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TimeformUS Analysis for August 15

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing on Friday, August 15
 
Race 1:  #2 Timely Cat was outsprinted in her dirt debut but may appreciate switching to grass, as her unraced dam is a sister to a pair of stakes performers on that surface, and she'll be a price.  #6 Ten Penny Princess was also outrun when finishing ahead of Timely Cat in that July 2 dirt sprint. She took a lot of money that day and was entered back on dirt for Thursday, but wasn't able to draw in to that race.  #5 Bebop Raindrop is the first foal from a dam who is a half-sister to Cloudy's Knight, who was a multiple graded stakes winner on turf.  
 
Selections:  2-5-4-1
 
 
Race 2:  Early Pick 4 kicks off with 2yos.  #2 Tizquick is by the hot stallion Tiz Wonderful, and his dam was a stakes winner, as well.  Trainer John Kimmel has sent out three first-time starters so far at this meet and all ran very well, including Street Blush, who was a winner at 11/1 for this owner, and Bar of Gold, who won the 5th yesterday.  We'll use him along with #4 Upstart, who brought $130k at auction and debuts for one of the best trainers in the game with 2yo first-time starters.  
 
Selections:  2-4-5-6
 
 
Race 3:  #1 Rangey ran too well to lose off the layoff, cutting a fast pace all the way and getting run down late by a perfect-trip winner.  He'll be tough with a similar performance, and Pace Projector indicates he may have an easier time of it early today.  He's a horse we'll be looking to lean on in the early Pick 4 and Pick 5.  
 
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For backups, we'll use #3 Lulu Rocks, who makes his turf debut with some pedigree as a half to Mystic City, a multiple winner on turf, and #4 Special Selection, who wheels back quickly to make his second start off the claim. 
 
Selections:  1-3-4-5
 
 
Race 4:  #2 Taketheodds drops out of a Grade 1 try earlier in the meet to try nine furlongs again, and she may be able to clear to the early lead this time.  She has flashed some ability and still has plenty of upside.  #1 Sheer Drama was a winner over this track and trip last summer, and she will appreciate getting back to the main track after a foray on grass. #5 Penwith didn't class up with graded stakes company in Florida earlier this year, but she can do better with these horses and is eligible to have developed further during her time off.
 
Selections:  2-1-5-4
 
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Race 5:  #7 Vischer Ferry turns back out of a pair of longer efforts where we thought he ran well while either chasing or cutting fast paces.  Found the right kind of field, assuming he can deploy his speed over this shorter trip.  #8 Latigo Trail has run well in each of his last two starts, as well, only to come up short at the end after opening clear stretch leads. #2 Tapidor gets a trainer change for his 3yo debut after showing some ability last year. May be getting in a prep here for something longer down the road, but he's worth including somewhere in your play.  
 
Selections:  7-8-2-3
 
 
Race 6:  #1A Night Maneuver was rated along a dead rail when outfinished late on July 11, and he faced a tough task chasing speed-ball River Rocks up here last time.  Projects for a better trip this time tracking on the outside in a race that favors runners close to the pace.  
 
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#2 Chilton has won four sprints in a row, including the last three since being claimed by these connections.  Dead-game squeezing through along the rail to outfinish odds-on The Rhythmisright last time.  
 
Selections:  1A-2-6-4
 
 
Race 7:  #10 Vasco Da Gama appeared to be a horse in need of a race while racing greenly and then failing to finish hard in his belated debut at Monmouth.  Figures to have benefited from that experience, and Pletcher does well with these horses after a start.
 
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#8 Decisive Edge has run well in each of his last three starts and is going to be tough with a similar effort in this spot.  #2 De Facto couldn't go with Lunar Rover as that one rolled away to a convincing win in an off-the-turfer here last month, but he is an improving horse who can make good use of his inside post.
 
Selections:  10-8-2-6
 
 
Race 8:  #4 Remember Then is bred for grass, but thus far has been best on other surfaces, though she has kept mostly graded stakes company on turf.  Plenty of pace signed on to this race to set up her run, so we'll give her one more chance.  #7 Stormin Elle deployed a newfound tracking style en route to convincing win back on turf last time, and she can factor here with a similar effort.  #3 Tabreed will also appreciate any pace that develops as she drops out of graded stakes company for the first time since blowout win at Keeneland last October.  
 
Selections:  4-7-3-6
 
 
Race 9:  #1 Saratoga Snacks heads a stellar cast for the $100k John Morrissey, and he makes his first start off the trainer change to Bill Mott.  He's an infrequent racer, but a talented one, and will be tough in here if ready for his best off the layoff, which has been the case in the past.  
 
