Saturday, July 19, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
TimeformUS Analysis for Sunday July 20th
Race 1: Have some guessing to do in the opener, but the board will be on display for Pick 5 purposes. #1 G R's Giant goes for an underrated debut trainer, and he has attracted Castellano. #6 Tax Package is logical for a win-early outfit, and he shows some solid works in his line-up. Won't dismiss the Pletcher firster, #7 Sandler, too quickly, and #4 Desert Million brought $100k as a yearling for owner/trainer Tony Dutrow.
Race 2: Wide-open $20k claimer may hold the key to the early card multi-race wagers, as there is the potential for an oddball result here, whether it winds up playing out that way or not. We'll use whichever half of the Jacobson entry starts, though #1 Cease has been disappointing of late and takes a negative class drop, and #1A Groomedforvictory, while the best horse in the race, has never wanted to go this far. We'll include horses like #4 Most Happy Fella, who is also dropping and who, along with Cease, is already a multiple winner over this track and trip; and #6 Matt and Jesse, who needs pace to run into and may get it here.
Race 3: #1 Mariel N Kathy didn't get to the early lead last time, and never had a fair chance after that, steadying on the first turn and then getting shuffled back to last exiting the second turn; she is at her best when able to get to the front, and our Pace Projector indicates that she will easily get there in this race, which is going to make her tough.
We're going to key on her in the multi-race exotics on the early part of this card, and will relegate #6 Maximova to backup status, along with #3 Gathering.
Race 4: This race has a different pace scenario in store, as any or all of #1 Carolinian, #2 Ten Items or Less, and #4 Glickman could be showing early speed in here. We think that plays mostly to the advantage of #3 Lieutenant Seany O, who gets a turn-back in distance to go along with his substantial class drop. Both #5 Denzel and #7 In the Dark are also eligible to take advantage in here, but Lieutenant Seany O is a better horse than those two.
Short but solid field of turf sprinters is assembled for the $100k Lucky Coin, and we are interested in #5 Go Blue Or Go Home in this spot. He has made only five starts sprinting on turf to this point and has won three of those, with the losses coming over a demanding seven furlongs through that long stretch at Woodbine vs. Grade 2 company, and in the Grade 3 Shakertown earlier this year off the layoff. #2 Strong Impact is a gamer, and he may have been wheeled back too quickly off of his stakes win out of town last time.
Race 6: #2 Lay It Down won the first 4 turf races he ran in after being claimed by this outfit, and has landed in a pair of very tough spots since returned to grass recently; this appears to be a well-meant class drop. #9 Dreaming of Danny got bet and ended a long losing streak for Rudy at this level downstate; figures to have some pace to close into once again. #8 Assured Victory had turf sprint return washed off to the main track; returns to grass, with more distance attached for second start back, and has races that make him competitive. #3 Treasury Devil, like the top one, is getting significant class relief.
Race 7: #7 T Sizzle had debut rained off to dirt, and ran well that day giving game chase to a favored winner; full brother to Purely Hot, a multiple stakes winner over synthetic and 2-for-4 lifetime on grass, figures to appreciate the surface switch. Both #1 Hidden Candy and #9 Eighty Three are interesting firsters. #2 Eternal Bull improved with the switch to turf last time, and he has dangerous speed.
Race 8: Difficult to trust anyone in this statebred route, but #6 Sir Leslie has been in good form since switched to dirt, and has run the best recent races. #8 Ultimate Empire finished first in both races over this distance last summer, and will be tough if able to get back to one of those efforts; hasn't been seen in the same form recently. #5 Fiona's Hero has improved since switched to this barn, and shows a recent two-turn win out of town.
Race 9: #5 Silky ran very well in her stateside debut despite a tough trip, and then faced a tough task having to get 1 1/2 miles off the layoff last time. #11 Crown Queen took a step forward making 3yo debut after running better than it may appear last year; much upside here. #2 Abbey Street has picked up her game since the trainer change; ran very well to be second best last time after no-chance trip two back.
Race 10: #6 Taketheodds has improved with added distance, and still figures to have the most upside in this field. Trainer tends to keep them going the right way once he gets them good, and her pedigree suggests that more distance will not be her undoing. #2 Unbridled Forever will appreciate getting away from Untapable in a graded stakes race; was ok when a no-threat 3rd going shorter last time, and should also handle stretching back out. #1 Stopchargingmaria is the lone graded stakes winner in the field (she's won 3), and the lone winner over 9 furlongs, but her speed figures so far this year give her no edge on this field.
Race 11: #3 Wake Up and Go finished a game second at this level last time after taking a wide trip as the winner controlled the pace; faces a Chad Brown MSW dropper in here, but got the best of the draw. #11 Hushhushmushmush is taking a needed, and not negative, class drop after coming up short in 5 attempts at the MSW level.