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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for July 18

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Friday, July 18
Race 1:  #4 King of Broadway drops in for a tag for the first time after a disappointing race last time over a Monmouth track that didn't figure to suit his style; ran well over this track and trip last year, and we think he's a horse who is at his best around two turns.  Viewing that last one as a prep for #5 Grandpa Len, who makes his second start back from an extended layoff while switching back to his preferred surface; can be tough in here if ready to get back to one of his good ones.  #1 Kowboy Boots has positional speed from a nice inside post for dangerous connections, and like several others in this field, is being placed where he is supposed to be competitive.
Selections:  4-5-1-8
Race 2:  First baby race of the meet is sure to have some talent on view, but with the most interesting firster, #9 Overspending, marooned on the AE list, we'll go with the experienced #2 Know It All Anna on top.  She debuted in a loaded-looking field downstate, with winner Angela Renee, a full sister to multiple Grade 1 winner To Honor and Serve, scoring for Pletcher with a solid 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and Rudy is a strongly rated 93 with his second-time starters.  #3 By the Moon is an Indian Charlie filly out of the dam By the Light, a multiple stakes winner who made over $885k and won the first five starts of her career.  #8 Wall Street Lady debuts for Tony Dutrow, who scores solid ratings across several relevant categories and who points for this meet; Speightstown is a versatile stallion, but there is a lot of turf on the dam side of this pedigree.  We'd make Overspending the top pick were she to get in for Pletcher, as she impressed in powering through a furlong in 10 flat at OBS March, prior to bringing $340k.  
Selections:  2-3-8-9
Race 3:  Grade 3 Schuylerville features #4 Fashion Alert, already a stakes winner for Pletcher as she makes career start number two, and she impressed in that debut run while posting a strong 97 speed figure.  She will be very tough to beat here, but #5 Take Charge Brandi has the pedigree to be a runner, and she was a highly impressive debut winner in her own right, showing easy speed to the front before getting away from that field while well within herself; she's an interesting alternative if they go overboard on Fashion Alert.  #3 Tulira's Star also made a nice-looking debut, hers over the Arlington Polytrack, and was privately purchased out of that effort by Team Valor;  has to do it on dirt, but her 84 speed figure gives her something to build upon.  
Selections:  5-4-2-3
Race 4:  #3 Mumtaazah flashed plenty of ability in debut at the end of last year, and did so despite being bumped into a stumble at the start and racing greenly before ultimately drifting in sharply in the stretch; figures tough if ready to build upon the 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned that day, and McLaughlin earns a perfect 100 rating with runners adding lasix for the first time.  
#2 Judy Legend earned a 91 for her Keeneland debut, and also displayed promise despite getting a very good trip in there; Motion runners tend to improve first-time lasix (98 rating) and with the switch from synthetic to dirt (96).  #1 Royalty, a full-brother to Travers winner Summer Bird, regrouped after getting run out of a couple of sprints as a 2yo, and returns with a trainer change to Jimmy Jerkens, who was hot downstate; may see a different horse this time.  Same may apply to his coupled mate, the well-bred #1A Running Wild, who took no money and was no factor when well behind Mumtaazah last November.  Firster #6 M B and Tee is a half to stakes-winning sprinter Jake Mo and shows up with solid works for a dangerous debut trainer.  
Selections:  3-2-1-6
Race 5:  Appears the right kind of spot for #3 Can'thelpbelieving, who put in a game wide run in tough Pennine Ridge stakes last time, and just missed after a furious finish at this level two back.  #8 Duke of Perth is a new face in a race that is open to a horse like him, and he was earning progressive marks over longer distances as a 3yo in England.  #2 My Afleet has held his own in a couple of similar spots since posting an upset in his turf debut, and projects for a nice trip saving ground in range of the pace.  #10 Special Agent has done little wrong since making the switch to turf, but he's had a pair of very good trips, and feels like the kind of horse who will be badly over-bet in this spot.  
