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TimeformUS Race Analysis

 

 

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Analysis for Sunday at Belmont

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

 
TimeformUS Sunday June 15th Analysis
 
Race 1:  #2 Bella Castani is a handful to ride, but has some ability; perhaps cutting back to this shorter distance will allow her to settle better.  #3 Quay is second back from a short rest and has done little wrong to this point.  #9 Good So Far is third off the layoff for Clement, and has turf-sprint form from France that makes her competitive.
Selections:  2-3-9-8
 
Race 2:  #2 Bambisfrostyracer dropped down for last start and was shuffled out to last through the turn, losing his best chance; this is an easier spot.  
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#4 Pepi's Find improved with the switch to dirt last time, and will be competitive in this spot with a similar effort.  #1 No Nukes has had too many chances, but he was shut off while trying to challenge the leaders two back, and was stuck chasing lone speed Scare City last time. 
Selections:  2-4-1-8
 
Race 3:  #2 Cherubim and #3 River Rocks are talented new faces to NY, each with efforts out of town that will make him tough in this spot.  Cherubim has the edge on early pace ratings, which may put him on a clear early lead, but River Rocks starts for a trainer sporting a near perfect rating with horses running out of his barn for the first time (99, with limited sample size). 
Selections: 2-3-1A-4
 
Race 4:  #9 Saucon Valley survived after speeding clear early in off-the-turf debut, and is entered back on the surface she figures more comfortable with; trainer wins frequently with last-out maiden winners.  #2 Image of Noon closed hard and came up just short off the layoff; moves inside, needs a little pace.  #4 Fantastic Eyes is off the layoff and perhaps a little cheap, but she's a solid turf sprinter and will be running at the end.
Selections:  9-2-4-1A
 
Race 5:  Good spot for #1 Arc Above, who handles distance and is racing at the proper level for streaking trainer.  #4 Manchurian High enters here off a solid win out of town, and he's run well over this trip in the past.  #5 Syros arrives for dangerous ship-in trainer and figures to have plenty of bottom coming off the jumps; picks up Lezcano.
Selections:  1-4-5-3
 
Race 6:  #7 Matching Skies doesn't care for a wet track, so we'll forgive her two most recent efforts; perfectly drawn outside in race that has plenty of speed signed on.  #1 Your Move sped away on a too-fast pace and wilted late in the slop last time; may prove tougher to catch over fast track.  New face #3 Justalittleloopy is dropping off the layoff after compiling solid record in California; unknown on dirt, though we worry more about the surface switch the other way. 
Selections: 7-1-3-5
 
Race 7:  #7 Vicki's Dancer finished very well to be second to stakes repeater Free as a Bird last time; scratched from tougher spot last week to await this.  
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#10 Double the Energy is a dangerous speed in a race lacking much of same, and #2 Unbelievable Dream is back in with fellow NY-breds for the first time since impressive debut win as a 2yo.
Selections:  7-10-2-4
 
Race 8:  #2 Antonia Autumn was beginning to deliver on her ample potential in Florida over the winter before a setback forced her to miss some time; tough spot for her return, but she fits with these on her best.  #6 Gathering endured tough trip two back at Keeneland and then ran into stakes-bound Filimbi here last time; has looked very good at times.  #1 Caroline Thomas has acquitted herself well in graded stakes company over the past several starts; doesn't get as much class relief as she might have expected entering this spot. 
Selections:  2-6-1-4
 
Race 9:  #3 Miz Lee has come up short in first three starts, but has run well in all three and figures tough with typical effort.  #1 Forensic didn't handle mud that well last time, but she has also run well on grass without winning, and is all upside.  #5 Coronette ran well in Saratoga debut in race that featured a walking pace, and is eligible to be much improved with natural development.
Selections:  3-1-5-11
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TimeformUS Analysis for June 14th

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Saturday June 14th at Belmont
 
Race 1:  ML favorite #2 Brother Ralphie is a tough call.  On the one hand, he is lightly raced and facing a nondescript group, and he earned one of the better recent speed figures in the field for his debut win.  On the other hand, he was with a gold rail all the way in that win, drops way down in class without being given much of a chance by his new connections, and has to stretch out in distance.  We have too many questions to take him as the favorite, and will instead go to #5 Sunnyinseabrook on top, as he is dropped back into a realistic spot for the first time since demolishing a weak field of maiden claimers last November.
 
Selections:  5-2-3-4
 
 
Race 2:  #1 Lofty Heart has raced himself into shape after an extended layoff, posting back-to-back convincing wins at Gulfstream and Keeneland, and then failing to find room in the stretch in strong allowance field last time.  
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#9 Animal Style is the horse to beat despite being held off at this level last time; handles give in the ground, should that be the case on Saturday.  #7 Golden Itiz has ability and ran a big race in first start for Jacobson back in April; handles all surfaces, but has never sprinted on grass.
 
