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TimeformUS Analysis Wednesday Jul 23

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Wednesday July 23
 
Race 1:  Steeplechase
 
 
Race 2:  2yo fillies in the first flat race of the day, so we get to see the board to kick off the Pick 4, which may not matter that much with Pletcher's #8 Overspending entered back here.  Marooned on the AE list opening day, she brought $340k at OBS March after powering through a furlong in :10 flat.  Expect her to be a short price, and to be tough to beat.  #1 Designer Soxx is a half to Designer Legs, who won the first three starts of her career as a 2yo last summer, including a roughly run edition of the Grade 2 Adirondack here via DQ.  #6 Kisses for Romeo shows up for a good debut trainer with a fast gate breeze in tow.  
 
Selections:  8-1-6-3
 
 
Race 3:  #4 Madaket Millie has run only on grass to this point, but Chad Brown has a history of success with horses like this switching over to dirt.  #5 Got Lucky has ability but very little speed, so is going to need some help up front, which could happen in this field as she tries her available condition for the first time.  #6 Pretty Fancy is 0-for-2 on dirt but has run well in both of those starts and has the pedigree to take on the added distance here.  #2 Equilateral impressed in winning her debut over a muddy track while earning this field's top figure, and only stepped back mildly with more distance last time. Stretches again, but Wednesday may be the right day to be on her with Got Lucky taking much of the wagering action. 
 
Selections:  4-5-6-2
 
 
Race 4:  #1 Wild Finish endured a pair of very tough trips when returned from a long layoff earlier this year, and had trouble once again when bounced around between horses late last time on turf; trainer has strong record going from turf to dirt (92 rating) and with horses dropping from allowance to claiming (97).  #4 Shot to Win has won two of his last three, earning speed figures of 95 and 92, which are competitive in here, and Pace Projector puts him on the lead.
 
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#7 Santa Elf has also been in good form recently, which cannot be said for some of the others.  #2 Betweenhereandcool takes a big drop in class after a no-show effort off the layoff; his lone career sprint attempt came in his debut in a very tough field on synthetic.
 
Selections:  1-4-7-2
 
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Race 5:  #2 Girlaboutown is very well-bred and comes off of a promising debut when second-best to her talented stablemate Star Grazing; eligible to improve second out, but will be tough in here even if only duplicating that effort.  #1 Kleptocrat debuted for a tag and landed in a tough spot vs. heavily favored drop-down Loomin Lori Lou, but came with a strong run through the stretch and galloped out past the wire.  #8 Pretty Like Me has run well enough in each of her three career starts, but may have to do better vs. the top one.  #4 Saharan Serenade turns back while switching back to dirt, and she finished up well last time on dirt after encountering trouble at the start.
 
Selections:  2-1-8-4
 
 
Race 6:  This race features #1A Artemis Agrotera, a Grade 1-winning two-year-old who was subsequently sent off at a short price in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and was burned off after racing close to a fast pace.  Drops out of another Grade 1 try in her 3yo debut, and will be a very short-priced favorite as she lines up vs. fellow NY-breds for the first time since runaway win over this track last summer.  #4 Irish Sweepstakes comes back to dirt after a pair of decent tries on turf downstate, and she also posted a big win up here as a 2yo. 
 
Selections:  1A-4-6-3
 
 
Race 7:  #12 Late Night Artist has run well in all 4 career starts and drops a bit off a pair of solid efforts at Churchill. She easily outfinished #1 Treaty Oak when they met on May 17th, but that one got the better of the draw for the rematch, which may be enough to reverse that decision.  
 
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#7 All Star Kitten also drops down a bit for Chad Brown, and she was a game 3rd at Monmouth behind an impressive winner when last seen.  #10 Beauty Surprise has speed and has run well enough to win this; trainer change to Clement doesn't figure to hurt her.  That trainer also sends out first-time starter One More Song, a half to three turf winners.
 
