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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for October 4

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Saturday October 4

>Go to the TimeformUS PPs for these races

Race 1:  #6 Macagone blew a pair of clear leads upstate after cutting fast paces, but he took a field all the way in his last start down here, and he is in position to control things up front once again.  Doesn't appear to be in against as tough a crew here as he was facing upstate.  #7 Oklahoma Den is an interesting new face to this bunch, and his last three races are the best he has ever run (TFUS Speed Figures of 91-90-92).  Not much separating the trio of #3 Iced Over, #8 Slew's Brew and #9 Tiger D, and while we aren't excited about the prospect of betting on any of them, we recognize that all of them can continue to improve. 
Selections:  6-7-3-9
Race 2:  #6 Heading to Boca ran well while putting in a wide run in his debut in November of 2013, and he could only chase a front-running winner when last seen back in January.  Makes his first start for dangerous connections (trainer gets a 96 rating first off the claim and a 98 off the layoff), and is a threat if showing improvement as a 3yo.  #3 Smoke Police was in too tough last time, and it didn't help that he was bumped and steadied on the backstretch that day.  Debut effort was OK, and he figures to appreciate the class relief.  #7 Hi Speed Chase has dangerous speed second off the layoff, but may have some company up front in this race.
Selections:  6-3-2-7
Race 3:  #6 Consumer Credit dropped a tough one when buried in traffic while loaded through the stretch of her well-backed debut.  Stretch out in distance shouldn't be an issue.  #8 Neilinger was also unable to secure a clear passage first time out at Saratoga, but she raced on to the end in an effort that was much better than it may appear.  Forgiving the stakes try in her second start, she has the pedigree to stretch out (87 Breeding Rating for turf routes), and she'll be a price.  #3 Miss Always Ready dropped out of contention in her well-bet debut at Saratoga and has gone back to the drawing board for Pletcher.  Returns with a series of improved works and may run much better now. 
Selections:  8-6-3-11
Race 4:  #1 Cary Street and #5 Ever Rider hooked up in a stretch duel and finished 1-2 in the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup last time, a race that drew a much stronger field than this one.  We want Ever Rider out of that race, as he was forced to do all of the work in there after an ill-judged ride, while Cary Street sat in a perfect trip all the way.  #4 Desvelo and #6 Village Warrior were 1-2 over 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga last time, and are the logical alternatives to the favorites.  
Selections:  5-1-4-6
Race 5:  #6 Lunar Tales missed the break and then took the worst of it when forced into a long wide run to contention before falling just short as the favorite last time.  He's tough in here if running as well right back, and he has won previously going a mile, so the added distance doesn't figure to work against him.  #7 Gentrify chased a fast pace and tired in a race that went to closers in lone turf start to date.  Switches back with lasix on for the first time, and Pace Projector favors runners on or near the lead.  #1 Peb the Champ was much the best when closing into a fast pace in first turf sprint back in June, and he held his own going longer last time.  Should appreciate cutting back in distance here.  
Selections:  6-7-1-10
Race 6:  While #6 Condo Commando has been the most impressive 2yo filly in the Frizette field to this point, winning her two races by over 25 lengths combined and hanging up a big 105 TFUS Speed Figure for her Grade 1 win last time out, we are concerned that she improved so much in the slop in that race and wonder if she will continue to carry her speed as the distances stretch out.  #7 By the Moon remains unexposed to this point, and she had little chance to catch Condo Commando over that sloppy track last time.  She is well-bred for the stretch-out (90 Breeding Rating), and we are going to give her a chance to step forward here at a price.  
