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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for August 10

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Sunday, Aug 10

Race 1:  Early Pick 3 kicks off with a potentially loaded race for 2yo NY-bred maidens.  We are usually partial to experienced runners in these races, and #5 Thank You will be making career start #3 in this spot.  Forget about his turf debut. We are expecting good things from the runners involved in that opening race here on July 20th and thought Thank You ran very well that day despite coming up just short.  Of the firsters, #3 Market Conduct is a $100k yearling purchase, by Super Saver, and his dam's first 5 foals were all winners.   #6 Tiz Time to Shine is the first foal from a multiple stakes winning dam.  And #7 Bellamy Way goes for a hot trainer who saddled a 2yo debut winner up here last summer. 
Selections:  5-7-6-3
Race 2:  For the most part, race 2 comes down to the second-time starter #5 Tiger D or the returnee #7 John Bailey.  Tiger D was the lone first-time starter in his open company debut at Churchill and finished very gamely to just miss after having to steady at the break.  He's going to be tough if bringing that race up here against fellow NY-breds.  John Bailey has dangerous speed and improved his figures from start to start as a 2yo on turf.  Eligible to have improved during his time off, he gets a change to a promising young trainer. 
Selections:  7-5-4-8
Race 3:  Competitive group of NY-bred dirt routers lines up to go 9 furlongs, and with the speed starting from the three outside posts, we're anticipating an honestly run race early.  That should play to the advantage of #2 The Brothers Rap, who has been settling for minor awards recently but owns the top Late Pace rating in the field.  
#3 Went the Day Well will garner plenty of attention with that close 4th-place finish in the 2012 Kentucky Derby appearing in his running lines, and he is eligible for better in his second start back from a long layoff, but we're still not sure how good he ever really was. We don't want a short price on him.
Selections:  2-1-6-3



Race 4:  #4 Lady of Victory flashed speed and tired in her main track debut; now switches to turf and stretches out for her second career start.  Has enough pedigree to suggest that she was getting a run in first time out to prepare for this.  #2 Flying Tipat is a full sister to Tapitsfly, who was a multiple Grade 1 winner over turf for this trainer a couple of years ago.   #8 Thebeatofthestreet is bred for turf on both sides, and her trainer is adept at winning with 2yo first-time starters on turf, particularly up here.  #7 Miss Always Ready is a full sister to More Than Real, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf for Todd Pletcher a few years ago.  #9 Trensita is the first foal from a dam who was Grade 3 placed on turf.  

Selections:  4-2-8-9
Race 5:  #5 Duke of Perth finished behind a couple of these when 6th on opening day, but he did not have the best of it that day.  The pace was slow, and Duke of Perth was taken all the way back to last in the early stages before racing on without threat through the stretch.  He can do better than that second off the layoff, and he ran well several times over this distance in Europe.  
#4 Bingo Kitten was similarly compromised when trying to close from last in a paceless race earlier in the meet.  Distance is a bigger question for him.  Bit of a guess with #1 Rankhasprivileges, who has started only once on grass to this point. That was in a Graded Stakes race, and while we think he is better suited to other surfaces, he has improved over dirt recently.  
Selections:  5-1-4-3
