NYRA

The New York Racing Association


Print this Page Bookmark and Share

Blog

TimeformUS Race Analysis

 

 

resize1-200 BC270x200 resize3-200

 

 

TimeformUS Analysis for September 26

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Friday September 26th Racing at Belmont Park
 
Race 1:  Opener shapes up as a battle between dropdowns #1 Celebrated Talent and #7 Battled.  Battled is faster, having posted back-to-back TFUS Speed Figures of 100 and 103 in December and February, and he projects to be the controlling speed from his outside post.  He also has more questions to answer as he makes his first start back from a 174-day layoff with a three-week gap showing in his published works (as of this writing).  Celebrated Talent drops down for McLaughlin (97 rating going from ALW to CLM races) while making his third start back from a layoff (99 rating).  He hasn't run as fast as Battled, but he has the recency and is this field's lone entrant with a win over this 7-furlong distance.
 
Selections:  1-7-2-3
 
Race 2:  #7 Storm Pursuit has won all three career starts on dirt, and he did all the work while dueling the pace last time and was still able to hold off #4 Take Down Two at the end.  Projects to be the controlling speed in this race.  #3 Non Stop gets a pass for his last start, when racing wide and away from the pace over a Saratoga main track that was heavily slanted toward speed (denoted by the Race Rating box shaded in dark red).  Best race makes him very tough in here, if he can run it.  #5 Bemata took advantage of a wicked pace duel when rallying for 2nd last time.  New trainer gets perfect 100 rating with runners second off the claim, but he doesn't figure to have the same kind of set-up in this spot.
 
Selections:  7-3-5-1
 
Race 3:  #3 J to the Croft earned a 93 TFUS Speed Figure for his well-deserved win two starts back, and that is the top turf figure in the field.  Has the positional speed to avoid being compromised by dynamics, and may still have some upside.  #6 Request has reached something of a pivotal race in just his 5th career start.  He has run better than it may appear in pair of losses to begin his 3yo campaign, and he may be set to break through in his third start off the layoff.  Expected dynamics favor J to the Croft (Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead), but Request owns the top Late Pace Rating in the field.  
 
Selections:  3-6-5-4
 
Race 4:  #11 Taghleeb made promising turf debut last time when finishing up strongly after being held up in two different spots through the final turn.  Gets a positive rider change for this and can benefit from the projected fast pace, should it develop.  #1 Coordinate also made his turf debut in that race on August 31st, and he took a tough DQ when best at a huge price in that spot.  He's exposed now, and is coupled with a very well-bred #1A Melville (89 Breeding Rating for turf routes), so you'll be taking a much shorter price if you want to try him again.  #8 Veya shaped with a positive profile according to Timeform analysts in Europe, and he is eligible to come forward in his 3yo debut after running well in pair of starts once arriving stateside last year.  #2 Private Label switches to turf for 3yo debut and may improve quickly based on 89 Breeding Rating for turf routes.  
 
Selections:  11-1/1A-8-2
 
Race 5:  #3 Patty and Nooche has needed pace out in front of him in order to produce his best effort, and he may not have very much of it in this spot (Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead), but he's been facing tougher fields than this since dropped in class and is unlikely to find a better spot than this one.  #9 Perfect Disco needed 116 days between his strong effort with a 91 TFUS Speed Figure on May 18th and his dismal effort last time, and he was a vet scratch in the interim, so we'll take it as a good sign that he is entered back in just 15 days.  Performance like that one two races back makes him close to a sure thing in this field.  #5 Artemus Paperboy was much best over a muddy track vs. $20k maiden claimers last time, and he is entered back at the right level for trainer off to a strong start here.
 
Selections:  3-9-5-1
 
Race 6:  All things considered, #11 Unbridled Sonya ran quite well first time out when trying wide run from off the pace on a day when speed was dominating the proceedings on the Saratoga main track.  Picks up Rosario for the switch to grass, and she has a strong Breeding Rating of 96 for turf sprints.  #5 Lismore debuts for a dangerous trainer, and her dam is a sister to Interactif, who won multiple graded stakes races on grass.  #10 Stormy Sky chased a fast pace and tired in main track debut, and she also has enough pedigree to handle a switch over to turf sprints (86 rating).  #1 Giant Crystal is a half to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner Gemologist but debuts on turf.   
 
