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TimeformUS Race Analysis August 27

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of Wednesday's Races at Saratoga

Race 2:  #1 Hi Speed Chase was overpowered by subsequent stakes winner Our Caravan when trying to stretch around two turns when last seen.  Makes 3yo debut with a slight class drop, and he has the kind of speed that can be dangerous on the cut-back.  #2 Marsh Creek chased the pace while thee-wide throughout and didn't have enough in the stretch on debut for Pletcher.  Steps down a bit in class and can do better in this field with any improvement.  #6 Alexndeed has come away second best without any excuse in each of his last two starts, so we don't want him on top, but he has drawn well on the outside and is a contender with a typical effort for him.  #4 War of Honor finished gamely for 2nd behind class-dropping speedster Frame in muddy track debut.  He's the lone entrant stepping up in class today but he won't require much improvement to make an impact here.  #5 Sherifco exits the same race as Marsh Creek and he had trouble in there on the far turn.  Will need to improve but is obviously eligible to do so. 
 
Selections:  1-2-6-4
 
 

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Race 3:  Tough PG Johnson features seven 2yo fillies, six of whom are stretching out in distance for the first time today. New face #1 Ancient Goddess may have found a good spot to make her stateside debut after taking some money and running well in each of her two starts in France.  New trainer does an excellent job all around and is especially good with runners switching to his barn for the first time.  #4 Flying Tipat is a maiden, but she's also the lone entrant to have been this far already and she finished gamely in her debut behind a pair of runners who were up on an easy pace all the way. Full sister Tapitsfly won this race a few years ago.  #2 Sunday Sonnet has looked quite good on dirt to begin her career, but she has the pedigree to handle this surface switch, being a half to the multiple graded stakes winning turfer Pianist, who has made almost $500k in her career.  
 
Selections:  1-4-2-6
 
 
Race 4:  #1 Beyond Empire may have finally found the right spot here, but he is a horse we are interested in being against going forward, especially when he is a short price, as he will most likely be today.  We'll try to beat him with #3 Gridley Here, who makes his dirt debut today.  He's second off the layoff and eligible to be moving forward in just his second start as a 3yo.  New trainer has solid ratings with runners making their second start out of his barn (87) and with runners stretching out from sprint to route (90).
 
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Selections:  3-1-4-6
 
 
Race 5:  #4 In Spite of Mama had speed in main track debut after taking some money and figures tighter second time out for trainer who is six for his last nine with turf sprinters in NY.  #5 Jessica's Ride trailed several of these on July 30th after breaking very awkwardly from the gate.  Never was asked for too much after that, and will get Lasix and blinkers while switching to grass for second start.  Of the firsters, #10 Hot Like Hepburn is a Freud, and she brought $230k after working 9.4 at OBS April.  #12 Madison Blues has plenty of turf pedigree and will debut for a sharp trainer should he draw into the field.
 
Selections:  4-5-10-7
 
 
Race 6:  #8 Club O R starts for excellent debut trainer who sports series of strong ratings across relevant categories with 2yos in maiden claiming races.  #9 Ms Eileen starts for an underrated trainer, and she is a half-sister to a Grade 1 winner in Sis City.  #5 Miss Potenza has the experience that her rivals lack, and she did some running in that turf debut before tiring late.  
 
Selections:  8-9-5-1
 
 
Race 7:  #6 Console ran his Saratoga turf sprint record to an impressive 2-for-2 when speeding to control and holding safe in a sharp turnaround in form on July 21.  If he runs as well again, he will likely win, but we thought that #1 Isn'tlovejustgrand ran equally well that day, and will give him a chance to turn the tables this time.  #4 Stormy Rocit is stepping up in class off a gutsy win over $25k claimers, and he was able to prevail that day despite being forced into a 4-or-5 wide run through the turn.  Will need to step it up vs. the top two.
 
Selections:  1-6-4-7
 
 
Race 8:  #2B Saint Pierre has improved since being turned over to a young trainer off to a strong start this year, and she has already sent out an upset winner at this meet.  We'll take him if he's the half of the entry that starts.  #10 Zane has endured some tough luck in NY recently, with his rider overcommitting to the inside all the way in each of his last two turf starts and then having his scheduled start up here rained off.  He keeps Joe Rocco, Jr. today, who was aboard for that convincing win at Gulfstream back in March.  #7 Sayler's Creek is one length away from winning six straight turf routes, but he's been getting one perfect trip after another in those races and was defeated the one time he didn't have all the best of it.  #6 Manchurian High has been in career form as a 6yo, and enters here directly off of game try going longer in stakes company.
 
Selections:  2B-10-6-7
 
 
Race 9:  #10 Ziptronic is way the horse to beat in this turf sprint after going back-to-back as an 8yo.  Each of his last three TimeformUS Speed Figures are faster than any race his competitors have managed to run recently and Pace Projector puts him in control of the pace in a race that favors runners on or near the lead.  #6 Casa Creek is the likeliest upsetter after enduring tough trips.  We think he can do better with a little luck this time, but he'll have to against Ziptronic.
 
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Selections:  6-10-7-2
 
 
Race 10:  #9 Retire Fifty Five had finished 2nd in both prior starts around this level on grass, including last one up here, in which he gave game chase to All Cash, who returned to just miss with winners in his next start with an 88 TFUS Speed Figure.  Will be tough with a similar effort vs. these horses.  #1 Eight Cents tries turf with enough pedigree to handle the switch, and he has speed from an inside post.  #3 Carson's Ten drops back down after failing to get involved vs. better in New Jersey.  He also has some speed and has had only one chance down around this level.  #5 Romans Paradise was behind Retire Fifty Five as the favorite last time without apparent excuse and will have to do better.
 
Selections:  9-1-3-5

 

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TimeformUS Analysis for August 25

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis of Monday's Races at Saratoga

Race 2:  #2 Swell had much early trouble in the Mike Lee, unnoticed by the chart caller, and had lost all chance by the time they hit the far turn, with the talented Captain Serious getting away easy on the lead. Finished gamely to be second-best to that horse one start prior, and he may get the right trip today, with a pair of talented and lightly raced horses drawn outside, both of whom have speed.  #6 Giantinthemoonlite made a sharp debut at Belmont back in the middle of May when overpowering maidens, but hasn't been seen since.  Not sure where he is right now, but if all is well with him leading into this, he's going to be tough.  #7 Cuantos was much more professional second-time out after racing greenly in his debut, and he was ridden out to an impressive score of his own.  Drew well on the outside, allowing his rider some options.
 
Selections:  2-6-7-4
 
 

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Race 3:  Competitive turf sprint goes as middle leg of the early Pick 3.  We want to give #2 Magical Moon a chance to re-find her best form after being steadied out to last at the start prior to getting wired last time out. She has a big race in her when things go right, and she's run very well twice over this turf course, including last summer when getting the best of a fast duel only to succumb late.  
 

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#7 Good So Far is a question mark in this race, but one we aren't sure we want to be knocked out by.  She was caught three-wide in a moderately paced sprint at Belmont last time, and she has been in a pair of turf starts that were won on the front end since arriving stateside.  #5 Spun Silky needs pace to close into, but she may get it in this spot, and she faced much better than this when third-best last time. 
 
Selections:  2-7-5-4
 
Race 4:  #5 Skerkis had to steady hard at the break when finishing well behind a 1/9 Pletcher firster on debut, and he will now turn back in distance while switching from turf to dirt and dropping in class.  Deserves another chance back on the main track, and this is likely the proper level.  Trainer Carlos Martin scores impressive trainer ratings with 2yo maiden claimers, and he shows 3 wins and 4 seconds from the last 9 he has debuted at Saratoga.  His #9 Grandpa's King shows up here with some good works on his tab.  #3 Mr Classic Seneca drops in class for Steve Asmussen and he's shown the kind of speed that can make him dangerous in a race like this.  #7 Banker's Boss has more of a turf pedigree, but his trainer has already saddled a couple of debut winners in maiden claiming company at this meet.  
 
