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TimeformUS Analysis for July 24

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Thursday, July 24
 
Race 1:  Steeplechase.
 
Race 2:  Of the three experienced 2yos entered to go here, #6 Louisiana Brown interests us the most. He brought a game challenge to troubled Sanford runner-up Mr. Z in his debut before falling just short.  Both #3 Battle Red and #2 Revolver are eligible to step forward a bit with a race under their belts, but we were less impressed with their debut efforts.  Always have to take Pletcher firsters seriously. Therefore, #4 Bully Proof will be part of our play.  
 
Selections:  6-4-3-2
 
 
Race 3:  #2 Miss Electronica is lightly raced, and thus less exposed than her rather modest competition in this $40k maiden claimer. That may be reason enough to take her in here. But she also faced a much tougher group for this level in her debut. The race had a race rating of 79 (vs. today's 66) and she ran into MSW dropper Loomin' Lori Lou in that spot.  
 
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#5 Keep Right has some angles in play, as she drops in for a tag for the first time while also turning back and switching from turf to dirt.  We would also take a long look at firster #8 Built in a Day in a field like this, as she is well-connected. Her trainer doesn't excel first-time out but did saddle Andromeda's Risk to a 41/1 upset in a maiden claiming debut earlier this year.
 
Selections:  2-5-8-9
 
 
Race 4:  #6 Misszippityslewda took a bad stumble at the start, then rallied gamely through some traffic late to be along for second behind a heavily favored front-running winner last time. Then she galloped out strongly after the wire. She deserves another chance.  #1A Ultimate Shopper has dangerous speed, and also has a pair of wins over this seven-furlong distance, which is as many wins as the rest of the field combined. We've always felt that #3 Lady Gracenote was better over sprint distances, so getting back to seven furlongs is a good thing for her. She has hit the board in each of her last six starts sprinting, while posting a pair of wins in those races. 
 
Selections:  6-1A-3-5
 
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Race 5: With plenty of speed signed on, this turf sprint for maiden fillies figures to feature a contested pace . We're interested in giving #10 Julie's Jewelry a chance in here off the trainer change to Clement. She was well-backed for her debut and figures to handle grass, being a half-sister to Saucey Evening, a stakes winner over turf in her career.  
 
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Our other horse will be #3 Miss Lech, who returns for Chad Brown to make what is essentially her 3yo debut. This trip may come up a little short for her. But she was a very good 2nd over seven furlongs on grass last September, and she should have some pace to close into here. 
 
Selections:  10-3-2-5
 
 
Race 6:  #4 Haldane has some hang in her, and it's not exactly encouraging that she has failed to be competitive at Finger Lakes recently, but she is entered at the right level today and figures to have some pace to run at.  #8 Saichi Sweepin has maintained consistent form despite winning just one of her seven starts since arriving on this circuit last September, and she has the best speed from a nice outside post.  Both #1 Bridget Moloney and #2 Bird House have become pace dependent, but we thought the former ran the better race of the two when behind front-running winner Sweet Sway at this level on June 27th. 
 
Selections:  4-8-1-2
 
 
Race 7:  #8 Powerful Instinct showed big improvement once switched to this barn at the end of last year, and wasn't seen to best effect when trying to close from behind a powerful front-running winner off the layoff as a new gelding.  Eligible to go forward in his second start of the year, and Pace Projector suggests he'll have the right set-up for his closing style.  #5 Captain Gaughen's gradual improvement last year as a 3yo is somewhat hidden by a pair of races against the flow last October at Belmont (up dueling a fast pace on the 3rd, and then caught behind a joke of a slow pace on the 19th).  Can do better here in his third start back, and he'll be a price. 
 
Selections:  5-8-11-3
 
 
Race 8:  #2 Pura Vida Zen improved to a new career top speed figure second off the claim and is now shipped straight to Saratoga by a trainer who scores a strong 96 rating with last-out winners.  Not much separating #3 Wild Kay, #6 Wholelotaroyalty and #7 Heir to Dare on recent figures, and they all have speed. 
 
Selections:  2-3-7-6
 
 
Race 9:  $100k Quick Call a real puzzle, with plenty of speed signed on (see Pace Projector) and only a single prior grass winner among the seven entered.  
 
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That turf winner is #3 Escapist, who has impressed in beginning his career two-for-two, but has done so in front-running fashion, and that style may not play in this spot.  The expected pace scenario may make #2 Harpoon the one to beat, as he is one who will be running late for Pletcher, but we think #6 Glacken Too is going to benefit from the turn-back out of a fast-paced route and will take him to post a mild upset. 
 
