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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for September 11

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont on Thursday September 11th

Race 1:  #2 Noble Doss returned from a layoff at this level over this track back in June and buried a field with a TFUS Speed Figure of 92.  Drops back down after two starts vs. tougher upstate, and he has enough speed to be close in a race projected to favor the frontrunners.  #5 Magnificent Moon has come back better than ever off a long layoff as a 6yo, winning 3 of his 4 starts around one turn on dirt.  Has never run a figure fast enough to contend with the best race of a couple of these, but he's first off the claim for a very dangerous trainer.  #1 Most Happy Fella hasn't been at his best recently and drops in class once again, looking for the right level.  Has back races that would be plenty good enough.
Selections:  2-5-1-3
Race 2:  #8 Beauty Surprise stumbled at the start, then was bumped and carried out wide into the first turn against a tougher field last time.  Has more speed than that when away cleanly and can use it to positive effect in this field.  #3 Shaikha is clearly fast enough to win this, but she's been happy to settle for minor awards so far, and we don't mind trying to beat her once again.   #6 Reckless Move gave way to finish behind a couple of these last time, but she was just starting back from a layoff.  Can do better with that one behind her, and Pace Projector places her on the early lead.
Selections:  8-3-6-2
Race 3:  #2 Shore Runner has put up TFUS Speed Figures of 99 and 101 for his last two starts.  If he runs that well again, this field is unlikely to be able to cope, and he has enough speed to keep up with the pace. 
#4 Slamarama has the back races to compete with Shore Runner, and he has speed, but he has proven incapable of running a race like that recently.  Instead, we'll use a little of #7 Joking, who comes back to grass and restricted claiming company for his second start back off the layoff.  He's been a solid and consistent dirt sprinter throughout his career, but he has run well enough on turf in the past.
Selections:  2-7-4-6
Race 4: ML favorite #10 Spa City Treasure was compromised by a slow pace and couldn't catch wire-to-wire winner Eternal Bull at Saratoga, and he feels like the horse to beat, though we wonder about 7 furlongs for him.  As an alternative to him, we'll try #4 Bad to the Roan.  We've been wrong about him since his debut, when he was well-bet and unlucky to be racing against the grain of an intensely inside-speed-favoring track, but he's been given a little time to regroup, and he has a strong Breeding Rating of 89 for turf sprints.  
Selections:  4-10-8-11
Race 5:  #1 Frame projects for a clear early lead in a race favoring horses on or near the lead, and he is entered right back at the right level after posting a solid win on the drop. 
#6 Perfect Disco put up an 88 TFUS Speed Figure when dropped in class for his new trainer, and a figure like that will make him competitive with Frame.  Concern is that he hasn't been seen in the 116 days since that race, and he was listed as a vet scratch back on June 6th.  #2 Herd Mentality gets a pass for the recent turf try, but he was a no-excuse 2nd after getting loose on the lead at this level two back, and Frame is faster than he is early. 
Selections:  1-2-6-5
Race 6:  #4 Midnight Citra made a promising debut over this surface back in June before trying turf to no avail upstate.  78 TFUS Speed Figure she earned for that debut is tops in the field on dirt, and we like her chances switching back to this surface.  #9 Kinsley was outpaced early on in strong MSW sprint upstate, but she raced on through the stretch and was still going after the wire.  Eligible to improve rapidly for Pletcher, and is likely to bring more speed this time.  #1 Cover Up was away last and outrun early when no threat behind a pair of promising fillies in her debut, and she is also eligible to be better for the experience. 
Selections:  4-9-1-7
Race 7:  #6 Charlie's Picnic appeared to appreciate the cut-back to this distance two back as he circled the field and finished gamely to prevail.  Cutting back again and drops in class.  #1A Battled is a wildcard, having never run on turf, but he's the fastest horse in the race and is dropping in class off the trainer change.  #5 Lunar Tales dropped in class at Saratoga and was unable to impact after getting bumped at the break.  New trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with turf sprinters. 
Selections:  6-1A-5-4
Race 8:  #5 Surfing U S A and #6 Mosler returned from layoffs and finished last and next-to-last in a loaded-looking allowance race at Saratoga on August 16, but we thought we could make excuses for both of them.  Surfing U S A stumbled badly at the start and lost his best chance.
Mosler looked something less than fully cranked pre-race, and then was sent up to contest the pace before giving way in the stretch.  We're expected both to show more this time, and since we liked Mosler quite a bit as a 2yo, we'll give him preference.  #4 Cool Samurai is also interesting as he makes what is essentially his 3yo debut after showing much promise in his first two career starts, one of which came over this track and trip.
Selections:  6-4-5-8
Race 9:  #1 Maura's Pass was caught wide throughout turf debut on opening day of the Saratoga meet, and she was never put in position to run when defeated as the favorite in her return up there.  Can be given one more chance. #11 Bella Kateri is the clear horse to beat, and she had a troubled trip of her own last time when she may have been best.  #2 Manner of Speaking is eligible to improve as she makes her 3yo debut with a trainer change and lasix on for the first time.  
Selections:  1-11-2-9

