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Forbes' Firsters

 

Forbes’ Firsters is a series that takes a glance at the pedigrees and sales histories of select 2-year-olds who are making their debuts in maiden special weight races at Aqueduct Racetrack, Belmont Park, or Saratoga Race Course. Many of history’s best horses have commenced their careers in New York, and Forbes’ Firsters will help fans find the stars of tomorrow as they head postward for the first time.

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Monday, July 21, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Monday, July 21, 2014

Race 2, 2-year-old fillies, 5 ½ furlongs, turf, 1:31 p.m.

NEILINGER (bay filly, Tapit—Pursuit of Glory, by Fusaichi Pegasus) is the first foal out of a mare who was third in the Group 1 Cheveley Park at Ireland and is a granddaughter of Sophisticat, who won the Group 1 Coronation in England and was third in the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1,000 Guineas). Neilinger’s third dam is Hall of Famer Serena Song, also the dam of Grade 2 Oaklawn Park Handicap winner Grand Reward and Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap victor Harlington.

Owner: Lee Pokoik

Trainer: Gary Contessa

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Sales history: $205,000 OBS April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, video)

 

RIDDLE ME THIS (dark bay or brown filly, Eskendereya—Queen Joanne, by Mr. Greeley) is the first foal out of his dam, who was second in the Pebbles on the turf. Queen Joanne herself is a half-sister to Stevie Wonderboy, who won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Grade 2 Del Mar Futurity en route to being named Champion Two-Year-Old Male, and Theyskens’ Theory, who won the Group 3 Prestige in England and was second in the Grade 1 Garden City.

Owner: Michael Dubb, Bethlehem Stables, and The Elkstone Group

Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $100,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

DELAWARE BAY (dark bay or brown filly, Scat Daddy—Two Dot Slew, by Evansville Slew) is a half-sister to Angelica Zapata, who has won two turf stakes, an all-weather stakes, and six dirt stakes. Her turf stakes wins came in the Wasted Tears at Gulfstream Park and Capuano Handicap at Calder. The only other starter out of Two Dot Slew won two races on the dirt and one over an all-weather surface. Two Dot Slew placed in a single stakes on the turf and three on the dirt and is a half-sister to Dash of Humor, who won stakes on both surfaces.

Owner: Richlyn Farm Inc.

Trainer: George Weaver

Jockey: Edgar Prado

Sales history: $130,000 OBS April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, video)

 

RAINHA DA BATERIA (chestnut filly, Broken Vow—Amelia, by Dixieland Band) is half-sister to Kindergarden Kid, who won the Grade 3 Sycamore on the turf and was third in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational; He’s Had Enough, second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; and Assateague, third in the Pebbles on the grass. Their dam won the Frances E. Genter over the spinach. Rainha Da Bateria’s second dam, Aguilegia, won the Grade 2 New York Handicap and Grade 3 Black Helen Handicap on the turf and also produced Bertolini, who won the Group 3 July Stakes in England and placed in three Group 1 races in Europe, and Alchemilla, who took a restricted stakes on the dirt at Belmont.

Owner: Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Sales history: $435,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

 

TimeformUS Analysis for July 21

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for racing on Monday July 21

Race 1:  Several options to choose from in this contentious opener full of lightly raced NY-bred maidens, but we're most interested in giving #5 Cuantos a chance.  He raced greenly though kickback early before moving right up behind the impressive winner on the lead coming to the stretch; he ultimately came up empty in the stretch, but showed enough ability in there to suggest that he can improve with racing.   Our main backup in the Pick 5 will be #8 Greg's Fourwheeler, who gets a cut-back in distance after failing to impact after a wide run over a mile last time; sprint debut was promising as he was wide there, as well, but raced on gamely. 
 
Selections: 5-8-6-3
 
 
Race 2:  We'll keep an eye on the will-pays in an attempt to get a handle on the first-time starters, but they may have to be able to go a little if #1 Lamontagne stays in for trainer Wesley Ward; gray filly has flashed high speed in all three career starts (2 of those vs. colts), and she was given an ill-advised ride last time when pulled sharply back off the pace after leaving the gate running; has the kind of speed that can make things tough on her inexperienced rivals. 
 