Selections:  5-9-3-7
 
Race 5:  Chad Brown has (as usual) had a very good meet at saratoga with his 2yo first-time starters, winning with 5 of them overall, including 3 on turf.  Four of those debut winners have come for the owners of #11 Thebeatofthestreet, who brought $200k after working 10.1 at OBS April.  Chad's other firster, #9 Lady Eli,  is a half-sister to Bizzy Caroline, who was a multiple Grade 3 winner on turf in her career.  #4 Puca got in a prep sprinting on dirt earlier in the meet for Bill Mott and will now switch to a turf route, which figures to suit this half-sister to Finnegan's Wake (earner of over $635k on grass) much better.  #1 My Senses is out of a dam who was a Grade 3 turf winner, and #6 Classy Teacher worked 10-flat at the same sale that produced Thebeatofthestreet, and her trainer can win with first-time starters. 
 
Selections:  11-9-4-1
 
Race 6:  #2 Love to Run has some other speed to deal with in this spot, but if he goes from the rail we think he can get control of this race early, and we don't have much confidence in the closers in this race.  #6 Bemata failed to pick up his feet up here opening weekend and was claimed for $25k.  Returns for $20k, and is a question mark off of that last race.  #1A Ancient Rome is making his third start back from a long layoff, and he will benefit if a contested pace develops, which is certainly possible.  He was bumped into a stumble out of the gate last time and can do better here, though his entrymate, #1 Readthebyline, is a better horse. 
 
Selections:  2-6-1-3
 
Race 7:  #3 Zamquick looked good blowing a field out in Kentucky two starts back, then failed to show her speed up here on opening day and got wired by Aventure Love on a moderate pace.  Drops down looking for a win for connections who have struggled up here, and she is the speed.  
 
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#6 Benny's Bullet failed to stretch out effectively when up in class off the claim, but will appreciate the turn back in this race, and is entered back at the right level.  #4 Ever Awesome has shown speed going longer and just missed in last turf start back in December.  Back down in class for first start off the layoff.  #7 Bossanova Lady is a new face to this group, which isn't a bad thing, and she has turf pedigree for an underrated trainer.  
 
Selections:  3-6-4-7
 
Race 8:  #10 Maura's Pass was held up to rate early and wound up wide all the way behind a front-running winner in her turf debut.  Can do better than that second time on grass and has found a likely field.  #8 Jennys Creek has run out of chances, but she is competitive here with a typical effort, and she did have an impossible trip last time.  #7 Escape to Malibu is a first-time starter with enough pedigree for a hot trainer, all of which combines to make her interesting in a race like this one.
 
Selections:  10-8-7-2
 
Race 9:  #9 Stars Above Me impressed in her stateside debut, traveling strongly throughout while covered up behind horses, and then settling it quickly once clear in the stretch.  Shaped with potential overseas, and may be set to begin delivering on it now.
 
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#6 Goldstryke Glory is a dangerous speed dropping out of a graded stakes try in Canada, and she won each of her two turf sprints prior to that in impressive fashion.  #2 Quay steps up off of an impressive last-to-first score over this track and trip earlier in the meet, and she's always had the potential to go in races like this.  #8 Free as a Bird is a gem of consistency in these turf sprints and will be racing on late.  
 
Selections:  9-6-2-8
 
Race 10:  #5 Kelly's Prize showed speed going long on the main track last time and now switches back to turf to race with maiden claiming company on this surface for the first time.  Has faced much better than this on turf in the past.  #1 Miss Motivation had a good trip but could do no better than third at this level last time, though that was a tougher group of $40k maiden claimers.  #3 Kevin's Steel can be competitive here with her best race, and #10 Lutheran Miss drops down and stretches out for the first time after doing little running in turf debut downstate. 
 
Selections:  5-1-3-10

 

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Forbes’ Firsters for Monday, August 25, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Monday, August 25, 2014

Race 5, 2-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 3:14 p.m.

