Wednesday, October 15, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Thursday October 16
>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races
Race 1: #1 Mills has seen his fortunes fall since running in a Grade 1 race at this time last year; brings a 9-race losing streak into this $50k claimer today. Isn't easy to take at a short price, but this would be a good spot for Rosario to use his speed from the inside. If he can't even win a race at this level, the best alternatives appear to be #8 Michael With Us, who is on a big class drop of his own but is lacking early speed in a race where that puts him up against it, or #9 Bigger Picture, who impressed with a big stretch run in his turf debut last time and has all of the upside.
Race 2: #9 Heading to Boca never picked up his feet over a sloppy, speed-favoring track in his return from a long layoff here 12 days ago. Back in short order for a hot trainer, and his two sprints over fast dirt to this point give him a chance in here. #5 Boss Daddy has raced very greenly in first two starts, but showed some interest in his debut after being shuffled out to last behind a class-dropping winner. Back to the level of the claim for young trainer who is doing excellent work so far. #7 Qui C'est Moi has run the fastest races and gets some needed class relief off the layoff.
Race 3: #3 Tiz May West drops down with a big TFUS Speed Figure edge on this field, and Pace Projector indicates that she has the best early speed in this matchup. Main threat to her figures to come from #1 Prove It All Night, who came back to dirt with a drop in class at Saratoga and proved to be a much-the-best winner in frontrunning fashion. #4 Boca Babe is lightly raced enough to be given a look, and her trainer excels going turf to dirt (98 rating) and with claimers down in class (100 rating).
Race 4: #1 Red Guard was outrun and last all the way to the top of the stretch before coming with a solid late run in promising debut. Adds lasix for second start. #6 Andalusite and #7 Grey Wizard both ran well when finishing noses apart behind frontrunning winner Dubai Sky here on September 30th. #11 St. Louie drifted in badly at the break of his debut before racing on well while in and among horses all the way. Eligible to improve rapidly. #12 Tale of Fancy switches immediately to turf with a big pedigree (100 Breeding Rating for turf routes) after getting in a prep on the main track. Will also add lasix for the first time.
Race 5: #7 Glenbrook put in a run after a green beginning in her debut, and then had little chance when giving chase to a drop-down, odds-on winner in her second start. Adds lasix for the first time today, and won't have to build much upon 65 TFUS Speed Figure earned last time to contend here. #4 Marriedtomichael drops down for the first time and switches from turf to dirt for third start off the layoff. Raced three-wide against a gold rail last time on dirt. #6 Flapper Girl has had little to offer so far in pair of well-backed races on both surfaces. Lone dirt start came vs. much better.
Race 6: #8 Shatak earned a slight new top TFUS Speed Figure of 93 in first start back from a long layoff last time, and did so despite being strongly rated in behind the 1-2 finishers for a long way. Has nice versatility and can be tough in here if stepping forward slightly second time back. #1 Cashmere Cat took advantage of Shatak's conceding the lead on August 23rd, and he has since come back to be defeated as the favorite going a bit longer. This may be a better distance for him, and he has speed at his disposal. #5 Knockher Off clipped heels and stumbled badly at the start in his return from a long layoff. Has run well in all three turf sprints to date, though he did have soft trips in each of his wins.
Race 7: #8 Royal Currier is tough to play against as he drops way down in class and projects to be on a clear early lead. Best race, or anything approaching that, makes him too much for these horses. #7 Back Forty has been compromised by moderate paces in last two, but prior to that he had races that make him a factor in this field, and he figures to be an overlaid price off the claim. Neither #2 Doc Almon or #6 Regulus could factor vs. better last time, but they figure tougher in this spot, and they both have the positional speed to get the right trip.
Race 8: #10 Bella Kateri is the one to beat off convincing win over this track and trip here last month with an 88 TFUS Speed Figure. Still owns the upside as the most lightly raced horse in the field. #7 Nonnie Connie returns quickly after chasing a fast pace here 7 days ago. Something similar to the effort two back would make her a contender here. #3 Official also wheels back quickly after a game finish behind a clear winner over shorter trip last week. Has run well in all three turf starts, but may need some pace to develop.
Race 9: #2 R Y Squadron debuts for a hot trainer, one who has won with 7 of the last 19 2yos he's debuted on grass. Pulls strong 95 Breeding Rating for turf sprints. #4 Dream On debuted in a loaded race on the main track, and will switch to turf for second start. Half-sister One Time Only has scored all three career wins over grass while posting top TFUS Speed Figure of 97. #1A Forma's Joy closed ground into a fast pace in turf debut before trying stakes company on the main track last time. Figures to appreciate getting back on grass, and she has an experience edge on most of these.