Selections: 1-2-6-8
 
 
Race 3:  Going with speed again in race 3, as #1 Annie Walker takes the next step after finally putting together a full effort in demolition of maiden claiming company last time; Pace Projector doesn't agree that she's fastest of these early, but we think she can make the running from the rail and will benefit from the slight turn-back here.  
 
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#5 Wraith may be the main danger, as she has run several TimeformUS Speed Figures that are faster than Annie Walker's best, but she doesn't have much speed, and this race may not come back to her.
 
Selections:  1-5-2-3
 
 
Race 4:  Toughest race in this Pick 5 sequence here, as 11 maiden claimers line up to go seven furlongs without a standout in the group.  Think there's a chance that drop-downs #4 Tony B and #6 Artemus Paperboy hook up early and hurt each other, but they also may just be better than their somewhat modest competition here.  We're most interested in #5 Wild Skye as an alternative to them, as he raced very greenly in both prior starts, and his lack of professionalism really cost him last time. 
 
Selections:  4-6-5-11
 

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Race 5:  Field full of hard-hitting turf sprinters is open to several, but we're going to cast our lot with #8 Isn'tlovejustgrand, who has been holding strong form since being switched back to grass; parlayed a perfect trip into a win over a salty group of $40k claimers two starts back, and he was dead-game with an aggressive ride contesting the pace going longer last time. 

 
Selections:  8-4-3-5
 
 
Race 6:  #1 Make Your Point remained a disappointment on the main track but ran a better race last time with blinkers on, chasing a very fast pace up the backstretch before inheriting an early lead and then weakening late from her early exertions; turf start two back was only OK at a big price, but that race has produced three horses who have won a race since.  
 
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#3 Fire Ship switched to turf for the first time in career start #9 and found herself hooked into a fast duel early, and was swallowed up by the closers once she put her early rival away; with the pace of that race taken into account, she actually ran the top last TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field, and may be the horse to beat in this weak $40k maiden claimer. We've tried #4 Dixie Gem in the past at big prices, and her turf debut actually wasn't a poor effort at a big price; offered nothing last time, but gets a class drop for this.  #7 Burndownthetown has the pedigree to be a runner, but has so far offered little on the track; dropping in vs. maiden claimers may help.  
 
Selections:  1-3-4-7
 
 
Race 7:  Seen enough of the familiar names in this field lately, and want a new face to try against them.  Most interested in trying #9 Dreamsgonewild off the layoff, as he will offer value.  #11 With Exultation once had promise for Christophe Clement, and has run a couple of good races recently out of town with new blinkers; maybe he just wanted to sprint all along?  #10 Sandy'z Slew is logical as the horse to beat; ran well enough when back to turf-sprinting last time, but that was a race that really held together up front.  We like #6 Western Tryst, who needs some pace to run into, but want a good price in order to use.
 
Selections: 9-11-10-6
 
 
Race 8:  Short but strong field assembled for this $100k stakes, which attracted three Grade 1 winners among the six entered.  If you're looking for an alternative to the more accomplished runners, #3 Bridgehampton has the speed and ran a big race when last seen at Parx, running away from a challenge coming to the stretch and getting clear to a much-the-best win; she has upside, and Pace Projector puts her on the lead to advantage here, but has never been beyond six furlongs.  #4 My Miss Aurelia could easily have been retired with her value as a broodmare already established with three Grade 1 wins, so the fact that she returns to the track suggests that she has something left.  #2 Grace Hall hasn't won a race since the end of her three-year-old season, but she never got going at four, and is now third back from the layoff; not so sure that turning back to shorter races going forward won't suit her well.
 
Selections:  3-4-2-1
 
 
Race 9:  Strong-looking $40k claimer restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime features a trio of well-connected droppers drawn toward the inside in #1 Branded Hand, #3 Belly of the Whale, and #4 Honor the Kitten.  We'll put Honor the Kitten on top for now, but realistically, price should determine where your money should go.  #10 H Town Brown just took a field of $50k maiden claimers wire to wire, and his speed is an asset, but these connections have been getting way overbet since the meet began.
 
Selections:  4-3-1-10
 
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TimeformUS Analysis Sunday July 20

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Sunday July 20th

Race 1: Have some guessing to do in the opener, but the board will be on display for Pick 5 purposes.  #1 G R's Giant goes for an underrated debut trainer, and he has attracted Castellano.   #6 Tax Package is logical for a win-early outfit, and he shows some solid works in his line-up.  Won't dismiss the Pletcher firster, #7 Sandler, too quickly, and #4 Desert Million brought $100k as a yearling for owner/trainer Tony Dutrow.
 
