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TimeformUS Analysis for October 8

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Belmont Park on Wednesday October 8th

Race 1:  #8 Starago was carried in badly before having to steady out at the start of his debut, but he managed to put in a run from the back of the pack before tiring a bit late.  Pace Projector indicates that he may have a fast pace to close into, and his underrated trainer has been at his best with turf routers (99 rating).  #11 Forever Utopia is in danger of becoming a career maiden, with 8 second-place finishes from his first 12 starts, but he's run the fastest races and has faced some tougher company.  #4 Talladega has run well enough in all three starts to date to win a race like this one, and he may also appreciate having a little more pace up front after chasing a moderate one last time.

Selections:  8-11-4-7
 
Race 2:  #1A Screenplay took a tough beat after getting hooked up on a fast pace last time, and he's been in good form since being claimed by these connections, winning three of six and holding his own in graded stakes company. #5 Days Ride was lucky to win last time, when the rider of runner-up TizYankee lost an iron in deep stretch, but he's holding good form as well, and has been facing fields more highly rated than this one.  #4 Skiffs Brewmeister took advantage of a softened-up Screenplay on August 17, and he may catch another favorable scenario here, as Pace Projector indicates that that rival may have some company up front once again.
 
Selections:  1A-5-4-6
 
Race 3:  #1 Coral Beach didn't get much of a figure and never threatened in Saratoga debut, but she finished with some interest and galloped out past the wire as the less-fancied half of a Pletcher pair.  Not familiar with rider named, but Pletcher has been hot lately, and he gets a perfect 100 rating with second-time starters.  #5 Okay Momma has a solid Breeding Rating of 81 for dirt sprints, and she is a half to a pair of 5-time winners from a dam who went 5-for-12 sprinting on dirt in her career.  #2 Breach of Duty (83) and #6 Riddle Me This (84) both move over from turf with solid Breeding Ratings for the switch while also dropping in class.  Either is logical in this spot. 
 
Selections:  1-5-6-2
 
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Race 4:  #2 Premium has run well in all three starts since arriving stateside, and she did not have a fair chance last time when in behind horses throughout most of the running.  Trainer gets big 97 rating with first-time lasix.  #8 Little Journey may be the horse to beat as she drops out of graded stakes company for Chad Brown, but her typical race since arriving gives her no edge on this field.  #4 Clearbrook is a galloping type who will appreciate getting some extra ground to work with in this spot.  #3 Sabbatical figured to be better on grass as a half to the Grade 1 winning turfer Imagining, but she got a perfect trip vs. a weaker field last time.
 
Selections:  2-8-4-3
 
Race 5:  #3 Amber Morning has proven a consistent turf sprinter, and she drops back down to a better spot here.  Pace Projector doesn't designate a fast one for this race, but it figures to be competitive, with three horses all up front together early.  #5 Lakeview Lady and #9 Benny's Bullet both have races that make them hard to beat in this spot, but they are two of the runners expected to be contesting the pace, and they may hurt each other.  #8 Rock N Cozy never wins, but she always runs late and can get a big piece if the fractions get heated.
 
Selections:  3-5-9-8
 
Race 6:  #2 Mr Harlan is a half to the speedy stakes winning sprinter Isabelle, who is currently 3-for-6 and has won her last three starts vs. NY-breds by over 18 lengths combined.  Isabelle also races for this underrated trainer, who pulls a strong 97 rating with dirt sprinters and a 100 rating with sprinters on the NYRA circuit.  #6 Buddy the Elf was second best in turf sprint debut, but he may do better with this surface switch (88 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints) as the first foal from a dam who won 12 races on dirt while earning over $300k.  #5 Got Winged debuted in that same turf race, but he also gets a solid Breeding Rating for dirt sprints (85) and is a half to Afleet Alexandra, a stakes winner on dirt.   
 
