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Belmont Analysis for Wednesday May 21

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #2 Offlee Catty ran well enough to win this race with a 70 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her debut, and didn't get the cleanest trip in the world last time despite an alert break.  Trainer gets a strong 92 rating with blinkers-on, and Pace Projector indicates that this filly has the best early speed in this matchup.  
 
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TimeformUS Trainer Ratings box for our selection in Race 1.  
 
Both #5 Baby B and #6 Official are dropping in class while turning back, the former while switching from turf to dirt, the latter with a trainer change to David Jacobson (100 trainer rating with that move), but we'll take the improved #4 Mary's In Utopia as our other horse, as she enters here third off the layoff after earning the top figure in the field last out.  
 
Selections:  2-4-6-5-3
 
 
Race 2:  We were impressed with #4 Brilliant Command in both starts last year, as he displayed ability despite not getting an easy trip in his debut, and then raced much better than it looks despite having no chance from behind a slow pace after that; returns from the layoff for a red-hot trainer.  #8 Dr. Abramson appeared to be prepping in speed-favoring Keeneland synthetic sprint debut, and now stretches out on grass, which his pedigree suggests will suit him better (TimeformUS Pedigree Rating of 84 for turf routes; his dam is a sister to Spring House, a multiple graded stakes winner who made over $1.1 million on grass).   
 
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Race Rating shaded in dark red in PPs for #8 Dr. Abramson denotes a strong speed bias on that day.  Click here for more information on TimeformUS Bias Indicators.
 
#5 Knight of Valor also figures to improve in his second start after finishing with some interest from far back in his debut.
 
Selections:  4-8-5-6-3
 
 
Race 3:  #1 Imagine Tomorrow blew away a field of two-life claimers with a strong speed figure three starts back, and has been placed in way over her head in her next two starts; Jealous, the horse she left behind on February 1st, has subsequently confirmed the strength of that performance by finishing close up to the ML favorites in this field,
#5 Purling and #6 Rettalfa, and then posting a blowout win of her own.  #7 Bridgetta returns from a long layoff for the streaking Bruce Brown and has races to get back to that make her almost unbeatable in here, but those efforts came in 2012, and it doesn't seem that she could be any kind of interesting price in this race. 
 
Selections:  1-6-7-4-5
 
 
Race 4:  Tough turf sprint for NY-breds brings several contenders back from layoffs, so we'll take one with recency in #6 Jitney.  Just 2-for-10 on turf in her career, we think she's better than the bare record indicates, and Pace Projector for this race has several up there together early, which would help her late kick.  #5 White Sangria is the horse to beat off a pair of strong efforts at Gulfstream, the last one just failing to stop the late run of recent stakes winner Free as a Bird.  #9 Neck of the Moon is a logical contender off the layoff for Chad Brown, though she was consistently over-bet last year.  
 
Selections:  6-5-9-10-7
 
 
Race 5:  #5 Sea Trial has only been OK though three career starts, but she does figure to appreciate getting to try a dirt route (95 pedigree rating) for the first time, and if her main rival is the #1 Palestrina, then that may make this an even better spot.  We wouldn't overlook the two turf-to-dirt runners entirely, as #2 Rapid Repair and #4 Lusaka may move forward on the main track--Lusaka in particular, as she was part of a contested pace that collapsed in her last start, and has more of a dirt pedigree, being by Distorted Humor and out of a dam who is a half-sister to 2yo champion Halfbridled.  
 
Selections:  5-4-1-2-1A
 
 
Race 6:  #3 Legendary raced on well to be a clear second-best to the impressive Draw Two over 1 1/2 miles at Keeneland in his stateside debut, and along with #2 Papy, figures to have landed in a likely spot here.  Papy picked up the pieces in an unimpressive off-the-turf route here opening week, and he was a perfect-trip winner going long when last on grass. #1 Away Game is at least one to consider as he tries 1 1/4 miles and turf for the first time with a perfect 100 pedigree rating for the assignment.  
 
Selections:  3-2-1-6-4
 
 
Race 7:  Pace Projector indicates that there could be a contested pace in this race, which would benefit #2 Another Incident, who impressed breaking her maiden from off the pace in a one-turn mile at the end of last year and has been in vs. some tougher horses in Florida since then.  Cuts back a bit here for a trainer off to a good start at the meet.
 
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TimeformUS Pace Projector, shown here for Race 7, displays the expected running positions after 1/4 mile for sprints; 1/2 mile for races one mile or over.  To see Pace Projector for all of today's Belmont card, click here to purchase our PPs for just $3.
 