Race 6:  With plenty of speed signed on here, including the #2 Visionandaprayer, #3 Ziptronic, and #9 Petey Cramer, we went looking for closers.  While #6 With Exultation may be the most logical horse fitting that bill, he is now almost fully exposed after a good runner-up performance here early in the meet.  We'll use him, but in the interest of looking for a better price, we'll go out of the box a bit with #8 So Scott.  He's a better closing sprinter than anything else, in our opinion, and he ran a couple of races on turf early in his career that suggest he's not out of his element on this surface.  We could also use #12 Special Selection, who likes to make one run from off the pace.  He should revert back to being a bigger price today, and he's outrun his odds more than once in the past.
Selections:  8-6-12-3
Race 7:  #2 Blame Dixie looked good powering through a furlong in 10.2 prior to being purchased for $300k and turned over to Pletcher.  It's becoming futile to play against these Warrior's Reward firsters, and he has another one here with #6 Highly Conditional, who goes for win-early connections.  #9 I'll Show Me is a $1.3 million half-sister to Kentucky Oaks and Alabama winner Proud Spell, and will debut for Graham Motion.  #3 Sophronia is a half to Wine Police, who was a debut winner up here a few years ago before placing in the Grade 1 Hopeful, and her trainer has already saddled a 2yo debut winner at the meet.
Selections:  3-2-6-9
Race 8:  #3 All Cash finally got his long overdue maiden win last time after a perfect trip.  He's always had potential, so perhaps getting that first win will propel him to better things, and he does project to be in a perfect trip here in a race without much pace.  
#8 Kwacha often settles for minor awards, but he ran well at Monmouth last time after being forced to take a wide run out of the turn.  #12 Part is a 3yo dropping in class for the first time after failing to come forward off of a pair of promising efforts earlier in the season.  Has little early speed and drew poorly on the outside.
Selections:  3-8-12-9
Race 9:  #7 Empressive Humor will have to step it up a bit from her debut, but she is eligible to do so, and we liked what we saw from her first time out as she was able to keep a hot firster from Pletcher's barn in range early and then overpower her late.  #4 Take Charge Brandi earned the top TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field for her dead-game runner-up finish vs. the promising Fashion Alert in the Grade 3 Schuylerville here on opening day.  That came on the heels of a highly impressive debut win.  #3 Angela Renee has a big pedigree, and she ran to it when breaking her maiden with a strong TFUS Speed Figure of 93 first time out.  
Selections:  7-4-3-5
Race 10:  #8 Stanford impressed winning first out at Monmouth and figures to be a square price for a Pletcher-trained 2yo off of that effort.  #7 Cinco Charlie may not have much further to go, but he's a forward-moving 2yo who has impressed in each of his three starts to date, and he's already a graded stakes winner.  Could easily be argued that he was best in the Sanford after engaging in a race-long duel.  #3 Mr. Z endured a troubled trip in the Sanford and emerged an unlucky loser, though he didn't necessarily have it any worse than Cinco Charlie did, all things considered, and he may be overbet off of his noticeable difficulties.
Selections:  8-7-3-10
Race 11:  #11 Grand Rapport has gotten back into form on turf recently, and he's found the right spot with a fast pace projected if he draws in.  #3 Nineinthenine worked a good trip toward the inside and finished gamely up here early in the meet in what was an encouraging performance first back from a long layoff.  Projects for a nice inside ground-saving trip away from that fast pace.  #2 Tapitdar is also second off the layoff after running well first time back.  He's never run his best race at Saratoga, but he has mostly faced better than this up here.