TimeformUS Analysis for September 10

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the races at Belmont on Wednesday September 10th

Race 1:  Opener requires a wait for scratches as Jacobson has entered the pair of #1 Italian Rules and #1A Glickman, both with Cornelio Velasquez named, so only one will start.  Both have speed, and with Pace Projector favoring that running style either one will be tough in here.  Of the two we'd prefer Italian Rules, despite the class-drop, as we thought he was back in good form at Saratoga.  The others are all contenders with their best race.  Of those we are most interested in #4 Mulheb, who gets the right turn back in distance and has enough speed to stay close.

Selections:  1-4-2-5
Race 2:  Tough second race handicaps wide open and may come down to trips.  For purposes of the early multi-race wager's, both #3 Dividend and #6 Are We Not Men will be included.  They exit the same race from August 18 upstate, and both had trouble at different points.  #7 Mambo At the Gym is logical off the class drop, though it's one that he needs. #1 In Speight Ofitall is running out of chances for a low percentage barn, but he's at his best on grass and is a good fit in this field.  New face #2 Lemon Maker makes his turf debut, but he sports a solid Breeding Rating of 84 for turf routes and will be making his first start for a tag.
Selections:  1-6-3-7
Race 3:  #4 La Madrina has run well in all three career starts; she has the pedigree, the connections, and all of the upside in this short field.  Endured a long delay prior to her last race and then closed gamely once coming clear in the stretch.  #2 Evening Show is the main threat to her.  She is making her third start back from a layoff and has the fastest races to get back to.  #5 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid has appeared to tail off in her last three starts, but she's a threat if she can re-find her prior form for her sharp trainer. 
Selections:  4-2-5-1
Race 4:  Field of eight  fillies and mares entered to travel 1 1/16 miles over the Widener turf course, and half of them are exiting the finale from August 15 at Saratoga.  Despite none of them ever having a chance to catch the front-running winner that day, we were not so impressed with this quartet, although we could give the lightly raced #4 Barbara's Smile another chance. #2 Eddy's Time faced a much tougher group for the level last time (Race Rating of 81, as compared to today's 76) and Pace Projector places her on the early lead in this matchup.  
#7 Casey Roo exits that same highly-rated race, and she also faced tougher in her prior start upstate.  Her trainer has quietly has a very solid year.
Selections:  2-7-4-6
Race 5:  #5 Trail Walker was in over her head off the layoff at Saratoga, but she had run two good ones off the claim prior to that, including a 98 TFUS Speed Figure effort when second to subsequent graded-stakes performer Merry Meadow.  #2 Mama Zee has speed and the rail and is going to be tough in here if holding her good recent form off the claim. Jacobson has another entry here, and both #1 Bobby Jo and #1A Brigetta are in form right now. They're a formidable pair, but we're looking to go against them in here, especially Bobby Jo, who parlayed back-to-back perfect trips into wins at Saratoga.
Selections:  5-2-1A-4
Race 6:  #4 Boldlee raced very greenly throughout debut in a strong-looking field but still managed 3rd at a big price.  Can benefit from that experience and is unlikely to take too much money for low-profile connections. #5 One Eyed Ray exits that same strong race, and he faded readily after briefly contesting the pace. Eligible to turn it around quickly. Most interesting firster is #1 Tiz a Chance, who doesn't have much turf pedigree, but is by a strong debut sire and starts for a top trainer.
Selections:  4-5-1-9
Race 7:  Projected fast pace could be the undoing of #5 Groomedforvictory, but this is the right cut back in distance for him, and he is confidently raised in class off the claim by a sharp trainer (98 rating first off the claim).  He's won each of his last three starts over this trip.  #7 Big Town didn't handle the Saratoga slop and was finished early in effort that was too bad to be true.  Prior form in Kentucky makes him competitive, and he's first off the claim for Rudy (98 rating).  #8 Herbal Prospector has been in form over a long run of races, and he enters here directly off of a convincing win in the slop at this level upstate. 
Selections:  5-7-8-4
Race 8:  #2 Groupthink projects for a controlling position in a race that is expected to favor runners toward the front.  He's been a major disappointment to this point and has proven expensive to follow, but this may simply be the right spot.
Main threat to him figures to be #3 Here Comes Tommy, who is turning back to a better distance.  Each of his four starts prior to muddy, sealed track effort last time is faster than any race Groupthink has ever run, but he has character flaws of his own at 1-for-21 lifetime.  #4 Broadway Bay has the upside and has run well enough in both career starts to project enough improvement to be a threat in here.
Selections:  2-3-4-6
Race 9:  #8 My Sweet Ellierose was bumped out to the back of the field and then had to go wide while chasing a sharp winner over 4-furlongs in debut.  Trainer is pulling strong ratings with the MSW-to-MCL drop (96) and with second time starters (83).  #7 Captain Munnings was outpaced early and never factored in MSW debut,  Can do better for the experience and likely fits better with the class drop.  Of the firsters, #3 Take Issue shows up with a series of 5-furlong breezes for a top trainer, and #9 Giant Hearted Lee attracts Castellano and goes for a trainer who sent a pair of good-looking two-year-old winners for a tag at Saratoga, and had two more run well enough to hit the board, all of them at good prices.
Selections:  8-7-9-3 

