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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for October 1

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Racing at Beautiful Belmont Park on Wednesday October 1

Race 1:  #6 Star Magnolia blew a field away with a new TFUS Speed Figure top first off the claim for this trainer, then ran in a pair of much tougher spots.  Returns on the drop, and has speed in a race projected to favor runners on or near the lead.  #4 Rosemarie goes for low-profile connections and has never finished first in a race, but she has the top Spotlight Figure, and, in fact, has run the four fastest races in the field on our figures.  #2 Andromeda's Risk seemed to catch nothing but biased racetracks at Aqueduct earlier in the year and then had a no-chance trip when checking out of contention on April 3rd.  Failed to establish early position upon her return, behind a heavily favored drops down winner, but raced on gamely through the stretch.
Selections:  6-4-2-5
Race 2:  Interesting race pitting four from the 4th race here on September 13 vs. four MSW drop downs.  The first four all have something to recommend them in here.  Of those, we prefer #6 Professor Pegasus, who was in tight down on the rail throughout the stretch run, and finished gamely despite taking a good bump.  #1A Jimmy Fillpot figures tough as he takes the class drop for a hot trainer, and he has speed.  #5 Bold Runner is also a speed, and he's missed narrowly in each of his last two starts at this level.  #4 Perfect Stormy will be a big price, and he found much traffic through the stretch run of that 9/13 race. 
Selections:  6-1A-4-5
Race 3:  #5 Cara Marie took plenty of money but faced a tough task when debuting over a mile here 20 days ago.  Lands in an easier spot second-time out (Race Rating of 76 in debut, 68 today), and her trainer gets them to come forward second time out (99 rating).  #1 Cover Up was also in that MSW race on September 11, and settled for a no-threat 3rd after getting away slowly from the gate.  #6 I'm a Lucky Girl has taken an awful lot of money in first two starts, so there may be some talent waiting to come out.  Ships in to NY for third start while stretching out for a trainer pulling an impressive 99 rating going route to sprint. 
Selections:  5-1-6-3
Race 4:  #2 Southern Sunshine chased down a fast pace set by #9 Super City last time and stayed gamely when overtaken by a perfect-trip winner.  Similar effort makes her tough, and the trainer change to Mott doesn't hurt.  #10 First Summation makes 3yo debut off of a long layoff, and may not appreciate catching the projected fast pace right off the bat, but she ran fast enough as a 2yo to be competitive here.  Super City showed enough talent when cutting that fast pace first time out to be a factor going forward.  
Selections:  2-10-9-3
Race 5:  #7 Seven Stars got a sprint prep in first time back from an extended layoff, and she gets a big drop in class for this.  Has speed in a race that is projected to favor runners up close.  #4 Ready's Legend may be the horse to beat as she is cut in half by Pletcher, but she holds no edge on this field based on recent form, and she figures to be a short price.  #2 Under Scrutiny has won two of her last three on turf, and she is back down in class after getting in too tough last time.  #8 Outer Orbit has dangerous speed in a field lacking much of same, and she was also in too tough last time.
Selections:  7-4-2-8
Race 6:  #4 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid has been facing tougher than this right along for solid connections and figures to appreciate this class drop.  Has shown some signs that she may be tailing off a bit lately, but typical TFUS Speed Figure in the 90s makes her tough on a field like this one.  #2 Madre Ditutticapi may be the main danger to her.  She is also getting some class relief for the first time since her convincing win at this level back in June, and she'll offer more value.  #1 Bobby Jo is the 2/1 favorite on the ML, but she's a good horse to be against today as she steps up off of a trio of perfect-trip wins.
Selections:  2-4-6-1
Race 7:  #2 Blue Pigeon came away from first two starts this year with plausible excuses, and he ran well in defeat last time despite a perfect trip and ride.  Can be given one more chance vs. this field.  #1A Hidden Vow is faster than Blue Pigeon with his best effort, but is difficult to rely on at 1-for-24 and counting.  He has been facing much better fields than this one.  #3 Archer Hill has been holding good turf form all summer for an excellent trainer and is a viable alternative to a pair of favorites who are difficult to trust.
Selections:  2-1A-3-8
Race 8:  #2 Three Alarm Fire caught a fast pace to close into at Saratoga, but he has impressed in both starts so far and appears to have much upside.  Horse he ran by to break his maiden came back with a big win here last week.  #1 Encryption ensures that Three Alarm Fire will have to be as advertised, as he held his own in stakes company over the summer after posting an impressive maiden win of his own.  #4 Lawmaker will have to come forward quickly in a tough spot here, but we were impressed with him earlier, and he was way against the grain of an inside-speed-favoring track when last seen.
Selections:  2-1-4-3
Race 9:  #9 Summersault was unlucky in debut when unable to get out into the clear in the stretch, and she ultimately wound up having to steady late while looking to come up the rail.  Of the four exiting that MSW event from August 28, we'll take her.  #1 Jadam also exits that race, and she was racing greenly down the outside when just missing 2nd in there.  #14 R Y Squadron has pedigree for a trainer who has few peers in preparing turf runners for debut.  Advisable to keep an eye on scratches to see if she draws in.  #3 Light Years Away got in a prep in off-the-turf sprint two weeks ago.  Full sister to stakes winning turf runner In Te Domine is eligible to improve quickly.  


