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TimeformUS Analysis for August 13

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Wednesday, August 13

Race 1:  Steeplechase
 
Race 2:  #5 Warrior's Hero came away an unlucky loser two starts back after engaging in a race-long duel, and then had a tough go of it contesting the pace over a sloppy track going longer last time.  Cutting back in distance, with his speed figures, should make him tough. #6 Broadway Bay lacked early speed but was finishing up well in his debut and retains the leading rider for his second start.  #1 Celebrate We Will gets a strong pedigree rating of 93 for dirt sprints, and starts for a trainer who can win with a first-time starter.
 
Selections:  5-6-1-4
 
 
Race 3:  #5 Daddy's Lil Saint hasn't sprinted on dirt since a game finish to get second behind the talented Henry's Gal back in January.  Didn't take to turf in the interim, and is a danger cutting back in distance after clearly not appreciating taking on more ground last time.  
 
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#2 Sheriffa put up a big win with the aid of an inside-speed-favoring track as a 2yo, but has mostly disappointed since then, and she could not take advantage of a perfect trip last time.  #6 The Lost Tigress earned a competitive TimeformUS Speed Figure of 81 for her maiden win two back and is a dangerous horse for a trainer sporting strong ratings with runners making their third start off the layoff (95) and making the turf-to-dirt move (94 rating).  
 
Selections:  5-2-6-4
 
 
Race 4:  #2 Jane's Heir is a new face to this group and has competitive turf form for a trainer who has already sent out a winner here from limited starters.  Has tactical speed, which can be put to good use in a race that our Pace Projector indicates will favor runners on or near the early lead, and she handled an off track well here on July 27th, should those conditions prevail.  #6 Revealing Moment has to stretch out, but she's turned her form around since switching to turf two starts back, and she has the speed to be a forward factor from the start.  #8 Edie and #9 One Penny Piece finished close together when last seen downstate, but we're not sure they ran any better than the third-place finisher, #4 Tizallheart, that day.  #3 Amulay may be the horse to beat on the main track, although she has been off form recently, and this two-turn 1 1/8 miles will be testing for her.  
 
Selections:  2-6-4-8
 
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Race 5:  #5 Kleptocrat put in a strong late run for 2nd behind a heavily favored drop-down winner in her debut, and earned a competitive speed figure for that effort.  Since then, she had to be scratched after dropping her rider prior to a start on July 4th, and she ran off a bit in the post parade before her start vs. MSW company up here on July 23rd.  She's back down in class for this and figures tough if getting back to an effort like that first one.  #4 Laura Can Disco debuts for Gary Gullo, who has been a bit unlucky up here with eight 2nd- and 3rd-place finishes from 18 starters as opposed to only 1 winner so far, but he's already saddled 2 debut winners this year in maiden claiming company, at odds of 8/1 and 11/1.  
 
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#1 Mary's in Utopia didn't break and wound up on a four-wide chase when finishing far behind both #2 Penella and #3 Keep Right last time, but she has more speed when getting out cleanly, and we would rather have her this time.  
 
Selections:  5-4-1-3
 
 
Race 6:  #9 Hear the Footsteps runs every time and has held his own going longer vs. some tough customers, but we think he's at his best sprinting on grass.  Won three straight between 6 and 7 furlongs early last year before stretching out, and he's run well in both turf sprints so far this year.  
 
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#2 Escapist lost his best chance after failing to break sharply and having to steady behind horses early in the Quick Call.  Has dangerous speed when getting away cleanly, and Pace Projector indicates that he may be in a position to take advantage in this field.  #1 Great Attack is a rock-solid and consistent turf sprinter, and he has enough early speed to avoid being badly compromised.  #4 Mr. Vegas hasn't been this short on turf since winning his career debut up here in impressive fashion way back in 2009.  Has shown that he can still run while facing strong competition since returning this year as a 7yo.  If we're off the turf, which seems a strong possibility, we'll look at #12 Zee Bros, who will be making his first start back from Dubai, and first North American start since getting burned off chasing a blistering pace in the Grade 1 Malibu last December. 
 
Selections: 9-2-1-4
 
 
Race 7:  #4 Isabelle was way up against it in fast-paced Grade 3 try last time, but was convincing in back-to-back wins over NY-breds prior to that, both of which earned 99 TimeformUS Speed Figures, and her big maiden win came over a muddy sealed track.  #2 Superior Sarah often settled for minor awards, but she has a race to get to that makes her a threat. She is the main danger if Isabelle gets hooked up on the pace early.  
 
Selections:  4-2-1-5
 
 
Race 8:  #7 Aesthetique appeared to get in a perfect prep race off the layoff, and then got the wrong ride when being strongly rated for a long way when last seen.  Deserves another chance.  #1 Thatza Wrap was also strongly rated in that June 21st race behind Aesthetique, and she has clearly improved since switched to turf.  If we're off, we'll give #8 Chrysolite one more chance, as she wound up wide while chasing a front-running winner on a fast pace in off-the-turfer earlier in the meet.  
 
Selections:  7-1-8-2
 
 
Race 9:  #2 Tightend Touchdown is a fast and talented turf sprinter, and his ability to run his race from just off the pace may serve him well in this speed-laden field.  
 
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#6 Spring to the Sky has been sharp in posting back-to-back victories leading into this, and he likes this turf course, but he has been at his best on the lead, and he may be in a tougher position this time.  If we're off the turf, we'd be tempted to stick with Tightend Touchdown, who handles the main track well, but it does seem like a good spot for #5 Dads Caps were that to be the case. 
 
Selections:  2-6-3-4
 
 
Race 10:  #7 Two Seventeen is off the layoff, but he's dropping to the lowest level of his career, has run some of the top TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field, and his only two career sprints on dirt have come against much better horses.  #3 Southern Blessing is cut in half by a top trainer and is supposed to be tough in a spot like this, but there appears to be a good chance that he'll catch a wet track again, and he has never run his best in those conditions.  #11 Perfect Disco ran a new top figure of 88 when returned from the layoff with a drop in class, but couldn't go with the fast Sense of Peace and settled for second best.  
 
Selections:  7-3-11-1
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for August 11

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for racing at Saratoga on Monday August 11

Race 1:  #6 Wild Finish found a tough group of NY-breds in his last dirt start, and that came on the heels of a pair of tough trips off the layoff.  Forget the turf start last time. His trainer gets strong ratings with runners dropping from allowance to claiming (98) and switching from turf to dirt (92).  
 
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#2 Oldwick plummeted in for an $8k tag two starts back and was defeated at a short price, but he impressed when burying a field at Belmont last time.  #4 Silver Morgan drops off the claim for an owner who looks to win races up here and picks up the leading rider.  Has run TimeformUS Speed Figures in his last three races that suggest he's going to be tough to beat.
 
Selections:  6-2-4-1
 
 
Race 2:  Guesswork involved with field of NY-bred 2yo fillies sprinting on grass, as only one of the seven entered for turf has a prior race, and that horse was beaten over 25 lengths in her main track debut.  #6 Smilingsundae debuts for a trainer who has already saddled three 2yos to win their debuts sprinting on the turf in NY this year, including one here on Friday.  #2 Skinner Box was purchased for $190k after working a furlong in 10.1 at OBS April, and she has pedigree, being by Freud and out of a dam who is a half-sister to a Breeders' Cup Turf winner.  #8 Moondance Joy blitzed a furlong in 9.4 at that same April sale prior to bringing $150k, and her sire is a solid turf influence.  #1 Battle Axe also has pedigree for turf, and her trainer has been sending out live firsters this year.
 
Selections:  6-2-8-1
 
 
Race 3:  #1 Wealth to Me has run a pair of strong races for this trainer recently, one from off the pace and one on the lead.  One of those was a much-the-best win over this distance at Laurel, and he drew a nice inside post from which to use his tactical speed. Both #3 Romancing the Gold and #5 Moe Man were clear-cut winners of their final starts at Belmont before coming up here, and both promptly bombed over wet tracks. Both are contenders here assuming they bounce back to their best.  
 
Selections:  1-6-5-3

 

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Race 4:  #4 Hushhushmushmush was defeated as a clear-cut favorite when dropped down to this level last time, but he was also best in there and unlucky to lose after unwisely engaging in a race-long pace duel.  He's a short price who is going to be tough to beat.  #9 Rontos New York took advantage of the softened up Hushhushmushmush last time, and parlayed a perfect trip and ride into a close runner-up finish.  
 
Selections:  4-9-10-1
 
 
Race 5:  #4 Dan's Gold takes a significant drop in class after facing much tougher last time off a short rest, and he has enough speed to be a forward factor in this field from the start.  #7 Attractive Ride was much the best winning at Monmouth last time after an easy trip.  Has winning experience at Saratoga and fits well with his best race.  #2 Buckeye Heart finally came through with a long overdue win prior to leaving Belmont Park.  Would appreciate some hitting up front as he goes first off the claim for a sharp trainer.  
 