We will also use #2 Wonder Gal, who was unlucky when stopped in the stretch in the Adirondack last time and may come forward quickly.
Selections:  7-2-6-1
Race 7:  #9 Iron Power dropped a tough decision last time after clearly running the best race of anyone in that spot.  He also ran very well two starts back, when second to the talented Storm.  Turn-back to one mile suits him, and he will be tough if running as well in this spot .  #4 Los Borrachos has taken to turf well recently, and he was a game second best to an impressive Heart to Heart last time.  Pace Projector indicates that he will have plenty of pace to close into in this race.  #7 Powerful Instinct is a dangerous closer for a hot trainer, and he has picked up his game noticeably since switching to this barn late last year. 
Selections:  9-4-7-5
Race 8:  Grade 1 Champagne will be the coming out party for one of these 2yos, and we think it may be #6 Daredevil.  Highly impressive in sloppy-track score first time out with a 91 TFUS Speed Figure, he has the look of a good one for Pletcher.  
#3 I Spent It is the field's lone graded stakes winner, and he acquitted himself well when forced to contest a fast pace in the Grade 1 Hopeful last time.  Experience counts, and he's run big speed figures (including a 92 in the Hopeful) against strong competition.  #2 Upstart is a talented NY-bred who doesn't need things to go his way in order to perform to his best, an admirable quality in a young horse. He is a big player in here.
Selections:  6-3-2-1
Race 9:  Stellar edition of the Grade 3 Hill Prince drew a field full of quality 3yo turf horses.  All three of #1 Ring Weekend, #5 Tourist and #9 Mr Speaker appear to have what it takes to go on to win some big turf races in this country, and it may simply come down to trips to separate them in this spot.  Tourist has the speed, and he will be looking to control this race from the start.  He ran big when stretched out to 1 1/4 miles and cutting a fast pace at Arlington last time, and he may have an easier time of it early in here.  Mr Speaker tried his luck in the Travers last time, but he's back to his best surface here, has no distance issues, and he gunned down the talented Adelaide in winning the Grade 1 Belmont Derby in July.  Ring Weekend has run well in back-to-back starts since switching over to turf, but he will face a tougher test here than he did in the Grade 3 Saranac last time. #6 Sheldon got caught up in traffic at a crucial point when finishing behind Mr Speaker in the Belmont Derby, and he came through with another good effort behind Tourist last time.  He's a longshot with a chance; he just needs some pace.  The three imports, #2 Sloane Avenue, #3 Blacktype and #8 Cabral, have combined to go 0-for-9 on grass and 6-for-10 on synthetic in Europe.  Not sure what that means, but we are interested in using Sloane Avenue, whose lone turf start came over 1 1/4 miles off of a layoff, and he was viewed as an interesting prospect over there.  
Selections:  2-9-5-6
Race 10:  #1 Leroy Jr. put up TFUS Speed Figures of 100 and 101 in his two dirt starts last year, and he is the projected lone speed in this race.  Going to be tough in here if running his race.  #6 Sun Storm paid a big price when winning his debut last summer over this track, but there wasn't anything fluky about that win, as he kept in range of a pace that collapsed and gamely forced his way through between horses in the stretch.  Long layoff is a concern, but he figures to be a price once again.  #4 Groupthink continued his disappointing ways upstate, and is impossible to trust at this point.  Does have a big effort on a wet track, so we will look him up if the rain comes.  
Selections:  1-6-4-3
Race 11:  Several candidates set to step forward in this race should we be on the grass.  #8 Boldlee will attract much attention after his tough-trip loss last time and is a major player in this race.  #7 Thrown of My Own raced very greenly in his debut and appeared to be a horse who may appreciate the bigger layout here after failing to run through the turn at Saratoga.  #3 Memories of Peter went through the motions after breaking slowly in his debut, but he has a big pedigree and can do better with that experience behind him.  
Selections:  7-3-8-9

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TimeformUS Analysis for OCtober 3

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Friday October 3rd

Race 1:  #5 Gold Shield took money first-time out but caught an inside-speed-favoring track and was never involved in the proceedings.  $1 million colt likely has more to offer, and returns with lasix on.  #1 Wild Dynaformer ran into the impressive Daredevil over a muddy track in his debut and was never a factor after breaking slowly and racing wide. Will also get lasix for the first time, and deserves a few more chances.  #3 Global Warrior is a half to a pair of multiple winners out of a dam who is a sister to a multiple graded stakes winning millionaire on dirt.  

Selections:  5-1-3-6
Race 2:  Interested to see what we get from #5 Herd Mentality, who turned things around in a big way in blowout win last time.  Similar effort makes him tough, but he's stepping way up in class (82 Race Rating last time, 92 today).  #1A Classic Salsa gets a pass for most recent race, in which he was slammed hard after stumbling at the break and then endured more bumping on the backstretch before having to steady hard.  He was pulled up before reaching the stretch in that spot.  Form in NY prior to the short layoff makes him competitive and he's nicely drawn on the outside.  #2B Indy Sea is second off the claim (98 Trainer Rating) for Rudy after being forced to chase a loose-on-the-lead winner last time.  Best race makes him competitive in this field.  
Selections:  1A-2B-5-6
Race 3:  With the expected scratch of projected lone speed #2 Island Candy (just raced on Wednesday), there is no confirmed frontrunner left in this field.  We'll see who gets aggressive, though it may be #5 Little Gidding, who picks up a 7-lb. bug rider, and who was up on the pace and ahead of several of these horses two back.  She couldn't see out the 7 furlongs that day but goes a bit shorter here, and she was in way too tough last time.  #3 Da Wildcat Girl kept up close and came gamely to cut down Little Gidding at Saratoga.  She's been going well since being brought back from a layoff in May and feels like the horse to beat.  #6 Ocean Boulevard cuts back to a sprint after defeating a weak field over a mile last time.  Bodes well for her that she was able to keep up with the pace in that race.
Selections:  2-3-5-6-1
Race 4:  #1 Lucky Leroy Brown is the experienced runner with the best form, and he may appreciate this slight class relief after chasing Vision Perfect (returned to run 2nd in Grade 3 Pilgrim last week) home last month.  #5 Ready Strike gets a solid Breeding Rating of 91 for turf routes, and his trainer can win with first-time starters.  From the female family of J P's Gusto, who never ran on turf but was a Grade 1 winner on synthetic.  #8 Fuhrious Warrior also pulls a 91 Breeding Rating as a half to the multiple graded stakes winning Imperialism and to White Beauty, who won 10 times on turf in her career, including several stakes.
Selections:  1-5-8-4
