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TimeformUS Analysis for July 3

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

 

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for racing on Thursday, July 3
 
Race 1:  On paper, there is plenty of potential for a strongly contested pace among any or all of the following: #1A Sweet Sway, #3 Here's Zealicious, and #6 Pearls for Girls.  We'll see if Sweet Sway indeed wheels back just six days after being claimed, and whether she is as sharp early as she was last time.  If she's not, or if her connections elect not to run, that may leave Here's Zealicious in the driver's seat.  Assuming the field stays intact, we'll give #2 Your Time Is Up a chance to land the right trip, which may be enough to help her get back to the solid form she was in earlier this year; last was a step in the right direction after dueling three-wide, a trip she has almost zero chance of pulling in this spot.  #5 Spinit to Winit is also hoping for that contested pace scenario as she turns back in distance.  
 
Selections:  2-5-3-6
 
 
Race 2:  #5 Navy Blue is by new sire Midshipman, who was a multiple Grade 1 winning two-year-old a few years ago, and is a half to the stakes-winning NY-bred sprinter Saltamontes, a winner of 5 races and over $200k in her career (Navy Blue's pedigree rating is a strong 97 for dirt sprints); trainer can pop with a first-time starter.  
 
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#4 Unauthorized figures ready for dangerous first-out connections of Klaravich/Violette, who have teamed up to win with many a 2yo first-time starter over the years.  #3 Just Economics has valuable experience, and his debut at Delaware was not bad after getting outrun early and forced to race wide throughout.  
 
Selections:  5-4-3-7
 
 
Race 3:  Some very good NY-bred mares entered for the $100k Dancin Renee, but it's difficult to work up much enthusiasm for standing against heavy ML favorite #1 La Verdad.  La Verdad was all heart to prevail going longer than she prefers last time, but gets the right turn-back here, is the fastest horse, and projects to be on a clear early lead.  We're happy to see #3 Willet back for a 6yo campaign, and will look forward to her landing in a race with a more favorable scenario going forward, perhaps at Saratoga.
 
Selections:  1-3-5-2
 
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Race 4:  More two-year-olds on tap here, and #2 Presto Magic has the experience edge on this group; figures to improve off that run, as she raced greenly in there while on the chase, but stayed gamely to the finish, and trainer Kelly Breen pulls a very strong 93 rating with second-time starters.
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#3 Cavorting is the most interesting newcomer, being out of Promenade Girl, who was a Grade 2 winner and was multiple Grade 1-placed in her career and earned over $678k, though she was at her best over a route of ground.  
 
Selections:  2-3-4-5
 
 
Race 5:  #10 Secret Ops switched to grass last time and wound up running off on a too-fast pace before tiring through the stretch; has to get an additional furlong today, but gets a positive rider change, and may settle more effectively with blinkers removed.  #9 Pilatus may be the horse to beat, but he holds no edge on speed figures, and couldn't take advantage of a perfect trip into a fast pace last time.  #2 Mischieviously may do better as he drops down for the first time, and he didn't get the best ride in the world in a race for amateur jockeys at Pimlico in his turf debut.
 
Selections:  10-9-2-4
 
 
Race 6:  We'll see what ultimately happens with #6 Tiznowforamerica, but we think he has more ability than is displayed on the bare form, and this appears to be a spot where he can begin to finally put everything together.  Tiznowforamerica has plenty of early speed, and Pace Projector for this race indicates that this may be the first race that he can control up front since last September, when he took a field of maidens wire to wire at Saratoga.
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We also think that getting that race in off the layoff may have benefited him, as that was a race that not only contained another speed for him to deal with, but had the talented Rock Fall (who appears to be on his way into stakes company) sitting a perfect tracking trip before blowing by when ready in the stretch.  This field may not be quite as tough, or at least there is no rival at the level of Rock Fall to deal with, and we think Tiznowforamerica may be set to rebound.
 
