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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for October 2

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of the Races at Glorious Belmont Park on Thursday October 2
Race 1:  #4 Rachel's Temper dropped in vs. MCL company for the first time when off the layoff at Saratoga, and she ran well while only 2nd best behind an impressive winner.  Can do better second time back, and there is enough speed signed on here to keep things honest in front of her.  #1 Beauty Surprise was rated back in the early stages last time, and those tactics worked well, though she was still outfinished at a short price.  Has some speed at her disposal and projects for a nice trip tracking along the inside.  #8 Angel Choir drops back down after facing a couple of tough fields at Saratoga, and she narrowly missed in back-to-back races at big prices two-and three-starts back.
Selections:  4-1-8-6
Race 2:  #2 Kool Kat Strut steadied out at the start and may have been intimidated while racing down on the rail throughout his debut run behind a blowout winner.  Can do better for the experience, and may possess more speed, assuming a clean break this time.  #6 No Herring has yet to run on fast dirt, and he drops in class for third career start after chasing a fast pace and tiring in what has turned out to be a live race.  #3 Saratoga Shock debuts for top connections and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with 2yo first-time starters in MCL company.  
Selections:  2-6-3-5
Race 3:  #4 Zoebear has yet to sprint on dirt since arriving in NY, but he'll do so off the claim here.  Earned TFUS Speed Figures of 99 and 100 the last two times he sprinted over fast dirt.  #1 Make a Fortune looked good rolling clear in the mud 11 days ago, and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating bringing horses back in sprints off of this kind of rest.  Projects to be the clear early speed in this race, assuming he is the half of the entry that starts.  #5 Shankopotamus was against a track that was favoring speed and the inside when pulled up as the favorite last time.  Effort two back makes him tough, and he has the early speed to be effective in this spot. 
Selections:  4-1-5-3
Race 4:  #1 She's Roman got bet but failed to establish forward position from the rail first-time out and wound up getting outrun early before commencing a strong late rally.  She fell just short of catching #5 Miss Potenza for second, and then galloped out strongly past the field after the wire.  Miss Potenza battled on the pace with the winner in that spot, and she stayed gamely all the way despite being unable to get by to the lead.  #3 Zo Zo disappointed at short prices in first two starts on dirt, then switched over to turf last time to no avail.  Back to dirt and on the drop for a trainer who pulls a perfect 100 rating with runners dropping from MSW to MCL company.  
Selections:  1-5-3-2
Race 5:  #7 Joking couldn't get to a frontrunning winner on a moderate pace when back on turf last time.  Figures to be up close in a race that favors that running style, and he has shown in the past that he can run his race on grass.  #1 Why Not Whiskey is an infrequent winner, and he projects to be up against it from a pace perspective, but he has been holding good form recently and drops down in class with the top Late Pace Rating in the field.  #2 Honor the Kitten also has a strong late kick, and his Late Pace rating of 96 falls just shy of Why Not Whiskey's 99.  
Selections:  7-1-2-3
Race 6:  #2 Kerjillion was no match for his impressive stablemate Offering Plan on debut at Saratoga, but he raced on gamely to be a clear 2nd best and is eligible to be better for the experience.  Offering Plan flattered that effort when returning to finish a solid 3rd in graded stakes company last weekend.  #5 Fulmer has a solid Breeding Rating of 86 for turf routes, and Clement is among the very best in the game at having his first-time starters set to go long on grass first-time out (100 rating).  #6 Fleeting didn't factor after taking some money in sprint debut but can improve off that one and may appreciate stretching out, being from the family of Plenty of Grace and Soaring Softly, both multiple graded stakes winners routing on dirt.  Seems unlikely that he'll get in, but if he does, then #15 Scooby Dude bears watching.  He made an impressive, if ill-timed, run in his debut while flashing plenty of ability. 
Selections:  2-5-6-15
Race 7:  #3 Frogman Mel figures to be a playable price in an open-looking race, and he gets a trainer change to Steve Klesaris (87 overall rating).  Didn't bring his speed over to Monmouth last time, but he is fast enough to be close in a race that projects to favor runners on or near the early lead.  #4 Vona switched to turf off the claim at Saratoga and stayed gamely after cutting the pace before dropping a narrow decision.  Will be tough in here with a similar effort.  #9 Elusive Success ran the two best races of his life when returned from a long layoff earlier this year.  Has been away an additional 200 days since then, but he pulls a strong Pedigree Rating of 87 for turf sprints and can factor in a race like this if ready off the bench.
Selections:  3-4-9-2
Race 8:  #7 Bakken has had his issues, and most recently had to be scratched from the Grade 1 A. G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga in August, but he's a graded stakes quality talent when right and figures to be too much for this field with one of his good races.  Not that he needs the advantage, but Pace Projector places him in control up front early.  #5 Captain Serious appears to be the main danger as he cuts back to a better distance, but he'll need to pick it up a bit (or hope that Bakken doesn't run his race) in order to come out on top.  #4 Protocol has run some very good races, and he was stuck on a four-wide chase when last seem back in June.  Listed as a vet scratch in the interim.
Selections:  7-5-4-1
Race 9:  #11 Loveisheartandsoul is one of four horses dropping out of the 5th race from September 14th, and he wasn't able to work the cleanest of stretch runs in that spot.  Has run well in all five turf starts to date.  #10 Media Kid has been holding good form vs. some better horses and is the horse to beat as he drops down into restricted claiming company.  #4 Wind of Bosphorus was first to attack a fast pace in that 9/14 race, and he battled gamely right to the end despite weakening late.  Was put in tight coming to the wire that day, which likely cost him 3rd.  #7 Trainingforsuccess is a big price on the ML, but he's plenty good enough to contend with theses horses.  
Selections:  11-10-4-7

TimeformUS Analysis for October 1

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Beautiful Belmont Park on Wednesday October 1

Race 1:  #6 Star Magnolia blew a field away with a new TFUS Speed Figure top first off the claim for this trainer, then ran in a pair of much tougher spots.  Returns on the drop, and has speed in a race projected to favor runners on or near the lead.  #4 Rosemarie goes for low-profile connections and has never finished first in a race, but she has the top Spotlight Figure, and, in fact, has run the four fastest races in the field on our figures.  #2 Andromeda's Risk seemed to catch nothing but biased racetracks at Aqueduct earlier in the year and then had a no-chance trip when checking out of contention on April 3rd.  Failed to establish early position upon her return, behind a heavily favored drops down winner, but raced on gamely through the stretch.
Selections:  6-4-2-5
Race 2:  Interesting race pitting four from the 4th race here on September 13 vs. four MSW drop downs.  The first four all have something to recommend them in here.  Of those, we prefer #6 Professor Pegasus, who was in tight down on the rail throughout the stretch run, and finished gamely despite taking a good bump.  #1A Jimmy Fillpot figures tough as he takes the class drop for a hot trainer, and he has speed.  #5 Bold Runner is also a speed, and he's missed narrowly in each of his last two starts at this level.  #4 Perfect Stormy will be a big price, and he found much traffic through the stretch run of that 9/13 race. 
Selections:  6-1A-4-5
Race 3:  #5 Cara Marie took plenty of money but faced a tough task when debuting over a mile here 20 days ago.  Lands in an easier spot second-time out (Race Rating of 76 in debut, 68 today), and her trainer gets them to come forward second time out (99 rating).  #1 Cover Up was also in that MSW race on September 11, and settled for a no-threat 3rd after getting away slowly from the gate.  #6 I'm a Lucky Girl has taken an awful lot of money in first two starts, so there may be some talent waiting to come out.  Ships in to NY for third start while stretching out for a trainer pulling an impressive 99 rating going route to sprint. 
Selections:  5-1-6-3
Race 4:  #2 Southern Sunshine chased down a fast pace set by #9 Super City last time and stayed gamely when overtaken by a perfect-trip winner.  Similar effort makes her tough, and the trainer change to Mott doesn't hurt.  #10 First Summation makes 3yo debut off of a long layoff, and may not appreciate catching the projected fast pace right off the bat, but she ran fast enough as a 2yo to be competitive here.  Super City showed enough talent when cutting that fast pace first time out to be a factor going forward.  
Selections:  2-10-9-3
Race 5:  #7 Seven Stars got a sprint prep in first time back from an extended layoff, and she gets a big drop in class for this.  Has speed in a race that is projected to favor runners up close.  #4 Ready's Legend may be the horse to beat as she is cut in half by Pletcher, but she holds no edge on this field based on recent form, and she figures to be a short price.  #2 Under Scrutiny has won two of her last three on turf, and she is back down in class after getting in too tough last time.  #8 Outer Orbit has dangerous speed in a field lacking much of same, and she was also in too tough last time.
Selections:  7-4-2-8
Race 6:  #4 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid has been facing tougher than this right along for solid connections and figures to appreciate this class drop.  Has shown some signs that she may be tailing off a bit lately, but typical TFUS Speed Figure in the 90s makes her tough on a field like this one.  #2 Madre Ditutticapi may be the main danger to her.  She is also getting some class relief for the first time since her convincing win at this level back in June, and she'll offer more value.  #1 Bobby Jo is the 2/1 favorite on the ML, but she's a good horse to be against today as she steps up off of a trio of perfect-trip wins.
Selections:  2-4-6-1
Race 7:  #2 Blue Pigeon came away from first two starts this year with plausible excuses, and he ran well in defeat last time despite a perfect trip and ride.  Can be given one more chance vs. this field.  #1A Hidden Vow is faster than Blue Pigeon with his best effort, but is difficult to rely on at 1-for-24 and counting.  He has been facing much better fields than this one.  #3 Archer Hill has been holding good turf form all summer for an excellent trainer and is a viable alternative to a pair of favorites who are difficult to trust.
Selections:  2-1A-3-8
Race 8:  #2 Three Alarm Fire caught a fast pace to close into at Saratoga, but he has impressed in both starts so far and appears to have much upside.  Horse he ran by to break his maiden came back with a big win here last week.  #1 Encryption ensures that Three Alarm Fire will have to be as advertised, as he held his own in stakes company over the summer after posting an impressive maiden win of his own.  #4 Lawmaker will have to come forward quickly in a tough spot here, but we were impressed with him earlier, and he was way against the grain of an inside-speed-favoring track when last seen.
Selections:  2-1-4-3
Race 9:  #9 Summersault was unlucky in debut when unable to get out into the clear in the stretch, and she ultimately wound up having to steady late while looking to come up the rail.  Of the four exiting that MSW event from August 28, we'll take her.  #1 Jadam also exits that race, and she was racing greenly down the outside when just missing 2nd in there.  #14 R Y Squadron has pedigree for a trainer who has few peers in preparing turf runners for debut.  Advisable to keep an eye on scratches to see if she draws in.  #3 Light Years Away got in a prep in off-the-turf sprint two weeks ago.  Full sister to stakes winning turf runner In Te Domine is eligible to improve quickly.  


Selections:  9-1-14-5

TimeformUS Analysis for September 28

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Sunday September 28th
Race 1:  #2 Battle Red is the main speed in this turf sprint for maidens, and he seemed to take to grass well enough when contesting the pace and then proving no match for an impressive debut winner most recently.  He feels like the horse to beat, but there are other interesting horses in here.  #1 River of Dreams doesn't have much turf pedigree, but his dam did win on grass in her career, and he impressed in his debut after encountering severe trouble at the start and then racing wide on an inside-speed-favoring track.  #3 Prima Storm pulls a very strong Breeding Rating for turf sprints and debuts for Clement, who is among the very best at having his first-time starters ready to go.  #8 A Lot was on a wide chase throughout his debut, which was another day where inside speed was deadly at Saratoga, and he is a half to a turf winner.  
Selections:  8-3-1-2
Race 2:  #10 Ostrolenka debuted sprinting over a sloppy sealed track, but he may appreciate having the extra ground to work with today.  He has a solid 86 Breeding Rating for dirt routes, and he is a half-brother to Great Gracie Dane, an earner of over $340k who was best routing on dirt.  #9 Bellamy Way took some money first time out but had no speed and raced evenly.  Eligible to improve quickly.  #3 Persuasive Devil has run well three times without coming away with a victory, but he has speed and is stretching out with some foundation.
Selections:  10-9-3-6
Race 3:  #4 Acrostic appeared to need a few starts once returned from a long layoff earlier this year, but she came through with a better performance when sprinting on grass for the first time here earlier in the meet, and a similar effort makes her tough in here.   #5 Buy or Steal returns from the layoff on the drop, and she showed some speed first time out.  The horse who defeated her in that debut run is now a stakes winner.  #1 Flapper Girl drops down and switches to turf for second career start, and she has enough pedigree to handle the switch (74 rating for turf; her dam is a sister to a pair of graded stakes winners on grass).  Hushion gets perfect 100 rating with second-time starters and when adding blinkers.  
Selections:  4-5-1-7
Race 4:  #1 Depeche Chat is tough in this spot with his best race, and perhaps we'll see it here as he goes first off the claim for Jacobson (96 rating).  Like him cutting back a bit to this distance, and like the change to a more aggressive rider.  #2 Thomas Hill has run quite a bit better than his 0-9 record this year may indicate, and he may be more effective over this longer trip than some of the others.  #3 Awakino Cat can also run his race going this distance, and that may give him the edge over ML favorite #7 Mish Mosh, who had his number upstate. 
Selections:  1-2-3-7
Race 5:  #8 Stephen A has been at his best over a one-turn mile in his career and figures to appreciate the turn-back here after stopping badly going longer upstate.  Drops in class off that effort and has enough speed to stay close, as he did in convincing win over this track/trip two starts back with 91 TFUS Speed Figure.  #2B Straight Fax is one of our favorites, and he ran well last time despite being wide off of a moderate pace.  #3 Mr. Espresso also turns back out of a pair of 9-furlong tries upstate, and he was in good form over this track over the summer.
Selections:  8-2B-3-1
Race 6:  #7 Gridley Here is back to dirt, and an effort like his lone start on this surface up at Saratoga (89 TFUS Speed Figure) makes him very tough in here.  #4 Sea Raven is a tough read off perfect-trip maiden score over a sloppy track, but he's very lightly raced, and they paid some money for him.  #5 Salisbury Knight has faced better than this on dirt since his maiden win over a sloppy track, and he may have an early advantage in a race without much other speed signed on.  
Selections:  7-4-5-9
Race 7:  Miss Grillo stakes goes through the Chad Brown barn, as he has three entered, all of them impressive winners upstate.  #9 Lady Eli figures to attract plenty of attention off her electrifying late run after getting trapped in traffic first time out.  #10 Partisan Politics stretched out to break her maiden in stakes company, and showed real professionalism to hold her position after taking a hard bump heading into the first turn.  #1 Tammy the Torpedo caught a fast early pace to close into, and may have faced the weakest field of the three, but she was impressive nonetheless.  #11 My Cara Mia was given a very good ride, but also really ran in her winning debut sprinting six furlongs. 
Selections:  9-10-11-1
Race 8:  #3 Effinex couldn't get to frontrunning So Lonesome, who cut a fast pace in the Albany, but he drops back in class and distance for this.  Pace Projector indicates that there will be another fast pace in front of him today, and he has a better chance to close these horses down.  #4 Onecats Chance has picked up his game noticeably of late, and done so while deploying newfound positional speed.  #6 Modern Child can get the right trip away from the expected fast pace, and he ran deceptively well last time after getting outrun early.  #10 Quick Money is the ML favorite, and he will appreciate any pace that develops, but he is a question mark stretching out in distance.  
Selections:  3-6-10-4
Race 9:  #2 Startup Nation is two-for-two, with one effort more impressive than the next.  Looks like a real runner for Chad Brown after powering last-to-first in Grade 2 score at Saratoga.  #4 Imperia made an impressive debut of his own despite coming away second best.  He had to switch around very wide to get a run, and he continued making ground on a frontrunning #3 Face the Music all the way.  Makes second start (99 rating for this trainer) with lasix added (97 rating).  #8 Strong Coffee impressed in his debut win, then returned for the With Anticipation showing only one work in the interim and didn't back up that effort.  Can do better this time. 
Selections:  2-4-8-3
Race 10:  Finale doesn't appear to be a bad spot for a first-time starter.  #4 Celebrate We Will gets a 93 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints and debuts for a barn in the midst of a good run.  #7 Domer appears to be working well for a trainer who can win with first-time starters, and he is also well-bred for dirt sprints (89 rating).  Half-brother Longfor the City debuted on grass, but was a winner the first time he tried dirt.  #10 Readyheartandsoul has run the best races so far, but he had a perfect trip tracking along a live rail last time and couldn't seriously threaten in the stretch.  #5 Wildniteattheopera closed well into a fast pace over a muddy track first time out and was game in the stretch to just miss.  #9 Freudex put in a decent run in his debut 163 days ago, and he will be a threat if able to build upon that effort.  Was listed as a vet scratch on September 1. 
Selections:  7-4-10-5

Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, September 28, 2014

Jon Forbes


Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, September 28, 2014

Race 1, All 2-year-olds, six furlongs, turf, 12:50 p.m.

PRIMA STORM (bay colt, Stormy Atlantic—Prima Centauri, by Distant View) is out of an unplaced half-sister to Etoile Montante, who won the Group 1 Prix de La Foret and was third in the Group 1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (French 1,000 Guineas). Prima Centauri has produced two winners from four starters. Her lone turf winner, Bodes Galaxy, placed in a pair of group stakes in England as a juvenile. Prima Storm’s fourth dam is Hall of Famer Chris Evert.

Owner: Dixiana Farms

Trainer: Christophe Clement

Jockey: Joel Rosario



To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction