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Forbes' Firsters

 

Forbes’ Firsters is a series that takes a glance at the pedigrees and sales histories of select 2-year-olds who are making their debuts in maiden special weight races at Aqueduct Racetrack, Belmont Park, or Saratoga Race Course. Many of history’s best horses have commenced their careers in New York, and Forbes’ Firsters will help fans find the stars of tomorrow as they head postward for the first time.

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, July 27, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, July 27, 2014

Race 1, 2-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 1 p.m.

MISS ALWAYS READY (dark bay or brown filly, More Than Ready—Miss Seffens, by Dehere) is a full-sister to More Than Real, who won the Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and was third in the Grade 1 Garden City. Their dam was a sprinter who won stakes at Turfway Park, Oaklawn, Prairie Meadows, Ellis Park, and Keeneland. She was unplaced in her lone turf start. Miss Seffens has produced two winners from four starters, with More Than Ready being her only turf winner.

Owner: Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $400,000 Keeneland April 2-year-old (one furlong in 9 3/5 seconds, video)

 

SKINNER BOX (dark bay or brown filly, Freud—Talkin Indian, by Indian Charlie) looks to become the first winner out of her dam, who won a pair of turf races and is a half-sister to Better Talk Now, whose five Grade 1 wins included a score in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Talkin Indian also is a half-sister to turfer B.A. Way, who won a listed stakes at Delaware Park and was third in the Grade 3 Belmont Breeders’ Cup Handicap. Talkin Indian’s only previous starter was unplaced in one start.

Owner: Patsy Symons

Trainer: Richard Violette, Jr.

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Sales history: $190,000 OBS April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, video)

 

HAIL CORNELL (bay filly, All American—Cayuga’s Waters, by Langfuhr) is a half-sister to Glorious View, who won the Grade 2 Vagrancy Handicap on the dirt; Cascadilla Falls, who took the Lucy Scribner on the turf; and Highball, third in this year’s Grade 3 American Derby on the grass. Their dam won four races, including an off-the-turf edition of the Pebbles at Belmont.

Owner: Laue Ranch

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Manuel Franco

 

ALSO ELIGIBLE

CALAMITY KATE(bay filly, Yes It’s True—Justmeandmyshadow, by Tiznow) is the first foal out of her dam, an unplaced half-sister to Grade 1 Champagne winner Officer. Calamity Kate’s second dam, St. Helens Shadow, won a listed stakes at Ruidoso.

Owner: George & Lori Hall

Trainer: Kelly Breen

Jockey: Paco Lopez

 

Race 3, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, dirt, 2:02 p.m.

PAULASSILVERLINING (bay filly, Ghostzapper—Seeking the Silver, by Grindstone) is a half-sister to this year’s Grade 1 Carter Handicap winner Dads Caps and stakes-placed sprinter Liza Too. Their dam is a winning half-sister to Charles Town stakes victor Choctaw Ridge.

Owner: Vincent Scuderi

Trainer: Michelle Nevin

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

 

HEADMISTRESS (bay filly, Bernardini—Headline, by Machiavellian) is a half-sister to Jilbab, who won the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, and Ancient World, who took the Group 1 Premio Vittorio di Capua in Italy and Group 3 Winter Hill in England. Jilbab is by A.P. Indy, the sire of Bernardini. Their dam is an unraced half-sister to Group 1 William Hill Futurity winner Dunbeath and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity hero Saratoga Six.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

 

HOPEFAITHJOY (bay filly, Lookin At Lucky—R Lady Joy, Vicar) is out of a mare who won the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks and was third in the Grade 1 Alabama. R Lady Joy has produced one previous starter, Quite Spectacular, a claimer who has won five races so far in his career.