Selections:  1-12-7-10
 
 
Race 8:  Solid field of $25k claimers shapes up to be a war, as the 10 entered have combined to rack up 64 wins, and several of these horses are dropping in class here.  #7 Bemata faced a strong field of allowance runners last month and couldn't impact them late while racing on through the stretch.  Win two back came easily, and he figures to have plenty of pace to close into in this spot.  #2 Haverhill endured a couple of very tough trips on the inner dirt over the winter, then was dropped down last time and was a clear 2nd-best at this level.  Trainer returned a pair of claims from off the layoff down at Belmont and they both ran well to be second at big prices, and he will also benefit from any pace that develops.  #3 Bernie the Maestro is another class-dropper, and he has run very well over this track and trip in the past. 
 
Selections:  7-2-5-10
 
 

Race 9:  Interesting group of 3yo fillies will contest the Grade 2 Lake George over 1 1/16 miles on turf. #3 Duff One got off to a promising start to her career here last summer, and continued on through the winter, improving her form until failing to impact a strong field in the Florida Oaks.  Must be ready off the layoff, but she's eligible to be an improved horse since laid off over four months ago, and she'll be a price.  #4 Sweet Acclaim has come up short in all three stateside starts for Chad Brown, but has taken the worst of it trip-wise all three times, and can do better with the right trip this time.  #5 Speed Seeker impressed in burying maidens up front over a demanding one-turn mile at Woodbine as if eligible to be this good.  #2 Daring Dancer was visually impressive in parlaying perfect trips into easy scores through her first three starts, then failed to show up as the favorite last time; needs to rebound. 

Selections:  3-4-5-2
 
 
Race 10:  #1 All Mine Tonight has sprinted on turf only once to this point, but that was also first time back from a layoff, and it resulted in her lone career win; attracts Castellano.  
 
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#2 Royal Jest has also performed well in all three career turf sprint attempts and is an attractive price on the ML.  #5 The Lost Tigress switches to grass after cruising to a much-the-best maiden win off the layoff.  #8 Hot Squeeze is the horse to beat, dropping out of troubled-trip stakes attempt, but she was disappointing with a soft trip vs. NY-breds prior to that, and she may be overbet in this race. 
 
Selections:  1-2-5-7
 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for July 21

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for racing on Monday July 21

Race 1:  Several options to choose from in this contentious opener full of lightly raced NY-bred maidens, but we're most interested in giving #5 Cuantos a chance.  He raced greenly though kickback early before moving right up behind the impressive winner on the lead coming to the stretch; he ultimately came up empty in the stretch, but showed enough ability in there to suggest that he can improve with racing.   Our main backup in the Pick 5 will be #8 Greg's Fourwheeler, who gets a cut-back in distance after failing to impact after a wide run over a mile last time; sprint debut was promising as he was wide there, as well, but raced on gamely. 
 
Selections: 5-8-6-3
 
 
Race 2:  We'll keep an eye on the will-pays in an attempt to get a handle on the first-time starters, but they may have to be able to go a little if #1 Lamontagne stays in for trainer Wesley Ward; gray filly has flashed high speed in all three career starts (2 of those vs. colts), and she was given an ill-advised ride last time when pulled sharply back off the pace after leaving the gate running; has the kind of speed that can make things tough on her inexperienced rivals. 
 
Selections: 1-2-6-8
 
 
Race 3:  Going with speed again in race 3, as #1 Annie Walker takes the next step after finally putting together a full effort in demolition of maiden claiming company last time; Pace Projector doesn't agree that she's fastest of these early, but we think she can make the running from the rail and will benefit from the slight turn-back here.  
 
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#5 Wraith may be the main danger, as she has run several TimeformUS Speed Figures that are faster than Annie Walker's best, but she doesn't have much speed, and this race may not come back to her.
 
Selections:  1-5-2-3
 
 
Race 4:  Toughest race in this Pick 5 sequence here, as 11 maiden claimers line up to go seven furlongs without a standout in the group.  Think there's a chance that drop-downs #4 Tony B and #6 Artemus Paperboy hook up early and hurt each other, but they also may just be better than their somewhat modest competition here.  We're most interested in #5 Wild Skye as an alternative to them, as he raced very greenly in both prior starts, and his lack of professionalism really cost him last time. 
 