Selections:  11-5-10-1
 
Race 7:  #8 Liam's Map made a promising debut when keeping after a fast pace throughout and coming away second-best to a promising runner in Three Alarm Fire.  Going to be tough in here if running as well, or perhaps even better, with that experience under his belt.  #3 Flat Jack has the experience, which is going to begin working against him soon, and has run fast enough to win a race like this one more than once.  More distance may not suit him based on lone route try at Delaware back in June vs. a field rated at just 81.  #2 Marble Falls and #7 Lucid are second-time starters who were behind Liam's Map first time out, but they both hail from barns that do better racing their horses into form.  
 
Selections:  8-3-7-2
 
Race 8:  #3 Spun Silky has run well throughout 2014 without winning, and that was never more true than at Laurel last time, when she did very well to finish as close as she did after almost going down on the far turn.  May be up against it in this field, which is lacking much in the way of pace, but she deserves another chance.  We have long felt that #4 Hillhouse High is at her best when able to rate back and make one run, as evidenced by her most recent race when closing gamely in stakes company.  Turn-back figures to allow her to rate and run, as she did in much-the-best score three starts back.  #7 Paddle Board blew away a next-out winner when switched over to try turf for the first time at Laurel, and she has the best early speed in this field.  May be this good.  #1 More Than Faith is a true wildcard in this race, shipping over from Australia for a top trainer, and she will have lasix for the first time on Friday. 
 
Selections:  3-4-7-1
 
Race 9:  Good spot to try a new face, and #1 La Reverie fits the bill while dropping down in class and switching to grass as a half-sister to a pair of turf winners.  #3 Chrissy Girl took a run up the inside and flattened late last time, and is now third back from a long layoff for a top barn.  Not much to separate (or recommend) the other experienced runners in the field, so we would only suggest avoiding the shorter prices.  
 
Selections:  1-3-4-11
 
blackandwhitecurvedlogo
 

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 26, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, September 26, 2014

Race 6, 2-year-old fillies, seven furlongs, turf, 3:25 p.m.

GIANT CRYSTAL (chestnut filly, Giant’s Causeway—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) is a half-sister to Gemologist, who won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at 2 before taking the Grade 1 Wood Memorial the following year; and Clear Destiny, who won a listed stakes at Mountaineer Racetrack. Eight of 10 starters out of their unraced dam have won, including two on the turf. Crystal Shard is a full-sister to Withallprobability, who won three graded stakes and was second in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Giant Crystal was the most expensive of 10 weanlings by Giant’s Causeway to sell at auction in 2012.

Owner: Live Oak Plantation

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Sales history: $450,000 Keeneland November weanling

 

LIGHTNING LUCY (dark bay or brown filly, Giant’s Causeway—Mary Goodnight, by Grindstone) is out of a mare who won two races on the dirt. Mary Goodnight is a half-sister to four-time Grade 1 winner Devil His Due and has produced four winners from as many starters, including one on the turf.

Owner: Stronach Stables

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, September 27, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, September 27, 2014

Race 1, All 2-year-olds, seven furlongs, dirt, 12:50 p.m.

SAVOY SAMPLE (dark bay or brown colt, Medaglia d’Oro—Crystal Current, by El Prado) is a half-brother to Mi Vida, who was third in a minor stakes at Evangeline Downs. Their dam won the Suncoast Oaks at Tampa Bay Downs and is a full-sister to Grade 1 Hopeful winner Majestic Warrior and a half-sister to Evolutionist, who on the turf won a stakes at the Fair Grounds and was Grade 3-placed. Savoy Sample’s second dam is Dream Supreme, who captured six graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Test and Grade 1 Ballerina.

Owner: Team Valor International & Southern Equine Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $875,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling

 

BOONE DOCKS (bay colt, Smart Strike—Belle of Perintown, by Dehere) is a half-brother to Strike It Rich, who won the Grade 3 Boiling Springs on the turf. Their dam won the listed Pocahontas at 2 and the Grade 2 Silverbulletday at 3 and has produced three winners from four starters.

Owner: Southern Equine Stable

Trainer: Eric Guillot

Jockey: Junior Alvrado

Sales history: $575,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

TRADESMAN (dark bay or brown colt, Street Sense—Mari’s Thunder, by Thunder Gulch) is out of an unraced half-sister to Congaree, who won two editions of the Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap and the Grade 1 Swaps, Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup, and Grade 1 Carter Handicap; and Sangaree, who won a minor stakes at Santa Anita and was second in five graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap. Mari’s Thunder has produced two winners from four starters.

 

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Paco Lopez

 

MIDHMAAR (gray/roan colt, Tapit—Take D’ Tour, by Tour d’Or) is out of a two-time winner of the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap. Take D’ Tour has produced one starter, who was winless in three races.

Owner: Shadwell Stable

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $600,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

Race 3, All 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 1:54 p.m.

 

ST. LOUIE (dark bay or brown colt, Arch—Seeking an Angel, by Seeking the Gold) is out of a stakes-placed half-sister to Hula Angel, a daughter of Woodman who won the Group 1 Irish 1,000 Guineas; and Schedule, a two-time stakes winner on the dirt at the Meadowlands. Both Seeking an Angel and Hula Angel are by sons of Mr. Prospector. Seeking an Angel has produced one previous starter, who won a single race on the turf in eight starts.

Owner: Richard Santulli

Trainer: Alan Goldberg

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

 

MOSS CODE (chestnut colt, Congrats—Fun Project, by Housebuster) is a half-brother to Fun Logic, who won the restricted Adoration Handicap on Del Mar’s synthetic surface; and Freesgood, who on the dirt captured stakes at Santa Anita and Fairplex and was second in the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby. Their dam has produced six winners (two turf winners) from seven starters and is winning half-sister to stakes winners Fleet Broad and Houston Fleet M D.

Owner: Mossarosa

Trainer: Nicholas Zito

Jockey: Israel Rodriguez

Sales history: $45,000 Keeneland January yearling, $190,000 Keeneland April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 2/5 seconds, video)

 

DISPERSION (dark bay or brown colt, Arch—Miss Lodi, by Mr. Greeley) is out of a sprinter who captured the Grade 3 Safely Kept and was third in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff Handicap. Miss Lodi has produced four winners (one dirt winner and two synthetic winners) from five starters.

Owner: Klaravich Stables & William H. Lawrence

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $150,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

CAPROCK KID (bay colt, Sky Mesa—Western Humor, by Gone West) is out of an unraced half-sister to Coronado’s Quest, a son of Forty Niner whose accomplishments included Grade 1 wins in the Wood Memorial and Haskell Invitational Handicap; Warning Glance, a Grade 3 winner on the turf; and Military Look, who took a pair of Maryland Million races on the dirt. Both Western Humor and Coronado’s Quest are by sons of Mr. Prospector. Western Humor has produced two turf winners from three starters.

Owner: Stuart S. Janney III

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

TimeformUS Analysis for September 25

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Belmont Park on Thursday September 25th

Race 1:  #4 Marcy is already fastest of these on her best dirt effort and can be expected to improve as she gets a big drop in class to go along with a positive trainer change (Rodriguez gets perfect 100 rating with runners making first start out of his barn).  Was a vet scratch when entered against several of these horses on September 6th, but she's tough to go against assuming all is well.  #6 Wisdom of Oz is the likeliest upsetter as she drops back down to the level of her last win, which came with the benefit of a fast pace out in front of her.  

 
Selections:  4-6-7-1
 
Race 2:   #7 Wine Burglar disappointed as a short price on the class drop last time, but she had run well enough to win this in each of her three prior starts on grass, and she is first off the claim for dangerous connections.  #3 Too Good to B True is an interesting new face in a race open to that kind of horse.  She's in good form right now, having posted a win and a pair of close runner-up finishes from her last four turf starts.  #6 Flirtatious Spring has just one win to go with her nine second and third-place finishes so far, which makes her an unappealing price in this race, but she's clearly fast enough to win, and her trainer excels with runners making their third start off the layoff (97 rating). 
 
Selections:  7-3-6-4
 
Race 3:  #7 Jcs American Dream came through with a career-best performance when last sent this one-mile distance here on June 4th, and she has since raced either on turf or around two turns in stakes company.  Repeat of that game runner-up performance four starts back makes her competitive and she may be an interesting price.  #4 Canal Six hasn't run quite as fast as some of her opponents to this point, but she's still lightly raced and may be set for her best as she makes her third start back from the layoff while dropping in class for a talented young trainer.  Maiden win came in lone start over this track and distance in a race that featured a contested pace for her to close into, and she has a pair of speeds lined up to her outside in this spot.  #5 Annie Walker is one of those speeds, and she is a dangerous one.  Came up just short of taking a field the full nine furlongs at Saratoga last time, but her one-turn mile here on June 19th was an impressive performance.  
 
