Saturday, September 27, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Sunday September 28th
Race 1: #2 Battle Red is the main speed in this turf sprint for maidens, and he seemed to take to grass well enough when contesting the pace and then proving no match for an impressive debut winner most recently. He feels like the horse to beat, but there are other interesting horses in here. #1 River of Dreams doesn't have much turf pedigree, but his dam did win on grass in her career, and he impressed in his debut after encountering severe trouble at the start and then racing wide on an inside-speed-favoring track. #3 Prima Storm pulls a very strong Breeding Rating for turf sprints and debuts for Clement, who is among the very best at having his first-time starters ready to go. #8 A Lot was on a wide chase throughout his debut, which was another day where inside speed was deadly at Saratoga, and he is a half to a turf winner.
Race 2: #10 Ostrolenka debuted sprinting over a sloppy sealed track, but he may appreciate having the extra ground to work with today. He has a solid 86 Breeding Rating for dirt routes, and he is a half-brother to Great Gracie Dane, an earner of over $340k who was best routing on dirt. #9 Bellamy Way took some money first time out but had no speed and raced evenly. Eligible to improve quickly. #3 Persuasive Devil has run well three times without coming away with a victory, but he has speed and is stretching out with some foundation.
Race 3: #4 Acrostic appeared to need a few starts once returned from a long layoff earlier this year, but she came through with a better performance when sprinting on grass for the first time here earlier in the meet, and a similar effort makes her tough in here. #5 Buy or Steal returns from the layoff on the drop, and she showed some speed first time out. The horse who defeated her in that debut run is now a stakes winner. #1 Flapper Girl drops down and switches to turf for second career start, and she has enough pedigree to handle the switch (74 rating for turf; her dam is a sister to a pair of graded stakes winners on grass). Hushion gets perfect 100 rating with second-time starters and when adding blinkers.
Race 4: #1 Depeche Chat is tough in this spot with his best race, and perhaps we'll see it here as he goes first off the claim for Jacobson (96 rating). Like him cutting back a bit to this distance, and like the change to a more aggressive rider. #2 Thomas Hill has run quite a bit better than his 0-9 record this year may indicate, and he may be more effective over this longer trip than some of the others. #3 Awakino Cat can also run his race going this distance, and that may give him the edge over ML favorite #7 Mish Mosh, who had his number upstate.
Race 5: #8 Stephen A has been at his best over a one-turn mile in his career and figures to appreciate the turn-back here after stopping badly going longer upstate. Drops in class off that effort and has enough speed to stay close, as he did in convincing win over this track/trip two starts back with 91 TFUS Speed Figure. #2B Straight Fax is one of our favorites, and he ran well last time despite being wide off of a moderate pace. #3 Mr. Espresso also turns back out of a pair of 9-furlong tries upstate, and he was in good form over this track over the summer.
Race 6: #7 Gridley Here is back to dirt, and an effort like his lone start on this surface up at Saratoga (89 TFUS Speed Figure) makes him very tough in here. #4 Sea Raven is a tough read off perfect-trip maiden score over a sloppy track, but he's very lightly raced, and they paid some money for him. #5 Salisbury Knight has faced better than this on dirt since his maiden win over a sloppy track, and he may have an early advantage in a race without much other speed signed on.
Race 7: Miss Grillo stakes goes through the Chad Brown barn, as he has three entered, all of them impressive winners upstate. #9 Lady Eli figures to attract plenty of attention off her electrifying late run after getting trapped in traffic first time out. #10 Partisan Politics stretched out to break her maiden in stakes company, and showed real professionalism to hold her position after taking a hard bump heading into the first turn. #1 Tammy the Torpedo caught a fast early pace to close into, and may have faced the weakest field of the three, but she was impressive nonetheless. #11 My Cara Mia was given a very good ride, but also really ran in her winning debut sprinting six furlongs.
Race 8: #3 Effinex couldn't get to frontrunning So Lonesome, who cut a fast pace in the Albany, but he drops back in class and distance for this. Pace Projector indicates that there will be another fast pace in front of him today, and he has a better chance to close these horses down. #4 Onecats Chance has picked up his game noticeably of late, and done so while deploying newfound positional speed. #6 Modern Child can get the right trip away from the expected fast pace, and he ran deceptively well last time after getting outrun early. #10 Quick Money is the ML favorite, and he will appreciate any pace that develops, but he is a question mark stretching out in distance.
Race 9: #2 Startup Nation is two-for-two, with one effort more impressive than the next. Looks like a real runner for Chad Brown after powering last-to-first in Grade 2 score at Saratoga. #4 Imperia made an impressive debut of his own despite coming away second best. He had to switch around very wide to get a run, and he continued making ground on a frontrunning #3 Face the Music all the way. Makes second start (99 rating for this trainer) with lasix added (97 rating). #8 Strong Coffee impressed in his debut win, then returned for the With Anticipation showing only one work in the interim and didn't back up that effort. Can do better this time.
Race 10: Finale doesn't appear to be a bad spot for a first-time starter. #4 Celebrate We Will gets a 93 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints and debuts for a barn in the midst of a good run. #7 Domer appears to be working well for a trainer who can win with first-time starters, and he is also well-bred for dirt sprints (89 rating). Half-brother Longfor the City debuted on grass, but was a winner the first time he tried dirt. #10 Readyheartandsoul has run the best races so far, but he had a perfect trip tracking along a live rail last time and couldn't seriously threaten in the stretch. #5 Wildniteattheopera closed well into a fast pace over a muddy track first time out and was game in the stretch to just miss. #9 Freudex put in a decent run in his debut 163 days ago, and he will be a threat if able to build upon that effort. Was listed as a vet scratch on September 1.