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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for June 4

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Analysis for Wednesday's Card at Belmont
Race 1:  Opener offers an array of interesting turn-backs, but the confirmed sprinters are #5 Handy Stan and #1 Make a Fortune.  Make a Fortune got the best of a pace duel before succumbing late last time, but Pace Projector indicates that Handy Stan is quicker early, and will be in front of him here.  
#6 Inmyfathersimage turns back off the claim, and he has a huge late pace advantage on this field, but he has never sprinted through 12 prior starts, and may not get the right set-up here to use it effectively.
Selections:  5-6-3-2
Race 2:  #4 Shipwrecked ran better than it may appear in his turf debut after having severe trouble at the start and then taking a game wide run through the turn before tiring; drops into the right kind of field.  #2 The Mooche makes his 3yo debut as a new gelding, and he came through with a much improved effort second-time out last summer.  #10 Giant Jo is the ML favorite after running well enough in both turf starts last year, and he also drops in class for his 3yo debut.
Selections:  4-2-10-9
Race 3:  #3 Brass Pear has found a pair of tough spots recently, but he has really picked up his form over the past several months, and his races three-and-four back are faster than anything ML favorite #1 Ghost Hunter has ever run on our figures; getting the mile is a concern, but Pace Projector puts him on a clear lead early, which may be enough of an advantage.  
Ghost Hunter is the one to beat as he gets the class relief he needs; easiest spot he's ever been in, obviously.
Selections:  3-1-2-6
Race 4:  #10 Wake Up and Go drew a tough post for this distance on the inner turf, but he has run the best races by far and will benefit from the drop in class.  We'll make #4 Mineral Water our other horse, as he began his career with some promise before falling off, and now gets some class relief, which may help to wake him up.  #5 Born in Brooklyn didn't do much running in his turf debut last out, but can be expected to benefit from the class drop as well.  
Selections:  10-4-5-7
Race 5:  We're expecting #3 Captain Toews to come forward as a 3yo, as he made an impressive run through the stretch in his debut to close down a clear leader, and was then badly compromised by inside, speed-favoring tracks in his next two starts; we thought he'd be a price in here, but if he is bet as the ML suggests, we will have to pass.  
If we can't take him, we'll give #1 Native Hero another chance coming back to the right kind of level in his second start off of a short freshening.  #6 American Creed is logical with tactical speed, and is difficult to eliminate.
Selections:  3-1-6-7
Race 6:  We think #8 Wayward Sailor has the speed to make the front in here, and he has back races to get him involved here at a fair price; caught up contesting the pace in a tougher $25k claimer here last time.  #5 Sleepless Knight sat a perfect trip stalking #7 Exporter as that one controlled the pace last time, and flat overpowered him in the stretch; they should both be factors right back at the same level here.  #2 Le Deluge hasn't notched a win since his marathon days at Presque Isle a couple of years ago, but he's holding competitive form for a top trainer.
Selections:  8-5-7-2
Race 7:  #4 Otoy has been facing way tougher since returned to turf as a 3yo, and gets a major rider change for the drop in class here.  We'll take him over #9 Lead Singer, who gets back to his best surface here with some class relief, and returnee #7 Bold Forest, whom we are obligated to continue chasing for a while after failing to get him home in any of his NY starts last year.
Selections:  4-9-7-11
Race 8:  #5 Rock Fall made a highly impressive local debut, sprinting away from maidens over good going for Pletcher; we aren't going to stand against him here, but he is far from a layover.  #1 Tiznowforamerica began his career with promise last summer, and his two dismal efforts at the end of the year are easily forgivable (has the built-in synthetic excuse for the G1 at Keeneland, and was part of a pace that fell apart in the G2 Nashua).  #4 Real Estate Rich has been compromised by slow paces recently, and #6 American Progress looks much better on our data than he does elsewhere and is going to be a big price in here.
Selections:  5-6-1-4
Race 9:  #1 Saythreehailmary's takes the next step after burying maidens over this track and trip less than two weeks ago.  #7 Rumble Doll finished gamely too late behind #10 Accomplish First last time, and they feel like the two main challengers to the favorite.  
Selections:  1-7-10-5

TimeformUS Analysis for June 1

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  First 2yo race of 2014 in NY contains 4 fillies and 3 colts.  #2 Daredevil is a half to G1-winning millionaire Albertus Maximus and sports a solid work tab for Pletcher, who wins plenty of these races.  #4 Richie's Trix is one of the fillies for 2yo ace Wesley Ward, though his numbers debuting in NY aren't nearly as strong as they are elsewhere. #6 Big Trouble brought a big ticket for a yearling by Tiz Wonderful and ships in from Fair Hill for a top trainer.
