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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for October 10

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #7 Box Office won first off the claim for current connections, and has since settled for second-best in four of his six starts.  Cuts back in distance and drops in class for this after racing outside all the way against an inside-speed-favoring track at Saratoga, and he has the speed to be in the game from the start.  #1 M J Plus also drops in class, and he has been compromised in each of his last two starts (behind a slow pace last time; chased outside on an inside-speed-favoring track two back).  #2 Apex is competitive with his best race, and he has enough speed to keep up early. 
Selections:  7-1-2-4
Race 2:  #1 Go Olivia Go drops off the claim, but that's not always a bad sign with these connections, and we like her current form best of these.  Was rated back early and stayed off the rail on a day when inside speed was dominant, and her prior two races make her tough in here.  #5 Discreet Force would be a major factor in here if up to her best, but that has to be a big question mark for her after another layoff, and she was a vet scratch on September 18.  #3 Wild Kay is projected to be the clear speed in a race favoring runners on or near the lead, and she likes to win races, but she had the best of it early last time and was no match at crunch time.  Re-claimed by connections who have done well with her in the past.
Selections:  1-3-5-2
Race 3:  Realize that #1 Grandpa Len is tough to take on top at 1-for-23 and counting, but he is clearly fast enough to win and may be overlaid on the board due to his new connections.  Ran a better race (in our opinion) than likely favorite #6 Goodnewsisnonews when they met at Saratoga on opening day.  Goodnewsisnonews drops back down to the level of the claim three starts back and switches from turf to dirt after failing to impact in his two starts for this barn.  Obviously a good fit in this race.  #5 Alcolite is third off the layoff and has shown improved speed since returning.  Class drop figures to help his chances.  #7 Cosmic Coincidence gets a slightly shorter distance to work with here, which may help his cause, and he has enough speed to be a factor from start to finish in this spot.
Selections:  1-6-5-7
Race 4:  Tough 4th race for 2yo maidens on the grass and sporting little in the way of competitive form.  #7 Hail Cornell and #11 Birkenhead are logical as the two ML favorites, but neither has done so much running that we will happily take short prices on them.  Instead we'll try #5 Matty's Wondergirl, who has some turf in her pedigree (76 Breeding Rating for turf routes; dam won on the grass) and put in a run through the stretch in her main-track debut.  #8 Atrous apparently didn't care for the sloppy track and trailed throughout her debut, but she's eligible to improve quickly on turf (84 Breeding Rating; dam was a stakes winner on grass).  #10 Kibble sat a perfect trip when switched to turf last time but delivered no kick in the stretch.  That was likely a better field than this one, so we'll give her the benefit of the doubt.  
Selections:  5-8-10-7
Race 5:  #2 What the Frost got a short break after being claimed for $40k at Saratoga, so not thrilled to see her dropped in for $20k so quickly, but she took the worst of it when forced to chase 4-to-5-wide last time, and she is a two-time winner over this 7-furlong distance.  #6 E Z Passer is clearly the one to beat as she makes her first start off the claim while looking for her 5th straight win.  She also handles this distance well, and we have no argument with anyone sticking with her.  #9 Matching Skies gave E Z Passer a race last time, and did so despite having to go wide as E Z Passer slipped through toward the inside.  Wonder about the added distance for her, but she's value at her ML odds.
Selections:  2-9-6-8
Race 6:  7yo #11 Mr. Vegas has won just once over the last two years (only 11 starts), but he's a perfect example of why horses cutting back to short turf sprints are at a big disadvantage.  Turned back to 5.5 furlongs for his last start, he was immediately outpaced to the back of the field by quicker horses, and was never a factor.  He's better going longer, and one of his better races makes him a handful in this field.  #1A Depeche Chat settled back in last and then powered through the stretch to close down frontrunning Thomas Hill first off the claim.  Similar performance makes him a threat but must draw in.  #3 Hard Enough was second-best without threat in restricted stakes company off the claim.  This is a better spot.  #10 McIlroy has been in solid form since claimed by Chad Brown back in February, and he will appreciate the class relief he sees here after getting buried in a tougher spot last time.
