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TimeformUS Race Analysis

 

 

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TimeformUS Analysis September 1

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of the Racing at Saratoga on Monday September 1

Race 1:  #2 Cushion wound up going a fast pace when stretched to 1 1/2 miles in stakes company last time.  She was impressive in her win over this distance off the layoff downstate, and she is perfectly drawn for the cut-back.  #3 Keening has picked up her game since being switched back to turf, and she earned the top last-out speed figure for game runner-up finish last time.  #1A Kitten's Queen has run well twice up here already and picked up a win over this trip last time.  She was a game 2nd to the talented Crown Queen one start prior, and is a threat if she's the half of the entry that goes. 
 
Selections:  2-3-1A-8
 
Race 2:  #5 Moonlight Fantasy raced very greenly throughout her debut and was left far behind her talented stablemate Girlabouttown, who rolled away to a big win in the stretch.  Figures better for having had that run for a trainer who gets perfect 100 rating with second-time starters.  #4 Sweet Sweet Afleet is a half to a pair of multiple winners, and she hails from a very strong female family (87 pedigree rating, dam and second dam both stakes winners).  Ships in from Finger Lakes with some good works in tow.  #3 Saharan Serenade has yet to make an impact through four starts, but she had trouble at the start the last time she was on dirt, and she was outrun over an inside-speed favoring track one start before that. 
 
Selections:  5-4-3-8
 
Race 3:  2yo NY-breds will sprint on turf to close out the Pick 3.  #3 Memories of Peter is a full brother to Image of Noon and Image of Disco, who have both earned over $140k on grass.  #5 Mark My Style is a half to a pair of turf winners, and his dam won the Grade 3 Pebbles Stakes on grass a few years ago.  #9 Fleeting (94 pedigree rating for turf sprints) is from the female family of Plenty of Grace, a multiple Grade 2 winner on grass, and a sister to turf champion Soaring Softly.  #10 Cats Landing's dam was a turf winner, and she is a half to Incurable Optimist, who was undefeated in four career turf starts, including a pair of graded stakes.
 
Selections:  3-5-9-10 
 
Race 4:  #6 Competitive Edge was perhaps the most impressive 2yo to debut in NY this year, and he takes the next step for Pletcher.  Has some quality speed to deal with in this race, as well as an experienced stakes-winning rival, so he'll have to be as good as advertised.  #5 I Spent It is 2-for-2 and already a stakes winner.  There is no substitute for experience, and he was professional coming through on the inside to win the Saratoga Special.  #3 Requite got bet and then toyed with MSW rivals earlier in the meet.  We were impressed with him, but this is a tough spot.
 
Selections:  6-5-3-4
 
Race 5:  #5 Keen's Cupla finished well behind a clear-cut winner in his debut, and he endured a very tough trip behind Shimba last time on dirt.  Dangerous at a price as he cuts back and switches from turf to dirt.  #7 Stenson disappointed when last seen over a muddy sealed track, but he had run quite well in all three prior starts and is eligible to have developed further during his down time.  #1 Shimba got away poorly from the gate when switched to dirt last time, then finished gamely behind a strong winner to be 2nd best.  Has to break cleanly from the rail, but he's the horse to beat.  
 
Selections:  5-7-1-3
 
Race 6:  #11 Abilio is at his best on the lead but hasn't made the front since running a gutsy 4th at a huge price in a tough Mohawk last October.  Has to use his speed from the outside in this paceless field, and if he does, Pace Projector indicates that he'll have all the best of it.  #12 Monument Hill also has enough speed to get position from his tough post, and he is the horse to beat in here assuming he can pull a trip.  #7 Depeche Chat drops in class after a no-factor effort earlier in the meet.  Has enough speed to be up close, and is good enough with his best effort.
 
Selections:  11-12-7-4
 
Race 7:  Interested to see what we get from #1 Carpe Diem, a half to Grade 1 winner J B's Thunder who debuts for Pletcher.  Brought $1.6 million after working 10.1 in March, and shows up here with a pair of fast recent gate works.  #2 Old Mexico is a firster for Asmussen, who has brought them over ready all meet, and he's a half to three winners.  #9 Because I'm Happy debuts for a dangerous trainer, and #8 Ask Chuck is a half to Grade 1-winning sprinter Here Comes Ben.  
 
Selections:  1-9-2-8
 
Race 8:  Wide-open dirt route for entry level allowance runners drew a full field and is projected to have a strung-out field, with plenty of speed signed on.  We'll hope that helps #1 Wizardly most, as he's a late-running type, and he was finishing gamely over a shorter trip in the mud last time.  #7 Grand Strand has disappointed to this point, but he's off the claim for dangerous connections and he may appreciate getting stretched out in distance.  #11 None Like Nolan will have to step it up off his recent maiden win, but he has upside and will appreciate being able to make one run into this race after forcing the pace out wide en route to that victory. 
 