Selections: 2-6-4-3
Race 2:  Potential seems to be there for a solid pace to develop, which would be to the advantage of returnee #3 Loveisheartandsoul, who parlayed a perfect trip into a convincing score at Aqueduct last November, then improved upon that effort despite trouble at the break in his next start.  We prefer him to Linda Rice's other horse, #10 Madam I'm Adam, who will be a shorter price.  Well-connected shipper #5 Hot Sand and #6 Smokey Brown, exiting a wide trip in first start off the layoff, are our backups. 
Selections:  3-5-6-1
Race 3:  #2 Thirteen Arrows made a promising debut at Gulfstream, and deserves a chance to rebound after getting hooked into a fast duel and tiring in start number 2.  
Wild cards are #10 Hijaab, a first-time starter for Shadwell/McLaughlin, who is from a family full of graded stakes winners, and #1 Silver Union, who moves off synthetic and into the barn of George Weaver, who excels with runners racing out of his barn for the first time (100 rating).  
Selections:  2-10-1-5
Race 4:  #10 Aesthetique tries again after having her first couple of turf races rained off this year;  flashed plenty of potential as a 2yo, and impressed when burying maidens in her final start last year.  #2 Old Harbor is an interesting price to include as she cuts back to a sprint after getting rank and headstrong going longer last time. Interested to see what we get from #6 Fancy Boss, who was a suspicious drop off the layoff after impressing greatly as a 2yo, but ran away from that field as though none the worse for wear; claimed by very sharp trainer.  
Selections:  10-2-6-11
Race 5:  #5 Thomas Hill landed in tough spot when returned from Florida, and came through with his typical strong effort; this is easier, and this is his game.  #9 Which Market is an interesting player first off the claim for Hushion; reliant on pace to set up his run, so we'll see if he gets enough. 
Selections:  5-9-6-7
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Race 6:  Interesting race on paper will likely be changed greatly by scratches, with four of the ten cross-entered into races on Saturday's card, including both halves of the entry. We'll see what the field looks like come post time, but we are interested in #9 Alternative Meds, who returns from the layoff after making great strides once switched over to grass last year.  #7 Strike Accord was unlucky last time, being moved right into traffic coming to the stretch and almost going down after clipping heels; she may be the horse to beat, but she's one we don't like to take short prices on, for obvious reasons.
Selections:  9-7-4-3-1
Race 7:  #9 Springcourt couldn't get to front-running #1 Seeker last time, but figures to have a better set up this time (cue Pace Projector).  He's a short price though, and the expected fast pace should benefit #6 Mr. Espresso, as well, and he is capable of taking advantage at a better price.
Selections:  6-9-2-4
Race 8:  #6 Stableford was a progressive three-year-old in Europe last season, and made a promising run in his stateside debut off the layoff; won't need to move forward much from there.  
#3 Play It Loud has been an in-and-outer to this point, but his good ones are quite good, and perhaps Motion can keep him heading the right way.  
Selections:  6-3-10-9
Race 9:  #8 Channel Boy is switching to turf off the claim by Linda Rice, a move that may suit considering that he is a half to the multiple Grade 3 turfer Channel Lady, who has made over $344k on that surface; won't need to be that good vs. this crew.  #12 The Mooche could prove dangerous with the class relief if in off the AE list.
Selections: 8-12-10-4
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TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Saturday May 31

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #9 Jeter goes first off the claim for Jacobson, and he's run well with some excuses recently; can get to a race that would be very competitive here.  #1A B Shanny figures tough in this spot with his typical effort, but there are some questions as he drops way down in price after making only one start for these connections (and it was a good one) off the claim.  #10 Dr Disco switches back to dirt after a non-effort on grass, and he's proven handy enough to take up a tracking position from his outside post.  
Selections:  9-1A-10-1
Race 2:  Kingston likely coming down to trips, with any one of six of the eight entered for grass capable of winning.  #8 Notacatbutallama will have to improve to take down his more experienced rivals here, but remains eligible to do so as a new 4yo, so we'll land there for now.  #3 Hear the Footsteps has only won sprinting, but has run his race going longer, is always competitive, and is likely to be a playable price.
Selections:  8-4-3-1-7
Race 3:  #2 Flipcup gets a turn-back after putting in a good run in open company allowance at Churchill off the layoff, and that may really work for her based on her first two career starts, which both resulted in impressive victories; lone prior start vs. NY-breds was a convincing win in the East View.  
