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TimeformUS Analysis for July 26

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Saturday, July 26
 
Race 1:  #5 Rapid Repair hasn't run on turf in five months, when she was unable to get forward position and wound up stuck behind a moderate pace.  She has improved her form on the main track since returning from a short layoff, and her new-found speed on that surface could serve her well here after scratching from a much tougher spot on Friday's card to await this.  #6 Engaginglee has blown a trio of very good trips on turf already, all of them at short prices; tries again.  #8 Smart Ashley has a similar profile to Engaginglee, as she has settled for minor awards so far while taking some play.  
 
Selections:  5-6-1-8
 
 
Race 2:  #2 Blue Pigeon may be the horse to beat in this entry-level allowance for NY-breds, as he hinted at potential last year at two for Christophe Clement.  A much-the-best winner over this track in his debut, he went straight into stakes company from there.
 
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#3 Macagone is an interesting alternative to the likely favorite, as he has excuses for his first three starts, and took no prisoners in a convincing maiden score last time.  #1 Sanctify began his career in good form on the dirt, but his pedigree suggests turf may be better for him, and he ran well over a shorter distance on this surface downstate.  #7 Hidden Vow has the fastest races to get to, and if he runs the same race today that he ran two back, he's a likely winner, but he's just 1-for-22 lifetime and was a total no-show last time.  
 
Selections:  3-2-1-7
 
 
Race 3:  Loaded baby race will be an interesting race to keep tabs on for future reference, no matter who wins.  For the purposes of making picks, we'll put #8 Aldrin, a $1 million 3/4 brother to Tapit, on top.  #9 Competitive Edge has been mentioned as a runner for Pletcher, but he needs to draw in off the AE list.  Both #3 Today's Agenda (a $180k Monba?) and #5 Captain Moss (by Quality Road and out of a strong female family) have things to recommend them as well.  
 
Selections:  8-9-5-3
 
 
Race 4:  This is not the kind of race you want to be taking a short price in, as these horses have already blown too many chances.  #1 Vecino is a logical kind of horse, and he didn't run badly at Pimlico two starts back, but we can't love him from a wagering perspective at projected low odds.  If we were to take a shot at a price, it would be with #2 Sir Maurice, who is best as a turf sprinter and ran the best last race of any of these.  
 
Selections:  2-1-4-6
 
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Race 5:  #2 Rocket Time is very lightly raced and has to stretch out a bit here, but he has flashed real potential and is an interesting horse in a race where the others have already been exposed for the most part.  He raced very greenly in his debut after breaking slowly, and was within a length of #3 C J's Awesome at the finish despite trying to get in all the way through the stretch.  He looked a little better last time when taking it to maidens in a powerful front-running performance, but was still a little immature in the stretch.  #1 Rankhasprivileges has kept good company and has the two fastest recent races, which makes him the horse to beat.  #4 Golden Soul hasn't gone forward since parlaying a perfect inside run (and a monumental pace meltdown) into a runner-up finish in the 2013 Kentucky Derby, and will likely be an underlay with all of those Grade 1 running lines still appearing in his pps.
 
Selections:  2-1-5-4
 
 
Race 6:  Tough turf marathon for $35k claimers.  We are going to try #4 Knights Nation here on the class drop, as things just didn't go well for him once he didn't get his customary spot up on or near the lead last time.  He has already won over this distance on dirt, and he may also have been best in his lone try over this trip on grass.  #1 Capitan Futuro will need to be fit to go this far directly off of a long layoff, but he's proven to be a true stayer since arriving stateside, and he's faced much better competition than this.  
 
Selections:  4-1-2-5
 
 
Race 7:  Entry-level allowance for older sprinters has no shortage of speed signed on, which we hope plays to the advantage of #5 Rich 'n' Tuck.  He got untracked too late last time, when closing strongly with too far to come in the stretch, but he has been a dead-game closer in his three dirt sprints on this circuit, and he may get the right set-up today.  #10 Fabulous Kid is a dangerous horse getting back to what may be his best game today after trying routes and turf lately.  Sprint debut was fast, and he drew well on the outside.  
 
