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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Race Analysis August 29

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of Friday's Races at Saratoga

Race 1:  #5 Little Gidding dropped down in class up here earlier in the meet, and she lost all chance with a bad stumble at the start behind a blowout wire-to-wire winner.  She still came with a good finish in there, and we're expecting better as she makes her first start for Rudy Rodriguez today (perfect 100 trainer rating off the claim).  
#4 Da Wildcat Girl is the horse to beat in current form, and she faced a tougher group for the level (race rating of 82, as compared to today's 76) when second-best last time.  
#1 Mr Rico Is Valid has yet to run on fast dirt, but he challenged for the lead before tiring late in a race that went to closers. 
Selections:  5-4-1-6


Race 2:  #5 Golden Story drops way down in class after getting embroiled in a fast duel vs. much better horses last time.  Has the speed in this race, which is projected to favor runners on or near the early lead.  
#9 Recanted is the wildcard in the field as he makes his first start for David Jacobson and first start in NY.  Hasn't been seen to good effect since arriving stateside, but he was once a horse of plenty of potential.  
#8 Bajan Summer is entered back in the right kind of race off his mediocre maiden win, but this field may have come up too tough for him.
Selections:  5-9-8-2
Race 3:  #4 One More Song made a premature wide run to contention before weakening to finish behind several of today's rivals in debut, but she showed something in there. She can do better with that experience behind her and with a more patient ride.  
#1 Late Night Artist had to go early to get position from the outside post last time, and that was a race that ultimately collapsed after One More Song's early run.  Did much better at the draw this time.  
#2 Amazing Littlelady raced very greenly and was no factor in her Gulfstream debut.  Gets a makeover of blinkers and lasix for her second start while dropping a bit in class.
Selections:  4-1-2-8
Race 4:  Distance the key in this 1 1/4 route, so perhaps the edge goes to #4 Desvelo, the field's lone prior winner over the trip.  He was racing on well for 3rd last time and starts for a sharp young trainer.  
We will try to get #3 Springcourt home on top as he makes his third start off the claim.  He was rated back to last when stretched out in his most recent start and managed to come with a solid late run in a race that was holding together up front.
 #2 Sinorice may be pushed over the limit by the trip, but he likes this track and fits well with these horses.  #6 Le Deluge is off the claim by David Jacobson, and he shouldn't have any issues with the distance, being a prior winner over 2 miles.  
Selections:  3-4-2-6
Race 5:  This appears to be a good spot for the lightly raced #4 Lady Kreesa, who has held her own in a pair of stallion series races since breaking her maiden back in June.  She's well-bred and well-connected with upside, and is unlikely to find a much better spot than this one.  
#9 Life's a Stage is her only rival to have never started in a claiming race, and she was in improved form when last seen a couple of months ago.  
#1 Take It Inside is just 3-for-32 lifetime, but she's won twice in her last four starts, and she has speed from the inside.
Selections:  4-9-1-2
Race 6:  #4 Partly Mocha began the year with a pair of strong closing efforts downstate before arriving up here and chasing the pace all the way as the favorite on August 3rd.  Drops in class for this, and we'll take him over the four exiting a loaded $25k claimer up here on August 16th.  
