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TimeformUS Race Analysis

 

 

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TimeformUS Analysis for September 12

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #2 Aldrin, a half-brother to Tapit, brought $1 million earlier this year and was rumored to be a runner prior to Spa debut.  
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Didn't show speed that day and wasn't beating subsequent Grade 1 winner Competitive Edge anyway, but he's worked five times since that race and can be expected to show up a different horse for this.  #4 Money Changer has run well twice for Pletcher without winning and will now have to stretch out.  #3 Courtier endured an impossible trip when debuting in turf route upstate.  Deserves another chance, and he has a versatile pedigree.  #1 The Truth or Else has run only on turf to this point, and he's run well enough, but his pedigree is slanted more toward dirt racing.  
 
Selections:  2-3-4-1
 
Race 2:  #1 Bartiromo has faced tougher in her last two and drops back down after giving way from a wide position last time.  She's logical and likely a better fit with these, but she may need to bring something approaching her best if #7 Al's Gal shows up with her last race.  She was first off the claim that day and had plenty in hand through the stretch after circling the field.  New trainer won six turf races at Saratoga and gets a 95 rating second off the claim.  This isn't a bad race to try a new face, and #6 Simple Love could be the right one.  She went to Suffolk for her stateside debut and was easily best, though being entered for $50k right away by Clement likely says something about her.
 
Selections:  7-1-6-5
 
Race 3:  Several interesting firsters will square off against a pair of horses with valuable experience.  #1 Onus and #2 Treasure were defeated by a big longshot from Asmussen's barn at Saratoga, but they both ran well that day, and it will not be easy for a first-time starter to defeat them.  Each of the 4 first-time starters sports a Breeding Rating between 86 and 95.  #3 Carioca Girl is the first foal from a Grade 1 winning dam.  #5 Paris Bikini debuts for Pletcher.  She is from the family of Belmont winners Rags to Riches and Jazil.  #6 Purpose of Life is from the family of Grade 1 winners Chaposa Springs and You and I, and she brought $220k after working a furlong in 10.3 in May.
 
Selections:  2-1-5-3
 
Race 4:  #2 Sheriffa is 7/5 on the ML as she drops all the way down in class looking for her second win, and while she is the horse to beat, it's not as if she can just sleep-walk through this field.  #4 Prove It All Night switched back to dirt at Saratoga and burned off several runners who were on the chase in there while remaining clear of the closers in a much-the-best win.  #1 Andromeda's Risk rode a gold rail to a big upset win in debut, but she has had her share of excuses since then, and she drops down for first start back from a layoff.  #9 Sharpandwitty has speed, which Pace Projector indicates will play in this race, and she was stuck contesting the pace on a dead rail in first start back from the layoff on July 11.
 
Selections:  4-2-1-9
 
Race 5:  #8 Lucky Nancy E. was allowed to walk along on an uncontested lead and took a field wire to wire at a big price here on July 11.  Pace Projector puts her in a similar scenario today, and she is a dangerous horse in this race.  #1 Run to Mama improved on turf right along as a 3yo, and she found a tougher race (Race Rating of 91) in her 4yo debut upstate.  Can come forward off of that one, and has enough speed to keep the pace in her sights.  #5 Chrysolite is an improving horse whom we will use at the expense of #2 The Lady Says Yes and #4 Caribean Beat, both closers who may be compromised by the race shape. 
 
Selections:  1-8-5-4
 
Race 6:  #1 Costenia had a no-chance trip at Gulfstream on April 18 (unnoticed by the chart caller) and then dropped in class at Saratoga to crush a field with an 88 TFUS Speed Figure.  Effort similar to that makes her very tough for this field to beat.  
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#3 Lonely Teardops has picked up her game since arriving in NY, posting speed figures of 71 and 82 in her two starts, and she has tactical speed from a good post.  #7 Funky Munky Fever is a deep closer who needs pace to close into, but she's good enough to win this if the set-up is there.  #5 Winner's Legacy prevailed in a close photo in a race dominated by closers upstate; may not get the same set-up here.  #2 Untiltherewasyou improved with the stretch-out to put up a TFUS Speed Figure of 87 on a muddy track last time.  Makes her first start on turf with blinkers on today. 
 
Selections:  1-3-7-5
 
Race 7:  #2 Sweetpollypurebrd had some speed but could only chase an impressive winner on debut last month.  She was a clear second best at the end with an 80 TFUS Speed Figure and is the horse to beat today.  She faces some interesting first-time starters, including #9 First Service.  First Service brought $110k after zipping a furlong in 10 flat back in March.  #4 Sandra has a perfect Breeding Rating of 100 for dirt sprints, and she is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner, and Breeders' Cup F & M Sprint runnerup, Dust and Diamonds, but trainer gets a rating of 0 with first-time starters. 
 
