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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for August 1

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Friday, Aug 1
Race 1:  #7 The Mooche is third back from the layoff today and switching to grass for a trainer who has gone 4-for-7 with maidens making this surface switch since starting out with his own string last year.  Meets the right kind of field and distance isn't supposed to pose a problem for him.  #8 Royal Posse ran deceptively well a couple of times over a route of ground at Aqueduct earlier this year and figures to appreciate the class relief he gets here.  #4 Invasion Point took a little money but failed to offer much after showing brief speed in his debut; figures to be on the front, but that pedigree rating of 59 for this distance on dirt has to be a concern.
Selections:  7-8-4-6
Race 2:  #3 Point to the Wild has posted a solid record sprinting over turf and has picked up her game since being taken by this high-percentage barn.  Each of her four turf sprints for these connections (she won three of those) has earned her TFUS Speed Figures of 90+, which is rarefied air in this field on grass.  #4 Justalittleloopy is a huge question mark in here based on her first two starts back from the layoff, but she may be set for better now, and getting to turf may suit her based on her prior synthetic form.  #6 Ave's Halo will likely need to improve a bit if Point to the Wild brings her best, but she is eligible to do so off the claim by a dangerous trainer.
Selections:  3-4-6-7
Race 3:  Super-interesting maiden route features the Saratoga debut of Rachel Alexandra's little sister, #4 Samantha Nicole.  She ran well to be second-best after a very awkward break in her debut and can be expected to go forward here, but is a cinch to be overbet.
#3 Dragonberry was defeated as a heavy favorite first time out, but actually ran well that day while appearing to be a horse who wanted more ground.  Stretches out here, and will be very tough to beat if improving upon the 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned first time out.  #7 Twenty in One was rated back away from a moderate pace when on fast dirt for the first time last out. She finished well in there behind a repeat winner.  
Selections: 3-7-4-1
Race 4:  We always thought highly of #2 North Slope as a turf horse, but he disappointed there and then surprised running a huge race when switched to dirt last time.  He was after a fast pace all the way that day, and wound up in a long duel with the eventual runner-up, Escapefromreality, before they were both closed down by a perfect-trip winner. They may not be looking to send him again as he takes on more distance, but there is not much confirmed speed in this race.  
#3 Praetereo has fast races to get back to, but he seemed to really improve once cut back in distance off the claim, and he has never been that effective over this trip.  #4 Ever Rider gets some much needed class relief here and has the kind of tactical speed to get the right trip.
Selections:  2-4-3-1
Race 5:  #10 Solly's Mischief was rated back to last and then had no chance to catch an impressive winner in his last start, but finished gamely to get up for 2nd in there, and he has faced better than this right along since breaking his maiden at the end of last year. #11 Brendan G is the horse to beat for a trainer who scores a strong 96 rating moving horses from turf to dirt, but he has some hang in him, and we're not taking it as a good sign that he drops below the level of the claim so quickly.  #7 Herd Mentality has run some competitive figures for Asmussen and has some speed.  
Selections:  10-11-7-1
Race 6:  #7 How is clearly the horse to beat on the drop into restricted claiming company after rating and giving way in a tough spot on turf last time.  Dirt form is solid, and Pace Projector indicates that he will be up close in a race that favors runners on or near the early lead.  
We'll lean on him in the mid-card multis and make #2 Daddy Loves Gold our backup, as he figures to appreciate the class relief, as well, and he was wide all the way in his lone dirt start, which came over an inside-speed-favoring track.
Selections:  7-2-4-1
Race 7:  Pace Projector for this race favors runners on or near the early lead, and expects the horse to beat, #8 Shore Runner, to be in position up there on the outside.  He has come away narrowly second-best in each of his two recent turf starts, but earned a TimeformUS Speed Figure of 99 for that last one, and drops back down in class.  #12 Pirate's Pleasure arrives with recent excuses and is entered right back at the level of the claim by a sharp trainer.  For a price, include #2 Greeley Pack, who will start in a claiming race on the turf for the first time here. He was a strong winner over this track and trip last summer.
Selections:  8-12-2-7
Race 8:  #11 Arch Avenger made the transition to turf that his pedigree suggested he would last time (his dam is a sister to Stroll, a Grade 1 winner on grass), digging in gamely after a wide trip to just miss.  Claimed by a going concern, and will be tough with a similar effort.  
#6 Aripeka stepped it up on turf when last seen, to be second-best behind the talented Middleburg; layoff is the concern. #8 Peb the Champ put in an inexplicably poor performance at Pimlico two back, but his two turf starts surrounding that one are solid, and he was much the best last time, albeit with a perfect trip.
Selections:  11-6-8-9
Race 9:  #5 Munnings Sister holds dangerous speed and a pedigree rating of 93 for turf sprints, which suggests that she may be a handful as she switches to grass for the first time here.  #10 Madam Giry has been at her best over this course in the past, and appeared to get back to one of her good races with blinkers added last time.  #3 Free as a Bird is very nearly 5-for-5 since concentrating on turf sprints this year, though she has benefited from some easy trips.  Still, she is the horse to beat here. 
Selections:  5-10-3-6
Race 10:  Hard to believe that #3 All Cash remains a maiden a year after arriving on the scene here last summer, considering some of the races he ran, but here he is, in for $40k and carrying an 0-for-11 record.  We'll give him one more chance back over this turf course, as he projects to be on a clear early lead and is supposed to be tough with that scenario.  #9 All My Trails had little chance to impact in a race that held together up front last time, and figures to benefit from this class drop.  #7 Dividend was picked up by trainer John Terranova last time, and he gets a 99 rating with horses making their first start out of his barn, from a limited sample.
Selections:  3-9-7-6

