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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for September 14

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont on Sunday September 14th

Race 1:  Competitive but compact group of five fillies will sprint in the opener.  Pace Projector favors the runners up close, but we'll hope that #5 Equilateral can use her late pace advantage (Late Pace rating of 94 is far superior to her rivals) to overcome the dynamics.  She has sprinted only once in her career, and that came over a muddy, sealed track in her debut, but she impressed that day in posting a 100 TFUS Speed Figure win.  Like her turning back to a sprint for the first time since then after failing to take to turf at Saratoga.  #4 Shayjolie has run speed figures of 98-95-97 on dirt and may play out to be her main rival.  #3 Snowbell has been at her best at Saratoga so far, and she exits a much-the-best win up there last month with a new top figure.  This is tougher. 
Selections:  5-4-3-2
Race 2:  Lone runner with experience in this $75k maiden claimer for 2yo fillies is #1 Sunnysammi.  She showed good speed in that debut to make a fast pace and bring a clear lead into the stretch before stopping suddenly.  Speed like that is always dangerous in a race like this, but she'll need to finish this time.  Of the firsters, most interesting to us is #7 May Flowers.  She seems to be entered at the right level after bringing $70k in April (she worked two furlongs in 21 flat), and her dam is a half-sister to graded stakes winning sprinters Apriority and Bahamian Squall.  #6 Betamerica Babe is bred for speed on both sides of her pedigree (90 rating for dirt sprints) and is a half to the Grade 2 winning 2yo Vexor.  #4 Grandpa's Princess has good works and is the first foal from her dam, who is a sister to the Grade 1 winning sprinter Friendly Michelle. 
Selections:  7-6-1-4
Race 3:  #3 Brilliant Jewel is the horse to beat, but that's been said more than once before, and she continues to run to her competition.  We can't take her, and will instead try #5 Remarkable.  Remarkable dueled on a fast pace over an off track in her debut and tired in the stretch.  Similar show of speed in this field could make her tough.
Clement saddles two first-time starters in #2 Royale Rose and #4 Savvy Sassy, and they both have something to recommend them.  Royale Rose (100 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints) is a half-sister to three graded stakes winners, including Woke up Dreamin, who won multiple Grade 2s sprinting on dirt.  Savvy Sassy is a half to the multiple graded stakes winner Southdale, who did his damage over synthetic at Woodbine. 
Selections:  5-3-2-4
Race 4:  Top NY-bred turf horses #3 Lubash, #4 Kharafa and #7 King Kreesa will go at it again in the $125k Ashley T. Cole over 1 1/8 miles.  King Kreesa has gotten the best of his hard-hitting rivals recently, and it was nice to see him return from the layoff in fine form upstate.  His margin for error is pretty slim, but he's the one to beat, and his speed is a valuable asset over this trip on the inner turf.  Kharafa threw in a bit of a clunker at Saratoga last time, but he's better than that.  Defending champ loves this track and can pull the right trip.  Lubash hits hard every time and just gave dead-game chase to King Kreesa at Saratoga.  
Selections:  7-4-3-5
Race 5:  #6 Make It Gold was up against it when wired by Glowing Ember two back, and he ran very well despite an impossible trip behind repeater Shining Copper last time.  Enough speed signed on to this race for him to rate and run.  #9 Tiz Yankee would have won last time but for his rider losing an iron in deep stretch while on a clear lead.  Put up 93 TFUS Speed Figures for each of last two turf starts, but may have to deal with #12 Wind of Bosphorus early.  That one drops back down in class after trying a much tougher spot first off the claim.
Selections:  6-12-9-5
Race 6:  #2 Summer Sunset is a question mark in current form, but he's dropping down in class here after facing much tougher in first three starts off the long layoff, and he has back form to get to that makes him very tough.  
