Saturday, July 05, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Belmont Analysis for Sunday, July 6
Race 1: #6 Bobby Jo picked up her game off the claim by these connections last year, and ran competitively with better horses throughout the summer; makes third start back from a nice outside post with a big drop in class after facing nine-time stakes winner Winning Image and the 7-for-11 lifetime Galiana. #1 Coast of Sangria also drops into a better spot after trying tougher off the re-claim by Mike Miceli last time; convincing win vs. similar two starts back. #3 Love to Score missed the break and was never involved on turf last time; has competitive dirt form and has been facing better, as well.
Race 2: This race shapes up as a two-horse race between #3 Coriander and #7 Morethanawarning. Morethanawarning has never raced this cheap before, and is plummeting all the way down after four straight no-factor efforts vs. entry level allowance foes, and she will appreciate lining up against these horses. Coriander endured a tough trip when cut back to a sprint last time, hitting traffic in several different spots, and then getting stuck inside through the stretch; she gets a big rider change for this, to go along with her class drop, but faces a tough rival on the drop down. #6 Send the Limo exits a low-rated (69 TimeformUS Speed Figure) wire-to-wire win vs. maiden claiming company at Monmouth, and projects to be loose on the lead once again here; turf races in NY were disappointing.
Race 3: Not much to say about $125k Lynbrook stakes for 2yo NY-bred fillies, as 4 of the 6 entered are maidens, three of those first-time starters. Won't be surprising if one of the firsters could do better than the 64 and 69 TimeformUS Speed Figures put up by the recent maiden winners in here, and our guess will go to #6 Wonder Gal, who brought $210k after working 10.1 at OBS March, and whose trainer had a strong year with 2yos in 2013.
Race 4: #3 Perfect Dancing was off slowly and trailed all the way around to the top of the stretch before swinging around very wide and finishing well too late behind The Mooche and others at this level last time. Can do better assuming a clean break and trip, and will be a price.
#6 The Mooche is the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff and second at this level; had a clean trip but raced on well when ahead of the top one last time, and was a new gelding for that race. #1 With Expression is logical, but was a no-excuse 3rd behind a longshot winner last time, and #8 Wake Up and Go and #9 Rontos New York are also competitive but were similarly defeated by a huge longshot on June 4th.
Race 5: #4 Giant Fox didn't handle turf at all last time, but made a promising debut on the main track with a late run and gallop-out before running into stakes-bound Bay of Plenty in his second start; in for a tag for the first time on dirt. #9 Baskets comes back to dirt with blinkers on and drops down to $20k for Rudy, who sports nothing but solid ratings with any and all of those moves: Turf-to-dirt 87, Claimers Down in Class 100, Blinkers On 91. Pace Projector indicates that he can make the lead from his outside post. #3 Master Yank is down again after bombing at odds-on two months ago; 80 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned for his narrow defeat two back makes him tough, if he can get back to it.
Race 6: #3 Cotton Pickin has run very well in each of his two starts since being claimed by this outfit, and has done so without the perfect trips pulled by #5 Edie and #2 Starship Pleasant; isn't far off of those rivals based on those races, but will be a much better price once again. #6 One Penny Piece could easily have taken four in a row dating back to the end of last year were it not for a narrow defeat for $75k at the end of March; back to a better spot after facing a stakes-caliber field off the claim.
Race 7: Perhaps some warning signs with #2 Love to Run being cut in half for his second start off the layoff, but he is unlikely to find an allowance race that he can be competitive in, and he ran a trio of TimeformUS Speed Figures around this time last year that this field would not be able to match; Kimmel gets a strong 91 trainer rating when dropping claimers (as compared to his overall rating of 67), which suggests that he does it with intent.
#7 Springcourt has come up short at low odds in each of his last three starts, but was claimed from that last one by a very sharp outfit, and may be able to do better this time, just needs some pace. #5 Dynamical has consistently run TimeformUS Speed Figures in the low 90s on dirt, which makes him a contender, but nothing more than that, so he is tough to take as the favorite on the ML; perhaps he'll pick up his game a little off the trainer change. #4 Moe Man goes first off the claim for Rudy (98 rating), who has gotten back to winning some races over the past week.
Race 8: #9 Middleburg was most unlucky not to win his last start after dueling down the 8/5 favorite through the middle of the race, only to be nailed late by a perfectly ridden winner; still earned the top speed figure in the race, and deservedly so. #4 Shining Copper improved off the trainer change to Pletcher despite getting an odd ride being held up off of what was a moderate pace; dangerous if going forward again, which is possible. Interested to see what we get from #3 Deep Speed, who was very visually impressive in posting 108 speed figure win here last month; worried that none of the five to have returned from that heat have confirmed its strength.
Race 9: #1 Crown Thy Good raced on well despite getting stuck behind a slow pace in his debut, and then was likely best last time when taking a sharp wide run through the turn before getting outfinished by a perfect-trip winner (who returned to win again); should be set for best in third career start; has a strong pedigree to handle this distance on turf.
#8 Heyaarat set a strong pace in what was a promising turf debut vs. a couple of these last time, and could be dangerous if allowed to get comfortable up front this time. #12 Day Six was never a factor in his debut, but deserves at least one more chance, considering the female family he descends from, which contains Grade 1 turf winners Bit of Whimsey, Royal Mountain Inn and Miss Josh.