Selections:  4-7-2-1
 
 
Race 6:  Tough way to kick off the late Pick 4, with several unappealing experienced runners and a pair of well-bred first-time starters debuting well below their purchase prices for top connections.  #7 Perfect Danger goes for low-percentage connections, but he is fast early and Pace Projector places him on a clear lead early.  He has faced the best competition and figures to be tighter for his second start off the long layoff.  
 
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#6 Forest Boy kept up close to a drop-down winner here over a sloppy track on July 28th, but he never had enough to overtake that horse and was outfinished late.  He didn't have to love the wet going that day, and is also second off the layoff.
 
Selections:  7-6-3-2
 
 
Race 7:  #5 Ecstatic Miss has made only 1 of her 11 career starts sprinting on turf, but it was the best race she's ever run, by far, and she'll be a big price.  #6 Thetaloveandmine has never tried turf, but she holds good synthetic form, and she can be dangerous if bringing her speed to this surface as she picks up Rosario.  #4 Be My Love is the horse to beat, with the best turf-sprint form to date.  Hasn't been seen since March, but will be tough with a typical effort off the bench.  
 
Selections:  5-6-4-3
 
 
Race 8:  #5 Zinzay held plenty of promise as a 2yo and looked good when upsetting a field as a first-time starter up here last year.  Didn't see the best of her at Keeneland in the spring, but she didn't have the best of trips in there, and she can factor here at a price if coming forward off of the layoff.  #3 Walk Close is the horse to beat as she puts her undefeated record on the line.  Nothing flashy about her, but she's proven tough to get past, and she has shown an affinity for racing in traffic.  #2 Sweet Acclaim is better than the bare record indicates, as she's had plenty of trip trouble since arriving stateside. Think the rider change may do her some good, but she may want shorter distances than this. 
 
Selections:  5-3-2-9
 
Race 9:  #9 Emperor's Ring appeared green and found plenty of trouble throughout the running of his debut at Woodbine last summer.  Defeated as a heavy favorite when returned on dirt this year, he deserves another chance getting back to grass.  #3 Bolt From the Blue cuts back while dropping in class, and he has more of a sprint pedigree, so the change may suit.  #7 Eternal Bull also gets some class relief, and he has dangerous speed, though there is other speed in here. 
 
Selections:  9-3-7-2

 

 

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Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, August 10, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, August 10, 2014

Race 4, 2-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 2:37 p.m.

FLYING TIPAT(bay filly, Tapit—Flying Marlin, by Marlin) is a full-sister to Tapitsfly, who won five stakes on the turf, including the Grade 1 Longines Just a Game, Grade 1 First Lady, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Two of five starters out of Flying Marlin have won, both on the turf. Flying Marlin herself won four races, three on the grass.

Owner: Frank L. Jones Jr.

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Robby Albarado

 

MISS ALWAYS READY (dark bay or brown filly, More Than Ready—Miss Seffens, by Dehere) is a full-sister to More Than Real, who won the Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and was third in the Grade 1 Garden City. Their dam was a sprinter who won stakes at Turfway Park, Oaklawn, Prairie Meadows, Ellis Park, and Keeneland. She was unplaced in her lone turf start. Miss Seffens has produced two winners from four starters, with More Than Ready being her only turf winner.

Owner: Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $400,000 Keeneland April 2-year-old (one furlong in 9 3/5 seconds, video)

 

HAIL CORNELL (bay filly, All American—Cayuga’s Waters, by Langfuhr) is a half-sister to Glorious View, who won the Grade 2 Vagrancy Handicap on the dirt; Cascadilla Falls, who took the Lucy Scribner on the turf; and Highball, third in this year’s Grade 3 American Derby on the grass. Their dam won four races, including an off-the-turf edition of the Pebbles at Belmont.

Owner: Laue Ranch

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

 

TRENSITA (chestnut filly, Curlin—Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway) is the first foal out of her dam, who was third in the Grade 3 Robert G. Dick handicap on the turf and is a half-sister to Batique, a three-time graded stakes winner on the grass. Trensita’s second dam, Serape, was a sprinter who won the Grade 1 Ballerina.

Owner: Helen K. Groves

Trainer: Michael Matz

Jockey: Luis Saez

 

Race 7, 2-year-old fillies, 5 ½ furlongs, dirt, 4:18 p.m.

BLAME DIXIE (dark bay or brown filly, Blame—I’m From Dixie, by Dixieland Band) is the second starter out of his dam, a placed half-sister to four stakes winners: Sweet Vendetta, who took the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan; Half Heaven, who won four stakes at Turfway Park; Love Cove, a two-time stakes winner on the turf against New York-breds; and Doll Baby, who captured a restricted stakes at Finger Lakes. I’m From Dixie’s only starter to date is unplaced in two starts.