Selections:  11-1A-3-10
Race 7:  #2 Official has run well in both turf starts to date, and she rallied gamely through traffic when sprinting last time.  We didn't care for the unaggressive ride given to #10 Aesthetique last time, but we've also grown tired of making excuses for this horse, whom we've championed right from the start.  She's becoming expensive for us to follow, but we will use her somewhere in this race.  #3 Given Fire is the horse to beat off of her last two.  She has speed and will benefit from the slightly shorter distance of this race.  
Selections:  2-10-3-12
Race 8:  One more try for #8 Isn'tlovejustgrand, who continues to go well this year while failing to catch the right situation.  Can be more aggressively ridden if necessary, and he was dead-game through the stretch once again when chasing a frontrunning winner last time.  #6 Strong Impact hasn't panned out since being claimed for $80k earlier this year, but he's faced tougher right along and is supposed to be tough on these horses.  #5 Asset Inflation is not likely to cruise along on a loose lead as he did last time, but he's versatile enough for that not to be an excuse, and he is one tough trip away from being an undefeated turf sprinter. 
Selections:  8-6-5-3
Race 9:  #1 Congress Park was unlucky to run into a powerful firster from Chad Brown's barn on debut, but she ran a big race in her own right and is going to be tough to defeat here if running something close to that right back.  #11 Courageisamajority got in a sprint prep, and now stretches out for second career start.  More distance figures to work for her, as her dam was a multiple graded stakes winner going long on grass.  #10 Truly Posseble is a half to a pair of turf winners, including Infinite Magic, who won the Grade 3 American Derby on turf as a 3yo.  #12 Fourstar Crook debuts for Chad Brown, who has been virtually unbeatable with his 2yo first-time starters on turf over the past few months. 
Selections:  1-11-10-12

TimeformUS Analysis for October 9

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at glorious Belmont Park on Thursday October 9th

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #1 Ackeret is a bit of a guess, but he brought $53k earlier this year, which seems like a tidy sum for a son of Mach Ride, and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with 2yo first-time starters in maiden claiming company.  #7 Whateveryouwant has run the two fastest races of the experienced runners, and he will appreciate the class drop he sees here after facing recent Grade 1 winner Carpe Diem and the impressive First Down in his first two starts.  Showed more speed in his second start, which will serve him well in this kind of field.    He will likely have to deal with #3 Radamel, who flashed plenty of early zip before tiring in his debut.  
Selections:  1-7-3-8
Race 2:  Nine evenly matched fillies and mares will line up to go 8.5 furlongs on grass.  #11 Flamingo Lane has won three of her last four on grass, has done so from on the pace, off the pace, and from a stalking position, and is the horse to beat.  #8 One Penny Piece has proven to be highly competitive at this level, and she wound up in heavy stretch traffic when behind Flamingo Lane last time.  Not all that much separating those two from the rest, so we'll just advise looking for a price.  
Selections:  8-11-4-3
Race 3:  Not much speed signed on to this 7-furlong turf sprint, and #9 Spanish Concert has the speed to take advantage.  We don't really want her as an unknown on turf, and will instead try #5 Blisstering Strike, who drops in class and can get a position up close to the pace.  She looked good winning her turf debut with a game late run, and she was bounced around early in her last start before once again finishing gamely in a race that was holding together up front.  #4 Simple Love landed a good trip up close but was outfinished at this level last time.  Figures competitive if pulling a similar trip in this spot. 
