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TimeformUS Analysis for September 26

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Friday September 26th Racing at Belmont Park
 
Race 1:  Opener shapes up as a battle between dropdowns #1 Celebrated Talent and #7 Battled.  Battled is faster, having posted back-to-back TFUS Speed Figures of 100 and 103 in December and February, and he projects to be the controlling speed from his outside post.  He also has more questions to answer as he makes his first start back from a 174-day layoff with a three-week gap showing in his published works (as of this writing).  Celebrated Talent drops down for McLaughlin (97 rating going from ALW to CLM races) while making his third start back from a layoff (99 rating).  He hasn't run as fast as Battled, but he has the recency and is this field's lone entrant with a win over this 7-furlong distance.
 
Selections:  1-7-2-3
 
Race 2:  #7 Storm Pursuit has won all three career starts on dirt, and he did all the work while dueling the pace last time and was still able to hold off #4 Take Down Two at the end.  Projects to be the controlling speed in this race.  #3 Non Stop gets a pass for his last start, when racing wide and away from the pace over a Saratoga main track that was heavily slanted toward speed (denoted by the Race Rating box shaded in dark red).  Best race makes him very tough in here, if he can run it.  #5 Bemata took advantage of a wicked pace duel when rallying for 2nd last time.  New trainer gets perfect 100 rating with runners second off the claim, but he doesn't figure to have the same kind of set-up in this spot.
 
Selections:  7-3-5-1
 
Race 3:  #3 J to the Croft earned a 93 TFUS Speed Figure for his well-deserved win two starts back, and that is the top turf figure in the field.  Has the positional speed to avoid being compromised by dynamics, and may still have some upside.  #6 Request has reached something of a pivotal race in just his 5th career start.  He has run better than it may appear in pair of losses to begin his 3yo campaign, and he may be set to break through in his third start off the layoff.  Expected dynamics favor J to the Croft (Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead), but Request owns the top Late Pace Rating in the field.  
 
Selections:  3-6-5-4
 
Race 4:  #11 Taghleeb made promising turf debut last time when finishing up strongly after being held up in two different spots through the final turn.  Gets a positive rider change for this and can benefit from the projected fast pace, should it develop.  #1 Coordinate also made his turf debut in that race on August 31st, and he took a tough DQ when best at a huge price in that spot.  He's exposed now, and is coupled with a very well-bred #1A Melville (89 Breeding Rating for turf routes), so you'll be taking a much shorter price if you want to try him again.  #8 Veya shaped with a positive profile according to Timeform analysts in Europe, and he is eligible to come forward in his 3yo debut after running well in pair of starts once arriving stateside last year.  #2 Private Label switches to turf for 3yo debut and may improve quickly based on 89 Breeding Rating for turf routes.  
 
Selections:  11-1/1A-8-2
 
Race 5:  #3 Patty and Nooche has needed pace out in front of him in order to produce his best effort, and he may not have very much of it in this spot (Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead), but he's been facing tougher fields than this since dropped in class and is unlikely to find a better spot than this one.  #9 Perfect Disco needed 116 days between his strong effort with a 91 TFUS Speed Figure on May 18th and his dismal effort last time, and he was a vet scratch in the interim, so we'll take it as a good sign that he is entered back in just 15 days.  Performance like that one two races back makes him close to a sure thing in this field.  #5 Artemus Paperboy was much best over a muddy track vs. $20k maiden claimers last time, and he is entered back at the right level for trainer off to a strong start here.
 
Selections:  3-9-5-1
 
Race 6:  All things considered, #11 Unbridled Sonya ran quite well first time out when trying wide run from off the pace on a day when speed was dominating the proceedings on the Saratoga main track.  Picks up Rosario for the switch to grass, and she has a strong Breeding Rating of 96 for turf sprints.  #5 Lismore debuts for a dangerous trainer, and her dam is a sister to Interactif, who won multiple graded stakes races on grass.  #10 Stormy Sky chased a fast pace and tired in main track debut, and she also has enough pedigree to handle a switch over to turf sprints (86 rating).  #1 Giant Crystal is a half to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner Gemologist but debuts on turf.   
 