Selections:  9-1-14-5

TimeformUS Analysis for September 28

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the racing at gorgeous Belmont Park on Sunday September 28th
Race 1:  #2 Battle Red is the main speed in this turf sprint for maidens, and he seemed to take to grass well enough when contesting the pace and then proving no match for an impressive debut winner most recently.  He feels like the horse to beat, but there are other interesting horses in here.  #1 River of Dreams doesn't have much turf pedigree, but his dam did win on grass in her career, and he impressed in his debut after encountering severe trouble at the start and then racing wide on an inside-speed-favoring track.  #3 Prima Storm pulls a very strong Breeding Rating for turf sprints and debuts for Clement, who is among the very best at having his first-time starters ready to go.  #8 A Lot was on a wide chase throughout his debut, which was another day where inside speed was deadly at Saratoga, and he is a half to a turf winner.  
Selections:  8-3-1-2
Race 2:  #10 Ostrolenka debuted sprinting over a sloppy sealed track, but he may appreciate having the extra ground to work with today.  He has a solid 86 Breeding Rating for dirt routes, and he is a half-brother to Great Gracie Dane, an earner of over $340k who was best routing on dirt.  #9 Bellamy Way took some money first time out but had no speed and raced evenly.  Eligible to improve quickly.  #3 Persuasive Devil has run well three times without coming away with a victory, but he has speed and is stretching out with some foundation.
Selections:  10-9-3-6
Race 3:  #4 Acrostic appeared to need a few starts once returned from a long layoff earlier this year, but she came through with a better performance when sprinting on grass for the first time here earlier in the meet, and a similar effort makes her tough in here.   #5 Buy or Steal returns from the layoff on the drop, and she showed some speed first time out.  The horse who defeated her in that debut run is now a stakes winner.  #1 Flapper Girl drops down and switches to turf for second career start, and she has enough pedigree to handle the switch (74 rating for turf; her dam is a sister to a pair of graded stakes winners on grass).  Hushion gets perfect 100 rating with second-time starters and when adding blinkers.  
Selections:  4-5-1-7
Race 4:  #1 Depeche Chat is tough in this spot with his best race, and perhaps we'll see it here as he goes first off the claim for Jacobson (96 rating).  Like him cutting back a bit to this distance, and like the change to a more aggressive rider.  #2 Thomas Hill has run quite a bit better than his 0-9 record this year may indicate, and he may be more effective over this longer trip than some of the others.  #3 Awakino Cat can also run his race going this distance, and that may give him the edge over ML favorite #7 Mish Mosh, who had his number upstate. 
Selections:  1-2-3-7
Race 5:  #8 Stephen A has been at his best over a one-turn mile in his career and figures to appreciate the turn-back here after stopping badly going longer upstate.  Drops in class off that effort and has enough speed to stay close, as he did in convincing win over this track/trip two starts back with 91 TFUS Speed Figure.  #2B Straight Fax is one of our favorites, and he ran well last time despite being wide off of a moderate pace.  #3 Mr. Espresso also turns back out of a pair of 9-furlong tries upstate, and he was in good form over this track over the summer.
Selections:  8-2B-3-1
Race 6:  #7 Gridley Here is back to dirt, and an effort like his lone start on this surface up at Saratoga (89 TFUS Speed Figure) makes him very tough in here.  #4 Sea Raven is a tough read off perfect-trip maiden score over a sloppy track, but he's very lightly raced, and they paid some money for him.  #5 Salisbury Knight has faced better than this on dirt since his maiden win over a sloppy track, and he may have an early advantage in a race without much other speed signed on.  
Selections:  7-4-5-9