Selections:  11-3-2-7




TimeformUS Analysis for Aug 9

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Saturday, Aug 9

Race 1:  Tough opener as all seven entrants have a typical effort in a similar speed figure range. With Pace Projector favoring runners on or near the early lead, we will cast our lot with #2 Island Candy.  She has flashed sharp speed more than once in the past, and we like the turf-to-dirt move for this barn (80 trainer rating), as well as the cut-back in distance.  


#4 Wraith is the horse to beat on the heels of what feels more and more like an unlucky loss last time at this level.  At the very least, she ran a winning race that day behind a very live winner. #1 Gem City Gal is dropping and is fast enough to win; just needs to work out the right trip from the rail.

Selections:  2-4-1-6
Race 2:  Difficult maiden claimer features a pair of drop-downs on the outside who figure to take the bulk of the play: #7 Madd Exchange for Pletcher, and #8 Hi Speed Chase, who has plenty of speed and gets a trainer change for this.  We get their appeal and understand why they are the two to beat in here,  but we will try to get a little better price with the other class-dropper, #5 Ireland's Eye.  He too has speed, and he gets a switch from turf to dirt for a trainer who gets a perfect 100 rating with that move.  
Selections:  5-8-7-2
Race 3:  #9 Jonrah did well to get 3rd last time after rating back and moving around a stopper in a race that was dominated up front.  Has consistently run races that are competitive with these horses, and should have at least an honest pace in front of him.  #5 Storm is the horse to beat as he looks to keep his undefeated turf record intact.  Has displayed admirable versatility since coming back to his preferred surface for his last two starts.  #3 Adirondack Dancer is capable of a race that would make him quite tough in here, and he has the tactical speed to pull any kind of trip.  #10 Make a Decision was a very unlucky loser in a good field last time and will be tough with a similar effort, but he took the worst of the post position draw.  
Selections:  9-5-3-10
Race 4:  #2 Two Weeks Off was a $320k yearling buy, and he has a solid line up of works showing for Pletcher, who has already won with five 2yos at this meet.  #3 Requite is by hot new sire Warrior's Reward and he sports a series of 5-furlong works for a dangerous trainer.  #6 Call Daddy worked a quick 10.1 at OBS April before bringing $175k and also appears to be working well for a trainer who does excellent work, though he hasn't debuted many 2yos over the years. #4 Da Jenius has a big pedigree and is eligible to be a runner.
Selections:  2-3-6-4
Race 5:  #1A Be Bullish is the clear horse to beat in this $20k claimer restricted to NY-breds and is a likely winner with one of his better efforts, and since he's a 9yo, we won't be too negative about the big class drop.  Barn has struggled mightily since racing shifted upstate, however, and we cannot fully trust him at a short price.  As an alternative, we'll hope that #2 Quiet Power can get back to the form he was holding last year off the claim by this very sharp owner.  He's second off the long layoff here while dropping in class, though he'll clearly have to come way forward from that last one.  We could also include #7 Pretension as he comes back to his preferred surface after a pair of even efforts over turf.
Selections:  2-1/1A-7-8
Race 6:  #8 Zippity City is a City Zip from a dam who is a half-sister to the Grade 3 turf winner Tasha's Miracle, and he shows up with some good looking works for a dangerous trainer.  #10 Royal Squeeze has plenty of pedigree for trainer Chad Brown, who tends to have his 2yo first-time starters ready to go long on grass, especially up here.  #9 King of New York is a half to Waterway Run, a recent Grade 3 winner on grass in NY.  Bill Mott has a pair of very well-bred first-time starters down inside in #2 Tariff and #3 Dubai Sky, though he isn't known to push his runners for early success.
Selections:  8-10-9-3
Race 7:  #1 Sioux will have to be ready off the layoff, but he's eligible to improve as a 3yo, and we liked what we saw from him toward the end of last year.  Lost all chance with a bad stumble at the break behind the talented Samraat when last seen, but defeated a good field that included today's ML favorite, #4 Groupthink, on the square prior to that.  Groupthink is the horse to beat, but we've said that before and he is beginning to pile up the short-priced losses.  #7 Gran the Man impressed in front-running score over maidens downstate, and Pace Projector indicates that he may be at an early advantage once again.
Selections:  1-4-7-5
Race 8:  Guaranteed Late Pick 4 kicks off with a clear horse to beat in #1 Point Roll.  He disappointed greatly as a solid favorite when last seen, but his grass race of May 21 would be too much for this field. He has a good post inside, and with Pace Projector indicating that a fast pace is on tap for this race, he may fall into a perfect ground-saving trip.  If he bombs again, it becomes wide open, but we'd back up with only #4 Archer Hill and #8 Birchwood Road.
Selections:  1-4-8-10
Race 9:  Both #2 Kiss Me Lola and #10 Ballerina Belle were compromised on opening day behind an average and uncompetitive pace, and neither could reach the front-running winner late.  A fast pace is projected for this race, which will play more to their favor, especially Ballerina Belle's, as she got going too late over this shorter sprint distance last time before blowing by after the wire.  
#5 Jitney can also take advantage if things start coming apart late, and she'll offer value in this spot.
Selections:  10-2-5-1
Race 10:  Short but solid field set to line up in Wise Dan's absence, with #1 Silver Max the horse to beat. Ultra-consistent speedster can take charge from his inside post, and he has proven difficult to close down when allowed to control things early.  #2 Seek Again and #3 Jack Milton are both capable with their best but will have to hope that #5 Sayaad takes the race to Silver Max early, which is not out of the question.
Selections:  1-5-3-2
Race 11:  New face #7 Trophee has a big pedigree and will get first-time Lasix as she ships in to race out of Christophe Clement's barn for the first time.  Of the others, #3 Coronette and #6 Forensic have run the best races to date.  #5 Easton Arch is eligible to come forward a bit after getting a little break, and we would prefer to include her, though she is cross-entered to a race at Monmouth should Shug decide not to run two in this spot.
Selections:  7-5-3-6

TimeformUS Analysis for August 8

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Friday, August 8
Race 1:  Wasn't much separating #7 Heir to Dare and #1 Pure Vida Zen when they met here on July 24th, but Heir to Dare had the better post and got the jump to prevail.  She gets the best of the draw once again, so we'll see if it makes the difference.  
#6 Bobby Jo faced much tougher in her first two starts of the year, but disappointed when properly spotted last time.  New trainer gets a perfect 100 rating off the claim.
Selections:  7-6-1-2
Race 2:  #1A Lamontagne has big speed, which she did not use to best effect when last seen.  Faces some interesting first-time starters here, but can be hard on them if allowed to roll this time.  #7 Path Dependent is a half to a four-time winner in France, and his dam was group-placed over there.  #2 Hillbilly Style brought $250k at auction and is out of a dam who was a multiple graded stakes winner on turf.  Graham Motion sends two in #4 Easy Comparison and #5 Potthast, and while neither of them sports much pedigree, their trainer is going well right now and tends to do well with 2yo maidens on the grass (85 rating). 
Selections:  1A-7-1-4
Race 3:  #2 Confrontation won twice over this track last summer and came through with perhaps his best performance last time when gunning down a solid field through the stretch.  
#1A Cherokee Artist defeated a strong group in a Monmouth overnight stakes race last time and performs well anywhere from six to nine furlongs.  #5 Politicallycorrect has been off form recently, but he has some fast races to get to and is at his best over this trip.  He needs pace to be most effective, but he may not get much of it here. 
Selections:  2-1/1A-5-3
Race 4:  Filly division of 2yo maiden turf sprint goes with eight entered for grass.  #2 Magnificent Margo appears to have trained well up to this, and she is a half to a 12-time winner over grass.  #6 Tela is the first foal from Tejida, who is herself out of Batique, a multiple graded stakes winner on turf.  Trainer Michael Matz gets a 91 rating with 2yo maidens on grass and an 85 rating with turf sprinters.  #4 Lady Zuzu is a half to Optimizer, who made over $700k on turf for this trainer. 
Selections:  2-6-4-1
Race 5:  #5 Bella Kateri made the first move into a fast pace to take the lead, but was run down by a last-to-first closer in turf debut.  Has displayed promise in both starts to date.  #2 Chasing Paradise took a strong run at front-running winner Jet Majesty here opening day, and appeared to put a head in front late, but was turned away and settled for second-best. Has run well in all three turf starts to date.  #7 Joshans Giant finished gamely through the stretch after getting bumped at the break and racing greenly in her sprint debut.  Can build off of that effort for a trainer going well right now. 
Selections:  5-2-7-1
Race 6:  #7 Winter Games kicked the meet off by wiring a field over this trip on the drop, earning a new top TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process.  He was game to turn away two different challengers in that race, and Pace Projector indicates that similar aggressive tactics could play well in this field.  #2 Lieutenant Seany O drops in class for a struggling barn and has distance questions to answer, but his best race puts him there.  #1 Betweenhereandcool plunged in class and came away a no-excuse 3rd here last time. Best effort wins this, but we'll make him put it up to beat us. 
Selections:  7-2-1-5
Race 7:  #9 Dominate has improved since switched to grass, and he made a strong mid-race move before weakening late vs. a tough field of $40k claimers last time.  #4 Loveisheartandsoul blew out maidens toward the end of last year before racing on gamely vs. tougher after a troubled start to close out 2013.  Must be ready off the layoff, but is a big threat if he is.  #5 Handsome Dennis is logical as he comes down another notch in price, but he's exiting a trio of no-excuse losses since arriving in NY.
Selections:  9-4-5-8
Race 8:  #4 In Her Day went to the sidelines after a disappointing effort as the favorite back in April, but was a convincing winner while against an inside-speed bias in her prior start. Half-sister Mother Russia was a multiple stakes winner over Saratoga turf.  
#8 Fantastic Eyes is best as a turf sprinter, so we can put a line through her last start going long on the main track.  Has run races that make her very competitive in here.  #3 A P Johnson was a debut winner up here last summer before stretching out in stakes company and obviously has plenty of upside.  
Selections:  4-8-3-9
Race 9:  #7 Bobby's Kitten is the horse to beat in the Hall of Fame after things didn't work out for him when shooting for a big purse going longer last time.  Cut-back works to his advantage, and he may simply be better than these horses.  Of the ones exiting the Manila Stakes downstate, we want #6 Bashart, who was chasing a fast pace the entire trip while making his first start off the layoff.  He won twice up here last summer before running a winning race in the Bourbon at Keeneland with a tough trip.  #1 Give No Quarter remains unclassified after crushing allowance foes with a perfect trip in his turf debut.  This is a big step up, but maybe he's this good.
Selections:  6-7-1-5
Race 10:  #6 Murmure drops all the way down for Pletcher (100 rating with claimers down in class) while switching from turf to dirt (100 rating) and is unlikely to find a better spot than this.  
#2 Molly Jordan is cut in half by a struggling barn for her second start off a long layoff after running into a big blowout winner up here earlier in the meet.  
Selections:  6-2-4-7

