NYRA

The New York Racing Association


LIVE RACING RETURNS TO BELMONT PARK ON FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 5. FIRST POST IS 1:05 PM.

Print this Page Bookmark and Share

Blog

TimeformUS Race Analysis

 

 

resize1-200 greatdeals resize3-200

 

 

TimeformUS Analysis for Aug 9

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Saturday, Aug 9

Race 1:  Tough opener as all seven entrants have a typical effort in a similar speed figure range. With Pace Projector favoring runners on or near the early lead, we will cast our lot with #2 Island Candy.  She has flashed sharp speed more than once in the past, and we like the turf-to-dirt move for this barn (80 trainer rating), as well as the cut-back in distance.  

8_9_r1

#4 Wraith is the horse to beat on the heels of what feels more and more like an unlucky loss last time at this level.  At the very least, she ran a winning race that day behind a very live winner. #1 Gem City Gal is dropping and is fast enough to win; just needs to work out the right trip from the rail.

Selections:  2-4-1-6
 
 
Race 2:  Difficult maiden claimer features a pair of drop-downs on the outside who figure to take the bulk of the play: #7 Madd Exchange for Pletcher, and #8 Hi Speed Chase, who has plenty of speed and gets a trainer change for this.  We get their appeal and understand why they are the two to beat in here,  but we will try to get a little better price with the other class-dropper, #5 Ireland's Eye.  He too has speed, and he gets a switch from turf to dirt for a trainer who gets a perfect 100 rating with that move.  
 
8_9_R2
 
Selections:  5-8-7-2
 
 
Race 3:  #9 Jonrah did well to get 3rd last time after rating back and moving around a stopper in a race that was dominated up front.  Has consistently run races that are competitive with these horses, and should have at least an honest pace in front of him.  #5 Storm is the horse to beat as he looks to keep his undefeated turf record intact.  Has displayed admirable versatility since coming back to his preferred surface for his last two starts.  #3 Adirondack Dancer is capable of a race that would make him quite tough in here, and he has the tactical speed to pull any kind of trip.  #10 Make a Decision was a very unlucky loser in a good field last time and will be tough with a similar effort, but he took the worst of the post position draw.  
 
Selections:  9-5-3-10
 
 
Race 4:  #2 Two Weeks Off was a $320k yearling buy, and he has a solid line up of works showing for Pletcher, who has already won with five 2yos at this meet.  #3 Requite is by hot new sire Warrior's Reward and he sports a series of 5-furlong works for a dangerous trainer.  #6 Call Daddy worked a quick 10.1 at OBS April before bringing $175k and also appears to be working well for a trainer who does excellent work, though he hasn't debuted many 2yos over the years. #4 Da Jenius has a big pedigree and is eligible to be a runner.
 
Selections:  2-3-6-4
 
bottom
 
 
Race 5:  #1A Be Bullish is the clear horse to beat in this $20k claimer restricted to NY-breds and is a likely winner with one of his better efforts, and since he's a 9yo, we won't be too negative about the big class drop.  Barn has struggled mightily since racing shifted upstate, however, and we cannot fully trust him at a short price.  As an alternative, we'll hope that #2 Quiet Power can get back to the form he was holding last year off the claim by this very sharp owner.  He's second off the long layoff here while dropping in class, though he'll clearly have to come way forward from that last one.  We could also include #7 Pretension as he comes back to his preferred surface after a pair of even efforts over turf.
 
8_9_R5
 
Selections:  2-1/1A-7-8
 
 
Race 6:  #8 Zippity City is a City Zip from a dam who is a half-sister to the Grade 3 turf winner Tasha's Miracle, and he shows up with some good looking works for a dangerous trainer.  #10 Royal Squeeze has plenty of pedigree for trainer Chad Brown, who tends to have his 2yo first-time starters ready to go long on grass, especially up here.  #9 King of New York is a half to Waterway Run, a recent Grade 3 winner on grass in NY.  Bill Mott has a pair of very well-bred first-time starters down inside in #2 Tariff and #3 Dubai Sky, though he isn't known to push his runners for early success.
 
