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TimeformUS Analysis Wednesday Jul 23

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Wednesday July 22
 
Race 1:  Steeplechase
 
 
Race 2:  2yo fillies in the first flat race of the day, so we get to see the board to kick off the Pick 4, which may not matter that much with Pletcher's #8 Overspending entered back here.  Marooned on the AE list opening day, she brought $340k at OBS March after powering through a furlong in :10 flat.  Expect her to be a short price, and to be tough to beat.  #1 Designer Soxx is a half to Designer Legs, who won the first three starts of her career as a 2yo last summer, including a roughly run edition of the Grade 2 Adirondack here via DQ.  #6 Kisses for Romeo shows up for a good debut trainer with a fast gate breeze in tow.  
 
Race 3:  #4 Madaket Millie has run only on grass to this point, but Chad Brown has a history of success with horses like this switching over to dirt.  #5 Got Lucky has ability but very little speed, so is going to need some help up front, which could happen in this field as she tries her available condition for the first time.  #6 Pretty Fancy is 0-for-2 on dirt but has run well in both of those starts and has the pedigree to take on the added distance here.  #2 Equilateral impressed in winning her debut over a muddy track while earning this field's top figure, and only stepped back mildly with more distance last time. Stretches again, but Wednesday may be the right day to be on her with Got Lucky taking much of the wagering action. 
 
Race 4:  #1 Wild Finish endured a pair of very tough trips when returned from a long layoff earlier this year, and had trouble once again when bounced around between horses late last time on turf; trainer has strong record going from turf to dirt (92 rating) and with horses dropping from allowance to claiming (97).  #4 Shot to Win has won two of his last three, earning speed figures of 95 and 92, which are competitive in here, and Pace Projector puts him on the lead.  #7 Santa Elf has also been in good form recently, which cannot be said for some of the others.  #2 Betweenhereandcool takes a big drop in class after a no-show effort off the layoff; his lone career sprint attempt came in his debut in a very tough field on synthetic.
 
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Race 5:  #2 Girlaboutown is very well-bred and comes off of a promising debut when second-best to her talented stablemate Star Grazing; eligible to improve second out, but will be tough in here even if only duplicating that effort.  #1 Kleptocrat debuted for a tag and landed in a tough spot vs. heavily favored drop-down Loomin Lori Lou, but came with a strong run through the stretch and galloped out past the wire.  #8 Pretty Like Me has run well enough in each of her three career starts, but may have to do better vs. the top one.  #4 Saharan Serenade turns back while switching back to dirt, and she finished up well last time on dirt after encountering trouble at the start.
 
Race 6:  This race features #1A Artemis Agrotera, a Grade 1-winning two-year-old who was subsequently sent off at a short price in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and was burned off after racing close to a fast pace.  Drops out of another Grade 1 try in her 3yo debut, and will be a very short-priced favorite as she lines up vs. fellow NY-breds for the first time since runaway win over this track last summer.  #4 Irish Sweepstakes comes back to dirt after a pair of decent tries on turf downstate, and she also posted a big win up here as a 2yo. 
 
Race 7:  #12 Late Night Artist has run well in all 4 career starts and drops a bit off a pair of solid efforts at Churchill. She easily outfinished #1 Treaty Oak when they met on May 17th, but that one got the better of the draw for the rematch, which may be enough to reverse that decision.  #7 All Star Kitten also drops down a bit for Chad Brown, and she was a game 3rd at Monmouth behind an impressive winner when last seen.  #10 Beauty Surprise has speed and has run well enough to win this; trainer change to Clement doesn't figure to hurt her.  That trainer also sends out first-time starter One More Song, a half to three turf winners.
 
Race 8:  Solid field of $25k claimers shapes up to be a war, as the 10 entered have combined to rack up 64 wins, and several of these horses are dropping in class here.  #7 Bemata faced a strong field of allowance runners last month and couldn't impact them late while racing on through the stretch.  Win two back came easily, and he figures to have plenty of pace to close into in this spot.  #2 Haverhill endured a couple of very tough trips on the inner dirt over the winter, then was dropped down last time and was a clear 2nd-best at this level.  Trainer returned a pair of claims from off the layoff down at Belmont and they both ran well to be second at big prices, and he will also benefit from any pace that develops.  #3 Bernie the Maestro is another class-dropper, and he has run very well over this track and trip in the past. 
 
Race 9:  Interesting group of 3yo fillies will contest the Grade 2 Lake George over 1 1/16 miles on turf. #3 Duff One got off to a promising start to her career here last summer, and continued on through the winter, improving her form until failing to impact a strong field in the Florida Oaks.  Must be ready off the layoff, but she's eligible to be an improved horse since laid off over four months ago, and she'll be a price.  #4 Sweet Acclaim has come up short in all three stateside starts for Chad Brown, but has taken the worst of it trip-wise all three times, and can do better with the right trip this time.  #5 Speed Seeker impressed in burying maidens up front over a demanding one-turn mile at Woodbine as if eligible to be this good.  #2 Daring Dancer was visually impressive in parlaying perfect trips into easy scores through her first three starts, then failed to show up as the favorite last time; needs to rebound. 
 