#9 Mish Mosh emerged victorious in that race, but his margin for error vs. those rivals is slim.  #2 Bear Tough Tiger and #3 Flashlight both merit consideration as new faces, and they both drop in class for this.  
Selections:  4-3-2-9
Race 7:  Not sure what happened with #2 Lucci the Lion last time, but he has races that make him competitive, and he can benefit if a contested pace develops, which is certainly possible.   Worth noting that trainer gets a perfect 100 rating second off the claim.  
#7 N. F.'s Destiny went wrong after getting hooked into a fast duel up here last summer, but he has shown that he still has his speed since returning, and he enters here off of an easy front-running score at Finger Lakes.  Can be dangerous if able to make the front.  
#4 Jeter was in too tough last time.  Entered back for half the price of his recent claim by an owner looking for wins up here, and he is clearly a good fit in this race.  
Selections:  2-7-4-1
Race 8:  #3 Thatza Wrap finished gamely after a tough trip behind #1 Willow U in last start, and she has proven to clearly be a better turf horse since switched over to break her maiden earlier this year.  
#8 Milkyyourway has settled for second-best in each of her three turf starts this year, but she has faced better than this in those races and will be tough if running her race in this spot.  
#7 Takeoff Your Hat is also logical in this spot.  She posted a pair of open company wins in Florida over the winter and has continued to hold her own vs. tougher since arriving back in NY.  
#9 Keen Katana had an easy trip and was never challenged through the stretch of maiden win last time, but she is another who has improved since switched over to turf.  
Selections:  3-8-7-9
Race 9:  Can only guess in NY-bred 2yo sprint with 16 entered, 15 of them first-time starters (only 10 can go).  #5 Alexandrie is a half to millionaire and multiple graded stakes winner Park Avenue Ball, and she'll debut for Pletcher, who has been quiet with his first-time starters at this meet but is always among the best at having them ready to go.  
#7 Dream On is a half to Agave Kiss, a fast graded stakes winning sprinter in NY a few years ago, and she attracts Castellano for her debut.  
George Weaver can win first out and his #8 My Super Nova is a $100k daughter of Super Saver.  Rick Violette is also an ace with 2yo first-time starters, and he sends two, including #9 Madoo, a half to Cribnote, who was multiple Grade 1 placed as a 2yo.  
Selections:  8-7-5-9
Race 10:  #4 Latique has given the impression of being a filly on the improve after winning her last two races while appearing to do only as much as was required in those races.  Has the tactical speed to get the right trip in this race, which Pace Projector indicates may be run at a fast early pace.  
#2 Miss Frost has also shown improvement recently, and she comes here fresh off of a narrow victory over better up here last time.  
#5 Granny Mc's Kitten is the ML favorite, but her win last time came in a race that went to closers and it gives her little edge in this field.
Selections:  4-2-5-10
Race 11:  #10 Miadora was interesting moving to turf last time with pedigree to handle the switch, but she caught yielding ground and didn't appear to be extending herself through the stretch behind a talented rival in Final Redemption, who would go on to just miss in stakes company in her next start.  We'll give her one more chance assuming firm ground.  
#6 Zindaya disappointed at short prices in Florida after just missing in her debut up here last summer.  Returns from the layoff and can be expected to have developed in her time off.  
#8 Braided had good speed but no chance to hold off a sharp winner here early in the meet.  Has now settled for second in three of last four starts.  
Selections:  10-6-8-9




Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, August 30, 2014

Jon Forbes


Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, August 30, 2014

Race 1, All 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 1:00 p.m.

CONGRATS TO KEN (bay colt, Congrats—Never a No Hitter) is a half-brother to Tizahit, who won the Grade 2 Demoiselle. Their dam has produced two winners on the dirt from three starters. Never a No Hitter is an unraced daughter of Grade 3 Thoroughbred Club of America and Grade 3 Shirley Jones Handicap winner Jeano, who was unplaced in her lone start on the grass. 

Owner: Jim & Susan Hill

Trainer: George Weaver

Jockey: Joseph Rocco, Jr.

Sales history: $65,000 Keeneland September yearling


ANDALUSITE (bay colt, El Corredor—Avery Hall, by A. P Jet) is a half-brother to Sheza Smoke Show, who won this year’s running of the Grade 3 Senorita on the turf. Their dam has produced three winners from as many starters, with two having won on the turf. Avery Hall herself won a restricted stakes on the dirt at Monmouth Park.

Owner: William J. Punk, Jr. & Philip DiLeo

Trainer: David Donk

Jockey: Manuel Franco

Sales history: $47,000 Keeneland September yearling


QUIMET (chestnut colt, Birdstone—Comanche Star, by Saint Ballado) is a half-brother to Declan’s Warrior, a sprinter who took the Grade 3 Bay Shore; and Canonize, who won the Santana Mile at Santa Anita and placed in a pair of graded stakes. Declan’s Warrior and Canonize are the only winners from four starters out of Comanche Star, who won a single race on the dirt in 13 starts.

Owner: Lucky Shamrock Stable

Trainer: Nicholas Zito

Jockey: Angel Arroyo


SIERRA DELTA (chestnut colt, English Channel—Supreme Council, by Rahy) is out of a placed half-sister to Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner George Vancouver and Saarland, winner of the Grade 2 Remsen and second in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap on the dirt. Supreme Council has produced a pair of turf winners from three starters.

Owner: Zayat Stables

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Luis Saez


VESPERS AT EIGHT (chestnut gelding, Afleet Alex—Classofsixtythree, by Include) is the first foal out of his dam, who was third in the Grade 1 Ruffian Invitational Handicap. Classofsixtythree was 0-0-1 in six starts on the turf.

Owner: Lee Pokoik

Trainer: Gary Contessa

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Sales history: $35,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 4/5 seconds, video)


EPSILON (bay colt, Desert Party—Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) is a half-brother to Alpha, who on the dirt has won the Grade 1 Woodward and dead-heated for the top spot in the Grade 1 Travers; and Mystic Melody, who in France won a listed stakes and was Group 3 placed. Their dam has produced nine winners (six on the turf) from nine starters, including three stakes-placed runners. Munnaya herself won a listed stakes in France and is a half-sister to Sheer Reason and Mall Queen, both listed stakes winners/group stakes-placed runners in France.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh


GUSTNADO (dark bay or brown colt, Smart Strike—Blithe, by Unbridled) is out of an unraced half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegaus. Blithe is by a grandson of Fusaichi Pegasus’s sire, Mr. Prospector. She has produced for winners from as many starters, with no turf winners.

Owner: Matthew Schera

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sales history: $95,000 Keeneland November weanling $285,000 Keeneland September yearling


Race 2, All 2-year-olds, seven furlongs, dirt, 1:33 p.m.

ESCALATE (chestnut colt, Eskendereya—Holy Princess, by Holy Bull) is a half-brother to Silver Heart, a three-time stakes winner at Charles Town; Aspenglow, who won three stakes at Charles Town and captured a single stakes, and was second in the Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie Handicap at Laurel Park; and Silver Cup, who took a restricted stakes at Charles Town. Their dam, who was winless in five starts, has produced five winners from seven starters.

Owner: Ron Winchell

Trainer: Steven Asmussen

Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan

Sales history: $70,000 Keeneland November weanling; $200,000 Keeneland September yearling


GOLD SHIELD (dark bay or brown colt, Medaglia d’Oro—Dream Supreme, by Seeking the Gold) is a half-brother to Grade 1 Hopeful winner Majestic Warrior; Crystal Current, who took the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs; and Evolutionist, who on the turf won the Woodchopper Stakes at the Fair Grounds and was third in the Grade 3 Jaipur. Evolutionist is by El Prado, the sire of Medaglia d’Oro. Gold Shield’s dam was a sprinter who won the Grade 1 Test and Grade 1 Ballerina Handicap and four other graded stakes. His second dam, Spinning Round, also won the Grade 1 Ballerina. Gold Shield was the third most expensive yearling by Medaglia d’Oro to sell at auction in 2013.

Owner: Lane’s End Racing & Kinsman Stable

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sales history: $1 million Keeneland September yearling


A LOT (bay colt, Tapit—Overly Tempting, by In Excess) is out of a mare who was third in the Grade 1 Santa Monica Handicap on a synthetic surface. Overly Tempting, a half-sister to five-time stakes winner Tempting Date, has one previous starter, Chairman Crooks, who has won two races on the turf and one on the turf, and finished second in a juvenile stakes at Canterbury Park.