Race 7:  Miss Grillo stakes goes through the Chad Brown barn, as he has three entered, all of them impressive winners upstate.  #9 Lady Eli figures to attract plenty of attention off her electrifying late run after getting trapped in traffic first time out.  #10 Partisan Politics stretched out to break her maiden in stakes company, and showed real professionalism to hold her position after taking a hard bump heading into the first turn.  #1 Tammy the Torpedo caught a fast early pace to close into, and may have faced the weakest field of the three, but she was impressive nonetheless.  #11 My Cara Mia was given a very good ride, but also really ran in her winning debut sprinting six furlongs. 
Selections:  9-10-11-1
Race 8:  #3 Effinex couldn't get to frontrunning So Lonesome, who cut a fast pace in the Albany, but he drops back in class and distance for this.  Pace Projector indicates that there will be another fast pace in front of him today, and he has a better chance to close these horses down.  #4 Onecats Chance has picked up his game noticeably of late, and done so while deploying newfound positional speed.  #6 Modern Child can get the right trip away from the expected fast pace, and he ran deceptively well last time after getting outrun early.  #10 Quick Money is the ML favorite, and he will appreciate any pace that develops, but he is a question mark stretching out in distance.  
Selections:  3-6-10-4
Race 9:  #2 Startup Nation is two-for-two, with one effort more impressive than the next.  Looks like a real runner for Chad Brown after powering last-to-first in Grade 2 score at Saratoga.  #4 Imperia made an impressive debut of his own despite coming away second best.  He had to switch around very wide to get a run, and he continued making ground on a frontrunning #3 Face the Music all the way.  Makes second start (99 rating for this trainer) with lasix added (97 rating).  #8 Strong Coffee impressed in his debut win, then returned for the With Anticipation showing only one work in the interim and didn't back up that effort.  Can do better this time. 
Selections:  2-4-8-3
Race 10:  Finale doesn't appear to be a bad spot for a first-time starter.  #4 Celebrate We Will gets a 93 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints and debuts for a barn in the midst of a good run.  #7 Domer appears to be working well for a trainer who can win with first-time starters, and he is also well-bred for dirt sprints (89 rating).  Half-brother Longfor the City debuted on grass, but was a winner the first time he tried dirt.  #10 Readyheartandsoul has run the best races so far, but he had a perfect trip tracking along a live rail last time and couldn't seriously threaten in the stretch.  #5 Wildniteattheopera closed well into a fast pace over a muddy track first time out and was game in the stretch to just miss.  #9 Freudex put in a decent run in his debut 163 days ago, and he will be a threat if able to build upon that effort.  Was listed as a vet scratch on September 1. 
Selections:  7-4-10-5

TimeformUS Analysis for September 27

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for the Biggest Day on the Fall Racing Calendar in New York

It's Super Saturday at Belmont Park

Want even deeper analysis of the Grade 1 Stakes on this card? Click here to go to the TimeformUS Race Preview Page where we'll break it down even more.

Race 1:  #2B Zennor created quite a buzz when debuting in the blue Godolphin silks at Saratoga, and he actually ran quite well that day despite being defeated at a short price.  He was hung up four-wide all the way while trying to contest the pace, and he tired only late to fall out of contention.  Figures to have benefited greatly from the experience for a trainer who gets a 99 rating with second-time starters, and he drew a nice post on the outside.  #6 King Rontos has had some tough luck landing in races at Saratoga vs. the likes of Competitive Edge and El Kabeir, but things may not get any easier for him today in what appears to be a loaded race.  There are several interesting first-time starters entered, including Pletcher's #1 Savoy Stomp.  He brought $875k as a yearling, and is from the family of the multiple Grade 1 sprinter Dream Supreme.  #7 Midhmaar is by superstar stallion Tapit, and his dam Take D' Tour was a multiple Grade 1 winner in her career.  Trainer isn't as potent with his first-time starters on dirt (74 rating) as he is on turf.  