MY SENSES (bay filly, Street Sense—Palmilla, by Crowd Pleaser) is out of a grass runner who won the Grade 3 Robert G. Dick Memorial and placed in four other stakes. She has produced two starters to date, both winners on the turf.

Owner: Augustin Stable

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

 

COMPLICATED (bay filly, Blame—Consequence, by El Prado) is the first foal out of his dam, who won the American 1000 Guineas on the turf and was third sprinting over a synthetic surface in the Grade 2 Beaumont. Consequence is a half-sister to Strategy, who won a minor stakes at Aqueduct, and daughter of Educated Risk, who won six graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Frizette and Grade 1 Top Flight Handicap. Educated Risk was a half-sister to Hall of Famer and champion Inside Information.

Owner: Phipps Stable

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

 

LADY ELI (Divine Park—Sacre Coeur, by Saint Ballado) is a half-sister to Bizzy Caroline, who won the Grade 3 Regret and Grade 3 Mint Julep on the grass. His dam won a single race, a maiden special weight on the grass at Aqueduct Racetrack, in three starts and has produced one other winner – Montmarte, whose sole victory came on the grass in England – from a total of four starters. Sacre Coeur is a half-sisterto Changing Ways, who took the Grade 2 Schuylerville on the dirt; Jacodra’s Devil, who won the Santa Anita Breeders’ Cup Handicap on the dirt and was second by a nose in the Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap on the turf; and Jacodra, victorious in the Grade 2 Portrero Grande Handicap on the dirt.

Owner: Sheep Pond Partners

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $160,000 Keeneland September yearling; $160,000 Keeneland April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 seconds, video)

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

* Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

* Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

* Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

* Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

* Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

* Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

* Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

* Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

* Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration between Jon Forbes and Susie Raisher.

 

TimeformUS Analysis for August 24

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Saratoga on Sunday, Aug 24
 

Race 1:  #3 Girlaboutown made a promising debut against her more-experienced stablemate in the mud, and then blasted a field over a fast track up here last month with a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure.  She's taking the next logical step, and she's the speed.  #4 Saythreehailmary's hasn't advanced since making a promising debut of her own with a tough trip and then airing second-time out, but she is getting the right turn-back today and is switching back to her best surface.  #2 Very Accomplished is also cutting back to a better distance today.  Is a neck away from winning three of her last four dirt sprints.  #8 Blithely earned a big speed figure while riding along on a gold rail when last seen, but she's making her 3yo debut and is eligible to be an improved horse this year.

Selections:  3-4-2-8


Race 2#5 Bustin It tipped his hand when giving game chase to a heavily favored Pletcher runner in open company debut, and he came back with a romping win over NY-breds in his next start.  Has a lot of speed and a perfect outside post.  #2 Upstart impressed when blowing through on the inside to kick clear in promising debut win.  Suspect he may have more speed second-time out, and he's a dangerous player.  #4 Bullheaded Boy worked hard chasing the pace while wide and continued on gamely to prevail in his debut.  May not be as precocious as the top two, but he can run.

Selections:  5-2-4-3


Race 3:  Have to give #10 Barrier to Entry one more chance after disastrous trip last time.  Gets a positive rider change for this, and she's run better than it may appear in both turf starts this year.  #11 Southern Sunshine steps in with NY-breds for the first time as she makes her turf debut.  She has run the fastest races to this point, on other surfaces, and the turn-back in distance figures to suit her.  #5 Verismilitude switches to grass after giving futile chase to a blowout winner on the main track.  Has the pedigree to handle the change, being out of a dam who was a winner on grass and a half-sister to Wild Chick, who made $129k on turf.

Selections:  10-11-5-6

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Race 4:  Excellent running of the West Point matches up three of the top NY-bred turf runners out there in #4 King Kreesa, #5 Hangover Kid and #6 Lubash.  Lubash may hold some advantages regarding this trip and having recency, and he was impressive closing weekend at Belmont after extricating himself from a tight spot in the stretch.  He's good, but he'll be afforded no mistakes.  #5 Hangover Kid is fresh off a mild upset of the Grade 2 Bowling Green over 1 1/2 miles last month.  Won this race convincingly last year after turning back out of solid run over 1 3/8 miles in the Grade 1 United Nations.  #4 King Kreesa was the top NY-bred turf horse in training last year.  He's just getting started as a 5yo, but he's very tough if firing something approaching his best right off the bench.  

