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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for July 30

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Wednesday, July 30
Race 1:  Steeplechase
Race 2:  Maiden claimer for NY-bred fillies over 9 furlongs shapes up to be a battle of attrition, as none of the entrants has ever been this far, and competitive form is hard to come by.  We'll try #4 Confessa on top.  She has never run on dirt, but drops in class for a talented young trainer, and her unraced dam is a half-sister to a multiple graded stakes winner on dirt.  #2 Kelly's Prize also drops, and she flashed some speed when tried on dirt back in May.  She may be the horse to beat for a trainer who gets 100 rating (from a limited sample) with horses making this class drop.
Selections:  4-2-5-1
Race 3:  Just six NY-bred fillies for this sprint, but three of them are multiple stakes winners.  #6 Willet is the horse to beat as she makes her second start back after giving game chase to the speedy (and loose) La Verdad last time.  She's perfectly drawn outside, and while she has come up short more often than not over this track, she has been victimized by tough trips more than once.  #4 Galiana is the main danger, especially if showing up with an effort similar to her last, where she flat overpowered a good horse in Winning Image.  #2 Risky Rachel has a race in her that would be plenty good enough, but we haven't seen one of those from her recently.  
Selections:  6-4-2-3
Race 4:  #3 Rock Me Mama drops in class while also getting a turn-back in distance here. Both figure to help, and the fact that her last two races have earned her TimeformUS Speed Figures that are faster than anything her competitors have ever run doesn't hurt. Pace Projector indicates that the race shape will favor runners on or near the early lead and places Rock Me Mama right up with the pace.  
#4 Da Wildcat Girl parlayed a perfect trip into a game score vs. restricted claimers downstate, and then finished gamely again at Delaware last time.  Pace scenario doesn't figure to flatter her closing style.  #2 Chase My Tail has run well in all three dirt starts since being switched to this barn, but faces tougher here in the form of the top two.  #5 Dash to the Flash has dangerous speed as she cuts back in distance off the claim, and she has won each of her last three starts over fast dirt.  
Selections:  3-4-2-5
Race 5:  Full field of 2yo NY-bred maiden fillies sprints 5 furlongs on the dirt. It may pay to check the scratches, as #9 Zo Zo was bet hard and then was caught up in some traffic before giving way in the stretch of her debut.  She returns with blinkers-on for a trainer who has been deadly with second-time-starting maidens at Saratoga in the past.  Should she not get in, the other entrant with experience, #3 Yourcreditisgood, may be tough. She was caught up in a wide trip chasing a front-running winner in her debut.  Of the firsters, #1 Myfourchix is by precocious sire Henny Hughes, and her trainer, Rick Schosberg, was once an ace with first-time starters.  #4 Perfect Freud is out of the mare Platinum Perfect, who won 7 of 10 career starts over fast dirt and made over $220k in her career.
Selections:  9-3-1-4
Race 6:  Interesting $25k claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs.  #3 My Tee Time shows up from Suffolk Downs with a pair of fast races in tow off the claim.  If she runs one of those races in this spot, she will find herself in the winner's circle again.  Assuming she is unable to put up a performance like that at Saratoga, #8 Kelwynne has faced better out of town in the form of 14-time winner Conga Bella and the speedy Here's Zealicious (see Race 3).  #1 Mama Zee has some fast races of her own, and she is dropping out of a stakes try at Monmouth.  #5 My Donna Jean has picked up her game since being claimed by Eddie Barker and can turn things around if My Tee Time and Mama Zee go after each other early. She was compromised by racing behind a moderate pace three back, and had little chance behind a blowout winner last time.  
Selections:  8-3-1-5
Race 7:  #4 Ear D' Rhythm found a couple of tough spots upon her return from an extended layoff. But she was rallying through the stretch last time before being wiped out by a spill, and she found the right kind of field here on the drop.  The trip didn't work out for #8 Wine Burglar last time. She took an inside tracking trip as the longshot winner was allowed to rate on an easy lead, and she was ultimately trapped behind horses through the stretch with nowhere to run.  She fits very well here. #7 Sundae School looks like the third horse to use.
Selections:  4-8-7-6
Race 8:  #11 Love You Loads made a promising debut at Gulfstream back at the beginning of the year, and appeared to break through when burying a pair of next-out winners last out.  #3 Momentary Magic has been all potential to this point and won't get many more chances to deliver, but she lost all chance at the start when returned from the layoff and then endured a tough four-wide trip chasing a wire-to-wire winner last time.  #6 La Madrina is the ML favorite, but we'll try to beat her as she has been with the flow in both starts so far, closing into a fast duel first time out and keeping close to a walking pace last time.  
Selections:  11-3-6-4
Race 9:  Coronation Cup three-year-old fillies sprinting on turf may have a different look come post time, as several of these hold entries to other races, and four in the main body have never raced on grass and may be looking for this race to come off.  As of this writing, a fast pace is projected, which figures to help out top pick #7 Stars Above Me.  She will be first-time lasix for her stateside debut, and she earned positive marks from Timeform overseas, their analysts expecting her to appreciate shorter trips and quicker paces.  
Selections:  7-5-1-4
Race 10:  #11 Candir gets positive rider and trainer changes for the switch to turf, and he is expected to step forward on this surface as his half-brother, Al Khali, is a multiple graded stakes winner on grass with over $1 million in the bank.  Firster #2 All the Way is a half-brother to a three-time winner on grass, and his dam is a sister to Academy Award, Good Mood and Statuette, all graded stakes winners on grass.  #5 Same As is the first foal from Lucky Copy, who was a stakes winner on grass while racing for this trainer a few years ago. 
Selections: 11-2-5-4

