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TimeformUS Analysis for October 17

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Friday October 17

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #6 Gabbole has some speed and gave game chase to a front-running winner in MSW debut before settling for a minor award.  Drops down for second start and will be tough on this field if able to make the front.  #1 Grandpa's King got bet but didn't have speed and raced greenly throughout Saratoga debut.  Took some time to regroup for trainer who scores perfect 100 Trainer Rating with 2yo maiden claimers on dirt.  #5 Havermeyer Street is a first-time starter with a solid 89 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints and goes for a trainer who does well with 2yos debuting in maiden claiming company (90 rating).  
 
Selections:  6-1-5-4
 
Race 2:  #4 Brass Pear gets the right class drop for this.  Caught up in a fast pace duel last time, he may have an easier time of it up front in here according to Pace Projector.  #2 Brendan G also paid the price after contesting a solid pace in his last start. Wound up settling for his 8th runner-up finish from 15 career starts.  New trainer doesn't claim much, but does a good job with new acquisitions.  #5 Ice Wagon has run well in last three starts at this level without winning, but faced a tougher overall group last time (87 Race Rating, vs. today's 80). 
 
Selections:  4-2-5-3
 
Race 3:  Someone in this field of nine entered for turf is going to step forward, and we'll hope that it's #9 On Tenterhooks, who switches to turf for his third start after chasing the freakish Daredevil in the mud last time.  More Than Ready colt gets a strong 91 Breeding Rating for turf, and Pace Projector indicates that he may be loose on the early lead in this spot.  #12 Night Prowler raced on gamely after a nice inside trip to be 3rd behind #3 Sleeping Giant in his debut.  Well-bred and well-connected colt is eligible to step it up in second start.  
 
Selections:  9-12-5-11
 

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Race 4:  #8 Discreet Kaz gets a 91 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints (dam won 4 dirt sprints in her career and was stakes-placed multiple times while posting a TFUS Speed Figure top of 101) and starts for a trainer who can win with first-time starters (94 rating from a limited sample).  Has found a likely spot if he can run a little.  If not him, then we can give #5 Bad to the Roan one more chance back on dirt, as he was compromised by inside-speed-favoring tracks in two of his three career starts before the layoff.  
 
Selections:  8-5-6-7
 
Race 5:  We'll see if #4 Annie Walker can carry her speed all the way this time, as Pace Projector once again places her in the driver's seat early.  Stamina has been an issue to this point, though she may not have appreciated the muddy going last time.  We'll play against her with #2 Canal Six, who goes for an excellent young trainer and who will appreciate pace to close into as she turns back to a better distance.  We can also give the improving #9 Jcs American Dream another chance here after she encountered that same wet track when finishing ahead of Annie Walker last time.  
 
 
Selections: 2-4-9-7
 

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Race 6:  #2 Street Game is better than these horses with his good race, and he was compromised by a tactical error when defeated as the favorite last time.  Pace Projector places him in a perfect trip stalking the early leader.  #8 Went the Day Well showed promise as a turf horse at the beginning of his career, but didn't race over grass for almost three full years prior to his last start.  Didn't run poorly at all that day when holding position all the way around after a front-running winner on a slow pace.  Don't care for the race that #1 Analysis and #3 Majestic Raffy are exiting, but they have better races than that to get to, and Majestic Raffy had plenty of traffic trouble in that spot.
 
Selections:  2-8-3-1
 
Race 7:  #4 Wickapecko drops in class for third start back from a layoff, and she will appreciate this turn-back in distance as she has been at her best sprinting on grass.  Plenty of speed signed on to this race, which may help her settle a little better after getting rank going longer in her fist two starts this year.  #11 Double the Energy also drops in class, and she has the tactical ability to take up a nice tracking spot away from the speedy #1 Insolvent.  She has consistently run the best races in this field and is clearly the one to beat.  #2 Mighty Reward is a bigger price and will appreciate the class relief she gets today, and #3 Sunrise Kitty has run well enough over sprint distances several times in the past to be competitive here.
 
Selections:  4-11-2-3
 
Race 8:  #8 Madaket Millie's dirt debut back in July was a solid effort that earned her a 95 TFUS Speed Figure, and a repeat makes her tough in here.  She has faced better horses since then but has not been competitive.  If playing against her, we are most interested in #4 Whispering.  She has also faced better in limited dirt tries, but earned a new top of 93 when returned to the main track last time, and she has improved her figures right along.  
 