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Endured a tough trip from the rail in this race last year, but with speed types #2 Brigand, #5 Moonlight Song and #6 Big Business drawn outside, he may do better this year.  Big Business has come back in top form this year, and he will appreciate cutting back in distance for a trainer who has struggled up here.  #8 West Hills Giant is an effective dirt sprinter, and he may get a better set-up today after being forced into a wide run into moderate fractions last time.
 
Selections:  1-6-8-5
 
 
Race 10:  #6 My Four Rewards ran well up here last summer at about this level despite lacking a clean trip, and she had little chance to impact two back on turf when wide in a race that was dominated up front.  #7 Outer Orbit stepped up her game while making a solid pace all the way when switched to turf last time, and she is entered at the right level. #5 Echluath may simply be a better dirt horse, but she began her career on turf with a couple of promising efforts and has never raced this cheaply on this surface.
 
Selections:  6-7-5-9
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, August 14

Susie Raisher

Forbes’ Firsters for Thursday, August 14

Race 6, All 2-year-olds, five furlongs, dirt, 3:10 p.m.

MALIBUWARRIOR (chestnut colt, Malibu Moon—Alpha Kitten, by Tale of the Cat) is the first foal from his dam, a graded stakes winner who earned  more than $225,000. Alpha Kitten was a Del Mar debut winner at 2 who went on to take Santa Anita’s G2 Santa Ynez in January of her 3-year-old season. She placed in two additional graded stakes races, all on all-weather tracks. Second dam Alpha Mama is a full-sister to Marylebone, winner of the G1 Matron at Belmont as a 2-year-old. Malibu Warrior was the fourth highest price offspring of Malibu Moon to sell as a yearling at auction in 2013.

Owner: Alto Racing, LLC

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $500,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

BINGLEY (bay colt, Medaglia d’Oro—Funny Feeling, by Distorted Humor) is the first foal from his dam. Funny Feeling broke her maiden upon her debut in the fall of her 2-year-old season at Churchill Downs. She would go on to become a stakes winner and twice stakes placed sprinting on the dirt. Funny Feeling is a daughter of Hookedonthefeelin, a Grade 1 winner. Other offspring of Hookedonthefeelin include Grade 1 winners Pussycat Doll and Jimmy Creed, the latter of which is a full-brother to Funny Feeling. All three achieved their success at sprint distances on the dirt. Bingley was among the top 10 auction yearlings for his sire.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Christopher DeCarlo

Sales history: $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

 

TimeformUS Analysis for August 14

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing on Thursday August 14th

Race 1:  Steeplechase
 
 
Race 2:  #3 Vale Ridge is a bit of a guess, but she lands in a field where the three favorites have combined for 10 second-place finishes in 16 career starts.  Drops in class with a trainer change to Robert Reid, who gets strong trainer ratings across several categories, including with horses making their first start out of his barn (91).  She has never run on dirt but is a half to the once-promising dirt horse Force de La Nature (won her first start on dirt, and then was Grade 3-placed at Saratoga in her second start), and her sire was undefeated on dirt in his brief career.  #4 Sun and Moon is the horse to beat as she returns from a short layoff with a slight drop in class.  Has settled for second in four of six career starts, but has faced better than these.  #1A Sky Crew has speed from a good post and makes her second start back as a 3yo after earning speed figures of 93 and 91 in her last two starts as a juvenile.  Trainer does well with turf-to-dirt moves from a limited sample.  
Selections:  3-4-1A-2
 
 
Race 3:  #7 High Heel Kitten earned the top last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field for her maiden win over 1 1/4 miles last time, and that 94 gives her the top two turf figures in the field overall.  Found a nice spot here to go back-to-back for a trainer who can keep them going in the right direction.  
 
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#1 Sabbatical has room to step forward, and perhaps she will as she switches back to turf for the first time since last summer.  Maiden win over synthetic was convincing, if not very fast.  #2 Glorious Chant, #3 Princess Mara, #4 Silky and #5 Neat Package were all undressed by the promising Crown Queen last time and will clearly need to do better in order to contend. 
 
Selections:  7-1-3-5
 
 
Race 4:  #5 Easy Living is two for two on dirt and she picked up her game when wiring a field at Belmont last month with a new top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 91.  
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Has to see out an extra furlong at Saratoga, which is no small thing, but she has upside and may be able to grab early control.  #3 Tahoe Tigress may be better suited to the one-turn routes run downstate, as she has a strong turn of foot, which she has used to devastating effect since being claimed for $35k last year.  Ran well enough in this race last year to try again, and this barn is going well right now.  #4 Royal Suspicion is competitive with her best effort, and she was best at Monmouth last time after keeping close to a solid pace that collapsed at the end, but she often settles for minor awards.  
 