Selections:  8-10-9-3
 
 
Race 7:  #1 Sioux will have to be ready off the layoff, but he's eligible to improve as a 3yo, and we liked what we saw from him toward the end of last year.  Lost all chance with a bad stumble at the break behind the talented Samraat when last seen, but defeated a good field that included today's ML favorite, #4 Groupthink, on the square prior to that.  Groupthink is the horse to beat, but we've said that before and he is beginning to pile up the short-priced losses.  #7 Gran the Man impressed in front-running score over maidens downstate, and Pace Projector indicates that he may be at an early advantage once again.
 
Selections:  1-4-7-5
 
 
Race 8:  Guaranteed Late Pick 4 kicks off with a clear horse to beat in #1 Point Roll.  He disappointed greatly as a solid favorite when last seen, but his grass race of May 21 would be too much for this field. He has a good post inside, and with Pace Projector indicating that a fast pace is on tap for this race, he may fall into a perfect ground-saving trip.  If he bombs again, it becomes wide open, but we'd back up with only #4 Archer Hill and #8 Birchwood Road.
 
Selections:  1-4-8-10
 
 
Race 9:  Both #2 Kiss Me Lola and #10 Ballerina Belle were compromised on opening day behind an average and uncompetitive pace, and neither could reach the front-running winner late.  A fast pace is projected for this race, which will play more to their favor, especially Ballerina Belle's, as she got going too late over this shorter sprint distance last time before blowing by after the wire.  
 
8_9_R9
 
#5 Jitney can also take advantage if things start coming apart late, and she'll offer value in this spot.
 
Selections:  10-2-5-1
 
 
Race 10:  Short but solid field set to line up in Wise Dan's absence, with #1 Silver Max the horse to beat. Ultra-consistent speedster can take charge from his inside post, and he has proven difficult to close down when allowed to control things early.  #2 Seek Again and #3 Jack Milton are both capable with their best but will have to hope that #5 Sayaad takes the race to Silver Max early, which is not out of the question.
Selections:  1-5-3-2
 
 
Race 11:  New face #7 Trophee has a big pedigree and will get first-time Lasix as she ships in to race out of Christophe Clement's barn for the first time.  Of the others, #3 Coronette and #6 Forensic have run the best races to date.  #5 Easton Arch is eligible to come forward a bit after getting a little break, and we would prefer to include her, though she is cross-entered to a race at Monmouth should Shug decide not to run two in this spot.
 
Selections:  7-5-3-6
 
Screen_Shot_2014-08-05_at_10.01.16_PM
 

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, August 9, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, August 9, 2014

Race 4, All 2-year-olds, 5 ½ furlongs, dirt, 2:37 p.m.

TWO WEEKS OFF (dark bay or brown colt, Harlan’s Holiday—Havenlass, by Elusive Quality) is the second foal out of his dam, an unraced half-sister to Royal Haven, a sprinter who won four graded stakes (Grade 2 General George Handicap, Grade 2 Fall Highweight Handicap, Grade 2 A Phenomenon, Grade 3 Gravesend Handicap); and Belterra, who won the Grade 2 Golden Rod and was third in the Grade 1 Ashland. Havenlass’ only other starter, Mare and Cher, won a maiden claiming race in May at Belmont Park.

Owner: Starlight Racing

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $170,000 Keeneland November weanling; $320,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling

 

DA JENIUS (bay colt, Malibu Moon—Madcap Escapade, by Hennessy) is a half-brother to Mi Sueno, a daughter of Pulpit who in her brief career won the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante and Grade 3 Sorrento. Both Da Jenius and Mi Sueno are by sons of A.P. Indy. Da Jenius’ dam was primarily a sprinter, but she did win the Grade 1 Ashland and was third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks over a route of ground. She also won the Grade 2 Forward Gal, Grade 2 Shirley Jones Handicap, and Grade 3 Madison. Madcap Escapade is a half-sister to Grade 1 Ballerina winner Dubai Escapade.