Selections:  1-6-7-4
 
Race 2:  Wide-open $20k claimer may hold the key to the early card multi-race wagers, as there is the potential for an oddball result here, whether it winds up playing out that way or not.  We'll use whichever half of the Jacobson entry starts, though #1 Cease has been disappointing of late and takes a negative class drop, and #1A Groomedforvictory, while the best horse in the race, has never wanted to go this far.  We'll include horses like #4 Most Happy Fella, who is also dropping and who, along with Cease, is already a multiple winner over this track and trip; and #6 Matt and Jesse, who needs pace to run into and may get it here. 
 
Selections:  4-1-6-2
 
Race 3:  #1 Mariel N Kathy didn't get to the early lead last time, and never had a fair chance after that, steadying on the first turn and then getting shuffled back to last exiting the second turn; she is at her best when able to get to the front, and our Pace Projector indicates that she will easily get there in this race, which is going to make her tough.
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We're going to key on her in the multi-race exotics on the early part of this card, and will relegate #6 Maximova to backup status, along with #3 Gathering.  
 
Selections: 1-6-3-5

 

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Race 4:  This race has a different pace scenario in store, as any or all of #1 Carolinian, #2 Ten Items or Less, and #4 Glickman could be showing early speed in here.  We think that plays mostly to the advantage of #3 Lieutenant Seany O, who gets a turn-back in distance to go along with his substantial class drop.  Both #5 Denzel and #7 In the Dark are also eligible to take advantage in here, but Lieutenant Seany O is a better horse than those two.  
 
Selections:  3-4-5-7
 
Race 5:
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Short but solid field of turf sprinters is assembled for the $100k Lucky Coin, and we are interested in #5 Go Blue Or Go Home in this spot.  He has made only five starts sprinting on turf to this point and has won three of those, with the losses coming over a demanding seven furlongs through that long stretch at Woodbine vs. Grade 2 company, and in the Grade 3 Shakertown earlier this year off the layoff.  #2 Strong Impact is a gamer, and he may have been wheeled back too quickly off of his stakes win out of town last time. 
 
5-2-6-3
 
Race 6:  #2 Lay It Down won the first 4 turf races he ran in after being claimed by this outfit, and has landed in a pair of very tough spots since returned to grass recently; this appears to be a well-meant class drop.  #9 Dreaming of Danny got bet and ended a long losing streak for Rudy at this level downstate; figures to have some pace to close into once again.  #8 Assured Victory had turf sprint return washed off to the main track; returns to grass, with more distance attached for second start back, and has races that make him competitive.  #3 Treasury Devil, like the top one, is getting significant class relief.
 
Selections:  2-9-8-3
 
Race 7:  #7 T Sizzle had debut rained off to dirt, and ran well that day giving game chase to a favored winner; full brother to Purely Hot, a multiple stakes winner over synthetic and 2-for-4 lifetime on grass, figures to appreciate the surface switch.  Both #1 Hidden Candy and #9 Eighty Three are interesting firsters.  #2 Eternal Bull improved with the switch to turf last time, and he has dangerous speed.
 
Selections:  7-2-1-9
 
Race 8:  Difficult to trust anyone in this statebred route, but #6 Sir Leslie has been in good form since switched to dirt, and has run the best recent races.  #8 Ultimate Empire finished first in both races over this distance last summer, and will be tough if able to get back to one of those efforts; hasn't been seen in the same form recently.  #5 Fiona's Hero has improved since switched to this barn, and shows a recent two-turn win out of town.  
 
Selections:  6-8-5-1
 
Race 9:  #5 Silky ran very well in her stateside debut despite a tough trip, and then faced a tough task having to get 1 1/2 miles off the layoff last time.  #11 Crown Queen took a step forward making 3yo debut after running better than it may appear last year; much upside here.  #2 Abbey Street has picked up her game since the trainer change; ran very well to be second best last time after no-chance trip two back.
 
