Thursday, October 02, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Friday October 3rd
Race 1: #5 Gold Shield took money first-time out but caught an inside-speed-favoring track and was never involved in the proceedings. $1 million colt likely has more to offer, and returns with lasix on. #1 Wild Dynaformer ran into the impressive Daredevil over a muddy track in his debut and was never a factor after breaking slowly and racing wide. Will also get lasix for the first time, and deserves a few more chances. #3 Global Warrior is a half to a pair of multiple winners out of a dam who is a sister to a multiple graded stakes winning millionaire on dirt.
Race 2: Interested to see what we get from #5 Herd Mentality, who turned things around in a big way in blowout win last time. Similar effort makes him tough, but he's stepping way up in class (82 Race Rating last time, 92 today). #1A Classic Salsa gets a pass for most recent race, in which he was slammed hard after stumbling at the break and then endured more bumping on the backstretch before having to steady hard. He was pulled up before reaching the stretch in that spot. Form in NY prior to the short layoff makes him competitive and he's nicely drawn on the outside. #2B Indy Sea is second off the claim (98 Trainer Rating) for Rudy after being forced to chase a loose-on-the-lead winner last time. Best race makes him competitive in this field.
Race 3: With the expected scratch of projected lone speed #2 Island Candy (just raced on Wednesday), there is no confirmed frontrunner left in this field. We'll see who gets aggressive, though it may be #5 Little Gidding, who picks up a 7-lb. bug rider, and who was up on the pace and ahead of several of these horses two back. She couldn't see out the 7 furlongs that day but goes a bit shorter here, and she was in way too tough last time. #3 Da Wildcat Girl kept up close and came gamely to cut down Little Gidding at Saratoga. She's been going well since being brought back from a layoff in May and feels like the horse to beat. #6 Ocean Boulevard cuts back to a sprint after defeating a weak field over a mile last time. Bodes well for her that she was able to keep up with the pace in that race.
Race 4: #1 Lucky Leroy Brown is the experienced runner with the best form, and he may appreciate this slight class relief after chasing Vision Perfect (returned to run 2nd in Grade 3 Pilgrim last week) home last month. #5 Ready Strike gets a solid Breeding Rating of 91 for turf routes, and his trainer can win with first-time starters. From the female family of J P's Gusto, who never ran on turf but was a Grade 1 winner on synthetic. #8 Fuhrious Warrior also pulls a 91 Breeding Rating as a half to the multiple graded stakes winning Imperialism and to White Beauty, who won 10 times on turf in her career, including several stakes.
Race 5: #7 Bossanova Lady drops back in with restricted claiming company after finding allowance foes too tough last time. Is at her best sprinting, whether it be turf or dirt, and she has enough speed to land a tracking spot up close in this field. #2 Fire Ship has improved since being switched over to turf and dropped in class. Has speed from an inside post, and trainer gets a strong rating of 94 with last-out winners. #6 Malibu Queen is a good fit in this field, but is becoming tough to take on top, and has already had 8 cracks at this two-life claiming condition.
Race 6: #2 Mumtaazah made a promising debut with a 94 TFUS Speed Figure back in November. She returned from a layoff at Saratoga and could not get involved after a slow start. Giving her one more chance in likely spot if she can get back to something more like that first one. #4 Glacken's Gift also made a promising debut when racing on gamely from behind a moderate pace. Been a year since that effort, and she'll return with lasix on. Firster #3 Majestic Empire shows up with some quick works for a top trainer. #7 True Romance debuts for a trainer pulling a lowly 34 rating with first-time starters, but she has a strong pedigree rating of 93 for dirt sprints. #9 Blooper debuts for Michelle Nevin, who won with a couple of first-time starters at Saratoga this year, and her dam has dropped four prior foals, all of them winners.
Race 7: #4 Dighton hasn't run his best race since the trainer change, but he was in career-best form in NY prior to that, and he has a versatile running style that will allow his rider options. #8 Power World has run some races that would be too much for these horses, and he has speed in a race projected to favor that running style. McPeek doesn't reach in very often, but he's won right back with three of the last ten horses he's claimed. #5 Doubledown Again doesn't appreciate off-going, which he faced at Saratoga last time, but he has some pace at his disposal, and his new trainer gets a 96 rating first off the claim.
Race 8: #1 Princess Mara is back to a better distance for this after trying longer routes. Nine-time winner has been facing much tougher than this all summer, and she is dangerous in this field with one of her good races. #4 Miz Owell was in too tough vs. Grade 1 winners Dayatthespa and Discreet Marq last time, but she's been holding good form all year at around this level, and there appears to be enough pace entered in this race to help her late run. #10 Chrysolite is lightly raced and coming along nicely for an underrated trainer. Just missed last time with a new top TFUS Speed Figure.
Race 9: #2 Hush Now was hustled away from the gate trying for the lead in her well-bet debut, but could only chase a fast pace early before giving way. May be fastest, and much more dangerous, in this field. #6 Sandra and #5 Majestic Jessica debuted in the same race last month and settled for minor awards in a race that found the 1-2 finishers up on the pace throughout. We'll expect them to come forward here in a field loaded with first-time starters. #8 Tricky Zippy is a half to Eye Luv Lulu, a talented runner for these connections who has made almost $200k so far, and she's drawn well on the outside for her debut. #3 Madoo starts for a trainer who does excellent work with young horses, and she's a half to Cribnote, who was a good 2yo for this trainer a few years ago.