Owner: StarLadies Racing

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $270,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

ZEEZEE ZOOMZOOM (gray/roan filly, Congrats—Zee Zee, by Exchange Rate) is out of a turf runner who won the Happy Ticket at Louisiana Downs as a 2-year-old and captured the Edgewood at Churchill Downs and was third in the Grade 2 Lake George and Grade 3 Regret. Zee Zee’s only foal to race, Queenofzeenile, has won a single race in 10 starts.

Owner/trainer: Amy Tarrant

Jockey: Joseph Rocco, Jr.

Sales history:  $80,000 Keeneland September yearling; $135,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 3/5 seconds, video)

 

ALSO ELIGIBLE

DIVINE PRAISES (bay filly, Medaglia d’Oro—Grand Prayer, by Grand Slam) is a half-sister to Malibu Prayer, who won the Grade 1 Ruffian Invitational Handicap, and Valid, who has placed in the Grade 3 Fred W. Hooper Handicap and Grade 3 Salvator Mile. Their dam won a minor stakes at Monmouth Park and is a half-sister to Grade 2 Bonnie Miss heroine Tap Dance.

Owner: Besilu Stables

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Joel Rosario

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

 

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, July 26, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, July 26, 2014

Race 3, All 2-year-olds, six furlongs, dirt, 2:02 p.m.

THIRTYSILVERPIECES (dark bay or brown ridgling, Badge of Silver—Crumbs of Comfort, by Pulpit) is a half-brother to Amen Kitten, a son Kitten’s Joy whose accomplishments include a win in the Tropical Park Derby on the turf and was third in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. The only other starter out of Crumbs of Comfort is winless in seven starts.

Owner: Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey

Trainer: Wesley Ward

Jockey: Robby Albarado

 

DA JENIUS   (bay colt, Malibu Moon—Madcap Escapade, by Hennessy) is a half-brother to Mi Sueno, a daughter of Pulpit who in her brief career won the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante and Grade 3 Sorrento. Both Da Jenius and Madcap Escapade are by sons of A.P. Indy. Da Jenius’ dam was primarily a sprinter, but she did win the Grade 1 Ashland and was third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks over a route of ground. She also won the Grade 2 Forward Gal, Grade 2 Shirley Jones Handicap, and Grade 3 Madison. Madcap Escapade is a half-sister to Grade 1 Ballerina winner Dubai Escapade.

Owner: Southern Equine Stable

Trainer: Eric Guillot

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $350,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

TODAY’S AGENDA (gray/roan colt, Monba—Alison’s Winner, by Pine Bluff) is a half-brother to Nellie Cashman, who took last year’s Grade 3 Virginia Oaks on the turf. Their dam, who has produced three winners from as many starters, won two stakes at Thistledown and a single stakes at Mountaineer.

Owner: Alex & JoAnn Lieblong

Trainer: Anthony Dutrow

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $75,000 OBS August yearling; $180,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 2/5 seconds, video)

 

CAPTAIN MOSS (bay colt, Quality Road—Deal of the Decade, by Tiznow) is out of an unplaced half-sister to Clear Mandate, who earned Grade 1 victories in the Shuvee Handicap, Spinster, and John A. Morris; Dream Scheme, who took the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Handicap; and A Diehl, a two-time winner of the listed J. Kenneth Self Shelby County Boys and Girls Club Stakes at Indiana Downs. Captain Moss’ second dam, Dream Deal, won the Grade 1 Monmouth Oaks and was a half-sister to Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Crème Fraiche.

Owner: Hurricane Boys & Richard Pell

Trainer: Nicholas Zito

Jockey: Joe Bravo

Sales history:  $100,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

ALDRIN (chestnut colt, Malibu Moon—Tap Your Heels, by Unbridled) is a half-brother to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner and top sire Tapit and to two-time stakes-placed runner Overandabeauty. Both Aldrin and Tapit are by sons of A.P. Indy, with Tapit being a son of Pulpit. Aldrin’s dam won a restricted at Colonial Downs and is a half-sister to three-time Grade 1 winner Rubiano.