Selections:  11-5-10-1
 
Race 7:  #8 Liam's Map made a promising debut when keeping after a fast pace throughout and coming away second-best to a promising runner in Three Alarm Fire.  Going to be tough in here if running as well, or perhaps even better, with that experience under his belt.  #3 Flat Jack has the experience, which is going to begin working against him soon, and has run fast enough to win a race like this one more than once.  More distance may not suit him based on lone route try at Delaware back in June vs. a field rated at just 81.  #2 Marble Falls and #7 Lucid are second-time starters who were behind Liam's Map first time out, but they both hail from barns that do better racing their horses into form.  
 
Selections:  8-3-7-2
 
Race 8:  #3 Spun Silky has run well throughout 2014 without winning, and that was never more true than at Laurel last time, when she did very well to finish as close as she did after almost going down on the far turn.  May be up against it in this field, which is lacking much in the way of pace, but she deserves another chance.  We have long felt that #4 Hillhouse High is at her best when able to rate back and make one run, as evidenced by her most recent race when closing gamely in stakes company.  Turn-back figures to allow her to rate and run, as she did in much-the-best score three starts back.  #7 Paddle Board blew away a next-out winner when switched over to try turf for the first time at Laurel, and she has the best early speed in this field.  May be this good.  #1 More Than Faith is a true wildcard in this race, shipping over from Australia for a top trainer, and she will have lasix for the first time on Friday. 
 
Selections:  3-4-7-1
 
Race 9:  Good spot to try a new face, and #1 La Reverie fits the bill while dropping down in class and switching to grass as a half-sister to a pair of turf winners.  #3 Chrissy Girl took a run up the inside and flattened late last time, and is now third back from a long layoff for a top barn.  Not much to separate (or recommend) the other experienced runners in the field, so we would only suggest avoiding the shorter prices.  
 
Selections:  1-3-4-11
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for September 25

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Belmont Park on Thursday September 25th

Race 1:  #4 Marcy is already fastest of these on her best dirt effort and can be expected to improve as she gets a big drop in class to go along with a positive trainer change (Rodriguez gets perfect 100 rating with runners making first start out of his barn).  Was a vet scratch when entered against several of these horses on September 6th, but she's tough to go against assuming all is well.  #6 Wisdom of Oz is the likeliest upsetter as she drops back down to the level of her last win, which came with the benefit of a fast pace out in front of her.  

 
Selections:  4-6-7-1
 
Race 2:   #7 Wine Burglar disappointed as a short price on the class drop last time, but she had run well enough to win this in each of her three prior starts on grass, and she is first off the claim for dangerous connections.  #3 Too Good to B True is an interesting new face in a race open to that kind of horse.  She's in good form right now, having posted a win and a pair of close runner-up finishes from her last four turf starts.  #6 Flirtatious Spring has just one win to go with her nine second and third-place finishes so far, which makes her an unappealing price in this race, but she's clearly fast enough to win, and her trainer excels with runners making their third start off the layoff (97 rating). 
 
Selections:  7-3-6-4
 
Race 3:  #7 Jcs American Dream came through with a career-best performance when last sent this one-mile distance here on June 4th, and she has since raced either on turf or around two turns in stakes company.  Repeat of that game runner-up performance four starts back makes her competitive and she may be an interesting price.  #4 Canal Six hasn't run quite as fast as some of her opponents to this point, but she's still lightly raced and may be set for her best as she makes her third start back from the layoff while dropping in class for a talented young trainer.  Maiden win came in lone start over this track and distance in a race that featured a contested pace for her to close into, and she has a pair of speeds lined up to her outside in this spot.  #5 Annie Walker is one of those speeds, and she is a dangerous one.  Came up just short of taking a field the full nine furlongs at Saratoga last time, but her one-turn mile here on June 19th was an impressive performance.  
 