TimeformUS Analysis Thursday July 31

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Thursday July 31st.
Race 1:  Steeplechase
Race 2:  Pick 5 kicks off here, and #4 None Like Nolan figures to be solidly favored.  He came back to dirt at Monmouth last time and put in a good enough effort to be second best, and the 90 TFUS Speed Figure he earned there is tops in the field.  We aren't wildly against him, but he doesn't have much speed. Could be vulnerable to a horse like #2 Warrior's Hero, who stretches out after getting the best of a pace duel going shorter last time.  Distance is a question for him, but he could wind up in early control here and be dangerous.  We are also interested in #1 Updraft, who raced greenly behind graded-stakes bound The Big Beast in his debut and will now stretch out for his second start. Dam was a Breeders' Cup Distaff winner, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin excels with second-time starters (100 rating) and with horses going from sprint to route (99).  
Selections:  2-4-1-3
Race 3:  #2 Henry's Gal cut a quick pace going longer in her turf debut last time, and figures to benefit from this turn-back to 5.5-furlongs.  She's had gate trouble more than once in the past, which she won't be able to afford today, but she's fast and talented, and she handled turf well last time.  
#4 Image of Noon will appreciate any pace that Henry's Gal brings to the table, and she has returned in good form this year.  #8 Hot Squeeze holds an entry into an overnight stakes race here on Wednesday, but would obviously be a big player were she to await this spot.  #7 Neck of the Moon and #9 White Sangria are also contenders in what has come up a solid race.
Selections:  2-4-8-7
Race 4:  #6 Big Town is dropping off the claim, which may not be the best sign in the world, but he has been in very good form recently in Kentucky, where he has been facing tougher (race ratings have consistently been higher for those races than the 100 rating for today's race) while putting his fine early speed to good use.  #4 North Ocean seemed to get back to one of his better races last time, and he earned the top last speed figure in the field by a clear margin for that front-running score, but he was able to get away unchallenged in there, and that may not be the case today.  Will be making first start off the claim by Pletcher/Repole here, so wouldn't expect him to be a fair price.  #5 Crushing is making his third start back from a long layoff, and may be the main beneficiary if a contested pace develops.  He's managed to win only at Parx so far, but he's run OK in NY in the past, and faced a runaway winner last time. 
Selections:  6-5-4-1
Race 5:  Wide-open turf sprint for maiden claimers appears to be a good spot for returnee #5 Stay in Front and first-time starter #10 Boca Babe.  Stay in Front ran very well in her only start, which came over this track last summer, and returns for a $40k tag with a trainer change (she raced for the same owners in that debut run).  Of the others, we'll use a little of #3 Golden Maria, as she has been involved in a pair of very fast paces this year and may be dangerous if able to get away a little easier in this spot.  
Selections:  5-10-3-6
Race 6:  Tough way to close out the sequence, with a field full of NY-bred first time starting 2yos awaiting.  #1 Scorecard Harry wins the pedigree contest, as his dam was a Grade 2 winner and has already dropped three stakes winners, including Lovely Lil, who won the Grade 2 Go for Wand and made just shy of $300k.  