Selections:  2B-1-7-6
Race 2:  #3 All My Memories disappointed last time in a race that was full of puzzling performances like his.  We will take the counterintuitive approach to that race and forget about the poor performances, while downgrading the good ones.  Like this distance for him, and he's competitive with his good race.  #5 Noble Cornerstone may be the one to beat as he drops out of the Grade 1 King's Bishop, where he was never going to be competitive.  Has re-found his best form since getting cut back in distance by this trainer.  #2 John's Island ran down Noble Cornerstone over this trip back in May, and he was against an inside-and speed-favoring track last time.  #6 Chapman was with that track when just missing ahead of John's Island there, but he projects to be the main speed in this race.  #8 Round has the upside, and he has flashed ability in his two career starts, but he has missed some time since his maiden win, and he did not make the work tab at all in August.
Selections:  3-5-2-8
Race 3:  The experienced runners come mostly from one direction in this spot, that being the 1st race from August 30th at Saratoga, and an eventful 8.5 furlongs that was.  #7 Congrats to Ken and #6 Gustnado had the best placings in there, but they also had two of the better trips in the race.  #2 Epsilon took money and was buried in traffic with nowhere to run late, while #5 Vespers At Eight took no money, and raced greenly early before getting hemmed in and trying to bump his way clear in the stretch.
The other experienced runner is #3 King of New York, and he has run well twice while settling for 2nd best both times.  
Selections:  2-5-3-6
Race 4:  Grade 2 Kelso goes straight through recent Grade 1 Woodward winner #7 Itsmyluckyday, who figures a short-priced favorite.  He has been perfectly handled since returning from serious injury this year, and he has rewarded his connections with a series of top-flight performances this summer.  Most likely upsetter may be #2 Golden Ticket, who is at his best in these one-turn miles. He has run fast enough in the past to give the favorite a scare.  #4 River Rocks has talent, but he's been lucky to get loose on the lead in pair of recent big figure wins, and this is his toughest test to date by a wide margin.
Selections:  7-2-4-5
Race 5:  Grade 1 Beldame lacks a true standout, which casts the multiple Grade 1 winning 3yo #3 Stopchargingmaria in the role of favorite.  She's good and she has the credentials to be favored in this field, but she's not very fast, and she is far from the scariest favorite we've ever seen.  We'll go against her with #2 Toasting, who admittedly is pushing it over this 9-furlong trip. She has been in good form, and she ran a big race over this distance at the end of last year.  We have never been particular fans of #5 Fiftyshadesofhay, but she fits in a race like this one and is a must-use for us. 
Selections:  2-5-3-4
Race 6:  #12 Upgrade is something of a 7-furlong specialist, winning 4 of his last 7 over this distance, whether on turf or synthetic, and missing by a nose in one of the losses.  Racing at the level where he fits at this stage of the game.  #3 Compliance Officer also figures to appreciate this cut-back in distance, and he gets some much needed class relief, as well, after banging heads with the top NY-bred turf horses in training over the past few years.  #9 Night Officer was unlucky when blowing the break vs. a few of these last time, and he can factor with a clean trip.  #6 Ragtime is interesting switching to grass for the first time with some pedigree (dam is a half to Grade 1 turf horse Dancing Forever), and he will turn back in distance as well.
