Saturday, August 09, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Sunday, Aug 10
Race 1: Early Pick 3 kicks off with a potentially loaded race for 2yo NY-bred maidens. We are usually partial to experienced runners in these races, and #5 Thank You will be making career start #3 in this spot. Forget about his turf debut. We are expecting good things from the runners involved in that opening race here on July 20th and thought Thank You ran very well that day despite coming up just short. Of the firsters, #3 Market Conduct is a $100k yearling purchase, by Super Saver, and his dam's first 5 foals were all winners. #6 Tiz Time to Shine is the first foal from a multiple stakes winning dam. And #7 Bellamy Way goes for a hot trainer who saddled a 2yo debut winner up here last summer.
Race 2: For the most part, race 2 comes down to the second-time starter #5 Tiger D or the returnee #7 John Bailey. Tiger D was the lone first-time starter in his open company debut at Churchill and finished very gamely to just miss after having to steady at the break. He's going to be tough if bringing that race up here against fellow NY-breds. John Bailey has dangerous speed and improved his figures from start to start as a 2yo on turf. Eligible to have improved during his time off, he gets a change to a promising young trainer.
Race 3: Competitive group of NY-bred dirt routers lines up to go 9 furlongs, and with the speed starting from the three outside posts, we're anticipating an honestly run race early. That should play to the advantage of #2 The Brothers Rap, who has been settling for minor awards recently but owns the top Late Pace rating in the field.
#3 Went the Day Well will garner plenty of attention with that close 4th-place finish in the 2012 Kentucky Derby appearing in his running lines, and he is eligible for better in his second start back from a long layoff, but we're still not sure how good he ever really was. We don't want a short price on him.
Race 4: #4 Lady of Victory flashed speed and tired in her main track debut; now switches to turf and stretches out for her second career start. Has enough pedigree to suggest that she was getting a run in first time out to prepare for this. #2 Flying Tipat is a full sister to Tapitsfly, who was a multiple Grade 1 winner over turf for this trainer a couple of years ago. #8 Thebeatofthestreet is bred for turf on both sides, and her trainer is adept at winning with 2yo first-time starters on turf, particularly up here. #7 Miss Always Ready is a full sister to More Than Real, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf for Todd Pletcher a few years ago. #9 Trensita is the first foal from a dam who was Grade 3 placed on turf.
Race 5: #5 Duke of Perth finished behind a couple of these when 6th on opening day, but he did not have the best of it that day. The pace was slow, and Duke of Perth was taken all the way back to last in the early stages before racing on without threat through the stretch. He can do better than that second off the layoff, and he ran well several times over this distance in Europe.
#4 Bingo Kitten was similarly compromised when trying to close from last in a paceless race earlier in the meet. Distance is a bigger question for him. Bit of a guess with #1 Rankhasprivileges, who has started only once on grass to this point. That was in a Graded Stakes race, and while we think he is better suited to other surfaces, he has improved over dirt recently.
Race 6: With plenty of speed signed on here, including the #2 Visionandaprayer, #3 Ziptronic, and #9 Petey Cramer, we went looking for closers. While #6 With Exultation may be the most logical horse fitting that bill, he is now almost fully exposed after a good runner-up performance here early in the meet. We'll use him, but in the interest of looking for a better price, we'll go out of the box a bit with #8 So Scott. He's a better closing sprinter than anything else, in our opinion, and he ran a couple of races on turf early in his career that suggest he's not out of his element on this surface. We could also use #12 Special Selection, who likes to make one run from off the pace. He should revert back to being a bigger price today, and he's outrun his odds more than once in the past.
Race 7: #2 Blame Dixie looked good powering through a furlong in 10.2 prior to being purchased for $300k and turned over to Pletcher. It's becoming futile to play against these Warrior's Reward firsters, and he has another one here with #6 Highly Conditional, who goes for win-early connections. #9 I'll Show Me is a $1.3 million half-sister to Kentucky Oaks and Alabama winner Proud Spell, and will debut for Graham Motion. #3 Sophronia is a half to Wine Police, who was a debut winner up here a few years ago before placing in the Grade 1 Hopeful, and her trainer has already saddled a 2yo debut winner at the meet.
Race 8: #3 All Cash finally got his long overdue maiden win last time after a perfect trip. He's always had potential, so perhaps getting that first win will propel him to better things, and he does project to be in a perfect trip here in a race without much pace.
#8 Kwacha often settles for minor awards, but he ran well at Monmouth last time after being forced to take a wide run out of the turn. #12 Part is a 3yo dropping in class for the first time after failing to come forward off of a pair of promising efforts earlier in the season. Has little early speed and drew poorly on the outside.
Race 9: #7 Empressive Humor will have to step it up a bit from her debut, but she is eligible to do so, and we liked what we saw from her first time out as she was able to keep a hot firster from Pletcher's barn in range early and then overpower her late. #4 Take Charge Brandi earned the top TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field for her dead-game runner-up finish vs. the promising Fashion Alert in the Grade 3 Schuylerville here on opening day. That came on the heels of a highly impressive debut win. #3 Angela Renee has a big pedigree, and she ran to it when breaking her maiden with a strong TFUS Speed Figure of 93 first time out.
Race 10: #8 Stanford impressed winning first out at Monmouth and figures to be a square price for a Pletcher-trained 2yo off of that effort. #7 Cinco Charlie may not have much further to go, but he's a forward-moving 2yo who has impressed in each of his three starts to date, and he's already a graded stakes winner. Could easily be argued that he was best in the Sanford after engaging in a race-long duel. #3 Mr. Z endured a troubled trip in the Sanford and emerged an unlucky loser, though he didn't necessarily have it any worse than Cinco Charlie did, all things considered, and he may be overbet off of his noticeable difficulties.
Race 11: #11 Grand Rapport has gotten back into form on turf recently, and he's found the right spot with a fast pace projected if he draws in. #3 Nineinthenine worked a good trip toward the inside and finished gamely up here early in the meet in what was an encouraging performance first back from a long layoff. Projects for a nice inside ground-saving trip away from that fast pace. #2 Tapitdar is also second off the layoff after running well first time back. He's never run his best race at Saratoga, but he has mostly faced better than this up here.