Selections:  5-11-2-1
 
Race 10:  #6 Taketheodds has improved with added distance, and still figures to have the most upside in this field.  Trainer tends to keep them going the right way once he gets them good, and her pedigree suggests that more distance will not be her undoing.  #2 Unbridled Forever will appreciate getting away from Untapable in a graded stakes race; was ok when a no-threat 3rd going shorter last time, and should also handle stretching back out.  #1 Stopchargingmaria is the lone graded stakes winner in the field (she's won 3), and the lone winner over 9 furlongs, but her speed figures so far this year give her no edge on this field.
 
Selections:  6-2-1-5
 
Race 11:  #3 Wake Up and Go finished a game second at this level last time after taking a wide trip as the winner controlled the pace; faces a Chad Brown MSW dropper in here, but got the best of the draw.  #11 Hushhushmushmush is taking a needed, and not negative, class drop after coming up short in 5 attempts at the MSW level.  
 
Selections:  3-11-9-12
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for July 19

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Saturday, July 19

 
Race 1:  #7 Kamarius made no impression as a rare big-priced Pletcher first-time starter at Monmouth three weeks ago, but we have reason to believe that he'll be a much different horse in Saturday's opener.  He broke slowly in that debut run and was never involved in the running at any point, but the winner was an uncoupled stablemate of his from the Pletcher barn who was sent off at 3/5 odds.  We'll view that effort as simply a spin around the track to help prepare Kamarius for this stretch out in distance and switching of surfaces, as his pedigree suggests he'll improve with both. He is by Candy Ride and is a half-brother to the Grade 2 turf winner Sarach.  #6 Luck of the Kitten is a first-time starter for powerful connections, and he is a half-brother to the stakes-winning turf runner Empire Builder.   #9 Lockport will also switch surfaces and stretch out after a dirt sprint debut, and his trainer gets strong ratings with the dirt-to-turf switch (100), second- time starters (100), and first turf (91); $105k feels like a lot to pay for a yearling by Temple City, so maybe there is something there.  The first-time starter with the best pedigree is #2 Dubai Sky, who is a full-brother to Twirling Candy (a graded stakes winner over all three surfaces, and winner of 7 of his 11 career starts) and a half to the Grade 2 turf winner Ethnic Dance; caveat being that his Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is a lowly rated 37 with first-time starters in turf routes.  #8 Mr. Discreet debuts for Pletcher and also has a big pedigree, being out of a dam who is a half-sister to Grade 1 winners Discreet Cat and Discreetly Mine, though they were dirt horses.
 
Selections:  7-6-9-2
 
 
Race 2: There are questions regarding #9 Groupthink, who was last seen dueling down eventual multiple graded stakes- placed Derby entrant Uncle Sigh at the end of last year.  He's not an easy horse to take a short price on, but he's landed in the right kind of field for his return, and he drew very well on the outside.  #5 Handy Stan may be his most dangerous rival, as he has plenty of speed, and Pace Projector likes his chances to get comfortable in the early going; 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned for his last race is tops in the field by a clear margin.  #3 Sidearm is consistent and is second back from a short break, but will need some pace to close into and is running out of chances quickly. 
 
Selections:  9-5-3-2
 
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Race 3:  Interested to see what we get from firster #3 Contrary Opinion, who has a big speed pedigree for a win-early outfit in Klaravich Stables Inc; trainer isn't known to crank them up, but put a fast breeze into this horse at Delaware a week ago.  We'll look to get the experienced horses home in this race, and prefer #6 Bird Now to #5 Cosmic Gold.  Bird Now ran a better race than it may appear at first asking here last summer, getting bet down to 6/1 in a field that contained sub-2/1 shots from both Pletcher and Asmussen, and then showing speed to get into a fast duel with the eventual winner Dunkin Bend.  He's caught a pair of muddy sealed tracks since then and may turn it around with fast going on Saturday.  Cosmic Gold switches to Castellano for his second start (trainer gets 88 rating with second-time starters, as compared to his overall 74 rating) and was sent through on the rail in his Parx debut, which is often not the place to be on that track.  
 
Selections:  6-5-3-2
 
 
Race 4:  We'll see what happens with this field full of first-time starters, which contains two from the loaded Pletcher barn, and an Asmussen, as well.  For what it's worth, #7 Money Changer, the preferred one of the Pletcher duo, brought $100k after working a 1/4 mile in :20.1 at Keeneland.  We're more interested in #5 Smithereen, who shipped north for Wesley Ward after posting a fast breeze at Gulfstream Park just over two weeks ago; wondering if his plans were changed after that.  #1 Special Invitation reportedly buried a field in a training race in Puerto Rico back in early May; has a spotty NY work tab since then, but may be more dangerous than he appears at first glance.  #4 Now We Are Free shows a series of slow breezes up to his debut; is out of a dam who went 10-for-20 and won multiple stakes in her career en route to over $420k in earning, and her first two foals to race are both multiple winners. 
 
Selections:  5-7-6-1
 
 
Race 5:  #3 Majestic Hussar finally posted a couple of long-overdue wins when returned from the layoff as a 4yo, and he has big speed at his disposal, which Pace Projector indicates will be to his advantage.  
 
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#1A Cherokee Artist is a solid old-timer, and he exits a strong effort, defeating a good field of sprinters in a stakes race at MTH; figures tough if he's half Jacobson sends.  #2 Sam Sparkle parlayed a good, aggressive ride into an upset victory at the end of May but is effective from farther off the pace as well and can be a late danger if a contested pace develops.  Both #1 Be Bullish and #6  Frazil are hard-hitting old warriors who can win this with their best efforts.  
 
Selections:  3-1A-2-6
 
 
Race 6:  #8 Readyheartandsoul has faced solid main track competition, and took a step forward in off-the-turf event last time; has plenty of grass in his female family, as his dam was a turf winner and she is out of Try N Sue, who won the Yaddo here a few years ago and is a sister to several good turf runners.  #12 Thurgood may be the horse to beat making his second start for Clement, and he showed something after encountering some trouble behind his stablemate Point Roll in his debut; tough post for him to overcome.  Both #10 Boston Strong and #3 Mr Ciolko exit late-running efforts going shorter at Belmont last month, and both are open to much improvement.  #11 Forever Utopia has had the most chances, and it is annoying that he's settled for second-best in 4 of 5 career starts on grass, but he has good form and is a contender.  
 
Selections:  8-12-10-3
 
 
Race 7:  Good field of nine assembled for the Grade 2 Sanford, with the strength on the outside in the form of #8 Nonna's Boy and #9 Cinco Charlie.  Nonna's Boy impressed in speedy debut for Pletcher, earning this field's top TimeformUS Speed Figure (90) by a clear margin, and his effort was flattered when runner-up Bustin It returned to demolish a field at Belmont on closing day.  
 
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Cinco Charlie has the advantage of a pair of races under his belt (one of them a graded stakes win) and of having already traveled this six-furlong distance; will be sternly tested in this spot, but he's already proven to be up for a race in the stretch.  We'll also make a backup ticket covering #4 Big Trouble, who impressed in his winning debut for a dangerous trainer while not appearing to be comfortable with that short five-furlong trip.
 
Selections:  8-9-4-3
 
 
Race 8:  Good race to stand against shorter prices on the ML like #9 Tasmona, who can win but just doesn't appear to be that good, and  #10 Devilish Love, who convincingly beat a very weak field last time.  We've been waiting for #1 Fade to Black to switch off the main track, as her pedigree is heavily slanted towards turf and synthetic (her dam is a sister to graded stakes winning turfers Dreaming of Anna and Justenuffhumor); drew a great inside post for this distance on the inner and figures to be a price.  #11 Weave caught a fast pace to close into over shorter last time, but was unlucky in the stretch when unable to get herself out into the clear, and then had to steady late; can do better, especially if the projected fast pace for this race develops for her.  #5 Stock Fund has finally put things together, after taking 23 starts to break her maiden, and she was dead-game trying to close into a tough pace scenario last time. 
 
Selections:  1-11-5-7
 
 
Race 9:  #2 Pyrite Mountain switches to Pletcher for his 4yo debut after flashing ability to begin his career.  Already a stakes winner over synthetic, he's lightly raced over turf but has run well in all three starts over this surface, and it's encouraging that he showed more speed when last seen at Woodbine, as those tactics could serve him well in this spot.  #10 North Star Boy didn't draw particularly well, but he's reliable to show up and run his race, and was a winner here last summer.  #5 Star Channel has never been one of our favorites, but he has a race to get to that would be very tough on this field, and he's generally a fair price.  #3 Which Market is another who can win, but he had all the best of it while closing into a fast and contested pace over a shorter distance last time. 
 