TimeformUS Analysis for September 7

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for racing at Belmont on Sunday September 6th

>Go To PPs for the Races

Race 1: #2 Golden Rule is a new face to this group, and her typical dirt race out of town makes her competitive in this spot.  Drops in class for a good trainer, and her lone race in NY to this point resulted in a blowout maiden win.   #6 Allie Sweet is cut back in distance for new trainer who gets an 88 rating off the claim.  Has posted 2 wins and a second in last three races around one turn.  #1 Rettalfa has consistently been hampered by gate issues, and she was slow away once again when second best last time.  Put up a win when away with the field two starts back, but that was a slow race.

Selections:  2-6-1-5
Race 2:  #8 Stay in Front returns from long layoff here with a drop in class, but she is unlikely to find a much better spot than this one, and if she can run as well today as she did in her debut last summer, she is going to be very tough to beat.  #4 Lochan drops in for a tag for the first time while cutting back to a sprint, and her new trainer gets a strong 98 rating with turf sprinters and a perfect 100 with runners switching from a route to a sprint.
Selections:  8-4-5-6
Race 3:  #5 Katie's Garden arrives here looking for four in a row, and her last was her best yet, as she overpowered allowance foes off the layoff with a new top figure of 100.  Drew perfectly on the outside and projects to be in a perfect trip tracking up close in a race that favors runners up close to the pace.
#1 Tahoe Tigress bombed as the favorite vs. NY-breds at Saratoga, but she was pushing her limits over nine furlongs up there, and she is at her best around one turn on this track.  #4 Toasting is an in-and-outer, but she is capable of a big effort when in the mood, and she also appreciates the elongated one-turn races around here.  
Selections:  5-1-4-3
Race 4:  Turf sprint carrying a $100k purse is set to go with a short field, and there are plenty of question marks.  #4 Za Approval is the ML favorite, and his best race would be plenty good enough should he run it, but he's appeared to be off form so far this year.  If he bounces back, he wins,  but we can't trust him.  Pace Projector indicates that the frontrunners may have the advantage, but we don't want #6 Joe Tess, and would be surprised if #2 Fredericksburg and/or #1A Strong Impact allowed him to get too comfortable early.  For all of that, we'll hope at least a fair pace develops and take a shot with #7 West Hills Giant.  He handles turf as well as dirt, and he has run very well while against paces that held together in his last two starts on the main track.
Selections:  7-4-2-1A
Race 5:  #3 Clark Kent is the horse to beat off of his debut, in which he was second best to Embellishing Bob with an 88 TFUS Speed Figure.  We didn't think he did that much running in there and have to wonder where he's been for the last 162 days.  To us the most interesting new face is #7 Lord Cashel.  He starts for a trainer who has been making all the right moves all summer long, and pulls a strong 88 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints.  
Selections:  7-3-2-1