TimeformUS Analysis Monday July 28

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis For Monday July 28

Race 1:  We'll see what happens with the grass races Monday, as we're off the turf Sunday and there is a sketchy forecast for the immediate future.  With that in mind, we will cover a couple of bases at the same time in the opener by going to #2 Point Hope, who ran well enough going a longer route on turf last time while contesting a pace that
came apart late. He has plenty of dirt in his pedigree.  #7 Are We Not Men has run well in all three turf starts, and done so despite a couple of very tough trips.  He starts for a dangerous trainer and will appreciate the slight class drop.
Selections:  2-7-5-4
Race 2:  First-time starters scheduled to sprint 5.5 furlongs on grass. As a starting point,
#3 Coastal Zip is a City Zip and a half-brother to three turf winners.  #4 Banana Thief is bred long but debuts short with a fast recent gate work showing.  #7 Amazing Anne has several winning siblings and is from a female family full of versatile runners, so surface may not be much of an issue for him.  If we're off the grass, MTO #10 Good Luck Gus made a promising debut and would be very hard to beat.
Selections:  10-3-4-7
Race 3:  Seems like a good spot for #5 Southern Blessing to get back on track, assuming he catches fast dirt, which would be the first time he's had that footing while sprinting vs. non-graded stakes company since his winning debut.  #6 Indian Nobility should also benefit from the class relief, and he ran a couple of competitive figures last summer before coming up here and finding some tougher spots.  #2 Mr. O'Leary ran a trio of TFUS Speed Figures earlier in the year that make him something of a layover in here, and Pace Projector indicates that he'll be at an early advantage in this race, but he's a very short price on the ML, and just isn't that good.
Selections:  5-6-2-1
Race 4:   #1 Bold Runner gets a major upgrade in rider, which is unlikely to go unnoticed in here, but he was burned off by very fast paces in each of his turf starts downstate and may be quite a bit better than he looks.  #11 Delta Warrior caught traffic at a crucial point when closing into a fast pace last time out, and continued on with a good finish to get second once finally clear.  Can be given another chance. #10 Secret Ops has excuses for both of his dirt races (something to keep in mind should we be off the turf), and he had runoff speed in his turf debut before trouble at the start last time. 
Race 5:  #5 Citizen Wells has scratched a couple times downstate recently, and now shows up for a $20k tag, which isn't necessarily the greatest sign in the world for him. He likes the distance and likes this track. His trainer is a going concern at Saratoga, but we will tread lightly.  For the purposes of this Pick 3 sequence, we will also cover #1 Village Warrior and #2 Best Play, as they figure to have no issues with the trip.
Selections:  5-1-3-4