Selections:  4-6-5-11
 

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Race 5:  Field full of hard-hitting turf sprinters is open to several, but we're going to cast our lot with #8 Isn'tlovejustgrand, who has been holding strong form since being switched back to grass; parlayed a perfect trip into a win over a salty group of $40k claimers two starts back, and he was dead-game with an aggressive ride contesting the pace going longer last time. 

 
Selections:  8-4-3-5
 
 
Race 6:  #1 Make Your Point remained a disappointment on the main track but ran a better race last time with blinkers on, chasing a very fast pace up the backstretch before inheriting an early lead and then weakening late from her early exertions; turf start two back was only OK at a big price, but that race has produced three horses who have won a race since.  
 
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#3 Fire Ship switched to turf for the first time in career start #9 and found herself hooked into a fast duel early, and was swallowed up by the closers once she put her early rival away; with the pace of that race taken into account, she actually ran the top last TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field, and may be the horse to beat in this weak $40k maiden claimer. We've tried #4 Dixie Gem in the past at big prices, and her turf debut actually wasn't a poor effort at a big price; offered nothing last time, but gets a class drop for this.  #7 Burndownthetown has the pedigree to be a runner, but has so far offered little on the track; dropping in vs. maiden claimers may help.  
 
Selections:  1-3-4-7
 
 
Race 7:  Seen enough of the familiar names in this field lately, and want a new face to try against them.  Most interested in trying #9 Dreamsgonewild off the layoff, as he will offer value.  #11 With Exultation once had promise for Christophe Clement, and has run a couple of good races recently out of town with new blinkers; maybe he just wanted to sprint all along?  #10 Sandy'z Slew is logical as the horse to beat; ran well enough when back to turf-sprinting last time, but that was a race that really held together up front.  We like #6 Western Tryst, who needs some pace to run into, but want a good price in order to use.
 
Selections: 9-11-10-6
 
 
Race 8:  Short but strong field assembled for this $100k stakes, which attracted three Grade 1 winners among the six entered.  If you're looking for an alternative to the more accomplished runners, #3 Bridgehampton has the speed and ran a big race when last seen at Parx, running away from a challenge coming to the stretch and getting clear to a much-the-best win; she has upside, and Pace Projector puts her on the lead to advantage here, but has never been beyond six furlongs.  #4 My Miss Aurelia could easily have been retired with her value as a broodmare already established with three Grade 1 wins, so the fact that she returns to the track suggests that she has something left.  #2 Grace Hall hasn't won a race since the end of her three-year-old season, but she never got going at four, and is now third back from the layoff; not so sure that turning back to shorter races going forward won't suit her well.
 
Selections:  3-4-2-1
 
 
Race 9:  Strong-looking $40k claimer restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime features a trio of well-connected droppers drawn toward the inside in #1 Branded Hand, #3 Belly of the Whale, and #4 Honor the Kitten.  We'll put Honor the Kitten on top for now, but realistically, price should determine where your money should go.  #10 H Town Brown just took a field of $50k maiden claimers wire to wire, and his speed is an asset, but these connections have been getting way overbet since the meet began.
 
Selections:  4-3-1-10
 
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TimeformUS Analysis Sunday July 20

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Sunday July 20th

Race 1: Have some guessing to do in the opener, but the board will be on display for Pick 5 purposes.  #1 G R's Giant goes for an underrated debut trainer, and he has attracted Castellano.   #6 Tax Package is logical for a win-early outfit, and he shows some solid works in his line-up.  Won't dismiss the Pletcher firster, #7 Sandler, too quickly, and #4 Desert Million brought $100k as a yearling for owner/trainer Tony Dutrow.
 
Selections:  1-6-7-4
 
Race 2:  Wide-open $20k claimer may hold the key to the early card multi-race wagers, as there is the potential for an oddball result here, whether it winds up playing out that way or not.  We'll use whichever half of the Jacobson entry starts, though #1 Cease has been disappointing of late and takes a negative class drop, and #1A Groomedforvictory, while the best horse in the race, has never wanted to go this far.  We'll include horses like #4 Most Happy Fella, who is also dropping and who, along with Cease, is already a multiple winner over this track and trip; and #6 Matt and Jesse, who needs pace to run into and may get it here. 
 