Selections: 1-7-11-2
 
Race 9:  We liked #8 Bashart a bit last time and were dead wrong as he never got involved in the Hall of Fame, which was upset by #10 Wallyanna.  Still, he ran well off the layoff when contesting a fast pace all the way, and we'll give him a chance to rebound, as we expect that he will be forwardly placed this time in a race that is projected to favor the horses up close.  #5 Storm is facing tougher, but he's undefeated on grass and already a two-time winner over this distance.  Horse he ran over late last time came back to confirm the quality of that effort in Saturday's night cap.  #1 Ring Weekend may be best positioned to take advantage of the expected pace, as he draws the rail with enough speed, but we're expecting him to be a bit over bet off his last race, in which he ran well, but not overly so in our opinion.
 
Selections:  8-5-1-6
 
Race 10: #2 Socialsaul is a question mark after being pulled up and vanned off when last seen, but his new trainer is having a breakout meet, and he's consistently done well with older horses like this off the claim   #10 Shankopotamus looks for three straight in the right spot to close out the meet, and a repeat of his last up here will likely be enough to get it done.  #6 I Want You to Know and #8 Moe Man are both getting the proper cut back in distance here after trying longer races that did not suit them.  
 
Selections:  2-10-6-8

 

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Forbes’ Firsters for Monday, September 1, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Monday, September 1, 2014

Race 7, All 2-year-olds, 5 ½ furlongs, dirt, 4:15 p.m.

CARPE DIEM (chestnut colt, Giant’s Causeway—Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s Song) is the sixth foal from his dam, a stakes winner going long on dirt. All four to race have won, including a pair of stakes winners. The first, Doncaster Rover, was a multiple stakes winner and was multiple group stakes-placed sprinting on the turf in England. The second, J. B.’s Thunder, broke his maiden upon debut routing here on the Saratoga turf. He went on to take the Grade 1 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity going 1 1/16 on Keeneland’s all-weather surface. Carpe Diem was Giant’s Causeway’s second highest-priced yearling to sell at auction in 2012 and his sire’s most expensive 2-year-old in training for this year.

Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $550,000 Keeneland September yearling; $1,600,000 OBS March 2-year-old in training (one furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, video)

 

READY FOR RYE (bay gelding, City Zip—Embroidery, by More Than Ready) is the first foal from his dam, who won two of five starts, both sprinting on the grass. Embroidery is a half-sister to Furthest Land, a multiple graded stakes winner whose biggest triumph came in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile when it was conducted on Santa Anita’s all-weather surface. Ready For Rye’s third dam, Flamboyance, produced Dynever, a multiple graded stakes winner routing on dirt who earned better than $1.4 million.

Owner: Chalk Racing

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $70,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

ASK CHUCK (bay colt, Elusive Quality—Chasetheragingwind, by Dayjur) is a half-brother to Here Comes Ben, winner of the Grade 1 Forego right here at Saratoga. Their dam is a half-sister to a pair of multiple group stakes winners sprinting on turf, King Charlemagne and Meshaheer. Both achieved their first group success as juveniles. A half-sister to Ask Chuck’s dam, Chasethewildwind, produced Albertus Maximus, who won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile on all-weather and the Grace 1 Donn Handicap on dirt.

Owner: Brandon & Marianne Chase

Trainer: Charles LoPresti

Jockey: Dylan Davis

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.

 

TimeformUS Race Analysis August 31

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of Sunday's Races at Saratoga

 
Race 1:  #9 High Jinks failed to fire when last seen at Arlington and was given some time off by her new connections.  Is entered back in a spot where they can't lose her, and if she is ready to return to form, she will be tough in here.  
 
#11 Flamingo Lane has made few mistakes so far this year and just failed to take a much better field all the way after getting loose on the lead up here early in the meet.  #1 Lady Candidate has the speed from the inside post and Pace Projector places her in early control.  Her turf form is nothing special, but she's faced better horses right along.  
 
#6 Revealing Moment has shown herself to be a better horse on turf recently, and she has the tactical ability to pull the right trip in this race.  Distance is the question for her as she has rarely ventured beyond sprint distances and has fared poorly when attempting to do so.  
 
Selections:  9-11-1-6
 
 

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Race 2:  #2 Ginny's Grey drops back down and cuts back to a better distance for second start off the claim.  Was an easy winner over a one-turn mile two starts back, and was also victorious in only start over this distance.  
 
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#5 Coast of Sangria has won her last four starts at around this level, including a convincing score up here on July 30th after contesting the pace all the way.  Claimed again, but she's run well for several different outfits in the past.  
 
#4 Go Olivia Go bounced back from a tough trip early in the meet to post an easy win over $16k claimers last time.  Similar effort makes her tough right back for owner looking for wins at the end of the meet.
 
Selections:  2-5-4-8
 
 
Race 3:  #3 River Rocks cruised to an easy victory over a muddy track without facing a challenge here last month, but he was dead game when forced to chase a fast pace one start prior, and figures in control of this race early.  
 
Main threat may come from #1 Salutos Amigos, who is dropping back into the right kind of race after trying graded stakes recently.  He is not slow early, and he has shown signs of beginning to deliver on his early promise since being sent to this trainer earlier in the year. 
 
Selections:  1-3-5-2
 
 
Race 4:  #9 Yellow Mountain has faced better horses than this right along, and he ran the best race of his life up here last summer.  Drops in class for the first time after getting in a prep sprinting off the layoff.  
 
#8 Belly of the Whale finished best of the three exiting the finale from July 21st, which was wired by longshot Overton Square.  Entered right back at the same level off the claim and will have a better set-up today according to Pace Projector.  
 
#11 Q Two exits one of the slower 9-furlong races you're likely to see, but he's a full to Bright Abundance, who was a Grade 3 winner on turf and earned almost $380k on that surface.  
 
Selections:  9-8-11-6
 
 
Race 5:  #5 Night Officer doesn't have any early speed, so he'll need some hitting up front to have his best chance. He was badly compromised in both Gulfstream starts earlier in the year, and he has races good enough to win this at a price.
 
# 6 Hear the Footsteps will also need a little pace to develop, but he's at his best sprinting on turf, and the shorter the better.  
 
#1 Upgrade is the best horse in the race, but may not be best over this short sprint distance, so we can try to beat him today.  
 
#11 Escapist didn't break sharply from the gate and never got a chance to use his ample speed in stakes company last time.  Steps up to face some tough and accomplished horses today, but he defeated a solid field of older runners two starts back.
 
Selections: 5-6-1-11
 
 
Race 6:  #4 Emotional Kitten is a question mark going this far but she ran well in the American Oaks over 1 1/4 miles last year, and she's endured back-to-back no-chance trips.  Will give her a chance to step it up, while realizing that it's not an easy spot.  
 
#6 Irish Mission also took tough trip in that Matchmaker last time, and she is a very dangerous horse in here who will have no problem with the distance.  
 
#7 Cat's Claw faces her toughest test to date, but she's passed them all so far in impressive fashion and she will stay all day.  
 
#10 Caroline Thomas has been unlucky in the past, but she fits well in this field and may be the right kind of price to take a shot with.
 
Selections:  4-6-7-10
 
 
Race 7:  #8 Feathered earned a 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure when coming up short first time out against Spinaway-bound Winter Dawn.  Faces mostly first-time starters here and figures tough on them if running as well again today.  
 
#1 Lady Serena is poorly drawn on the rail for her debut, but she's bred to be a runner as a half to major graded stakes winners Honor Code and Noble Tune from the family of the great Serena's Song.  
 
#10 Red Hot Heels is a Tapit, which automatically makes her eligible to be a runner, and her dam is a sister to a pair of multiple graded stakes winners.  
 
Selections:  8-10-1-2
 
 
Race 8:  #11 T Sizzle will have to work something out from his outside post, but he was an extremely unlucky loser in his turf debut last time and has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out.  
 
#3 Alexahente couldn't get clear in the stretch and it cost him in his debut up here last month.  
 
#4 Idiosyncratic was a bit buzzy around this time last year but never made it to the races.  Trainer has had typical good meet with first-time starters, but mostly with 2yo's.  
 
Selections:  11-3-4-6
 
 
Race 9:  #3 Chapman is a need-the-lead type, but he may be fastest early in this matchup and he owns the four fastest TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field.  
 
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#4 John's Island has upside as he drops out of Grade 2 try, as does #10 Big Guy Ian, who has faced much better horses to this point and fits better in this spot.  Figures to pull the right trip from his outside post.  
 
Wildcard is #6 Mar de Mares, who took unlucky DQ at Parx last time and has hit the wire first in all five career starts.
 
Selections:  3-4-10-6
 
 
Race 10:  #5 Darling Sky ships in for dangerous trainer off impressive debut victory while overcoming greenness at Parx.  
 
#4 By the Moon took advantage of a perfect trip to win first time out, but we respect the horse she defeated that day and like that she's trained right along for the quietly hot Michelle Nevin.  
 
#2 Angela Renee may be the one to beat, as she has the experience for Pletcher, but we're not so sure that she has much of an edge on this field.  
 