Selections:  9-2-3-7
 
Race 8:  Strong first-level allowance on the grass features several potential stakes performers.  #9 American Girl was highly impressive winning her debut in Ireland earlier this year, and she finished strong after getting very headstrong and being pulled back to last in her stateside debut.  Has a huge pedigree and much potential.  
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#6 Zinzay flashed potential at 2 and may have needed that first start back from a layoff at Saratoga.  She's eligible to go forward, and is dangerous if she does.  #1A Dancing House is first-time lasix for her 3yo debut (100 trainer rating for McLaughlin with that move), and also flashed potential last year.  #3 Run of the River and #7 Secret Someone are both well-bred and well-connected, and they've both run races on grass to suggest that they have this kind of ability.
 
Selections:  9-6-7-1A
 
Race 9:  #5 East Coast Express hasn't sprinted on turf since her debut last April, but she did not run poorly that day, and she has, in fact, run well several times over turf, which is not something that can be said for most of her competition.  She was caught up dueling a fast pace that collapsed last time.  She is far from a likely winner, but she'll be a price, and it's that kind of race.  We've tried #10 Barrier to Entry in each of her last four starts, and have not been rewarded despite her running well a couple of times.  Getting tired of her, and don't like the rider change for this, but this is the right class drop.  
 
Selections:  5-10-7-11
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 12, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 12, 2014

Race 1, All 2-year-olds, one mile, dirt, 1:05 p.m.

TALE OF FANCY (bay colt, Tale of Ekati—Fancy Clancy, by Rahy) is out of a three-time winning half-sister to Joyeaux Danseur, who took the Grade 1 Early Times Turf Classic; and Doubles Partner, victorious in the Grade 3 Anne Arundel. Fancy Clancy, who won exclusively on the turf, has produced eight winners from nine starters, among them Fancy Fusaichi, winner of the listed Iowa Distaff Breeders’ Cup; Fancy Point, who won the P.G. Johnson and was third in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo on the turf as a juvenile; El Commodore, who placed in four graded stakes on the grass; Powerchord, second in a minor stakes at Calder Race Course; and Fancy Ribbons, third earlier this year in a restricted stakes at Woodbine.

Owner: Charles Fipke

Trainer: Barclay Tagg

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Race 3, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, dirt, 2:07 p.m.

CARIOCA GIRL (dark bay or brown filly, Malibu Moon—Double Trouble, by Wild Event) is out of a mare who won the Grade 1 Santa Maria Handicap on a synthetic surface and a Group 2 race on the turf in Brazil. Double Trouble has produced two other foals, and both are unraced.

Owner: Patricia Bozano

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Javier Castellano

 

PARIS BIKINI (bay filly, Bernardini—Lacadena, by Fasliyev) is out of a mare who was second in a listed stakes on Woodbine’s synthetic surface. She has produced two starters, with her lone winner, America, being Grade 1 placed after finishing a distant third in this year’s Mother Goose.

Owner: Bobby Flay

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

 

PURPOSE OF LIFE (bay filly, Malibu Moon—Chapena, by Fusaichi Pegasus) is out of an unraced half-sister to Chaposa Springs, winner of the Grade 1 Test and Grade 1 Ballerina; and Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap victor You and I. Chapena has produced two winners from four starters, including who is Camille, who captured a restricted stakes over the Ocala Training Center’s synthetic surface. Purpose of Life’s second dam, La Chaposa, was named Champion Sprinter in Peru, where she won a pair of Group 1 races.

Owner: Sagamore Farm

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Sales history: $220,000 Fasig-Tipton Timonium 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 3/5 seconds, video)

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

TimeformUS Analysis for September 11

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont on Thursday September 11th

Race 1:  #2 Noble Doss returned from a layoff at this level over this track back in June and buried a field with a TFUS Speed Figure of 92.  Drops back down after two starts vs. tougher upstate, and he has enough speed to be close in a race projected to favor the frontrunners.  #5 Magnificent Moon has come back better than ever off a long layoff as a 6yo, winning 3 of his 4 starts around one turn on dirt.  Has never run a figure fast enough to contend with the best race of a couple of these, but he's first off the claim for a very dangerous trainer.  #1 Most Happy Fella hasn't been at his best recently and drops in class once again, looking for the right level.  Has back races that would be plenty good enough.
 
Selections:  2-5-1-3
 
Race 2:  #8 Beauty Surprise stumbled at the start, then was bumped and carried out wide into the first turn against a tougher field last time.  Has more speed than that when away cleanly and can use it to positive effect in this field.  #3 Shaikha is clearly fast enough to win this, but she's been happy to settle for minor awards so far, and we don't mind trying to beat her once again.   #6 Reckless Move gave way to finish behind a couple of these last time, but she was just starting back from a layoff.  Can do better with that one behind her, and Pace Projector places her on the early lead.
 
