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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for October 13

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Monday October 13

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #2 Moonlight Fantasy is the horse to beat, and she may well win, but the reality is that she came away from her last race second best without excuse after making a clear lead, and she finished just 3/4 of a length in front of #3 All Luv Me, who was the longest shot on the board in that spot.  We can try to beat her with two horses.  #1 Super City is an unknown on dirt, but she ran very well when flashing big speed in her debut, and she got the wrong ride when taken back under a hard hold last time.  #4 Stonely Heart is a full sister to the Grade 3 sprinter Hot Stones.  There is a troubling gap in her recorded works between August 16th and September 19th, but she is eligible to be a runner.
Selections:  1-4-2-3
Race 2:  #7 Western Tryst is at his best sprinting on the grass, so this turn-back in distance figures to work well for him, and the class drop won't hurt either (last 4 starts on turf all had Race Ratings higher than today's 91).  Closing sprinter should have some pace to run into.  #9 Joe Can Gallop is the horse to beat as he takes a big class drop of his own.  Earned back-to-back 100 TFUS Speed Figures two and three starts back, and he is unlikely to lose if hanging up a number like that in this spot.  Been wanting to see what #2 Pecorino could do on turf (his dam posted all three career wins on grass, and she is a sister to Big Booster, a Grade 2 winner who made over $820k on turf), and he wheels back quickly to try it, but this is an above-average race for the level.
Selections:  7-9-2-5
Race 3:  Pace Projector for this race favors runners on or near the lead, and it indicates that #4 Shaunna Alexandra has the speed to take advantage of that scenario.  She drops in class for this, and she earned back-to-back TFUS Speed Figures of 92 for her efforts in April and May.  No one else in the field has broken 90.  #3 Star Magnolia returned from a layoff with a convincing victory over a weak field.  Earned a new speed figure top for that effort, and is eligible to still be improving.  #2 Appearance ran some good races after arriving in NY last winter, and she was in way too tough last time vs. open claiming company.
Selections:  4-3-2-1


Race 4:  #2 Macagone blew a couple of clear stretch leads upstate, but he was cutting out fast paces in those starts, and he may really appreciate getting back to Belmont.  #10 Blue Pigeon is tough to take on top after giving away perfect-trip chances in his last two starts.  Now defeated at 5/2 or less in 5 straight starts.  #5 Slew's Brew has quietly overachieved on turf, and he closed gamely up the rail to post maiden win last time.  Will be hoping some pace develops in this race to give him his best chance.
Selections:  2-10-5-7
Race 5:  #7 She's Marvy's lone start on dirt came in her debut, where she ran into an impressive winner in Hard to Stay Notgo (90 TFUS Speed Figure).  Switched to turf for her next two starts, but Breeding Ratings suggest this is a better surface for her (85 for dirt, 66 for turf).  #9 Giant Hearted Lee had plenty of trouble when a no-factor 5th in debut behind a much-the-best winner and can be given another chance.  Castellano sticks with her.  #3 Saluda has dangerous speed on the drop.  Couldn't hold on after dueling the pace at Finger Lakes last time in a race that was won by a last-to-first closer.
Selections:  7-9-3-5
Race 6:  #2 Sweetsoutherndame's lone turf start came vs. much better horses, and she is taking a huge class drop in this spot.  Fact that she is multiple stakes placed on synthetic provides hope that she can run her race on grass, and if she can, she is going to be hard on these horses.  #4 Too Good to B True has also faced some tougher company than this, and she is the kind of new face you want in a field like this.  #6 Dramatize has a race in her that would make her very tough in this spot; she just hasn't been able to run it in NY to this point.  Tries again.  #9 Jennys Creek finally broke through with a win at Saratoga, and she is dropping down to the right level now.
Selections:  2-4-6-9
Race 7:  $100k Punkin Pie Stakes features several with a top race good enough to win.  Question is:  Who will run up to her best today?  We have the fewest questions about #2 Katie's Garden and will take her.  Third off the layoff after pairing up TFUS Speed Figure tops of 101, she may still have forward to go.  #3 Classic Point has better efforts in her than she has shown recently.  Drop in class figures to help, but her trainer has struggled mightily at this meet after burning up Saratoga.  #4 Wildcat Lily just missed in pair of Grade 1 races as a 3yo but has yet to replicate that form this year.  Makes second start back from a long layoff, and second start since the change to a hot trainer.  #8 Voodoo Tales has appeared a different horse in her last two starts for Nick Esler, earning TFUS Speed Figures of 104 and 96 while laying the boots to allowance horses.  Hard to take it as a good sign that she hasn't run in the last 95 days following those impressive efforts. 
Selections:  2-3-4-8
Race 8:  #1 Claiming Victory has picked up her game since being pointed to turf sprints, and she exits an easy score over a next-out winner at Monmouth last time.  #12 Dauphine Russe hasn't been out in 186 days and has never raced as short as 6 furlongs.  She did win over 6.5 when last seen, but she got a perfect trip into a fast pace that was falling apart that day.  #9 Indian Splendor may have to deal with the speedy #3 Laguna Girl early, but she may simply be faster than that rival, and if she is, she will be tough to run down.
Selections:  1-9-12-6
Race 9:  Interesting running of the $200k Pebbles, with a big field and a few imports to consider.  Invaluable insights from our Timeform analysts in London on those imports, as they had viewed  #4 Lady Lara as the type with plenty of scope for improvement from 2-to-3, and they have been proven right.  She will make her first start for Bill Mott today after posting long overdue win last time.  The opposite was felt regarding #9 Sandiva, who was described as a filly on the small side who may not be the type to continue improving.  She hasn't so far, and did not produce a big run in her stateside debut in Grade 2 company.  She will, however, switch to Pletcher and add lasix for this.  #11 Indian Rainbow has held solid group form this year, and she earned a 115 Timeform Speed Figure for her runner-up finish in France last time.  #8 Kenzadargent has impressively won both starts for Chad Brown since arriving stateside.  Will step up today, but she was also stakes quality in France prior to shipping over.  #3 Secret Someone has impressed in all three starts since being switched to turf, and she closed strongly once clear in the stretch to win first time back from a layoff last time. 
Selections:  4-11-8-3
Race 10:  #6 Lutheran Miss had no excuses in pair of perfect-trip losses since being switched to turf, but she likely just faced a better horse last time, and she has certainly found the right field here today.  #10 Miss Motivation hasn't run up to her prior form since arriving in NY with a trainer change, but she has races that make her competitive in a field like this one.  #12 Tenacious Indeed is another who has provided little to get excited about, but she may have found the kind of field she can be competitive with.
Selections:  6-10-12-7