Owner: Bridlewood Farm & Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $150,000 Keeneland November weanling; $300,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 2/5 seconds, video)

 

CORALBEACH (bay filly, Tale of the Cat—Coral Genius, by Smart Strike) is a half-sister to Desert Power, a two-time winner of the Group 2 Premio Seleccion de Velocistas in Chile. Their dam, who has produced four winners from four starters, is an unraced half-sister to Cool Coal Man, who won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and was third in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational; and Kathleens Reel, a stakes winner at Hawthorne and Delta Downs.

Owner: Sumaya US Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

 

PUCA (bay filly, Big Brown—Boat’s Ghost, by Silver Ghost) is a half-sister to Finnegans Wake, who has won the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap and finished third in the Grade 1 Secretariat. Their dam, who was second in a stakes for 2-year-old fillies at Prairie Meadows, has produced three winners from as many starters.

Owner: Donegal Racing

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sales history: $90,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

I’LL SHOW ME (bay filly, Bernardini—Pacific Spell, by Langfuhr) is a half-sister to Proud Spell, who annexed the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, Grade 1 Alabama, Grade 2 Delaware Oaks, and Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks en route to being named Champion Three-Year-Old Filly. At 2, Proud Spell was second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Their dam has produced three winners from four starters. I’ll Show Me was the most expensive of 25 yearlings by Bernardini to sell at auction in 2013.

Owner: Baumann Stables & Aaron Sones

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $1.3 million Keeneland September yearling

 

TREASURE (bay filly, Medaglia d’Oro—Proposal, by Mt. Livermore) is a half-sister to four stakes winners. The most accomplished of the group is Inspired, a sprinter who won five stakes on the turf and one on the dirt. The group also includes Elope, winner of a minor stakes at Churchill Downs and runner-up in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Handicap; Imitation, who took the listed Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine as a 2-year-old; and Silver City, winner of the Dixieland and second in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. Their dam was second in the listed Dearly Precious at Aqueduct Racetrack and is a full-sister to Multiple Choice, who posted Grade 3 triumphs in the Sport Page Handicap, Gravesend Handicap, and Jaipur and was third in the Grade 1 Forego.

Owner: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds

Trainer: James Jerkens

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

 

TimeformUS Analysis for August 10

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Sunday, Aug 10

Race 1:  Early Pick 3 kicks off with a potentially loaded race for 2yo NY-bred maidens.  We are usually partial to experienced runners in these races, and #5 Thank You will be making career start #3 in this spot.  Forget about his turf debut. We are expecting good things from the runners involved in that opening race here on July 20th and thought Thank You ran very well that day despite coming up just short.  Of the firsters, #3 Market Conduct is a $100k yearling purchase, by Super Saver, and his dam's first 5 foals were all winners.   #6 Tiz Time to Shine is the first foal from a multiple stakes winning dam.  And #7 Bellamy Way goes for a hot trainer who saddled a 2yo debut winner up here last summer. 
 
Selections:  5-7-6-3
 
 
Race 2:  For the most part, race 2 comes down to the second-time starter #5 Tiger D or the returnee #7 John Bailey.  Tiger D was the lone first-time starter in his open company debut at Churchill and finished very gamely to just miss after having to steady at the break.  He's going to be tough if bringing that race up here against fellow NY-breds.  John Bailey has dangerous speed and improved his figures from start to start as a 2yo on turf.  Eligible to have improved during his time off, he gets a change to a promising young trainer. 
 
Selections:  7-5-4-8
 
 
Race 3:  Competitive group of NY-bred dirt routers lines up to go 9 furlongs, and with the speed starting from the three outside posts, we're anticipating an honestly run race early.  That should play to the advantage of #2 The Brothers Rap, who has been settling for minor awards recently but owns the top Late Pace rating in the field.  
 
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#3 Went the Day Well will garner plenty of attention with that close 4th-place finish in the 2012 Kentucky Derby appearing in his running lines, and he is eligible for better in his second start back from a long layoff, but we're still not sure how good he ever really was. We don't want a short price on him.
 
Selections:  2-1-6-3

 

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Race 4:  #4 Lady of Victory flashed speed and tired in her main track debut; now switches to turf and stretches out for her second career start.  Has enough pedigree to suggest that she was getting a run in first time out to prepare for this.  #2 Flying Tipat is a full sister to Tapitsfly, who was a multiple Grade 1 winner over turf for this trainer a couple of years ago.   #8 Thebeatofthestreet is bred for turf on both sides, and her trainer is adept at winning with 2yo first-time starters on turf, particularly up here.  #7 Miss Always Ready is a full sister to More Than Real, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf for Todd Pletcher a few years ago.  #9 Trensita is the first foal from a dam who was Grade 3 placed on turf.  