#6 Star Magnolia stepped it way up first off the claim, routing maiden claimers in a race that went faster than older male claimers two races earlier on the card; distance may be a challenge for her with some other speed signed on.  
 
Selections:  2-6-5-3-7
 
 
Race 8:  #8 Filimbi finished ahead of several of these despite a less-than-clean trip at Keeneland last out, and does appear to be the one to beat after arriving here having won three of her last four in France.  We will use her, while taking a shot against her with #3 Gathering, who has flashed plenty of potential despite her quirks, and was given a no-chance trip and ride when behind Filimbi last time.  
 
Selections:  3-8-5-6-2
 
 
Race 9:  #3 Vagarious has been in some tough spots on the main track, and now switches to turf, which figures to suit him, as his dam, whose only career start was a winning effort on grass, is a half-sister to the multiple Grade 1 winner Perfect Sting, who made over $1 million on grass.  #2 Macgone had plenty of excuses in his open-company debut and can do better here.  #7 Point Roll disappointed as a heavy favorite over good ground vs. NY-breds at Aqueduct, but he had some issues in that race, and is going to be very tough in here if running back to his debut.  
 
Selections:  3-2-7-6-8
 
 
 
 
 
 

Belmont Analysis for Sunday May 18

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #4 My Won Love hasn't had a fair chance yet through three career starts.  She was wide and outrun over a track that was heavily slanted towards speed and the inside in her debut, then caught slop behind a runaway winner, then went long on grass last time.  Drops down here for a red-hot barn.  
 
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The race rating box for the Mar 15 race for our selection in Race 1 is shaded in dark red to indicate a strong speed bias that day.  Click here for more information on our track bias indicators.
 
#3 Sensual Nite projects to be the speed, and will be our other horse.
 
Selections:  4-3-2-1-5
 
 
Race 2:  Strong first-level allowance on turf offers several win candidates to choose from.  We were impressed with the sustained run put in by #9 Fashion Fund at Keeneland, and she was a progressive sort overseas, so we'll go there for a top pick, and would like to play her at something like the ML price.  Our other main use is #2 Patsy's Holiday, who projects for a good trip and has run well in all three starts for Pletcher.  
 
Selections:  9-2-1-5-9
 
 
Race 3:  #7 Chairman Now drops out of what could be considered a stakes-quality $25k claimer (winner earned a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure), and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with claimers down 50% or more in price.
 
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TimeformUS Trainer Ratings Box for the trainer of our selection in Race 3.  Click here for more information on our trainer ratings.
 
#4 Tizmas is the logical horse to beat as he drops for a strong barn, and Pace Projector indicates that he will be able to make the lead in here. 
 
Selections:  7-4-3-5-6
 
 
Race 4:  Pace Projector favors runners placed up close, so we're hoping that #6 G Note, who wired a field to break her maiden on the dirt in December, can sit a bit closer this time.  
 
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Pace Projector for Race 4 shows our selection, #6, close to the pace in a race favoring a horse on/near the lead.  Pace Projector is available for all races; click here to purchase today's Belmont card.
 
She was rated back and was in some traffic in the upper stretch before running late and galloping out big last time, and we think she can be tough in here if moving forward from that effort.  
 
Selections:  6-5-8-1-2
 
 
Race 5:  #1 Hines is a deep closer with a strong Late Pace rating (98), and he was a very good second without a very good trip at Keeneland last time; gets more ground to work with here.  
 
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This is from our Preview Tab for Race 5, showing the running style designations, and the early (on the left) and late pace ratings for each horse.  Click here for more information on the early and late pace ratings.
 
#8 Boss Man is a bit overdue for a win, as he has run well enough to break his maiden more than once already, and his speed makes him dangerous.  #7 Telic is an interesting price to include, with a big Pedigree Rating for this surface switch (his dam is out of the great Islington), and he will add lasix while running out of Clement's barn for the first time. 
 
Selections:  1-8-9-7-5
 
 
Race 6:  #2 Sweet Acclaim ran very well to be 2nd best to a strong winner in Grade 3 company at Keeneland, and she figures to still have upside as a lightly raced 3yo.  #5 Macaroon was cooked chasing a scorcher of a pace in the Grade 1 Ashland last time, but her turf efforts prior to that were strong, and she is dangerous in here if able to avoid a battle with speedy #3 Richies Party Girl
 
Selections:  2-5-3-4-1
 
 
Race 7:  #2 Sense of Peace isn't easy to take in this race as he makes his first start back after being vanned off the turf last July.  But he ran a series of fast races on the dirt prior to that, and he has speed in a race that favors front runners, according to Pace Projector.  If he isn't ready right off the bench, or simply can't run anymore, then this looks like a nice spot for the in-form #6 Deadicated Deal.  
 