TimeformUS Analysis for October 12

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Sunday October 12th

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #8 Grand Rapport has been holding solid form on turf all year, and he has valuable experience over these longer route distances.  Goes off the claim this time, but old pro seems the type who will run for anyone.  #7 Zane is a question mark taking on the extra distance here, but he's been trip-compromised on turf recently, including in pair of starts when finishing behind Grand Rapport.  Can try him on top if he's the right price.  
Selections:  7-8-5-2
Race 2:  #6 Coviello has tried turf to no avail recently, but he comes back to the main track with a class drop into the right kind of field, and he did not run poorly on dirt to begin his career.  #3 Inca Saint was claimed back by Chad Brown at the first opportunity, but he drops right back down after failing to impact a front-running winner last time.  Better fit here, but a dicey proposition at a short price.  #7 Identity Crisis ran well enough to beat a field like this one two back, but was eased off at the top of the stretch last time as if something was amiss, and he returns for half the price.  Your call.  #5 Distant Thoughts has the best last race, but he took advantage of a perfect pace set-up that day while settling for second best.
Selections:  6-3-7-5
Race 3:  #9 Amazing Littlelady made a solid pace going longer last time (note that the official listed times are much slower than the Trakus times) and was all done at the top of the stretch, with her rider allowing her to fall back out of contention.  Think she will appreciate the turn-back in distance for this, and she may be the main speed.  #5 Keri Belle is a must-use here switching to turf for the first time.  Her dam went 8-for-12 on grass in her career (6 of her 8 wins came sprinting on the grass), won multiple graded stakes down the hill at Santa Anita, and earned over $330k.  We will happily stand against the runners exiting the 4th race from September 24th with the #5 and the #9.
Selections:  5-9-3-8