Selections:  3-8-2-10
Race 6:  #6 Full Tap isn't your typical NY-bred, being by Tapit out of a stakes-winning dam and sporting a $430k sticker price.  Won't be surprised if she can run, for a trainer who tends to send his first-time starters out ready.  
#7 In Spite of Mama's dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning NY-bred Haynesfield, and she was a Saratoga debut winner en route to making over $240k in her career;  attracts Castellano for a trainer who sent out a pair of 2yo debut winners at Belmont (albeit on turf).  #8 Graeme Crackers is a half to a pair of turf winners, so his future may lie on that surface, but his trainer is among the very best in preparing babies to debut over these shorter sprint distances.  #1 Zo Zo was heavily backed when wired by Schuylerville starter Evrybdymstgetstonz; she ran into a little trouble on the turn in that race, but offered nothing after coming clear.  
Selections:  6-7-8-1
Race 7:  Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap for these solid $50k older claimers, and that figures to play to the benefit of #2 Monument Hill, who won a similar event down at Gulfstream two back; trainer points for this meet and tends to have his runners ready to fire off of brief freshenings here.  
#9 Majestic Raffy has trouble winning races but is competitive with his best race and is unlikely to be as short a price today as he was when a universal good thing off the Michelle Nevin claim last time.  #8 Joes Blazing Aaron has run the two fastest races of his life since being claimed by Ken and Sarah Ramsey and turned over to Mike Maker here last summer; romped with the benefit of an easy lead last time, but is unlikely to be able to get as comfortable today.  #6 Where's Danny ran the two best races of his life over the Aqueduct turf back in April, and was in too tough when brought back at the end of the Belmont meet; won't find this spot much easier, but he's in form, and will be a price. 
Selections:  2-9-6-8
Race 8:   #9 Gratitude raced clear on a strong pace in her turf debut down south, but was much more settled last time, and came with a strong run through the stretch to post a much-the-best win; trainer does well with maiden winners coming right back in turf sprints, and there is plenty of speed signed on to this race.  The expected pace may play most to the benefit of #10 Ballerina Belle, who is the horse to beat on the back of her TimeformUS Speed Figures of 101 and 99 for her two sprints over firm ground; has had no excuses when coming away second best in her two 2014 starts, but has faced better competition in those races.  #4 Kiss Me Lola can land a nice trip tracking the pace, and she figures to benefit from getting back to these 5-to-5.5-furlong sprints, over which she's run her best races by far.  Both #1 Zamquick and #3 Aventure Love impressed in recent blowout scores,  but both were accomplished in front-running fashion, and they are drawn right next to each other here.     
Selections:   9-10-4-3
Race 9:  #1 Storming Inti has held his own vs. some strong competition, and with plenty of speed drawn to the outside, he is perfectly drawn here to give his rider options; fought gamely and was likely best when posting a new top figure in narrow defeat vs. graded company two starts back.  #5 Tourist is the wildcard here, as he impressed greatly at Belmont last time, but did so with the benefit of a soft trip walking on the early lead; will have to do more racing this time.  #6 J to the Croft has rarely gotten the right trip or ride since being switched over to turf, but showed with his win last out that he can produce in the right situation, and figures to be an interesting price in here. 
Selections:  1-5-6-2
Race 10:  #8 Winter Wish exits a key race, which has already produced 5 next-out winners, and she was forced into a wide run through the turn after getting bumped and steadied back at the break.  
#9 Jet Majesty ran well in both 2yo starts despite failing to get the best of trips either time, and she gets a major rider upgrade for her 3yo debut.  #10 Maura's Pass is a half to turf stakes winner Iron Goddess and switches immediately to grass for a trainer who is dangerous with runners moving to this surface for the first time (100 rating).  
Selections:  8-9-10-6