Owner: Mt. Brilliant Farm, Gainesway Stable & Robert LaPenta

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sales history:  $1 million Keeneland April 2-year-old (one furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, video)

 

ALSO ELIGIBLE

COMPETITIVE EDGE(bay colt, Super Saver—Magdalena’s Chase, by Cape Town) is the first foal out of his dam, a sprinter who placed in stakes at Remington Park, Sunland Park, and Turf Paradise.

Owner: Nancy Favreau & Kathy Psoinos

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $750,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 seconds, video)

  

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

 

TimeformUS Analysis for July 25

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Friday, July 25

 
Race 1:  Difficult to find anything clever to say about the opener. The favorite, #7 Silver Union, takes the required drop while adding Lasix. The second choice, #5 Vision of Mine, takes an even bigger drop after running into a pair of repeat winners to begin her career.  Nothing so compelling about the others, unless you're interested in first-time starter #3 Lovely Elle, whose dam was a debut winner in NY for Pletcher several years ago and went on to win seven more races in her career.  
 
Selections:  7-5-2-3
 
 
Race 2:  #5 Shaunna Alexandra has earned a pair of 90+ TimeformUS Speed Figures for her last two races, which is rarified air in this field of $20k claimers.  Pace Projector indicates that she will be forwardly placed in a race that favors front-runners, and we expect her to be tough in this field.  
 
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#2 My Place is the horse to beat as she is dropped out of allowance company for Mott, which is something he does well from a limited sample (99 Trainer Rating).  #8 Valerie Victoria comes up a little light on our speed figures, but she's making just her second start off the layoff, and she raced on gamely to be second-best last time after chasing the pace throughout.
 
Selections:  5-2-8-9
 
 
Race 3:  Well-matched field of older turf horses set to go 1 1/2 miles here, with the distance likely to be the equalizer. Favored entry of #1 Artic North and #1A Clearbrook have stayed the longer trips most effectively, which is a strong point in their favor.  #4 Saffron Hall has competitive form up to 9 furlongs on turf, but he won over longer on dirt, and this barn is due to break out at some point.  #7 Rapscallion has never really delivered on his early promise, but he did run very well in a strong field over 1 1/4 miles two starts back. 
 
Selections:  4-7-1/1A-6
 
 
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Race 4:  This is a good NY-bred sprint that brings together several horses showing improved recent form and is open to just about any one of the seven entered.  We are most interested in #5 Leilani's Ticket. He is one of the biggest prices on the board, and he has really improved his form since being claimed by these connections here last summer.  He has run very well twice while sprinting on dirt this year, posting a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his late-running second over the inner dirt on March 8th, and coming right back with a 94 despite trouble at the break next time out.  His recent turf form is fine, but he's better on dirt and will be running late.  #6 Horatio has turned his life around since turned over to Jimmy Toner, and his last race was his best yet.  #7 Dan's Gold is another who is listed at a big price on the ML, and he has dangerous speed to use from his outside post.  #1 The Big Deluxe also has speed and may be forced to use it from the rail as he steps up off the claim. 
 
Selections:  5-6-7-1
 
 
Race 5:  #9 Animal Style is the horse to beat here as he drops down in class after putting in a strong run to fall just short vs. much better last time. Pace Projector indicates that he'll have a fast pace to set him up.  Appears these connections, who have gotten off to a slow start here for the second year in a row, are starting to look for wins.  Interested to see what we get from #6 Road Agent, who switches to a turf sprint off the claim. He has the pedigree to handle it and may appreciate a change after tailing off on the dirt recently.  
 
Selections:  9-6-2-10
 
 
Race 6:  Solid entry of #1 Guilt Trip and #1A Code West entered here, but only one will go, with Leparoux named on both.  Whichever one goes figures to be the horse to beat in here. But we're going to play multi-race wagers mostly through #3 Qualify, who is on the upswing for Graham Motion after winning all three starts so far this year.  May need to step forward one more time here, but he's been impressive during the current streak. We're skeptical of his more accomplished, and so far faster, rivals.  
 
