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TimeformUS Analysis Sunday Aug 3

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Saratoga Racing on Sunday Aug 3

Race 1:  2yos kick off the Pick 5, and are led by the Pletcher pair of #3 Kinsley and #5 Feathered, both of whom brought $300k at auction.  Feathered was recently purchased, at OBS March, after blitzing a furlong in 10 seconds flat.  Since Todd tends to send them out ready, we'll expect them both to perform, but will give preference to Feathered.  #1 Harbouring is a half-sister to the fast stakes-winning sprinter Star Harbour, who has won 8 times in his career while earning over $400k.  Her trainer is among the best in the game, but he tends not to have them cranked up right away.
 
Selections:  5-3-7-1
 
Race 2:  #4 Summer Breezing has never been this short, but he is fast and has been at his best sprinting for Christophe Clement.  We think this shorter trip may really suit his speedy style, and he is racing at the right level.  
 
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#3 Escapist didn't have his best chance here last week when unable to get forward position, ultimately having to steady hard on the backstretch.  Has dangerous speed and is eligible to bounce back.  #7 Partly Mocha is a rock-solid turf sprinter at anywhere from 5.5 to 7 furlongs and is a major threat to the top two, especially if they hook up early.
 
Selections:  4-3-7-2
 
Race 3:  Short field of six older maidens entered here, including another Pletcher duo.  Since Todd isn't nearly as potent with his older first-time starters at Saratoga as he is with his 2yos (he's 0 for his last 16 with older runners), we'll go to the logical horse to beat in #4 Flat Jack.  Flat Jack earned a solid 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his game runner-up effort last out, and he is going to be very tough to beat if able to come right back with a similar effort.
 
Selections:  4-2-3-6

 

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Race 4:  Engaging rivalry between #6 Lubash and #7 Kharafa may continue in this stakes-quality allowance for NY-breds.  Kharafa also holds an entry into the Lure stakes on Saturday, so we may not see him in this spot, but he is perhaps the horse to beat if he decides to await this spot.  Either way, Lubash will be difficult to down after extricating himself from some stretch traffic last time and then rolling over the likes of #2 Notacatbutallama and #10 Barrel of Love.
 
Selections:  7-6-10-2
 
Race 5:  Not going to be easy to take a stand against #3 South Sound, who holds all of the fast races for a sharp trainer and appears to be a likely single for many in this Pick 5.
 
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For a backup, #7 Little Gidding is lightly raced and dropping in class, and she has won her only start vs. claiming company to date.  #5 Mononoke has speed, and has run a couple of recent figures that put her within hailing distance of South Sound, but if she's a main contender, that just makes the favorite's position that much stronger. 
 
Selections:  3-7-5-3
 
Race 6:  Wide-open $50k claimer on the grass is expected to feature a fast pace, and there is no shortage of interesting closers to choose from.  #7 Redact was unable to threaten front-running Golden Rifle when making his stateside debut off the layoff, but raced on gamely in a performance that he can certainly build upon here.  He also has the advantage of being a new face to this crew.  We're interested (as usual) in #6 Unbridled Logic, as he has been badly compromised by slow paces recently, and never more so than last time, when winner Glowing Ember walked on an uncontested lead.  #5 Dream Man will also benefit from contested fractions, and he's getting the biggest class drop of all in this field.   
 
Selections:  7-6-5-2
 
Race 7:  Bill Mott tends not to have his babies cranked up first time out, but they're generally better second time, and #1 Militsa flashed speed in a strong field in her debut.  #3 No Shanks debuts for a very sharp trainer, and she is a half to 9-time winner Shankopotomus, who was a winner here earlier in the meet.  #4 Ex Wives is a half to the fast Deadly Dealer, who earned over $300k on the track and was best sprinting on dirt.  #6 Condo Commando is from a dam who was a multiple Grade 2 winner on the track and whose first three foals are all winners.  
 
Selections:  1-3-4-6
 
Race 8:  #3 Where's Danny has been in career-best form since coming back to grass back in April, and he ran a deceptively good race while trying to come wide into a slow pace in a super-tough $50k claimer here opening weekend.  
 
