Saturday, October 04, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis of the Races at Sublime Belmont Park on Sunday October 4
Race 1: #1 Etiquette is the horse to beat off of her runner-up finish behind Feathered at Saratoga, but that track was favoring the inside and she just rode the rail behind the winner all the way. As an alternative to her, we'll try #5 Theophilia, who also exits that August 31 race behind Feathered. She was on the outside all the way that day, and Mott gets better performances out of his second-time starters (92 trainer rating with 2yo maidens off of this kind of layoff).
Race 2: #3 Mr Maybe came with a good run to win turf debut after a long layoff, and he came back to give game chase to an in-form winner at Laurel last time. Has displayed a solid finishing kick in all three starts this year, and Pace Projector indicates that he will have a fast pace to close into. #7 March Reward is first off the claim for Mike Maker (97 rating) and will put blinkers on (100 rating). Has speed, but has won from a stalking position in the past. #5 Are We Not Men was given a heads-up ride last time to take what was available to him in wiring a field of maidens off the claim. Has proven capable of closing effectively in the past, as well. If we're off the turf, #4 Classic Sense figures to be a short price, and will be tough to go against.
Race 3: #1 For the Luv of Lil was in too tough over a distance too far last time, but he was a good winner with a 95 TFUS Speed Figure two starts back, and he handles a wet track well, should those conditions prevail. #2 Cousin Michael may be the horse to beat in current form, and he has the tractable speed to pull the right trip. #4 Groomedforvictory broke through the gate prior to the start last time, and then failed to run his race first time out for dangerous connections. Can do better this time as he drops back down, and his best race will be too much for these.
Race 4: Grade 2 Futurity for 2yos pulled only five, but there are a couple in here with much upside. #2 Blofeld wasn't the most professional Pletcher-trained first-time starter we've witnessed, but he flashed plenty of raw talent when finally straightening out enough to run down a fast rival at Saratoga. 98 TFUS Speed Figure for that effort tops the field. #5 Hebbronville has been very impressive in pair of wins out of town, and he drew perfectly on the outside. #1 Cinco Charlie has the seasoning that the others lack, but he has the look of an early 2yo and always figured to be vulnerable to the later-developing members of the class.
Race 5: Seems unlikely that we'll be on the turf, but if we are, #2 Queen's Prize was well thought of in Europe to begin her career, and she figures tough with lasix on for Clement. On dirt we will lean to #11 Snowbell. Always promising, she stepped up her game to break her maiden at Saratoga with a 94 TFUS Speed Figure, and she had plenty of trouble finding a clear lane when defeated last time. #7 Pretty Syrie impressed when closing gamely to win dirt debut with an 87 speed figure. Has run well enough on grass recently, but we can stick with her if we're off, and she stays in. #4 Madaket Millie was blown away by House Rules last time, but her dirt debut prior to that makes her a major contender.
Race 6: Looks like a good spot for #2 Pecorino, who has some turf in his pedigree (dam is a sister to Grade 2 turf winner Big Booster), and has run the fastest dirt races in the field. Handled off tracks just fine in last two starts, and he looks like the main speed if we're off the grass. #11 Ice Wagon may need to step it up if Pecorino runs his best race, but he's run well in each of his last two starts and will appreciate cutting back in distance for this. We would be against #6 Saint Finian on grass, but he would be in receipt of some major class relief on dirt should he stay in.
Race 7: #4 Belle de Lawers didn't handle the step-up into stakes company after her winning debut overseas, but she has landed in the right kind of field should we remain on turf. On dirt, we'll guess with #2 Satisfaction. She has been heading the wrong way on grass but pulls a perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt as her dam is a full-sister to Heavenly Prize, so perhaps she will pick up her game a little on the main track. #1 High Heel Kitten ran her best race to date over a yielding course here, so we could give her a chance to rebound on grass. She also gets a perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt and is a full-sister to Csaba, who is a multiple graded stakes winner on the main track.
Race 8: #4 Savvy Star made an impressive debut to overcome big trouble at the start and a wide trip to gain a share of the win. Has a big pedigree and Mott does very well coming right back with last-out maiden winners (99 rating). #9 Princess Violet is the horse to beat as she drops out of a no-chance trip against an inside-speed track in the Grade 2 Prioress. #5 Bella Bianca impressed when blowing away maidens at Penn National with an 85 TFUS Speed Figure, and she did it over a wet track.
Race 9: Enough pace signed on to give #7 Image of Noon another chance, if we're on grass. She has come back in good form as a 4yo. On dirt, we'll hope that #1 Henry's Gal stays in. She has run some of the fastest races in the field while winning four of six on the main track, and she's the inside speed. #5 Run a Dubb Dubb was in career-best form when last seen earlier this year, and she will be a factor if running her race right off the layoff for a dangerous trainer.
Race 10: #1 Darling Sky impressed in debut despite racing greenly, and she had little chance when left to chase Condo Commando in the slop in the Grade 1 Spinaway. Gets another chance from us. #3 Paris Bikini wasn't the most impressive debut winner we've ever seen from this barn (71 TFUS Speed Figure), but she did what she had to do and is bred to improve with racing. #8 Save Rock and Roll may have to improve to win this, but Pace Projector indicates that there will be a fast pace in this race, and she has closed ground in both starts.
Race 11: #9 Call Wil is entered for turf but was an open-lengths winner in his last dirt start, and he will be first-time lasix on dirt in his second start for an excellent trainer. #7 Cosmic Coincidence may be the horse to beat if we're on the main track, and the cut-back to a mile figures to be a better fit for him, but #1 Distorted Dream interests us more. He never wins, which is a major concern, but he has run all of the fastest races on dirt, and he could be the main speed in the field if he stays in. #4 With Expression is a guess on the main track, but his dam is a half to the multiple stakes winning dirt sprinter Kashatreya.