean on.
Race 9: Strong running of the Commentator figures to be a war from start to finish. With a fast pace projected, Chad Brown holds a strong hand, and we'll go to the better-priced option of his two in #7 Readtheprospectus. The layoff is the concern, but he was improving from start to start during long winning streak prior to going to the bench, and was done in by a biased racetrack in his last start. #10 Pinball may be compromised by the pace, but he is better on dirt and is finally switching back. #5 Zivo has never been better, and is going to appreciate having some pace to run into.
Race 10: #2 Barrier to Entry is going to be a huge price, but she showed a little run in her debut, is bred for this surface switch (a Pedigree Rating of 89 for turf sprints), and may benefit from the addition of blinkers after getting very rank in last two starts.
#6 Winter Wish was very unlucky in her debut after a tough trip, and did some running in her first start back from a long layoff. #11 Distorted Beauty flashed some ability in a tough race on debut, and is eligible to come forward quickly.