Selections:  2-6-3-5-6
 
 
Race 8:  #7 Quay has done little wrong through her first 8 starts, and enters here off of back-to-back top figures at Gulfstream, which includes a game win over stakes-quality rival Wholelottashakin.  Lone start over this track/trip last October was a strong effort falling just short of #2 Corporate Culture despite not getting the run of the race that day.  #3 Good So Far can win, but may wind up over-bet after getting a perfect trip to win over Keeneland's synthetic surface last time. 
 
Selections:  7-2-3-8-6
 
 
Race 9:  Finale looks like a good race to try a new face, and we find #5 Southbound Swinger most interesting.  After making a long, wide run into a strong pace in her debut over synthetic, she switches to turf, which may be her preferred surface based on her pedigree (a pedigree rating of 88 for turf sprints; dam a full sister to Senor Swinger, a multiple graded stakes winner on grass, and Southbound Swinger's half-brother has 2 career wins, both in turf sprints).  
 
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TimeformUS past performances for our selection in Race 9 show her Pedigree Rating of 88 for turf sprints.  Click here to learn more about our Pedigree Ratings.
 
#1 Benny's Bullet has run well in both turf sprints to date, and may be the horse to beat.  
 
Selections:  5-9-11-1-3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Saturday May 17

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  Tough to have a strong opinion in the opener, with well-connected drop-downs switching surfaces and likely to take some money, and a Pletcher Gulfstream invader who hasn't looked that good.  We'll try #2 Neilos, who made his 3yo debut on turf and now switches back to the main track (trainer gets 100 rating turf-to-dirt). His juvenile dirt form was okay. 

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Trainer ratings box for the trainer of our selection in Race 1.Click here to learn more about TimeformUS Trainer Ratings.

Selections:  2-5-6-3-1

 
Race 2:  #4 Don't Blame Her debuted in a tough spot vs. subsequent Grade 1 winner Artemis Agrotera at Saratoga, and paid the price for trying to race that rival early.  Won't judge her off of that distant finish, and will give her a chance to make a fresh start.  #2 Pearls for Girls has run well in both starts vs. fellow NY-breds, and is the horse to beat with lasix on for the first time.  
 
Selections:  4-2-1-7
 
 
Race 3:  May not be easy to down #2 Misconnect as he returns from a long absence for Pletcher. He was a determined winner when last seen almost 8 months ago, but where has he been since that race?  We have been waiting for #4 Louisiana Flyboy to turn back in distance, which happens here, and his trainer couldn't be going any better through the first three weeks of this meet. We will also use a little #1 Classic Salsa, who had a monster trip here opening day.  
 
Selections:  4-1-2-5-3
 
 
Race 4:  Will keep an eye on the board as it pertains to the first-time starters, but we are giving #3 All My Memories one final chance here.  He was against the track in each of his last two starts (wide off a gold rail two back, down along a dead rail last time), and he did not get great trips in his two 7-furlong efforts prior to that.  
 
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Recent chart comments from the running lines for our selection in Race 4.  Our extended chart comments provide more detail on a horse's trip.  Click here to see how TimeformUS is different.
 
#1 Grand Strand earned a big figure last time with the benefit of a perfect trip chasing a fast rival.  Both the Pletcher and Kimmel firsters in here are bred for grass, but #2 Stockholder is from a strong Phipps female family and was working well in California before arriving here.  
 
Selections:  3-2-1-5-4
 
 
Race 5:  #1 Cabo Cat has some ability. He just needs a little pace to develop in front of him to have his best chance, and with #5 Chart Topper and #2 Green Mask showing speed, and #3 Otoy possibly doing the same, he just may get it. 
 
Selections:  1-5-2-3-4
 
 
Race 6:  Will be interesting to see how this race breaks in the early stages, as Pace Projector favors runners on/near the lead, and indicates that #1 Smashing will get there ahead of #5 Ultimate Shopper.  
 
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Pace Projector, shown above for Race 6, is available for every race.  
 
They are both very fast, and have the potential to hurt each other early in this race, especially as Smashing tries to get 7 furlongs for the first time.  We believe that a duel may develop at some point, and that makes #7 Miss Melinda a threat to come running at a square price.  
 
