Sunday, August 24, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis of Monday's Races at Saratoga
Race 2: #2 Swell had much early trouble in the Mike Lee, unnoticed by the chart caller, and had lost all chance by the time they hit the far turn, with the talented Captain Serious getting away easy on the lead. Finished gamely to be second-best to that horse one start prior, and he may get the right trip today, with a pair of talented and lightly raced horses drawn outside, both of whom have speed. #6 Giantinthemoonlite made a sharp debut at Belmont back in the middle of May when overpowering maidens, but hasn't been seen since. Not sure where he is right now, but if all is well with him leading into this, he's going to be tough. #7 Cuantos was much more professional second-time out after racing greenly in his debut, and he was ridden out to an impressive score of his own. Drew well on the outside, allowing his rider some options.
Race 3: Competitive turf sprint goes as middle leg of the early Pick 3. We want to give #2 Magical Moon a chance to re-find her best form after being steadied out to last at the start prior to getting wired last time out. She has a big race in her when things go right, and she's run very well twice over this turf course, including last summer when getting the best of a fast duel only to succumb late.
#7 Good So Far is a question mark in this race, but one we aren't sure we want to be knocked out by. She was caught three-wide in a moderately paced sprint at Belmont last time, and she has been in a pair of turf starts that were won on the front end since arriving stateside. #5 Spun Silky needs pace to close into, but she may get it in this spot, and she faced much better than this when third-best last time.
Race 4: #5 Skerkis had to steady hard at the break when finishing well behind a 1/9 Pletcher firster on debut, and he will now turn back in distance while switching from turf to dirt and dropping in class. Deserves another chance back on the main track, and this is likely the proper level. Trainer Carlos Martin scores impressive trainer ratings with 2yo maiden claimers, and he shows 3 wins and 4 seconds from the last 9 he has debuted at Saratoga. His #9 Grandpa's King shows up here with some good works on his tab. #3 Mr Classic Seneca drops in class for Steve Asmussen and he's shown the kind of speed that can make him dangerous in a race like this. #7 Banker's Boss has more of a turf pedigree, but his trainer has already saddled a couple of debut winners in maiden claiming company at this meet.
Race 5: Chad Brown has (as usual) had a very good meet at saratoga with his 2yo first-time starters, winning with 5 of them overall, including 3 on turf. Four of those debut winners have come for the owners of #11 Thebeatofthestreet, who brought $200k after working 10.1 at OBS April. Chad's other firster, #9 Lady Eli, is a half-sister to Bizzy Caroline, who was a multiple Grade 3 winner on turf in her career. #4 Puca got in a prep sprinting on dirt earlier in the meet for Bill Mott and will now switch to a turf route, which figures to suit this half-sister to Finnegan's Wake (earner of over $635k on grass) much better. #1 My Senses is out of a dam who was a Grade 3 turf winner, and #6 Classy Teacher worked 10-flat at the same sale that produced Thebeatofthestreet, and her trainer can win with first-time starters.
Race 6: #2 Love to Run has some other speed to deal with in this spot, but if he goes from the rail we think he can get control of this race early, and we don't have much confidence in the closers in this race. #6 Bemata failed to pick up his feet up here opening weekend and was claimed for $25k. Returns for $20k, and is a question mark off of that last race. #1A Ancient Rome is making his third start back from a long layoff, and he will benefit if a contested pace develops, which is certainly possible. He was bumped into a stumble out of the gate last time and can do better here, though his entrymate, #1 Readthebyline, is a better horse.
Race 7: #3 Zamquick looked good blowing a field out in Kentucky two starts back, then failed to show her speed up here on opening day and got wired by Aventure Love on a moderate pace. Drops down looking for a win for connections who have struggled up here, and she is the speed.
#6 Benny's Bullet failed to stretch out effectively when up in class off the claim, but will appreciate the turn back in this race, and is entered back at the right level. #4 Ever Awesome has shown speed going longer and just missed in last turf start back in December. Back down in class for first start off the layoff. #7 Bossanova Lady is a new face to this group, which isn't a bad thing, and she has turf pedigree for an underrated trainer.
Race 8: #10 Maura's Pass was held up to rate early and wound up wide all the way behind a front-running winner in her turf debut. Can do better than that second time on grass and has found a likely field. #8 Jennys Creek has run out of chances, but she is competitive here with a typical effort, and she did have an impossible trip last time. #7 Escape to Malibu is a first-time starter with enough pedigree for a hot trainer, all of which combines to make her interesting in a race like this one.
Race 9: #9 Stars Above Me impressed in her stateside debut, traveling strongly throughout while covered up behind horses, and then settling it quickly once clear in the stretch. Shaped with potential overseas, and may be set to begin delivering on it now.
#6 Goldstryke Glory is a dangerous speed dropping out of a graded stakes try in Canada, and she won each of her two turf sprints prior to that in impressive fashion. #2 Quay steps up off of an impressive last-to-first score over this track and trip earlier in the meet, and she's always had the potential to go in races like this. #8 Free as a Bird is a gem of consistency in these turf sprints and will be racing on late.
Race 10: #5 Kelly's Prize showed speed going long on the main track last time and now switches back to turf to race with maiden claiming company on this surface for the first time. Has faced much better than this on turf in the past. #1 Miss Motivation had a good trip but could do no better than third at this level last time, though that was a tougher group of $40k maiden claimers. #3 Kevin's Steel can be competitive here with her best race, and #10 Lutheran Miss drops down and stretches out for the first time after doing little running in turf debut downstate.