#5 Henry's Gal has good early speed and could easily be undefeated heading into this spot for top connections; never been seven furlongs, but got 6.5 in each of last two wins without issue.  #3 Isabelle an interesting wild card after blitzing off-the-turf maidens in the mud with a big figure. 
Selections:  2-5-3-8
Race 4:  #5 Effie Trinket figures tough in this spot after acquitting herself very well in graded stakes company recently; drops down to face fellow NY-breds for the first time since taking pair of stakes here last fall.  #3 Frosty Bay is off the layoff, but eligible to improve after posting solid 3yo form on turf.  #7 Roses for Romney returned from the layoff with a trainer change to Clement, and arguably ran the best race of her career despite getting very headstrong in the early stages.  #2 Mah Jong Maddnes was much improved last year at 4, and picked up where she left off in first start of 2014, mowing down sprinters from off of a fast pace.  
Selections:  5-3-7-2-1
Race 5:  #2 Uncle Sigh has run one fast race after another to start his career, and won't be easy to down at a short price here.  As alternatives, we would look to #6 John's Island, who has put in back-to-back big stretch runs off the trainer change to Jimmy Jerkens, or the undefeated and unclassified #10 Captain Serious.
Selections:  2-6-10-1
Race 6:  #3 Powerful Instinct showed big improvement with the trainer change to Chad Brown at the end of last year, and lands in a spot here that projects to have a solid pace to set up his run.  #6 So Lonesome remains unexposed and reunites with Rosario after failing to impact in pair of graded stakes tries.  #2 Sneaky Kitten often settles for minor awards, but he is consistent and his typical effort is competitive here. 
Selections:  3-6-2-7
Race 7:  #5 La Verdad remains a question mark outside of sprint distances, but she may simply be too good for her competition here after hanging up a big figure when burying Grade 2 foes last month.  #8 Tahoe Tigress has improved greatly since being claimed and, assuming La Verdad makes things difficult on the horses up close, will be running at the end. #3 Miss Da Point has never been better, winning 5 of her last 7, and has tactical speed.  #1 Sunny Desert returned from almost a year on the sidelines to give game chase to La Verdad in the slop; had won 8-of-9 prior to that, including all three starts over this distance.  #4 Macha, a new face shipping in from California and dropping out of a Grade 1, won her dirt debut in February, but figures to offer little value in this spot, which is not as easy as it may seem. 
Selections:  5-8-3-1
Race 8:  #6 Waterway endured a tough trip as part of a contested pace in a race that went to closers in turf debut, and raced on well through the stretch to get a piece.  #12 Soul House earned a solid figure for his lone turf try, and he was also part of a contested pace that day, but he's disappointed at short prices several times already.  #8 Sanctify switches to turf with lasix on for Mott, and he has plenty of pedigree to lean on.
Selections:  6-12-8-7
Race 9:  Strong running of the Commentator figures to be a war from start to finish.  With a fast pace projected, Chad Brown holds a strong hand, and we'll go to the better-priced option of his two in #7 Readtheprospectus.  The layoff is the concern, but he was improving from start to start during long winning streak prior to going to the bench, and was done in by a biased racetrack in his last start.  #10 Pinball may be compromised by the pace, but he is better on dirt and is finally switching back.  #5 Zivo has never been better, and is going to appreciate having some pace to run into.
Selections:  7-10-5-11
Race 10:  #2 Barrier to Entry is going to be a huge price, but she showed a little run in her debut, is bred for this surface switch (a Pedigree Rating of 89 for turf sprints), and may benefit from the addition of blinkers after getting very rank in last two starts.  
#6 Winter Wish was very unlucky in her debut after a tough trip, and did some running in her first start back from a long layoff.  #11 Distorted Beauty flashed some ability in a tough race on debut, and is eligible to come forward quickly. 
Selections:  2-6-11-1

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Friday May 30

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #2 Cool Cat Tale is getting what could be a major trainer change for his second start: to Michael Mareina, who has been quiet lately, but has made some noise around here over the past few years, and is still pulling a 91 trainer rating; won't take much improvement against this field.  #4 Safari Samba ran well enough without a perfect trip last time, and is still eligible to improve for Rudy.  Both #6 Island Therapy and #7 Political Farce are contenders exiting a tough race for the level, but they've had enough chances already.