Race 6:  #7 Eskenformoney was bumped and squeezed back early and then had little chance to kick on with an impressive debut winner when stretched out last time.  Still finished well in there to clearly best the rest, and is the horse to beat in this spot.  
Main threat may come from one of the first-time starters, and the most likely candidates are #2 Miss Chatelaine and #9 Breach of Duty.  Miss Chatelaine has an 86 Breeding Rating for turf routes, and debuts for Clement (100 Trainer Rating with first-time starters in turf routes).  Breach of Duty has an 81 Breeding Rating for turf routes, and debuts for Chad Brown (100 Trainer Rating with first-time starters in turf routes).  
Selections:  7-9-2-8
Race 7:  #2 Leroy Jr. returned running from the layoff and dropped a close decision while hanging up a 100 TFUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that one makes him very tough to beat, and Pace Projector indicates that he holds all the cards early.  #9 Sunlover broke his maiden in first turf sprint attempt back at the end of his 2yo season, and he endured a tough trip when returned from the layoff over this track/trip last summer.  Spent the rest of the year going longer, but this may be his best game.  #3 Archer Hill has proven a handful for his riders, but he sprinted effectively over this track during the spring/summer meet and figures to benefit from this cut-back in distance.  
Selections:  2-9-3-4
Race 8:  #1 Birkenhead appeared to be getting a prep run in during sprint debut upstate as she was rated back under a strong hold early and asked to run a little in the stretch.  Faces field full of first-time starters and may be able to use her experience to her advantage.  #8 Profess has also had a start, and she was out-paced right from the start while sprinting over a sloppy track at Monmouth.  Has the pedigree to handle the surface switch (87 Breeding Rating) and trainer tends to give his 2yos a race.  #3 Fila Primera has the pedigree (91 rating) and debuts for Chad Brown, who was, as usual, very live with first-time starters on turf at Saratoga.  Be interesting to see if he can keep it going down here.
Selections:  1-8-3-2
Race 9:  #1 Crafty Dreamer ran a strong race when last seen over this track back in July.  He was part of a strong pace that day in a race that ultimately fell to closers and he projects to encounter a different scenario today.  #6 Waco took a lot of money and then ran a remarkable race at Saratoga on August 16.  He earned a 101 TFUS Speed Figure for that effort, and he earned it while contesting a fast pace the entire way before succumbing late to a perfect-trip closer.  Don't know if he can run that race again, but he's the horse to beat if he does.  
Selections:  1-6-5-2
Race 10:  #3 Loon River and #10 Bad Girl Phase are the only runners with experience, and they exit the same race from August 11 upstate.  Loon River came away a narrow loser that day, but we aren't sure we want anyone out of that race, which leaves us to guess with first-time starters.  #2 Courageisamajority and #11 Detail are the well-bred, well-connected, logical, ones, but we'll also include #8 Madison Blues, who is a sister to a pair of turf winners and debuts for a trainer who knows how to win with a firster.
Selections:  8-11-2-5