Selections:  6-3-2-7
 
 
Race 7:  Only seven for this turf sprint, and there is not much separating the three favorites, who are drawn in the three inside posts.  #1 Pep the Champ took advantage of a perfect pace set-up to break his maiden on the drop last time; #2 Distorted Dream, a disappointment on dirt earlier in his career, has improved since switched to grass and finished gamely after a wire-to-wire winner at Monmouth last time; and #3 Official made an OK turf debut going longer last month.  We have nothing to latch onto with those three as far as separating them goes but think #7 Lane Allen could be an interesting alternative.  Lane Allen's only turf start came in that same fast-paced race that produced Peb the Champ's maiden win, but Lane Allen didn't have near the perfect trip that that one had, and can be given another chance. 
 
Selections:  7-2-1-3
 
 
Race 8:  Tough calls on the two ML favorites, as #6 Ah Gaga is making her first start since mid-January, and #4 Discreet Force exits a dismal effort in her first start of the year and immediately drops in class.  The alternatives really aren't there, so we are going to rely on at least one of them to show up with a representative effort.  We could back-up with #2 Chocolat City, although she was pretty disappointing in her NY debut last month, and the top 2 are better than anything she faced in that spot.
 
Selections:  6-4-2-3
 
 
Race 9:  5 of the 8 for this turf route exit the 6th race on June 1st, and while #2 Strike Accord came away with the best placing that day, others had more-difficult trips, and, while we like her and have tried her often in the past, she just isn't the kind of horse that we are ever interested in taking at any short price.  This appears to be a situation where #4 Irish Sweepstakes can control the action up front, as Pace Projector places her in clear control early on, and she ran well enough in her turf debut for us to give her one more chance.  #6 Caribean Beat and #8 Alternative Meds were unable to impact that June 1st race from off the pace, but they were off of layoffs and had trouble exiting the chute that day; both are eligible to do much better. 
 
Selections:  4-8-6-7
 
 
Race 10:  #12 Illapa may be up against it from post 12 off the layoff, but we liked what we saw from her as a 2yo, and she figures to be too interesting a price to ignore.  #4 Skipping has dangerous speed, and figures to improve in her turf debut, being a half to Meribel, who won 6 times on grass in her career while making over $520k.  #11 Miadora is the "other"Clement, and she may also appreciate this surface switch as her dam is a sister to turf stakes winners Followmyfootsteps and Corporate Jungle.  
 
Selections:  12-4-11-1
 
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, July 3, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, July 3, 2014

Race 4, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, 2:53 p.m.

CAVORTING (bay filly, Bernardini—Promenade Girl, by Carson City) looks to become the second winner from three starters out of her dam, who won five stakes, including the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher. Promenade Girl, who also finished third in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap and Grade 1 Spinster, is a half-sister to restricted stakes winner Dattts Awesome.

Owner: Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $360,000 Keeneland November weanling

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Race 3, All 2-year-olds, five furlongs, 2:22 p.m.

DINNER TIME (chestnut colt, Montbrook—Potluck Dinner, by Pentelicus) is a half-brother to Gourmet Dinner, who has won four stakes, including the 2010 Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot. Another half-sibling, the filly Gaston A., won a minor stakes at Calder Race Course. Their dam, who was unplaced in her lone start, has produced six winners from seven starters and is a half-sister to five-time stakes-winning sprinter Sea of Green and to Lady Gin, who captured three stakes, including the Bassinet at River Downs as a juvenile.

Owner: Our Sugar Bear Stable

Trainer: Bruce Brown

Jockey: Dylan Davis

Sales history: $75,000 OBS March 2-year-old (two furlongs in 22 2/5 seconds, video)

 

CAT FIFTYFIVE (gray/roan colt, Tale of the Cat—Chemise, by Secret Hello) is a half-brother to three stakes winners in Maryland: Coquettish, who won the restricted Maryland Juvenile Filly Championship; Miss Lombardi, victorious in the restricted Maryland Million Ladies; and Dress Gray, who took the open Smart Halo. Nine of Chemise’s 10 starters have won.