Selections:  5-10-1-3
 
 
Race 8:  Late Pick 4 with a $300k guarantee kicks off here with the Grade 2 Amsterdam. #4 Coup de Grace is the horse to beat after running down a pair of speedy rivals in Delaware prep for new trainer.  He had less-than-perfect trips in each of his two NY graded stakes tries and still managed to win one of those, but doesn't have much margin for error. We think that #8 Captain Serious poses a real threat to him ,however, and will take him on top at what should be a better price.  He has put his handy speed to work through three sprint starts to this point, traveling well from off of a fast pace in his debut, then stalking a more moderate pace in start number two, before taking control up front in the Mike Lee and pouring it on late in a convincing win.  105 speed figure for his excellent runner-up performance going longer last time is better than anything Coup de Grace has earned so far.  
 
Selections:  8-4-6-3
 
 
Race 9:  Both #1 Run to Mama and #2 Palace Dreams are returning from layoffs here, but they both flashed real ability last year at three, and are going to be big factors in here if ready to go right off the bench.  Palace Dreams has more speed, and Pace Projector places her on the early lead, but Run to Mama will likely be a much better price.  
 
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#5 Distorted Beauty may be the most talented of this bunch.  She's lightly raced and will stretch out for the first time today in a tough spot, but it will be no surprise if she is this good.  
 
Selections:  1-2-5-6
 
 
Race 10: The strength of this Jim Dandy field is drawn to the outside, with Belmont winner #4 Tonalist, the improving #5 Kid Cruz, and #7 Wicked Strong the major players. Tonalist has long felt like the up-and-comer in this division, and he scored back-to-back impressive victories once back to the races following a setback earlier in the year, including that Belmont Stakes upset when losing a lot of ground.  Wicked Strong was unlucky in the Derby, and he figures to appreciate this shorter distance after racing on gamely late over the 1 1/2 miles last time.  Kid Cruz isn't fully committed to running as of this writing, and faces a stern test should they elect to run him.  
 
Selections:  4-7-5-6
 
 
Race 11:  #11 Tapitation got the wrong ride in his turf debut back in May, and actually did quite well to finish second that day.  He deserves another chance on this surface, though post 11 is no bargain.  #6 Elroi has come back in improved form this year and will appreciate the cut-back from a longer route.  #9 Birchwood Road will be looking for firm ground for the first time since convincing maiden score at the end of last year, and he gets an interesting trainer change for this. 
 
Selections:  11-6-9-2
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, July 27, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, July 27, 2014

Race 1, 2-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 1 p.m.

MISS ALWAYS READY (dark bay or brown filly, More Than Ready—Miss Seffens, by Dehere) is a full-sister to More Than Real, who won the Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and was third in the Grade 1 Garden City. Their dam was a sprinter who won stakes at Turfway Park, Oaklawn, Prairie Meadows, Ellis Park, and Keeneland. She was unplaced in her lone turf start. Miss Seffens has produced two winners from four starters, with More Than Ready being her only turf winner.

Owner: Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $400,000 Keeneland April 2-year-old (one furlong in 9 3/5 seconds, video)

 

SKINNER BOX (dark bay or brown filly, Freud—Talkin Indian, by Indian Charlie) looks to become the first winner out of her dam, who won a pair of turf races and is a half-sister to Better Talk Now, whose five Grade 1 wins included a score in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Talkin Indian also is a half-sister to turfer B.A. Way, who won a listed stakes at Delaware Park and was third in the Grade 3 Belmont Breeders’ Cup Handicap. Talkin Indian’s only previous starter was unplaced in one start.

Owner: Patsy Symons

Trainer: Richard Violette, Jr.

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Sales history: $190,000 OBS April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, video)

 

HAIL CORNELL (bay filly, All American—Cayuga’s Waters, by Langfuhr) is a half-sister to Glorious View, who won the Grade 2 Vagrancy Handicap on the dirt; Cascadilla Falls, who took the Lucy Scribner on the turf; and Highball, third in this year’s Grade 3 American Derby on the grass. Their dam won four races, including an off-the-turf edition of the Pebbles at Belmont.