Selections:  5-4-1-2
Race 4:  The often disappointing #4 Horatio was putting things together earlier this year, and it all came together for him in that blowout win over this track at the end of June.  Faced tougher in his two starts upstate (Race Ratings of 99 and 100 vs. today's 91), and figures tough on the drop.  #8 Joe Mooch has proven very competitive at this level, with a win and a pair of close-up finishes from his last three starts and TFUS Speed Figures of 90-93-89.  Pace Projector gives him the early advantage in this field.  #1 Reggie D is tough to take on top with his overall record, and he is at his best as a closing sprinter, but he will generally show up and run his race.  
Selections: 4-8-1-2
Race 5:  #8 Royal Blessing takes a big class drop here, and he will appreciate this turn-back in distance after trying longer trips in three of his four 2014 starts.  Really is supposed to win this with one of his good races.  
#10 Gourmet Dinner also tried to stretch out last time, and he ran very well when properly spotted at Saratoga.  Career record on grass stands at 0-for-9, but 5 of those came in stakes company.  #4 Dreaming of Danny goes first off the claim for Bruce Brown, an excellent trainer who doesn't have a strong record off the claim (only a 43 rating). This horse is fast enough to win, however, and has the positional speed to pull the right trip.
Selections:  8-10-4-5
Race 6:  #3 Miss Matzoball added lasix for her second career start, and she showed more speed that day en route to an improved finish.  May improve further with the switch to grass, as her dam is a sister to Madame Giry, a multiple stakes winning turf sprinter who has earned over $560k.  #11 Broken Border gets a solid 90 Breeding Rating for turf sprints (dam was an eight-time winner on grass, including a Grade 3), and trainer Jason Servis gets a strong 98 rating with turf sprinters.  #12 Hot City Girl is a half to the wickedly fast graded stakes winner La Verdad, so one would expect her to get a shot on dirt, but she'll debut on grass.  If she's as fast as her talented sister, then she's likely to be too much for a field like this.  
Selections:  3-11-12-6
Race 7:  #2 Here's Zealicious hasn't performed up to her best since being claimed in July, but she missed the break two starts back and then caught a sloppy sealed track for just the second time in her career last time.  Best race makes her very tough in here and she has speed.  #7 Run a Dubb Dubb was in career-best form when last seen in the spring, and might be looking even better except for running into back-to-back speed-favoring tracks in her two most recent starts.  Goes second off the claim for an excellent trainer.  #5 Irish Sweepstakes was unlucky to run into Artemis Agrotera after a brief detour to turf, but she has flashed enough ability to be taken seriously in this field.  
Selections:  2-7-5-1
Race 8:  #9 Can'thelpbelieving is a 3yo facing elders, but he appears to have no distance limitations, and the only time he teamed up with this rider, he was kept right up close tracking a loose leader before running that horse over in the stretch.  Similar tactics may be required here, as #7 Joes Blazing Aaron, fresh off of a front-running domination of a couple of these horses over this distance, once again projects to be the lone speed.  
#5 Where's Danny may not want this kind of stretch out, but he's been in terrific form on turf all year, and he will be a big price once again.  #3 Red Vine and #4 Artic North will try Joes Blazing Aaron once again, and while we much prefer Artic North of those two, we want a new face in here. 
Selections:  9-7-5-4
Race 9:  #13 Spa City Treasure finished behind a couple of these horses when forced to contest a fast pace from his outside post last time.  Will be outside again if able to draw in, but he doesn't need to be on the pace, and an effort more like the one two back will make him tough.  #2 Spark to Ignite finally stepped it up two back when second best at a big price.  Earned 81 TFUS Speed Figure that day, and he's down in class for the first time today.  #11 Wishandaprayer was forced to contest a fast pace in muddy track debut before tiring.  Switches to try a turf sprint with strong 92 Breeding Rating in tow.  #12 Market Sense is a first-time starter in the right kind of field, and he pulls a solid Breeding Rating of 89 for turf sprints. 
Selections: 13-2-11-12 

TimeformUS Analysis for October 8

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Belmont Park on Wednesday October 8th

Race 1:  #8 Starago was carried in badly before having to steady out at the start of his debut, but he managed to put in a run from the back of the pack before tiring a bit late.  Pace Projector indicates that he may have a fast pace to close into, and his underrated trainer has been at his best with turf routers (99 rating).  #11 Forever Utopia is in danger of becoming a career maiden, with 8 second-place finishes from his first 12 starts, but he's run the fastest races and has faced some tougher company.  #4 Talladega has run well enough in all three starts to date to win a race like this one, and he may also appreciate having a little more pace up front after chasing a moderate one last time.

Selections:  8-11-4-7
Race 2:  #1A Screenplay took a tough beat after getting hooked up on a fast pace last time, and he's been in good form since being claimed by these connections, winning three of six and holding his own in graded stakes company. #5 Days Ride was lucky to win last time, when the rider of runner-up TizYankee lost an iron in deep stretch, but he's holding good form as well, and has been facing fields more highly rated than this one.  #4 Skiffs Brewmeister took advantage of a softened-up Screenplay on August 17, and he may catch another favorable scenario here, as Pace Projector indicates that that rival may have some company up front once again.
Selections:  1A-5-4-6
Race 3:  #1 Coral Beach didn't get much of a figure and never threatened in Saratoga debut, but she finished with some interest and galloped out past the wire as the less-fancied half of a Pletcher pair.  Not familiar with rider named, but Pletcher has been hot lately, and he gets a perfect 100 rating with second-time starters.  #5 Okay Momma has a solid Breeding Rating of 81 for dirt sprints, and she is a half to a pair of 5-time winners from a dam who went 5-for-12 sprinting on dirt in her career.  #2 Breach of Duty (83) and #6 Riddle Me This (84) both move over from turf with solid Breeding Ratings for the switch while also dropping in class.  Either is logical in this spot. 
Selections:  1-5-6-2
Race 4:  #2 Premium has run well in all three starts since arriving stateside, and she did not have a fair chance last time when in behind horses throughout most of the running.  Trainer gets big 97 rating with first-time lasix.  #8 Little Journey may be the horse to beat as she drops out of graded stakes company for Chad Brown, but her typical race since arriving gives her no edge on this field.  #4 Clearbrook is a galloping type who will appreciate getting some extra ground to work with in this spot.  #3 Sabbatical figured to be better on grass as a half to the Grade 1 winning turfer Imagining, but she got a perfect trip vs. a weaker field last time.
Selections:  2-8-4-3
Race 5:  #3 Amber Morning has proven a consistent turf sprinter, and she drops back down to a better spot here.  Pace Projector doesn't designate a fast one for this race, but it figures to be competitive, with three horses all up front together early.  #5 Lakeview Lady and #9 Benny's Bullet both have races that make them hard to beat in this spot, but they are two of the runners expected to be contesting the pace, and they may hurt each other.  #8 Rock N Cozy never wins, but she always runs late and can get a big piece if the fractions get heated.
Selections:  3-5-9-8
Race 6:  #2 Mr Harlan is a half to the speedy stakes winning sprinter Isabelle, who is currently 3-for-6 and has won her last three starts vs. NY-breds by over 18 lengths combined.  Isabelle also races for this underrated trainer, who pulls a strong 97 rating with dirt sprinters and a 100 rating with sprinters on the NYRA circuit.  #6 Buddy the Elf was second best in turf sprint debut, but he may do better with this surface switch (88 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints) as the first foal from a dam who won 12 races on dirt while earning over $300k.  #5 Got Winged debuted in that same turf race, but he also gets a solid Breeding Rating for dirt sprints (85) and is a half to Afleet Alexandra, a stakes winner on dirt.   
Selections:  2-6-5-8
Race 7:  Wide-open turf route for NY-breds requires evaluating the board before making final decisions.  #6 Majestic Raffy has trouble finding the winner's circle, but the same can be said for several of these.  He has been in good form all year without winning.  #1 Elroi is a chronic slow-breaker who is always leaving himself with much to do, but he runs every time and has a strong closing kick (101 Late Pace rating tops the field).  #3 Analysis has also been holding solid form, and he is tactical enough to pull any kind of trip, but he may not be much price in here.  We'll also give a look to our old friends #7 Alarmed Ndangerous and #11 Jonrah, both of whom have a race plenty good enough in here. 
Selections:  6-1-7-11
Race 8:  Solid allowance field features the return of three talented runners in #1 Bay of Plenty, #6 Vinceremos and #8 Saint Vigeur.  They are joined by a pair of runners in #4 Bad Hombre and #5 Crushing who have enough ability to ensure that one, or all, of them will have to come back running in order to prevail.  Bad Hombre was a winner over this track and trip back in July, and he ran another good one going longer at Saratoga before catching mud and turf in his next two starts.  Fast enough on his best to be a handful in here, and he's likely to be a price.  
Selections:  4-6-8-1
Race 9:  #6 Maura's Pass is a handful to ride, so we'll see if she can finally settle enough to work out a comfortable trip, which hasn't happened for her in her last three.  Class drop figures to help.  #10 Unrepented was caught wide off the pace behind a frontrunning winner on turf in her debut, then showed more speed on dirt in her second start.  New trainer gets strong rating of 87 with turf runners.  #7 Lovely Lanie also drops back down in class, and she has improved on grass for a trainer having a good meet here.  
Selections: 10-6-7-9



TimeformUS Analysis for October 5

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of the Races at Sublime Belmont Park on Sunday October 4
Race 1:  #1 Etiquette is the horse to beat off of her runner-up finish behind Feathered at Saratoga, but that track was favoring the inside and she just rode the rail behind the winner all the way.  As an alternative to her, we'll try #5 Theophilia, who also exits that August 31 race behind Feathered.  She was on the outside all the way that day, and Mott gets better performances out of his second-time starters (92 trainer rating with 2yo maidens off of this kind of layoff).
Selections:  5-1-2-4
Race 2:  #3 Mr Maybe came with a good run to win turf debut after a long layoff, and he came back to give game chase to an in-form winner at Laurel last time.  Has displayed a solid finishing kick in all three starts this year, and Pace Projector indicates that he will have a fast pace to close into.  #7 March Reward is first off the claim for Mike Maker (97 rating) and will put blinkers on (100 rating).  Has speed, but has won from a stalking position in the past.  #5 Are We Not Men was given a heads-up ride last time to take what was available to him in wiring a field of maidens off the claim.  Has proven capable of closing effectively in the past, as well.  If we're off the turf, #4 Classic Sense figures to be a short price, and will be tough to go against.
Selections:  3-7-5-2
Race 3:  #1 For the Luv of Lil was in too tough over a distance too far last time, but he was a good winner with a 95 TFUS Speed Figure two starts back, and he handles a wet track well, should those conditions prevail.  #2 Cousin Michael may be the horse to beat in current form, and he has the tractable speed to pull the right trip.  #4 Groomedforvictory broke through the gate prior to the start last time, and then failed to run his race first time out for dangerous connections.  Can do better this time as he drops back down, and his best race will be too much for these.
Selections:  1-4-2-7
Race 4:  Grade 2 Futurity for 2yos pulled only five, but there are a couple in here with much upside.  #2 Blofeld wasn't the most professional Pletcher-trained first-time starter we've witnessed, but he flashed plenty of raw talent when finally straightening out enough to run down a fast rival at Saratoga.  98 TFUS Speed Figure for that effort tops the field.  #5 Hebbronville has been very impressive in pair of wins out of town, and he drew perfectly on the outside.  #1 Cinco Charlie has the seasoning that the others lack, but he has the look of an early 2yo and always figured to be vulnerable to the later-developing members of the class.