Selections:  5-3-4-1

 

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Race 5:  #3 The Lewis Dinner and #10 Saluda are experienced runners who have both run well enough to ensure that the first-time starters in this field will have to possess some talent in order to win right off the break, but there are some interesting horses making their debuts in here.  #6 Go Babe brought $115k at OBS March after working 10.1, and she has put in some sharp breezes leading up to this for a trainer who can win with first-time starters.  #8 Lady Daphne also arrives with a solid work tab in tow, and she is out of a stakes-winning dam who is a half-sister to the fast multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Too Much Bling.  #9 Bar of Gold is another working well for a solid outfit and is eligible to be a runner. 
 
Selections:  6-8-3-9
 
 
Race 6:  Todd Pletcher typically dominates the 2yo maiden races around here, though he has won with just 3 of his 17 first-time starters so far this meet.  He has a pair in here, and we prefer #4 Blofeld, who is well-bred and worked an impressive 10 flat in March prior to being sold for $225k.  #7 Bingley is the first foal from a stakes-winning dam who is herself a sister to Grade 1 winners Jimmy Creed and Pussycat Doll.  #3 El Kabeir brought $250k as a yearling and starts for owners who typically have their first-time starters ready to go. He has been training well for his debut.  
 
Selections:  4-3-7-1
 
 
Race 7:  #6 Wine Burglar dropped a tough one after holding the lead all the way down to the wire last time out.
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She was closed down by a class-dropper who is better than what she'll face today.  #4 Al's Gal was defeated without excuse as the favorite when last seen, but she's first off the claim and is a logical horse in this race.  #5 Eurokay by Me is impossible to take on top at 1-for-42 and counting, but she was wired after stumbling at the start and winding up last early in her most recent turf start, and she received an unaggressive ride while on a clear lead on May 25th, which may have cost her her best chance.
 
Selections:  6-4-5-7
 
 
Race 8:  #6 Photon has gone back-to-back since cutting back to sprint off of a short break, and he's beaten a couple of today's rivals on the square to post those wins.  #1 Sense of Peace was closed down by Photon after building an apparently insurmountable lead last time.  He has speed and an inside post and is going to be tough once again if bringing his best effort off the claim.  #2 Take Down Two has fallen just short of both Photon and #7 Storm Pursuit recently, but he's proven himself to still be capable as a 9yo, and he is first off the claim for dangerous connections. 
 
Selections:  6-1-2-7
 
 
Race 9:  #7 Run to Mama really improved with racing as a 3yo, and was arguably best in all three turf starts toward the end of the year after getting blocked in traffic and clear too late on October 26th.  Scratched at the gate from her expected return on July 26th, she deserves another chance here.  #5 Distorted Beauty is the horse to beat after stretching out effectively in that July 26th race, which was won in wire-to-wire fashion by Palace Dreams.  #8 One Time Only stretches back out after settling for second best over 6 furlongs at Belmont.  Has speed in a race lacking much of same, and can get the right trip either on or just off the early lead.  
 
Selections:  7-5-8-1
 
 
Race 10:  #1 Tarpy's Goal has won three of his four starts around one turn on dirt this year, and he has enough speed to avoid being compromised from his inside post in a race that Pace Projector indicates will favor runners on or near the lead.  #8 The Big Deluxe has also benefited from concentrating on shorter dirt races recently, and he is the speed from his outside post.  #5 Joking was given a little break after just being outfinished by #2 Real Estate Rich when last seen in April.  Fits well in this field with his best race. 
 
Selections:  1-8-5-7

 

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TimeformUS Analysis for August 13

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Wednesday, August 13

Race 1:  Steeplechase
 
Race 2:  #5 Warrior's Hero came away an unlucky loser two starts back after engaging in a race-long duel, and then had a tough go of it contesting the pace over a sloppy track going longer last time.  Cutting back in distance, with his speed figures, should make him tough. #6 Broadway Bay lacked early speed but was finishing up well in his debut and retains the leading rider for his second start.  #1 Celebrate We Will gets a strong pedigree rating of 93 for dirt sprints, and starts for a trainer who can win with a first-time starter.
 
Selections:  5-6-1-4
 
 
Race 3:  #5 Daddy's Lil Saint hasn't sprinted on dirt since a game finish to get second behind the talented Henry's Gal back in January.  Didn't take to turf in the interim, and is a danger cutting back in distance after clearly not appreciating taking on more ground last time.  
 
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#2 Sheriffa put up a big win with the aid of an inside-speed-favoring track as a 2yo, but has mostly disappointed since then, and she could not take advantage of a perfect trip last time.  #6 The Lost Tigress earned a competitive TimeformUS Speed Figure of 81 for her maiden win two back and is a dangerous horse for a trainer sporting strong ratings with runners making their third start off the layoff (95) and making the turf-to-dirt move (94 rating).  
 