Selections:  7-1-5-8
 
 
Race 7:  Maiden claimer on grass feels like a good place to look for a price, as the experienced turf horses don't have much to offer.  #5 Hard Fast Cash is interesting on the drop after running in a pair of fast-paced dirt sprints, and he spent considerable time on dead rails both times.  He has enough turf pedigree, by Hard Spun and out of a Storm Cat mare, as does #8 Secret Ops, who is a half to a turf winner, and who was also on that dead rail February 21st while making a fast pace.  We will also include #3 In Speight Ofitall, who has the three fastest turf efforts in the field and has never raced this cheaply on this surface, though his trainer makes infrequent visits to the winner's circle (2 wins from last 174 starters).
 
Selections:  5-8-3-4-10
 
 
Race 8:  #2 Wild Finish endured a very difficult trip when last seen on Wood Memorial day, losing early position while in tight before rallying gamely in the stretch, only to get in tight and have to steady again.  He was wide against a gold rail two starts back, which was his first start off of a long layoff, and he earned a strong speed figure for that win last February (97), one that would make him very hard to beat in this race.  
 
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Past performances for our selection in Race 8 are set to display TimeformUS Pace Figures underneath the running lines.  Click here to learn more about our Pace Figures.
 
While we were impressed visually with #1 John's Island's win last time, he did get a soft trip on a moderate pace, and is likely to face a different scenario here. 
 
Selections:  2-4-1-7-3
 
 
Race 9:  #1 Amber Coast seems back in form for Rudy Rodriguez after cutting back-to-back quick paces on the main track, and taking a field all the way last time in the mud.  He's won over turf before, and looms the controlling speed in this race.  #4 Majestic Raffy clearly has the best races to get to in this field, as he tries to finally get a turf race to go for him in 2014.  Needs some pace to set up his late run, so will be hoping someone goes with Amber Coast early.  
 
Selections:  1-4-9-10-5
 
 
 
Race 10:  See no reason to go in against heavy favorite #4 Kauai Katie in this spot, as she ran quite well in a tough pace situation off the long layoff in the Distaff Handicap, and has the back-class to simply be too much for her rivals today.
 
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Fractional times rated as fast are shown in red.  Click here to see how TimeformUS PPs are different.
 
#2 Merry Meadow has improved and will be our other horse. 
 
Selections:  4-2-1-5
 
 
Race 11:  Discussion clearly begins with #6 Animal Style, dropping out of the Grade 3 Shakertown for connections who drop to win.  We'll concede that he should be tough in here, but doubt he will warrant being a very short price against some rock-solid veteran turf sprinters.  #1 Ziptronic has been away since making a fast pace and stopping last October, but he is fast when right, and won off a similar layoff here last year.  #4 Isn'tlovejustgrand is getting back to his best game here for the first time since closing down fellow NY-breds with a strong kick, and will be running at the end.  
 
Selections:  1-4-6-7-12
 
 
Race 12:  #2 Starship Captain has been in good form for a couple of different trainers recently, and but for a couple of tough trips 2 and 4 starts back, would look much better on paper for this race.  7 furlongs is a bit of a question mark, but Pace Projector has him sitting a nice stalking trip in behind the leaders.
 
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Pace Projector for Race 12 shows our selection in good stalking position.  
 
Maybe it was the mud, but #5 Schoolyard Dreams appeared to come back to earth last time after posting a couple of impressive wins off the claim.  Drops back down as the horse to beat.  #8 Straight Fax is one of our favorites, is better than he looks on paper, and one of these days is going to pop at a big price.  
 
Selections:  2-5-8-10
 

Belmont Analysis for Thursday May 15

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  Both #7 Blue Ballerina and #6 Wild Kay are well-drawn speeds, so the key to their success (or failure) may come down to how aggressively they are ridden.  Because Blue Ballerina is the better price, we'll take her on top.  She has been in career-best form lately, a turnaround that has coincided with her starting to show speed in her races, and she is back to the right level after catching a muddy track here last week.  #1 We'll Talk could be the beneficiary if a duel develops, as she looks for four in a row.  

Selections:  7-1-6-2
 
 
Race 2:  #6 Bounty Pink buried a weak field when returning from a layoff in December, and it was another four months before she resurfaced with a respectable effort on grass, despite getting wiped out at the break.  No layoff this time, and we like her returning to dirt.  #2 Soul Opposition hasn't done much to get excited about to this point, but she's in for a tag for the first time, and did have a troubled trip in her last race.  #5 Fujiana has the top last number in the race (72), although #1 Fee and Sugar was in that race and and earned a 75 (she's run twice more since then), but Fujiana has been well-backed several times and has proven to just not be that good.
 
Selections:  6-2-1-5
 
 
Race 3:  Pace Projector favors runners up close to the pace, and that figures to play well for #2 Cast a Doubt, who received the wrong ride last time, rating back off the pace before being forced to take a wide run.  
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He has more speed than that, and can use it from the inside here.  We'll also use #3 Bemata, who is making his third start off the claim by very sharp connections and will appreciate turning back in distance, as he is 4 for 8 sprinting on dirt, and 0 for 10 doing anything else.  
 
Selections:  2-3-4-6
 
 
Race 4:  Tough turf sprint to figure, as 7 of the 13 entered, including both halves of the coupled entry, have never been on grass.  #3 Ziggy the Great made a promising debut last summer, getting bet and then closing gamely to run down the favored leader well clear of the rest of the field.  Figures to benefit from the turn-back in distance here after getting wired off the layoff, and he picks up Castellano.  #11 Countknickerbocker has had his chances already, but he endured some tough trips last year and may wind up catching some pace to run into if this field stays intact.   #6 Sol the Freud is a full brother to Grade 1 winner Franny Freud, who handled all surfaces, and he held his own vs. some solid competition as a two-year-old.
 
Selections:  3-11-6-4-2
 
 
Race 5:  #7 Cashmere Cat ran into a sharp debut winner when returned from the layoff, and then received an odd ride while kept wide throughout off of a moderate pace last time.  Switches to Rosario for this, and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with runners dropping from MSW to maiden claiming company. #3 Rich 'n' Tuck earned a solid 102 TimeformUS speed figure for his debut run vs. a solid field, and he is back to dirt for the first time since the end of November, with some class relief.  
 
Selections:  7-3-1-5
 
 
Race 6:
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Appears that first-time starter #9 Silverama has found a soft spot here if she can run.  Has enough pedigree, being out of a dam who went 4-for-8 in France, and was a listed stakes winner, and Christophe Clement is a rare trainer who excels with runners debuting going long on grass (98 Trainer Rating).  #10 Medaglia d'Argento drops down and returns to turf after getting outrun over Gulfstream's main track; will have blinkers on for the first time on grass.  #3 Hiddenite ran quite well on a solid pace when switched to turf last time, but she was 35/1 that day, and you'll be required to take a much shorter price this time around.  The other first-time starter, #1 The Giant's Lamp, also has plenty of pedigree (her dam made almost $150k on grass, and was stakes placed multiple times).  
 
Selections:  9-10-3-1-8
 
 
Race 7:  Pace Projector indicates a fast pace is on tap here, and that may be to the detriment of ML favorite #1 B Shanny, who is drawn on the rail.  We'll take #6 Dan's Gold, who couldn't avoid a duel when breaking from the rail here opening week, but is nicely drawn outside today, and showed in his impressive win back in December that he is comfortable tracking from the outside. #2 Chilton has put up back-to-back wins for sharp connections while pairing up a new top speed figure of 91 in the process, and he may be the main beneficiary of a contested pace here.   #7 The Rhythmisright is a quick three-year-old, and he drew well on the far outside, but he's likely to be tested by some hard-hitters in this spot and doesn't figure to offer much value.  
 
Selections:  6-2-1-3
 
 
Race 8:  We have been impressed with #3 Patent's turf efforts to this point--he is extremely well-bred for the surface. His grass performances have come vs. some tough competition, and while he probably wasn't going to win the Palm Beach stakes last time, he did have legitimate trouble on the turn when impeded by a rival and forced to steady.  
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We will take him to rebound here, and use him with returning 3yo #6 Mansion House, who impressed with his strong finish after some traffic trouble in his stateside debut.  They will, however, have to be conscious of the race dynamics early, as Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead in this race, and indicates that #2 Canzoni, who owns the top speed figure in the field for his 3rd place finish behind repeater Chart Topper last out, will be in a prime early position.  
 
Selections:  3-6-2-4-7
 
 
Race 9:  We were impressed with #7 Raffies Bay's turf debut last year at Tampa, as he contested a hot pace before giving way to closers late.  He then endured a tough trip after trouble at the start when sent to NY for his second start on grass.  To us, he may be quite a bit better than he looks, and if he's ready to go off the layoff, he may prove tough in this field.  #1 Forever Utopia is logical based on last year's turf form, and is tactical enough to pull a nice trip from his inside post. #10 With Expression shouldn't be ignored, as he debuted in a race at the end of last year that was dominated up close, and he will receive lasix for the first time today.
 
Selections:  7-1-10-9
 
 
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