Race 4:  Good spot for #5 Stand Proud to ship in and take a shot.  He's been 1st or 2nd in 8 of his 12 starts this year, for several different trainers, and he has a handy running style.  #1 Most Happy Fella gutted out a victory in a strongly run race last time, and figures tough with a similar effort, but #7 I Want You to Know may have run the better race that day after moving up early to duel for the lead before tiring in the stretch.  
Selections:  5-7-1-9
Race 5:  #3 Fictionalcharacter doesn't have much speed at his disposal, but he has run better than it may appear, and he was never clear to run until it was too late last time after an overly conservative ride.  #9 Sole Train drops back down after failing to reach contention vs. better last time.  Ran well enough in lone start at this level to contend here.  #5 Lotza Heat ran well enough with a good trip last time and is logical in this spot.  #8 Doc Daneka took a wide run after a good trip in his debut, and is eligible to run a little better this time.
Selections:  3-9-5-8
Race 6:  Much depends on which half of the Jacobson entry of #1 Royal Currier  and #1A N. F.'s Destiny elects to run here, as they both have speed. With the same rider listed, only one will start.  Royal Currier is the better of the two, and he is the horse to beat while taking a big class drop if he's the one who goes.  #10 Attractive Ride impressed in back-to-back wins off a short break over the summer, and he wound up in a pace duel when defeated at a short price last time.  Has a nice outside post for this, and he goes off the claim for a trainer who has been getting the best out of older sprinters like this all year.  #8 Italian Rules is first off the claim after winning two of his last three, and he projects to be in the right kind of trip in behind the speed.
Selections:  1-10-8-9
Race 7:  Seen quite enough of the likes of #4 Gratitude, #7 Ballerina Belle, and #10 Orient Harbor this summer, any one of whom can easily win this race.  We will instead look to some new faces, focusing on #1 Hope Cross.  She suffered three straight narrow defeats to begin her career, but it could easily be argued that she was best in all three of those races, and she impressed when closing down a perfect-trip Colorful last time.  Goes for a hot barn, and this 7-furlong distance figures to be right up her alley.  #12 Marbre Rose is a dangerous import who has earned a pair of 100 Timeform Ratings in France this year.  She is already Group 3-placed and has been keeping stakes company exclusively since breaking her maiden in an allowance race.  #5 Almurra has a pedigree that is slanted more toward routes than sprints, but her best race to date came sprinting in her debut, and she got in a nice tightener when showing speed going longer last time.  
Selections: 1-12-5-3
Race 8:  This race features the return of the talented 3yo #6 Constitution.  Sidelined since winning the Grade 1 Florida Derby back in March, he will start back against no more than five others after all of Praetereo, Don Dulce and Dawly ran here on Saturday.  Still faces some seasoned older rivals, but his task has gotten much easier.  #3 Easter Gift would figure to be the main danger to Constitution, but only if he can somehow find his good form from last year.  #2 Bad Hombre will appreciate getting back over his favorite track and getting back to a more manageable distance, after going longer in his two starts upstate and then trying turf back down here.
Selections:  6-2-3-1A
Race 9:  Excellent edition of the Grade 3 Athenia drew a big field and has attracted enough speed to ensure a fairly run race.  #12 Annecdote has drawn the far outside post, which is no small thing over this distance on the inner turf, but if she runs as well here as she did in her stateside debut, it may not matter. She earned a 108 TFUS Speed Figure for that impressive score, and she never appeared to have to get down to business that day.  Her trainer saddles two others in the race as well, and they both have a chance.  #9 Maximova is up in class, but she has plenty of ability and settled more comfortably in solid win last time after getting very rank in her prior two starts.  #11 Cushion was impressive in her first start over here back in June before finding 1 1/2 miles too far last time.  #10 Baffle Me is going to need all of the breaks to come out on top, but she has run much better than it may appear recently and is fast enough on her best day to factor in here with the right trip.  #1 Overheard runs every time, and she got the best of the draw--down inside with Castellano. 
Selections:  12-9-10-1
Race 10:  #3 Graceful Gal gave game chase to a frontrunning winner last time in a race that was slow early and fast late.  Has run well in both starts to date, and is the horse to beat.  #11 Dreaming as Always was a bit headstrong early in her debut behind Graceful Gal.  Can do better with that experience behind her, though her trainer tends to have them ready to go first time out.  #2 Northern Analyst is a half to Spritely Mambo, who won her debut at one mile on turf for this trainer here last October.  #7 Swear By It may need one for a trainer who doesn't have a history of success with firsters, but she gets a solid 87 Breeding Rating for turf routes, being a daughter of Jesse's Justice, a stakes winner on grass here a few years ago.  
Selections:  3-11-2-4




Big Apple Babies for Saturday, October 11, 2014

Susie Raisher

Big Apple Babies for Saturday, October 11, 2014

Race 6, 2-year-olds, six furlongs, dirt, 3:25 p.m.

MARCH (bay colt, Blame – Lifeinthefastlane, by Unbridled’s Song) is a half-brother Eightyfiveinafifty, successful sprinting on dirt in taking the G3 Bay Shore and breaking his maiden by 17 ¼ lengths. That came in his second lifetime start when making his sophomore debut off of a layoff. Their placed dam is dam of seven foals of racing age. All five to run are winners. March was the most expensive weanling to sell by his sire, a champion whose first crop is two.

