Saturday, May 24, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
Race 1: #4 Tiz Dark is 2/5 on the ML for Pletcher after making a promising debut here a couple of weeks ago. He certainly ran well enough there, and earned a solid figure for the effort, but we are very interested in #3 Sendario, another second-time starter, but one who figures to have benefited greatly from his debut. Sendario raced greenly while outrun in that slow-paced sprint, but he was running at the end and galloped out strongly.
We think Sendario is eligible to come way forward here, and will take a small shot with him against the favorite.
Race 2: #4 Precarious has proven form over this distance, has the positional speed to get any kind of trip, and ran very well to just miss over this track and trip last time. We think she should be favored in this race, and will take her over the Clement second-time starter, #5 Seda Francesa, and #1 Concise, who projects to be on the lead in a race that favors that running style.
Race 3: #6 Off My Cloud has run all of the fastest races in here, save #4 Happy Recap's March 15 win over an intensely speed-favoring track, and she picks up Castellano in her first start off the claim by a very sharp trainer (84 rating off the claim, 100 going route-to-sprint).
#1 Painted Poney buried a weak field with an easy front-running trip here opening weekend, but that was only her second start on dirt, and she is our other horse.
Race 4: Both #1 Elroi and #8 Trainingforsuccess emerged from Race 2 on May 4th with excuses and are players in this race, but we are more interested in a couple of other horses in here. #7 Mark My Way was all potential in two turf starts last year, and can reasonably be expected to have developed further during his winter break. We will take him off the layoff, and also use #5 Birchwood Road, who ran much better last year than his 1-for-6 record would indicate.
Race 5: If nothing else, there is enough speed entered in this race to anticipate a fair running, and we are going to hope that #3 Buckeye Heart can finally catch the right scenario to take advantage of. He is an effective closing sprinter on his best day, and this race figures to set up for him with speed toward the inside in #1 Tummel and #2 Upward, and speed outside from #5 Rigby. #4 Define is in good form as the ML favorite, and any pace that develops helps his cause, as well, but Buckeye Heart is going to be tough for us to resist at a square price.
Race 6: #2 Moon Back More was scratched from what appeared to be a likely spot earlier in the meet, which doesn't thrill us, but he still has run the fastest races of this group, and the distance poses no problem. #1 Letsfaceitjohnny and #7 Beau Who appear to be the logical alternatives.
Race 7: #3 Amulay would be very hard to beat here if we are off the turf. Otherwise, we will try #2 Go Olivia Go, switching to turf off the claim. She was in solid form all winter, has more tactical speed than her main rivals, and ran respectably on turf in April. #7 Onthekisser and #9 Dance With Gio are the ones to beat, but are both closers in a race lacking much pace.
Race 8: #4 Daring Dancer has been highly impressive in taking each of her first three career starts, and doesn't figure to be hindered by added distance here considering her pedigree and running style. One of the horses behind her in the Appalachian last time, #1 Recepta, has a legitimate chance to turn the tables on her here, however, and may be the right kind of price, as well. Recepta was trying a wide sweeping run through the turn in the Appalachian while Daring Dancer was getting a perfect ground-saving trip, and with her inside draw over this distance on the inner, she could pull the right trip.
Race 9: #10 Knox had his scheduled turf debut rained off earlier in the meet, and may suffer the same fate a second time, but we're on board if this one stays on. #6 Pilatus was second best to a runaway winner when dropped down at Gulfstream in March; figures tough in here if we're on the turf, as does #11 School Yard, who has been close more than once at around this level, and starts for an underrated trainer.