Selections:  6-5-4-1


Race 5:  #2 Hard to Stay Notgo made a highly impressive debut for a red-hot trainer, earning an 89 TFUS Speed Figure while overwhelming her rivals from start to finish.  Going to be very tough in here with a similar effort.  

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#5 Nonna Jo gamely outfinished #6 Myfourchixback on July 30th, but there wasn't much between them that day, and they both took money.  They'll have to do better against the top one, but they are eligible to do so.

Selections:  2-6-7-1


Race 6:  #10 My Friend Keith was in way too tough vs. open company over 1 1/4 miles last time.  Turf debut against NY-breds was a good enough effort, and he will have first-time lasix today.  #2 Slew's Brew has run well enough to win this in each of his three turf starts and is the horse to beat here despite lower-profile connections.  #9 Talladega made a nice late run through traffic to challenge for the win before settling for second best in his debut earlier this month.  He's a big player here with any improvement.

Selections:  10-2-9-4


Race 7:  Yaddo hangs on whether #4 Dayatthespa elects to await this spot or to take her chances in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa on Saturday.  If she runs here, we will take her over #5 Discreet Marq.  Should she scratch, Discreet Marq, a Grade 1-quality turf runner, is likely to be too tough for the rest.  

Selections:  4-5-6-1


Race 8:  With a fast pace projected, we expect #4 Flipcup to be tough in this race.  She had to work hard to close down #1 Alwaysinstilettos in the NY Oaks, but that horse had early control that day, and Flipcup was wide throughout the running.  We will also include #5 Star Grazing in our play.  She failed to impress when narrowly prevailing last time, but that was her first start around two turns, and she figures to have benefited from the experience.  

Selections:  4-5-2-3


Race 9:  Wide-open turf sprint requires some spreading in late-card multi-race exotics.  #11 Rumble Doll made turf sprint debut vs. field of $40k claimers, but she flew home down the outside of the track as though she may have found a new home, and there should once again be plenty of pace in front of her.  #3 All Mine Tonight made a promising turf debut last year, and she ran well behind a wire-to-wire winner off the layoff here earlier in the meet.  Figures tighter for this, and should have more pace in front of her.   #6 Court Dancer flashed plenty of potential as a 2yo, and her lone turf start last year came vs. colts in a stakes race.  Must be ready off the layoff, but she was an impressive debut winner at Saratoga last summer.  #7 Given Fire was impressive wiring a field last time, and she had trouble in her lone prior start over this track.  #1 Missy Bay and #10 Nonnie Connie are also capable turf sprinters who would benefit should the expected pace develop.

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Selections:  11-3-6-10


Race 10:  Not sure we trust #6 Captain Serious as he stretches out in distance off of a disappointing performance, so we'll look elsewhere in the Albany.  #7 So Lonesome has been concentrating on turf lately, but he's a prior winner over the main track here, and he was wide against a gold rail in his last dirt start.  We have been doing some chasing of #5 Effinex, and continue to believe that he has enough ability to contend in races like this.  He's run better than it may appear, and the trainer change he gets for this race is a big one.  #4 Empire Dreams comes here off a convincing win in the NY Derby.  Has no distance issues and has never run a bad race.

Selections:  7-5-4-6


Race 11:  #12 Dreamboat endured much trouble in his debut back in March, and all things considered ran a very good race that day.  Stepped up to try MSW company earlier in the meet, he is back at the right level today, assuming he can overcome his tough post.  #2 Cody's Notes took advantage of a fast and contested pace to get close in a race that fell apart late, but he is eligible to improve making just his third career start.  #1 Bold Senator just missed last time, though without an excuse.  Fits well with what has been assembled here.

Selections:  12-2-1-5

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