Owner: Amerman Racing

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $410,000 Keeneland September yearling


Race 4, All 2-year-olds, seven furlongs, dirt, 2:41 p.m.

KICK OFF (bay colt, Bernardini—Game Face, by Menifee) is the second foal and first starter out of his dam, who won six graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Princess Rooney Handicap. Game Face was primarily a sprinter, but did finish second in the Grade 2 Davona Dale Handicap at one mile.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Jose Ortiz




To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.


TimeformUS Race Analysis August 28

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of Thursday's Races at Saratoga

Race 2:  #5 Aggrandizement has spent his career to this point going postward at big prices against better horses. Drops in class for the first time today, and he has enough speed to be a forward factor from start to finish.  
#4 First Bid also drops in class (100 Trainer Rating for Chad Brown with that move), and he switches from turf to dirt (98 rating).  He also has some speed, and Pace Projector places him in front of Aggrandizement early.  
#1A Mischieviously will stretch out for the first time on dirt off the claim by Linda Rice, and he was running TFUS Speed Figures early in his career that suggest he can be tough in here.  
Selections:  5-4-1A-3


Race 3:  Chad Brown has debuted 16 2yos so far at the meet and won with six of them, with four of those wins coming in turf routes.  He starts a pair here in #2 Kerjillion, a homebred who picks up the meet's leading rider, and #5 Offering Plan, who brought $135k after working 10.2 at OBS April.  
#8 Come Around was a $150k purchase in May.  He gets a 91 pedigree rating for turf routes, and his trainer is one of the most reliable in getting 2yos to perform first-time out (95 rating for turf route debuts). 
Selections:  5-2-8-4
Race 4:  #3 Saturday Appeal has been holding solid form recently, and it could be argued easily enough that he was best in each of his last two starts, which came over this track and trip.  Might have gotten the job done last time had his rider not lost his whip late.  
#5 The Brothers Rap likes these two-turn routes and will once again have enough pace to close into today.  Wasn't able to get there last time after a good trip, but he did undergo a shoe repair prior to the race.
#2 Onecats Chance has also been in career-best form lately, and he really benefited from the rider change when going aggressively after the lead and drawing away last time.
Selections:  3-5-2-6
Race 5:  #9 Strong Coffee impressed on debut when coming clear, after sitting a perfect trip, and putting away a solid field of maidens without much fuss.  Runner-up returned to post a good-looking win of his own last weekend.
#2 Hot Tin Roof stretches out and switches to turf off of a convincing maiden win at Presque Isle Downs, but he put in an impressive run through the stretch that day and has the pedigree to handle the changes.  
#6 Designed for War was a comfortable debut winner for Pletcher over this course, but he was allowed to control the early fractions that day and figures to face a sterner test in this spot.
Selections:  9-2-6-1
Race 6:  #3 Grandpa Len got a muddy, sealed track in off-the-turf race going shorter last time and settled for second best.  Prior effort over this track and trip was a good one, and he will be tough for this field to beat if running as well in this spot.  
#1 Maximus Mike switches from turf to dirt and drops all the way down for second start off the layoff.  Broke his maiden over this trip in just his second lifetime start back in April.  
#4 Succesful Brothers is back quickly after a runner-up finish in a similar race last week.  Been piling up the chances, but he has run well enough over a distance of ground to be considered here. 
Selections:  3-1-4-2
Race 7:  #1 Momma Giovanna was away from the gate very awkwardly and raced greenly in her two-turn debut earlier in the meet, but she managed to make a wide run to contention before getting tired behind a convincing winner that day. Think she could have benefited greatly from the experience, and she drew well on the inside.  
#7 Amazing Anne had her debut rained off the grass but stayed in to pick up some experience.  Has a versatile pedigree, and her trainer is having a very good year in NY.  
#5 Smilingsundae, #8 Moondance Joy and # 10 Battle Axe exit the same race going shorter on August 11, and while none of them made much of an impression in that race, they are all eligible to come forward with it behind them.  
Selections:  1-7-5-10
Race 8:  #6 Indian Starlight makes her third start back from a short break and gets major class relief after facing much tougher in her last two starts.  Has fine tactical speed and can land a nice trip tracking up close in this wide-open race.  
#7 Lady's Lunar Luck is first off the claim for sharp connections and she also has a versatile running style.  Last two wins came over this course last summer.  
#4 Scenario Analysis is off the claim by Mike Maker (97 trainer rating off the claim) and is also a prior winner over Saratoga turf.  #9 Edie is in good form, having won two in a row leading into this, but she is facing a tougher crew for the level this time.  
Selections:  6-7-4-1
Race 9:  #1 Chart Topper did a lot of work contesting the pace over 7 furlongs last time, only to be closed down late by a pair of rivals who sat back early.  Won both prior short turf sprints convincingly.
#8 Stormy Rush drops out of a Grade 2 try at Woodbine and fits better in this field.  He's well-drawn outside and has the tactical speed to pull the right trip.  
#3 Golden Rifle has improved from start to start for Chad Brown off the claim, culminating with a 105 TFUS Speed Figure win in last start.  Is facing tougher in here but is difficult to discount.
Selections:  1-8-3-5
Race 10:  #7 Freddie Freud made a promising debut, dueling with an odds-on favorite before settling for 3rd while earning a 73 TimeformUS Speed Figure.  That figure makes him competitive with his more experienced rivals here, and he is eligible to be an improved horse as he makes his first start back as a 3yo.
#3 Party On was outrun early and racing on late behind several of these in his debut earlier in the meet.  He'll add blinkers for start #2 and is also eligible to step forward in a race that lends itself to horses with that profile.  
We liked #4 Mineral Water quite a bit last time, and, while he disappointed, he was stuck racing in behind horses for a long way and was racing on through the stretch once in the clear.  
Selections:  7-3-4-9