Owner: Laue Ranch

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Manuel Franco

 

ALSO ELIGIBLE

CALAMITY KATE(bay filly, Yes It’s True—Justmeandmyshadow, by Tiznow) is the first foal out of her dam, an unplaced half-sister to Grade 1 Champagne winner Officer. Calamity Kate’s second dam, St. Helens Shadow, won a listed stakes at Ruidoso.

Owner: George & Lori Hall

Trainer: Kelly Breen

Jockey: Paco Lopez

 

Race 3, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, dirt, 2:02 p.m.

PAULASSILVERLINING (bay filly, Ghostzapper—Seeking the Silver, by Grindstone) is a half-sister to this year’s Grade 1 Carter Handicap winner Dads Caps and stakes-placed sprinter Liza Too. Their dam is a winning half-sister to Charles Town stakes victor Choctaw Ridge.

Owner: Vincent Scuderi

Trainer: Michelle Nevin

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

 

HEADMISTRESS (bay filly, Bernardini—Headline, by Machiavellian) is a half-sister to Jilbab, who won the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, and Ancient World, who took the Group 1 Premio Vittorio di Capua in Italy and Group 3 Winter Hill in England. Jilbab is by A.P. Indy, the sire of Bernardini. Their dam is an unraced half-sister to Group 1 William Hill Futurity winner Dunbeath and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity hero Saratoga Six.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

 

HOPEFAITHJOY (bay filly, Lookin At Lucky—R Lady Joy, Vicar) is out of a mare who won the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks and was third in the Grade 1 Alabama. R Lady Joy has produced one previous starter, Quite Spectacular, a claimer who has won five races so far in his career.

Owner: StarLadies Racing

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $270,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

ZEEZEE ZOOMZOOM (gray/roan filly, Congrats—Zee Zee, by Exchange Rate) is out of a turf runner who won the Happy Ticket at Louisiana Downs as a 2-year-old and captured the Edgewood at Churchill Downs and was third in the Grade 2 Lake George and Grade 3 Regret. Zee Zee’s only foal to race, Queenofzeenile, has won a single race in 10 starts.

Owner/trainer: Amy Tarrant

Jockey: Joseph Rocco, Jr.

Sales history:  $80,000 Keeneland September yearling; $135,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 3/5 seconds, video)

 

ALSO ELIGIBLE

DIVINE PRAISES (bay filly, Medaglia d’Oro—Grand Prayer, by Grand Slam) is a half-sister to Malibu Prayer, who won the Grade 1 Ruffian Invitational Handicap, and Valid, who has placed in the Grade 3 Fred W. Hooper Handicap and Grade 3 Salvator Mile. Their dam won a minor stakes at Monmouth Park and is a half-sister to Grade 2 Bonnie Miss heroine Tap Dance.

Owner: Besilu Stables

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Joel Rosario

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

 

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, July 26, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, July 26, 2014

Race 3, All 2-year-olds, six furlongs, dirt, 2:02 p.m.

THIRTYSILVERPIECES (dark bay or brown ridgling, Badge of Silver—Crumbs of Comfort, by Pulpit) is a half-brother to Amen Kitten, a son Kitten’s Joy whose accomplishments include a win in the Tropical Park Derby on the turf and was third in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. The only other starter out of Crumbs of Comfort is winless in seven starts.

Owner: Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey

Trainer: Wesley Ward

Jockey: Robby Albarado

 

DA JENIUS   (bay colt, Malibu Moon—Madcap Escapade, by Hennessy) is a half-brother to Mi Sueno, a daughter of Pulpit who in her brief career won the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante and Grade 3 Sorrento. Both Da Jenius and Madcap Escapade are by sons of A.P. Indy. Da Jenius’ dam was primarily a sprinter, but she did win the Grade 1 Ashland and was third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks over a route of ground. She also won the Grade 2 Forward Gal, Grade 2 Shirley Jones Handicap, and Grade 3 Madison. Madcap Escapade is a half-sister to Grade 1 Ballerina winner Dubai Escapade.