Race 2:  1-9-7-5
 
 
Race 3:  #6 Love the Breeding ships in for a dangerous trainer after winning three of four right off the claim, and she figures to handle the distance of this race better than her main rival, #4 Rosie My Way.  The latter just won a race around two turns at Monmouth, but she's better as a sprinter.  #3 Go Olivia Go was unlucky when caught in stretch traffic on turf last time, and should be competitive in here.
 
Selections:  6-3-4-1
 
 
Race 4:  #2 Liatris was impressive running over favored rival in the stretch despite obvious greenness; may have a tougher time of it chasing #3 Lindy, who sped away from several next-out winners at Presque Isle, but we were impressed enough with her debut to take Liatris here.  We suppose that the Pletcher firster #6 Fashion Alert could be one of his good ones as she debuts in stakes company, but each of the top 2 have already run well enough to make this a tough spot.
 
Selections:  2-3-6-4
 
 
Race 5:  #9 Birchwood Road is competitive with his best race here, and we like him to improve second off the layoff after taking a wide run at the lead through the turn last time.  #7 Elroi is improved as a 4yo, and failed to work out the cleanest of runs in either start since strong maiden win off the layoff; feels like the horse to beat.  #4 Toy Cannon was blocked in the stretch in first start off the layoff, but also had a pace to close into, and he has come up just short one time too many.
 
Selections:  9-7-4-1
 
 
Race 6:  We liked what we saw from #1 Infinite Magic as a 3yo, and are interested to see how he returns from the layoff; drew well on the inside for this distance on the inner.  #2 General Logan also impressed in spots last season, and also has a layoff to deal with, and these two face some solid older rivals.  Of those, we prefer #3 Swift Warrior, who had little chance the way the Fort Marcy was run, and handles this trip.
 
Selections:  1-2-3-7
 
 
Race 7:  #2 Bake Shop takes a big drop in class, but so do a few others in here, and he projects to be hooked up on a fast pace, so we'll look elsewhere.
 
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#6 Tug of War may not be able to run competitively anymore, but he's been in very tough since his last win back in December 2012, including that last one, which was a super-tough open $25k claimer; one final chance. #7 Pretension has also been facing much tougher, and switches from turf to dirt for this.
 
Selections:  6-7-2-5
 
 
Race 8:  #4 My Jopia has done little wrong on turf, holding her own vs. solid open company rivals, and winning 2-of-3 with NY-breds; has a start under her belt this year for trainer off to good start here.  #8 One Time Only may be the horse to beat as she ships in to face NY-breds for the first time, but these horses are often badly overbet, and there are some good horses in here.  #2 Atlantic's Smile is off the layoff, and may not want to tussle with One Time Only early, but she can run and sprinting is her game.
 
Selections:  4-8-2-5
 
 
Race 9:  Wide-open turf sprint is open to several different horses, and may just come down to trips.  We are big fans of #4 Barrel of Love, who held his form in Tampa over the winter and is capable of competing with these despite his lack of similar credentials; taking him at what should be a square price.  #2B Strong Impact remains in form as an 8yo, handles this trip, and is dead game; think he's the horse to beat in here.  #9 West Hills Giant is another price to consider, as he has plenty of room to improve, but he had better if he's going to compete with horses like these.
 
Selections:  4-2B-9-3
 
 
Race 10:  #11 Alabaster City made a promising run despite having debut rained off turf; a similar run on turf, which he is bred for, makes him tough.  #1 Blue Chips Only was well-backed in Saratoga debut, now returns on grass, a surface over which his dam was a three-time winner.  #8 Spa City Treasure is a 5yo maiden with only two starts, but he's run okay, and this will be his first start with NY-breds.
 
Selections:  11-1-8-12
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for June 13

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Friday, June 13
 
Race 1:  Be interesting to see how they bet the opener, as Pletcher saddles two and both are eligible to be runners.  #1 Nonna's Boy is by Distorted Humor and is from the family of Cairo Prince, and #2 Stanford, who brought $550k after working 9.4 at Barrett's March, is from the female family of Johannesburg and Tale of the Cat.  #3 Skerkis is bred for speed on both sides of his pedigree, and sharp trainer Michael Mareina also saddles a pair, including the Blame colt #5 Blame It On Chris, who is from the family of Preakness winner Prairie Bayou.  
 