#5 Street Shark has brought improved form to NY, and he impressed when rolling into a fast pace off the re-claim on turf upstate.  #3 Coolusive also drops after facing tougher since the claim back in May.  Needs to re-find his good form to be competitive.  We're against the Jacobson entry of #1 Be Bullish and #1A Back Forty if they both go, but this barn has been heating up and we could give Back Forty another go if he starts alone.  He had a perfect trip when winning easily on the drop last time, but is another with faster back races to get to.
Selections:  2-5-3-1A
Race 7:  #8 Throckmorton is everyone's trip horse from the Saratoga meet, so don't expect much value, but his trouble was legitimate and he ran very well despite it.  #4 Day Six was just behind #6 King of Bay when they met at Saratoga, but he got out from behind horses later and was closing gamely at the end.  Neither of them was flattered by the performance of Breakeven Analysis on Saturday.  #9 Kato also ran into traffic behind Throckmorton on July 30th, but he's had prior chances that fail to inspire.
Selections:  8-4-5-9
Race 8:  #11 Old Harbor gets the right turn-back here after trying two turns upstate in last two starts.  Better fit with these horses and at this distance, and her only start over 7 furlongs resulted in an impressive score.  #4 Image of Noon has also been at her best in these elongated one-turn races at Belmont, and she has come back in improved form as a 4yo.  #5 One Time Only is logical with her versatility and with the cut-back in distance, and she has run several recent TFUS Speed Figures in the 90s, a level most of her competition has not been able to attain on grass to this point.  #2 My Jopia has run some of the fastest turf races in the field and is a threat if she can get back to that level in this spot.  
Selections:  11-4-5-2
Race 9:  #6 Effie Trinket handles this trip and is the clear horse to beat with her best race.  0-for-5 so far this year, but she's been in some tough spots and was ridden too conservatively when behind a pair of Grade 1 winners in the Yaddo.  #1A Dreaming of Cara never wins, but she's better than she looks on paper and may appreciate this distance more than some of her rivals.  #8 Mah Jong Maddnes once again failed to run up to her top level at Saratoga, but she loves the bigger courses down here and had been in career best form this year before heading north.  Distance the big question for her.  #2 Frosty Bay will need some help to come out on top, but she's an underrated performer who will be able to save all the ground and come running late if she can catch some pace in front of her.
Selections:  6-1A-8-2
Race 10:  #6 Chief Kitten was a clear second best to winning stablemate, and subsequent Grade 2 winner, Startup Nation on debut at Saratoga.  Similar run makes him the horse to beat in here.  
#1 Gear Jammer was far back and allowed to finish up on his own in his sprint debut and now stretches out.  Eligible to show much more in second start.  #4 Brother O'Connell was racing on late when behind Chief Kitten last time.  Can improve for the experience, but Clement generally has them cranked up first time out.  
Selections:  6-1-4-7




TimeformUS Analysis for September 13

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Saturday


Race 1:  #1 Breakeven Analysis showed potential at 2, and he overcame a bit of a trip to win his 3yo debut at Saratoga.  May have to do a little better than that, but he hasn't found the toughest N1x out there, and his trainer keeps them going in the right direction (97 rating off of maiden wins).  His mate, #1A Financial Mogul, is interesting switching to turf for the first time and doing so with pedigree.  We haven't been fans of his on dirt, and there's no point in liking him as part of an entry with Breakeven Analysis, but if that horse were to scratch, we'd be interested.  #4 Santa Elf has improved recently, and he showed upstate that he can handle grass.  He was badly compromised in a paceless race behind #9 Cashmere Cat last time.   
Selections:  1/1A-4-9-7
Race 2:  #4 Cali Star tried a four-wide run through the second turn going longer upstate, and faded late after failing to carry her run all the way.  Turn-back figures to work for her.  #2 Strum was slow from the gate and a bit green when a no-factor 4th on debut, but that was a good field and she's eligible to come forward.  Trainer change to Pletcher will draw some money her way, and she has to stretch out, whereas Cali Star is cutting back.  #5 Garzoni is also eligible for better as a 3yo.  She didn't set the world on fire last year, and having to get a mile off the layoff isn't ideal, but the 84 TFUS Speed Figure earned for her last start is already competitive with this field.