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Selections:  3-1/1A-6-2
 
 
Race 7:  Wide-open turf maiden race.  #3 Hope Cross makes her third career start for Chad Brown, and she could easily have won either of her first two with any luck at all.  She had trouble at the break of her debut, and wound up getting bumped late while rallying through traffic to just miss.  She was then heavily backed for her second start at Belmont, only to find herself hooked into a fast duel and getting run down by a perfect-trip closer.  #2 Shift Colors came with a big run on the outside when second best in her turf debut in Kentucky and is eligible for better.  #5 Rapid Repair made a promising debut on grass before switching to the main track for Mott, but she is also entered into an easier spot on turf on Saturday.  
 
Selections:  3-2-5-9
 
 
Race 8:  #4 Noble Doss has returned running since being switched to dirt off the layoff. He won easily over a one-turn mile vs. weaker, and then rushed up to contest the pace after missing the break last time, staying gamely to the end. 9yo #2 Writingonthewall is back to dirt for sharp connections after getting a short break.  He's been in good form and likes to win.  #9 Bug Juice easily handled Noble Doss at the end last time, but he got a perfect trip that day and may be better over a wet track.  #10 Regulus has the top last-out speed figure in the field, but he was facing just three others in that off-the-turf event, and he got loose on the lead.
 
Selections:  4-2-9-7
 
 
Race 9:  $100k Curlin stakes for 3yos may have a different look come post time, as ML favorite #1 Commanding Curve and third choice #6 Cousin Stephen are both cross-entered into Saturday's Jim Dandy.  Either way, we'll take our chances with #3 Protonico, who impressed in contesting the pace all the way to a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his first start for Pletcher.  Pedigree suggests taking on more distance should be no issue.  This trip may be pushing the limits of how far #10 Life in Shambles wants to go, but he has speed and was a very good 3rd last time after being forced to gun to the lead on a solid pace from his inside post.   
 
Selections:  3-1-10-2
 
 
Race 10:  #3 Illapa made a positive impression on turf last year as a 2yo, and she got in what appeared to be a useful prep going shorter off the layoff downstate.  We liked what we saw from #5 Jolene in her turf debut last time, as she was forced to try her rally up the inside and just missed getting 2nd from #4 Knotty Pine, who was controlling the pace that day. Well-bred #9 Fresh Feline could be dangerous in here after racing very greenly in her debut, but we have been leery of runners from this barn in NY all spring and summer, and want to see some life out of their runners before getting on board.  
 
Selections:  3-5-9-1A 
 
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for July 24

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Thursday, July 24
 
Race 1:  Steeplechase.
 
Race 2:  Of the three experienced 2yos entered to go here, #6 Louisiana Brown interests us the most. He brought a game challenge to troubled Sanford runner-up Mr. Z in his debut before falling just short.  Both #3 Battle Red and #2 Revolver are eligible to step forward a bit with a race under their belts, but we were less impressed with their debut efforts.  Always have to take Pletcher firsters seriously. Therefore, #4 Bully Proof will be part of our play.  
 
Selections:  6-4-3-2
 
 
Race 3:  #2 Miss Electronica is lightly raced, and thus less exposed than her rather modest competition in this $40k maiden claimer. That may be reason enough to take her in here. But she also faced a much tougher group for this level in her debut. The race had a race rating of 79 (vs. today's 66) and she ran into MSW dropper Loomin' Lori Lou in that spot.  
 
7_24_R3
 
#5 Keep Right has some angles in play, as she drops in for a tag for the first time while also turning back and switching from turf to dirt.  We would also take a long look at firster #8 Built in a Day in a field like this, as she is well-connected. Her trainer doesn't excel first-time out but did saddle Andromeda's Risk to a 41/1 upset in a maiden claiming debut earlier this year.
 