Race 6:  #3 Forest Boy figures dangerous as the fastest horse on our speed figures (he's earned TFUS Speed Figures of 98 and 100 sprinting in California), and the combination of class drop/trainer change won't hurt.  #5 Pulpit's Legacy is a bit of a wildcard as he returns from a long layoff after losing all chance at the start of loaded debut race here last summer.  #2 Pecorino figures over-bet as the Pletcher class dropper in the field, but he hasn't proven to be that good after catching a couple of tough fields here as a 2yo.
Selections:  3-5-2-6
Race 7:  #7 Father Johns Pride kicked on gamely in a good field when sprinting on the turf for the first time last month; will be tough with a similar effort in here.  #12 Casa Creek was rated into submission behind a front-running winner on turf last time, and that came on the heels of a much-the-best win after dueling on synthetic.  Has other speed to deal with, but he's drawn outside.  If we're off the turf, #5 Spartiatis is at his best playing that game, which he has only gotten to do once.
Selections:  7-12-6-1
Race 8:  Plenty of speed signed on to this strong edition of the Grade 2 Honorable Miss, including the horse to beat, #1 La Verdad.  She's very quick early and has posted a couple of 120+ TFUS Speed Figures recently, which make her the clear horse to beat. She also figures to be under pressure from speedy rivals like #3 R Free Roll and, perhaps, #4 Red Velvet.  #7 My Wandy's Girl defeated La Verdad on the square in the Barbara Fritchie over 7 furlongs back in February, and she took a tough beat after doing all of the heavy lifting in the Grade 2 Ruffian last time.  Six furlongs could make the difference, but she will be tough to hold off.  #2 Speedinthruthecity is 5-for-7 as a dirt
sprinter in her career, and also figures to benefit if a contested pace develops.
Selections:  7-2-1-5
Race 9:  #9 Romancing the Gold was embroiled in a fast pace duel when defeated by the closing #6 Mr. Espresso and #8 Bedouin Now in his first start off the Jacobson claim, and he got back to a good race last time.  Won over this distance here last summer, and that came over a wet track.  #3 Zoebear and #5 Rap d'Oro seem the most dangerous rivals, but distance is more of a concern for them.
Selections:  9-5-3-8