Selections:  7-4-5-6
 
Race 4:  #4 Momma Giovanna raced wide after breaking very awkwardly in her turf debut, but she put in a run before tiring late.  Has the pedigree to handle a switch to dirt (82 Breeding Rating for dirt routes) as a half to Saturday Appeal, a solid dirt router around here over the past few years.  #5 Building Permit took money but was outrun by an impressive Hard To Stay Notgo on debut upstate.  Trainer gets big 98 rating with second-time starters, and this filly appears to be in a much softer MSW field this time (65 rating for this field, as compared to the 82 for the field she debuted in).  #3 Razia Sultana was also in that Hard To Stay Notgo race last time.  Half-sister to the talented Samraat may yet have more to give as she stretches out for the first time.
 
Selections:  4-5-3-8
 
Race 5:  #6 Grandpa's King took money but failed to fire when green in Saratoga debut.  Picks up Castellano for this and can be given another chance for trainer pulling perfect 100 ratings across several categories with 2yos in MCL races.  #3 Oh Poggibonsi is by the red-hot debut sire Tiz Wonderful, and his dam was a graded-stakes-placed dirt sprinter in her career.  #2 Special Invitation debuted in a strong field early in the Saratoga meet, and he'll drop in class for his second start (trainer gets strong 98 rating with second-time starters).  #4 Ghost Swagger debuts for the same trainer who saddles Special Invitation, and he has sent out several live first-time starters in maiden claiming company recently (100 rating from limited sample of 2yos debuting in MCL races).  
 
Selections:  6-3-2-4
 
Race 6:  #5 First Whippoorwill is first off the claim for a talented trainer, and she has races to get to that would give ML favorite #6 Flamingo Lane all she can handle in this spot.  Couldn't catch that rival on June 29th, but First Whippoorwill was just starting back off the layoff that day, and may be a tougher customer this time.  Flamingo Lane enters here as the best horse based on recent form, and one who projects to be up close in a race that is expected to favor runners on or near the lead.  She is just a neck shy of bringing a five-race winning streak into this spot, and she is going to be tough once again with a typical effort.  There isn't much between #1 Edie and #2 Indian Starlight based upon their meeting on August 28th, but the latter has more tactical speed to deploy, which projects to be to her advantage in this field, while the former will be returning quickly after short-priced defeat here seven days ago.
 
Selections:  5-6-2-1
 
Race 7:   #6 Spartiatis came with a good run to be clearly second-best behind the streaking Ziptronic last time, and gets some extra credit as the only horse to make a run from off the pace in that race.  93 TFUS Speed Figure earned for that effort suggests he can compete here.  #1 Isn'tlovejustgrand was outrun in fast-paced sprint two starts back, then was wired when Billy the Bull got loose on the lead here six days ago.  Is good enough to beat these horses, and he can fall into the right trip tracking the pace from the inside.  #7 Sandy'z Slew has been right there at the finish in all five career turf sprint starts, and continued his run of solid races when staying gamely in off-the-turf stakes try at Saratoga last time.  Has speed, and Pace Projector indicates this race favors horses with his running style.  #8 Bluegrass Springs found traffic when dropped in class for most recent start, but he prefers the slightly longer turf sprints they run around here, and he makes his first start for a dangerous trainer today (93 rating off the claim).  
 
Selections:  6-1-7-8
 
Race 8:  Tough race with no one to fully trust.  Several are exiting the 7th race from September 7th here, which was won by Raglin River, who paid $112.  #1 Wake Up in Malibu was not in that September 7th event, which is a positive to us,  and he may appreciate turning back to a sprint after trying longer in a pair of starts upstate.  Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead, and he has the speed to keep up close from his inside post.  #6 Ogermeister came back to turf for the first time since a trip to Royal Ascot, but could only chase a wire-to-wire winner that day.  May play out as the best speed in this race.  #11 Latigo Trail has clearly picked up his game since switching to turf this summer, and he also has enough speed to be a forward factor from the start. 
 
Selections:  1-6-11-10
 
Race 9:  #8 Manoffire brings a pair of layover TFUS Speed Figures with him as he drops in class for the first time off the trainer change to Lisa Lewis.  He is unlikely to find a better spot than this one.  #9 New Dude is perhaps the most interesting horse to give a look to as he makes his second career start while switching to turf off the claim.  He can improve on grass as a half to three-time turf winner Miz Owell, but he won't have to come forward by much against this field.  
 