Selections:  4-1-6-2
 
Race 3:  #1 Mariel N Kathy didn't get to the early lead last time, and never had a fair chance after that, steadying on the first turn and then getting shuffled back to last exiting the second turn; she is at her best when able to get to the front, and our Pace Projector indicates that she will easily get there in this race, which is going to make her tough.
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We're going to key on her in the multi-race exotics on the early part of this card, and will relegate #6 Maximova to backup status, along with #3 Gathering.  
 
Selections: 1-6-3-5

 

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Race 4:  This race has a different pace scenario in store, as any or all of #1 Carolinian, #2 Ten Items or Less, and #4 Glickman could be showing early speed in here.  We think that plays mostly to the advantage of #3 Lieutenant Seany O, who gets a turn-back in distance to go along with his substantial class drop.  Both #5 Denzel and #7 In the Dark are also eligible to take advantage in here, but Lieutenant Seany O is a better horse than those two.  
 
Selections:  3-4-5-7
 
Race 5:
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Short but solid field of turf sprinters is assembled for the $100k Lucky Coin, and we are interested in #5 Go Blue Or Go Home in this spot.  He has made only five starts sprinting on turf to this point and has won three of those, with the losses coming over a demanding seven furlongs through that long stretch at Woodbine vs. Grade 2 company, and in the Grade 3 Shakertown earlier this year off the layoff.  #2 Strong Impact is a gamer, and he may have been wheeled back too quickly off of his stakes win out of town last time. 
 
5-2-6-3
 
Race 6:  #2 Lay It Down won the first 4 turf races he ran in after being claimed by this outfit, and has landed in a pair of very tough spots since returned to grass recently; this appears to be a well-meant class drop.  #9 Dreaming of Danny got bet and ended a long losing streak for Rudy at this level downstate; figures to have some pace to close into once again.  #8 Assured Victory had turf sprint return washed off to the main track; returns to grass, with more distance attached for second start back, and has races that make him competitive.  #3 Treasury Devil, like the top one, is getting significant class relief.
 
Selections:  2-9-8-3
 
Race 7:  #7 T Sizzle had debut rained off to dirt, and ran well that day giving game chase to a favored winner; full brother to Purely Hot, a multiple stakes winner over synthetic and 2-for-4 lifetime on grass, figures to appreciate the surface switch.  Both #1 Hidden Candy and #9 Eighty Three are interesting firsters.  #2 Eternal Bull improved with the switch to turf last time, and he has dangerous speed.
 
Selections:  7-2-1-9
 
Race 8:  Difficult to trust anyone in this statebred route, but #6 Sir Leslie has been in good form since switched to dirt, and has run the best recent races.  #8 Ultimate Empire finished first in both races over this distance last summer, and will be tough if able to get back to one of those efforts; hasn't been seen in the same form recently.  #5 Fiona's Hero has improved since switched to this barn, and shows a recent two-turn win out of town.  
 
Selections:  6-8-5-1
 
Race 9:  #5 Silky ran very well in her stateside debut despite a tough trip, and then faced a tough task having to get 1 1/2 miles off the layoff last time.  #11 Crown Queen took a step forward making 3yo debut after running better than it may appear last year; much upside here.  #2 Abbey Street has picked up her game since the trainer change; ran very well to be second best last time after no-chance trip two back.
 
Selections:  5-11-2-1
 
Race 10:  #6 Taketheodds has improved with added distance, and still figures to have the most upside in this field.  Trainer tends to keep them going the right way once he gets them good, and her pedigree suggests that more distance will not be her undoing.  #2 Unbridled Forever will appreciate getting away from Untapable in a graded stakes race; was ok when a no-threat 3rd going shorter last time, and should also handle stretching back out.  #1 Stopchargingmaria is the lone graded stakes winner in the field (she's won 3), and the lone winner over 9 furlongs, but her speed figures so far this year give her no edge on this field.
 
Selections:  6-2-1-5
 
Race 11:  #3 Wake Up and Go finished a game second at this level last time after taking a wide trip as the winner controlled the pace; faces a Chad Brown MSW dropper in here, but got the best of the draw.  #11 Hushhushmushmush is taking a needed, and not negative, class drop after coming up short in 5 attempts at the MSW level.  
 