Selections:  2-6-5-8
 
Race 7:  Wide-open turf route for NY-breds requires evaluating the board before making final decisions.  #6 Majestic Raffy has trouble finding the winner's circle, but the same can be said for several of these.  He has been in good form all year without winning.  #1 Elroi is a chronic slow-breaker who is always leaving himself with much to do, but he runs every time and has a strong closing kick (101 Late Pace rating tops the field).  #3 Analysis has also been holding solid form, and he is tactical enough to pull any kind of trip, but he may not be much price in here.  We'll also give a look to our old friends #7 Alarmed Ndangerous and #11 Jonrah, both of whom have a race plenty good enough in here. 
 
Selections:  6-1-7-11
 
Race 8:  Solid allowance field features the return of three talented runners in #1 Bay of Plenty, #6 Vinceremos and #8 Saint Vigeur.  They are joined by a pair of runners in #4 Bad Hombre and #5 Crushing who have enough ability to ensure that one, or all, of them will have to come back running in order to prevail.  Bad Hombre was a winner over this track and trip back in July, and he ran another good one going longer at Saratoga before catching mud and turf in his next two starts.  Fast enough on his best to be a handful in here, and he's likely to be a price.  
 
Selections:  4-6-8-1
 
Race 9:  #6 Maura's Pass is a handful to ride, so we'll see if she can finally settle enough to work out a comfortable trip, which hasn't happened for her in her last three.  Class drop figures to help.  #10 Unrepented was caught wide off the pace behind a frontrunning winner on turf in her debut, then showed more speed on dirt in her second start.  New trainer gets strong rating of 87 with turf runners.  #7 Lovely Lanie also drops back down in class, and she has improved on grass for a trainer having a good meet here.  
 
Selections: 10-6-7-9
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for October 5

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of the Races at Sublime Belmont Park on Sunday October 4
 
Race 1:  #1 Etiquette is the horse to beat off of her runner-up finish behind Feathered at Saratoga, but that track was favoring the inside and she just rode the rail behind the winner all the way.  As an alternative to her, we'll try #5 Theophilia, who also exits that August 31 race behind Feathered.  She was on the outside all the way that day, and Mott gets better performances out of his second-time starters (92 trainer rating with 2yo maidens off of this kind of layoff).
 
Selections:  5-1-2-4
 
Race 2:  #3 Mr Maybe came with a good run to win turf debut after a long layoff, and he came back to give game chase to an in-form winner at Laurel last time.  Has displayed a solid finishing kick in all three starts this year, and Pace Projector indicates that he will have a fast pace to close into.  #7 March Reward is first off the claim for Mike Maker (97 rating) and will put blinkers on (100 rating).  Has speed, but has won from a stalking position in the past.  #5 Are We Not Men was given a heads-up ride last time to take what was available to him in wiring a field of maidens off the claim.  Has proven capable of closing effectively in the past, as well.  If we're off the turf, #4 Classic Sense figures to be a short price, and will be tough to go against.
 
Selections:  3-7-5-2
 
Race 3:  #1 For the Luv of Lil was in too tough over a distance too far last time, but he was a good winner with a 95 TFUS Speed Figure two starts back, and he handles a wet track well, should those conditions prevail.  #2 Cousin Michael may be the horse to beat in current form, and he has the tractable speed to pull the right trip.  #4 Groomedforvictory broke through the gate prior to the start last time, and then failed to run his race first time out for dangerous connections.  Can do better this time as he drops back down, and his best race will be too much for these.
 
Selections:  1-4-2-7
 
Race 4:  Grade 2 Futurity for 2yos pulled only five, but there are a couple in here with much upside.  #2 Blofeld wasn't the most professional Pletcher-trained first-time starter we've witnessed, but he flashed plenty of raw talent when finally straightening out enough to run down a fast rival at Saratoga.  98 TFUS Speed Figure for that effort tops the field.  #5 Hebbronville has been very impressive in pair of wins out of town, and he drew perfectly on the outside.  #1 Cinco Charlie has the seasoning that the others lack, but he has the look of an early 2yo and always figured to be vulnerable to the later-developing members of the class.
 