Selections:  6-2-4-5
 
 
Race 10:  Have no good ideas in wide-open finale that is expected to feature a fast pace. At least #10 Little T. Louie showed some life in his turf debut last time, and he isn't expected to be looking for the early lead.  #8 All Over Me has the best credentials to this point and drops back down as the horse to beat.  #4 Bapu, who is first-time Lasix for second lifetime start, and firster #11 Chasin Chama have landed in the right kind of field, assuming they have any ability. 
 
Selections:  10-8-11-4 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis Wednesday Jul 23

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Wednesday July 23
 
Race 1:  Steeplechase
 
 
Race 2:  2yo fillies in the first flat race of the day, so we get to see the board to kick off the Pick 4, which may not matter that much with Pletcher's #8 Overspending entered back here.  Marooned on the AE list opening day, she brought $340k at OBS March after powering through a furlong in :10 flat.  Expect her to be a short price, and to be tough to beat.  #1 Designer Soxx is a half to Designer Legs, who won the first three starts of her career as a 2yo last summer, including a roughly run edition of the Grade 2 Adirondack here via DQ.  #6 Kisses for Romeo shows up for a good debut trainer with a fast gate breeze in tow.  
 
Selections:  8-1-6-3
 
 
Race 3:  #4 Madaket Millie has run only on grass to this point, but Chad Brown has a history of success with horses like this switching over to dirt.  #5 Got Lucky has ability but very little speed, so is going to need some help up front, which could happen in this field as she tries her available condition for the first time.  #6 Pretty Fancy is 0-for-2 on dirt but has run well in both of those starts and has the pedigree to take on the added distance here.  #2 Equilateral impressed in winning her debut over a muddy track while earning this field's top figure, and only stepped back mildly with more distance last time. Stretches again, but Wednesday may be the right day to be on her with Got Lucky taking much of the wagering action. 
 
Selections:  4-5-6-2
 
 
Race 4:  #1 Wild Finish endured a pair of very tough trips when returned from a long layoff earlier this year, and had trouble once again when bounced around between horses late last time on turf; trainer has strong record going from turf to dirt (92 rating) and with horses dropping from allowance to claiming (97).  #4 Shot to Win has won two of his last three, earning speed figures of 95 and 92, which are competitive in here, and Pace Projector puts him on the lead.
 
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#7 Santa Elf has also been in good form recently, which cannot be said for some of the others.  #2 Betweenhereandcool takes a big drop in class after a no-show effort off the layoff; his lone career sprint attempt came in his debut in a very tough field on synthetic.
 
Selections:  1-4-7-2
 
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Race 5:  #2 Girlaboutown is very well-bred and comes off of a promising debut when second-best to her talented stablemate Star Grazing; eligible to improve second out, but will be tough in here even if only duplicating that effort.  #1 Kleptocrat debuted for a tag and landed in a tough spot vs. heavily favored drop-down Loomin Lori Lou, but came with a strong run through the stretch and galloped out past the wire.  #8 Pretty Like Me has run well enough in each of her three career starts, but may have to do better vs. the top one.  #4 Saharan Serenade turns back while switching back to dirt, and she finished up well last time on dirt after encountering trouble at the start.
 
Selections:  2-1-8-4
 
 
Race 6:  This race features #1A Artemis Agrotera, a Grade 1-winning two-year-old who was subsequently sent off at a short price in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and was burned off after racing close to a fast pace.  Drops out of another Grade 1 try in her 3yo debut, and will be a very short-priced favorite as she lines up vs. fellow NY-breds for the first time since runaway win over this track last summer.  #4 Irish Sweepstakes comes back to dirt after a pair of decent tries on turf downstate, and she also posted a big win up here as a 2yo. 
 
Selections:  1A-4-6-3
 
 
Race 7:  #12 Late Night Artist has run well in all 4 career starts and drops a bit off a pair of solid efforts at Churchill. She easily outfinished #1 Treaty Oak when they met on May 17th, but that one got the better of the draw for the rematch, which may be enough to reverse that decision.  
 
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#7 All Star Kitten also drops down a bit for Chad Brown, and she was a game 3rd at Monmouth behind an impressive winner when last seen.  #10 Beauty Surprise has speed and has run well enough to win this; trainer change to Clement doesn't figure to hurt her.  That trainer also sends out first-time starter One More Song, a half to three turf winners.
 