Selections:  3-11-9-12
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for July 19

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Saturday, July 19

 
Race 1:  #7 Kamarius made no impression as a rare big-priced Pletcher first-time starter at Monmouth three weeks ago, but we have reason to believe that he'll be a much different horse in Saturday's opener.  He broke slowly in that debut run and was never involved in the running at any point, but the winner was an uncoupled stablemate of his from the Pletcher barn who was sent off at 3/5 odds.  We'll view that effort as simply a spin around the track to help prepare Kamarius for this stretch out in distance and switching of surfaces, as his pedigree suggests he'll improve with both. He is by Candy Ride and is a half-brother to the Grade 2 turf winner Sarach.  #6 Luck of the Kitten is a first-time starter for powerful connections, and he is a half-brother to the stakes-winning turf runner Empire Builder.   #9 Lockport will also switch surfaces and stretch out after a dirt sprint debut, and his trainer gets strong ratings with the dirt-to-turf switch (100), second- time starters (100), and first turf (91); $105k feels like a lot to pay for a yearling by Temple City, so maybe there is something there.  The first-time starter with the best pedigree is #2 Dubai Sky, who is a full-brother to Twirling Candy (a graded stakes winner over all three surfaces, and winner of 7 of his 11 career starts) and a half to the Grade 2 turf winner Ethnic Dance; caveat being that his Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is a lowly rated 37 with first-time starters in turf routes.  #8 Mr. Discreet debuts for Pletcher and also has a big pedigree, being out of a dam who is a half-sister to Grade 1 winners Discreet Cat and Discreetly Mine, though they were dirt horses.
 
Selections:  7-6-9-2
 
 
Race 2: There are questions regarding #9 Groupthink, who was last seen dueling down eventual multiple graded stakes- placed Derby entrant Uncle Sigh at the end of last year.  He's not an easy horse to take a short price on, but he's landed in the right kind of field for his return, and he drew very well on the outside.  #5 Handy Stan may be his most dangerous rival, as he has plenty of speed, and Pace Projector likes his chances to get comfortable in the early going; 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned for his last race is tops in the field by a clear margin.  #3 Sidearm is consistent and is second back from a short break, but will need some pace to close into and is running out of chances quickly. 
 
Selections:  9-5-3-2
 
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Race 3:  Interested to see what we get from firster #3 Contrary Opinion, who has a big speed pedigree for a win-early outfit in Klaravich Stables Inc; trainer isn't known to crank them up, but put a fast breeze into this horse at Delaware a week ago.  We'll look to get the experienced horses home in this race, and prefer #6 Bird Now to #5 Cosmic Gold.  Bird Now ran a better race than it may appear at first asking here last summer, getting bet down to 6/1 in a field that contained sub-2/1 shots from both Pletcher and Asmussen, and then showing speed to get into a fast duel with the eventual winner Dunkin Bend.  He's caught a pair of muddy sealed tracks since then and may turn it around with fast going on Saturday.  Cosmic Gold switches to Castellano for his second start (trainer gets 88 rating with second-time starters, as compared to his overall 74 rating) and was sent through on the rail in his Parx debut, which is often not the place to be on that track.  
 
Selections:  6-5-3-2
 
 
Race 4:  We'll see what happens with this field full of first-time starters, which contains two from the loaded Pletcher barn, and an Asmussen, as well.  For what it's worth, #7 Money Changer, the preferred one of the Pletcher duo, brought $100k after working a 1/4 mile in :20.1 at Keeneland.  We're more interested in #5 Smithereen, who shipped north for Wesley Ward after posting a fast breeze at Gulfstream Park just over two weeks ago; wondering if his plans were changed after that.  #1 Special Invitation reportedly buried a field in a training race in Puerto Rico back in early May; has a spotty NY work tab since then, but may be more dangerous than he appears at first glance.  #4 Now We Are Free shows a series of slow breezes up to his debut; is out of a dam who went 10-for-20 and won multiple stakes in her career en route to over $420k in earning, and her first two foals to race are both multiple winners. 
 