Selections:  8-9-7-2 

 

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TimeformUS Analysis for September 24

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Beautiful Belmont Park on Wednesday September 24
 
Race 1:  #7 Ave's Halo closed into a fast pace to best a couple of these at Saratoga when dropped to this level and has the same pacesetter once again here in the form of #3 Insolvent. Ave's Halo is a short price, but has consistently run the best races and is tough dropping back down.  Insolvent is the speed once again, and Pace Projector places her in early control once again, but stamina continues to be her Achilles heel.  #2 Fall Into Faith can get to a race that would be competitive here, and she was a winner over this course and distance when catching a fast pace last May.  Will be a price, and Insolvent ensures that there will be some pace. 
 
Selections:  7-3-2-5
 
Race 2:  #3 Sean and Matt appeared to be a young horse in need of some racing after hitting the track late last year, as he raced very greenly in both starts vs. some better competition.  Still earned TFUS Speed Figures of 74 and 73, which are in line with what most of his rivals have been producing, and he is the kind of horse who may have benefited greatly from the time off.  #5 Inca Saint was claimed back at the first opportunity by Chad Brown (100 rating off the claim) and is returned immediately to dirt.  Missed narrowly to the talented  Life in Shambles in main track debut.  #8 Flag On the Play gave way after a wide chase in lone start to date, which came sprinting vs. subsequent graded stakes performer C. Zee.  Returns as a new gelding with Lasix on for the first time (100 rating for this trainer) and a drop in class. 
 
Selections:  3-5-8-2
 
Race 3:  #1 Sweet Sweet Afleet is likely to be a short price after eye-catching debut in which she appeared to be on her way to victory before bolting in the stretch and losing all chance.  She's the horse to beat, assuming she is better behaved in start #2.  
 
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Would expect better from #6 Moonlight Fantasy this time, as well.  She also raced very greenly throughout her debut behind winning stablemate Girlaboutown, who would come right back to win again, and her trainer scores a perfect 100 rating with second-time starters.  #5 Warm Heart is off too long of a layoff to realistically expect too much, but she had good speed while contesting the pace on a dead rail when last seen 647 days ago.
 
Selections:  6-1-5-2
 
Race 4:  #9 Miss Lech should be set to step forward in second start back from a layoff after putting in a game stretch run to fall just short of 2nd last time.  Has run well without winning at 5.5 and 7 furlongs, so this six-furlong trip may suit her.  #2 Galroyale turned all the way back and bested several of these last time, but did so with a perfect run up the inside without traffic.  #3 Harp N Halo raced in traffic until the top of the stretch behind Galroyale in that spot, but tried gamely in the stretch and is eligible to improve quickly.  #1 Korite was also behind Galroyale on August 29th, but she was always off the pace after getting bumped at the start, and she raced greenly throughout for a trainer who gets a solid 75 rating with second-time starters.
 
Selections:  9-1-3-2
 
Race 5:  #11 As Well had a tough trip from start to finish at Saratoga last time, but has run several races that make her competitive here, and Pace Projector indicates that she may catch the right set-up today.  Despite remaining a maiden on this surface to date, #1 Milkyyourway has run some of the best turf races in the field, and she can also benefit from the expected pace scenario.  #7 Funky Munky Fever hasn't found much pace to work with lately, but she's proven to be an effective closer in the right circumstances, and done so vs. some solid competition. 
 
Selections:  11-1-7-3
 
Race 6:  #9 The Big Deluxe has faced tougher fields than this recently, and he cut a fast pace over this trip last time before weakening late.  Also made a solid pace two back in a race that collapsed at the end, but may have an easier time of it in this spot according to Pace Projector.  
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#6 Sir Bond had little chance to catch a loose-on-the-lead #1A Glickman when dropped down in class last time, but he was trying gamely in the stretch, and his new trainer is in the midst of a good run.  #5 Writingonthewall has continued on in good form for this trainer since being claimed back in May, winning a sprint vs. a field rated 103 at Saratoga (today's field is rated at 98), and then finishing a game 2nd going longer last time.  Turn-back a positive, and he has enough speed to avoid being badly compromised by moderate fractions.
 