Selections:  2-5-1-4
 
Race 5:  Seems unlikely that we'll be on the turf, but if we are, #2 Queen's Prize was well thought of in Europe to begin her career, and she figures tough with lasix on for Clement.  On dirt we will lean to #11 Snowbell.  Always promising, she stepped up her game to break her maiden at Saratoga with a 94 TFUS Speed Figure, and she had plenty of trouble finding a clear lane when defeated last time.  #7 Pretty Syrie impressed when closing gamely to win dirt debut with an 87 speed figure.  Has run well enough on grass recently, but we can stick with her if we're off, and she stays in.  #4 Madaket Millie was blown away by House Rules last time, but her dirt debut prior to that makes her a major contender.
 
Selections:  2-11-7-4
 
Race 6:  Looks like a good spot for #2 Pecorino, who has some turf in his pedigree (dam is a sister to Grade 2 turf winner Big Booster), and has run the fastest dirt races in the field.  Handled off tracks just fine in last two starts, and he looks like the main speed if we're off the grass.  #11 Ice Wagon may need to step it up if Pecorino runs his best race, but he's run well in each of his last two starts and will appreciate cutting back in distance for this.  We would be against #6 Saint Finian on grass, but he would be in receipt of some major class relief on dirt should he stay in.
 
Selections:  2-11-6-12
 
Race 7:  #4 Belle de Lawers didn't handle the step-up into stakes company after her winning debut overseas, but she has landed in the right kind of field should we remain on turf.  On dirt, we'll guess with #2 Satisfaction.  She has been heading the wrong way on grass but pulls a perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt as her dam is a full-sister to Heavenly Prize, so perhaps she will pick up her game a little on the main track.  #1 High Heel Kitten ran her best race to date over a yielding course here, so we could give her a chance to rebound on grass.  She also gets a perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt and is a full-sister to Csaba, who is a multiple graded stakes winner on the main track.  
 
Selections:  4-2-1-3
 
Race 8:  #4 Savvy Star made an impressive debut to overcome big trouble at the start and a wide trip to gain a share of the win.  Has a big pedigree and Mott does very well coming right back with last-out maiden winners (99 rating).  #9 Princess Violet is the horse to beat as she drops out of a no-chance trip against an inside-speed track in the Grade 2 Prioress.  #5 Bella Bianca impressed when blowing away maidens at Penn National with an 85 TFUS Speed Figure, and she did it over a wet track. 
 
Selections:  4-9-5-7
 
Race 9:  Enough pace signed on to give #7 Image of Noon another chance, if we're on grass. She has come back in good form as a 4yo.  On dirt, we'll hope that #1 Henry's Gal stays in.  She has run some of the fastest races in the field while winning four of six on the main track, and she's the inside speed.  #5 Run a Dubb Dubb was in career-best form when last seen earlier this year, and she will be a factor if running her race right off the layoff for a dangerous trainer.  
 
Selections:  7-1-5-16-13
 
Race 10:  #1 Darling Sky impressed in debut despite racing greenly, and she had little chance when left to chase Condo Commando in the slop in the Grade 1 Spinaway.  Gets another chance from us.  #3 Paris Bikini wasn't the most impressive debut winner we've ever seen from this barn (71 TFUS Speed Figure), but she did what she had to do and is bred to improve with racing.  #8 Save Rock and Roll may have to improve to win this, but Pace Projector indicates that there will be a fast pace in this race, and she has closed ground in both starts.
 
Selections:  1-3-8-5
 
Race 11:  #9 Call Wil is entered for turf but was an open-lengths winner in his last dirt start, and he will be first-time lasix on dirt in his second start for an excellent trainer.  #7 Cosmic Coincidence may be the horse to beat if we're on the main track, and the cut-back to a mile figures to be a better fit for him, but #1 Distorted Dream interests us more.  He never wins, which is a major concern, but he has run all of the fastest races on dirt, and he could be the main speed in the field if he stays in.  #4 With Expression is a guess on the main track, but his dam is a half to the multiple stakes winning dirt sprinter Kashatreya.  
 
Selections:  9-1-7-4
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, October 5, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, October 5, 2014

Race 1, 2-year-old fillies, seven furlongs, dirt, 12:50 p.m.