TimeformUS Analysis For July 27

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Sunday, July 27

Race 1:  2yos will go long on turf in the first leg of the Pick 5. There are several interesting pedigrees in this well-connected group.  #1 Sunday Sonnet has valuable experience earned during a solid try in a strong dirt sprint. And she has pedigree to go with it. She's a half to Pianist, a multiple graded stakes winner on grass who earned almost $500k in her career.  #3 Miss Always Ready is a full sister to Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner More Than Real, who was also trained by Todd Pletcher.  #6 Bebop Raindrop (out of a sister to Grade 1-winning turfer Cloudy's Knight) and #7 Skinner Box (dam is a half-sister to a Breeders' Cup Turf winner) are NY-breds debuting in open company. 
Selections:  1-6-3-7
Race 2:  #5 Hit Squad endured back-to-back tough trips out of town before coming to NY to post a much-the-best win over a weak field at the end of May.  Faced a much tougher crew last time (race rating of 95, vs. today's 84) but fits better here.  
#6 Flamingo Lane has gone back to back since switching over to grass recently; continues her climb.  #8 Edie has also won two in a row, with the benefit of perfect trips. She defeated a few of these on the square last time.
Selections:  5-6-8-1
Race 3:  More 2yos lining up here, several of them first-time starters.  #5 High Dollar Woman has valuable experience after running in a strongly rated race downstate. (Winner Angele Renee, a full sister to multiple Grade 1 winner To Honor and Serve, earned a 93 TFUS Speed Figure.)  Her trainer excels with second-time starters (99 trainer rating).  Pletcher has entered a pair, and they would be difficult to leave out of any multi-race play, as he tends to send them out ready.  #2 Skipalute also has a race under her belt, and her trainer is another who gets them to come forward off of a race (100 rating with second-time starters).  #3 Paulassilverlining is a half to Grade 1 sprinter Dads Caps, and her trainer has already sent out a winning 2yo first-time starter at the meet.
Selections:  5-2-4-3
Race 4:  #4 De Facto is a lightly raced colt who has been improving from start to start for his Hall of Fame trainer.  Went long on dirt last time and could be only second-best to an odds-on favorite, but won't need to go forward much further to be a big player in this field, and he holds a strong pedigree rating for this distance on turf.  #3 Decisive Edge and #5 Social Affair are the two logical horses in this field, and they have run well enough without winning to this point and don't figure to struggle with the distance.  
Selections:  4-5-3-1
Race 5:  #5 First Whippoorwill drops again after finishing gamely to be second-best when first off the layoff last time, and figures to be the one to beat.  
#4 Swakopmund is also dropping, and is a very dangerous horse for First Whippoorwill to have to run against in this spot.  She has run well on turf vs. much better horses throughout her career and will be a better price in this spot.  #1 Lady Candidate is back to grass off the claim, but she's been at her best on synthetic to this point, and she did not run well when last seen while dropping in for $20k.
Selections:  5-4-1-8
Race 6:  This race goes directly through #5 Dyker Beach, who has run the fastest races, and earned a TFUS Speed Figure for his last that stands out in this field.  On the other hand, he is a horse who has lacked the killer instinct at crunch time and is a difficult horse to support at any short price.  As an alternative, we'll take #6 Charitable to post a mild upset.  Charitable was dropping in class last time in a race that was scheduled for turf before being moved to the main track.  He was very surprisingly bet down to a short price in there, and then went out and made the $5.10 payout look like a gift as he rolled through the stretch to win by over seven lengths.  
Selections:  6-5-1-8
Race 7:  No one to trust in this $25k claimer restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime.  The12 entered for turf have combined to make 103 starts over this surface while posting only 9 wins total.  #1 My Four Rewards makes her third start off the layoff, and exits a race last time that was won in wire-to-wire fashion.  Ran well in a much tougher claimer here last summer, which is good enough for us.  We liked the turf debut of #4 Outer Orbit last time, as she made a legitimate pace all the way and stayed gamely to the end.  Pace Projector indicates that this pace scenario may be tough for her if trying similar tactics.  
We have tried both #6 Dramatize and #9 Eurokay by Me in the past, and have not been rewarded.  Still, they are supposed to be competitive in here.  #7 Sultry Warrior and #11 Tacones are the class-droppers to consider very seriously in a field like this.
Selections:  1-7-6-9
Race 8:  #1 Night Maneuver has some fast back races to get to and has proven recently that he can still race competitively at a high level.  Think he may have been hindered by rating inside last time on a day when being on the rail may not have been ideal.  #2 River Rocks posted a new top TFUS Speed Figure when forced to chase a fast pace in his NY debut.  #8 Eastwood is the horse to beat from a good draw for Pletcher, but he's been a bust since being purchased for a big ticket upon winning his first two career starts.  He exits a fast race, but he had absolutely no excuse in there.
Selections:  1-8-2-4
Race 9:  #2 Flashy American goes well over this track and trip, and she ran very well to be second-best in this race last year despite getting no pace to run into.  May have been unlucky two back when stuck wide throughout as the winner rode the rail to victory.  #5 Stanwyck goes for a suddenly hot barn, and she has been facing the best company overall recently.  She loomed boldly at the top of the stretch of the Grade 1 Apple Blossom before flattening out behind a pair of multiple Grade 1 winners.  #3 Antipathy earned a big 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her excellent third place finish in a very tough edition of the Ogden Phipps on Belmont Stakes day.  She's unlikely to lose if running as well again, but we'll make her do it as she picks up more ground and a second turn here.
Selections:  2-5-3-4
Race 10:  #9 Chrysolite went evenly while down inside all the way in a race dominated by outside closers last time, and she came with a big run to close down maidens two starts back.  Still think she has upside in a field lacking many horses that can boast the same.  #3 Thatza Wrap is clearly a better horse on turf, and is another who can capitalize on her upside in this spot.  She was conservatively ridden in her last start and wound up getting shuffled back out of position at a crucial point.
Selections:  9-3-4-10