Selections:  4-2-8-9
 
 
Race 5:  #5 Duke of Perth finished behind a couple of these when 6th on opening day, but he did not have the best of it that day.  The pace was slow, and Duke of Perth was taken all the way back to last in the early stages before racing on without threat through the stretch.  He can do better than that second off the layoff, and he ran well several times over this distance in Europe.  
 
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#4 Bingo Kitten was similarly compromised when trying to close from last in a paceless race earlier in the meet.  Distance is a bigger question for him.  Bit of a guess with #1 Rankhasprivileges, who has started only once on grass to this point. That was in a Graded Stakes race, and while we think he is better suited to other surfaces, he has improved over dirt recently.  
 
Selections:  5-1-4-3
 
 
Race 6:  With plenty of speed signed on here, including the #2 Visionandaprayer, #3 Ziptronic, and #9 Petey Cramer, we went looking for closers.  While #6 With Exultation may be the most logical horse fitting that bill, he is now almost fully exposed after a good runner-up performance here early in the meet.  We'll use him, but in the interest of looking for a better price, we'll go out of the box a bit with #8 So Scott.  He's a better closing sprinter than anything else, in our opinion, and he ran a couple of races on turf early in his career that suggest he's not out of his element on this surface.  We could also use #12 Special Selection, who likes to make one run from off the pace.  He should revert back to being a bigger price today, and he's outrun his odds more than once in the past.
 
Selections:  8-6-12-3
 
 
Race 7:  #2 Blame Dixie looked good powering through a furlong in 10.2 prior to being purchased for $300k and turned over to Pletcher.  It's becoming futile to play against these Warrior's Reward firsters, and he has another one here with #6 Highly Conditional, who goes for win-early connections.  #9 I'll Show Me is a $1.3 million half-sister to Kentucky Oaks and Alabama winner Proud Spell, and will debut for Graham Motion.  #3 Sophronia is a half to Wine Police, who was a debut winner up here a few years ago before placing in the Grade 1 Hopeful, and her trainer has already saddled a 2yo debut winner at the meet.
 
Selections:  3-2-6-9
 
 
Race 8:  #3 All Cash finally got his long overdue maiden win last time after a perfect trip.  He's always had potential, so perhaps getting that first win will propel him to better things, and he does project to be in a perfect trip here in a race without much pace.  
 
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#8 Kwacha often settles for minor awards, but he ran well at Monmouth last time after being forced to take a wide run out of the turn.  #12 Part is a 3yo dropping in class for the first time after failing to come forward off of a pair of promising efforts earlier in the season.  Has little early speed and drew poorly on the outside.
 
Selections:  3-8-12-9
 
 
Race 9:  #7 Empressive Humor will have to step it up a bit from her debut, but she is eligible to do so, and we liked what we saw from her first time out as she was able to keep a hot firster from Pletcher's barn in range early and then overpower her late.  #4 Take Charge Brandi earned the top TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field for her dead-game runner-up finish vs. the promising Fashion Alert in the Grade 3 Schuylerville here on opening day.  That came on the heels of a highly impressive debut win.  #3 Angela Renee has a big pedigree, and she ran to it when breaking her maiden with a strong TFUS Speed Figure of 93 first time out.  
 
Selections:  7-4-3-5
 
 
Race 10:  #8 Stanford impressed winning first out at Monmouth and figures to be a square price for a Pletcher-trained 2yo off of that effort.  #7 Cinco Charlie may not have much further to go, but he's a forward-moving 2yo who has impressed in each of his three starts to date, and he's already a graded stakes winner.  Could easily be argued that he was best in the Sanford after engaging in a race-long duel.  #3 Mr. Z endured a troubled trip in the Sanford and emerged an unlucky loser, though he didn't necessarily have it any worse than Cinco Charlie did, all things considered, and he may be overbet off of his noticeable difficulties.
 
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Selections:  8-7-3-10
 
 
Race 11:  #11 Grand Rapport has gotten back into form on turf recently, and he's found the right spot with a fast pace projected if he draws in.  #3 Nineinthenine worked a good trip toward the inside and finished gamely up here early in the meet in what was an encouraging performance first back from a long layoff.  Projects for a nice inside ground-saving trip away from that fast pace.  #2 Tapitdar is also second off the layoff after running well first time back.  He's never run his best race at Saratoga, but he has mostly faced better than this up here.
 

Selections:  11-3-2-7

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