Race 5:  #7 Bossanova Lady drops back in with restricted claiming company after finding allowance foes too tough last time.  Is at her best sprinting, whether it be turf or dirt, and she has enough speed to land a tracking spot up close in this field.  #2 Fire Ship has improved since being switched over to turf and dropped in class.  Has speed from an inside post, and trainer gets a strong rating of 94 with last-out winners.  #6 Malibu Queen is a good fit in this field, but is becoming tough to take on top, and has already had 8 cracks at this two-life claiming condition. 
Selections:  7-2-6-8
Race 6:  #2 Mumtaazah made a promising debut with a 94 TFUS Speed Figure back in November.  She returned from a layoff at Saratoga and could not get involved after a slow start.  Giving her one more chance in likely spot if she can get back to something more like that first one.  #4 Glacken's Gift also made a promising debut when racing on gamely from behind a moderate pace.  Been a year since that effort, and she'll return with lasix on. Firster #3 Majestic Empire shows up with some quick works for a top trainer.  #7 True Romance debuts for a trainer pulling a lowly 34 rating with first-time starters, but she has a strong pedigree rating of 93 for dirt sprints.  #9 Blooper debuts for Michelle Nevin, who won with a couple of first-time starters at Saratoga this year, and her dam has dropped four prior foals, all of them winners. 
Selections:  2-4-3-7
Race 7:  #4 Dighton hasn't run his best race since the trainer change, but he was in career-best form in NY prior to that, and he has a versatile running style that will allow his rider options.  #8 Power World has run some races that would be too much for these horses, and he has speed in a race projected to favor that running style.  McPeek doesn't reach in very often, but he's won right back with three of the last ten horses he's claimed.  #5 Doubledown Again doesn't appreciate off-going, which he faced at Saratoga last time, but he has some pace at his disposal, and his new trainer gets a 96 rating first off the claim.  
Selections:  4-8-5-1
Race 8:  #1 Princess Mara is back to a better distance for this after trying longer routes.  Nine-time winner has been facing much tougher than this all summer, and she is dangerous in this field with one of her good races.  #4 Miz Owell was in too tough vs. Grade 1 winners Dayatthespa and Discreet Marq last time, but she's been holding good form all year at around this level, and there appears to be enough pace entered in this race to help her late run.  #10 Chrysolite is lightly raced and coming along nicely for an underrated trainer.  Just missed last time with a new top TFUS Speed Figure.
Selections:  1-4-10-12
Race 9:  #2 Hush Now was hustled away from the gate trying for the lead in her well-bet debut, but could only chase a fast pace early before giving way.  May be fastest, and much more dangerous, in this field.  #6 Sandra and #5 Majestic Jessica debuted in the same race last month and settled for minor awards in a race that found the 1-2 finishers up on the pace throughout.  We'll expect them to come forward here in a field loaded with first-time starters.  #8 Tricky Zippy is a half to Eye Luv Lulu, a talented runner for these connections who has made almost $200k so far, and she's drawn well on the outside for her debut.  #3 Madoo starts for a trainer who does excellent work with young horses, and she's a half to Cribnote, who was a good 2yo for this trainer a few years ago.  
Selections:  2-6-5-8