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#8 Cheyenne Nation is the horse to beat as he drops in class, but he's vulnerable based upon his 2014 form to this point.  #10 Cage Fighter is the ML favorite on the class drop for connections that look to win races up here, and he was compromised when trying to close into a slow pace last time.
 
Selections:  3-8-10-1
 
Race 9:  Wide-open running of the Waya offers an opportunity to price hunt.  With that in mind, #6 Levanto was a two-time winner over 1 1/2 miles in Ireland, and rated as a promising horse by Timeform over there despite bombing on more than one occasion.  Went to the lead and stopped in her stateside debut, but the margin is somewhat deceiving with her rider wrapping up approaching the stretch, and it's noteworthy that she has managed to rebound from poor efforts in the past.  #7 Fitful Skies and #8 Inimitable Romanee are the horses to beat, as they are most accomplished to this point and have no distance concerns.  #13 Cat's Claw must draw in, but she has relished distance and is highly progressive.
 
Selections:  6-7-8-13
 
Race 10:  No one to trust in maiden claiming finale, so we will look to a new face in #8 Town Leader.  Clement excels with runners debuting in turf routes (100 rating), and based on the form showing from her competition, she needn't be that much to contend.  #5 Rachel's Temper returns for her 3yo debut with a needed class drop.  She did her best in some tougher spots last year, but simply wasn't good enough, and this class drop should suit her.  #7 Costenia drops for Pletcher, and she has some speed, but there is no shortage of that in this field.  #2 Shaikha enters off of the best last race, but is piling up the chances.  
 
Selections:  8-5-2-7

 

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Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, August 3, 2014

Jon Forbes

Forbes’ Firsters for Sunday, August 3, 2014

Race 1, 2-year-old fillies, six furlongs, dirt, 1 p.m.

HARBOURING (dark bay or brown filly, Indian Charlie—Snug Harbour, by Boston Harbor) is a full-sister to Star Harbour, who so far in his career has won a single stakes, the restricted Sunshine State at Gulfstream Park, and finished third in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector. Harbour also is a half-sister to Lemon Point, who is stakes placed on the turf at Gulfstream and Belmont Park. Their dam, who won a listed stakes at Calder Race Course, is a half-sister to Sunland Park stakes winner Tee Cat. All three starters out of Snug Harbour have won.

Owner: Peter Vegso

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: Joel Rosario

 

KINSLEY(dark bay or brown filly, Pulpit—Uninhibited Song, by Unbridled’s Song) is out of a mare who won stakes at Bay Meadows and Golden Gate Fields and has produced a pair of winners from four starters to date. Uninhibited Song is a half-sister to Grade 2 Cowdin victor Twilight Time.

Owner: Cheyenne Stables

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sales history: $300,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling

 

FEATHERED (bay filly, Indian Charlie—Receipt, by Dynaformer) is out of a mare who was third in a listed stakes at Saratoga and has produced one winner from two previous starters. Feathered’s second dam, Finder’s Fee, won the Grade 1 Matron at 2 and the Grade 1 Acorn at 3, while his third dam, Fantastic Find, was victorious in the Grade 1 Hempstead Handicap.

Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $300,000 OBS March 2-year-old (one furlong in 10 seconds, video)

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce

 

TimeformUS Analysis for August 2

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Saturday, August 2
 
Race 1:  One final try for #11 Ziggy the Great, who was an impressive (and heavily bet) debut winner over this course and distance last summer.  Rallied gamely through the stretch vs. a tougher overall field when cut back last time.  
 
r1
 
#8 Leroy Jr. returns to turf off the layoff. He blew away a field of maidens when last seen sprinting on dirt.  Last turf race was OK going long, and he may simply be a better sprinter.  #2 Hooked Forever was outfinished by #1 Soul House after they contested the pace together on June 22nd, but he is a better horse making one run and will be a much better price today. 
 