Selections:  5-2-6-4
 
 
Race 4:  #2 Jane's Heir is a new face to this group and has competitive turf form for a trainer who has already sent out a winner here from limited starters.  Has tactical speed, which can be put to good use in a race that our Pace Projector indicates will favor runners on or near the early lead, and she handled an off track well here on July 27th, should those conditions prevail.  #6 Revealing Moment has to stretch out, but she's turned her form around since switching to turf two starts back, and she has the speed to be a forward factor from the start.  #8 Edie and #9 One Penny Piece finished close together when last seen downstate, but we're not sure they ran any better than the third-place finisher, #4 Tizallheart, that day.  #3 Amulay may be the horse to beat on the main track, although she has been off form recently, and this two-turn 1 1/8 miles will be testing for her.  
 
Selections:  2-6-4-8
 
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Race 5:  #5 Kleptocrat put in a strong late run for 2nd behind a heavily favored drop-down winner in her debut, and earned a competitive speed figure for that effort.  Since then, she had to be scratched after dropping her rider prior to a start on July 4th, and she ran off a bit in the post parade before her start vs. MSW company up here on July 23rd.  She's back down in class for this and figures tough if getting back to an effort like that first one.  #4 Laura Can Disco debuts for Gary Gullo, who has been a bit unlucky up here with eight 2nd- and 3rd-place finishes from 18 starters as opposed to only 1 winner so far, but he's already saddled 2 debut winners this year in maiden claiming company, at odds of 8/1 and 11/1.  
 
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#1 Mary's in Utopia didn't break and wound up on a four-wide chase when finishing far behind both #2 Penella and #3 Keep Right last time, but she has more speed when getting out cleanly, and we would rather have her this time.  
 
Selections:  5-4-1-3
 
 
Race 6:  #9 Hear the Footsteps runs every time and has held his own going longer vs. some tough customers, but we think he's at his best sprinting on grass.  Won three straight between 6 and 7 furlongs early last year before stretching out, and he's run well in both turf sprints so far this year.  
 
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#2 Escapist lost his best chance after failing to break sharply and having to steady behind horses early in the Quick Call.  Has dangerous speed when getting away cleanly, and Pace Projector indicates that he may be in a position to take advantage in this field.  #1 Great Attack is a rock-solid and consistent turf sprinter, and he has enough early speed to avoid being badly compromised.  #4 Mr. Vegas hasn't been this short on turf since winning his career debut up here in impressive fashion way back in 2009.  Has shown that he can still run while facing strong competition since returning this year as a 7yo.  If we're off the turf, which seems a strong possibility, we'll look at #12 Zee Bros, who will be making his first start back from Dubai, and first North American start since getting burned off chasing a blistering pace in the Grade 1 Malibu last December. 
 
Selections: 9-2-1-4
 
 
Race 7:  #4 Isabelle was way up against it in fast-paced Grade 3 try last time, but was convincing in back-to-back wins over NY-breds prior to that, both of which earned 99 TimeformUS Speed Figures, and her big maiden win came over a muddy sealed track.  #2 Superior Sarah often settled for minor awards, but she has a race to get to that makes her a threat. She is the main danger if Isabelle gets hooked up on the pace early.  
 
Selections:  4-2-1-5
 
 
Race 8:  #7 Aesthetique appeared to get in a perfect prep race off the layoff, and then got the wrong ride when being strongly rated for a long way when last seen.  Deserves another chance.  #1 Thatza Wrap was also strongly rated in that June 21st race behind Aesthetique, and she has clearly improved since switched to turf.  If we're off, we'll give #8 Chrysolite one more chance, as she wound up wide while chasing a front-running winner on a fast pace in off-the-turfer earlier in the meet.  
 
Selections:  7-1-8-2
 
 
Race 9:  #2 Tightend Touchdown is a fast and talented turf sprinter, and his ability to run his race from just off the pace may serve him well in this speed-laden field.  
 
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#6 Spring to the Sky has been sharp in posting back-to-back victories leading into this, and he likes this turf course, but he has been at his best on the lead, and he may be in a tougher position this time.  If we're off the turf, we'd be tempted to stick with Tightend Touchdown, who handles the main track well, but it does seem like a good spot for #5 Dads Caps were that to be the case. 
 
Selections:  2-6-3-4
 
 
Race 10:  #7 Two Seventeen is off the layoff, but he's dropping to the lowest level of his career, has run some of the top TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field, and his only two career sprints on dirt have come against much better horses.  #3 Southern Blessing is cut in half by a top trainer and is supposed to be tough in a spot like this, but there appears to be a good chance that he'll catch a wet track again, and he has never run his best in those conditions.  #11 Perfect Disco ran a new top figure of 88 when returned from the layoff with a drop in class, but couldn't go with the fast Sense of Peace and settled for second best.  
 
Selections:  7-3-11-1
 
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