Tuesday, August 12, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Wednesday, August 13
Race 1: Steeplechase
Race 2: #5 Warrior's Hero came away an unlucky loser two starts back after engaging in a race-long duel, and then had a tough go of it contesting the pace over a sloppy track going longer last time. Cutting back in distance, with his speed figures, should make him tough. #6 Broadway Bay lacked early speed but was finishing up well in his debut and retains the leading rider for his second start. #1 Celebrate We Will gets a strong pedigree rating of 93 for dirt sprints, and starts for a trainer who can win with a first-time starter.
Race 3: #5 Daddy's Lil Saint hasn't sprinted on dirt since a game finish to get second behind the talented Henry's Gal back in January. Didn't take to turf in the interim, and is a danger cutting back in distance after clearly not appreciating taking on more ground last time.
#2 Sheriffa put up a big win with the aid of an inside-speed-favoring track as a 2yo, but has mostly disappointed since then, and she could not take advantage of a perfect trip last time. #6 The Lost Tigress earned a competitive TimeformUS Speed Figure of 81 for her maiden win two back and is a dangerous horse for a trainer sporting strong ratings with runners making their third start off the layoff (95) and making the turf-to-dirt move (94 rating).
Race 4: #2 Jane's Heir is a new face to this group and has competitive turf form for a trainer who has already sent out a winner here from limited starters. Has tactical speed, which can be put to good use in a race that our Pace Projector indicates will favor runners on or near the early lead, and she handled an off track well here on July 27th, should those conditions prevail. #6 Revealing Moment has to stretch out, but she's turned her form around since switching to turf two starts back, and she has the speed to be a forward factor from the start. #8 Edie and #9 One Penny Piece finished close together when last seen downstate, but we're not sure they ran any better than the third-place finisher, #4 Tizallheart, that day. #3 Amulay may be the horse to beat on the main track, although she has been off form recently, and this two-turn 1 1/8 miles will be testing for her.
Race 5: #5 Kleptocrat put in a strong late run for 2nd behind a heavily favored drop-down winner in her debut, and earned a competitive speed figure for that effort. Since then, she had to be scratched after dropping her rider prior to a start on July 4th, and she ran off a bit in the post parade before her start vs. MSW company up here on July 23rd. She's back down in class for this and figures tough if getting back to an effort like that first one. #4 Laura Can Disco debuts for Gary Gullo, who has been a bit unlucky up here with eight 2nd- and 3rd-place finishes from 18 starters as opposed to only 1 winner so far, but he's already saddled 2 debut winners this year in maiden claiming company, at odds of 8/1 and 11/1.
#1 Mary's in Utopia didn't break and wound up on a four-wide chase when finishing far behind both #2 Penella and #3 Keep Right last time, but she has more speed when getting out cleanly, and we would rather have her this time.
Race 6: #9 Hear the Footsteps runs every time and has held his own going longer vs. some tough customers, but we think he's at his best sprinting on grass. Won three straight between 6 and 7 furlongs early last year before stretching out, and he's run well in both turf sprints so far this year.
#2 Escapist lost his best chance after failing to break sharply and having to steady behind horses early in the Quick Call. Has dangerous speed when getting away cleanly, and Pace Projector indicates that he may be in a position to take advantage in this field. #1 Great Attack is a rock-solid and consistent turf sprinter, and he has enough early speed to avoid being badly compromised. #4 Mr. Vegas hasn't been this short on turf since winning his career debut up here in impressive fashion way back in 2009. Has shown that he can still run while facing strong competition since returning this year as a 7yo. If we're off the turf, which seems a strong possibility, we'll look at #12 Zee Bros, who will be making his first start back from Dubai, and first North American start since getting burned off chasing a blistering pace in the Grade 1 Malibu last December.
Race 7: #4 Isabelle was way up against it in fast-paced Grade 3 try last time, but was convincing in back-to-back wins over NY-breds prior to that, both of which earned 99 TimeformUS Speed Figures, and her big maiden win came over a muddy sealed track. #2 Superior Sarah often settled for minor awards, but she has a race to get to that makes her a threat. She is the main danger if Isabelle gets hooked up on the pace early.
Race 8: #7 Aesthetique appeared to get in a perfect prep race off the layoff, and then got the wrong ride when being strongly rated for a long way when last seen. Deserves another chance. #1 Thatza Wrap was also strongly rated in that June 21st race behind Aesthetique, and she has clearly improved since switched to turf. If we're off, we'll give #8 Chrysolite one more chance, as she wound up wide while chasing a front-running winner on a fast pace in off-the-turfer earlier in the meet.
Race 9: #2 Tightend Touchdown is a fast and talented turf sprinter, and his ability to run his race from just off the pace may serve him well in this speed-laden field.
#6 Spring to the Sky has been sharp in posting back-to-back victories leading into this, and he likes this turf course, but he has been at his best on the lead, and he may be in a tougher position this time. If we're off the turf, we'd be tempted to stick with Tightend Touchdown, who handles the main track well, but it does seem like a good spot for #5 Dads Caps were that to be the case.
Race 10: #7 Two Seventeen is off the layoff, but he's dropping to the lowest level of his career, has run some of the top TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field, and his only two career sprints on dirt have come against much better horses. #3 Southern Blessing is cut in half by a top trainer and is supposed to be tough in a spot like this, but there appears to be a good chance that he'll catch a wet track again, and he has never run his best in those conditions. #11 Perfect Disco ran a new top figure of 88 when returned from the layoff with a drop in class, but couldn't go with the fast Sense of Peace and settled for second best.