TimeformUS Analysis for September 6

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Saturday's Card at Belmont Park
Race 1:  #4 Island Candy made a fast pace and tired when back on dirt two back, then was more comfortable  tracking from the outside in sloppy off-the-turfer over 7 furlongs last time.  Drops in for $20k and can use her speed to her advantage in this spot.  #7 South Sound is back up in class after burying weaker with a minimum of fuss at Saratoga, and has run plenty of races that make her a contender in here.  #2 My Place is the ML favorite as she drops down to the level of the claim two starts back, but she's been only 2nd best in each of her last two starts and holds no figure edge on her main competition. 
Selections:  4-7-2-6
Race 2:  #7 Hi Speed Chase makes belated 3yo debut after being entered and scratched twice at Saratoga.  Has a lot of speed when he's right and may take them a long way.  #2 A Touch of Poetry caught a muddy sealed track and a speedy fellow MSW dropdown when in for the price for the first time upstate.  Has kept better company and has enough speed to secure a spot with the pace on the inside.  #6 Americas Guest chased a fast pace over a wet track and tired in the stretch of his debut.  Trainer gets a 95 rating with second-time starters and a perfect 100 with older maiden claimers on dirt.
Selections:  7-2-6-9
Race 3:  #6 The Big Deluxe cut a solid pace and faded in a race that fell apart late last time, but he's drawn favorably on the outside here in a race that Pace Projector indicates will suit his running style.  104 TFUS Speed Figure earned for game try going a bit longer two back makes him tough.
Rock-solid veteran #2 Ground Force sat out Saratoga after going back-to-back in the spring, and put up a 104 of his own when closing into a perfect pace setup and rolling clear when last seen.  #1 Station Chief is dangerous in here with his newfound running style, especially if The Big Deluxe gets hooked up on the pace early, but he'll need to improve, and last time was the time to have him.
Selections:  6-2-5-1
Race 4:  #2 Karakorum Legend went to the lead and was outfinished through the stretch when returned from a long layoff upstate.  8yo may have needed that one to shake off some rust, and he likes this distance.  #3 Emkanaat gets class relief here after failing to impact in pair of starts vs. better on turf.  Entry of #1 Kanturk Kid and #1A Precious Metal both have races that make them competitive.  We would prefer the latter were he to start on his own, as he has been effective over a variety of distances and tends to outrun his odds. 
Selections:  2-3-1A-10
Race 5:  #6 Candir came clear in the stretch and settled things quickly when making turf debut off the trainer change to Chad Brown upstate.  Takes the next logical step, and Brown gets strong 97 rating with last-out maiden winners coming right back.  #2 Trecastle also impressed when closing down a talented-if-camera-shy Decisive Edge to break his maiden last time.  Trainer is coming off a strong meet upstate.  #5 Dobra Historia is an interesting wildcard for Mott as he makes his 3yo debut on grass.  Made an impression when breaking his maiden over Keeneland's synthetic surface, and tried a couple of tough spots on dirt after that.
Selections:  6-2-5-7
Race 6:  #4 Ice Wagon took the worst of it while chasing wide off a slow pace set by ML favorite #7 Brendan G over this track on June 29th, and since then has run in the slop and on grass.  
#2 Solly's Mischief has been compromised by slow paces most of the summer, and may be facing a similar scenario here, according to Pace Projector.  
Selections:  4-7-2-3
Race 7:  All-turf late Pick 4 starts with loaded-looking field of maidens.  Both #3 Royal Squeeze and #8 King of New York were wired by Pletcher firster Designed for War upstate, and while King of New York ran the better race that day, he also got the better trip.  Royal Squeeze appeared to be in need of that start and may come forward quickly.  Both #4 Vision Perfect and #7 Lucky Leroy Brown also ran well enough in their respective debuts to ensure that the first-time starters will have to be able to run a little, but there are a few in here who look interesting. 
Selections:  3-8-7-4
Race 8:  #6 Star Channel comes here directly off solid effort over 9 furlongs at Saratoga, and getting out to his favorite distance of 1 1/4 miles figures to only help.  He's going to be tough with his good race, which he runs without fail over this trip.  The only horse we'd be looking against him with is #4 Artic North, who appeared to get back to one of his good ones off the claim after disappointing since his arrival in NY.  #2 Red Vine can win this, but he's been a disappointment at short prices and went down without an excuse last time.
Selections:  4-6-2-5
Race 9:  Pace Projector paints an interesting picture of this 1 1/2 mile route for $100k, as all of #2 Slim Shadey, #3 Elnaawi and #6 Red Rifle are expected to be up on the pace.  Assuming that is the case, it may leave things to be decided between #1 Reflecting and #4 Legendary.  Of those two, we'll take Reflecting, who has displayed an affinity for distance in the past, and who may have run better than it looks in finishing last when cut back in distance upstate.  
Selections:  1-4-2-6
Race 10: No one to trust in $40k maiden claimer for NY-bred fillies.  We'll look to get alive to #3 Chrissy Girl, #5 Fire Ship and #8 Jacey's Revenge.  Chrissy Girl was a bit headstrong but came up empty in first start back from long layoff at Saratoga, and can do better with that one under her belt.  Fire Ship had excuses both 2 and 3 starts back and could only chase a front-running winner last time.  Isn't likely to find a better opportunity.  Jacey's Revenge is a first-time starter with enough pedigree and a good trainer, so we'll include her somewhere in our play.
Selections:  5-3-8-9