Selections:  8-3-6-2
 
Race 3:  #2 Shore Runner has put up TFUS Speed Figures of 99 and 101 for his last two starts.  If he runs that well again, this field is unlikely to be able to cope, and he has enough speed to keep up with the pace. 
 
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#4 Slamarama has the back races to compete with Shore Runner, and he has speed, but he has proven incapable of running a race like that recently.  Instead, we'll use a little of #7 Joking, who comes back to grass and restricted claiming company for his second start back off the layoff.  He's been a solid and consistent dirt sprinter throughout his career, but he has run well enough on turf in the past.
 
Selections:  2-7-4-6
 
Race 4: ML favorite #10 Spa City Treasure was compromised by a slow pace and couldn't catch wire-to-wire winner Eternal Bull at Saratoga, and he feels like the horse to beat, though we wonder about 7 furlongs for him.  As an alternative to him, we'll try #4 Bad to the Roan.  We've been wrong about him since his debut, when he was well-bet and unlucky to be racing against the grain of an intensely inside-speed-favoring track, but he's been given a little time to regroup, and he has a strong Breeding Rating of 89 for turf sprints.  
 
Selections:  4-10-8-11
 
Race 5:  #1 Frame projects for a clear early lead in a race favoring horses on or near the lead, and he is entered right back at the right level after posting a solid win on the drop. 
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#6 Perfect Disco put up an 88 TFUS Speed Figure when dropped in class for his new trainer, and a figure like that will make him competitive with Frame.  Concern is that he hasn't been seen in the 116 days since that race, and he was listed as a vet scratch back on June 6th.  #2 Herd Mentality gets a pass for the recent turf try, but he was a no-excuse 2nd after getting loose on the lead at this level two back, and Frame is faster than he is early. 
 
Selections:  1-2-6-5
 
Race 6:  #4 Midnight Citra made a promising debut over this surface back in June before trying turf to no avail upstate.  78 TFUS Speed Figure she earned for that debut is tops in the field on dirt, and we like her chances switching back to this surface.  #9 Kinsley was outpaced early on in strong MSW sprint upstate, but she raced on through the stretch and was still going after the wire.  Eligible to improve rapidly for Pletcher, and is likely to bring more speed this time.  #1 Cover Up was away last and outrun early when no threat behind a pair of promising fillies in her debut, and she is also eligible to be better for the experience. 
 
Selections:  4-9-1-7
 
Race 7:  #6 Charlie's Picnic appeared to appreciate the cut-back to this distance two back as he circled the field and finished gamely to prevail.  Cutting back again and drops in class.  #1A Battled is a wildcard, having never run on turf, but he's the fastest horse in the race and is dropping in class off the trainer change.  #5 Lunar Tales dropped in class at Saratoga and was unable to impact after getting bumped at the break.  New trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with turf sprinters. 
 
Selections:  6-1A-5-4
 
Race 8:  #5 Surfing U S A and #6 Mosler returned from layoffs and finished last and next-to-last in a loaded-looking allowance race at Saratoga on August 16, but we thought we could make excuses for both of them.  Surfing U S A stumbled badly at the start and lost his best chance.
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Mosler looked something less than fully cranked pre-race, and then was sent up to contest the pace before giving way in the stretch.  We're expected both to show more this time, and since we liked Mosler quite a bit as a 2yo, we'll give him preference.  #4 Cool Samurai is also interesting as he makes what is essentially his 3yo debut after showing much promise in his first two career starts, one of which came over this track and trip.
 
Selections:  6-4-5-8
 
Race 9:  #1 Maura's Pass was caught wide throughout turf debut on opening day of the Saratoga meet, and she was never put in position to run when defeated as the favorite in her return up there.  Can be given one more chance. #11 Bella Kateri is the clear horse to beat, and she had a troubled trip of her own last time when she may have been best.  #2 Manner of Speaking is eligible to improve as she makes her 3yo debut with a trainer change and lasix on for the first time.  
 
Selections:  1-11-2-9
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, September 11, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, September 11, 2014

Race 6, 2-year-old fillies, one mile, dirt, 3:41 p.m.

CARA MARIE (gray/roan filly, Unbridled’s Song—Miss Kilroy, by A.P. Indy) is a half-sister to Abby’s Angel, who won a listed stakes at Hawthorne and was second in the Grade 3 Gardenia; and Miss Jean Brodie, second in the Group 1 Irish Oaks on the grass. Three of four starters out of their unraced dam have won. Cara Marie’s second dam, Miss Caerleona, was a turf runner who won the Grade 3 Cardinal Handicap and produced Grade 2 Davona Dale winner Miss Coronado and Karen’s Caper, who took a pair of grade 3 grass races and was grade 1/group 1 placed. Cara Marie was the second most expensive of 50 yearlings by Unbridled’s Song to sell at auction in 2013.

Owner: Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer: Anthony Dutrow

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $90,000 Keeneland November weanling; $460,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction