Tuesday, August 26, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis of Wednesday's Races at Saratoga
Race 2: #1 Hi Speed Chase was overpowered by subsequent stakes winner Our Caravan when trying to stretch around two turns when last seen. Makes 3yo debut with a slight class drop, and he has the kind of speed that can be dangerous on the cut-back. #2 Marsh Creek chased the pace while thee-wide throughout and didn't have enough in the stretch on debut for Pletcher. Steps down a bit in class and can do better in this field with any improvement. #6 Alexndeed has come away second best without any excuse in each of his last two starts, so we don't want him on top, but he has drawn well on the outside and is a contender with a typical effort for him. #4 War of Honor finished gamely for 2nd behind class-dropping speedster Frame in muddy track debut. He's the lone entrant stepping up in class today but he won't require much improvement to make an impact here. #5 Sherifco exits the same race as Marsh Creek and he had trouble in there on the far turn. Will need to improve but is obviously eligible to do so.
Race 3: Tough PG Johnson features seven 2yo fillies, six of whom are stretching out in distance for the first time today. New face #1 Ancient Goddess may have found a good spot to make her stateside debut after taking some money and running well in each of her two starts in France. New trainer does an excellent job all around and is especially good with runners switching to his barn for the first time. #4 Flying Tipat is a maiden, but she's also the lone entrant to have been this far already and she finished gamely in her debut behind a pair of runners who were up on an easy pace all the way. Full sister Tapitsfly won this race a few years ago. #2 Sunday Sonnet has looked quite good on dirt to begin her career, but she has the pedigree to handle this surface switch, being a half to the multiple graded stakes winning turfer Pianist, who has made almost $500k in her career.
Race 4: #1 Beyond Empire may have finally found the right spot here, but he is a horse we are interested in being against going forward, especially when he is a short price, as he will most likely be today. We'll try to beat him with #3 Gridley Here, who makes his dirt debut today. He's second off the layoff and eligible to be moving forward in just his second start as a 3yo. New trainer has solid ratings with runners making their second start out of his barn (87) and with runners stretching out from sprint to route (90).
Race 5: #4 In Spite of Mama had speed in main track debut after taking some money and figures tighter second time out for trainer who is six for his last nine with turf sprinters in NY. #5 Jessica's Ride trailed several of these on July 30th after breaking very awkwardly from the gate. Never was asked for too much after that, and will get Lasix and blinkers while switching to grass for second start. Of the firsters, #10 Hot Like Hepburn is a Freud, and she brought $230k after working 9.4 at OBS April. #12 Madison Blues has plenty of turf pedigree and will debut for a sharp trainer should he draw into the field.
Race 6: #8 Club O R starts for excellent debut trainer who sports series of strong ratings across relevant categories with 2yos in maiden claiming races. #9 Ms Eileen starts for an underrated trainer, and she is a half-sister to a Grade 1 winner in Sis City. #5 Miss Potenza has the experience that her rivals lack, and she did some running in that turf debut before tiring late.
Race 7: #6 Console ran his Saratoga turf sprint record to an impressive 2-for-2 when speeding to control and holding safe in a sharp turnaround in form on July 21. If he runs as well again, he will likely win, but we thought that #1 Isn'tlovejustgrand ran equally well that day, and will give him a chance to turn the tables this time. #4 Stormy Rocit is stepping up in class off a gutsy win over $25k claimers, and he was able to prevail that day despite being forced into a 4-or-5 wide run through the turn. Will need to step it up vs. the top two.
Race 8: #2B Saint Pierre has improved since being turned over to a young trainer off to a strong start this year, and she has already sent out an upset winner at this meet. We'll take him if he's the half of the entry that starts. #10 Zane has endured some tough luck in NY recently, with his rider overcommitting to the inside all the way in each of his last two turf starts and then having his scheduled start up here rained off. He keeps Joe Rocco, Jr. today, who was aboard for that convincing win at Gulfstream back in March. #7 Sayler's Creek is one length away from winning six straight turf routes, but he's been getting one perfect trip after another in those races and was defeated the one time he didn't have all the best of it. #6 Manchurian High has been in career form as a 6yo, and enters here directly off of game try going longer in stakes company.
Race 9: #10 Ziptronic is way the horse to beat in this turf sprint after going back-to-back as an 8yo. Each of his last three TimeformUS Speed Figures are faster than any race his competitors have managed to run recently and Pace Projector puts him in control of the pace in a race that favors runners on or near the lead. #6 Casa Creek is the likeliest upsetter after enduring tough trips. We think he can do better with a little luck this time, but he'll have to against Ziptronic.
Race 10: #9 Retire Fifty Five had finished 2nd in both prior starts around this level on grass, including last one up here, in which he gave game chase to All Cash, who returned to just miss with winners in his next start with an 88 TFUS Speed Figure. Will be tough with a similar effort vs. these horses. #1 Eight Cents tries turf with enough pedigree to handle the switch, and he has speed from an inside post. #3 Carson's Ten drops back down after failing to get involved vs. better in New Jersey. He also has some speed and has had only one chance down around this level. #5 Romans Paradise was behind Retire Fifty Five as the favorite last time without apparent excuse and will have to do better.