Selections:  4-8-5-3
 
Race 9:  #6 Throckmorton ran into severe traffic and emerged unlucky from Saratoga debut; then was kept wide all the way when wired as the favorite last time.  One more chance, adding blinkers with a trainer change.  #10 Idiosyncratic put in a long wide run all the way through the final turn in a roughly run race and carried on well through the stretch.  Can do better with a clean trip.  #11 Veya landed in a fast-paced race first time out as a 3yo, and he wound up down on the inside for much of the running before weakening late.  Has solid 2yo form to build upon.  
 
Selections:  6-10-11-5
 

 

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Big Apple Babies for Friday, October 17,2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Friday, October 17,2014

Race 3, 2-year-olds, 7 furlongs, turf, 1:52pm

THUNDERS FURY (bay gelding, Thunder Gulch – Golden Gale, by Summer Squall) is the tenth foal from his dam, six of which have run. Five of Golden Gale’s offspring to race are winners, a group that includes a pair of stakes horses. Knights Cross (Thunderello) finished third in the G3 Aristides while Bailzee (Grand Slam) was third in the Lottsa Talc Stakes at Aqueduct. Golden Gale herself earned over $260,000 while picking up a pair of stakes victories, including the G2 Beaumont at Keeneland. All of the mentioned blacktype was earned sprinting on the dirt.

Owner: Windmill Manor Farm
Trainer: Tom Morley
Jockey: Manuel Franco
 

PERFORMANCE BONUS (bay colt, Discreetly Mine – Unlimited Pleasure, by Valid Appeal) is a half-brother to a trio of graded stakes winners, headlined by Unlimited Budget (Street Sense). Unlimited Budget won the first four races of her career, including the G2 Demoiselle, G2 Fair Grounds Oaks, and G3 Rachel Alexandra. Unlimited Pleasure’s other graded stakes winners are precocious Montbrook juveniles Beacon Shine and Jardin, winners of the G3 Flash and G3 Schuylerville respectively. Unlimited Pleasure, a half-sister to G1 winner Outofthebox, did not run at two but her first six starts included a debut win, three subsequent victories, and a stakes placing.

Owner: Klaravich Stables & William H. Lawrence
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Sales history: $120,000 OBS March 2-year-old in training, where he worked a quarter in 22.1: watch now

 

BIG APPLE BABIES ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

Big Apple Babies for Thursday, October 16, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Thursday, October 16, 2014

Race 4, 2-year-olds, originally carded for 1 1/16 miles, turf, 2:23pm
The race has been moved to the main track.

WORLD APPROVAL (gray/roan gelding, Northern Afleet – Win Approval, by With Approval) is a half-brother to a trio of millionaires, all of whom have had tremendous success on the grass. Revved Up (by Sultry Song) broke his maiden in an off-the-turf sprint at two and earned over $1.5 million, largely going a route of ground on grass, in a career that lasted until his was ten. Miesque’s Approval (Miesque’s Son), displayed similar longevity as a 2-year-old stakes winner who found his greatest success at the age of seven, when a Breeders’ Cup Mile victory helped propel him to an Eclipse Award. The most recent star from the family is Za Approval (Ghostzapper), a multiple graded stakes winner who is hoping this year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile can add to his earnings of over $1.1 million. Win Approval herself only won twice, but one of those victories came on a sloppy track in an off-the-turf affair.

Owner: Live Oak Plantation
Trainer: Christophe Clement

 

OUR LUKESTER (bay colt, Mineshaft – Moyne Abbey, by Charismatic) is the fifth foal from his dam, two of whom have run. Both are winners, led by this year’s G1 twinspires.com Wood Memorial and G2 Jim Dandy winner Wicked Strong. Moyne Abbey is a half-sister to a quartet of stakes horses, led by multiple graded stakes winner Gulch Approval.

Owner: William Lynn
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
 

ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

 

TimeformUS Analysis for October 16

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Thursday October 16

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #1 Mills has seen his fortunes fall since running in a Grade 1 race at this time last year; brings a 9-race losing streak into this $50k claimer today.  Isn't easy to take at a short price, but this would be a good spot for Rosario to use his speed from the inside.  If he can't even win a race at this level, the best alternatives appear to be #8 Michael With Us, who is on a big class drop of his own but is lacking early speed in a race where that puts him up against it, or #9 Bigger Picture, who impressed with a big stretch run in his turf debut last time and has all of the upside.  
 