BONNET PLUME (bay filly, Bernardini—Little Bonnet, by Coronado’s Quest) is a half-sister to Boys at Tosconova, winner of the Grade 1 Hopeful. Their dam, who has produced three winners from as many starters, was third in an off-the-turf, ungraded edition of the Sands Point. Bonnet Plume’s second dam, Valid Bonnet, won the Grade 3 Ak-Sar-Ben Oaks and Grade 3 Honey Bee.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Manuel Franco

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

TimeformUS Analysis for October 4

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Saturday October 4

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #6 Macagone blew a pair of clear leads upstate after cutting fast paces, but he took a field all the way in his last start down here, and he is in position to control things up front once again.  Doesn't appear to be in against as tough a crew here as he was facing upstate.  #7 Oklahoma Den is an interesting new face to this bunch, and his last three races are the best he has ever run (TFUS Speed Figures of 91-90-92).  Not much separating the trio of #3 Iced Over, #8 Slew's Brew and #9 Tiger D, and while we aren't excited about the prospect of betting on any of them, we recognize that all of them can continue to improve. 
 
Selections:  6-7-3-9
 
Race 2:  #6 Heading to Boca ran well while putting in a wide run in his debut in November of 2013, and he could only chase a front-running winner when last seen back in January.  Makes his first start for dangerous connections (trainer gets a 96 rating first off the claim and a 98 off the layoff), and is a threat if showing improvement as a 3yo.  #3 Smoke Police was in too tough last time, and it didn't help that he was bumped and steadied on the backstretch that day.  Debut effort was OK, and he figures to appreciate the class relief.  #7 Hi Speed Chase has dangerous speed second off the layoff, but may have some company up front in this race.
 
Selections:  6-3-2-7
 
Race 3:  #6 Consumer Credit dropped a tough one when buried in traffic while loaded through the stretch of her well-backed debut.  Stretch out in distance shouldn't be an issue.  #8 Neilinger was also unable to secure a clear passage first time out at Saratoga, but she raced on to the end in an effort that was much better than it may appear.  Forgiving the stakes try in her second start, she has the pedigree to stretch out (87 Breeding Rating for turf routes), and she'll be a price.  #3 Miss Always Ready dropped out of contention in her well-bet debut at Saratoga and has gone back to the drawing board for Pletcher.  Returns with a series of improved works and may run much better now. 
 
Selections:  8-6-3-11
 
Race 4:  #1 Cary Street and #5 Ever Rider hooked up in a stretch duel and finished 1-2 in the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup last time, a race that drew a much stronger field than this one.  We want Ever Rider out of that race, as he was forced to do all of the work in there after an ill-judged ride, while Cary Street sat in a perfect trip all the way.  #4 Desvelo and #6 Village Warrior were 1-2 over 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga last time, and are the logical alternatives to the favorites.  
 
Selections:  5-1-4-6
 
Race 5:  #6 Lunar Tales missed the break and then took the worst of it when forced into a long wide run to contention before falling just short as the favorite last time.  He's tough in here if running as well right back, and he has won previously going a mile, so the added distance doesn't figure to work against him.  #7 Gentrify chased a fast pace and tired in a race that went to closers in lone turf start to date.  Switches back with lasix on for the first time, and Pace Projector favors runners on or near the lead.  #1 Peb the Champ was much the best when closing into a fast pace in first turf sprint back in June, and he held his own going longer last time.  Should appreciate cutting back in distance here.  
 
Selections:  6-7-1-10
 
Race 6:  While #6 Condo Commando has been the most impressive 2yo filly in the Frizette field to this point, winning her two races by over 25 lengths combined and hanging up a big 105 TFUS Speed Figure for her Grade 1 win last time out, we are concerned that she improved so much in the slop in that race and wonder if she will continue to carry her speed as the distances stretch out.  #7 By the Moon remains unexposed to this point, and she had little chance to catch Condo Commando over that sloppy track last time.  She is well-bred for the stretch-out (90 Breeding Rating), and we are going to give her a chance to step forward here at a price.  
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We will also use #2 Wonder Gal, who was unlucky when stopped in the stretch in the Adirondack last time and may come forward quickly.
 