Owner: Southern Equine Stable

Trainer: Eric Guillot

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

Sales history: $350,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

FIRST DOWN (bay colt, Street Sense—Storm Lily, by Storm Cat) is a half-brother to Gold City, who was second in a listed stakes in England as a juvenile. Their dam was unplaced in two starts, while their second dam, Crimplene, won three Group 1 races: the Irish 1,000 Guineas, Coronation, and Nassau.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

 

PROVEN COMMODITY (dark bay or brown colt, Bernardini—Sahara Gold, by Seeking the Gold) is a half-brother to Better Lucky, who has won the Grade 1 Matriarch and Grade 1 First Lady on the grass; and Sahara Heat, who took the Grade 3 Marine over the all-weather at Woodbine. Sahara Gold herself won the Grade 2 Beaumont. Proven Commodity’s second dam is Desert Stormer, who posted an upset win over males in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup sprint.

Owner: Darley Stable

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey:  Rajiv Maragh

Sales history:

 

DADA MAINO (bay colt, Super Saver—Piazza Grande, by Hennessy) is out an unraced half-sister to Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner and Grade 1 Belmont Stakes runner-up Paynter; Tiz West, who won the Grade 3 Cinema Handicap on the grass; and Tizakitty, who took the listed Kalookan Queen Handicap at Santa Anita. Piazza Grande has produced one winner from four starters.

Owner: Sumaya US Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

 

Race 6, All 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 3:58 p.m.

DUBAI SKY (bay colt, Candy Ride—House of Danzing, by Chester House) is a full-brother to Twirling Candy, who won the Grade 1 Malibu and Grade 2 Strub on the dirt, the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby on the turf, and the Grade 2 Californian on a synthetic surface. Dubai Sky also is a half-brother to Ethnic Division, who last year won the second division of the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby. Twirling Candy and Ethnic Division are the only two starters out of their dam, who had a runner-up finish in two starts.

Owner: Besilu Stables

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Joel Rosario

 

FOWLER AVENUE (gray/roan colt, Zensational—Steph’s Tee, by Lil E. Tee) is a half-brother to Tee Game, who won a restricted stakes over the all-weather at Woodbine. Their dam, a three-time winner on the dirt who is a full-sister to Indiana Downs stakes winner Tee to Green, has produced four winners from five starters, with Tee Game being her only winner on the grass.

Owner: MeB Racing Stables LLC & Brooklyn Boyz Stables

Trainer: Dominick Schettino

Jockey: Corey Lanerie

Sales history: $95,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

SUMMER DANCER (gray/roan colt, Pulpit—Summer Wind Dancer, by Siberian Summer) is out of a mare who won the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap and Grade 3 Hawthorne Handicap and was third in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet. Summer Wind Dancer’s progeny include Bahama Bound, who placed in four stakes, including the Grade 2 Top Flight Handicap. Four of six starters out of Summer Wind Dancer have won, including two on the turf.

Owner: Z R J Stables

Trainer: David Cannizzo

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Sales history: $90,000 Keeneland January yearling

 

ROYAL SQUEEZE (chestnut colt, Wildcat Heir—Mop Squeezer, by Roanoke) is a half-brother to Callmethesqueeze, who won two stakes on the turf and one on the dirt at Calder; and Squeezer’s Palace, who took a restricted stakes on the dirt at River Downs. Their dam won three stakes on the dirt at Calder and has produced six winners from seven starters, including three on the turf.

Owner: James Covello, Thomas Coleman & Doheny Racing Stable

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $310,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, video)

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

 

 

TimeformUS Analysis for August 8

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Friday, August 8
 
Race 1:  Wasn't much separating #7 Heir to Dare and #1 Pure Vida Zen when they met here on July 24th, but Heir to Dare had the better post and got the jump to prevail.  She gets the best of the draw once again, so we'll see if it makes the difference.  
 
8_8_R1
 
#6 Bobby Jo faced much tougher in her first two starts of the year, but disappointed when properly spotted last time.  New trainer gets a perfect 100 rating off the claim.
 
Selections:  7-6-1-2
 
 
Race 2:  #1A Lamontagne has big speed, which she did not use to best effect when last seen.  Faces some interesting first-time starters here, but can be hard on them if allowed to roll this time.  #7 Path Dependent is a half to a four-time winner in France, and his dam was group-placed over there.  #2 Hillbilly Style brought $250k at auction and is out of a dam who was a multiple graded stakes winner on turf.  Graham Motion sends two in #4 Easy Comparison and #5 Potthast, and while neither of them sports much pedigree, their trainer is going well right now and tends to do well with 2yo maidens on the grass (85 rating). 
 