Owner: Robert V. LaPenta

Trainer: Chad C. Brown

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Sales history: $320,000 Keeneland November weanling


MAWTHOOQ (chestnut colt, Distorted Humor – Ready’s Gal, by More Than Ready) is the fifth foal from his dam, a multiple graded stakes winner who earned over $600,000. Ready’s Gal won her first two starts, both sprinting on dirt, and was second in the G1 Frizette at two. Switched to turf later in her career, she won a quartet of graded stakes races – the G3 Lake George, G3 Hillsborough, G3 Matchmaker, and G2 Canadian. Her three foals to race include two winners, highlighted by G3 Derby Trial winner Machen. Second dam Exquisite Mistress was a multiple stakes winner who produced to other stakes horses in addition to Ready’s Gal. Mawthooq was the third highest-priced yearling by his accomplished sire to sell at auction last year.

Owner: Shadwell Stable

Trainer: Kiaran P. McLaughlin

Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez

Sales history: $850,000 Keeneland September yearling


FURYOFTHENORSEMAN (bay colt, Northern Afleet – Dynasty, by Time for a Change) will be the seventh foal to race from his dam, four of whom have won. The group is highlighted by Harissa, a ¾ sister to Furyofthenorseman, a multiple stakes winner who earned $468,966. While her biggest victory came sprinting on the dirt in the G2 Barbara Fritchie Handicap, other stakes wins stakes victories came going a route of ground. Dynasty broke her maiden upon her debut when sprinting on dirt, but found her greatest success on the lawn. She won the Lake George Stakes before it was graded and picked up a pair of graded placings. In addition to Harissa, she is the dam of Seattle Queen, stakes placed in Ireland.

Owner: Hibiscus Stable

Trainer: Steve Klesaris

Jockey: Angel S. Arroyo

Sales history: $75,000 Keeneland November weanling, $45,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling


UNBRIDLED HERO (chestnut colt, Unbridled’s Song – Home Crowd, by Came Home) is the first foal from his dam, who broke her maiden as a two-year-old in her career debut. Both of her career victories and her stakes placing in the Ruthless came sprinting on dirt. Home Crowd is a half-sister to a pair of stakes winners, the multiple listed winner Throng and multiple graded stakes winner Funny Moon, whose biggest victory came in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks. Other members of the family include Temperence Hill and Vanlandingham.

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm

Trainer: John C. Kimmel

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $325,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling


Other Notes: Blackwater Charly’s second dam, Chamrousse, won the G2 Black-Eyed Susan.



To be eligible for Big Apple Babies, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction


TimeformUS Analysis for October 11

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Saturday October 11th

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #2 Hot on Ice contested the pace all the way before tiring in the stretch when outfinished by a couple of these last time.  She can turn the tables this time in a race where she may play out as the main speed.  #3 It's Easy may appreciate getting back on a fast track (assuming those are the conditions) for her second start back from the layoff, but she has already lost six times as the favorite and is likely to be taking money once again.  #7 Peach Lake is likely to get at least a piece, but she's not the kind of horse we want on top.  If nothing else, #4 Lady Seeker is better going short than long, and this will be her first dirt sprint try since her debut back in April, when she was stuck very wide chasing an even-money favorite on the lead.  To us, she is the right kind of outsider to try in a race like this one.
Selections:  4-2-3-7