Selections:  2-4-7-6
Race 2:  Significant drop in class here for #9 Daddy Loves Gold, who found a very tough spot off the layoff (99 race rating, as compared to today's 77), and she wound up chasing a hot pace that day (denoted by Pace Figures for the race leader in red).  
As an added advantage, Pace Projector places her in front this time in a race that favors that running style.  #10 Thundering Gale has handled the switch over to grass, posting a win going long, and making solid late runs in each of her two sprint starts; picks up Castellano for this.  Our backup in the Pick 5 will be #7 Radiant Cut, whose best game is sprinting on turf, which she has gotten to do only once since a convincing maiden score in 2012, and that came after almost a year layoff.
Selections:  9-7-10-1
Race 3:  #1 Roman Approval made a promising run for 2nd behind stakes-bound Bay of Plenty in his first start since shipping in to race for trainer Mike Hushion (who gets a perfect 100 rating with horses making their second start out of his barn); was banging heads with fellow import Tonito M. in Puerto Rico before arriving stateside, and that horse finished 2nd in graded stakes competition at Santa Anita earlier in the month.  
#2 Charge Now is well-bred and well-connected, and is expected to be a short price in this spot; we weren't blown away with his maiden win at GP, but recognize his upside.  #6 Long Water finally broke through with a win in start number 7, but it came against a modest field and didn't earn a strong figure.
Selections:  1-2-6-5
Race 4:  #9 Acrostic was eliminated from contention in her debut before putting in a solid effort vs. better here last May; layoff is the obvious concern, but Castellano sees fit to ride. #8 Saratoga Karaoke is running out of chances quickly, if she hasn't used them up already, but she had a tough go of it last time when forced into a long wide run through the turn.  #11 Benny's Bullet ran well in both starts over this track and trip last fall and now drops down after giving way badly in her 3yo debut.  
Selections:  9-8-11-3
Race 5:  #8 Chisholm was last seen chasing next-out Grade 3 winner Dunkin Bend over a speed-favoring track at Saratoga last summer; starts back for Pletcher, who is rated highly off layoffs (95) and with runners dropping from MSW to MCL (100).  
#1 Ruby's Rocketman also drops in class, with more recency than the top one, while switching from turf to dirt for a new barn.  #3 Eight Cents is the fastest horse in the race to this point, but is obviously vulnerable to one of his more lightly raced opponents stepping forward.
Selections:  8-1-3-6
Race 6:  #3 Favor Factor was a promising 3yo turf runner last year, but his lone starts on that surface following a convincing allowance score at Saratoga last July have come in the Grade 3 Saranac and then in a race at Gulfstream against Kaigun and Hey Leroy, a pair of horses who have acquitted themselves very well in graded stakes competition this year; figures tough in this field with one of his good races.  Not much separating the rest, although #1 Wind of Bosphorus projects for a clear early lead in a race that may favor that running style. 
Selections:  3-1-7-2
Race 7:  #4 Run a Dubb Dubb has been holding very good form, including a three-race win streak earlier this year, and she was ahead of a couple of these when clearly second-best behind a sharp wire-to-wire winner last time; Pace Projector indicates that there is enough speed signed on to give her a fair chance.  
#3 Humorus Dilemma has done nothing wrong while using her speed to good effect in a pair of well-spaced starts, and should still have some improvement in her.  #7 Your Time Is Up has been flat in her two most recent starts after putting together three straight wins with competitive figures over the winter; needs to rebound in order to contend here.
Selections:  4-3-1-7
Race 8:  #6 Premium has a very big pedigree and began her career with promise before falling off badly last year; surprised that lasix isn't listed as part of the package, but McLaughlin has a history of success with imports, especially on grass.  #5 Frege is just 1-for-14, but she's run well enough to win a race like this several times, including her last start at Gulfstream, where she got going a little too late and just missed; should have some pace to run at in this spot.  #10 Roses for Romney made a nice return from the layoff with a trainer change to Clement and is a very dangerous horse in this race, as long as she settles early.
Selections:  6-5-10-1
Race 9:  #5 None Like Nolan has finished up well in both dirt sprints to begin his career, and will now make a surface switch that figures to suit him based on his pedigree (his dam was Grade 2 placed and her 4 career wins all came on turf, and she is from the female family of Naissance Royale, a multiple graded stakes winner on turf around here a few years ago).  #1 Social Affair is also very well-bred, and he rates to improve in his 3yo debut after displaying some promise last year.  #10 Kato has run well on the dirt in his last two starts, and he has enough turf in his pedigree to handle the change for an underrated trainer. 
Selections:  5-1-10-4