Selections:  7-2-6-1
 
Race 7:  #9 Iron Power dropped a tough decision last time after clearly running the best race of anyone in that spot.  He also ran very well two starts back, when second to the talented Storm.  Turn-back to one mile suits him, and he will be tough if running as well in this spot .  #4 Los Borrachos has taken to turf well recently, and he was a game second best to an impressive Heart to Heart last time.  Pace Projector indicates that he will have plenty of pace to close into in this race.  #7 Powerful Instinct is a dangerous closer for a hot trainer, and he has picked up his game noticeably since switching to this barn late last year. 
 
Selections:  9-4-7-5
 
Race 8:  Grade 1 Champagne will be the coming out party for one of these 2yos, and we think it may be #6 Daredevil.  Highly impressive in sloppy-track score first time out with a 91 TFUS Speed Figure, he has the look of a good one for Pletcher.  
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#3 I Spent It is the field's lone graded stakes winner, and he acquitted himself well when forced to contest a fast pace in the Grade 1 Hopeful last time.  Experience counts, and he's run big speed figures (including a 92 in the Hopeful) against strong competition.  #2 Upstart is a talented NY-bred who doesn't need things to go his way in order to perform to his best, an admirable quality in a young horse. He is a big player in here.
 
Selections:  6-3-2-1
 
Race 9:  Stellar edition of the Grade 3 Hill Prince drew a field full of quality 3yo turf horses.  All three of #1 Ring Weekend, #5 Tourist and #9 Mr Speaker appear to have what it takes to go on to win some big turf races in this country, and it may simply come down to trips to separate them in this spot.  Tourist has the speed, and he will be looking to control this race from the start.  He ran big when stretched out to 1 1/4 miles and cutting a fast pace at Arlington last time, and he may have an easier time of it early in here.  Mr Speaker tried his luck in the Travers last time, but he's back to his best surface here, has no distance issues, and he gunned down the talented Adelaide in winning the Grade 1 Belmont Derby in July.  Ring Weekend has run well in back-to-back starts since switching over to turf, but he will face a tougher test here than he did in the Grade 3 Saranac last time. #6 Sheldon got caught up in traffic at a crucial point when finishing behind Mr Speaker in the Belmont Derby, and he came through with another good effort behind Tourist last time.  He's a longshot with a chance; he just needs some pace.  The three imports, #2 Sloane Avenue, #3 Blacktype and #8 Cabral, have combined to go 0-for-9 on grass and 6-for-10 on synthetic in Europe.  Not sure what that means, but we are interested in using Sloane Avenue, whose lone turf start came over 1 1/4 miles off of a layoff, and he was viewed as an interesting prospect over there.  
 
Selections:  2-9-5-6
 
Race 10:  #1 Leroy Jr. put up TFUS Speed Figures of 100 and 101 in his two dirt starts last year, and he is the projected lone speed in this race.  Going to be tough in here if running his race.  #6 Sun Storm paid a big price when winning his debut last summer over this track, but there wasn't anything fluky about that win, as he kept in range of a pace that collapsed and gamely forced his way through between horses in the stretch.  Long layoff is a concern, but he figures to be a price once again.  #4 Groupthink continued his disappointing ways upstate, and is impossible to trust at this point.  Does have a big effort on a wet track, so we will look him up if the rain comes.  
 
Selections:  1-6-4-3
 
Race 11:  Several candidates set to step forward in this race should we be on the grass.  #8 Boldlee will attract much attention after his tough-trip loss last time and is a major player in this race.  #7 Thrown of My Own raced very greenly in his debut and appeared to be a horse who may appreciate the bigger layout here after failing to run through the turn at Saratoga.  #3 Memories of Peter went through the motions after breaking slowly in his debut, but he has a big pedigree and can do better with that experience behind him.  
 
Selections:  7-3-8-9
 
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