TimeformUS Analysis for August 7

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Thursday, August 7

Race 1:  Steeplechase
Race 2:  #1 Star Grazing is still lightly raced, but she's shown potential from the start, and her win off the layoff at Belmont was a nice effort over a talented stablemate of hers who came right back to drill a field up here with a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure.  
Has to stretch out, but she's a half to Friend or Foe, who won the Empire Classic over this distance a few years ago and then ran fourth in the Whitney.  #5 Devious Maddy is the fastest horse to this point and has improved some with the switch to dirt for Leah Gyarmati.  She has tactical speed and is a threat to Star Grazing.  
Selections:  1-5-4-2
Race 3:  Surprised #6 Thirst for Glory doesn't get another chance on dirt, as he ran very well in his debut.  That was a very "live" looking maiden race, and Thirst for Glory was hung up on a four-wide chase.  He has enough pedigree to handle the grass and faces mostly first-time starters.  #3 Brother O'Connell is the most dangerous of those, as his trainer excels with runners debuting in turf routes (100 rating), and he has the pedigree (95 rating).  Chad Brown also does well with first-time starters routing on turf, especially at Saratoga, and he has both #7 Chief Kitten and #8 Startup Nation, both of whom are also sporting strong pedigree ratings for turf routes.  
Selections:  6-3-8-7
Race 4:  No idea what to expect as a group of six goes 1 3/4 miles for $100k, but #5 Micromanage feels like the best horse in the race.  He may not be the best horse over this kind of trip, and we did think that the 1 1/2 miles did him in on Belmont Stakes Day, but that was against a much better field.  If he can't see out the trip, it's wide open and both #3 Seton Hall, who has handled dirt, and #4 Don Dulce become bigger players.
Selections:  5-3-4-1
Race 5:  #1 Miss Motivation made a good run from off the pace to be a clear 2nd behind a front-running winner two starts back, and she had to check at a crucial stage and was wired again last time.  Up in claiming price, but facing fellow NY-breds for the first time today.  #5 The Lady's Cruisen stretches out and drops in class for her third career start, and she goes for connections that are on a bit of a roll right now.  #3 Transplendid has run some races that would make her tough in here, but she has continually come up short and had no real excuse last time when closing in a race dominated by off-the-pace types.  
Selections:  1-5-3-6
Race 6:  #1 Q Two got away soft on the lead vs. just 4 others to break his maiden on the drop, but he's got the upside vs. a group of horses who have made at least 10 starts already.  He's the only horse in the field with a win around two turns on dirt outside of #4 Golden Nugget (win came at Finger Lakes, and he's devoid of speed) and #6 Sky Colors (his win came over two years ago).  #7 Chrisandlorisposse has used his speed to positive effect before, and he may benefit from the class relief here after going badly off form recently.  
Selections:  1-7-5-6
Race 7:  #4 Manner of Speaking must be ready off the layoff, but she drops in class after a pair of decent efforts vs. much tougher as a 2yo, and she will have Lasix for the first time today.  
#7 Tenacious Indeed also drops in class, and it appears to be something she needs after a pair of tries vs better in which she simply couldn't contend late.  #6 Fire Ship and #9 Make Your Point both exit the 6th race from July 21, when 3rd and 4th behind #10 Kevin's Steel.  Thought Fire Ship was the most eligible to do best of those three, as she lost some position while in traffic before finishing gamely, while the other two had perfect trips. 
Selections:  4-7-6-10
Race 8:  #4 Defiant took no prisoners en route to a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure blowout of MTH sprinters when cut back off of a short break.  There is other speed in this race, but they may not be able to go with this horse early, assuming he can put up a similar performance.  #2 Bluegrass Springs may find this 5.5-furlong distance a little sharp, but he handles 6 furlongs well downstate and will be a late threat if a fast pace develops.  #9 Casa Creek improved when cut back to race over synthetic two starts back, and he endured much trouble early when finishing behind Bluegrass Springs last time.
Selections:  4-2-9-5
Race 9:   #1 Ghurair gets a cut back and a class drop, both of which are expected to make him tough today.  He rolled over allowance foes two back despite a lack of pace up front that day.  
#3 Red Rifle has run well in both turf starts to date, and he projects for a comfortable trip up on what is expected to be a moderate pace.  #2 Marine Patrol has been consistently solid over turf and may turn out to be a nice claim for his new connections.  Thought #5 Lochte ran well while trying to close from behind Red Rifle two starts back, but he was a non-factor when stepped back up last time.  
Selections:  1-3-2-5
Race 10:  We tried #5 Barrier to Entry last time and thought she ran well despite tiring after making a quick early pace. She also found a much tougher field that day, and can be tougher vs. this group if bringing her speed once again.  #11 Home to Carrowkeel figures to be a bit of a wiseguy horse in this spot after an adventurous debut downstate, but she did run well despite much trouble that day.  #9 Given Fire endured a very tough trip over this course and distance way back in 2012, and she went away for a long time after making only one more start.  Has had a race off the layoff, and she was contesting the pace that day in a race that fell to closers.
Selections:  5-11-9-3