Selections:  4-5-2-7
Race 3:  Not a bad race for a new face, and either of #1 Hadrian or #6 Pisco Bliss could fit the bill as they make their respective 3yo debuts.  Of the two, we'd be more willing to give Hadrian another go, as she had little to offer first time out and was not being asked for much by her rider.  They went back to the drawing board after that, and we may see a different horse this time.  #8 Bold Runner exits the best last effort and is tough with a similar performance today.  Has speed and a rider who knows how to use it.  We will use #9 Tree Fire somewhere, as his last start at this level, on July 11, was an OK effort while up against a slow pace.  He was in too tough last time.  
Selections:  1-8-11-9
Race 4:  Race may all come down to what we get from #7 Moonluck.  He was a promising horse as a late 3yo before missing time and being offered up for $20k upon his return.  Not sure how much we found out about his current state in that facile win after tracking a slow pace, but he has talent and is brought back in a spot where his new connections can't lose him.  #1 Giant Fox ran well twice over off tracks at Saratoga and will appreciate any pace that develops in front of him here.  #6 Whyprolongtheagony dropped down at Monmouth last time and put in a solid four-wide run through the turn after a couple of pace horses who weren't coming back.  He will also appreciate having some pace, and there's enough of it in here.
Selections:  7-1-6-5
Race 5:  #11 Blazing Truth showed some potential despite being shut off at the break and then racing greenly in sprint debut here back in June.  Cuts back with lasix on after failing to stretch out upstate, and faces a field full of first-time starters.
#3 Red Guard is a half-brother to Storm Front, a multiple graded stakes winner on grass with over $870k in the bank.  #4 Night Prowler debuts for Chad Brown, and his dam was a multiple graded stakes winner on grass.  
Selections:  11-4-3-9
Race 6:  #11 Giant Jo ran well in both turf starts as a 2yo, and he looked good when returned on the drop back in June as a new gelding.   Forget the dirt race at Saratoga; he's eligible to improve further, and there is not much other speed signed on in this spot.  #5 Aheadofthecurve put in a lackluster effort on this track back in May, but he rebounded off of a short break to post his maiden win, and he's been washed off to dirt since then.  #10 Dominate endured a tough trip two back, then failed to fire after being carried out early last time.  Not sure we can trust him, but he has improved since returning to turf earlier this year and is very tough in here with his good race. 
Selections:  11-10-5-4
Race 7:  Late Pick 4 kicks off with a pair of graded stakes on the turf, beginning with the Grade 3 Noble Damsel over one mile.  #5 Tokyo Time has finally started to deliver on her early promise, and enters here off of back-to-back wins.  She was able to close down a field from the back two starts back, and then took control and wired a field with ease at Saratoga last time.  #6 Annecdote is a dangerous import adding lasix for Clement.  She progressed nicely as a 3yo, and ran very well first time back from the layoff this year.
 #9 Baffle Me is better than she's been able to show recently after a pair of tough trips.  Can be a threat in here if able to use her speed this time.  
Selections:  5-6-9-1
Race 8: Wide-open Sands Point drew a talented field of nine 3yo fillies for turf.  We'll try #4 Walk Close at a price as our top pick.  She has run well every time,  and she acquitted herself well in a tough spot last time despite not getting clear to run until the late stages. French imports #1 Xcellence and #10 Ball Dancing are dangerous for Chad Brown, but we're not sure how much of an edge they have on this field, if they have one at all.  
Selections:  4-5-6-1
Race 9:  Tough race to play through, with seven first-time starters among the nine 2yos entered.  Of the firsters, we're most interested in #8 Because I'm Happy.  He has a strong Breeding Rating of 89 for dirt sprints and starts for a dangerous trainer.  #4 Daredevil and #5 Leave the Light On are both well-connected and eligible to be runners.  #6 Breezy My Way has valuable experience, and he put in a run in his debut before flattening out at the end.