Selections:  2-10-5-3
 
 
Race 10:  
 
Saturday's running of the Grade 1 Diana drew a field of 10 fillies and mares and could hardly have come up a stronger race.  Each one of the 10 entered is already a graded stakes winner, half of them at the Grade 1 level.  Both #3 Somali Lemonade and #6 Discreet Marq are contenders, so let's start with them, as they may hold the keys to this race.  
 
Somali Lemonade has turned her career around with the addition of blinkers for her 5yo season.  She has shown more speed with her new equipment, and parlayed her new running style into a Grade 3 win at Pimlico and two other solid placings at the graded stakes level, including a game third-place finish in the Grade 1 Just a Game last time.  She set a solid pace that day with pressure throughout, and dug in determinedly at the end to hold onto her placing.  The question surrounding this race is:  Will she be allowed to get more comfortable up front and by so doing become more dangerous, or will Discreet Marq, who was up there applying pressure to her throughout the Just a Game, come after her early again?  
 
If she gets control, she's a big factor.  But with Discreet Marq in the field, it feels as if she is in for more of the same in the Diana, and that makes things very tough for her.  Same goes for Discreet Marq, who has shown in the past that she can rate and run but may be in a tough position in this race, having to keep Somali Lemonade honest up front.  
 
#4 Emollient is one of those Grade 1 winners, although the American Oaks field that she defeated last year was hardly of top-level quality.  She also has some speed and could be a pace factor in this race if ridden with that intent, but she has always been something of an in-and-outer.  In her defense, when she shows up with her best stuff, as she often seems to do on synthetic surfaces, she's quite good.  Her top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 111, earned in her valiant BC Filly & Mare Turf effort last year, gives her a big chance in this race--if she can repeat it.  
 
These horses are all contenders in the Diana, but we aren't sure what we'll get from any of them in this race, which makes it tough for us to back them with any confidence.  Because of that, we will go to a couple of different horses for our play.  #10 Tannery is as consistent as a horse can be, putting up TimeformUS Speed Figures between 104 and 114 for each and every start dating back to the end of 2012.  She was a very good 2nd last time out, in the Grade 2 New York, as she wound up in the unenviable position of having to chase a very good horse through a strong final fraction.  
 
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She came away second-best on the day, but it was yet another good effort for this horse, who seems to show up with nothing but good efforts.  We think she is the horse to beat, in a lot of ways, and will make her a major part of our play.
 
The other horse for us is #8 Alterite, who returns from the layoff for Chad Brown.  Alterite just missed vs. Group 1 company in France as a 3yo before arriving stateside to compete in the better turf races for her division at the end of the year.  That move paid off right away, as she came through with a much-the-best win in the Grade 1 Garden City over, among others, Discreet Marq and Emollient.  From there she went to Keeneland for the other major prize for 3yo turf fillies, the QEII.  Racing wide and too close to an enterprising pace that day, Alterite stayed on gamely all the way to the end but fell short of holding off the closing winner.  She then backed that race up quite well when 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf behind Dank and Romantica.  The layoff is a big question for her in this race, and we would not be thrilled to take her at the ML price of 3/1, but in a field this loaded, she may drift to a better price.  If she does, we'll be there to make sure she gets into our play.  
 
We will also include #2 Abaco somewhere, as she has developed strongly for Shug McGaughey and exits a fine try going longer last time behind the highly promising Riposte.  
 
Selections:  8-10-2-3
 
 
Race 11:  #2 All Included figures to take plenty of action here off of his visually impressive win in his turf debut downstate, but that race came back a little light on our speed figures, and he got a great trip in there in a race where the closers failed to show up.  We're against him at a short price, and are most interested in trying #3 Alarmed Ndangerous as he makes his second start back from a layoff after getting in a good-looking prep run earlier this month; has run well up here each of the last two years, including a pair of upset wins in 2012, and seems set up for success once again.  #7 McIlroy can contend, as he really picked up his game off the claim by Chad Brown and then found himself up against it last time in a race that was slow early and fast late.  Last time was the time for #11 Make a Decision, as he was likely to emerge victorious if he could have found room in the stretch; feels like a bit of fool's gold in this race.  #6 Alakazan Alakazan shows just one win, which came in his debut in his native Brazil, but he's run well in his US starts when logically placed. 
 
Selections:  3-7-6-2 
 
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