#3 Persuasive Devil has valuable experience and showed enough in her debut to be considered.  Pletcher has a firster in #5 Bullheaded Boy, who was just purchased for $115k in June after working a quarter in :21.3.   #7 Saratoga Heater brought $100k after working a furlong in :10.2 and has continued to breeze well up here, and #8 Watergate has been working well for George Weaver.  
Selections:  1-3-5-8
Race 7:  Full gate of hard-hitting older turf horses going 9 furlongs here, and the ML favorite, #3 Grand Rapport, is the horse to beat.  He's one of the coolest horses around, having returned to competitive form after a layoff of over a year, and he ran very well over 1 1/2 miles here less than a week ago.  We'll use him, but we want to play #7 Zane on top. Zane has endured some tough luck in NY recently, with his rider overcommitting to the inside all the way in each of his last two starts.  He gets a rider change today to Joe Rocco, Jr., who was aboard for that convincing win at Gulfstream back in March.  #8 Sayler's Creek is one length away from winning six straight turf routes, but he's been getting one perfect trip after another in those races and was defeated the one time he didn't have all the best of it.  Trainer Chris Englehart saddles a pair of contenders in #4 Majestic Raffy and #5 Madris.  We prefer the former, as he had little chance to impact from off of a walking pace here opening day.
Selections:  7-3-4-5
Race 8:  One-mile turf race goes through Todd Pletcher's #6 Storm, undefeated on grass and out of state-bred conditions.  He has a versatile running style and plenty of upside, and he could have found a much tougher field than this one, all things considered.  #5 Shaun's Blessing could be a big danger to the favorite as he makes just his third lifetime start.  He's raced a bit greenly so far, but has positional speed and may have found the nine furlongs a touch too far last time.  #9 Los Borrachos has transferred well to grass for Bill Mott, and #4 Mister Special made a promising debut in Chicago last summer before going to the sidelines for top connections.  
Selections:  5-6-9-4
Race 9:  $100k Evan Shipman for NY-breds is perhaps set to feature a contested pace between the two favorites, #6 Escapefromreality and #8 Big Business.  
Both enter here off of big performances and are the right two horses, assuming they don't battle each other into defeat.  We prefer Escapefromreality, who was first back from the layoff when engaged in a hard duel last time and did well to get the best of it before getting nailed on the line.  He figures tighter for this one, has shown the ability to rate, if necessary, and owns a win over this track and trip.  Big Business has been holding strong form over a long series of races since getting on dirt, but he has been at his best around one turn downstate and may be severely tested by this trip.  If those two hurt each other early, #7 Awesome Vision seems likeliest to pick up the pieces.
Selections:  6-8-7-4
Race 10:  #3 Bold Challenger hasn't been seen in 180 days, but he is unlikely to find a much better spot than this one to make his return.  He's kept the best company and run the fastest races, and he has the kind of speed that should allow him to avoid being compromised by pace or trip.  Assuming he's not ready, I guess #2 Anmaat could be given another chance, as he received an ill-advised unaggressive ride and then got wired by Cashmere Cat last time.  #11 Grandpa Len comes back to grass after running well in each of his two starts off of a long break.  Think he's better on dirt, but he certainly fits here.
Selections:  3-2-11-8 