Selections:  12-3-9-6
Race 7:  Excellent running of the Grade 1 Flower Bowl kicks off all Grade 1 Pick 4.  We're siding with the runners exiting the Grade 2 Ballston Spa last month at Saratoga.  #4 Strathnaver seems to be a mare who needs firm ground to be at her best, but she's been back in top form this cycle and doesn't figure to struggle with the distance based on first two starts in this country, both convincing wins going longer.  #1 Abaco outfinished Strathnaver to notch well-deserved Grade 2 win in the Ballston Spa.  Has run big in each of her last two starts and would be a deserving Grade 1 winner.  #9 Stephanie's Kitten may be the horse to beat in this spot off her strong 2nd in the Beverly D.  Has now come running too late in each of her last three starts. 
Selections: 4-1-9-7
Race 8:  
Speed-laden Vosburgh goes through dual Grade 1 winner #1 Palace.  He has been in terrific form since returning from a layoff in early June, and he projects for a nice trip away from a fast pace.  #2 Coup de Grace is a 3yo facing elders, but he's a closing sprinter who projects for a perfect set-up in this spot after enduring a tough trip in the King's Bishop.  He appears to be a very difficult horse to ride, so we'll take it as a positive that Kerwin Clark is scheduled to come in for the mount.  #4 Salutos Amigos has begun to deliver on early promise since switching to this barn, and he exits a dead-game try chasing a loose-on-the-lead River Rocks without relenting last time. 
Selections:  2-1-4-6
Race 9:  #5 Main Sequence has impressed in pair of narrow yet impressive wins since arriving stateside for a top trainer.  Has had the benefit of solid paces in both, which is not the expected scenario here, but he's the horse to beat.  Chad Brown sends a strong coupling of #1 Big Blue Kitten and #1A Real Solution.  We prefer the former, who has returned in fine form this summer and gets this distance effectively.  #3 Imagining projects for a more comfortable trip this time after being pushed along on a solid pace when run down by Main Sequence in the Sword Dancer.  He may be a little better off going shorter, but he's dangerous in here if able to relax early.
Selections:  3-1-5-2
Race 10:  Fun edition of the Grade 1 $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup drew a field of 12.  With enough speed signed on to ensure that horse to beat #11 Moreno is kept honest, we'll try to get #4 Zivo to repeat his fast-closing win over that rival in the Suburban over this track and trip back in July.  Zivo has been in terrific form for Chad Brown, and his 114 Late Pace rating clearly tops the field.  
3yos #3 Wicked Strong, #8 Tonalist and #10 V. E. Day are all players in here, and while we are against the latter, we will be using the other two.
Selections:  4-11-8-3
Race 11:  #3 Innovation Economy faces tough distance stretch-out in second start back as a 3yo, but he has the pedigree to handle it (100 Breeding Rating), being from the family of distance-loving turf millionaires Dynaforce and Cetewayo.  He was impressive when flying home as an overlooked runner in his debut, and was up against a tough pace scenario in his first start back.   #8 Trecastle has been OK on turf from the start and has a one-paced style that is suited to these longer races.  Horse to beat is the classy old #4 Grand Rapport.  He has been back in solid form on turf this year and has really taken to distance racing lately.
Selections:  3-8-4-12