Selections:  11-8-2-1
 
 
Race 2:  #8 Alexis Inspires caught a muddy track and completely blew the break in her Churchill debut.  Thought she did well to finish where she did. She is eligible to deliver a much better performance second-time out.  
 
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#3 Skidmore also broke slowly in her debut, then had little chance to impact front-running Resistivity over a Gulfstream main track that tends to carry speed.  Like Alexis Inspires, she is eligible to be much improved with that experience as she returns from a layoff.  #2 Snowbell made a promising debut here last summer, but hasn't been able to build upon that effort and remains a maiden over a full year later.  Didn't run poorly in her second start, which came off of a layoff, and she may appreciate getting back over this track.  #6 Brilliant Jewel and #7 Ridingwiththedevil are the two fastest horses to this point, but they've both disappointed at short prices more than once and are vulnerable to their progressive rivals.  
 
Selections:  8-2-3-6
 
 
Race 3:  #3 Face the Music is by a strong turf influence in Stormy Atlantic, and his dam is a half-sister to champion turfer Point of Entry. Shug not known for first-out success, but he's starting to get there with six debut winners over the past 12 months and three already this year. #5 Cordero is the horse to beat.  He debuted in a super-tough spot vs. stakes company in Europe over seven furlongs and earned progressive marks after being bothered in the late stages.  
 
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#10 Firespike was on his way to an easy debut victory at Ellis Park when he appeared to attempt to jump the rail in midstretch.  Switches from a 7-lb. bug to NY's leading rider.  #4 Strong Coffee is a half to a pair of stakes winners over grass and debuts for a trainer adept at getting runners to win off of workouts.  
 
Selections:  3-5-10-4
 
 
Race 4:  #9 Flashy Gal appeared full of potential as a 2yo in NY for Chad Brown, but never really got going as a 3yo after being transferred to this barn.  Seems back on track after pair of improved starts this year, including a convincing win last time, and while Pace Projector indicates that the runners closer to the pace may hold the advantage, we'll hope that she can use her potent late kick (she has the top late pace rating in the field) to overcome any disadvantage.  #3 Strike Charmer is still lightly raced and improving from start to start.  She was way up against it while trying to close into a slow pace up here last year, and she appeared to take a step forward in her 2014 debut.  #10 Tokyo Time hasn't quite panned out for top connections, but she has run well in her last two starts since returned to NY and fits very well in here.  #2 Lady of Gold has a great inside post and competitive form, and may be a good price to include, assuming the trainer change doesn't attract too much attention. 
 
Selections:  9-3-10-2
 
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Race 5:  As usual, dirt sprint for 2yos, with several first-time starters, figures to go through trainer Todd Pletcher.  He has two entered, including ML favorite #1 Royal Son.  Winstar homebred is from the family of 2yo champion Countess Diana, and he's a half to Awesome Mama, who was a debut winner a couple of years ago.  We're interested in one of his experienced rivals, #6 Pride of Stride, who gets first-time Lasix after dropping back and then rallying late in his Delaware debut.  #7 Waging War brought big money as a yearling and debuts for a trainer who can win with first-time starters, but he has more of a turf pedigree.  #4 Burndines debuts for a red-hot trainer and has attracted Javier Castellano despite Pletcher having two in here.  
 
Selections:  6-1-4-7
 
 
Race 6:  #7 Pretty Syrie flashed potential while sprinting on synthetic and dirt, but is well-bred to handle the switch to grass, and her trainer gets a 99 rating with horses making their first start on turf.  #8 Pink Poppy impressed when charging down maidens through the stretch of her second career start, and then failed to fire after getting rank in the early stages last time.  Should be able to settle this time with a fast pace projected, and can be given a chance to rebound.  #2 Granny Mc's Kitten broke her maiden vs. stakes company up here as a 2yo; makes third start of the year for top connections, and this will be her first attempt at this allowance condition on grass.  
 
