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TimeformUS Analysis for August 23

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Saratoga on Travers Day, Aug 23

Race 1:  #5 Three Alarm Fire ran a 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his promising debut.  Will put the pressure on the firsters if running as well right back.  #2 Hidden Candy broke very slowly in turf debut, and raced greenly while catching up to the field. Switches to dirt for second start, but showed enough in there to expect improvement. Todd Pletcher hasn't had his typical meet with his first-time starters up here (he's won with just four of 22 of them on dirt to this point), and he's not as potent with his older ones as he is with his 2yos, but #7 Liam's Map was an $800k yearling, and he shows up here with some fast works in tow.  
 
Selections:  5-2-7-8
 
 
Race 2:  #9 Potthast took money for his sprint debut and was finishing gamely despite having no pace to close into.  May appreciate having more ground to work with.  #2 Face the Music is the horse to beat off promising debut behind a good-looking winner here earlier in the meet.  Figures to improve for the experience, and there were whispers leading in to that one that this well-bred colt had some ability.  #4 The Truth or Else was back off the pace on the stretch-out last time and was finishing gamely late to just miss 2nd.  Runner-up from that race went to Arlington to win his next start.  #5 Blazing Truth will stretch out for his second start after racing wide and appearing green in the stretch.  
 
Selections:  9-2-4-5
 
 
Race 3:  #10 Blue Pigeon finished behind a couple of these in his 3yo debut on July 26th, but that was a fast-paced race and he wound up close to it before failing to rally hard in the stretch.  Think he can do better than that, as his 2yo form suggests he has some ability.  
 
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6 John Bailey may be the one to beat after posting new top figure (91) win in his first start back as a 3yo.  He dueled down a heavy favorite through the stretch that day, and it was encouraging to see him show an ability to rate.  #1 Poliziotto makes his second start back as well, and he projects for a nice inside stalking trip from his rail draw.  #9 Iced Over endured a very tough trip in turf debut back in June, but he parlayed a perfect one into a win in his first start with fellow NY-breds earlier in the meet, and he had a bar shoe removed.
 
Selections:  10-6-1-7
 
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Race 4:  In the event that you're one of the blissful few out there without a Twitter account, let's get the Tony Dutrow second-time-starter-at-Saratoga stat out of the way:  He has won with seven of the last 10 on dirt up here, and that includes three winners this meet.  His #8 Today's Agenda could do no better than 2nd first time out behind Competitive Edge, who was perhaps the most impressive 2yo to debut at this meet.  He finished just ahead of #7 Bayerd in there, and Bayerd is also sent over by a trainer who does excellent work with second-time starters.  They are both major players here, but we'll put #6 Waging War on top.  After getting away slowly from the gate on August 2nd, Waging War made a sharp run through the turn while hung up very wide, and he never gave in through the stretch while weakening late.  There are, as always, some interesting firsters in this field, but we'll stick with the experienced runners for now. 
 
Selections:  6-7-8-2
 
 
Race 5:  Not thrilled to be taking the 1-for-20 #9 Divine Luck on top, but there is little doubt that she's been unlucky in each of her last two starts.  She failed to get clear at all in the stretch two starts back at Belmont, and she lacked room at a crucial point up here on July 19th before finishing well too late behind a pair of fillies who both came back to run well here again.  #6 Luna Time has the upside as she switches to turf for the first time here, and her dam was a two-time stakes winner on grass.  She galloped out with a purpose in her career debut and was game to get up to break her maiden last time after having to alter course in the stretch.  
 
Selections:  9-6-2-1
 
 
Race 6:  #4 Shatak must be ready off the layoff, but he has run well in all three career starts so far, and may have closed down a pair of talented rivals when last seen had they not drifted over in front of him late.  Projects for a perfect trip tracking up close in a race that our Pace Projector indicates will favor runners up close to the lead.  #1 Picozza has burned too much cash to take on top, but this is the right race for him, and he didn't run poorly in either of his recent starts at Monmouth.  #8 McIlroy has come forward rapidly for Chad Brown since being claimed for $50k earlier in the year, and he has a versatile running style.  Came away narrowly second best after engaging in a game stretch duel with a heavily favored winner last time.  #12 Adirondack Dancer repeats the pattern that produced a winning effort for him last year on Travers Day, returning 14 days after a game effort over this track.  #6 Powerful Instinct is out of NY-bred conditions, but he has turned things around since being transferred to Chad Brown last year, and he exits a much-the-best win on July 24th. 
 
Selections:  4-1-8-6
 
 
Race 7:  #3 Pretty Fancy's best races to date have come around one turn, including a Churchill Downs mile on May 24th in which she took part in a contested pace and prevailed only to be closed down late by an odds-on favorite.  Like the turn-back for her after being in contention past midstretch of 9-furlong race last time.  #4 Predicate is just 1-for-13, but she shows up every time and rallied gamely once again last time after extricating herself from the inside to just miss catching a heavily favored winner.  Not a bad spot for #10 Divided Attention to kick off her 3yo campaign, and she'll do so with Lasix on for the first time.  She showed potential last year, and she appeared to lose position after getting intimidated on the far turn of the Tempted Stakes.  
 
Selections:  3-4-10-2
 
 
Race 8:   #9 Royal Blessing is getting the proper turn-back today after spending much of the past year running in races that are too far for him.  Really not sure what to do with #2 North Slope as he comes back to grass after a brief foray on the main track.  He's disappointed after showing early promise, but he's also had plenty of excuses, and we still believe in his natural ability.  This is the right kind of race for him, assuming he isn't completely finished. Both #4 Bad Debt and #6 Star Channel are capable and are contenders, but we'll take our chances with the top two.
 
Selections:  9-2-4-6
 
 
Race 9:  Late Pick 4 with a guaranteed $1 million pool kicks off with the Grade 2 Ballston Spa on turf.  #7 Filimbi impressed when overpowering #5 Dayatthespa in a prep for this, and she is a well-connected filly with much upside.  We expect her to be tough, but Dayatthespa is a talent in her own right and had to work hard contesting the pace in front of Filimbi in that race.  She can make it closer this time.  We are also interested in #2 Centre Court.  She appears to have lost a step or two since that big Grade 1 Jenny Wiley win early last year, but she has gotten a pair of questionable rides recently, and she'll be a price.
 
Selections:  2-7-5-3
 
 
Race 10:  As one might expect of a Grade 1 sprint carrying a $500k purse, there is plenty of speed signed on to contest the King's Bishop.  #2 Wildcat Red has some of that speed, but he's been effective from a stalking position, and he figures to be ridden that way as he turns back out of longer races.  Think he's best over these shorter races, and he's a fighter.  #7 The Big Beast put up a 110 TFUS Speed Figure for blowout win over this track ladt time, and he is a talented 3yo sprinter on the upswing.  #8 Coup de Grace is a talented closing sprinter who will also appreciate any pace that develops in front of him.  Don't think he's necessarily one to take a short price on, but we're using him in our Pick 4.  We also want #5 Noble Moon on our tickets as he returns from a layoff.  He showed talent earlier in the year and can be a big threat with any natural improvement.
 
Selections:  2-7-8-5
 
 
Race 11:  Grade 1 Ballerina has a NY-bred feel, with four fillies bred in the Empire State entered.  We think all of them are contenders and are taking them at the expense of multiple Grade 1 winners #2 Better Lucky and #4 My Miss Aurelia.  #5 Willet has come back better than ever through two starts this year.  Lone graded stakes tries to this point have come over longer distances, or off of layoffs, but we like her better as a sprinter.  #8 Hot Stones has run nothing but good races, and she is a major threat turning back out of a game Shuvee try.  #1 Artemis Agrotera is already a Grade 1 winner, and she has won her two starts over this track by a combined 22 lengths.
 
Selections:  5-8-1-2
 
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Race 12:  Make no mistake. Whether you think he can get the distance or not, the Travers goes straight through ML favorite #2 Bayern.  He's the clear speed, and it's unlikely that anyone will want to challenge him too hard early.  We're going against him today, but without enthusiasm.  We have liked #6 Tonalist from day one and think he is set to break through as he makes his second start back from a short break off his Belmont Stakes win.  #7 Wicked Strong is not to be taken lightly, and he is our main backup. 
 
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Selections:  6-7-2-8
 
 
Race 13:  #9 Weave is an improving horse for a top trainer, and she was compromised by an outside draw and wide trip last time in a race where the horses racing toward the inside throughout had the advantage.  She had a big excuse two races back in spill-marred race at Belmont, and we liked her determined late run to close down maidens at Laurel prior to that.  #5 Sky Painter makes her three-year-old debut here for top connections, and she certainly flashed enough potential last year to believe that she can be tough here with first-time Lasix.  #1 More Than Less is still green but has shown ability and she did not get a good trip in her last start.  
 
Selections:  9-5-1-4
 
 
Race 14:  #2 Macagone raced away on too fast of a pace last time and couldn't stay on through the stretch.  Figures to be able to settle more today with other pace in the race, and his best effort is good enough.  #3 Thurgood has appeared to have potential beyond the NY-bred ranks after two starts.  He did catch a fast pace to close into last time, but he was impressive, and there is not a lack of speed in this race, either.   #5 Morning Calm fits well in here based on game effort trying to track down the talented Storm, who remains undefeated on grass.  Not thrilled to see that he was listed as a vet scratch on June 18.  
 
Selections:  2-3-5-6
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for August 22

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Saratoga on Friday, August 22

Race 1:  #2 Bernie the Maestro goes well over this track and we'll take him to improve for a trainer who has had a good meet to this point, and who does well with these older sprinters off the claim. #4 Moments Notiz has avoided NY since streaking start once imported by this trainer at Aqueduct, but he's continued to race competitively out of town, and he has a race to get to that makes him tough in here.  #5 Doubledown Again has settled for 2nd or 3rd in each of his seven starts since arriving in NY, and figures to be able to land a piece, at least, in this spot as well.

Selections:  2-4-5-3
 
 
Race 2:  #7 Nejma wasn't going to factor vs. an impressive winner here on August 3rd, but she was up against it immediately after missing the break, and she raced greenly down on the rail through the stretch.  Down slightly in class for second start and is eligible for much better.  #8 Know It All Anna acquitted herself well in a tough field on debut, then stumbled at the start vs. MSW company here on opening day.  Class drop will help and she drew well on the outside for first start in blinkers. #2 Zarleeza caught a sloppy track for her debut at Monmouth, and she was outrun in the early stages before passing some horses late.  Pletcher wins with a lot of first-time starters, but he also gets a 100 trainer rating with second-time starters and with the MSW to MCL drop. 
 
Selections:  7-8-2-3
 
 
Race 3:  Well-matched group of sprinters will go six furlongs for $100k in the Tale of the Cat.  #7 Sensational Slam isn't quite up to graded stakes quality, but he's been holding form over a long series of races.  Think he'll appreciate getting away from the Monmouth main track, which was carrying speed on Haskell Day.  He just needs some pace to close into.  #3 Bahamian Squall also fits better in this kind of race, though he was a complete no-show in a weak renewal of the Grade 1 Vanderbilt last time.  Can be given one more chance as he makes his third start off the layoff.  #6 Bern Identity held potential early in his career and impressed in his return from a long layoff in the Monmouth slop.  Faces some solid older sprinters here, but holds much upside and has the tactical speed to pull the right trip.  
 
Selections:  7-3-6-1
 
 
Race 4:  #6 Savvy Star has a big pedigree (100 rating, for dirt sprints), being a half to Haskell winner Bluegrass Cat from the family of Derby winner Super Saver, and debuts in a likely field considering what we've seen from the experienced runners to this point.  Trainer doesn't crank up his 2yos for early success, but does much better with his older first-time starters.  
 
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#1 Running Wild took a step forward here in her 3yo debut, and figures tough if improving from that run for a trainer who has been on a good run.  #3 Judy Legend can also do better in her second start of the year after finishing behind Running Wild last time.  Earned solid 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her debut as a 2yo.
 
Selections:  6-1-3-4
 
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Race 5:  5th features the return of the talented #4 Cigar Street, who hasn't been seen since completing hat trick on the Grade 3 Skip Away with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure back in March of 2013.  He's better than these with one of his good efforts, but it may not be wise to expect that today.  If he's just out there to shake off some rust, #2 Qualify was heading the right way before settling for 3rd in tough allowance here last month.  That was his first attempt at nine furlongs, and he can do better with the experience behind him.  #7 Bad Hombre is pushing his limit going this far, but he tried gamely while contesting the pace ahead of Qualify last time, and also ran very well in the Curlin at this distance up here last summer.  #3 Awesome Vision is consistent and he can take advantage late as he can get this distance without issue, which can't be said so easily for some of the others. 
 
Selections:  2-4-7-3
 
 
Race 6:  #5 Honor the Kitten has run the fastest races in the field, and he took the worst of it last time when rated wide off the pace behind a wire-to-wire winner.  Drops in price off the claim, but is tough in this field with a typical effort.  
 
