Thursday, October 16, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Friday October 17
>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races
Race 1: #6 Gabbole has some speed and gave game chase to a front-running winner in MSW debut before settling for a minor award. Drops down for second start and will be tough on this field if able to make the front. #1 Grandpa's King got bet but didn't have speed and raced greenly throughout Saratoga debut. Took some time to regroup for trainer who scores perfect 100 Trainer Rating with 2yo maiden claimers on dirt. #5 Havermeyer Street is a first-time starter with a solid 89 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints and goes for a trainer who does well with 2yos debuting in maiden claiming company (90 rating).
Race 2: #4 Brass Pear gets the right class drop for this. Caught up in a fast pace duel last time, he may have an easier time of it up front in here according to Pace Projector. #2 Brendan G also paid the price after contesting a solid pace in his last start. Wound up settling for his 8th runner-up finish from 15 career starts. New trainer doesn't claim much, but does a good job with new acquisitions. #5 Ice Wagon has run well in last three starts at this level without winning, but faced a tougher overall group last time (87 Race Rating, vs. today's 80).
Race 3: Someone in this field of nine entered for turf is going to step forward, and we'll hope that it's #9 On Tenterhooks, who switches to turf for his third start after chasing the freakish Daredevil in the mud last time. More Than Ready colt gets a strong 91 Breeding Rating for turf, and Pace Projector indicates that he may be loose on the early lead in this spot. #12 Night Prowler raced on gamely after a nice inside trip to be 3rd behind #3 Sleeping Giant in his debut. Well-bred and well-connected colt is eligible to step it up in second start.
Race 4: #8 Discreet Kaz gets a 91 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints (dam won 4 dirt sprints in her career and was stakes-placed multiple times while posting a TFUS Speed Figure top of 101) and starts for a trainer who can win with first-time starters (94 rating from a limited sample). Has found a likely spot if he can run a little. If not him, then we can give #5 Bad to the Roan one more chance back on dirt, as he was compromised by inside-speed-favoring tracks in two of his three career starts before the layoff.
Race 5: We'll see if #4 Annie Walker can carry her speed all the way this time, as Pace Projector once again places her in the driver's seat early. Stamina has been an issue to this point, though she may not have appreciated the muddy going last time. We'll play against her with #2 Canal Six, who goes for an excellent young trainer and who will appreciate pace to close into as she turns back to a better distance. We can also give the improving #9 Jcs American Dream another chance here after she encountered that same wet track when finishing ahead of Annie Walker last time.
Race 6: #2 Street Game is better than these horses with his good race, and he was compromised by a tactical error when defeated as the favorite last time. Pace Projector places him in a perfect trip stalking the early leader. #8 Went the Day Well showed promise as a turf horse at the beginning of his career, but didn't race over grass for almost three full years prior to his last start. Didn't run poorly at all that day when holding position all the way around after a front-running winner on a slow pace. Don't care for the race that #1 Analysis and #3 Majestic Raffy are exiting, but they have better races than that to get to, and Majestic Raffy had plenty of traffic trouble in that spot.
Race 7: #4 Wickapecko drops in class for third start back from a layoff, and she will appreciate this turn-back in distance as she has been at her best sprinting on grass. Plenty of speed signed on to this race, which may help her settle a little better after getting rank going longer in her fist two starts this year. #11 Double the Energy also drops in class, and she has the tactical ability to take up a nice tracking spot away from the speedy #1 Insolvent. She has consistently run the best races in this field and is clearly the one to beat. #2 Mighty Reward is a bigger price and will appreciate the class relief she gets today, and #3 Sunrise Kitty has run well enough over sprint distances several times in the past to be competitive here.
Race 8: #8 Madaket Millie's dirt debut back in July was a solid effort that earned her a 95 TFUS Speed Figure, and a repeat makes her tough in here. She has faced better horses since then but has not been competitive. If playing against her, we are most interested in #4 Whispering. She has also faced better in limited dirt tries, but earned a new top of 93 when returned to the main track last time, and she has improved her figures right along.
Race 9: #6 Throckmorton ran into severe traffic and emerged unlucky from Saratoga debut; then was kept wide all the way when wired as the favorite last time. One more chance, adding blinkers with a trainer change. #10 Idiosyncratic put in a long wide run all the way through the final turn in a roughly run race and carried on well through the stretch. Can do better with a clean trip. #11 Veya landed in a fast-paced race first time out as a 3yo, and he wound up down on the inside for much of the running before weakening late. Has solid 2yo form to build upon.