Selections:  7-8-2-9
 
 
Race 7:  De La Rose stakes features the return of a pair of graded stakes winners for trainer Chad Brown in #7 Pianist and #8 Dayatthespa.  Of those two, we prefer Dayatthespa, but they'll both have to be ready to go right away if #9 Filimbi continues her ascent for Bill Mott.
 
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She has recency on her two main rivals, and was highly impressive in her confident score over allowance foes when last seen.
 
Selections:  9-8-7-5
 
 
Race 8:  Guaranteed Late Pick 4 kicks off with the Grade 1 Vanderbilt for older sprinters. Both #1 Palace and #8 Bakken arrive here via the True North, which was contested the day before the Belmont Stakes downstate.  Palace prevailed that day with the benefit of a perfect trip tracking a pace duel in which Bakken was involved.  
 
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With plenty of speed signed on here, we could see a replay of that race, though we are expecting Bakken, who was making his first start of the year in the True North, to be a tougher customer this time.  #5 Happy My Way is a razor sharp speed stepping up to face his toughest test to date, and he could have a difficult time early with speed to his outside in the form of Bakken and to his inside in the form of #2 Falling Sky.  
 
Selections:  1-8-5-7
 
 
Race 9:  
 
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Excellent running of the Grade 1 Test figures to be a war from start to finish.  We believe #7 Sweet Reason to be the best horse in the race to this point, and perhaps the top 3yo filly overall at distances under a mile, but she was able to work out a perfect trip from off the pace to win the Grade 1 Acorn last time, and may need a similar clean run to prevail today.  #4 Thank You Marylou turns back to a better distance after trying to stretch out recently, and she had impressed over sprint distances earlier in her career.  #5 Southern Honey has been improving rapidly for Rusty Arnold, winning three in a row while earning competitive TimeformUS Speed Figures along the way. #8 Little Alexis is stepping way up in class off of a pair of convincing wins in Florida.  This is likely to be too tough for her, but she impressed in burying the talented My Miss Sophia in her debut.  #12 Miss Behaviour is a very dangerous horse drawn out in the clear, but she may be pushing her limits over this distance.
 
Selections:  7-4-5-12
 
 
Race 10:  Grade 1 Whitney Handicap with a new $1.5 million purse goes straight through #5 Palace Malice. He is the clear leader of this handicap division right now and appears to be going from strength to strength since returning as a 4yo.
 
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#1 Will Take Charge hasn't been able to hold his terrific form from the second half of 2013 and early 2014 but has a race in him that would make Palace Malice sweat.  He was up against the dynamics of the Foster last time, but will have to rebound all the way in order to take down this prize.  #3 Moreno matched up well with both Palace Malice and Will Take Charge as a 3yo, and he may be set to break through after his game runner-up performance going longer last time.
 
Selections:  3-5-1-7
 
 
Race 11:  Our Pace Projector indicates that a fast pace is on tap for the Lure Stakes, and that may allow #4 Big Blue Kitten to pick up right where he left off after his terrific 2013 season.  Will be tough with something approaching his best, but he may be prepping for some longer graded stakes assignments later in the season.  #8 Villandry never really got going as a 4yo, but he's been in improved form this year, and he was up against it when trying to close down a loose-on-the-lead Silver Max last time.  #12 Kharafa took the worst of the draw, but he has been going well over a long series of races and can be tough if able to work out a trip.  #2 Swift Warrior is also a big danger from his perfect inside post, and he will be hoping to catch firm ground for the first time this year.
 
Selections:  2-4-8-12
 
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Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, August 2, 2014

Jon Forbes

 

Forbes’ Firsters for Saturday, August 2, 2014

Race 3, All 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 2:02 p.m.

FACE THE MUSIC (bay colt, Stormy Atlantic—Voyage, by Rahy) is out of an unraced half-sister to Pine Island, who won the Grade 1 Alabama and Grade 1 Gazelle on the dirt, and Point of Entry, who registered Grade 1 victories on the turf in the Man o’ War, Sword Dancer Invitational, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational, Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, and Manhattan Handicap. Face the Music’s second dam, Matlacha Pass, produced multiple graded stakes winner/multiple grade 1 placed runner Country Hideaway and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Pleasant Home. His fourth dam, Maplejinsky, won the Grade 1 Alabama and produced Champion Three-Year-Old Filly Sky Beauty. Voyage has produced one winner from two starters, with that runner’s sole victory coming in a turf race.

Owner: Phipps Stable

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Joel Rosario

 

STRONG COFFEE (dark bay or brown colt, Warrior’s Reward—Classic Approval, by With Approval) is a half-brother to Gulch Approval, who on the turf won the Grade 3 Oceanport Handicap and Grade 3 Appleton and was third in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile; Approval Rating, who ran primarily on turf and all-weather surfaces and at Woodbine won the Victoria Park and was second in the Grade 3 Dominion Day Handicap; and Rusty Slipper, who took the Little Silver on the turf at Monmouth Park. Classic Approval, who placed in stakes on the dirt and turf, also produced Moyne Abbey, the dam of Grade 1 TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial and Jim Dandy winner Wicked Strong. Strong Coffee’s second dam, Classic Value, did most of her running in sprints, winning a pair of Grade 3 races and placing in a Grade 1. Classic Value also produced multiple graded stakes winner Class Kris and stakes winner/multiple graded stakes placed Patriot Act.

 

Owner: Albert Frassetto

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sales history: $120,000 OBS March 2-year-old (two furlongs in 22 1/5 seconds, video)

 

MR MONEYPANTS (dark bay or brown colt, Sarava—Bodyguard, by Private Terms) is out of a winning daughter of Fortissima, a Group 1 winner in Chile who was third in a stakes at Santa Anita. Bodyguard, who won five races on the dirt, has produced four winners from as many starters. Two of her starters have won on the turf.

Owner: New Phoenix Stable

Trainer: Wayne Catalano

Jockey: Robby Albarado

 

DELTA OUTLAW (bay colt, Tiznow—Mistical Plan, by Game Plan) is the first foal out of his dam, a dirt runner who when sprinting won the Grade 1 Princess Rooney Handicap and when routing took the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks and was third in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap.

Owner:  R A Hill Stable

Trainer: George Weaver

Jockey: Joseph Rocco, Jr.

Sales history:  $410,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

Race 5, All 2-year-olds, six furlongs, dirt, 3:06 p.m.

WAGING WAR (bay colt, War Front—Sidle, by Seeking the Gold) is out of a mare who won a single race on the dirt. Sidle is a half-sister to Patrol, who won three turf stakes and was third in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, and Stroll, who won the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. Waging War’s second dam, Maid for Walking, was second in a Group 3 in England.

 

Owner: Columbine Stable

Trainer: Albert Stall, Jr.

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sales history: $350,000 Keeneland September yearling

 

FIRE AWAY(bay colt, War Front—Salute, by Unbridled’s Song) is a half-brother to Mr Speaker, who in July captured the inaugural Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational on the turf. The only other starter out of Salute won a single race apiece on dirt, turf, and synthetic surfaces. Salute herself placed in the Grade 2 Demoiselle and Grade 3 Tempted and is a daughter of unbeaten Hall of Famer Personal Ensign, who also produced Grade 1 winners Miner’s Mark, My Flag, and Traditionally.

Owner: Phipps Stable

Trainer: Claude McGaughey III

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

 

FORBES’ FIRSTERS ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS

To be eligible for Forbes’ Firsters, a first-time starter running in a non-statebred race must meet at least one of the following criteria:

? Is out of a graded-stakes-winning mare

? Is a sibling to a graded-stakes winner

? Is out of a Grade 1-placed mare

? Is a sibling to a Grade 1-placed runner

? Is out of a black-type earning mare who earned at least $300,000

? Is a sibling to a black-type earner who has earned at least $300,000

? Has a second dam who was a Grade 1 winner

? Has a second dam who produced a Grade 1 winner

? Sold for at least $300,000 at auction

Forbes’ Firsters is a collaboration among Jon Forbes, Susie Raisher, and Lily Pierce