Wednesday, October 22, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Thursday October 23
>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races
Race 1: #1 Trainingforsuccess, #2 Call Wil, and #6 Sonnyandpally all dropped in class recently and came through with improved performances. Of those, we'll give preference to Call Wil, who impressed in winning with something in hand and earned the top TFUS Speed Figure of that trio (92). Trainingforsuccess was a big price when third at this level last time, but he faced the toughest field (92 Race Rating vs. today's 87), and he clearly fits well here. If we're off the turf, #7 Piscesbymoonlight figures tough with his speed, but we'll also use #3 Mad Props. He was showing improved form earlier this year, and he lost all chance at the start off the layoff last time.
Race 2: #4 Jacapo chased off the pace while 3-4 wide throughout in his debut, which took place on a day when the rail was the place to be. Expect better with that experience behind him for a trainer who pulls perfect 100 ratings with second-time starters and with the MSW to MCL drop. #2 H Man is a first-time starter with a strong 93 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints, and he is a half-brother to 3 multiple winners, from a dam who won 5 times, including her debut over this track. #5 Chasing Bubbles had good speed and stayed stubbornly when dropped to this level for his second start and can factor once again.
Race 3: #7 Summer House flashed good speed in her debut before being overwhelmed by the impressive Jacaranda and allowed to fall back out of contention through the stretch. Has a solid 90 Breeding Rating for dirt routes, and stretching horses out on dirt is one of the things Mott does without peer. #6 Money'soncharlotte landed in a tough spot in her debut, and looked a bit green while chasing down on the rail. Can do better for a trainer who has a perfect 100 rating going sprint to route. #2 Fast Retailing brought $1 million as a yearling on pedigree (stakes winning dam is a sister to a pair of graded stakes winners, including Miss Shop, who won the Grade 1 Personal Ensign routing on dirt). Shug has shown more intention with his first-time starters over the past year or so, but this one will have to be close to tight to get the full mile right off the bat. Mott's other runner, #5 Profess, switches over from turf, but she now has two starts behind her, and she is a half to the talented dirt router Pulpit.
Race 4: On turf, we prefer the form of #11 Capitan Futuro to that of #12 Horvat Clan. Capitan Futuro will have to run that horse down, but he's getting the right class drop here, and the trainer change is a big one. For his part, Horvat Clan is an obvious danger to take them all the way after a gutsy try on a fast pace last time, and his job may be easier in this field. If we're off the turf, #3 Conspiracy becomes the horse to beat, but we could try to beat him with #4 Golden Itiz. He's run the fastest races, and we much prefer him as a main-track horse.
Race 5: #6 Coast of Sangria took the worst of it while wide throughout on a day when speed and the inside were dominant. Goes first off the claim for dangerous connections and had been in form that will make her very tough in here. #5 Kilnockagain stayed gamely to get back on the winning track off the claim for the always dangerous Jason Servis. Went off form for a while, but she once appeared to be a horse of some potential and is a threat if Servis has her going the right way again. #2 Inaflash had little trouble dispatching weaker with a perfect trip last time. She was off the layoff there and can factor here if taking another step forward.
Race 6: Some interesting firsters in this 2yo sprint for NY-bred fillies, but they have #7 My Super Nova to beat. She earned a 92 TFUS Speed Figure for her strong debut effort contesting a fast pace, and she tried stakes company over a muddy track last time. #12 Sonora (97 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints) is a half to three multiple winners and six-figure earners from a stakes-winning dam, and she debuts for a trainer who can have them ready first time out (92 rating with 2yo first-time starters). #8 First Service tired after chasing a fast pace first time out, but she was bet that day, and she gets a trainer change to Mike Hushion for this (99 rating first off trainer change).
Race 7: #11 Ironicus impressed with a pair of strong closing kicks on turf in Florida over the winter, and he may benefit most if the projected fast pace develops in front of him here as he starts back from a layoff (owns clear Late Pace rating edge with a 97). #3 Bigger Picture has to step up in class, but we were impressed with his late run, as well, and he did it over yielding ground last month. Wasn't facing runners of this caliber in that spot, but he appeared cut out to be a talented horse early on, and his new trainer can get one to come all the way around. On dirt, #2 Encryption is the clear horse to beat, but it will be interesting to see who stays in to face him, as there are several entered for turf who have back form on dirt to compete with him.
Race 8: #10 Cousin Michael has lost three straight at short prices since being listed as a vet scratch prior to a start at Monmouth back on June 6th, and he was once again listed as a vet scratch here on October 5th. Playing against him as the ML favorite, primarily with #4 This Hard Land and #8 Gridley Here. This Hard Land appears to have lost the early speed he once possessed, but he can still run races that would be too much for this group, and he drops in class for his second start back off a short break. Gridley Here has run the two best races of his life since being switched to dirt recently, and he still has upside, where the rest of these do not.
Race 9: If finale stays on turf, #10 Ainteasybeinggreen will drop in class for second start off the long layoff, and she has the kind of speed that will make her tough on a field like this one. #14 Maura's Pass will have to draw in, but she's been unlucky more than one in the trip department on turf, and is better than she looks on paper. On dirt, #12 Warm Heart figures tough as she drops down for her second start off a break of almost 2 years. Ran well in her debut way back, when forced to contest the pace while racing along a dead rail.