Friday, October 10, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Saturday October 11th
>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races
Race 1: #2 Hot on Ice contested the pace all the way before tiring in the stretch when outfinished by a couple of these last time. She can turn the tables this time in a race where she may play out as the main speed. #3 It's Easy may appreciate getting back on a fast track (assuming those are the conditions) for her second start back from the layoff, but she has already lost six times as the favorite and is likely to be taking money once again. #7 Peach Lake is likely to get at least a piece, but she's not the kind of horse we want on top. If nothing else, #4 Lady Seeker is better going short than long, and this will be her first dirt sprint try since her debut back in April, when she was stuck very wide chasing an even-money favorite on the lead. To us, she is the right kind of outsider to try in a race like this one.
Race 2: #3 Raging Daoust hasn't been seen in top form so far this year, but he hasn't exactly had the fairest of chances. We can easily forgive the graded stakes tries at Monmouth because he was way against an inside-speed-favoring track at Saratoga, and we can't hold the turf race against him, either. He's at his best on dirt between 6 and 8 furlongs, and his last win came while against the bias on this track last September.
Pace Projector gives the advantage to the runners with speed, which may be enough to get #1 Bowman's Beast back on track, but we wouldn't want a short price on him. #2 Non Stop was with the track in convincing win last time, and he's a big player right back, though he has always been a difficult horse to handle, so new connections may have their hands full with him.
Race 3: It would be difficult for the connections of #3 Okey Dokey Smokey to find a much better spot than this one for a first start against winners, as his rivals have already been exposed over and over. Has speed in the right spot and was game in victory at Saratoga. #1 Master Yank is the logical alternative, though he doesn't possess the upside of his younger rival.
Race 4: #8 War Correspondent has the pedigree (full brother Declaration of War is a Group 1 miler in Europe, and was last seen just missing in the Breeders' Cup Classic in November) and the connections, and he was impressive in blowing off challengers in stateside debut last month. Takes next logical step on the way to some expected stakes engagements. #9 Abtaal looked strong circling the field in his North American debut back in January, and he was against the flow of the Grade 3 Canadian Turf when last seen 231 days ago. His trainer does very well with layoffs of this duration (perfect 100 rating), and he is a major threat if ready to fire right away. Both #1 Tetradrachm and #6 Sinatra are OK, but they may find the top two a little too tough, and we would prefer to stay away from them at any kind of short price. #3 Bombaguia is a better alternative, but he has had trouble making it to the races.
New face #3 Queen's Prize was viewed as a prospect when winning first time out last year, and she was headstrong early in her return when asked to travel 1 7/16 miles. Hasn't landed in the toughest allowance race carded around here. Along those lines, #1 Costenia was offered up by Pletcher at Saratoga, and he may have gotten away with one as she impressed that day, and came right back to win again as much the best.
#7 Prayed For parlayed a perfect trip into a debut win at Saratoga, and she had little chance in stakes company last time. Still lightly raced enough to stick with. #9 Fade to Black has improved on turf and can be a factor in this spot after facing a tougher overall group last time.
Race 6: Several interesting first-time starters in this field, but they will have to be runners if we get the same #9 Ready for Rye that we saw upstate. Forced to chase a subsequent Grade 1 winner while against an inside-speed-favoring track, he likely ran even better than the 90 TFUS Speed Figure would indicate. #3 Kick Off can be given a chance to do better as he adds lasix for start #2. Was outside early while outpaced in debut, but he spent plenty of time along the rail in there, and that was the place to be on August 30th. #6 Mawthooq is a full brother to Grade 3 winner Mahcen, who was an impressive debut winner a few years ago at Fair Grounds. #2 March is a half-brother to the fast (and hard to handle) dirt sprinter Eightyfiveinafifty. #8 Unbridled Hero is the first foal from a dam who is a half-sister to the Grade 1 winner Funny Moon, and his trainer sent out some live first-time starters at Saratoga this summer.
Race 7: Strong MSW for fillies over one mile on turf kicks off the late Pick 4. #9 Marie Antoinette deserves another chance after failing to impact from last in her 2014 debut. Ran well enough in all three starts last year to stick with her for a while. Entry of #1 Queen's Parade and #1A Court Appeal meets in the middle, with the former cutting all the way back and the latter stretching out for her second start. We have found things to like about both of them but would prefer to play one, or the other, on her own. #2 Trophee was taken back to last and rallied gamely through the stretch in her stateside debut. #10 Colorful is logical, having run well in each of her two starts, though she did come away second-best after a perfect trip last time.
Race 8: The Grade 3 Knickerbocker goes through defending champ #3 Za Approval, but he hasn't been seen in top form this year, and we will try to beat him. #6 Legendary has improved from start to start throughout the year and may be ready for a race like this.
#9 Mshawish didn't draw well and may be pushing it a bit over this distance, but he has scary overseas form and has had tough trips in each of his first two starts for Pletcher. #7 Up With the Birds is still eligible to step it up as a 4yo, and #1 Plainview has dangerous speed from a perfect post.
Race 9: Pace Projector for this race indicates that a fast pace is on tap, which may compromise some of the shorter prices on the ML. One of the beneficiaries of a contested pace could be #11 Birchwood Road, who ran quite well in defeat last time and gets a major rider change. #7 MarchReward goes first off the claim for Mike Maker (97 rating), who has been particularly effective off the claim on grass. #10 Wind of Bosphorus prefers to race up close, but he has proven tractable in the past and has run some of the best races in the field.
Race 10: Solid three-pronged entry is led by #1 Jimmy Fillpot, who figures tough in this field and drops in class for the first time. Cut-back in distance is the only concern. #5 Summation Time is also a cut-back, and he drops in class as well. Didn't get a great trip or ride last time after breaking alertly. For alternatives, #11 Hard Fast Cash raced in close range to a fast pace and was overwhelmed by closers in lone turf start to date, and that had the appearance of an above average field for the level. #9 Bolt From the Blue has sprinted on turf only once, but he had little chance that day in a race wired on a slow pace.