Owner: Southern Equine Stable

Trainer: Eric Guillot

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $350,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

TODAY’S AGENDA (gray/roan colt, Monba—Alison’s Winner, by Pine Bluff) is a half-brother to Nellie Cashman, who took last year’s Grade 3 Virginia Oaks on the turf. Their dam, who has produced three winners from as many starters, won two stakes at Thistledown and a single stakes at Mountaineer.

Owner: Alex & JoAnn Lieblong

Trainer: Anthony Dutrow

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $75,000 OBS August yearling; $180,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 2/5 seconds, video)

 

CAPTAIN MOSS (bay colt, Quality Road—Deal of the Decade, by Tiznow) is out of an unplaced half-sister to Clear Mandate, who earned Grade 1 victories in the Shuvee Handicap, Spinster, and John A. Morris; Dream Scheme, who took the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Handicap; and A Diehl, a two-time winner of the listed J. Kenneth Self Shelby County Boys and Girls Club Stakes at Indiana Downs. Captain Moss’ second dam, Dream Deal, won the Grade 1 Monmouth Oaks and was a half-sister to Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Crème Fraiche.

Owner: Hurricane Boys & Richard Pell

Trainer: Nicholas Zito

Jockey: Joe Bravo

Sales history:  $100,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

ALDRIN (chestnut colt, Malibu Moon—Tap Your Heels, by Unbridled) is a half-brother to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner and top sire Tapit and to two-time stakes-placed runner Overandabeauty. Both Aldrin and Tapit are by sons of A.P. Indy, with Tapit being a son of Pulpit. Aldrin’s dam won a restricted at Colonial Downs and is a half-sister to three-time Grade 1 winner Rubiano.

Owner: Mt. Brilliant Farm, Gainesway Stable & Robert LaPenta

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sales history:  $1 million Keeneland April 2-year-old (one furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, video)

 

ALSO ELIGIBLE

COMPETITIVE EDGE(bay colt, Super Saver—Magdalena’s Chase, by Cape Town) is the first foal out of his dam, a sprinter who placed in stakes at Remington Park, Sunland Park, and Turf Paradise.

Owner: Nancy Favreau & Kathy Psoinos

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $750,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 seconds, video)

  

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

 

TimeformUS Analysis for July 25

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Friday, July 25

 
Race 1:  Difficult to find anything clever to say about the opener. The favorite, #7 Silver Union, takes the required drop while adding Lasix. The second choice, #5 Vision of Mine, takes an even bigger drop after running into a pair of repeat winners to begin her career.  Nothing so compelling about the others, unless you're interested in first-time starter #3 Lovely Elle, whose dam was a debut winner in NY for Pletcher several years ago and went on to win seven more races in her career.  
 
Selections:  7-5-2-3
 
 
Race 2:  #5 Shaunna Alexandra has earned a pair of 90+ TimeformUS Speed Figures for her last two races, which is rarified air in this field of $20k claimers.  Pace Projector indicates that she will be forwardly placed in a race that favors front-runners, and we expect her to be tough in this field.  
 
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#2 My Place is the horse to beat as she is dropped out of allowance company for Mott, which is something he does well from a limited sample (99 Trainer Rating).  #8 Valerie Victoria comes up a little light on our speed figures, but she's making just her second start off the layoff, and she raced on gamely to be second-best last time after chasing the pace throughout.
 
Selections:  5-2-8-9
 
 
Race 3:  Well-matched field of older turf horses set to go 1 1/2 miles here, with the distance likely to be the equalizer. Favored entry of #1 Artic North and #1A Clearbrook have stayed the longer trips most effectively, which is a strong point in their favor.  #4 Saffron Hall has competitive form up to 9 furlongs on turf, but he won over longer on dirt, and this barn is due to break out at some point.  #7 Rapscallion has never really delivered on his early promise, but he did run very well in a strong field over 1 1/4 miles two starts back. 
 
Selections:  4-7-1/1A-6
 
 
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Race 4:  This is a good NY-bred sprint that brings together several horses showing improved recent form and is open to just about any one of the seven entered.  We are most interested in #5 Leilani's Ticket. He is one of the biggest prices on the board, and he has really improved his form since being claimed by these connections here last summer.  He has run very well twice while sprinting on dirt this year, posting a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his late-running second over the inner dirt on March 8th, and coming right back with a 94 despite trouble at the break next time out.  His recent turf form is fine, but he's better on dirt and will be running late.  #6 Horatio has turned his life around since turned over to Jimmy Toner, and his last race was his best yet.  #7 Dan's Gold is another who is listed at a big price on the ML, and he has dangerous speed to use from his outside post.  #1 The Big Deluxe also has speed and may be forced to use it from the rail as he steps up off the claim. 
 
Selections:  5-6-7-1
 
 
Race 5:  #9 Animal Style is the horse to beat here as he drops down in class after putting in a strong run to fall just short vs. much better last time. Pace Projector indicates that he'll have a fast pace to set him up.  Appears these connections, who have gotten off to a slow start here for the second year in a row, are starting to look for wins.  Interested to see what we get from #6 Road Agent, who switches to a turf sprint off the claim. He has the pedigree to handle it and may appreciate a change after tailing off on the dirt recently.  
 
Selections:  9-6-2-10
 
 
Race 6:  Solid entry of #1 Guilt Trip and #1A Code West entered here, but only one will go, with Leparoux named on both.  Whichever one goes figures to be the horse to beat in here. But we're going to play multi-race wagers mostly through #3 Qualify, who is on the upswing for Graham Motion after winning all three starts so far this year.  May need to step forward one more time here, but he's been impressive during the current streak. We're skeptical of his more accomplished, and so far faster, rivals.  
 
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Selections:  3-1/1A-6-2
 
 
Race 7:  Wide-open turf maiden race.  #3 Hope Cross makes her third career start for Chad Brown, and she could easily have won either of her first two with any luck at all.  She had trouble at the break of her debut, and wound up getting bumped late while rallying through traffic to just miss.  She was then heavily backed for her second start at Belmont, only to find herself hooked into a fast duel and getting run down by a perfect-trip closer.  #2 Shift Colors came with a big run on the outside when second best in her turf debut in Kentucky and is eligible for better.  #5 Rapid Repair made a promising debut on grass before switching to the main track for Mott, but she is also entered into an easier spot on turf on Saturday.  
 
Selections:  3-2-5-9
 
 
Race 8:  #4 Noble Doss has returned running since being switched to dirt off the layoff. He won easily over a one-turn mile vs. weaker, and then rushed up to contest the pace after missing the break last time, staying gamely to the end. 9yo #2 Writingonthewall is back to dirt for sharp connections after getting a short break.  He's been in good form and likes to win.  #9 Bug Juice easily handled Noble Doss at the end last time, but he got a perfect trip that day and may be better over a wet track.  #10 Regulus has the top last-out speed figure in the field, but he was facing just three others in that off-the-turf event, and he got loose on the lead.
 
Selections:  4-2-9-7
 
 
Race 9:  $100k Curlin stakes for 3yos may have a different look come post time, as ML favorite #1 Commanding Curve and third choice #6 Cousin Stephen are both cross-entered into Saturday's Jim Dandy.  Either way, we'll take our chances with #3 Protonico, who impressed in contesting the pace all the way to a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his first start for Pletcher.  Pedigree suggests taking on more distance should be no issue.  This trip may be pushing the limits of how far #10 Life in Shambles wants to go, but he has speed and was a very good 3rd last time after being forced to gun to the lead on a solid pace from his inside post.   
 
Selections:  3-1-10-2
 
 
Race 10:  #3 Illapa made a positive impression on turf last year as a 2yo, and she got in what appeared to be a useful prep going shorter off the layoff downstate.  We liked what we saw from #5 Jolene in her turf debut last time, as she was forced to try her rally up the inside and just missed getting 2nd from #4 Knotty Pine, who was controlling the pace that day. Well-bred #9 Fresh Feline could be dangerous in here after racing very greenly in her debut, but we have been leery of runners from this barn in NY all spring and summer, and want to see some life out of their runners before getting on board.  
 
Selections:  3-5-9-1A 
 
 
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