TimeformUS Analysis for October 2

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of the Races at Glorious Belmont Park on Thursday October 2
Race 1:  #4 Rachel's Temper dropped in vs. MCL company for the first time when off the layoff at Saratoga, and she ran well while only 2nd best behind an impressive winner.  Can do better second time back, and there is enough speed signed on here to keep things honest in front of her.  #1 Beauty Surprise was rated back in the early stages last time, and those tactics worked well, though she was still outfinished at a short price.  Has some speed at her disposal and projects for a nice trip tracking along the inside.  #8 Angel Choir drops back down after facing a couple of tough fields at Saratoga, and she narrowly missed in back-to-back races at big prices two-and three-starts back.
Selections:  4-1-8-6
Race 2:  #2 Kool Kat Strut steadied out at the start and may have been intimidated while racing down on the rail throughout his debut run behind a blowout winner.  Can do better for the experience, and may possess more speed, assuming a clean break this time.  #6 No Herring has yet to run on fast dirt, and he drops in class for third career start after chasing a fast pace and tiring in what has turned out to be a live race.  #3 Saratoga Shock debuts for top connections and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with 2yo first-time starters in MCL company.  
Selections:  2-6-3-5
Race 3:  #4 Zoebear has yet to sprint on dirt since arriving in NY, but he'll do so off the claim here.  Earned TFUS Speed Figures of 99 and 100 the last two times he sprinted over fast dirt.  #1 Make a Fortune looked good rolling clear in the mud 11 days ago, and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating bringing horses back in sprints off of this kind of rest.  Projects to be the clear early speed in this race, assuming he is the half of the entry that starts.  #5 Shankopotamus was against a track that was favoring speed and the inside when pulled up as the favorite last time.  Effort two back makes him tough, and he has the early speed to be effective in this spot. 
Selections:  4-1-5-3
Race 4:  #1 She's Roman got bet but failed to establish forward position from the rail first-time out and wound up getting outrun early before commencing a strong late rally.  She fell just short of catching #5 Miss Potenza for second, and then galloped out strongly past the field after the wire.  Miss Potenza battled on the pace with the winner in that spot, and she stayed gamely all the way despite being unable to get by to the lead.  #3 Zo Zo disappointed at short prices in first two starts on dirt, then switched over to turf last time to no avail.  Back to dirt and on the drop for a trainer who pulls a perfect 100 rating with runners dropping from MSW to MCL company.  
Selections:  1-5-3-2
Race 5:  #7 Joking couldn't get to a frontrunning winner on a moderate pace when back on turf last time.  Figures to be up close in a race that favors that running style, and he has shown in the past that he can run his race on grass.  #1 Why Not Whiskey is an infrequent winner, and he projects to be up against it from a pace perspective, but he has been holding good form recently and drops down in class with the top Late Pace Rating in the field.  #2 Honor the Kitten also has a strong late kick, and his Late Pace rating of 96 falls just shy of Why Not Whiskey's 99.  
Selections:  7-1-2-3
Race 6:  #2 Kerjillion was no match for his impressive stablemate Offering Plan on debut at Saratoga, but he raced on gamely to be a clear 2nd best and is eligible to be better for the experience.  Offering Plan flattered that effort when returning to finish a solid 3rd in graded stakes company last weekend.  #5 Fulmer has a solid Breeding Rating of 86 for turf routes, and Clement is among the very best in the game at having his first-time starters set to go long on grass first-time out (100 rating).  #6 Fleeting didn't factor after taking some money in sprint debut but can improve off that one and may appreciate stretching out, being from the family of Plenty of Grace and Soaring Softly, both multiple graded stakes winners routing on dirt.  Seems unlikely that he'll get in, but if he does, then #15 Scooby Dude bears watching.  He made an impressive, if ill-timed, run in his debut while flashing plenty of ability. 
Selections:  2-5-6-15
Race 7:  #3 Frogman Mel figures to be a playable price in an open-looking race, and he gets a trainer change to Steve Klesaris (87 overall rating).  Didn't bring his speed over to Monmouth last time, but he is fast enough to be close in a race that projects to favor runners on or near the early lead.  #4 Vona switched to turf off the claim at Saratoga and stayed gamely after cutting the pace before dropping a narrow decision.  Will be tough in here with a similar effort.  #9 Elusive Success ran the two best races of his life when returned from a long layoff earlier this year.  Has been away an additional 200 days since then, but he pulls a strong Pedigree Rating of 87 for turf sprints and can factor in a race like this if ready off the bench.
Selections:  3-4-9-2
Race 8:  #7 Bakken has had his issues, and most recently had to be scratched from the Grade 1 A. G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga in August, but he's a graded stakes quality talent when right and figures to be too much for this field with one of his good races.  Not that he needs the advantage, but Pace Projector places him in control up front early.  #5 Captain Serious appears to be the main danger as he cuts back to a better distance, but he'll need to pick it up a bit (or hope that Bakken doesn't run his race) in order to come out on top.  #4 Protocol has run some very good races, and he was stuck on a four-wide chase when last seem back in June.  Listed as a vet scratch in the interim.
Selections:  7-5-4-1
Race 9:  #11 Loveisheartandsoul is one of four horses dropping out of the 5th race from September 14th, and he wasn't able to work the cleanest of stretch runs in that spot.  Has run well in all five turf starts to date.  #10 Media Kid has been holding good form vs. some better horses and is the horse to beat as he drops down into restricted claiming company.  #4 Wind of Bosphorus was first to attack a fast pace in that 9/14 race, and he battled gamely right to the end despite weakening late.  Was put in tight coming to the wire that day, which likely cost him 3rd.  #7 Trainingforsuccess is a big price on the ML, but he's plenty good enough to contend with theses horses.  
Selections:  11-10-4-7

TimeformUS Analysis for October 1

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Beautiful Belmont Park on Wednesday October 1

Race 1:  #6 Star Magnolia blew a field away with a new TFUS Speed Figure top first off the claim for this trainer, then ran in a pair of much tougher spots.  Returns on the drop, and has speed in a race projected to favor runners on or near the lead.  #4 Rosemarie goes for low-profile connections and has never finished first in a race, but she has the top Spotlight Figure, and, in fact, has run the four fastest races in the field on our figures.  #2 Andromeda's Risk seemed to catch nothing but biased racetracks at Aqueduct earlier in the year and then had a no-chance trip when checking out of contention on April 3rd.  Failed to establish early position upon her return, behind a heavily favored drops down winner, but raced on gamely through the stretch.
Selections:  6-4-2-5
Race 2:  Interesting race pitting four from the 4th race here on September 13 vs. four MSW drop downs.  The first four all have something to recommend them in here.  Of those, we prefer #6 Professor Pegasus, who was in tight down on the rail throughout the stretch run, and finished gamely despite taking a good bump.  #1A Jimmy Fillpot figures tough as he takes the class drop for a hot trainer, and he has speed.  #5 Bold Runner is also a speed, and he's missed narrowly in each of his last two starts at this level.  #4 Perfect Stormy will be a big price, and he found much traffic through the stretch run of that 9/13 race. 
Selections:  6-1A-4-5
Race 3:  #5 Cara Marie took plenty of money but faced a tough task when debuting over a mile here 20 days ago.  Lands in an easier spot second-time out (Race Rating of 76 in debut, 68 today), and her trainer gets them to come forward second time out (99 rating).  #1 Cover Up was also in that MSW race on September 11, and settled for a no-threat 3rd after getting away slowly from the gate.  #6 I'm a Lucky Girl has taken an awful lot of money in first two starts, so there may be some talent waiting to come out.  Ships in to NY for third start while stretching out for a trainer pulling an impressive 99 rating going route to sprint. 
Selections:  5-1-6-3
Race 4:  #2 Southern Sunshine chased down a fast pace set by #9 Super City last time and stayed gamely when overtaken by a perfect-trip winner.  Similar effort makes her tough, and the trainer change to Mott doesn't hurt.  #10 First Summation makes 3yo debut off of a long layoff, and may not appreciate catching the projected fast pace right off the bat, but she ran fast enough as a 2yo to be competitive here.  Super City showed enough talent when cutting that fast pace first time out to be a factor going forward.  
Selections:  2-10-9-3
Race 5:  #7 Seven Stars got a sprint prep in first time back from an extended layoff, and she gets a big drop in class for this.  Has speed in a race that is projected to favor runners up close.  #4 Ready's Legend may be the horse to beat as she is cut in half by Pletcher, but she holds no edge on this field based on recent form, and she figures to be a short price.  #2 Under Scrutiny has won two of her last three on turf, and she is back down in class after getting in too tough last time.  #8 Outer Orbit has dangerous speed in a field lacking much of same, and she was also in too tough last time.
Selections:  7-4-2-8
Race 6:  #4 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid has been facing tougher than this right along for solid connections and figures to appreciate this class drop.  Has shown some signs that she may be tailing off a bit lately, but typical TFUS Speed Figure in the 90s makes her tough on a field like this one.  #2 Madre Ditutticapi may be the main danger to her.  She is also getting some class relief for the first time since her convincing win at this level back in June, and she'll offer more value.  #1 Bobby Jo is the 2/1 favorite on the ML, but she's a good horse to be against today as she steps up off of a trio of perfect-trip wins.
Selections:  2-4-6-1
Race 7:  #2 Blue Pigeon came away from first two starts this year with plausible excuses, and he ran well in defeat last time despite a perfect trip and ride.  Can be given one more chance vs. this field.  #1A Hidden Vow is faster than Blue Pigeon with his best effort, but is difficult to rely on at 1-for-24 and counting.  He has been facing much better fields than this one.  #3 Archer Hill has been holding good turf form all summer for an excellent trainer and is a viable alternative to a pair of favorites who are difficult to trust.
Selections:  2-1A-3-8
Race 8:  #2 Three Alarm Fire caught a fast pace to close into at Saratoga, but he has impressed in both starts so far and appears to have much upside.  Horse he ran by to break his maiden came back with a big win here last week.  #1 Encryption ensures that Three Alarm Fire will have to be as advertised, as he held his own in stakes company over the summer after posting an impressive maiden win of his own.  #4 Lawmaker will have to come forward quickly in a tough spot here, but we were impressed with him earlier, and he was way against the grain of an inside-speed-favoring track when last seen.
Selections:  2-1-4-3
Race 9:  #9 Summersault was unlucky in debut when unable to get out into the clear in the stretch, and she ultimately wound up having to steady late while looking to come up the rail.  Of the four exiting that MSW event from August 28, we'll take her.  #1 Jadam also exits that race, and she was racing greenly down the outside when just missing 2nd in there.  #14 R Y Squadron has pedigree for a trainer who has few peers in preparing turf runners for debut.  Advisable to keep an eye on scratches to see if she draws in.  #3 Light Years Away got in a prep in off-the-turf sprint two weeks ago.  Full sister to stakes winning turf runner In Te Domine is eligible to improve quickly.  


Selections:  9-1-14-5