Selections:  1-12-7-10
 
 
Race 8:  Solid field of $25k claimers shapes up to be a war, as the 10 entered have combined to rack up 64 wins, and several of these horses are dropping in class here.  #7 Bemata faced a strong field of allowance runners last month and couldn't impact them late while racing on through the stretch.  Win two back came easily, and he figures to have plenty of pace to close into in this spot.  #2 Haverhill endured a couple of very tough trips on the inner dirt over the winter, then was dropped down last time and was a clear 2nd-best at this level.  Trainer returned a pair of claims from off the layoff down at Belmont and they both ran well to be second at big prices, and he will also benefit from any pace that develops.  #3 Bernie the Maestro is another class-dropper, and he has run very well over this track and trip in the past. 
 
Selections:  7-2-5-10
 
 

Race 9:  Interesting group of 3yo fillies will contest the Grade 2 Lake George over 1 1/16 miles on turf. #3 Duff One got off to a promising start to her career here last summer, and continued on through the winter, improving her form until failing to impact a strong field in the Florida Oaks.  Must be ready off the layoff, but she's eligible to be an improved horse since laid off over four months ago, and she'll be a price.  #4 Sweet Acclaim has come up short in all three stateside starts for Chad Brown, but has taken the worst of it trip-wise all three times, and can do better with the right trip this time.  #5 Speed Seeker impressed in burying maidens up front over a demanding one-turn mile at Woodbine as if eligible to be this good.  #2 Daring Dancer was visually impressive in parlaying perfect trips into easy scores through her first three starts, then failed to show up as the favorite last time; needs to rebound. 

Selections:  3-4-5-2
 
 
Race 10:  #1 All Mine Tonight has sprinted on turf only once to this point, but that was also first time back from a layoff, and it resulted in her lone career win; attracts Castellano.  
 
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#2 Royal Jest has also performed well in all three career turf sprint attempts and is an attractive price on the ML.  #5 The Lost Tigress switches to grass after cruising to a much-the-best maiden win off the layoff.  #8 Hot Squeeze is the horse to beat, dropping out of troubled-trip stakes attempt, but she was disappointing with a soft trip vs. NY-breds prior to that, and she may be overbet in this race. 
 
Selections:  1-2-5-7
 
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, July 24, 2014

Susie Raisher

Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, July 24, 2014

Race 2, All 2-year-olds, five furlongs, dirt, 1 p.m.

BULLY PROOF (dark bay or brown colt, Bellamy Road—Flaming Slew, by Slew City Slew) is the first foal from his dam, Flaming Slew, who finished third in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks when it was 1 ¼ miles at Belmont Park. Flaming Slew broke her maiden at three in a career that saw her earn $188,630. Bully Proof exceeded the average auction price for his sire.

Owner: Alan R. Cook, Larry Pratt, and Jacquie Dalton

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $55,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling

 

VILLALOBOS (bay colt, Desert Party—Rokeby Rosie, by Prized) is the seventh registered foal of his dam, three of whom have won from five starters. Rokeby Rosie is a half-sister to Hall of Fame member Silverbulletday. A champion at two and three, Silverbulletday earned more than $3 million in a career that included five Grade 1 victories, including Saratoga’s own Alabama. Silverbulletday is the dam of stakes-placed Tice, while her daughters have turned out a pair of graded stakes winners in Shakin It Up and Govenor Charlie. A second half-sister to Rokeby Rosie, Garden Secrets, has produced a pair of graded stakes winners, including Grade 1 Acorn winner Forest Secrets.

Owner: Nicholas Cammarano, Jr.

Trainer: Guadalupe Preciado

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

Sales history: $90,000 Fasig-Tipton July yearling, $75,000 OBS April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 2/5 seconds, video)

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Race 2, 2-year-old fillies, five furlongs, dirt, 1:00 p.m.

DESIGNER SOXX (dark bay or brown filly, Half Ours—Elegant Designer, by Suave Prospect) is a half-sister to Designer Legs, who won last year’s Grade 2 Adirondack by disqualification. Their dam, who has produced two winners from as many starters, won four stakes, including the NTRA Great State Challenge Juvenile Fillies Invitational.

Owner: Valene Farm

Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.

Sales history: $45,000 Breeders Sales Company of Louisiana yearling

 

OVERSPENDING(bay filly, Harlan’s Holiday—Marfa’s Squall, by Marfa) is a half-sister to Western Prize, who won stakes at Zia Park, Albuquerque, and Ruidoso on the dirt and was third in the Grade 3 Hawthorne Derby on the turf; and Wicked Deed, who took the Tiffany Lass at the Fair Grounds. Their dam, who has produced seven winners from seven starters, is a half-sister to restricted stakes winners Wadif and Western Quality.

Owner: Repole Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $100,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling; $340,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 seconds, video)

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

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