Selections:  5-7-6-1
 
 
Race 5:  #3 Majestic Hussar finally posted a couple of long-overdue wins when returned from the layoff as a 4yo, and he has big speed at his disposal, which Pace Projector indicates will be to his advantage.  
 
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#1A Cherokee Artist is a solid old-timer, and he exits a strong effort, defeating a good field of sprinters in a stakes race at MTH; figures tough if he's half Jacobson sends.  #2 Sam Sparkle parlayed a good, aggressive ride into an upset victory at the end of May but is effective from farther off the pace as well and can be a late danger if a contested pace develops.  Both #1 Be Bullish and #6  Frazil are hard-hitting old warriors who can win this with their best efforts.  
 
Selections:  3-1A-2-6
 
 
Race 6:  #8 Readyheartandsoul has faced solid main track competition, and took a step forward in off-the-turf event last time; has plenty of grass in his female family, as his dam was a turf winner and she is out of Try N Sue, who won the Yaddo here a few years ago and is a sister to several good turf runners.  #12 Thurgood may be the horse to beat making his second start for Clement, and he showed something after encountering some trouble behind his stablemate Point Roll in his debut; tough post for him to overcome.  Both #10 Boston Strong and #3 Mr Ciolko exit late-running efforts going shorter at Belmont last month, and both are open to much improvement.  #11 Forever Utopia has had the most chances, and it is annoying that he's settled for second-best in 4 of 5 career starts on grass, but he has good form and is a contender.  
 
Selections:  8-12-10-3
 
 
Race 7:  Good field of nine assembled for the Grade 2 Sanford, with the strength on the outside in the form of #8 Nonna's Boy and #9 Cinco Charlie.  Nonna's Boy impressed in speedy debut for Pletcher, earning this field's top TimeformUS Speed Figure (90) by a clear margin, and his effort was flattered when runner-up Bustin It returned to demolish a field at Belmont on closing day.  
 
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Cinco Charlie has the advantage of a pair of races under his belt (one of them a graded stakes win) and of having already traveled this six-furlong distance; will be sternly tested in this spot, but he's already proven to be up for a race in the stretch.  We'll also make a backup ticket covering #4 Big Trouble, who impressed in his winning debut for a dangerous trainer while not appearing to be comfortable with that short five-furlong trip.
 
Selections:  8-9-4-3
 
 
Race 8:  Good race to stand against shorter prices on the ML like #9 Tasmona, who can win but just doesn't appear to be that good, and  #10 Devilish Love, who convincingly beat a very weak field last time.  We've been waiting for #1 Fade to Black to switch off the main track, as her pedigree is heavily slanted towards turf and synthetic (her dam is a sister to graded stakes winning turfers Dreaming of Anna and Justenuffhumor); drew a great inside post for this distance on the inner and figures to be a price.  #11 Weave caught a fast pace to close into over shorter last time, but was unlucky in the stretch when unable to get herself out into the clear, and then had to steady late; can do better, especially if the projected fast pace for this race develops for her.  #5 Stock Fund has finally put things together, after taking 23 starts to break her maiden, and she was dead-game trying to close into a tough pace scenario last time. 
 
Selections:  1-11-5-7
 
 
Race 9:  #2 Pyrite Mountain switches to Pletcher for his 4yo debut after flashing ability to begin his career.  Already a stakes winner over synthetic, he's lightly raced over turf but has run well in all three starts over this surface, and it's encouraging that he showed more speed when last seen at Woodbine, as those tactics could serve him well in this spot.  #10 North Star Boy didn't draw particularly well, but he's reliable to show up and run his race, and was a winner here last summer.  #5 Star Channel has never been one of our favorites, but he has a race to get to that would be very tough on this field, and he's generally a fair price.  #3 Which Market is another who can win, but he had all the best of it while closing into a fast and contested pace over a shorter distance last time. 
 
Selections:  2-10-5-3
 
 
Race 10:  
 
Saturday's running of the Grade 1 Diana drew a field of 10 fillies and mares and could hardly have come up a stronger race.  Each one of the 10 entered is already a graded stakes winner, half of them at the Grade 1 level.  Both #3 Somali Lemonade and #6 Discreet Marq are contenders, so let's start with them, as they may hold the keys to this race.  
 