Selections:  9-1-8-5
 
Race 2:  #9 Heading to Boca never picked up his feet over a sloppy, speed-favoring track in his return from a long layoff here 12 days ago.  Back in short order for a hot trainer, and his two sprints over fast dirt to this point give him a chance in here.  #5 Boss Daddy has raced very greenly in first two starts, but showed some interest in his debut after being shuffled out to last behind a class-dropping winner. Back to the level of the claim for young trainer who is doing excellent work so far.  #7 Qui C'est Moi has run the fastest races and gets some needed class relief off the layoff. 
 
Selections:  9-5-7-4
 
Race 3:  #3 Tiz May West drops down with a big TFUS Speed Figure edge on this field, and Pace Projector indicates that she has the best early speed in this matchup.  Main threat to her figures to come from #1 Prove It All Night, who came back to dirt with a drop in class at Saratoga and proved to be a much-the-best winner in frontrunning fashion.  #4 Boca Babe is lightly raced enough to be given a look, and her trainer excels going turf to dirt (98 rating) and with claimers down in class (100 rating).
 
Selections:  3-1-4-2
 

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Race 4:  #1 Red Guard was outrun and last all the way to the top of the stretch before coming with a solid late run in promising debut.  Adds lasix for second start.  #6 Andalusite and #7 Grey Wizard both ran well when finishing noses apart behind frontrunning winner Dubai Sky here on September 30th.  #11 St. Louie drifted in badly at the break of his debut before racing on well while in and among horses all the way.  Eligible to improve rapidly.  #12 Tale of Fancy switches immediately to turf with a big pedigree (100 Breeding Rating for turf routes) after getting in a prep on the main track.  Will also add lasix for the first time. 
 
Selections:  1-11-7-6
 
Race 5:  #7 Glenbrook put in a run after a green beginning in her debut, and then had little chance when giving chase to a drop-down, odds-on winner in her second start.  Adds lasix for the first time today, and won't have to build much upon 65 TFUS Speed Figure earned last time to contend here.  #4 Marriedtomichael drops down for the first time and switches from turf to dirt for third start off the layoff.  Raced three-wide against a gold rail last time on dirt.  #6 Flapper Girl has had little to offer so far in pair of well-backed races on both surfaces.  Lone dirt start came vs. much better. 
 
Selections:  7-4-6-5 
 

BC270x200Race 6:  #8 Shatak earned a slight new top TFUS Speed Figure of 93 in first start back from a long layoff last time, and did so despite being strongly rated in behind the 1-2 finishers for a long way.  Has nice versatility and can be tough in here if stepping forward slightly second time back.  #1 Cashmere Cat took advantage of Shatak's conceding the lead on August 23rd, and he has since come back to be defeated as the favorite going a bit longer.  This may be a better distance for him, and he has speed at his disposal.  #5 Knockher Off clipped heels and stumbled badly at the start in his return from a long layoff.  Has run well in all three turf sprints to date, though he did have soft trips in each of his wins.  

Selections:
 
Race 7:  #8 Royal Currier is tough to play against as he drops way down in class and projects to be on a clear early lead.  Best race, or anything approaching that, makes him too much for these horses.  #7 Back Forty has been compromised by moderate paces in last two, but prior to that he had races that make him a factor in this field, and he figures to be an overlaid price off the claim.  Neither #2 Doc Almon or #6 Regulus could factor vs. better last time, but they figure tougher in this spot, and they both have the positional speed to get the right trip. 
 
Selections:  8-7-2-6
 
Race 8:  #10 Bella Kateri is the one to beat off convincing win over this track and trip here last month with an 88 TFUS Speed Figure.  Still owns the upside as the most lightly raced horse in the field.  #7 Nonnie Connie returns quickly after chasing a fast pace here 7 days ago.  Something similar to the effort two back would make her a contender here.  #3 Official also wheels back quickly after a game finish behind a clear winner over shorter trip last week.  Has run well in all three turf starts, but may need some pace to develop.  
 
Selections:  10-7-3-11
 
Race 9:  #2 R Y Squadron debuts for a hot trainer, one who has won with 7 of the last 19 2yos he's debuted on grass.  Pulls strong 95 Breeding Rating for turf sprints.  #4 Dream On debuted in a loaded race on the main track, and will switch to turf for second start.  Half-sister One Time Only has scored all three career wins over grass while posting top TFUS Speed Figure of 97.  #1A Forma's Joy closed ground into a fast pace in turf debut before trying stakes company on the main track last time.  Figures to appreciate getting back on grass, and she has an experience edge on most of these.
 
Selections:  2-4-1A-7
 

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