Selections:  2-5-8-9
 
 
Race 4:  #6 Misszippityslewda took a bad stumble at the start, then rallied gamely through some traffic late to be along for second behind a heavily favored front-running winner last time. Then she galloped out strongly after the wire. She deserves another chance.  #1A Ultimate Shopper has dangerous speed, and also has a pair of wins over this seven-furlong distance, which is as many wins as the rest of the field combined. We've always felt that #3 Lady Gracenote was better over sprint distances, so getting back to seven furlongs is a good thing for her. She has hit the board in each of her last six starts sprinting, while posting a pair of wins in those races. 
 
Selections:  6-1A-3-5
 
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Race 5: With plenty of speed signed on, this turf sprint for maiden fillies figures to feature a contested pace . We're interested in giving #10 Julie's Jewelry a chance in here off the trainer change to Clement. She was well-backed for her debut and figures to handle grass, being a half-sister to Saucey Evening, a stakes winner over turf in her career.  
 
7_24_R5
 
Our other horse will be #3 Miss Lech, who returns for Chad Brown to make what is essentially her 3yo debut. This trip may come up a little short for her. But she was a very good 2nd over seven furlongs on grass last September, and she should have some pace to close into here. 
 
Selections:  10-3-2-5
 
 
Race 6:  #4 Haldane has some hang in her, and it's not exactly encouraging that she has failed to be competitive at Finger Lakes recently, but she is entered at the right level today and figures to have some pace to run at.  #8 Saichi Sweepin has maintained consistent form despite winning just one of her seven starts since arriving on this circuit last September, and she has the best speed from a nice outside post.  Both #1 Bridget Moloney and #2 Bird House have become pace dependent, but we thought the former ran the better race of the two when behind front-running winner Sweet Sway at this level on June 27th. 
 
Selections:  4-8-1-2
 
 
Race 7:  #8 Powerful Instinct showed big improvement once switched to this barn at the end of last year, and wasn't seen to best effect when trying to close from behind a powerful front-running winner off the layoff as a new gelding.  Eligible to go forward in his second start of the year, and Pace Projector suggests he'll have the right set-up for his closing style.  #5 Captain Gaughen's gradual improvement last year as a 3yo is somewhat hidden by a pair of races against the flow last October at Belmont (up dueling a fast pace on the 3rd, and then caught behind a joke of a slow pace on the 19th).  Can do better here in his third start back, and he'll be a price. 
 
Selections:  5-8-11-3
 
 
Race 8:  #2 Pura Vida Zen improved to a new career top speed figure second off the claim and is now shipped straight to Saratoga by a trainer who scores a strong 96 rating with last-out winners.  Not much separating #3 Wild Kay, #6 Wholelotaroyalty and #7 Heir to Dare on recent figures, and they all have speed. 
 
Selections:  2-3-7-6
 
 
Race 9:  $100k Quick Call a real puzzle, with plenty of speed signed on (see Pace Projector) and only a single prior grass winner among the seven entered.  
 
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That turf winner is #3 Escapist, who has impressed in beginning his career two-for-two, but has done so in front-running fashion, and that style may not play in this spot.  The expected pace scenario may make #2 Harpoon the one to beat, as he is one who will be running late for Pletcher, but we think #6 Glacken Too is going to benefit from the turn-back out of a fast-paced route and will take him to post a mild upset. 
 
Selections:  6-2-4-5
 
 
Race 10:  Have no good ideas in wide-open finale that is expected to feature a fast pace. At least #10 Little T. Louie showed some life in his turf debut last time, and he isn't expected to be looking for the early lead.  #8 All Over Me has the best credentials to this point and drops back down as the horse to beat.  #4 Bapu, who is first-time Lasix for second lifetime start, and firster #11 Chasin Chama have landed in the right kind of field, assuming they have any ability. 
 
Selections:  10-8-11-4 
 
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