Selections:  7-4-5-6
 
Race 4:  #4 Momma Giovanna raced wide after breaking very awkwardly in her turf debut, but she put in a run before tiring late.  Has the pedigree to handle a switch to dirt (82 Breeding Rating for dirt routes) as a half to Saturday Appeal, a solid dirt router around here over the past few years.  #5 Building Permit took money but was outrun by an impressive Hard To Stay Notgo on debut upstate.  Trainer gets big 98 rating with second-time starters, and this filly appears to be in a much softer MSW field this time (65 rating for this field, as compared to the 82 for the field she debuted in).  #3 Razia Sultana was also in that Hard To Stay Notgo race last time.  Half-sister to the talented Samraat may yet have more to give as she stretches out for the first time.
 
Selections:  4-5-3-8
 
Race 5:  #6 Grandpa's King took money but failed to fire when green in Saratoga debut.  Picks up Castellano for this and can be given another chance for trainer pulling perfect 100 ratings across several categories with 2yos in MCL races.  #3 Oh Poggibonsi is by the red-hot debut sire Tiz Wonderful, and his dam was a graded-stakes-placed dirt sprinter in her career.  #2 Special Invitation debuted in a strong field early in the Saratoga meet, and he'll drop in class for his second start (trainer gets strong 98 rating with second-time starters).  #4 Ghost Swagger debuts for the same trainer who saddles Special Invitation, and he has sent out several live first-time starters in maiden claiming company recently (100 rating from limited sample of 2yos debuting in MCL races).  
 
Selections:  6-3-2-4
 
Race 6:  #5 First Whippoorwill is first off the claim for a talented trainer, and she has races to get to that would give ML favorite #6 Flamingo Lane all she can handle in this spot.  Couldn't catch that rival on June 29th, but First Whippoorwill was just starting back off the layoff that day, and may be a tougher customer this time.  Flamingo Lane enters here as the best horse based on recent form, and one who projects to be up close in a race that is expected to favor runners on or near the lead.  She is just a neck shy of bringing a five-race winning streak into this spot, and she is going to be tough once again with a typical effort.  There isn't much between #1 Edie and #2 Indian Starlight based upon their meeting on August 28th, but the latter has more tactical speed to deploy, which projects to be to her advantage in this field, while the former will be returning quickly after short-priced defeat here seven days ago.
 
Selections:  5-6-2-1
 
Race 7:   #6 Spartiatis came with a good run to be clearly second-best behind the streaking Ziptronic last time, and gets some extra credit as the only horse to make a run from off the pace in that race.  93 TFUS Speed Figure earned for that effort suggests he can compete here.  #1 Isn'tlovejustgrand was outrun in fast-paced sprint two starts back, then was wired when Billy the Bull got loose on the lead here six days ago.  Is good enough to beat these horses, and he can fall into the right trip tracking the pace from the inside.  #7 Sandy'z Slew has been right there at the finish in all five career turf sprint starts, and continued his run of solid races when staying gamely in off-the-turf stakes try at Saratoga last time.  Has speed, and Pace Projector indicates this race favors horses with his running style.  #8 Bluegrass Springs found traffic when dropped in class for most recent start, but he prefers the slightly longer turf sprints they run around here, and he makes his first start for a dangerous trainer today (93 rating off the claim).  
 
Selections:  6-1-7-8
 
Race 8:  Tough race with no one to fully trust.  Several are exiting the 7th race from September 7th here, which was won by Raglin River, who paid $112.  #1 Wake Up in Malibu was not in that September 7th event, which is a positive to us,  and he may appreciate turning back to a sprint after trying longer in a pair of starts upstate.  Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead, and he has the speed to keep up close from his inside post.  #6 Ogermeister came back to turf for the first time since a trip to Royal Ascot, but could only chase a wire-to-wire winner that day.  May play out as the best speed in this race.  #11 Latigo Trail has clearly picked up his game since switching to turf this summer, and he also has enough speed to be a forward factor from the start. 
 
Selections:  1-6-11-10
 
Race 9:  #8 Manoffire brings a pair of layover TFUS Speed Figures with him as he drops in class for the first time off the trainer change to Lisa Lewis.  He is unlikely to find a better spot than this one.  #9 New Dude is perhaps the most interesting horse to give a look to as he makes his second career start while switching to turf off the claim.  He can improve on grass as a half to three-time turf winner Miz Owell, but he won't have to come forward by much against this field.  
 

Selections:  8-9-7-2 

 

blackandwhitecurvedlogo