Forbes' Firsters for Sunday, September 1, 2013

Jon Forbes


Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, September 1, 2013

Race 2, 2-year-olds Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf, 1:30 p.m.

READY PLAYER ONE (dark bay or brown filly, More Than Ready—Beau Dare, by Military) is the first named foal out of her dam, who won the one-mile Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies. Later in her career, she added sprint stakes wins in the Correction Handicap (dirt), Candy Éclair (turf), and Klassy Briefcase (turf). Beau Dare is a half-sister to Turfiste, who sprinted to victory in Black Gold on the turf and the Hansel over an all-weather surface.

Owner: Green Lantern Stable

Trainer: George Arnold, II

Jockey: Alan Garcia

Sales history:  $155,000 Keeneland November weanling


STOCK YARD HEN (bay filly, Rock Hard Ten—Perfect Six, by Saratoga Six) is a half-sister to Buffalo Man, who won at distances ranging from five furlongs to 1 1/16 miles and captured stakes on both dirt and turf. On the grass, Buffalo Man took the Grade 3 Appleton Handicap and Grade 3 Red Bank. Their dam won four dirt stakes: the Moccasin (seven furlongs), the Stormy But Valid Handicap (6 ½ furlongs), the Santa Paula (6 ½ furlongs), and the restricted Torrey Pines (one mile). Perfect Six is a half-sister to Commitisize, who garnered the Grade 3 Cinema Handicap and Grade 2 El Rincon on turf and Grade 3 Arcadia Handicap on dirt, and Rusty Spur, who won two stakes and was Grade 2-placed. Five of six foals out of Perfect Six to race have won.

Owner:  Casner Racing

Trainer: Eoin Harty

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $5,000 Keneland January yearling; $30,000 OPS April 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 4/5 seconds, video)


Race 7, 2-year-old Fillies, Seven Furlongs, Dirt, 4:06 p.m.

PERFECT LA COMETE (bay filly, Perfect Soul—La Comete, by Holy Bull) is a half-sister to Munnings, who as a juvenile was second in the Grade 1 Champagne and third in the Grade 1 Hopeful. He won the Grade 2 Woody Stephens and Grade 2 Tom Fool Handicap as a 3-year-old and at 4 posted a victory in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship. Perfect La Comete also is a half-sister to Munnings Sister, who has won four stakes and was third in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss Handicap. Their dam is an unraced half-sister to Lasting Approval, who on the turf won the Grade 2 Oak Tree Derby and placed in a pair of Grade 1 races, and Icon Project, who was victorious in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign.

Owner: Charles E. Fipke

Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan


SPANISH GOLD (dark bay or brown filly, Medaglia d’Oro—Promenade Colony, by Pleasant Colony) is a half-sister to Promenade Girl, who annexed the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher Handicap and was third in the Grade 1 Spinster and Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap, and restricted stakes winner Dattts Awesome. Their dam is a winning full-sister to Dance Colony, who won the Grade 2 Astarita and Grade 2 Adirondack as a 2-year-old and later earned a brace of Grade 1 placings. Promenade Colony, who has produced eight winners from 10 starters, also is a half-sister to Grade 1 winners Another Review and No Review.

Owner: Michael J. Ryan

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $120,000 Keeneland September yearling


Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, August 31, 2013

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, August 31, 2013

Race 3, All 2-year-olds, Seven Furlongs, Dirt, 2:00 p.m.

PURPLE SKY (bay colt, Pulpit—Tessa Blue, by Awesome Again) is out of a mare who won the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks. Tessa Blue, a half-sister to listed stakes winner Inner Harbour, has produced one starter, Elite Warrior, who lone win has come in a maiden claiming race at Calder Race Course.

Owner: Bruce Lunsford

Trainer: Albert Stall, Jr.

Jockey: Robby Albarado


HONOR CODE (dark bay or brown colt, by A.P. Indy—Serena’s Cat, by Storm Cat) is a half-brother to Noble Tune, who has won the Grade 2 American Turf and Grade 3 Pilgrim and was second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Their dam won a turf sprint stakes at Monmouth Park and is a half-sister to Vocalised, a two-time Group 3 winner in England. Honor Code’s second dam is Serena’s Tune, who won listed stakes on dirt and turf, and his third dam is Hall of Famer Serena’s Song, who won 12 Grade 1 races between the ages of 2 and 4, including the Haskell Invitational Handicap against males.

Owner: Lane’s End Racing and Dell Ridge Farm

Trainer: Claude McGaughey, III

Jockey: John Velazquez


MISCONNECT (gray/roan colt, Unbridled’s Song—Summer Raven, by Summer Squall) is a full-brother to Winslow Homer, who won the Grade 3 Holy Bull. Their dam captured the Grade 3 Tempted as a 2-year-old. Winslow Homer is her only winner from three starters.

Owner: Repole Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $180,000 Keeneland April 2-year-old (two furlongs in 21 2/5 seconds, video)

Race 5, All 2-year-olds, Seven Furlongs, Dirt, 3:02 p.m.

ALL MY MEMORIES (bay colt, Elusive Quality—Regal Engagement, by Cat Thief) is out of a mare who won the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. Regal Engagement’s only other foal to race is winless in five starts.

Owner: Mr Amore Stable

Trainer: Jason Servis

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Sales history: $60,000 Keeneland September yearling; $120,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 3/5 seconds, video)


GOOD RESPONSE (dark bay or brown colt, Medaglia d’Oro—Any for Love, by Southern Halo) is out of an Argentine-bred who won that country’s Group 1 Premio Mil Guineas (Argentine 1000 Guineas) and was third in the Grade 3 Las Cienegas on the turf in the United States. All five of her foals to race have won, including Distorted Love, who was second in the Grade 3 Sixty Sails Handicap.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Joe Bravo

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Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, August 25, 2013

Jon Forbes


Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, August 25, 2013

Race 2, 2-year-old Fillies, 5 ½ Furlongs, Dirt, 1:30 p.m.

POTOSI (bay filly, Badge of Silver—Classy Date, by Saint Ballado) is a half-sister to Jehan, who won a listed sprint stakes at Monmouth Park and also was stakes placed on the turf. Their dam is a placed half-sister to Deputy Warlock, who won the Cradle Stakes as a juvenile and placed in a pair of Grade 3 races. Classy Date has produced five starters, and four have won.

Owner: Starlight Racing

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $125,000 Keeneland September yearling


MEI LING (bay filly, Empire Maker—Lochinvar’s Gold, by Seeking the Gold) is the first foal out of a two-time winning half-sister to Master Command, who took five graded route stakes, including the Grade 2 Meadowlands Cup and Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap. Lochnivar’s Gold also is a half-sister to Aurora Lights, who captured the Grade 3 Sabin.

Owner: Barry Schwartz

Trainer: Michael Hushion

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Sales history: $500,000 Keeneland September yearling


GRATITUDE (bay filly, Elusive Quality—Tizdubai, by Cee’s Tizzy) is out of a mare who won the Grade 2 Sorrento as a 2-year-old. Tizdubai is a full-sister to Horse of the Year and two-time Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Tiznow, five-time graded stakes victor and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Budroyale, and California-bred stakes winner Tizbud. Tizdubai has produced one winner from four starters.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.


Race 8, 2-year-old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf, 4:44 p.m.

SABBATICAL (bay filly, Medaglia d’Oro—Daydreaming, by A.P. Indy) is out of a mare who won the Grade 2 Top Flight Handicap, Grade 3 Indiana Oaks, and Grade 3 Next Move Handicap. Daydreaming is a full-sister to Grade 1 Vosburgh Invitational victor Girolamo and Grade 3 Pilgrim winner/Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap third-place finisher Accelerator. She also is a full-sister to Supercharger, the dam of Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, and is a half-sister to stakes winner Harborage. Daydreaming has produced two winners from three starters, with both of her winners having prevailed on the turf. One of them, Imagining, was second in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby on grass.

Owner: Phipps Stable

Trainer: Claude McGaughey, III

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.


ZINZAY (dark bay or brown filly, Smart Strike—Music Room, by Unbridled’s Song) is the first foal to race out of his dam, an unraced half-sister to Music Note, who posted Grade 1 scores in the Beldame, Coaching Club American Oaks, Ballerina, and Mother Goose, and Musical Chimes, a turf runner who captured the Group 1 Poule D’Essai Des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) and Grade 1 John C. Mabee Handicap.

Owner: Regis Racing

Trainer: George Arnold, II

Jockey: Joseph Rocco, Jr.

Sales history: $250,000 Keeneland September yearling; $700,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 2/5 seconds, video)


CROWN QUEEN (dark bay or brown filly, Smart Strike—Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) is a half-sister to Royal Delta, who has won five Grade 1 races, including two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and has received the Eclipse Awards for Champion Three-Year-Old Filly and Champion Older Female. A half-brother to Crown Queen, Empire Way, was second in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis, and another half-sister, Carnival Queen, was third in the Grade 1 Alabama eight days ago. Their dam won a pair of Grade 3 races on the turf: the Grade 3 Mint Julep and the Grade 3 Locust Grove Handicap.

Owner: Beslilu Stables

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Mike Smith

Sales history: $1,600,000 Keeneland November weanling

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