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#1 Tiu ran very well three times on turf up here last summer, and returns to that surface for the first time since for top connections after finally getting overdue win on dirt last time.  #11 Giant Jo had to be used to get position from an outside post when dropped in for the price in his 3yo debut, and he was impressive in kicking away from that field in the stretch.  Took the worst of the draw once again. 
 
Selections:  5-1-11-6
 
 
Race 7:  #3 Paulassilverlining debuted over a muddy track earlier in the meet and found herself in a pace duel with a Tony Dutrow-trained second-time starter before tiring in the stretch.  Faces some very well-bred and well-connected firsters here, but can be tough on them if showing similar speed in this spot.  #1 Gap Year is out of Grade 1 Ballerina winner Dubai Escapade and debuts with some strong works in tow.  #2 Path has also been working well, and she has a versatile pedigree, being by Tapit and out of a dam who was a Grade 1 winner on synthetic, a stakes winner on turf, and Grade 1-placed on dirt.  #9 Souper Social is the first foal from a dam who is a full sister to Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose winner Secret Status. 
 
Selections:  3-1-2-9
 
 
Race 8:  #6 Crushing couldn't impact the speedy Stormin Monarcho most recently, but he impressively overpowered a field first time back from the layoff, and he doesn't figure to struggle with the distance for a trainer who is heating up right now.  #1 Smooth Bert hasn't come back to form so far this year, but he's been in a couple of tough spots and he has the speed to pull the right kind of trip here as he makes his third start back off the layoff.  #9 Away Game already owns a pair of wins over this distance, including an upset win here last month after a perfect trip.
 
Selections:  6-1-9-5
 
 
Race 9:  Very interesting edition of the Grade 1 Personal Ensign is on tap. It feels as if legitimate cases can be made for many of the horses.  #6 Close Hatches is the horse to beat in current form, and she has a running style that allows her to avoid being compromised by race dynamics.  Her rival #7 Princess of Sylmar is in something of a make-or-break spot here after disappointing as a heavy favorite last time.  Not sure that adding blinkers is a good sign for her, as Pletcher pulls that move with limited success overall and almost no success in races like this (1 for last 15 in graded stakes).  Both #1 Antipathy and #5 Belle Gallantey finished close up to the two favorites (surprisingly) in the Ogden Phipps, and they have both since returned to prove that that result was no fluke.  We could take either one to post an upset but will go with Antipathy, who got in a win over this track and trip earlier in the meet and appears to be a filly on the improve.
 
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Selections:  1-6-7-5
 
 
Race 10:  #8 Beamer didn't take to jumping, but he put in a run through some traffic when returned to the flat after a layoff and is a threat with the right trip in this field.  #4 Film Shot has come up short more than once in races that he appeared to have at his mercy, but he's also faced better horses right along and figures to benefit from the class relief.  Still not sure what #3 Best Play's best game is, but he's a good fit at this level on grass and has run races that make him competitive.  Figures to get overlooked in the wagering off the claim.  #6 Media Kid is logical getting back to grass after contesting an off-the-turf affair last time.  Has the kind of tactical speed that can get him any trip in a race. 
 
Selections:  8-4-6-3
 
 
Race 11:  #3 Aripeka got a good trip and just missed after engaging in a stretch duel with Arch Avenger last time.  Finished ahead of, and ran better than, several of these that day, and is tough to down if coming back with a similar performance.  #1 Smokey Brown never kicked in with a run when behind Aripeka last time, but he is capable of producing a better finish, and he will add Lasix for the first time today.  #8 Pecorino is interesting switching to grass first off the claim by Linda Rice.  He is out of a dam whose three career wins all came on turf, and Rice also took the aforementioned Arch Avenger, who had turf pedigree but had never run on it, from Todd Pletcher and switched him to grass with immediate success.  
 
Selections:  3-1-8-5
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for August 22

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Saratoga on Friday, August 22

Race 1:  #2 Bernie the Maestro goes well over this track and we'll take him to improve for a trainer who has had a good meet to this point, and who does well with these older sprinters off the claim. #4 Moments Notiz has avoided NY since streaking start once imported by this trainer at Aqueduct, but he's continued to race competitively out of town, and he has a race to get to that makes him tough in here.  #5 Doubledown Again has settled for 2nd or 3rd in each of his seven starts since arriving in NY, and figures to be able to land a piece, at least, in this spot as well.

Selections:  2-4-5-3
 
 
Race 2:  #7 Nejma wasn't going to factor vs. an impressive winner here on August 3rd, but she was up against it immediately after missing the break, and she raced greenly down on the rail through the stretch.  Down slightly in class for second start and is eligible for much better.  #8 Know It All Anna acquitted herself well in a tough field on debut, then stumbled at the start vs. MSW company here on opening day.  Class drop will help and she drew well on the outside for first start in blinkers. #2 Zarleeza caught a sloppy track for her debut at Monmouth, and she was outrun in the early stages before passing some horses late.  Pletcher wins with a lot of first-time starters, but he also gets a 100 trainer rating with second-time starters and with the MSW to MCL drop. 
 
Selections:  7-8-2-3
 
 
Race 3:  Well-matched group of sprinters will go six furlongs for $100k in the Tale of the Cat.  #7 Sensational Slam isn't quite up to graded stakes quality, but he's been holding form over a long series of races.  Think he'll appreciate getting away from the Monmouth main track, which was carrying speed on Haskell Day.  He just needs some pace to close into.  #3 Bahamian Squall also fits better in this kind of race, though he was a complete no-show in a weak renewal of the Grade 1 Vanderbilt last time.  Can be given one more chance as he makes his third start off the layoff.  #6 Bern Identity held potential early in his career and impressed in his return from a long layoff in the Monmouth slop.  Faces some solid older sprinters here, but holds much upside and has the tactical speed to pull the right trip.  
 
Selections:  7-3-6-1
 
 
Race 4:  #6 Savvy Star has a big pedigree (100 rating), being a half to Haskell winner Bluegrass Cat from the family of Derby winner Super Saver, and debuts in a likely field considering what we've seen from the experienced runners to this point.  Trainer doesn't crank up his 2yos for early success, but does much better with his older first-time starters.  
 
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#1 Running Wild took a step forward here in her 3yo debut, and figures tough if improving from that run for a trainer who has been on a good run.  #3 Judy Legend can also do better in her second start of the year after finishing behind Running Wild last time.  Earned solid 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her debut as a 2yo.
 
Selections:  6-1-3-4
 
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Race 5:  5th features the return of the talented #4 Cigar Street, who hasn't been seen since completing hat trick on the Grade 3 Skip Away with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure back in March of 2013.  He's better than these with one of his good efforts, but it may not be wise to expect that today.  If he's just out there to shake off some rust, #2 Qualify was heading the right way before settling for 3rd in tough allowance here last month.  That was his first attempt at nine furlongs, and he can do better with the experience behind him.  #7 Bad Hombre is pushing his limit going this far, but he tried gamely while contesting the pace ahead of Qualify last time, and also ran very well in the Curlin at this distance up here last summer.  #3 Awesome Vision is consistent and he can take advantage late as he can get this distance without issue, which can't be said so easily for some of the others. 
 
Selections:  2-4-7-3
 
 
Race 6:  #5 Honor the Kitten has run the fastest races in the field, and he took the worst of it last time when rated wide off the pace behind a wire-to-wire winner.  Drops in price off the claim, but is tough in this field with a typical effort.  
 
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#1 Tiu ran very well three times on turf up here last summer, and returns to that surface for the first time since for top connections after finally getting overdue win on dirt last time.  #11 Giant Jo had to be used to get position from an outside post when dropped in for the price in his 3yo debut, and he was impressive in kicking away from that field in the stretch.  Took the worst of the draw once again. 
 
Selections:  5-1-11-6
 
 
Race 7:  #3 Paulassilverlining debuted over a muddy track earlier in the meet and found herself in a pace duel with a Tony Dutrow-trained second-time starter before tiring in the stretch.  Faces some very well-bred and well-connected firsters here, but can be tough on them if showing similar speed in this spot.  #1 Gap Year is out of Grade 1 Ballerina winner Dubai Escapade and debuts with some strong works in tow.  #2 Path has also been working well, and she has a versatile pedigree, being by Tapit and out of a dam who was a Grade 1 winner on synthetic, a stakes winner on turf, and Grade 1- placed on dirt.  #9 Souper Social is the first foal from a dam who is a full sister to Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose winner Secret Status. 
 
Selections:  3-1-2-9
 
 
Race 8:  #6 Crushing couldn't impact the speedy Stormin Monarcho most recently, but he impressively overpowered a field first time back from the layoff, and he doesn't figure to struggle with the distance for a trainer who is heating up right now.  #1 Smooth Bert hasn't come back to form so far this year, but he's been in a couple of tough spots and he has the speed to pull the right kind of trip here as he makes his third start back off the layoff.  #9 Away Game already owns a pair of wins over this distance, including an upset win here last month after a perfect trip.
 
Selections:  6-1-9-5
 
 
Race 9:  Very interesting edition of the Grade 1 Personal Ensign is on tap. It feels as if legitimate cases can be made for many of the horses.  #6 Close Hatches is the horse to beat in current form, and she has a running style that allows her to avoid being compromised by race dynamics.  Her rival #7 Princess of Sylmar is in something of a make-or-break spot here after disappointing as a heavy favorite last time.  Not sure that adding blinkers is a good sign for her, as Pletcher pulls that move with limited success overall and almost no success in races like this (1 for last 15 in graded stakes).  Both #1 Antipathy and #5 Belle Gallantey finished close up to the two favorites (surprisingly) in the Ogden Phipps, and they have both since returned to prove that that result was no fluke.  We could take either one to post an upset but will go with Antipathy, who got in a win over this track and trip earlier in the meet and appears to be a filly on the improve.
 
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Selections:  1-6-7-5
 
 
Race 10:  #8 Beamer didn't take to jumping, but he put in a run through some traffic when returned to the flat after a layoff and is a threat with the right trip in this field.  #4 Film Shot has come up short more than once in races that he appeared to have at his mercy, but he's also faced better horses right along and figures to benefit from the class relief.  Still not sure what #3 Best Play's best game is, but he's a good fit at this level on grass and has run races that make him competitive.  Figures to get overlooked in the wagering off the claim.  #6 Media Kid is logical getting back to grass after contesting an off-the-turf affair last time.  Has the kind of tactical speed that can get him any trip in a race. 
 
Selections:  8-4-6-3
 
 
Race 11:  #3 Aripeka got a good trip and just missed after engaging in a stretch duel with Arch Avenger last time.  Finished ahead of, and ran better than, several of these that day, and is tough to down if coming back with a similar performance.  #1 Smokey Brown never kicked in with a run when behind Aripeka last time, but he is capable of producing a better finish, and he will add Lasix for the first time today.  #8 Pecorino is interesting switching to grass first off the claim by Linda Rice.  He is out of a dam whose three career wins all came on turf, and Rice also took the aforementioned Arch Avenger, who had turf pedigree but had never run on it, from Todd Pletcher and switched him to grass with immediate success.  
 
Selections:  3-1-8-5
 
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TimeformUS Analysis for August 21

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing on Thursday, August 21
 
Race 1:  Steeplechase
 
Race 2:  #5 Gem City Gal picked up her game right away when switched back to dirt in December, posting the easiest of wins with a new top TimeformUS Speed Figure, and she has followed that race up with a trio of solid performances vs. better.  Should be in a good position up close on the outside in a race that our Pace Projector indicates will favor runners either on or near the early lead.  #2 Tiz May West began her career with promise, but things haven't worked out for her, and she drops in for the price for her third start back from the layoff.  Caught a tough field up here earlier in the meet.  #6 Ocean Boulevard needs some pace to attack, which she may not get, but she's also dropping way down in class and is eligible for better as she starts back as a 3yo.
 
Selections:  5-2-6-3
 
 
Race 3:  #3 Blue Shark got legged up with a turf try off the layoff, and will now switch back to the main track for his second start as a 3yo.  Lone dirt try came vs. much tougher, and he has the speed to avoid being compromised.  #7 Vagarious lost all chance with a bad stumble at the start last time.  Has faced tougher than this on dirt in the past.  #1 Bryce Bryce Baby stretches out with dangerous speed but will be tested by this nine-furlong distance.  Both #2 Jacob's Here and #6 Fictionalcharacter exit a try over this track and trip vs. $40k maiden claimers, and neither could take advantage of good trips in that spot. Jacob's Here did have to come wider that day, and he gets a rider change to Javier Castellano.
 
Selections:  3-7-1-2
 
 
Race 4:  #1 Lonely Teardrops impressed in running away to convincing win two starts back, and she fought gamely when challenged by, among others, #5 Wine Burglar after making the lead last time.  Improving 3yo filly has the speed to pull the right trip from her inside post.  Wine Burglar wheels back quickly off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez after disappointing here last week.  Something more like her effort two back makes her tough. #6 Funky Munky Fever has a potent late kick and may simply be better than these horses, but she needs pace to close into.  
 
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#4 Under Scrutiny parlayed a perfect trip and ride into an upset score over this course earlier in the meet.  Needs to pick it up a bit, but she is not out of this. 
 
 
Selections:  1-6-5-4
 
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Race 5:  #2 Sashay just missed in blanket finish up here first time out after having to steady a bit on the far turn.  Clement tends to send them over ready to go first time, so we may not see much improvement today.  #8 Overspending was whispered to be a good thing for Pletcher in debut and she had speed but was run down late in disappointing performance.  Switching to turf right away may not be the best sign in the world for her.  #5 Well Composed debuts for Chad Brown, who has won with four of his last 11 2yos debuting in turf sprints at Saratoga and just missed getting a 5th with #12 Partisan Politics on July 21st. #4 Greywalls gets a solid 88 pedigree rating for turf sprints, and #3 Zeezee Zoomzoom switches to turf for her second start after getting outrun in the mud. She is out of a dam who was a multiple stakes winner on grass.
 
Selections:  3-5-2-4
 
 
Race 6:  #2 Risky Rachel contested the pace ahead of a talented rival in Willet last time and was no match when that one came for her in the stretch.  Figures to be the main speed this time, and with that rival not going here, she may prove tough to run down.  
 
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Main threat to her will be #3 Sunny Desert, a win-machine who will be making her second start of the year after chasing the speedy La Verdad over a sloppy track back in March.  #4 Vicki's Dancer has been going well on grass recently and now switches back to dirt, a surface she handles equally well.  Ran well each of last two times she switched from turf to dirt but was unlucky to run into the undefeated Cluster of Stars both times. 
 
Selections:  2-3-4-6
 
 
Race 7:  #7 Guilty Verdict stretches out for third start of the year and figures to appreciate getting more ground to work with considering her pedigree (88 rating for dirt routes, dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner going long on dirt).  #1 Dragonberry is the horse to beat as she makes her third career start for Pletcher.  Already has had a go over this track and trip, but she came away second best that day without excuse.  #6 Illapa has disappointed on turf after getting off to a promising start.  Switch to dirt may work, as dam was a multiple graded stakes winner on the main track with earnings of over $860k.
 
Selections:  7-1-6-2
 
 
Race 8:  #3 Holiday Drama has won both turf starts vs. claiming company since being taken by these connections earlier in the year.  Drops back down for this and has the tactical speed to pull a ground-saving trip up close to the pace.  #7 First Whippoorwill takes a drop in class for second start back from the layoff after racing on gamely to be second best for $40k at Belmont.  Figures tough in this spot for trainer pulling perfect 100 ratings with runners making their second start back from a layoff and with claimers down in class.  #5 Bargaining Table went back-to-back when switched to turf at Belmont in the spring and drops back in class after finishing behind First Whippoorwill last time.  #9 Dance With Gio is competitive in here with one of her better efforts.
 
Selections:  7-3-5-9
 
 
Race 9:  With Pace Projector indicating that a fast pace is on tap for this turf sprint, we'll look for the closers to take advantage.  #5 Image of Noon will appreciate a set up, and she has come back an improved horse as a 4yo while focusing on shorter sprints. #2 My Jopia also figures to benefit from a more honest pace after getting wired by her stablemate who was loose on the lead at Belmont last time.  #3 Desert Bliss is a deep closer who needs pace to deliver her best and figures to get enough of it here.  #1 Neck of the Moon is second off the layoff for a hot trainer and eligible for better, but she was very disappointing last time and has already burned her share of cash through six lifetime starts. 
 
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Selections:  2-5-3-1
 
 
Race 10:  #8 Beauty Surprise stumbled at the start, then was bumped and carried out wide into the first turn when finishing behind #6 Winner's Legacy last time.  Has more speed than that when away cleanly, and can use it to positive effect in this field.  
 
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#9 Late Night Artist also exits that race from July 23rd, and she had to be used to get early position from her outside post before tiring late.  Took the worst of the draw once again.  #1 Quarla would be wheeling back quickly if she goes here, but figures to benefit from the drop back down to $40k.  Ran well without the cleanest of trips when falling just short at this level back in early June.  
 
Selections:  8-9-1-6
 
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