Selections:  1A-7-1-4
 
 
Race 3:  #2 Confrontation won twice over this track last summer and came through with perhaps his best performance last time when gunning down a solid field through the stretch.  
 
r3
#1A Cherokee Artist defeated a strong group in a Monmouth overnight stakes race last time and performs well anywhere from six to nine furlongs.  #5 Politicallycorrect has been off form recently, but he has some fast races to get to and is at his best over this trip.  He needs pace to be most effective, but he may not get much of it here. 
 
Selections:  2-1/1A-5-3
 
 
Race 4:  Filly division of 2yo maiden turf sprint goes with eight entered for grass.  #2 Magnificent Margo appears to have trained well up to this, and she is a half to a 12-time winner over grass.  #6 Tela is the first foal from Tejida, who is herself out of Batique, a multiple graded stakes winner on turf.  Trainer Michael Matz gets a 91 rating with 2yo maidens on grass and an 85 rating with turf sprinters.  #4 Lady Zuzu is a half to Optimizer, who made over $700k on turf for this trainer. 
 
Selections:  2-6-4-1
 
bottom
 
 
Race 5:  #5 Bella Kateri made the first move into a fast pace to take the lead, but was run down by a last-to-first closer in turf debut.  Has displayed promise in both starts to date.  #2 Chasing Paradise took a strong run at front-running winner Jet Majesty here opening day, and appeared to put a head in front late, but was turned away and settled for second-best. Has run well in all three turf starts to date.  #7 Joshans Giant finished gamely through the stretch after getting bumped at the break and racing greenly in her sprint debut.  Can build off of that effort for a trainer going well right now. 
 
Selections:  5-2-7-1
 
 
Race 6:  #7 Winter Games kicked the meet off by wiring a field over this trip on the drop, earning a new top TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process.  He was game to turn away two different challengers in that race, and Pace Projector indicates that similar aggressive tactics could play well in this field.  #2 Lieutenant Seany O drops in class for a struggling barn and has distance questions to answer, but his best race puts him there.  #1 Betweenhereandcool plunged in class and came away a no-excuse 3rd here last time. Best effort wins this, but we'll make him put it up to beat us. 
 
Selections:  7-2-1-5
 
 
Race 7:  #9 Dominate has improved since switched to grass, and he made a strong mid-race move before weakening late vs. a tough field of $40k claimers last time.  #4 Loveisheartandsoul blew out maidens toward the end of last year before racing on gamely vs. tougher after a troubled start to close out 2013.  Must be ready off the layoff, but is a big threat if he is.  #5 Handsome Dennis is logical as he comes down another notch in price, but he's exiting a trio of no-excuse losses since arriving in NY.
 
Selections:  9-4-5-8
 
 
Race 8:  #4 In Her Day went to the sidelines after a disappointing effort as the favorite back in April, but was a convincing winner while against an inside-speed bias in her prior start. Half-sister Mother Russia was a multiple stakes winner over Saratoga turf.  
 
8_7_R8
 
#8 Fantastic Eyes is best as a turf sprinter, so we can put a line through her last start going long on the main track.  Has run races that make her very competitive in here.  #3 A P Johnson was a debut winner up here last summer before stretching out in stakes company and obviously has plenty of upside.  
 
Selections:  4-8-3-9
 
 
Race 9:  #7 Bobby's Kitten is the horse to beat in the Hall of Fame after things didn't work out for him when shooting for a big purse going longer last time.  Cut-back works to his advantage, and he may simply be better than these horses.  Of the ones exiting the Manila Stakes downstate, we want #6 Bashart, who was chasing a fast pace the entire trip while making his first start off the layoff.  He won twice up here last summer before running a winning race in the Bourbon at Keeneland with a tough trip.  #1 Give No Quarter remains unclassified after crushing allowance foes with a perfect trip in his turf debut.  This is a big step up, but maybe he's this good.
 