Race 10:  #1 All Mine Tonight has sprinted on turf only once to this point, but that was also first time back from a layoff, and it resulted in her lone career win; attracts Castellano.  #2 Royal Jest has also performed well in all three career turf sprint attempts and is an attractive price on the ML.  #5 The Lost Tigress switches to grass after cruising to a much-the-best maiden win off the layoff.  #8 Hot Squeeze is the horse to beat, dropping out of troubled-trip stakes attempt, but she was disappointing with a soft trip vs. NY-breds prior to that, and she may be overbet in this race. 
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, July 24, 2014

Susie Raisher

Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, July 24, 2014

Race 2, All 2-year-olds, five furlongs, dirt, 1 p.m.

BULLY PROOF (dark bay or brown colt, Bellamy Road—Flaming Slew, by Slew City Slew) is the first foal from his dam, Flaming Slew, who finished third in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks when it was 1 ¼ miles at Belmont Park. Flaming Slew broke her maiden at three in a career that saw her earn $188,630. Bully Proof exceeded the average auction price for his sire.

Owner: Alan R. Cook, Larry Pratt, and Jacquie Dalton

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $55,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling

 

VILLALOBOS (bay colt, Desert Party—Rokeby Rosie, by Prized) is the seventh registered foal of his dam, three of whom have won from five starters. Rokeby Rosie is a half-sister to Hall of Fame member Silverbulletday. A champion at two and three, Silverbulletday earned more than $3 million in a career that included five Grade 1 victories, including Saratoga’s own Alabama. Silverbulletday is the dam of stakes-placed Tice, while her daughters have turned out a pair of graded stakes winners in Shakin It Up and Govenor Charlie. A second half-sister to Rokeby Rosie, Garden Secrets, has produced a pair of graded stakes winners, including Grade 1 Acorn winner Forest Secrets.

Owner: Nicholas Cammarano, Jr.

Trainer: Guadalupe Preciado

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

Sales history: $90,000 Fasig-Tipton July yearling, $75,000 OBS April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 2/5 seconds, video)

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Race 2, 2-year-old fillies, five furlongs, dirt, 1:00 p.m.

DESIGNER SOXX (dark bay or brown filly, Half Ours—Elegant Designer, by Suave Prospect) is a half-sister to Designer Legs, who won last year’s Grade 2 Adirondack by disqualification. Their dam, who has produced two winners from as many starters, won four stakes, including the NTRA Great State Challenge Juvenile Fillies Invitational.

Owner: Valene Farm

Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.

Sales history: $45,000 Breeders Sales Company of Louisiana yearling

 

OVERSPENDING(bay filly, Harlan’s Holiday—Marfa’s Squall, by Marfa) is a half-sister to Western Prize, who won stakes at Zia Park, Albuquerque, and Ruidoso on the dirt and was third in the Grade 3 Hawthorne Derby on the turf; and Wicked Deed, who took the Tiffany Lass at the Fair Grounds. Their dam, who has produced seven winners from seven starters, is a half-sister to restricted stakes winners Wadif and Western Quality.

Owner: Repole Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $100,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling; $340,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 seconds, video)

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

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Forbes’ Firsters for Monday, July 21, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Monday, July 21, 2014

Race 2, 2-year-old fillies, 5 ½ furlongs, turf, 1:31 p.m.

NEILINGER (bay filly, Tapit—Pursuit of Glory, by Fusaichi Pegasus) is the first foal out of a mare who was third in the Group 1 Cheveley Park at Ireland and is a granddaughter of Sophisticat, who won the Group 1 Coronation in England and was third in the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1,000 Guineas). Neilinger’s third dam is Hall of Famer Serena Song, also the dam of Grade 2 Oaklawn Park Handicap winner Grand Reward and Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap victor Harlington.

Owner: Lee Pokoik

Trainer: Gary Contessa

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Sales history: $205,000 OBS April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, video)

 

RIDDLE ME THIS (dark bay or brown filly, Eskendereya—Queen Joanne, by Mr. Greeley) is the first foal out of his dam, who was second in the Pebbles on the turf. Queen Joanne herself is a half-sister to Stevie Wonderboy, who won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Grade 2 Del Mar Futurity en route to being named Champion Two-Year-Old Male, and Theyskens’ Theory, who won the Group 3 Prestige in England and was second in the Grade 1 Garden City.

Owner: Michael Dubb, Bethlehem Stables, and The Elkstone Group

Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $100,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

DELAWARE BAY (dark bay or brown filly, Scat Daddy—Two Dot Slew, by Evansville Slew) is a half-sister to Angelica Zapata, who has won two turf stakes, an all-weather stakes, and six dirt stakes. Her turf stakes wins came in the Wasted Tears at Gulfstream Park and Capuano Handicap at Calder. The only other starter out of Two Dot Slew won two races on the dirt and one over an all-weather surface. Two Dot Slew placed in a single stakes on the turf and three on the dirt and is a half-sister to Dash of Humor, who won stakes on both surfaces.

Owner: Richlyn Farm Inc.

Trainer: George Weaver

Jockey: Edgar Prado

Sales history: $130,000 OBS April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, video)

 

RAINHA DA BATERIA (chestnut filly, Broken Vow—Amelia, by Dixieland Band) is half-sister to Kindergarden Kid, who won the Grade 3 Sycamore on the turf and was third in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational; He’s Had Enough, second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; and Assateague, third in the Pebbles on the grass. Their dam won the Frances E. Genter over the spinach. Rainha Da Bateria’s second dam, Aguilegia, won the Grade 2 New York Handicap and Grade 3 Black Helen Handicap on the turf and also produced Bertolini, who won the Group 3 July Stakes in England and placed in three Group 1 races in Europe, and Alchemilla, who took a restricted stakes on the dirt at Belmont.

Owner: Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Sales history: $435,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction