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TimeformUS Analysis for August 23

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Saratoga on Travers Day, Aug 23

Race 1:  #5 Three Alarm Fire ran a 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his promising debut.  Will put the pressure on the firsters if running as well right back.  #2 Hidden Candy broke very slowly in turf debut, and raced greenly while catching up to the field. Switches to dirt for second start, but showed enough in there to expect improvement. Todd Pletcher hasn't had his typical meet with his first-time starters up here (he's won with just four of 22 of them on dirt to this point), and he's not as potent with his older ones as he is with his 2yos, but #7 Liam's Map was an $800k yearling, and he shows up here with some fast works in tow.  
 
Selections:  5-2-7-8
 
 
Race 2:  #9 Potthast took money for his sprint debut and was finishing gamely despite having no pace to close into.  May appreciate having more ground to work with.  #2 Face the Music is the horse to beat off promising debut behind a good-looking winner here earlier in the meet.  Figures to improve for the experience, and there were whispers leading in to that one that this well-bred colt had some ability.  #4 The Truth or Else was back off the pace on the stretch-out last time and was finishing gamely late to just miss 2nd.  Runner-up from that race went to Arlington to win his next start.  #5 Blazing Truth will stretch out for his second start after racing wide and appearing green in the stretch.  
 
Selections:  9-2-4-5
 
 
Race 3:  #10 Blue Pigeon finished behind a couple of these in his 3yo debut on July 26th, but that was a fast-paced race and he wound up close to it before failing to rally hard in the stretch.  Think he can do better than that, as his 2yo form suggests he has some ability.  
 
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6 John Bailey may be the one to beat after posting new top figure (91) win in his first start back as a 3yo.  He dueled down a heavy favorite through the stretch that day, and it was encouraging to see him show an ability to rate.  #1 Poliziotto makes his second start back as well, and he projects for a nice inside stalking trip from his rail draw.  #9 Iced Over endured a very tough trip in turf debut back in June, but he parlayed a perfect one into a win in his first start with fellow NY-breds earlier in the meet, and he had a bar shoe removed.
 
Selections:  10-6-1-7
 
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Race 4:  In the event that you're one of the blissful few out there without a Twitter account, let's get the Tony Dutrow second-time-starter-at-Saratoga stat out of the way:  He has won with seven of the last 10 on dirt up here, and that includes three winners this meet.  His #8 Today's Agenda could do no better than 2nd first time out behind Competitive Edge, who was perhaps the most impressive 2yo to debut at this meet.  He finished just ahead of #7 Bayerd in there, and Bayerd is also sent over by a trainer who does excellent work with second-time starters.  They are both major players here, but we'll put #6 Waging War on top.  After getting away slowly from the gate on August 2nd, Waging War made a sharp run through the turn while hung up very wide, and he never gave in through the stretch while weakening late.  There are, as always, some interesting firsters in this field, but we'll stick with the experienced runners for now. 
 
Selections:  6-7-8-2
 
 
Race 5:  Not thrilled to be taking the 1-for-20 #9 Divine Luck on top, but there is little doubt that she's been unlucky in each of her last two starts.  She failed to get clear at all in the stretch two starts back at Belmont, and she lacked room at a crucial point up here on July 19th before finishing well too late behind a pair of fillies who both came back to run well here again.  #6 Luna Time has the upside as she switches to turf for the first time here, and her dam was a two-time stakes winner on grass.  She galloped out with a purpose in her career debut and was game to get up to break her maiden last time after having to alter course in the stretch.  
 
Selections:  9-6-2-1
 
 
Race 6:  #4 Shatak must be ready off the layoff, but he has run well in all three career starts so far, and may have closed down a pair of talented rivals when last seen had they not drifted over in front of him late.  Projects for a perfect trip tracking up close in a race that our Pace Projector indicates will favor runners up close to the lead.  #1 Picozza has burned too much cash to take on top, but this is the right race for him, and he didn't run poorly in either of his recent starts at Monmouth.  #8 McIlroy has come forward rapidly for Chad Brown since being claimed for $50k earlier in the year, and he has a versatile running style.  Came away narrowly second best after engaging in a game stretch duel with a heavily favored winner last time.  #12 Adirondack Dancer repeats the pattern that produced a winning effort for him last year on Travers Day, returning 14 days after a game effort over this track.  #6 Powerful Instinct is out of NY-bred conditions, but he has turned things around since being transferred to Chad Brown last year, and he exits a much-the-best win on July 24th. 
 
Selections:  4-1-8-6
 
 
Race 7:  #3 Pretty Fancy's best races to date have come around one turn, including a Churchill Downs mile on May 24th in which she took part in a contested pace and prevailed only to be closed down late by an odds-on favorite.  Like the turn-back for her after being in contention past midstretch of 9-furlong race last time.  #4 Predicate is just 1-for-13, but she shows up every time and rallied gamely once again last time after extricating herself from the inside to just miss catching a heavily favored winner.  Not a bad spot for #10 Divided Attention to kick off her 3yo campaign, and she'll do so with Lasix on for the first time.  She showed potential last year, and she appeared to lose position after getting intimidated on the far turn of the Tempted Stakes.  
 
Selections:  3-4-10-2
 
 
Race 8:   #9 Royal Blessing is getting the proper turn-back today after spending much of the past year running in races that are too far for him.  Really not sure what to do with #2 North Slope as he comes back to grass after a brief foray on the main track.  He's disappointed after showing early promise, but he's also had plenty of excuses, and we still believe in his natural ability.  This is the right kind of race for him, assuming he isn't completely finished. Both #4 Bad Debt and #6 Star Channel are capable and are contenders, but we'll take our chances with the top two.
 
Selections:  9-2-4-6
 
 
Race 9:  Late Pick 4 with a guaranteed $1 million pool kicks off with the Grade 2 Ballston Spa on turf.  #7 Filimbi impressed when overpowering #5 Dayatthespa in a prep for this, and she is a well-connected filly with much upside.  We expect her to be tough, but Dayatthespa is a talent in her own right and had to work hard contesting the pace in front of Filimbi in that race.  She can make it closer this time.  We are also interested in #2 Centre Court.  She appears to have lost a step or two since that big Grade 1 Jenny Wiley win early last year, but she has gotten a pair of questionable rides recently, and she'll be a price.
 
Selections:  2-7-5-3
 
 
Race 10:  As one might expect of a Grade 1 sprint carrying a $500k purse, there is plenty of speed signed on to contest the King's Bishop.  #2 Wildcat Red has some of that speed, but he's been effective from a stalking position, and he figures to be ridden that way as he turns back out of longer races.  Think he's best over these shorter races, and he's a fighter.  #7 The Big Beast put up a 110 TFUS Speed Figure for blowout win over this track ladt time, and he is a talented 3yo sprinter on the upswing.  #8 Coup de Grace is a talented closing sprinter who will also appreciate any pace that develops in front of him.  Don't think he's necessarily one to take a short price on, but we're using him in our Pick 4.  We also want #5 Noble Moon on our tickets as he returns from a layoff.  He showed talent earlier in the year and can be a big threat with any natural improvement.
 
Selections:  2-7-8-5
 
 
Race 11:  Grade 1 Ballerina has a NY-bred feel, with four fillies bred in the Empire State entered.  We think all of them are contenders and are taking them at the expense of multiple Grade 1 winners #2 Better Lucky and #4 My Miss Aurelia.  #5 Willet has come back better than ever through two starts this year.  Lone graded stakes tries to this point have come over longer distances, or off of layoffs, but we like her better as a sprinter.  #8 Hot Stones has run nothing but good races, and she is a major threat turning back out of a game Shuvee try.  #1 Artemis Agrotera is already a Grade 1 winner, and she has won her two starts over this track by a combined 22 lengths.
 
Selections:  5-8-1-2
 
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Race 12:  Make no mistake. Whether you think he can get the distance or not, the Travers goes straight through ML favorite #2 Bayern.  He's the clear speed, and it's unlikely that anyone will want to challenge him too hard early.  We're going against him today, but without enthusiasm.  We have liked #6 Tonalist from day one and think he is set to break through as he makes his second start back from a short break off his Belmont Stakes win.  #7 Wicked Strong is not to be taken lightly, and he is our main backup. 
 
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Selections:  6-7-2-8
 
 
Race 13:  #9 Weave is an improving horse for a top trainer, and she was compromised by an outside draw and wide trip last time in a race where the horses racing toward the inside throughout had the advantage.  She had a big excuse two races back in spill-marred race at Belmont, and we liked her determined late run to close down maidens at Laurel prior to that.  #5 Sky Painter makes her three-year-old debut here for top connections, and she certainly flashed enough potential last year to believe that she can be tough here with first-time Lasix.  #1 More Than Less is still green but has shown ability and she did not get a good trip in her last start.  
 
Selections:  9-5-1-4
 
 
Race 14:  #2 Macagone raced away on too fast of a pace last time and couldn't stay on through the stretch.  Figures to be able to settle more today with other pace in the race, and his best effort is good enough.  #3 Thurgood has appeared to have potential beyond the NY-bred ranks after two starts.  He did catch a fast pace to close into last time, but he was impressive, and there is not a lack of speed in this race, either.   #5 Morning Calm fits well in here based on game effort trying to track down the talented Storm, who remains undefeated on grass.  Not thrilled to see that he was listed as a vet scratch on June 18.  
 
Selections:  2-3-5-6
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, August 23, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, August 23, 2014

Race 2, All 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 12:05 p.m.

DISPERSION (dark bay or brown colt, Arch—Miss Lodi, by Mr. Greeley) is out of a mare who won the Grade 3 Safely Kept and was third in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff Handicap. She was off the board in her single start on the turf. Miss Lodi has produced four winners from five starters, one on the turf and two on all-weather surfaces.

Owner: Klaravich Stables & William H. Lawrence

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $150,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

IMPERIA (dark bay or brown colt, Medaglia d’Oro—Cocoa Beach, by Doneraile Court) is the first foal out of his dam, a successful runner on three different continents and on three different surfaces. Cocoa Beach won a pair of Group 3 races in Chile and the UAE 1000 Guineas and UAE Oaks in the United Arab Emirates on the dirt before she came to the United States. Stateside, she won the Grade 1 Beldame Invitational on the dirt and the Grade 1 Matriarch on the turf. She also was second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff on a synthetic surface. Cocoa Beach is a half-sister to Via Los Andes, who won a Group 3 race and placed in a pair of Group 1 events in Argentina.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

 

VOGNER (bay colt, Point Given—Violet Lady, by Seattle Slew) is a half-brother to Skyring, who has won the Grade 2 Dixie and Grade 2 Mervyn H. Muniz Handicap on the turf. He also is a half-brother to Caballero Negro, who won a minor stakes on the dirt and was promoted to third via disqualification in the Grade 3 Calder Derby on the turf; and Greenspring, who took the Grade 2 General George on the dirt. Their dam, who was winless in four starts, also has produced three stakes-placed runners.

Owner: Calumet Farm

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Luis Saez

 

Race 4, All 2-year-olds, six furlongs, dirt, 1:09 p.m.

BIRD HUMOR (chestnut gelding, Distorted Humor—Bird Legacy, by Mineshaft) is the first foal out of his dam, an unraced half-sister to champion Bird Town and classic winner Birdstone. Bird Town was named Champion Three-Year-Old Filly after winning the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Grade 1 Acorn. Birdstone won the Grade 1 Champagne as a 2-year-old before going on to upset Smarty Jones in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and capture the Grade 1 Travers.