Race 2:  #3 Raging Daoust hasn't been seen in top form so far this year, but he hasn't exactly had the fairest of chances.  We can easily forgive the graded stakes tries at Monmouth because he was way against an inside-speed-favoring track at Saratoga, and we can't hold the turf race against him, either.  He's at his best on dirt between 6 and 8 furlongs, and his last win came while against the bias on this track last September.  
Pace Projector gives the advantage to the runners with speed, which may be enough to get #1 Bowman's Beast back on track, but we wouldn't want a short price on him.  #2 Non Stop was with the track in convincing win last time, and he's a big player right back, though he has always been a difficult horse to handle, so new connections may have their hands full with him. 
Selections:  3-2-6-1
Race 3:  It would be difficult for the connections of #3 Okey Dokey Smokey to find a much better spot than this one for a first start against winners, as his rivals have already been exposed over and over.  Has speed in the right spot and was game in victory at Saratoga.  #1 Master Yank is the logical alternative, though he doesn't possess the upside of his younger rival.
Selections:  3-1-4-2
Race 4:  #8 War Correspondent has the pedigree (full brother Declaration of War is a Group 1 miler in Europe, and was last seen just missing in the Breeders' Cup Classic in November) and the connections, and he was impressive in blowing off challengers in stateside debut last month.  Takes next logical step on the way to some expected stakes engagements.  #9 Abtaal looked strong circling the field in his North American debut back in January, and he was against the flow of the Grade 3 Canadian Turf when last seen 231 days ago.  His trainer does very well with layoffs of this duration (perfect 100 rating), and he is a major threat if ready to fire right away.  Both #1 Tetradrachm and #6 Sinatra are OK, but they may find the top two a little too tough, and we would prefer to stay away from them at any kind of short price.  #3 Bombaguia is a better alternative, but he has had trouble making it to the races.
Selections:  8-9-3-6
Race 5:  New face #3 Queen's Prize was viewed as a prospect when winning first time out last year, and she was headstrong early in her return when asked to travel 1 7/16 miles.  Hasn't landed in the toughest allowance race carded around here.   Along those lines, #1 Costenia was offered up by Pletcher at Saratoga, and he may have gotten away with one as she impressed that day, and came right back to win again as much the best.  BC270x200#7 Prayed For parlayed a perfect trip into a debut win at Saratoga, and she had little chance in stakes company last time.  Still lightly raced enough to stick with.  #9 Fade to Black has improved on turf and can be a factor in this spot after facing a tougher overall group last time.
Selections:  3-1-9-7
Race 6:  Several interesting first-time starters in this field, but they will have to be runners if we get the same #9 Ready for Rye that we saw upstate.  Forced to chase a subsequent Grade 1 winner while against an inside-speed-favoring track, he likely ran even better than the 90 TFUS Speed Figure would indicate.  #3 Kick Off can be given a chance to do better as he adds lasix for start #2.  Was outside early while outpaced in debut, but he spent plenty of time along the rail in there, and that was the place to be on August 30th.  #6 Mawthooq is a full brother to Grade 3 winner Mahcen, who was an impressive debut winner a few years ago at Fair Grounds.  #2 March is a half-brother to the fast (and hard to handle) dirt sprinter Eightyfiveinafifty.  #8 Unbridled Hero is the first foal from a dam who is a half-sister to the Grade 1 winner Funny Moon, and his trainer sent out some live first-time starters at Saratoga this summer.
Selections:  9-3-6-8
Race 7:  Strong MSW for fillies over one mile on turf kicks off the late Pick 4.  #9 Marie Antoinette deserves another chance after failing to impact from last in her 2014 debut.  Ran well enough in all three starts last year to stick with her for a while.  Entry of #1 Queen's Parade and #1A Court Appeal meets in the middle, with the former cutting all the way back and the latter stretching out for her second start.  We have found things to like about both of them but would prefer to play one, or the other, on her own.  #2 Trophee was taken back to last and rallied gamely through the stretch in her stateside debut.  #10 Colorful is logical, having run well in each of her two starts, though she did come away second-best after a perfect trip last time.  
Selections:  9-1/1A-2-10





Race 8:  The Grade 3 Knickerbocker goes through defending champ #3 Za Approval, but he hasn't been seen in top form this year, and we will try to beat him.  #6 Legendary has improved from start to start throughout the year and may be ready for a race like this. 


#9 Mshawish didn't draw well and may be pushing it a bit over this distance, but he has scary overseas form and has had tough trips in each of his first two starts for Pletcher.  #7 Up With the Birds is still eligible to step it up as a 4yo, and #1 Plainview has dangerous speed from a perfect post.
Selections:  6-9-7-1
Race 9:  Pace Projector for this race indicates that a fast pace is on tap, which may compromise some of the shorter prices on the ML.  One of the beneficiaries of a contested pace could be #11 Birchwood Road, who ran quite well in defeat last time and gets a major rider change.  #7 MarchReward goes first off the claim for Mike Maker (97 rating), who has been particularly effective off the claim on grass.  #10 Wind of Bosphorus prefers to race up close, but he has proven tractable in the past and has run some of the best races in the field.  
Selections:  11-7-10-2
Race 10:  Solid three-pronged entry is led by #1 Jimmy Fillpot, who figures tough in this field and drops in class for the first time.  Cut-back in distance is the only concern.  #5 Summation Time is also a cut-back, and he drops in class as well.  Didn't get a great trip or ride last time after breaking alertly.  For alternatives, #11 Hard Fast Cash raced in close range to a fast pace and was overwhelmed by closers in lone turf start to date, and that had the appearance of an above average field for the level.  #9 Bolt From the Blue has sprinted on turf only once, but he had little chance that day in a race wired on a slow pace. 
Selections:  11-1-5-9