Selections:  8-6-4-5
Race 10:  Doesn't get any easier, with a full field of evenly matched NY-breds on grass.  Seven of them are returning from Saratoga's 9th race on August 16th, and of those, we want #12 Hurry Up Alan.  He encountered major traffic in that race and can do better here if able to work a trip from his outside post.  #6 Campogiovanni is competitive with these with his best effort and he'll be a big price.  #10 Sneaky Kitten is tough to take on top, having posted nine second-place finishes since his last win, but is also clearly a contender.
Selections:  12-6-10-9



TimeformUS Analysis for September 12

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #2 Aldrin, a half-brother to Tapit, brought $1 million earlier this year and was rumored to be a runner prior to Spa debut.  
Didn't show speed that day and wasn't beating subsequent Grade 1 winner Competitive Edge anyway, but he's worked five times since that race and can be expected to show up a different horse for this.  #4 Money Changer has run well twice for Pletcher without winning and will now have to stretch out.  #3 Courtier endured an impossible trip when debuting in turf route upstate.  Deserves another chance, and he has a versatile pedigree.  #1 The Truth or Else has run only on turf to this point, and he's run well enough, but his pedigree is slanted more toward dirt racing.  
Selections:  2-3-4-1
Race 2:  #1 Bartiromo has faced tougher in her last two and drops back down after giving way from a wide position last time.  She's logical and likely a better fit with these, but she may need to bring something approaching her best if #7 Al's Gal shows up with her last race.  She was first off the claim that day and had plenty in hand through the stretch after circling the field.  New trainer won six turf races at Saratoga and gets a 95 rating second off the claim.  This isn't a bad race to try a new face, and #6 Simple Love could be the right one.  She went to Suffolk for her stateside debut and was easily best, though being entered for $50k right away by Clement likely says something about her.
Selections:  7-1-6-5
Race 3:  Several interesting firsters will square off against a pair of horses with valuable experience.  #1 Onus and #2 Treasure were defeated by a big longshot from Asmussen's barn at Saratoga, but they both ran well that day, and it will not be easy for a first-time starter to defeat them.  Each of the 4 first-time starters sports a Breeding Rating between 86 and 95.  #3 Carioca Girl is the first foal from a Grade 1 winning dam.  #5 Paris Bikini debuts for Pletcher.  She is from the family of Belmont winners Rags to Riches and Jazil.  #6 Purpose of Life is from the family of Grade 1 winners Chaposa Springs and You and I, and she brought $220k after working a furlong in 10.3 in May.
Selections:  2-1-5-3
Race 4:  #2 Sheriffa is 7/5 on the ML as she drops all the way down in class looking for her second win, and while she is the horse to beat, it's not as if she can just sleep-walk through this field.  #4 Prove It All Night switched back to dirt at Saratoga and burned off several runners who were on the chase in there while remaining clear of the closers in a much-the-best win.  #1 Andromeda's Risk rode a gold rail to a big upset win in debut, but she has had her share of excuses since then, and she drops down for first start back from a layoff.  #9 Sharpandwitty has speed, which Pace Projector indicates will play in this race, and she was stuck contesting the pace on a dead rail in first start back from the layoff on July 11.
Selections:  4-2-1-9
Race 5:  #8 Lucky Nancy E. was allowed to walk along on an uncontested lead and took a field wire to wire at a big price here on July 11.  Pace Projector puts her in a similar scenario today, and she is a dangerous horse in this race.  #1 Run to Mama improved on turf right along as a 3yo, and she found a tougher race (Race Rating of 91) in her 4yo debut upstate.  Can come forward off of that one, and has enough speed to keep the pace in her sights.  #5 Chrysolite is an improving horse whom we will use at the expense of #2 The Lady Says Yes and #4 Caribean Beat, both closers who may be compromised by the race shape. 