Selections:  9-6-5-3
 
Race 7:  #2 Bio Pro tough to go against at likely short price as he drops out of stakes competition sporting layover TFUS Speed Figures of 111 and 114 for his last two starts.  Most recent start around this level on May 24th resulted in convincing win with a figure of 113.  Likely has the most to fear from #1A Strong Impact, who was compromised by chasing Za Approval on a slow pace last time.  He hasn't quite been up to his top level since being claimed by these connections, but he's a gamer and he handles this distance.  #3 Golden Rifle has been on a good run for Chad Brown and he's 2-for-2 over this distance and 3-for-3 at Belmont, but he will need to run faster if the good Bio Pro shows up.
 
Selections:  2-1A-3-6
 
Race 8:  #10 Gratitude cut a fast pace in turf debut going longer back in March, but she's improved under rating tactics since then and exits tough-trip chance at Saratoga when forced into wide run from off of an uncompetitive pace.  #8 Ballerina Belle was also up against it in that same race on July 18th upstate, and she came back to just miss in a later start up there.  Figures to appreciate having a little extra ground to work with.  #7 Zindaya got loose on the lead and easily took a field all the way when returned from a layoff last time, but she may play out as the main speed in this field as well, and she is dangerous in such a scenario. 
 
Selections:  10-8-7-5
 
Race 9:  #11 Hushhushmushmush emerged an unlucky loser from lone start at this level at Saratoga after getting caught up in a fast duel and paying the price late.  Drops back down as the horse to beat.  Horse he dueled into defeat in that July 20th attempt at this level, #10 Wake Up and Go, is also here, and he also had a tough trip in the start preceding that one when stuck rating wide behind a slow pace.  #12 Chasin Chama couldn't contend when stepped up in class last time, but he has run well both times at this level, and he never had a fair chance when held up in behind horses for a long way on August 11 at Saratoga. 
 
Selections:  11-10-12-6
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for September 21

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont on September 2

Race 1:  #3 Path to Power debuted going long on grass upstate, but may appreciate switching over (100 Breeding Rating for dirt overall), being a half to a graded stakes winner on dirt and out of a dam who won multiple graded stakes on the main track.  #8 Bella Fachi dropped to this level two back over one mile and stepped things up noticeably to just miss with a 69 TFUS Speed Figure.  Like the turn-back for her out of even longer try at Saratoga.   #2 It's Easy appears to have attained a level that makes her competitive with these horses.  
 
Selections:  3-8-2-1A
 
Race 2:  #4 Tizquick enters the Bongard as a maiden, but he's also the fastest horse in the race based on his debut when second-best to the promising Upstart with an 84 TFUS Speed Figure (next highest figure on dirt is a 75).  
 
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#3 Market Conduct will have to pick it up from a speed figure standpoint, but that's not out of the question for him after a professional maiden win when coming through on the inside to defeat a next-out winner.  #5 Bullheaded Boy has the look of a horse who may appreciate more distance, so getting out to seven furlongs may suit him, but he's another who will have to improve if Tizquick can run as well second time out.
 
Selections:  4-3-5-1
 
Race 3:  Pace Projector for this race doesn't indicate that they will be going fast up front, but there should be some racing going on with all of #3 Make a Fortune, #4 Sense of Peace and #1A Glickman up toward the front early on.  We'll hope that a contested scenario does develop, which would be to the benefit of #8 Deadicated Deal, who has come running late to win two of his last three.  A contested pace would also help the chances of #7 Reserved Quality, but he's had proper set- ups before and has failed to deliver at short prices.
 
Selections:  8-1A-7-4
 
Race 4:  #2 Hard to Stay Notgo impressed in debut win with a 90 TFUS Speed Figure, then got caught up in a very fast pace second time and paid the price late.  Gets first-time lasix for this.  
 
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#6 My Super Nova dropped an unlucky decision to a tripped-out #1 Temper Mint Patty after doing all the work contesting a fast pace with the favorite.  Faces pace pressure once again but that was a promising debut.  #7 Myfourchix was the main beneficiary of the fast pace that did in Hard to Stay Notgo last time, but she has run well both times and projects for a similar trip in this spot.
 