Owner: Marylou Whitney Stables

Trainer: Nicholas Zito

Jockey: Joe Bravo

 

LUDICROUS (dark bay or brown colt, Medaglia d’Oro—Victory Ride, by Seeking the Gold) is out of a mare who won the Grade 1 Test. Victory Ride, a half-sister to Grade 1 Hollywood Derby victor River Flyer, has produced six winners from as many starters, including Magical Ride, who was third in the Grade 2 Adirondack. Ludicrous is the most expensive of 10 juveniles by his sire to sell at auction this year.

Owner: Robert LaPenta & Sheep Pond Partners

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $140,000 Keeneland September yearling; $770,000 Keeneland April 2-year-old (two furlongs in 20 seconds, video)

 

TAP IT OFF (dark bay or brown colt, Tapit—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) is a half-brother to Black Onyx, winner of the Grade 2 Spiral on a synthetic surface; Francois, who won a minor stakes at Arlington Park; and Quality Council, third in the Grade 2 Nashua. Four of five starters out of Kalahari Cat have won. Tap It Off’s second dam is a winning full-sister to Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint heroine Desert Stormer.

Owner: Live Oak Plantation

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

 

FROSTED (gray/roan colt, Tapit—Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) is out of a mare who won the Grade 2 Cotillion on the dirt and a division of the restricted De La Rose on the grass. Fast Cookie is a half-sister to Midshipman, who was named Champion Two-Year-Old Colt after winning the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on synthetic tracks. Both starters out of Fast Cookie have won.

Owner: Godolphin Racing

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.

 

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, August 22, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, August 22, 2014

Race 7, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, dirt, 4:10 p.m.

PATH (gray/roan filly, Tapit—Carriage Trail, by Giant’s Causeway) looks to become the first winner out of his Grade 1-winning dam, who has one other starter to date. Carriage Trail won the Grade 1 Spinster on a synthetic surface and the restricted De La Rose on turf, and was third in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff Handicap on the dirt. Path’s second dam, Manoa, placed in a pair of Grade 3 races and has produced Forest Trail, who was Grade 3 placed on grass.

Owner: Stuart S. Janney III & Phipps Stable

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

 

GAP YEAR (bay filly, Bernardini—Dubai Escapade, by Awesome Again) is out of a sprinter who won the Grade 1 Ballerina, Grade 2 Madison, and Grade 2 Vagrancy Handicap. Dubai Escapade, whose lone previous starter has one win in seven starts, is a half-sister to Madcap Escapade, winner of the Grade 1 Ashland, and Real Estate, who captured a sprint stakes at Suffolk Downs. Madcap Escapade has gone on two produce Grade 1-winning juvenile Mi Sueno.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Joel Rosario

 

SIERRA OLIVIA (dark bay or brown filly, Pulpit—Strike the Sky, by Smart Strike) is a half-sister to turf runners Hudson Steele, winner of the Grade 2 Dixie, and Lauren Byrd, who was second in the listed Jessamine. All six starters out of Strike the Sky have won, including four on the dirt.

Owner: R R Partners & Jay W. Bligh

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

 

SOUPER SOCIAL (chestnut filly, Distorted Humor—Social Page, by A.P. Indy) is the first foal out of her dam, a winning full-sister to Secret Status, who took the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Grade 1 Mother Goose, and Alumni Hall, who captured the Grade 3 Ben Ali and Grade 3 Fayette. She also is a half-sister to Private Gift, a stakes winner at Louisiana Downs.

Owner: Live Oak Plantation

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $575,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

ALSO ELIGIBLE/DRAWS IN WITH SCRATCH OF CLOTHES FALL OFF

TIPPANY (gray/roan filly, Tapit—Shop Here, by Dehere) is a half-sister to Fifth Avenue, who won the listed Fashion Stakes and was second in the Grade 2 Adirondack as a juvenile; and stakes-placed sprinter Shoptate. Their dam is a winning half-sister to Miss Shop, heroine of the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, and Trappe Shot, victorious in the Grade 2 Vosburgh and second in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational. Four of six starters out of Shop Here have won.

Owner: Patricia Pavlish

Trainer: Timothy Hamm

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

Sales history: $500,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

ALSO ELIGIBLE

BONNET PLUME (bay filly, Bernardini—Little Bonnet, by Coronado’s Quest) is a half-sister to Boys at Tosconova, who won the Grade 1 Hopeful and was second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. All three starters out of Little Bonnet –who was third in an off-the-turf edition of the Sands Point, which was ungraded after being transferred to the main track – have won.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.

 

TimeformUS Analysis for August 22

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Saratoga on Friday, August 22

Race 1:  #2 Bernie the Maestro goes well over this track and we'll take him to improve for a trainer who has had a good meet to this point, and who does well with these older sprinters off the claim. #4 Moments Notiz has avoided NY since streaking start once imported by this trainer at Aqueduct, but he's continued to race competitively out of town, and he has a race to get to that makes him tough in here.  #5 Doubledown Again has settled for 2nd or 3rd in each of his seven starts since arriving in NY, and figures to be able to land a piece, at least, in this spot as well.

Selections:  2-4-5-3
 
 
Race 2:  #7 Nejma wasn't going to factor vs. an impressive winner here on August 3rd, but she was up against it immediately after missing the break, and she raced greenly down on the rail through the stretch.  Down slightly in class for second start and is eligible for much better.  #8 Know It All Anna acquitted herself well in a tough field on debut, then stumbled at the start vs. MSW company here on opening day.  Class drop will help and she drew well on the outside for first start in blinkers. #2 Zarleeza caught a sloppy track for her debut at Monmouth, and she was outrun in the early stages before passing some horses late.  Pletcher wins with a lot of first-time starters, but he also gets a 100 trainer rating with second-time starters and with the MSW to MCL drop. 
 
Selections:  7-8-2-3
 
 
Race 3:  Well-matched group of sprinters will go six furlongs for $100k in the Tale of the Cat.  #7 Sensational Slam isn't quite up to graded stakes quality, but he's been holding form over a long series of races.  Think he'll appreciate getting away from the Monmouth main track, which was carrying speed on Haskell Day.  He just needs some pace to close into.  #3 Bahamian Squall also fits better in this kind of race, though he was a complete no-show in a weak renewal of the Grade 1 Vanderbilt last time.  Can be given one more chance as he makes his third start off the layoff.  #6 Bern Identity held potential early in his career and impressed in his return from a long layoff in the Monmouth slop.  Faces some solid older sprinters here, but holds much upside and has the tactical speed to pull the right trip.  
 
Selections:  7-3-6-1
 
 
Race 4:  #6 Savvy Star has a big pedigree (100 rating, for dirt sprints), being a half to Haskell winner Bluegrass Cat from the family of Derby winner Super Saver, and debuts in a likely field considering what we've seen from the experienced runners to this point.  Trainer doesn't crank up his 2yos for early success, but does much better with his older first-time starters.  
 
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#1 Running Wild took a step forward here in her 3yo debut, and figures tough if improving from that run for a trainer who has been on a good run.  #3 Judy Legend can also do better in her second start of the year after finishing behind Running Wild last time.  Earned solid 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her debut as a 2yo.
 
Selections:  6-1-3-4
 
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Race 5:  5th features the return of the talented #4 Cigar Street, who hasn't been seen since completing hat trick on the Grade 3 Skip Away with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure back in March of 2013.  He's better than these with one of his good efforts, but it may not be wise to expect that today.  If he's just out there to shake off some rust, #2 Qualify was heading the right way before settling for 3rd in tough allowance here last month.  That was his first attempt at nine furlongs, and he can do better with the experience behind him.  #7 Bad Hombre is pushing his limit going this far, but he tried gamely while contesting the pace ahead of Qualify last time, and also ran very well in the Curlin at this distance up here last summer.  #3 Awesome Vision is consistent and he can take advantage late as he can get this distance without issue, which can't be said so easily for some of the others. 
 
Selections:  2-4-7-3
 
 
Race 6:  #5 Honor the Kitten has run the fastest races in the field, and he took the worst of it last time when rated wide off the pace behind a wire-to-wire winner.  Drops in price off the claim, but is tough in this field with a typical effort.  
 
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#1 Tiu ran very well three times on turf up here last summer, and returns to that surface for the first time since for top connections after finally getting overdue win on dirt last time.  #11 Giant Jo had to be used to get position from an outside post when dropped in for the price in his 3yo debut, and he was impressive in kicking away from that field in the stretch.  Took the worst of the draw once again. 
 
Selections:  5-1-11-6
 
 
Race 7:  #3 Paulassilverlining debuted over a muddy track earlier in the meet and found herself in a pace duel with a Tony Dutrow-trained second-time starter before tiring in the stretch.  Faces some very well-bred and well-connected firsters here, but can be tough on them if showing similar speed in this spot.  #1 Gap Year is out of Grade 1 Ballerina winner Dubai Escapade and debuts with some strong works in tow.  #2 Path has also been working well, and she has a versatile pedigree, being by Tapit and out of a dam who was a Grade 1 winner on synthetic, a stakes winner on turf, and Grade 1-placed on dirt.  #9 Souper Social is the first foal from a dam who is a full sister to Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose winner Secret Status. 
 
Selections:  3-1-2-9
 
 
Race 8:  #6 Crushing couldn't impact the speedy Stormin Monarcho most recently, but he impressively overpowered a field first time back from the layoff, and he doesn't figure to struggle with the distance for a trainer who is heating up right now.  #1 Smooth Bert hasn't come back to form so far this year, but he's been in a couple of tough spots and he has the speed to pull the right kind of trip here as he makes his third start back off the layoff.  #9 Away Game already owns a pair of wins over this distance, including an upset win here last month after a perfect trip.
 
Selections:  6-1-9-5
 
 
Race 9:  Very interesting edition of the Grade 1 Personal Ensign is on tap. It feels as if legitimate cases can be made for many of the horses.  #6 Close Hatches is the horse to beat in current form, and she has a running style that allows her to avoid being compromised by race dynamics.  Her rival #7 Princess of Sylmar is in something of a make-or-break spot here after disappointing as a heavy favorite last time.  Not sure that adding blinkers is a good sign for her, as Pletcher pulls that move with limited success overall and almost no success in races like this (1 for last 15 in graded stakes).  Both #1 Antipathy and #5 Belle Gallantey finished close up to the two favorites (surprisingly) in the Ogden Phipps, and they have both since returned to prove that that result was no fluke.  We could take either one to post an upset but will go with Antipathy, who got in a win over this track and trip earlier in the meet and appears to be a filly on the improve.
 
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Selections:  1-6-7-5
 
 
Race 10:  #8 Beamer didn't take to jumping, but he put in a run through some traffic when returned to the flat after a layoff and is a threat with the right trip in this field.  #4 Film Shot has come up short more than once in races that he appeared to have at his mercy, but he's also faced better horses right along and figures to benefit from the class relief.  Still not sure what #3 Best Play's best game is, but he's a good fit at this level on grass and has run races that make him competitive.  Figures to get overlooked in the wagering off the claim.  #6 Media Kid is logical getting back to grass after contesting an off-the-turf affair last time.  Has the kind of tactical speed that can get him any trip in a race. 
 
Selections:  8-4-6-3
 
 
Race 11:  #3 Aripeka got a good trip and just missed after engaging in a stretch duel with Arch Avenger last time.  Finished ahead of, and ran better than, several of these that day, and is tough to down if coming back with a similar performance.  #1 Smokey Brown never kicked in with a run when behind Aripeka last time, but he is capable of producing a better finish, and he will add Lasix for the first time today.  #8 Pecorino is interesting switching to grass first off the claim by Linda Rice.  He is out of a dam whose three career wins all came on turf, and Rice also took the aforementioned Arch Avenger, who had turf pedigree but had never run on it, from Todd Pletcher and switched him to grass with immediate success.  
 
Selections:  3-1-8-5
 
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