Selections:  2-1-3-5
 
 
Race 2:  The ageless #7 Awakino Cat has won two in a row at age nine, including his NY return last time in convincing fashion over a stronger overall field than this one.  #1 Non Stop is logical, and was in excellent form over the winter, but he may be tailing off now after fading behind the top one last time, so we'll go to a couple of longer prices underneath.  #2 Fan Base was an interesting claim by Michael Dubb and co. in March and was turned over to Marcus Vitali, and he did a ton of racing on a contested pace going longer last time.  #3 Glory Game was in good form over synthetic when claimed at the end of last year, but hasn't been seen since.  
 
Selections:  7-2-1-3
 
 
Race 3:  No one to trust in maiden claiming field full of disappointments, so we'll put biggest dropper #7 Seldom Seen Slim on top, though without much conviction.  #6 Sampson County has layover back races to get to, but he's had nothing to offer since dropped down; interesting that Velazquez sticks despite claim.
 
Selections:  7-6-4-5
 
 
Race 4:  #10 Place Card returns after a 219 day layoff as a 3yo sprinting; trainer Graham Motion has a rating of 94 with similar spacing.  She made an impressive debut over shorter distance on synthetic behind subsequent graded stakes winner Aurelia's Belle; no chance in lone turf try in race that held together up front.  
 
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#3 Skipping switches to grass with a trainer change to the streaking Clement, and she is a half-sister to a pair of multiple turf winners, including Meribel, who earned over $520k; has dangerous speed.  #6 Pedal Princess was off slowly and outrun early but closest at the finish in well-bet debut; has big pedigree to live up to and attracts Castellano for this.  
 
Selections:  10-3-6-4
 
 
Race 5:  #5 Bounty Pink has been on a roll with regular racing this year, and enters here off back-to-back blowout wins; this field is tougher, but only by degrees.  #2 Ms. Bird Watch has been back in form at Finger Lakes, and she's managed to run her race on this circuit in the past.  #3 Guayana ran better when shipped out of town off the claim last time; hard to trust after no-show performance at short price when brought to NY in April.
 
Selections:  5-2-3-7
 
 
Race 6:   #3 Devious Maddy pegged at shortest of ML prices with acceptable form in suspect field, but we'll give #5 Piccolo Flats one more chance on grass, as she was within range vs. a much better field last time.  Difficult to endorse the others.
 
Selections:  5-3-6-7
 
 
Race 7:  Something's gotta give in turf sprint loaded with speed types and projected to be run at fast pace.  
 
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We'll try #1 Slamarama, who lost all chance at the break off the layoff in a super-tough $40k claimer, and figures to be gunning off the break; maybe he can discourage the other speeds early.  #4 Ziptronic drops out of that same $40k race, and has proven capable of tracking a pace in the past.  #6 Luigi P is an infrequent winner, but fits well here with his best race, and wouldn't mind seeing a contested pace develop.  #10 Fast Time gave way after getting hooked into a duel vs. $50k claimers last time; won at this level here opening weekend, but this is a tougher crew for the price.  
 
Selections:1-4-6-10
 
 
Race 8:  #5 Touchofstarquality has plenty of potential, and he was impressive in overcoming pace scenario in NY return last time; will need to step up a bit vs. this hard-hitting crew, but appears plenty capable of doing so.  
 
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#1 Mighty Ian has been in strong form for sharp connections, and is paired with #1A Abraham, whom we aren't big fans of, but who can be given a chance to rebound in second start back from the layoff.  #4 Groomedforvictory is better going shorter, so picking up a little extra ground may not suit him, but he was sharp last time.  
 
Selections:  5-1-1A-4
 
 
Race 9:  Difficult to go against #6 Point Roll, who was impressive in burying maidens last time, and comes back in next logical spot.  #5 Tapitation did not get a good trip or ride in turf debut last month, and did well to finish second-best in there.  #4 Analysis stepped up with distance off the layoff, and can be given the chance to improve further for a good trainer, though he'll have to.
 
Selections:  6-5-4-7
 
 
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TimeformUS Belmont Analysis June 12

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis For Belmont's Thursday June 12th Racing
 
Race 1:  #5 South Sound figures to go heavily favored in the opener, as her speed figures on dirt in California give her a decided edge on her competition; makes first start for the sharp Jason Servis, who gets strong ratings off the claim (100) and switching from turf to dirt (99), and Pace Projector puts her in favorable position on the early lead.  
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#1 Lady Luciano drops with a positive trainer change to Rudy Rodriguez, and #7 Da Wildcat Girl ran well off the layoff vs. better horses last time, but the favorite is tough to stand strongly against.
 