TimeformUS Race Analysis August 27

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of Wednesday's Races at Saratoga

Race 2:  #1 Hi Speed Chase was overpowered by subsequent stakes winner Our Caravan when trying to stretch around two turns when last seen.  Makes 3yo debut with a slight class drop, and he has the kind of speed that can be dangerous on the cut-back.  #2 Marsh Creek chased the pace while thee-wide throughout and didn't have enough in the stretch on debut for Pletcher.  Steps down a bit in class and can do better in this field with any improvement.  #6 Alexndeed has come away second best without any excuse in each of his last two starts, so we don't want him on top, but he has drawn well on the outside and is a contender with a typical effort for him.  #4 War of Honor finished gamely for 2nd behind class-dropping speedster Frame in muddy track debut.  He's the lone entrant stepping up in class today but he won't require much improvement to make an impact here.  #5 Sherifco exits the same race as Marsh Creek and he had trouble in there on the far turn.  Will need to improve but is obviously eligible to do so. 
Selections:  1-2-6-4


Race 3:  Tough PG Johnson features seven 2yo fillies, six of whom are stretching out in distance for the first time today. New face #1 Ancient Goddess may have found a good spot to make her stateside debut after taking some money and running well in each of her two starts in France.  New trainer does an excellent job all around and is especially good with runners switching to his barn for the first time.  #4 Flying Tipat is a maiden, but she's also the lone entrant to have been this far already and she finished gamely in her debut behind a pair of runners who were up on an easy pace all the way. Full sister Tapitsfly won this race a few years ago.  #2 Sunday Sonnet has looked quite good on dirt to begin her career, but she has the pedigree to handle this surface switch, being a half to the multiple graded stakes winning turfer Pianist, who has made almost $500k in her career.  
Selections:  1-4-2-6
Race 4:  #1 Beyond Empire may have finally found the right spot here, but he is a horse we are interested in being against going forward, especially when he is a short price, as he will most likely be today.  We'll try to beat him with #3 Gridley Here, who makes his dirt debut today.  He's second off the layoff and eligible to be moving forward in just his second start as a 3yo.  New trainer has solid ratings with runners making their second start out of his barn (87) and with runners stretching out from sprint to route (90).
Selections:  3-1-4-6
Race 5:  #4 In Spite of Mama had speed in main track debut after taking some money and figures tighter second time out for trainer who is six for his last nine with turf sprinters in NY.  #5 Jessica's Ride trailed several of these on July 30th after breaking very awkwardly from the gate.  Never was asked for too much after that, and will get Lasix and blinkers while switching to grass for second start.  Of the firsters, #10 Hot Like Hepburn is a Freud, and she brought $230k after working 9.4 at OBS April.  #12 Madison Blues has plenty of turf pedigree and will debut for a sharp trainer should he draw into the field.
Selections:  4-5-10-7
Race 6:  #8 Club O R starts for excellent debut trainer who sports series of strong ratings across relevant categories with 2yos in maiden claiming races.  #9 Ms Eileen starts for an underrated trainer, and she is a half-sister to a Grade 1 winner in Sis City.  #5 Miss Potenza has the experience that her rivals lack, and she did some running in that turf debut before tiring late.  
Selections:  8-9-5-1
Race 7:  #6 Console ran his Saratoga turf sprint record to an impressive 2-for-2 when speeding to control and holding safe in a sharp turnaround in form on July 21.  If he runs as well again, he will likely win, but we thought that #1 Isn'tlovejustgrand ran equally well that day, and will give him a chance to turn the tables this time.  #4 Stormy Rocit is stepping up in class off a gutsy win over $25k claimers, and he was able to prevail that day despite being forced into a 4-or-5 wide run through the turn.  Will need to step it up vs. the top two.
Selections:  1-6-4-7
Race 8:  #2B Saint Pierre has improved since being turned over to a young trainer off to a strong start this year, and she has already sent out an upset winner at this meet.  We'll take him if he's the half of the entry that starts.  #10 Zane has endured some tough luck in NY recently, with his rider overcommitting to the inside all the way in each of his last two turf starts and then having his scheduled start up here rained off.  He keeps Joe Rocco, Jr. today, who was aboard for that convincing win at Gulfstream back in March.  #7 Sayler's Creek is one length away from winning six straight turf routes, but he's been getting one perfect trip after another in those races and was defeated the one time he didn't have all the best of it.  #6 Manchurian High has been in career form as a 6yo, and enters here directly off of game try going longer in stakes company.
Selections:  2B-10-6-7
Race 9:  #10 Ziptronic is way the horse to beat in this turf sprint after going back-to-back as an 8yo.  Each of his last three TimeformUS Speed Figures are faster than any race his competitors have managed to run recently and Pace Projector puts him in control of the pace in a race that favors runners on or near the lead.  #6 Casa Creek is the likeliest upsetter after enduring tough trips.  We think he can do better with a little luck this time, but he'll have to against Ziptronic.
Selections:  6-10-7-2
Race 10:  #9 Retire Fifty Five had finished 2nd in both prior starts around this level on grass, including last one up here, in which he gave game chase to All Cash, who returned to just miss with winners in his next start with an 88 TFUS Speed Figure.  Will be tough with a similar effort vs. these horses.  #1 Eight Cents tries turf with enough pedigree to handle the switch, and he has speed from an inside post.  #3 Carson's Ten drops back down after failing to get involved vs. better in New Jersey.  He also has some speed and has had only one chance down around this level.  #5 Romans Paradise was behind Retire Fifty Five as the favorite last time without apparent excuse and will have to do better.
Selections:  9-1-3-5