TimeformUS Analysis for July 30

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Wednesday, July 30
Race 1:  Steeplechase
Race 2:  Maiden claimer for NY-bred fillies over 9 furlongs shapes up to be a battle of attrition, as none of the entrants has ever been this far, and competitive form is hard to come by.  We'll try #4 Confessa on top.  She has never run on dirt, but drops in class for a talented young trainer, and her unraced dam is a half-sister to a multiple graded stakes winner on dirt.  #2 Kelly's Prize also drops, and she flashed some speed when tried on dirt back in May.  She may be the horse to beat for a trainer who gets 100 rating (from a limited sample) with horses making this class drop.
Selections:  4-2-5-1
Race 3:  Just six NY-bred fillies for this sprint, but three of them are multiple stakes winners.  #6 Willet is the horse to beat as she makes her second start back after giving game chase to the speedy (and loose) La Verdad last time.  She's perfectly drawn outside, and while she has come up short more often than not over this track, she has been victimized by tough trips more than once.  #4 Galiana is the main danger, especially if showing up with an effort similar to her last, where she flat overpowered a good horse in Winning Image.  #2 Risky Rachel has a race in her that would be plenty good enough, but we haven't seen one of those from her recently.  
Selections:  6-4-2-3
Race 4:  #3 Rock Me Mama drops in class while also getting a turn-back in distance here. Both figure to help, and the fact that her last two races have earned her TimeformUS Speed Figures that are faster than anything her competitors have ever run doesn't hurt. Pace Projector indicates that the race shape will favor runners on or near the early lead and places Rock Me Mama right up with the pace.  
#4 Da Wildcat Girl parlayed a perfect trip into a game score vs. restricted claimers downstate, and then finished gamely again at Delaware last time.  Pace scenario doesn't figure to flatter her closing style.  #2 Chase My Tail has run well in all three dirt starts since being switched to this barn, but faces tougher here in the form of the top two.  #5 Dash to the Flash has dangerous speed as she cuts back in distance off the claim, and she has won each of her last three starts over fast dirt.  
Selections:  3-4-2-5
Race 5:  Full field of 2yo NY-bred maiden fillies sprints 5 furlongs on the dirt. It may pay to check the scratches, as #9 Zo Zo was bet hard and then was caught up in some traffic before giving way in the stretch of her debut.  She returns with blinkers-on for a trainer who has been deadly with second-time-starting maidens at Saratoga in the past. Should she not get in, the other entrant with experience, #3 Yourcreditisgood, may be tough. She was caught up in a wide trip chasing a front-running winner in her debut.  Of the firsters, #1 Myfourchix is by precocious sire Henny Hughes, and her trainer, Rick Schosberg, was once an ace with first-time starters.  #4 Perfect Freud is out of the mare Platinum Perfect, who won 7 of 10 career starts over fast dirt and made over $220k in her career.
Selections:  9-3-1-4
Race 6:  Interesting $25k claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs.  #3 My Tee Time shows up from Suffolk Downs with a pair of fast races in tow off the claim.  If she runs one of those races in this spot, she will find herself in the winner's circle again. Assuming she is unable to put up a performance like that at Saratoga, #8 Kelwynne has faced better out of town in the form of 14-time winner Conga Bella and the speedy Here's Zealicious (see Race 3).  #1 Mama Zee has some fast races of her own, and she is dropping out of a stakes try at Monmouth.  #5 My Donna Jean has picked up her game since being claimed by Eddie Barker and can turn things around if My Tee Time and Mama Zee go after each other early. She was compromised by racing behind a moderate pace three back, and had little chance behind a blowout winner last time.  
Selections:  8-3-1-5
Race 7:  #4 Ear D' Rhythm found a couple of tough spots upon her return from an extended layoff. But she was rallying through the stretch last time before being wiped out by a spill, and she found the right kind of field here on the drop.  The trip didn't work out for #8 Wine Burglar last time. She took an inside tracking trip as the longshot winner was allowed to rate on an easy lead, and she was ultimately trapped behind horses through the stretch with nowhere to run.  She fits very well here. #7 Sundae School looks like the third horse to use.
Selections:  4-8-7-6
Race 8:  #11 Love You Loads made a promising debut at Gulfstream back at the beginning of the year, and appeared to break through when burying a pair of next-out winners last out.  
#3 Momentary Magic has been all potential to this point and won't get many more chances to deliver, but she lost all chance at the start when returned from the layoff and then endured a tough four-wide trip chasing a wire-to-wire winner last time.  #6 La Madrina is the ML favorite, but we'll try to beat her as she has been with the flow in both starts so far, closing into a fast duel first time out and keeping close to a walking pace last time.  
Selections:  11-3-6-4
Race 9:  Coronation Cup three-year-old fillies sprinting on turf may have a different look come post time, as several of these hold entries to other races, and four in the main body have never raced on grass and may be looking for this race to come off.  As of this writing, a fast pace is projected, which figures to help out top pick #7 Stars Above Me. She will be first-time Lasix for her stateside debut, and she earned positive marks from Timeform overseas, their analysts expecting her to appreciate shorter trips and quicker paces.  
Selections:  7-5-1-4
Race 10:  #11 Candir gets positive rider and trainer changes for the switch to turf, and he is expected to step forward on this surface as his half-brother, Al Khali, is a multiple graded stakes winner on grass with over $1 million in the bank. Firster #2 All the Way is a half-brother to a three-time winner on grass, and his dam is a sister to Academy Award, Good Mood and Statuette, all graded stakes winners on grass.  #5 Same As is the first foal from Lucky Copy, who was a stakes winner on grass while racing for this trainer a few years ago. 
Selections: 11-2-5-4

TimeformUS Analysis Monday July 28

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis For Monday July 28

Race 1:  We'll see what happens with the grass races Monday, as we're off the turf Sunday and there is a sketchy forecast for the immediate future.  With that in mind, we will cover a couple of bases at the same time in the opener by going to #2 Point Hope, who ran well enough going a longer route on turf last time while contesting a pace that
came apart late. He has plenty of dirt in his pedigree.  #7 Are We Not Men has run well in all three turf starts, and done so despite a couple of very tough trips.  He starts for a dangerous trainer and will appreciate the slight class drop.
Selections:  2-7-5-4
Race 2:  First-time starters scheduled to sprint 5.5 furlongs on grass. As a starting point,
#3 Coastal Zip is a City Zip and a half-brother to three turf winners.  #4 Banana Thief is bred long but debuts short with a fast recent gate work showing.  #7 Amazing Anne has several winning siblings and is from a female family full of versatile runners, so surface may not be much of an issue for him.  If we're off the grass, MTO #10 Good Luck Gus made a promising debut and would be very hard to beat.
Selections:  10-3-4-7
Race 3:  Seems like a good spot for #5 Southern Blessing to get back on track, assuming he catches fast dirt, which would be the first time he's had that footing while sprinting vs. non-graded stakes company since his winning debut.  #6 Indian Nobility should also benefit from the class relief, and he ran a couple of competitive figures last summer before coming up here and finding some tougher spots.  #2 Mr. O'Leary ran a trio of TFUS Speed Figures earlier in the year that make him something of a layover in here, and Pace Projector indicates that he'll be at an early advantage in this race, but he's a very short price on the ML, and just isn't that good.
Selections:  5-6-2-1
Race 4:   #1 Bold Runner gets a major upgrade in rider, which is unlikely to go unnoticed in here, but he was burned off by very fast paces in each of his turf starts downstate and may be quite a bit better than he looks.  #11 Delta Warrior caught traffic at a crucial point when closing into a fast pace last time out, and continued on with a good finish to get second once finally clear.  Can be given another chance. #10 Secret Ops has excuses for both of his dirt races (something to keep in mind should we be off the turf), and he had runoff speed in his turf debut before trouble at the start last time. 
Race 5:  #5 Citizen Wells has scratched a couple times downstate recently, and now shows up for a $20k tag, which isn't necessarily the greatest sign in the world for him. He likes the distance and likes this track. His trainer is a going concern at Saratoga, but we will tread lightly.  For the purposes of this Pick 3 sequence, we will also cover #1 Village Warrior and #2 Best Play, as they figure to have no issues with the trip.
Selections:  5-1-3-4



Race 6:  #3 Forest Boy figures dangerous as the fastest horse on our speed figures (he's earned TFUS Speed Figures of 98 and 100 sprinting in California), and the combination of class drop/trainer change won't hurt.  #5 Pulpit's Legacy is a bit of a wildcard as he returns from a long layoff after losing all chance at the start of loaded debut race here last summer.  #2 Pecorino figures over-bet as the Pletcher class dropper in the field, but he hasn't proven to be that good after catching a couple of tough fields here as a 2yo.
Selections:  3-5-2-6
Race 7:  #7 Father Johns Pride kicked on gamely in a good field when sprinting on the turf for the first time last month; will be tough with a similar effort in here.  #12 Casa Creek was rated into submission behind a front-running winner on turf last time, and that came on the heels of a much-the-best win after dueling on synthetic.  Has other speed to deal with, but he's drawn outside.  If we're off the turf, #5 Spartiatis is at his best playing that game, which he has only gotten to do once.
Selections:  7-12-6-1
Race 8:  Plenty of speed signed on to this strong edition of the Grade 2 Honorable Miss, including the horse to beat, #1 La Verdad.  She's very quick early and has posted a couple of 120+ TFUS Speed Figures recently, which make her the clear horse to beat. She also figures to be under pressure from speedy rivals like #3 R Free Roll and, perhaps, #4 Red Velvet.  #7 My Wandy's Girl defeated La Verdad on the square in the Barbara Fritchie over 7 furlongs back in February, and she took a tough beat after doing all of the heavy lifting in the Grade 2 Ruffian last time.  Six furlongs could make the difference, but she will be tough to hold off.  #2 Speedinthruthecity is 5-for-7 as a dirt
sprinter in her career, and also figures to benefit if a contested pace develops.
Selections:  7-2-1-5
Race 9:  #9 Romancing the Gold was embroiled in a fast pace duel when defeated by the closing #6 Mr. Espresso and #8 Bedouin Now in his first start off the Jacobson claim, and he got back to a good race last time.  Won over this distance here last summer, and that came over a wet track.  #3 Zoebear and #5 Rap d'Oro seem the most dangerous rivals, but distance is more of a concern for them.
Selections:  9-5-3-8