Selections:  2-6-7-5
 
Race 5:  Thought #4 Bolt From the Blue would benefit from the class drop and cut-back last time, but he landed in a paceless race and couldn't impact a loose-on-the-lead winner.  Gets one more chance in a race with more speed signed on.  #11 Jimmy Soul takes big class drop from MSW to MCL (80 trainer rating for Schettino with that move) and has the kind of speed that can help him avoid being compromised on the turn-back.  Faced much tougher in last two in the form of repeat winners Candir and All Included. #6 Badasmywifeletsmeb is an interesting new face who has never raced this cheaply on grass and picks up Castellano.  
 
Selections:  4-11-6-7
 
Race 6:   #1 Aesthetique raced wide from a tough post and was close to a pace that collapsed when cut all the way back to 5.5 furlongs last time.  Has run better than it may appear on several occasions and buried maidens over this track and trip last year.  #2  Letterfromamerica is a wildcard shipping in from Dubai and cutting back to the distance of her lone career win in Ireland.  Gets a full lasix and blinkers makeover for a dangerous trainer.  
 
Selections:  1-2-8-9
 
Race 7:  #7 Sierra Olivia acted very greenly in muddy track debut before eventually being taken wide and out of contention.  Eligible to come forward quickly from that experience for Pletcher, who gets perfect 100 ratings with second-time starters and with 2yo maidens off of this kind of layoff.  #5 Headmistress hit the gate at the start and got herself far back early behind the promising Hi Dollar Woman first time out, but she gathered momentum and was running at the end in an effort she can build upon.  #3 Co steadied early, then chased to no avail in turf sprint debut.  Has plenty of dirt in her pedigree, and gets a solid 87 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints.  #4 Jacaranda gets a 93 Breeding Rating as a half to Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Constitution and her trainer knows how to have a first-time starter ready.  #1 Summer House may need a start or two, but her dam won multiple stakes and is a half to the fleet graded stakes winning sprinter Custom for Carlos.  
 
Selections:  7-5-3-4
 
Race 8:  #6 Street Game couldn't impact the top NY-bred turf horses in training last time, but he holds a stronger hand at this level, and he projects for a nice trip tracking up close to longshot #8 Carson Bandit on the early lead.  #5 Lawyer Jim found his good form around this time last year, winning three of his last four starts of 2013.  Figures to benefit from the class drop for his third start back from the layoff.   #4 Majestic Raffy has had trouble finding the winner's circle, but he's run plenty of fast races in the past, and he lost position through the final turn last time and couldn't make up the lost ground late.
 
Selections:  6-5-4-1
 
Race 9:  #5 Jet Majesty has run well in all four career starts to date and may be set for best effort yet as she makes her third start back from the layoff and third start as a 3yo.  Has the speed to be involved throughout the running.  #8 Given Fire impressed when clearing to the lead vs. a weak field (76 rating) and blowing them out through the stretch over a shorter trip at Saratoga.  Similar effort makes her tough, but she has to stretch out a bit and this group is tougher (83 rating).  #9 Thatza Wrap looked good in first two starts on turf before failing to impact off the short break at Saratoga.  Can be given another chance at a price. 
 
Selections:  5-9-8-1
 
Race 10:  #6 Bigger Picture couldn't keep up early when cut back to a sprint off the long layoff, but he appeared to have plenty of potential as an early season 3yo, and his impressive maiden win over synthetic (90 TFUS Speed Figure) allows hope that he will handle turf.  New trainer does excellent work with new acquisitions.  Connections of #8 Wolf King have been looking to try him on turf from day one and will finally get the chance.  Gets a class drop to go with the surface switch, and picks up a top rider.  #2 Birchwood Road has failed to build upon solid maiden win on turf at the end of last year, but figures to be a better fit at this level.  #9 Toy Cannon can always find at least one better than himself in any given race, but he has been right there the last two times he raced down around this level and is likely to be around it again in this spot.  
 
Selections:  6-8-2-9
 
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