Selections:  2-5-1-4
Race 5:  Seems unlikely that we'll be on the turf, but if we are, #2 Queen's Prize was well thought of in Europe to begin her career, and she figures tough with lasix on for Clement.  On dirt we will lean to #11 Snowbell.  Always promising, she stepped up her game to break her maiden at Saratoga with a 94 TFUS Speed Figure, and she had plenty of trouble finding a clear lane when defeated last time.  #7 Pretty Syrie impressed when closing gamely to win dirt debut with an 87 speed figure.  Has run well enough on grass recently, but we can stick with her if we're off, and she stays in.  #4 Madaket Millie was blown away by House Rules last time, but her dirt debut prior to that makes her a major contender.
Selections:  2-11-7-4
Race 6:  Looks like a good spot for #2 Pecorino, who has some turf in his pedigree (dam is a sister to Grade 2 turf winner Big Booster), and has run the fastest dirt races in the field.  Handled off tracks just fine in last two starts, and he looks like the main speed if we're off the grass.  #11 Ice Wagon may need to step it up if Pecorino runs his best race, but he's run well in each of his last two starts and will appreciate cutting back in distance for this.  We would be against #6 Saint Finian on grass, but he would be in receipt of some major class relief on dirt should he stay in.
Selections:  2-11-6-12
Race 7:  #4 Belle de Lawers didn't handle the step-up into stakes company after her winning debut overseas, but she has landed in the right kind of field should we remain on turf.  On dirt, we'll guess with #2 Satisfaction.  She has been heading the wrong way on grass but pulls a perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt as her dam is a full-sister to Heavenly Prize, so perhaps she will pick up her game a little on the main track.  #1 High Heel Kitten ran her best race to date over a yielding course here, so we could give her a chance to rebound on grass.  She also gets a perfect 100 Breeding Rating for dirt and is a full-sister to Csaba, who is a multiple graded stakes winner on the main track.  
Selections:  4-2-1-3
Race 8:  #4 Savvy Star made an impressive debut to overcome big trouble at the start and a wide trip to gain a share of the win.  Has a big pedigree and Mott does very well coming right back with last-out maiden winners (99 rating).  #9 Princess Violet is the horse to beat as she drops out of a no-chance trip against an inside-speed track in the Grade 2 Prioress.  #5 Bella Bianca impressed when blowing away maidens at Penn National with an 85 TFUS Speed Figure, and she did it over a wet track. 
Selections:  4-9-5-7
Race 9:  Enough pace signed on to give #7 Image of Noon another chance, if we're on grass. She has come back in good form as a 4yo.  On dirt, we'll hope that #1 Henry's Gal stays in.  She has run some of the fastest races in the field while winning four of six on the main track, and she's the inside speed.  #5 Run a Dubb Dubb was in career-best form when last seen earlier this year, and she will be a factor if running her race right off the layoff for a dangerous trainer.  
Selections:  7-1-5-16-13
Race 10:  #1 Darling Sky impressed in debut despite racing greenly, and she had little chance when left to chase Condo Commando in the slop in the Grade 1 Spinaway.  Gets another chance from us.  #3 Paris Bikini wasn't the most impressive debut winner we've ever seen from this barn (71 TFUS Speed Figure), but she did what she had to do and is bred to improve with racing.  #8 Save Rock and Roll may have to improve to win this, but Pace Projector indicates that there will be a fast pace in this race, and she has closed ground in both starts.
Selections:  1-3-8-5
Race 11:  #9 Call Wil is entered for turf but was an open-lengths winner in his last dirt start, and he will be first-time lasix on dirt in his second start for an excellent trainer.  #7 Cosmic Coincidence may be the horse to beat if we're on the main track, and the cut-back to a mile figures to be a better fit for him, but #1 Distorted Dream interests us more.  He never wins, which is a major concern, but he has run all of the fastest races on dirt, and he could be the main speed in the field if he stays in.  #4 With Expression is a guess on the main track, but his dam is a half to the multiple stakes winning dirt sprinter Kashatreya.  
Selections:  9-1-7-4