TimeformUS Analysis for September 26

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Friday September 26th Racing at Belmont Park
Race 1:  Opener shapes up as a battle between dropdowns #1 Celebrated Talent and #7 Battled.  Battled is faster, having posted back-to-back TFUS Speed Figures of 100 and 103 in December and February, and he projects to be the controlling speed from his outside post.  He also has more questions to answer as he makes his first start back from a 174-day layoff with a three-week gap showing in his published works (as of this writing).  Celebrated Talent drops down for McLaughlin (97 rating going from ALW to CLM races) while making his third start back from a layoff (99 rating).  He hasn't run as fast as Battled, but he has the recency and is this field's lone entrant with a win over this 7-furlong distance.
Selections:  1-7-2-3
Race 2:  #7 Storm Pursuit has won all three career starts on dirt, and he did all the work while dueling the pace last time and was still able to hold off #4 Take Down Two at the end.  Projects to be the controlling speed in this race.  #3 Non Stop gets a pass for his last start, when racing wide and away from the pace over a Saratoga main track that was heavily slanted toward speed (denoted by the Race Rating box shaded in dark red).  Best race makes him very tough in here, if he can run it.  #5 Bemata took advantage of a wicked pace duel when rallying for 2nd last time.  New trainer gets perfect 100 rating with runners second off the claim, but he doesn't figure to have the same kind of set-up in this spot.
Selections:  7-3-5-1
Race 3:  #3 J to the Croft earned a 93 TFUS Speed Figure for his well-deserved win two starts back, and that is the top turf figure in the field.  Has the positional speed to avoid being compromised by dynamics, and may still have some upside.  #6 Request has reached something of a pivotal race in just his 5th career start.  He has run better than it may appear in pair of losses to begin his 3yo campaign, and he may be set to break through in his third start off the layoff.  Expected dynamics favor J to the Croft (Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead), but Request owns the top Late Pace Rating in the field.  
Selections:  3-6-5-4
Race 4:  #11 Taghleeb made promising turf debut last time when finishing up strongly after being held up in two different spots through the final turn.  Gets a positive rider change for this and can benefit from the projected fast pace, should it develop.  #1 Coordinate also made his turf debut in that race on August 31st, and he took a tough DQ when best at a huge price in that spot.  He's exposed now, and is coupled with a very well-bred #1A Melville (89 Breeding Rating for turf routes), so you'll be taking a much shorter price if you want to try him again.  #8 Veya shaped with a positive profile according to Timeform analysts in Europe, and he is eligible to come forward in his 3yo debut after running well in pair of starts once arriving stateside last year.  #2 Private Label switches to turf for 3yo debut and may improve quickly based on 89 Breeding Rating for turf routes.  
Selections:  11-1/1A-8-2
Race 5:  #3 Patty and Nooche has needed pace out in front of him in order to produce his best effort, and he may not have very much of it in this spot (Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead), but he's been facing tougher fields than this since dropped in class and is unlikely to find a better spot than this one.  #9 Perfect Disco needed 116 days between his strong effort with a 91 TFUS Speed Figure on May 18th and his dismal effort last time, and he was a vet scratch in the interim, so we'll take it as a good sign that he is entered back in just 15 days.  Performance like that one two races back makes him close to a sure thing in this field.  #5 Artemus Paperboy was much best over a muddy track vs. $20k maiden claimers last time, and he is entered back at the right level for trainer off to a strong start here.
Selections:  3-9-5-1
Race 6:  All things considered, #11 Unbridled Sonya ran quite well first time out when trying wide run from off the pace on a day when speed was dominating the proceedings on the Saratoga main track.  Picks up Rosario for the switch to grass, and she has a strong Breeding Rating of 96 for turf sprints.  #5 Lismore debuts for a dangerous trainer, and her dam is a sister to Interactif, who won multiple graded stakes races on grass.  #10 Stormy Sky chased a fast pace and tired in main track debut, and she also has enough pedigree to handle a switch over to turf sprints (86 rating).  #1 Giant Crystal is a half to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner Gemologist but debuts on turf.   
Selections:  11-5-10-1
Race 7:  #8 Liam's Map made a promising debut when keeping after a fast pace throughout and coming away second-best to a promising runner in Three Alarm Fire.  Going to be tough in here if running as well, or perhaps even better, with that experience under his belt.  #3 Flat Jack has the experience, which is going to begin working against him soon, and has run fast enough to win a race like this one more than once.  More distance may not suit him based on lone route try at Delaware back in June vs. a field rated at just 81.  #2 Marble Falls and #7 Lucid are second-time starters who were behind Liam's Map first time out, but they both hail from barns that do better racing their horses into form.  
Selections:  8-3-7-2
Race 8:  #3 Spun Silky has run well throughout 2014 without winning, and that was never more true than at Laurel last time, when she did very well to finish as close as she did after almost going down on the far turn.  May be up against it in this field, which is lacking much in the way of pace, but she deserves another chance.  We have long felt that #4 Hillhouse High is at her best when able to rate back and make one run, as evidenced by her most recent race when closing gamely in stakes company.  Turn-back figures to allow her to rate and run, as she did in much-the-best score three starts back.  #7 Paddle Board blew away a next-out winner when switched over to try turf for the first time at Laurel, and she has the best early speed in this field.  May be this good.  #1 More Than Faith is a true wildcard in this race, shipping over from Australia for a top trainer, and she will have lasix for the first time on Friday. 
Selections:  3-4-7-1
Race 9:  Good spot to try a new face, and #1 La Reverie fits the bill while dropping down in class and switching to grass as a half-sister to a pair of turf winners.  #3 Chrissy Girl took a run up the inside and flattened late last time, and is now third back from a long layoff for a top barn.  Not much to separate (or recommend) the other experienced runners in the field, so we would only suggest avoiding the shorter prices.  
Selections:  1-3-4-11