Selections:  6-7-1-5
 
Race 10:  #6 Murmure drops all the way down for Pletcher (100 rating with claimers down in class) while switching from turf to dirt (100 rating) and is unlikely to find a better spot than this.  
 
8_8_R10
 
#2 Molly Jordan is cut in half by a struggling barn for her second start off a long layoff after running into a big blowout winner up here earlier in the meet.  
 
Selections:  6-2-4-7
 
Screen_Shot_2014-08-05_at_10.01.16_PM
 

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, August 8, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Friday, August 8, 2014

Race 2, All 2-year-olds, 5 ½ furlongs, turf, 1:31 p.m.

HILLBILLY STYLE (bay colt, Malibu Moon—Stylish, by Thunder Gulch) is out of a mare who won the Grade 3 Ballston Spa Handicap, Grade 3 Distaff Turf Mile, and Grade 3 Eatontown Handicap, all on the grass. Stylish has produced three winners (two on the grass) from four starters. Hillbilly Style’s second dam, Miss Lenora, won the Grade 3 Bewitch and was a full-sister to Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) winner Madeline’s Dream. Hillbilly Style’s third dam, L’Attrayante, also annexed the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches.

Owner: Willis D. Horton

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Corey Lanerie

Sales history: $150,000 Keeneland September yearling; $250,000 OBS June 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 3/5 seconds, video)

 

DELTA OUTLAW (bay colt, Tiznow—Mistical Plan, by Game Plan) is the first foal out of his dam, a dirt runner who when sprinting won the Grade 1 Princess Rooney Handicap and when routing took the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks and was third in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap.

Owner:  R A Hill Stable

Trainer: George Weaver

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sales history:  $410,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

Race 4, 2-year-old fillies, 5 ½ furlongs, turf, 2:34 p.m.

CO (chestnut filly, Candy Ride—Pure Symmetry, by Storm Cat) is a grandson of Hall of Famer Serena’s Song, who won 11 Grade 1s, with her most lucrative scores coming against males in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational and Grade 2 Jim Beam. Serena’s Song also has been successful as a broodmare, producing Sophisticat, who won the Group 1 Coronation in England; Grand Reward, who took the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap on the dirt and placed in four group stakes in England and Ireland; Harlington, who won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap; Schramsberg, winner of the Grade 3 John B. Connally Turf Cup Handicap; and three-time stakes winner Serena’s Tune. Pure Symmetry, who was winless in six starts, is a full-sister to Sophisticat, Grand Reward, Harlington, and Schramsberg. She has produced three winners from as many starters, none on the turf.

Owner: Andrew Rosen

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sales history: $170,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

MAGNIFICENT MARGO (dark bay or brown filly, Congrats—Holy Miss, by Holy Bull) is a half-sister to General Charley, who ran primarily on the grass and won five stakes and was third in the Grade 3 John B. Connally Turf Handicap; and Truly Lucky, who won a stakes on the dirt at Sam Houston and was stakes placed on the turf at Lone Star Park. All seven starters out of Holy Miss have won, with General Charley and Truly Lucky being her only turf winners. Magnificent Margo’s second dam, Last Blood, won the Aspidistra Handicap on the turf at Calder Race Course.

Owner: Jeff Drown

Trainer: Michael Maker

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $80,000 Keeneland September yearling; $85,000 OBS April 2-year-old (two furlongs in 21 2/5 seconds, video)

 

LADY ZUZU (dark bay or brown filly, Dynaformer—Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy), the sale topper at last year’s Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale, is a half-sister to Optimizer, who has won the Grade 3 Kent, Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap, and Grade 3 Colonel E.R. Bradley Handicap and placed in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap, all on the turf. Optimizer is one of two winners from four starters out of Indy Pick, with Humdinger also winning on the grass. Lady Zuzu’s second dam, Fantastic Find, won the Grade 1 Hempstead Handicap on the dirt and produced Grade 1 Matron and Grade 1 Acorn heroine Finder’s Fee. Fantastic Find is a half-sister to Grade 1 winners Dancing Spree and Furlough.

Owner: Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Luis Saez

Sales history: $1,225,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce