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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for July 24

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Thursday, July 24
Race 1:  Steeplechase.
Race 2:  Of the three experienced 2yos entered to go here, #6 Louisiana Brown interests us the most. He brought a game challenge to troubled Sanford runner-up Mr. Z in his debut before falling just short.  Both #3 Battle Red and #2 Revolver are eligible to step forward a bit with a race under their belts, but we were less impressed with their debut efforts.  Always have to take Pletcher firsters seriously. Therefore, #4 Bully Proof will be part of our play.  
Selections:  6-4-3-2
Race 3:  #2 Miss Electronica is lightly raced, and thus less exposed than her rather modest competition in this $40k maiden claimer. That may be reason enough to take her in here. But she also faced a much tougher group for this level in her debut. The race had a race rating of 79 (vs. today's 66) and she ran into MSW dropper Loomin' Lori Lou in that spot.  
#5 Keep Right has some angles in play, as she drops in for a tag for the first time while also turning back and switching from turf to dirt.  We would also take a long look at firster #8 Built in a Day in a field like this, as she is well-connected. Her trainer doesn't excel first-time out but did saddle Andromeda's Risk to a 41/1 upset in a maiden claiming debut earlier this year.
Selections:  2-5-8-9
Race 4:  #6 Misszippityslewda took a bad stumble at the start, then rallied gamely through some traffic late to be along for second behind a heavily favored front-running winner last time. Then she galloped out strongly after the wire. She deserves another chance.  #1A Ultimate Shopper has dangerous speed, and also has a pair of wins over this seven-furlong distance, which is as many wins as the rest of the field combined. We've always felt that #3 Lady Gracenote was better over sprint distances, so getting back to seven furlongs is a good thing for her. She has hit the board in each of her last six starts sprinting, while posting a pair of wins in those races. 
Selections:  6-1A-3-5
Race 5: With plenty of speed signed on, this turf sprint for maiden fillies figures to feature a contested pace . We're interested in giving #10 Julie's Jewelry a chance in here off the trainer change to Clement. She was well-backed for her debut and figures to handle grass, being a half-sister to Saucey Evening, a stakes winner over turf in her career.  
Our other horse will be #3 Miss Lech, who returns for Chad Brown to make what is essentially her 3yo debut. This trip may come up a little short for her. But she was a very good 2nd over seven furlongs on grass last September, and she should have some pace to close into here. 
Selections:  10-3-2-5
Race 6:  #4 Haldane has some hang in her, and it's not exactly encouraging that she has failed to be competitive at Finger Lakes recently, but she is entered at the right level today and figures to have some pace to run at.  #8 Saichi Sweepin has maintained consistent form despite winning just one of her seven starts since arriving on this circuit last September, and she has the best speed from a nice outside post.  Both #1 Bridget Moloney and #2 Bird House have become pace dependent, but we thought the former ran the better race of the two when behind front-running winner Sweet Sway at this level on June 27th. 
Selections:  4-8-1-2
Race 7:  #8 Powerful Instinct showed big improvement once switched to this barn at the end of last year, and wasn't seen to best effect when trying to close from behind a powerful front-running winner off the layoff as a new gelding.  Eligible to go forward in his second start of the year, and Pace Projector suggests he'll have the right set-up for his closing style.  #5 Captain Gaughen's gradual improvement last year as a 3yo is somewhat hidden by a pair of races against the flow last October at Belmont (up dueling a fast pace on the 3rd, and then caught behind a joke of a slow pace on the 19th).  Can do better here in his third start back, and he'll be a price. 
Selections:  8-5-11-3
Race 8:  #2 Pura Vida Zen improved to a new career top speed figure second off the claim and is now shipped straight to Saratoga by a trainer who scores a strong 96 rating with last-out winners.  Not much separating #3 Wild Kay, #6 Wholelotaroyalty and #7 Heir to Dare on recent figures, and they all have speed. 
Selections:  2-3-7-6
Race 9:  $100k Quick Call a real puzzle, with plenty of speed signed on (see Pace Projector) and only a single prior grass winner among the seven entered.  
That turf winner is #3 Escapist, who has impressed in beginning his career two-for-two, but has done so in front-running fashion, and that style may not play in this spot.  The expected pace scenario may make #2 Harpoon the one to beat, as he is one who will be running late for Pletcher, but we think #6 Glacken Too is going to benefit from the turn-back out of a fast-paced route and will take him to post a mild upset. 
Selections:  6-2-4-5
Race 10:  Have no good ideas in wide-open finale that is expected to feature a fast pace. At least #10 Little T. Louie showed some life in his turf debut last time, and he isn't expected to be looking for the early lead.  #8 All Over Me has the best credentials to this point and drops back down as the horse to beat.  #4 Bapu, who is first-time Lasix for second lifetime start, and firster #11 Chasin Chama have landed in the right kind of field, assuming they have any ability. 
Selections:  10-8-11-4 

TimeformUS Analysis Wednesday Jul 23

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Wednesday July 23
Race 1:  Steeplechase
Race 2:  2yo fillies in the first flat race of the day, so we get to see the board to kick off the Pick 4, which may not matter that much with Pletcher's #8 Overspending entered back here.  Marooned on the AE list opening day, she brought $340k at OBS March after powering through a furlong in :10 flat.  Expect her to be a short price, and to be tough to beat.  #1 Designer Soxx is a half to Designer Legs, who won the first three starts of her career as a 2yo last summer, including a roughly run edition of the Grade 2 Adirondack here via DQ.  #6 Kisses for Romeo shows up for a good debut trainer with a fast gate breeze in tow.  
Selections:  8-1-6-3
Race 3:  #4 Madaket Millie has run only on grass to this point, but Chad Brown has a history of success with horses like this switching over to dirt.  #5 Got Lucky has ability but very little speed, so is going to need some help up front, which could happen in this field as she tries her available condition for the first time.  #6 Pretty Fancy is 0-for-2 on dirt but has run well in both of those starts and has the pedigree to take on the added distance here.  #2 Equilateral impressed in winning her debut over a muddy track while earning this field's top figure, and only stepped back mildly with more distance last time. Stretches again, but Wednesday may be the right day to be on her with Got Lucky taking much of the wagering action. 
Selections:  4-5-6-2
Race 4:  #1 Wild Finish endured a pair of very tough trips when returned from a long layoff earlier this year, and had trouble once again when bounced around between horses late last time on turf; trainer has strong record going from turf to dirt (92 rating) and with horses dropping from allowance to claiming (97).  #4 Shot to Win has won two of his last three, earning speed figures of 95 and 92, which are competitive in here, and Pace Projector puts him on the lead.
#7 Santa Elf has also been in good form recently, which cannot be said for some of the others.  #2 Betweenhereandcool takes a big drop in class after a no-show effort off the layoff; his lone career sprint attempt came in his debut in a very tough field on synthetic.
Selections:  1-4-7-2
Race 5:  #2 Girlaboutown is very well-bred and comes off of a promising debut when second-best to her talented stablemate Star Grazing; eligible to improve second out, but will be tough in here even if only duplicating that effort.  #1 Kleptocrat debuted for a tag and landed in a tough spot vs. heavily favored drop-down Loomin Lori Lou, but came with a strong run through the stretch and galloped out past the wire.  #8 Pretty Like Me has run well enough in each of her three career starts, but may have to do better vs. the top one.  #4 Saharan Serenade turns back while switching back to dirt, and she finished up well last time on dirt after encountering trouble at the start.
Selections:  2-1-8-4
Race 6:  This race features #1A Artemis Agrotera, a Grade 1-winning two-year-old who was subsequently sent off at a short price in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and was burned off after racing close to a fast pace.  Drops out of another Grade 1 try in her 3yo debut, and will be a very short-priced favorite as she lines up vs. fellow NY-breds for the first time since runaway win over this track last summer.  #4 Irish Sweepstakes comes back to dirt after a pair of decent tries on turf downstate, and she also posted a big win up here as a 2yo. 
Selections:  1A-4-6-3
Race 7:  #12 Late Night Artist has run well in all 4 career starts and drops a bit off a pair of solid efforts at Churchill. She easily outfinished #1 Treaty Oak when they met on May 17th, but that one got the better of the draw for the rematch, which may be enough to reverse that decision.  
#7 All Star Kitten also drops down a bit for Chad Brown, and she was a game 3rd at Monmouth behind an impressive winner when last seen.  #10 Beauty Surprise has speed and has run well enough to win this; trainer change to Clement doesn't figure to hurt her.  That trainer also sends out first-time starter One More Song, a half to three turf winners.
Selections:  1-12-7-10
Race 8:  Solid field of $25k claimers shapes up to be a war, as the 10 entered have combined to rack up 64 wins, and several of these horses are dropping in class here.  #7 Bemata faced a strong field of allowance runners last month and couldn't impact them late while racing on through the stretch.  Win two back came easily, and he figures to have plenty of pace to close into in this spot.  #2 Haverhill endured a couple of very tough trips on the inner dirt over the winter, then was dropped down last time and was a clear 2nd-best at this level.  Trainer returned a pair of claims from off the layoff down at Belmont and they both ran well to be second at big prices, and he will also benefit from any pace that develops.  #3 Bernie the Maestro is another class-dropper, and he has run very well over this track and trip in the past. 
Selections:  7-2-5-10

Race 9:  Interesting group of 3yo fillies will contest the Grade 2 Lake George over 1 1/16 miles on turf. #3 Duff One got off to a promising start to her career here last summer, and continued on through the winter, improving her form until failing to impact a strong field in the Florida Oaks.  Must be ready off the layoff, but she's eligible to be an improved horse since laid off over four months ago, and she'll be a price.  #4 Sweet Acclaim has come up short in all three stateside starts for Chad Brown, but has taken the worst of it trip-wise all three times, and can do better with the right trip this time.  #5 Speed Seeker impressed in burying maidens up front over a demanding one-turn mile at Woodbine as if eligible to be this good.  #2 Daring Dancer was visually impressive in parlaying perfect trips into easy scores through her first three starts, then failed to show up as the favorite last time; needs to rebound. 

Selections:  3-4-5-2
Race 10:  #1 All Mine Tonight has sprinted on turf only once to this point, but that was also first time back from a layoff, and it resulted in her lone career win; attracts Castellano.  
#2 Royal Jest has also performed well in all three career turf sprint attempts and is an attractive price on the ML.  #5 The Lost Tigress switches to grass after cruising to a much-the-best maiden win off the layoff.  #8 Hot Squeeze is the horse to beat, dropping out of troubled-trip stakes attempt, but she was disappointing with a soft trip vs. NY-breds prior to that, and she may be overbet in this race. 
Selections:  1-2-5-7

TimeformUS Analysis for July 21

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for racing on Monday July 21

Race 1:  Several options to choose from in this contentious opener full of lightly raced NY-bred maidens, but we're most interested in giving #5 Cuantos a chance.  He raced greenly though kickback early before moving right up behind the impressive winner on the lead coming to the stretch; he ultimately came up empty in the stretch, but showed enough ability in there to suggest that he can improve with racing.   Our main backup in the Pick 5 will be #8 Greg's Fourwheeler, who gets a cut-back in distance after failing to impact after a wide run over a mile last time; sprint debut was promising as he was wide there, as well, but raced on gamely. 
Selections: 5-8-6-3
Race 2:  We'll keep an eye on the will-pays in an attempt to get a handle on the first-time starters, but they may have to be able to go a little if #1 Lamontagne stays in for trainer Wesley Ward; gray filly has flashed high speed in all three career starts (2 of those vs. colts), and she was given an ill-advised ride last time when pulled sharply back off the pace after leaving the gate running; has the kind of speed that can make things tough on her inexperienced rivals. 
Selections: 1-2-6-8
Race 3:  Going with speed again in race 3, as #1 Annie Walker takes the next step after finally putting together a full effort in demolition of maiden claiming company last time; Pace Projector doesn't agree that she's fastest of these early, but we think she can make the running from the rail and will benefit from the slight turn-back here.  
#5 Wraith may be the main danger, as she has run several TimeformUS Speed Figures that are faster than Annie Walker's best, but she doesn't have much speed, and this race may not come back to her.
Selections:  1-5-2-3
Race 4:  Toughest race in this Pick 5 sequence here, as 11 maiden claimers line up to go seven furlongs without a standout in the group.  Think there's a chance that drop-downs #4 Tony B and #6 Artemus Paperboy hook up early and hurt each other, but they also may just be better than their somewhat modest competition here.  We're most interested in #5 Wild Skye as an alternative to them, as he raced very greenly in both prior starts, and his lack of professionalism really cost him last time. 
Selections:  4-6-5-11



Race 5:  Field full of hard-hitting turf sprinters is open to several, but we're going to cast our lot with #8 Isn'tlovejustgrand, who has been holding strong form since being switched back to grass; parlayed a perfect trip into a win over a salty group of $40k claimers two starts back, and he was dead-game with an aggressive ride contesting the pace going longer last time. 

Selections:  8-4-3-5
Race 6:  #1 Make Your Point remained a disappointment on the main track but ran a better race last time with blinkers on, chasing a very fast pace up the backstretch before inheriting an early lead and then weakening late from her early exertions; turf start two back was only OK at a big price, but that race has produced three horses who have won a race since.  
#3 Fire Ship switched to turf for the first time in career start #9 and found herself hooked into a fast duel early, and was swallowed up by the closers once she put her early rival away; with the pace of that race taken into account, she actually ran the top last TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field, and may be the horse to beat in this weak $40k maiden claimer. We've tried #4 Dixie Gem in the past at big prices, and her turf debut actually wasn't a poor effort at a big price; offered nothing last time, but gets a class drop for this.  #7 Burndownthetown has the pedigree to be a runner, but has so far offered little on the track; dropping in vs. maiden claimers may help.  
Selections:  1-3-4-7
Race 7:  Seen enough of the familiar names in this field lately, and want a new face to try against them.  Most interested in trying #9 Dreamsgonewild off the layoff, as he will offer value.  #11 With Exultation once had promise for Christophe Clement, and has run a couple of good races recently out of town with new blinkers; maybe he just wanted to sprint all along?  #10 Sandy'z Slew is logical as the horse to beat; ran well enough when back to turf-sprinting last time, but that was a race that really held together up front.  We like #6 Western Tryst, who needs some pace to run into, but want a good price in order to use.
Selections: 9-11-10-6
Race 8:  Short but strong field assembled for this $100k stakes, which attracted three Grade 1 winners among the six entered.  If you're looking for an alternative to the more accomplished runners, #3 Bridgehampton has the speed and ran a big race when last seen at Parx, running away from a challenge coming to the stretch and getting clear to a much-the-best win; she has upside, and Pace Projector puts her on the lead to advantage here, but has never been beyond six furlongs.  #4 My Miss Aurelia could easily have been retired with her value as a broodmare already established with three Grade 1 wins, so the fact that she returns to the track suggests that she has something left.  #2 Grace Hall hasn't won a race since the end of her three-year-old season, but she never got going at four, and is now third back from the layoff; not so sure that turning back to shorter races going forward won't suit her well.
Selections:  3-4-2-1
Race 9:  Strong-looking $40k claimer restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime features a trio of well-connected droppers drawn toward the inside in #1 Branded Hand, #3 Belly of the Whale, and #4 Honor the Kitten.  We'll put Honor the Kitten on top for now, but realistically, price should determine where your money should go.  #10 H Town Brown just took a field of $50k maiden claimers wire to wire, and his speed is an asset, but these connections have been getting way overbet since the meet began.
Selections:  4-3-1-10

TimeformUS Analysis Sunday July 20

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Sunday July 20th

Race 1: Have some guessing to do in the opener, but the board will be on display for Pick 5 purposes.  #1 G R's Giant goes for an underrated debut trainer, and he has attracted Castellano.   #6 Tax Package is logical for a win-early outfit, and he shows some solid works in his line-up.  Won't dismiss the Pletcher firster, #7 Sandler, too quickly, and #4 Desert Million brought $100k as a yearling for owner/trainer Tony Dutrow.
Selections:  1-6-7-4
Race 2:  Wide-open $20k claimer may hold the key to the early card multi-race wagers, as there is the potential for an oddball result here, whether it winds up playing out that way or not.  We'll use whichever half of the Jacobson entry starts, though #1 Cease has been disappointing of late and takes a negative class drop, and #1A Groomedforvictory, while the best horse in the race, has never wanted to go this far.  We'll include horses like #4 Most Happy Fella, who is also dropping and who, along with Cease, is already a multiple winner over this track and trip; and #6 Matt and Jesse, who needs pace to run into and may get it here. 
Selections:  4-1-6-2
Race 3:  #1 Mariel N Kathy didn't get to the early lead last time, and never had a fair chance after that, steadying on the first turn and then getting shuffled back to last exiting the second turn; she is at her best when able to get to the front, and our Pace Projector indicates that she will easily get there in this race, which is going to make her tough.
We're going to key on her in the multi-race exotics on the early part of this card, and will relegate #6 Maximova to backup status, along with #3 Gathering.  
Selections: 1-6-3-5




















Race 4:  This race has a different pace scenario in store, as any or all of #1 Carolinian, #2 Ten Items or Less, and #4 Glickman could be showing early speed in here.  We think that plays mostly to the advantage of #3 Lieutenant Seany O, who gets a turn-back in distance to go along with his substantial class drop.  Both #5 Denzel and #7 In the Dark are also eligible to take advantage in here, but Lieutenant Seany O is a better horse than those two.  
Selections:  3-4-5-7
Race 5:
Short but solid field of turf sprinters is assembled for the $100k Lucky Coin, and we are interested in #5 Go Blue Or Go Home in this spot.  He has made only five starts sprinting on turf to this point and has won three of those, with the losses coming over a demanding seven furlongs through that long stretch at Woodbine vs. Grade 2 company, and in the Grade 3 Shakertown earlier this year off the layoff.  #2 Strong Impact is a gamer, and he may have been wheeled back too quickly off of his stakes win out of town last time. 
Race 6:  #2 Lay It Down won the first 4 turf races he ran in after being claimed by this outfit, and has landed in a pair of very tough spots since returned to grass recently; this appears to be a well-meant class drop.  #9 Dreaming of Danny got bet and ended a long losing streak for Rudy at this level downstate; figures to have some pace to close into once again.  #8 Assured Victory had turf sprint return washed off to the main track; returns to grass, with more distance attached for second start back, and has races that make him competitive.  #3 Treasury Devil, like the top one, is getting significant class relief.
Selections:  2-9-8-3
Race 7:  #7 T Sizzle had debut rained off to dirt, and ran well that day giving game chase to a favored winner; full brother to Purely Hot, a multiple stakes winner over synthetic and 2-for-4 lifetime on grass, figures to appreciate the surface switch.  Both #1 Hidden Candy and #9 Eighty Three are interesting firsters.  #2 Eternal Bull improved with the switch to turf last time, and he has dangerous speed.
Selections:  7-2-1-9
Race 8:  Difficult to trust anyone in this statebred route, but #6 Sir Leslie has been in good form since switched to dirt, and has run the best recent races.  #8 Ultimate Empire finished first in both races over this distance last summer, and will be tough if able to get back to one of those efforts; hasn't been seen in the same form recently.  #5 Fiona's Hero has improved since switched to this barn, and shows a recent two-turn win out of town.  
Selections:  6-8-5-1
Race 9:  #5 Silky ran very well in her stateside debut despite a tough trip, and then faced a tough task having to get 1 1/2 miles off the layoff last time.  #11 Crown Queen took a step forward making 3yo debut after running better than it may appear last year; much upside here.  #2 Abbey Street has picked up her game since the trainer change; ran very well to be second best last time after no-chance trip two back.
Selections:  5-11-2-1
Race 10:  #6 Taketheodds has improved with added distance, and still figures to have the most upside in this field.  Trainer tends to keep them going the right way once he gets them good, and her pedigree suggests that more distance will not be her undoing.  #2 Unbridled Forever will appreciate getting away from Untapable in a graded stakes race; was ok when a no-threat 3rd going shorter last time, and should also handle stretching back out.  #1 Stopchargingmaria is the lone graded stakes winner in the field (she's won 3), and the lone winner over 9 furlongs, but her speed figures so far this year give her no edge on this field.
Selections:  6-2-1-5
Race 11:  #3 Wake Up and Go finished a game second at this level last time after taking a wide trip as the winner controlled the pace; faces a Chad Brown MSW dropper in here, but got the best of the draw.  #11 Hushhushmushmush is taking a needed, and not negative, class drop after coming up short in 5 attempts at the MSW level.  
Selections:  3-11-9-12