Somali Lemonade has turned her career around with the addition of blinkers for her 5yo season.  She has shown more speed with her new equipment, and parlayed her new running style into a Grade 3 win at Pimlico and two other solid placings at the graded stakes level, including a game third-place finish in the Grade 1 Just a Game last time.  She set a solid pace that day with pressure throughout, and dug in determinedly at the end to hold onto her placing.  The question surrounding this race is:  Will she be allowed to get more comfortable up front and by so doing become more dangerous, or will Discreet Marq, who was up there applying pressure to her throughout the Just a Game, come after her early again?  
 
If she gets control, she's a big factor.  But with Discreet Marq in the field, it feels as if she is in for more of the same in the Diana, and that makes things very tough for her.  Same goes for Discreet Marq, who has shown in the past that she can rate and run but may be in a tough position in this race, having to keep Somali Lemonade honest up front.  
 
#4 Emollient is one of those Grade 1 winners, although the American Oaks field that she defeated last year was hardly of top-level quality.  She also has some speed and could be a pace factor in this race if ridden with that intent, but she has always been something of an in-and-outer.  In her defense, when she shows up with her best stuff, as she often seems to do on synthetic surfaces, she's quite good.  Her top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 111, earned in her valiant BC Filly & Mare Turf effort last year, gives her a big chance in this race--if she can repeat it.  
 
These horses are all contenders in the Diana, but we aren't sure what we'll get from any of them in this race, which makes it tough for us to back them with any confidence.  Because of that, we will go to a couple of different horses for our play.  #10 Tannery is as consistent as a horse can be, putting up TimeformUS Speed Figures between 104 and 114 for each and every start dating back to the end of 2012.  She was a very good 2nd last time out, in the Grade 2 New York, as she wound up in the unenviable position of having to chase a very good horse through a strong final fraction.  
 
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She came away second-best on the day, but it was yet another good effort for this horse, who seems to show up with nothing but good efforts.  We think she is the horse to beat, in a lot of ways, and will make her a major part of our play.
 
The other horse for us is #8 Alterite, who returns from the layoff for Chad Brown.  Alterite just missed vs. Group 1 company in France as a 3yo before arriving stateside to compete in the better turf races for her division at the end of the year.  That move paid off right away, as she came through with a much-the-best win in the Grade 1 Garden City over, among others, Discreet Marq and Emollient.  From there she went to Keeneland for the other major prize for 3yo turf fillies, the QEII.  Racing wide and too close to an enterprising pace that day, Alterite stayed on gamely all the way to the end but fell short of holding off the closing winner.  She then backed that race up quite well when 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf behind Dank and Romantica.  The layoff is a big question for her in this race, and we would not be thrilled to take her at the ML price of 3/1, but in a field this loaded, she may drift to a better price.  If she does, we'll be there to make sure she gets into our play.  
 
We will also include #2 Abaco somewhere, as she has developed strongly for Shug McGaughey and exits a fine try going longer last time behind the highly promising Riposte.  
 
Selections:  8-10-2-3
 
 
Race 11:  #2 All Included figures to take plenty of action here off of his visually impressive win in his turf debut downstate, but that race came back a little light on our speed figures, and he got a great trip in there in a race where the closers failed to show up.  We're against him at a short price, and are most interested in trying #3 Alarmed Ndangerous as he makes his second start back from a layoff after getting in a good-looking prep run earlier this month; has run well up here each of the last two years, including a pair of upset wins in 2012, and seems set up for success once again.  #7 McIlroy can contend, as he really picked up his game off the claim by Chad Brown and then found himself up against it last time in a race that was slow early and fast late.  Last time was the time for #11 Make a Decision, as he was likely to emerge victorious if he could have found room in the stretch; feels like a bit of fool's gold in this race.  #6 Alakazan Alakazan shows just one win, which came in his debut in his native Brazil, but he's run well in his US starts when logically placed. 
 
Selections:  3-7-6-2 
 
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