Owner: Matthew Schera

Trainer: James Lawrence II

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Sales history: $185,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling

 

MACHINATION (bay colt, Yes It’s True—Sala de Oro, by Expelled) is a full-brother to Truth and Justice, who as a 2-year-old filly won the My Trusty Cat at Delta Downs, Sorority at Monmouth Park, and Presque Isle Debutante. A half-sister, Mr. Hall’s Opus, was second in last year’s Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks. Their dam won the Barbara Shinpoch at Emerald Downs as a juvenile and is a half-sister to multiple stakes winners Hall of Gold and No Turbulence. All eight of Sala de Oro’s starters have won.

Owner: George & Lori Hall

Trainer: Kelly Breen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

 

I SPENT IT (bay colt, Super Saver—Rateeba, by Sky Mesa) is the third foal out of his dam, whose lone previous starter was winless in five starts. Rateeba won a single race, a maiden event at Evangeline Downs, in 10 starts and is a half-sister to Cocky, who was second in the Grade 2 San Rafael; Eishin Le Mars, who placed in a pair of stakes in Japan; and Pert Lady, who produced multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Zavata.

Owner: Alex & JoAnn Lieblong

Trainer: Anthony Dutrow

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $65,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling; $600,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-old (one furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, video)

 

BATTLE RED (chestnut colt, Kitten’s Joy—Talking Treasure, by Catienus) is out of a dam who won five stakes for New York-breds: the Bouwerie, the Lady d’Accord, the New York Oaks, the Saratoga Dew, and the Fleet Indian. She has no winners from two previous starters.

Owner: Jake Ballis & Rashard Lewis

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $125,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling; $270,000 Keeneland April 2-year-old (one furlong in 9 3/5 seconds, video)

 

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis: July 2

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Wednesday July 2 at Belmont
 
Race 1:  Some interesting NY-bred juvenile fillies making their debuts here, so this may be a good race to watch closely for future reference, no matter who wins.  #3 Razia Sultana is a half to the graded stakes performer Samraat, winner of his first five career starts for this trainer, who is an ace in these 5-to-5.5-furlong dirt sprints with babies.  #2 Zo Zo and #4 She's Marvy were both six-figure purchases out of 2yo-in-training sales a few months back; Zo Zo looked solid working 10.1 in April and is from a strong Claiborne family on the dam side, while She's Marvy looked more green working 10.2 while on her wrong lead in March.  #5 Ten Penny Princess is a half to Lady Paradime, whose three career wins have all come routing, so she may want more ground than this, but her trainer does an excellent job with first-time starters. 
 
Selections:  3-2-5-4
 
 
Race 2:  #3 The Rhythmisright really had no excuse when defeated at a short price vs. just three others two starts back, but that was a 6.5-furlong race, and the horse he was outfinished by was winning his third straight off the claim by Michelle Nevin; caught up in a duel over a sloppy track that last one, he's projected to be on a clear lead this time. Not so sure that #6 John's Island won't be a better horse than The Rhythmisright when all is said and done, and he ran very well in the Mike Lee without much pace to close into, but he may be too far up against it once again today.  #2 Indy Tune rolled late from far back off a strong pace just six days ago, and outfinished #5 B Shanny; both were claimed out of that race for $20k.  
 
Selections:  3-6-4-2
 
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Race 3:  #2 Evolution debuts for a shrewd trainer and has pedigree, being a Speightstown out of a dam who was Grade 2-placed in her career and whose three wins all came sprinting on the dirt.  #6 I Spent It, another big-ticket Super Saver colt, was impressive in working a furlong in 9.4 on his own power before bringing $600k in March; attracts leading rider for debut.  #7 Battle Red figures ready for Pletcher, and he may not be a typical Kitten's Joy (whatever that is) after blitzing a furlong in 9.3 at Keeneland April; dam won multiple NY-bred stakes races over dirt en route to over $360k in earnings.  #5 Machination goes for a solid debut barn and has a pair of siblings who were debut winners for these connections.
 
Selections:  2-6-7-5
 
 
Race 4:  #7 Bridgetta is third back from her long layoff, and appears to be in a good situation trip-wise from her outside post, as she projects to be tracking shipper #3 Darn That Trip, who appears to be a little cheap and who has never won beyond 5.5 furlongs on dirt.  #2 Very Accomplished has done little wrong through four starts and did not get the best trip in the world when defeated as the favorite when last seen in April; wins both two-and three-starts back were convincing.  #8 Sheriffa is a logical contender but hasn't run fast enough yet if either, or both, of the top two brings her best, and couldn't  get to Bridgetta last time despite a good tracking trip as that one contested the pace.
 
Selections:  7-2-8-4
 
 
Race 5:  Appears to be a good spot for #5 Wild Kay at a short price, as she has run all of the fastest races, projects to be on a clear lead, and proved that she can run her race in NY when defeating similar earlier in the meet.  #2 Platinum Bombshell turns back after failing to hold early leads going longer in three of last four starts; trainer having a very good meet.  #6 Magma is a European import, but she's been much better on dirt since arriving stateside.  
 
Selections:  5-2-6-4
 
 
Race 6:  #7 Stableford made a promising stateside debut early in the meet, and he was way up against it from a dynamics standpoint last time when getting away at the back of the field and then taking a wide run into a race that was slow early, and very fast late; deserves another chance.
 
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#3 V. E. Day closed with a rush through the final 1/16 to track down the pace-setting favorite over a sloppy main track last time, but he has proven form over turf, and in fact ran better than it looks in both Gulfstream starts.  #2 Make a Decision is capable and may have simply needed that last one off the layoff.
 
Selections:  7-3-2-1
 
 
Race 7:  #7 Wellington Wizard couldn't make an impact late after a good trip vs. a tougher bunch of three-life claimers last time (that field was rated an 88 vs. today's 83), but he was first back from a layoff there and can be expected to improve with that one behind him; liked both of his dirt wins at Parx last year, despite his racing greenly there. #5 Magnificent Moon has been in good form since returning from an extended break as a 6yo earlier this year, and he drops back down to the right level after facing a much tougher group of starter allowance foes last month.  #2 Bridgeville was up late to prevail when cut back to a sprint last time; stretches back out, and figures to be a factor up front. #4 Citizen Wells is a deep closer taking a huge class drop for this after failing to come close in any of his last three starts dating back to last May; has run a few figures that would drown this field.  
 
Selections:  7-5-2-4
 
 
Race 8:  #5 Sensible Lady is 0-4 since being purchased by top connections, and perhaps she has lost a step as a 5yo, but she has still run well in some tough spots and will get one more chance while making her third start off the layoff.  #6 Cat Lore didn't run nearly as well as Sensible Lady despite finishing ahead of her at Woodbine last July; has ability, and she's been turned over to Clement since then, so we may see a different, and better, horse today.  #1 To My Valentine has run some impressive races sprinting on grass, and will try to put her pace advantage to good use.  
 
Selections:  5-6-1-3
 
 
Race 9:  Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap for this NY-bred maiden claimer on grass, and that may be a good thing for our choice, #9 Downgoesfrazier, who will be closing, and who endured a tough wide trip from off of a slower pace going long when last seen; has sprinted effectively on turf, which is no small thing.  
 
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#10 Vecino gets the biggest class drop of all, as he exits an open company MSW, and he was off of a very long layoff that day; ran well in there after contesting the pace, but faces a tough scenario here, as well.  #11 Bajan Sumer also drops, and based on his last race, when outfinished by a 96/1 shot for 3rd after a perfect trip, he needs it.  
 
Selections:  9-10-4-11
 
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