Selections:  5-4-2-1
 
 
Race 11:  Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap for this $25k claimer, and that figures to help #11 Cheyenne Nation, who was way best with a wide trip last time and drops looking for another win.  
 
#6 Madris was in too tough at Monmouth last time, but he fits better at this level and may get the best of the trips from his inside post.  
 
#8 Hard Enough takes highly suspicious drop off the claim, but he's the best horse in the race, assuming all is well with him (a pretty big "if," perhaps). 
 
Selections:  6-11-8-5
 
 
Race 12:  #10 Ostrolenka is a half to a pair of multiple winners and six-figure earners; debuts for Pletcher.  
 
#5 Persuasive Devil has valuable experience and has run well enough in both starts to ensure that the firsters will have to be able to run a little.  
 
#2 Chasing Bubbles is a half to the stakes-winning sprinter Sentimental Lass, who earned over $160k in her career.  
 
Selections:  10-5-2-6
 

 

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Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, August 31, 2014

Susie Raisher

Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, August 31, 2014

Race 7, 2-year-old fillies, seven furlongs, dirt, 4:11 p.m.

LADY SERENA (bay filly, Bernardini—Serena’s Cat, by Storm Cat) is the third foal from her dam. Serena’s Cats first two foals both debuted as winners here at Saratoga before going on to become graded stakes winners. The first, Noble Tune for the same connections at 2 took the Grade 3 Pilgrim and at 3 garnered the Grade 2 American Turf, both grass races. The second, was second in the Grade 1 Champagne before taking the Grade 2 Remsen on dirt. Serena’s Cat was a stakes winner sprinting on turf and is a half-sister to a multiple group stakes winner in Ireland. Lady Serena’s third dam, Serena’s Song, earned her way into the Hall of Fame with 11 Grade 1 wins on the dirt. Serena’s Song also has been successful as a broodmare, producing Sophisticat, who won the Group 1 Coronation in England; Grand Reward, who took the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap on the dirt and placed in four group stakes in England and Ireland; Harlington, who won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap; Schramsberg, winner of the Grade 3 John B. Connally Turf Cup Handicap; and three-time stakes winner Serena’s Tune.

Owner: Dell Ridge Farm

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

 

ETIQUETTE (chestnut filly, Tapit—Archduchess, by Pleasant Tap) is the fifth foal from her unraced dam, who has produced two starters. Both are winners, including graded stakes winner Pleasant Prince. Pleasant Prince broke his maiden at 2 when stretched out to a mile for the first time. He would go on to take the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, Oklahoma Derby, and Pot O’Luck Stakes in addition to a runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Like Etiquette, Pleasant Prince descends from the A.P. Indy line. Archduchess is a half-sister to a trio of stakes winners, including multiple graded stakes winner Mark One and Grade 2 winner Rookie Sensation. Both have found their success routing, one on dirt and one on turf.

Owner: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds

Trainer: James Jerkens

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

 

KIBBLE (bay filly, Flatter—Spring Mambo, by Kingmambo) is the second foal from her winning dam, a daughter of the outstanding sprinter Chaposa Springs. Chaposa Springs won 14 times in 23 starts, earning more than $750,000. Her biggest victories came right here at Saratoga, where she won the Grade 1 Test and Grade 1 Ballerina. She was also a stakes winner at 2. Chaposa Springs’ half-brother, You And I, was a graded stakes winning juvenile who went on to win the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap at 3 and Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap at 4. A half-sister to Spring Mambo, Well Spring, is the dam of Mendip, a multiple group stakes winner in Dubai.

Owner: Shortleaf Stable

Trainer: James Jerkens

Jockey: Dylan Davis

 

FAIR POINT (bay filly, Smart Strike—Fair Rose, by Harlan’s Holiday) is out of a winning half-sister to Grade 3 Providencia winner Super Freaky. Super Freaky – who also placed in multiple graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks – found most of her success over middle distances on grass. Fair Rose is the dam of one foal to race, who has not won. Fair Point’s third dam, Bonnie’s Poker, produced dual Classic and Dubai World Cup winner Silver Charm, a member of the Hall of Fame.

Owner: Stuart Janney III

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Sales history: $310,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

UNBRIDLED SONYA (gray/roan filly, Unbridled’s Song—Barynya, by Broad Brush) is the fourth foal from her dam, who has one winner from two starters. Barynya is a half-sister to three stakes horses, most notably Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Volponi. Versatile Volponi was a graded stakes winner on dirt and turf from ages 2-4, and was multiple graded stakes placed at 5. Barynya also is a half to multiple graded stakes placed Fickle Friends.

Owner: All American Horses LLC

Trainer: David Cannizzo

Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan

Sales history: $50,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.