Selections:  1-8-5-4
Race 6:  #1 Costenia had a no-chance trip at Gulfstream on April 18 (unnoticed by the chart caller) and then dropped in class at Saratoga to crush a field with an 88 TFUS Speed Figure.  Effort similar to that makes her very tough for this field to beat.  
#3 Lonely Teardops has picked up her game since arriving in NY, posting speed figures of 71 and 82 in her two starts, and she has tactical speed from a good post.  #7 Funky Munky Fever is a deep closer who needs pace to close into, but she's good enough to win this if the set-up is there.  #5 Winner's Legacy prevailed in a close photo in a race dominated by closers upstate; may not get the same set-up here.  #2 Untiltherewasyou improved with the stretch-out to put up a TFUS Speed Figure of 87 on a muddy track last time.  Makes her first start on turf with blinkers on today. 
Selections:  1-3-7-5
Race 7:  #2 Sweetpollypurebrd had some speed but could only chase an impressive winner on debut last month.  She was a clear second best at the end with an 80 TFUS Speed Figure and is the horse to beat today.  She faces some interesting first-time starters, including #9 First Service.  First Service brought $110k after zipping a furlong in 10 flat back in March.  #4 Sandra has a perfect Breeding Rating of 100 for dirt sprints, and she is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner, and Breeders' Cup F & M Sprint runnerup, Dust and Diamonds, but trainer gets a rating of 0 with first-time starters. 
Selections:  9-2-3-7
Race 8:  Strong first-level allowance on the grass features several potential stakes performers.  #9 American Girl was highly impressive winning her debut in Ireland earlier this year, and she finished strong after getting very headstrong and being pulled back to last in her stateside debut.  Has a huge pedigree and much potential.  
#6 Zinzay flashed potential at 2 and may have needed that first start back from a layoff at Saratoga.  She's eligible to go forward, and is dangerous if she does.  #1A Dancing House is first-time lasix for her 3yo debut (100 trainer rating for McLaughlin with that move), and also flashed potential last year.  #3 Run of the River and #7 Secret Someone are both well-bred and well-connected, and they've both run races on grass to suggest that they have this kind of ability.
Selections:  9-6-7-1A
Race 9:  #5 East Coast Express hasn't sprinted on turf since her debut last April, but she did not run poorly that day, and she has, in fact, run well several times over turf, which is not something that can be said for most of her competition.  She was caught up dueling a fast pace that collapsed last time.  She is far from a likely winner, but she'll be a price, and it's that kind of race.  We've tried #10 Barrier to Entry in each of her last four starts, and have not been rewarded despite her running well a couple of times.  Getting tired of her, and don't like the rider change for this, but this is the right class drop.  
Selections:  5-10-7-11

TimeformUS Analysis for September 11

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont on Thursday September 11th

Race 1:  #2 Noble Doss returned from a layoff at this level over this track back in June and buried a field with a TFUS Speed Figure of 92.  Drops back down after two starts vs. tougher upstate, and he has enough speed to be close in a race projected to favor the frontrunners.  #5 Magnificent Moon has come back better than ever off a long layoff as a 6yo, winning 3 of his 4 starts around one turn on dirt.  Has never run a figure fast enough to contend with the best race of a couple of these, but he's first off the claim for a very dangerous trainer.  #1 Most Happy Fella hasn't been at his best recently and drops in class once again, looking for the right level.  Has back races that would be plenty good enough.
Selections:  2-5-1-3
Race 2:  #8 Beauty Surprise stumbled at the start, then was bumped and carried out wide into the first turn against a tougher field last time.  Has more speed than that when away cleanly and can use it to positive effect in this field.  #3 Shaikha is clearly fast enough to win this, but she's been happy to settle for minor awards so far, and we don't mind trying to beat her once again.   #6 Reckless Move gave way to finish behind a couple of these last time, but she was just starting back from a layoff.  Can do better with that one behind her, and Pace Projector places her on the early lead.
Selections:  8-3-6-2
Race 3:  #2 Shore Runner has put up TFUS Speed Figures of 99 and 101 for his last two starts.  If he runs that well again, this field is unlikely to be able to cope, and he has enough speed to keep up with the pace. 
#4 Slamarama has the back races to compete with Shore Runner, and he has speed, but he has proven incapable of running a race like that recently.  Instead, we'll use a little of #7 Joking, who comes back to grass and restricted claiming company for his second start back off the layoff.  He's been a solid and consistent dirt sprinter throughout his career, but he has run well enough on turf in the past.
Selections:  2-7-4-6
Race 4: ML favorite #10 Spa City Treasure was compromised by a slow pace and couldn't catch wire-to-wire winner Eternal Bull at Saratoga, and he feels like the horse to beat, though we wonder about 7 furlongs for him.  As an alternative to him, we'll try #4 Bad to the Roan.  We've been wrong about him since his debut, when he was well-bet and unlucky to be racing against the grain of an intensely inside-speed-favoring track, but he's been given a little time to regroup, and he has a strong Breeding Rating of 89 for turf sprints.  
Selections:  4-10-8-11
Race 5:  #1 Frame projects for a clear early lead in a race favoring horses on or near the lead, and he is entered right back at the right level after posting a solid win on the drop. 
#6 Perfect Disco put up an 88 TFUS Speed Figure when dropped in class for his new trainer, and a figure like that will make him competitive with Frame.  Concern is that he hasn't been seen in the 116 days since that race, and he was listed as a vet scratch back on June 6th.  #2 Herd Mentality gets a pass for the recent turf try, but he was a no-excuse 2nd after getting loose on the lead at this level two back, and Frame is faster than he is early. 
Selections:  1-2-6-5
Race 6:  #4 Midnight Citra made a promising debut over this surface back in June before trying turf to no avail upstate.  78 TFUS Speed Figure she earned for that debut is tops in the field on dirt, and we like her chances switching back to this surface.  #9 Kinsley was outpaced early on in strong MSW sprint upstate, but she raced on through the stretch and was still going after the wire.  Eligible to improve rapidly for Pletcher, and is likely to bring more speed this time.  #1 Cover Up was away last and outrun early when no threat behind a pair of promising fillies in her debut, and she is also eligible to be better for the experience. 
Selections:  4-9-1-7
Race 7:  #6 Charlie's Picnic appeared to appreciate the cut-back to this distance two back as he circled the field and finished gamely to prevail.  Cutting back again and drops in class.  #1A Battled is a wildcard, having never run on turf, but he's the fastest horse in the race and is dropping in class off the trainer change.  #5 Lunar Tales dropped in class at Saratoga and was unable to impact after getting bumped at the break.  New trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with turf sprinters. 
Selections:  6-1A-5-4
Race 8:  #5 Surfing U S A and #6 Mosler returned from layoffs and finished last and next-to-last in a loaded-looking allowance race at Saratoga on August 16, but we thought we could make excuses for both of them.  Surfing U S A stumbled badly at the start and lost his best chance.
Mosler looked something less than fully cranked pre-race, and then was sent up to contest the pace before giving way in the stretch.  We're expected both to show more this time, and since we liked Mosler quite a bit as a 2yo, we'll give him preference.  #4 Cool Samurai is also interesting as he makes what is essentially his 3yo debut after showing much promise in his first two career starts, one of which came over this track and trip.
Selections:  6-4-5-8
Race 9:  #1 Maura's Pass was caught wide throughout turf debut on opening day of the Saratoga meet, and she was never put in position to run when defeated as the favorite in her return up there.  Can be given one more chance. #11 Bella Kateri is the clear horse to beat, and she had a troubled trip of her own last time when she may have been best.  #2 Manner of Speaking is eligible to improve as she makes her 3yo debut with a trainer change and lasix on for the first time.  
Selections:  1-11-2-9