Selections:  5-1-7-4
 
 
Race 2:  Have to give #5 Zafiro Azul one more chance on grass, as she finished with interest after getting outrun in her debut last year, and then was caught up in a lot of traffic when returned to turf last time; seems a good spot if she just needs a clean trip.  #2 Aviendra is first back from the layoff and is in for a tag for the first time on grass after facing much tougher than this last year; new trainer enlists Rosario.  #6 Kevin's Steel isn't impossible at a price after contesting the  pace in a race that went to closers last time; drops and projects to have an easier time of it early in here.  #7 Nanoon starts for a trainer who doesn't have a history with first-time starters, but she has some pedigree as a half to Front, who has won five times on grass and banked over $245k on that surface, so far.
 
Selections:  5-2-6-7
 
 
Race 3:
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#4 Sidearm is a closer with the top late pace rating in the field by a clear margin; he has had some trouble finding the winner's circle since his debut last summer, and Pace Projector indicates that he may be up against it once again, but we figure that there is a good enough chance that #1 Shot to Win shows speed from the rail, and he has enough of it to keep ML favorite #6 Station Chief occupied up there.  If they get hooked up early, it figures to help Sidearm most, and he ran well last week when chasing odds-on Baffert ship-in Doctor Dempsey.  
 
Selections:  4-6-1-3
 
 
Race 4:  #4 Wing Foot endured a disastrous trip in Keeneland debut in April and never had a chance to run.  Well-connected colt has a big pedigree, being a brother to three stakes winners in Great Britain, including Group 1 winner Lucarno, who banked over $1 million.  There was little separating #3 Hines, #6 Sheldon and #10 Boss Man at the finish when they ran this race over good turf here last month, and they all figure to be contenders once again.  
 
Selections:  4-3-6-10
 
 
Race 5:  One final chance for #2 Loomin' Lori Lou, who gave futile chase to the talented Isabelle when going down to defeat for the fourth straight time at odds of 5/2 or less; drops down for the first time, and, in her defense, she has faced some fast NY-bred fillies to this point.  #6 Sheethots also drops down, and she'll go turf-to-dirt, as well; finished just a head behind the top one when they met back in March.  #5 Kicken Livi gave way badly in her Saratoga debut after taking some money and returns for the first time since then with some class relief; trainer off to good start here.
 
Selections:  2-6-5-3
 
 
Race 6:  One-mile distance may be the equalizer, as both #6 Apex and #7 Real Estate Rich come here in strong form but are questionable on the stretch-out to this distance.  We'll use them, but will take returnee #5 Sinorice on top, as he will have no issue with the trip, and his best race will make him extremely tough.
 
Selections:  5-7-6-1
 
 
Race 7:  Win or lose, we have zero interest in betting any money on either of the two ML favorites, #7 Easy Living or #2 The Lady Says Yes, in this spot, which opens things up a bit.  #8 G Note has run very well in pair of recent turf starts despite failing to get the best of it trip-wise either time; could argue that she would have beaten a stronger field than this one last time but for being forced to move too early to contest the pace. 2014-06-11_11-58-24r7
 
 #3 Chrysolite got a favorable pace setup and took advantage when overpowering maidens last time, but she has some ability and is on the way up.  #6 Milkyyourway has also run well in her two most recent starts and deserves consideration, though she took advantage of a softened-up G Note when second-best last time.
 
Selections:  8-3-6-1A
 
 
 
Race 8:  Not easy to separate the contenders in this solid feature, but #2 Bemata got the turn-back that he needed last time (he is now 5-for-9 sprinting on dirt in his career, and 0-for-10 doing anything else), and had an easy time closing that field down once clear of traffic in the stretch; taking him right back.  #3 Ithastobegeorge is also at his best sprinting, so the turn-back here works, and his two most recent sprint efforts were both good ones.  Tough call on #1A Johannesburg Smile, who just hasn't been sharp since claimed for $100k out of his last win, which came over a year and a half ago, but he was up against it last time vs. a good field in a race that featured an uncompetitive pace; being coupled with #1 Start Jumping won't help his price, and we'd want a good one in order to give him a second look.  
 
Selections:   2-3-1A-5
 
 
Race 9:  #3 Four Directions is an unknown on grass, but he's quite a bit better than he looks on dirt after catching a couple of tough trips recently and will likely be enough of a price to be hard to resist; obviously like him more if we're off the grass.  #6 Dowse's Beach is very much the horse to beat, making 3yo debut after acquitting himself well as a juvenile; should be favored in this spot.  #1A Shimba is a firster from Clement, who has been remarkable with runners debuting in turf routes recently, though he's been human at Belmont, where he is 1 for his last 11.  #7 Vischer Ferry landed in some tough spots facing open company at Gulfstream, and switches to turf with some pedigree for the switch.
 
Selections:  3-6-1A-7
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