TimeformUS Analysis for July 26

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Saratoga Analysis for Saturday, July 26
Race 1:  #5 Rapid Repair hasn't run on turf in five months, when she was unable to get forward position and wound up stuck behind a moderate pace.  She has improved her form on the main track since returning from a short layoff, and her new-found speed on that surface could serve her well here after scratching from a much tougher spot on Friday's card to await this.  #6 Engaginglee has blown a trio of very good trips on turf already, all of them at short prices; tries again.  #8 Smart Ashley has a similar profile to Engaginglee, as she has settled for minor awards so far while taking some play.  
Selections:  5-6-1-8
Race 2:  #2 Blue Pigeon may be the horse to beat in this entry-level allowance for NY-breds, as he hinted at potential last year at two for Christophe Clement.  A much-the-best winner over this track in his debut, he went straight into stakes company from there.
#3 Macagone is an interesting alternative to the likely favorite, as he has excuses for his first three starts, and took no prisoners in a convincing maiden score last time.  #1 Sanctify began his career in good form on the dirt, but his pedigree suggests turf may be better for him, and he ran well over a shorter distance on this surface downstate.  #7 Hidden Vow has the fastest races to get to, and if he runs the same race today that he ran two back, he's a likely winner, but he's just 1-for-22 lifetime and was a total no-show last time.  
Selections:  3-2-1-7
Race 3:  Loaded baby race will be an interesting race to keep tabs on for future reference, no matter who wins.  For the purposes of making picks, we'll put #8 Aldrin, a $1 million 3/4 brother to Tapit, on top.  #9 Competitive Edge has been mentioned as a runner for Pletcher, but he needs to draw in off the AE list.  Both #3 Today's Agenda (a $180k Monba?) and #5 Captain Moss (by Quality Road and out of a strong female family) have things to recommend them as well.  
Selections:  8-9-5-3
Race 4:  This is not the kind of race you want to be taking a short price in, as these horses have already blown too many chances.  #1 Vecino is a logical kind of horse, and he didn't run badly at Pimlico two starts back, but we can't love him from a wagering perspective at projected low odds.  If we were to take a shot at a price, it would be with #2 Sir Maurice, who is best as a turf sprinter and ran the best last race of any of these.  
Selections:  2-1-4-6
Race 5:  #2 Rocket Time is very lightly raced and has to stretch out a bit here, but he has flashed real potential and is an interesting horse in a race where the others have already been exposed for the most part.  He raced very greenly in his debut after breaking slowly, and was within a length of #3 C J's Awesome at the finish despite trying to get in all the way through the stretch.  He looked a little better last time when taking it to maidens in a powerful front-running performance, but was still a little immature in the stretch.  #1 Rankhasprivileges has kept good company and has the two fastest recent races, which makes him the horse to beat.  #4 Golden Soul hasn't gone forward since parlaying a perfect inside run (and a monumental pace meltdown) into a runner-up finish in the 2013 Kentucky Derby, and will likely be an underlay with all of those Grade 1 running lines still appearing in his pps.
Selections:  2-1-5-4
Race 6:  Tough turf marathon for $35k claimers.  We are going to try #4 Knights Nation here on the class drop, as things just didn't go well for him once he didn't get his customary spot up on or near the lead last time.  He has already won over this distance on dirt, and he may also have been best in his lone try over this trip on grass.  #1 Capitan Futuro will need to be fit to go this far directly off of a long layoff, but he's proven to be a true stayer since arriving stateside, and he's faced much better competition than this.  
Selections:  4-1-2-5
Race 7:  Entry-level allowance for older sprinters has no shortage of speed signed on, which we hope plays to the advantage of #5 Rich 'n' Tuck.  He got untracked too late last time, when closing strongly with too far to come in the stretch, but he has been a dead-game closer in his three dirt sprints on this circuit, and he may get the right set-up today.  #10 Fabulous Kid is a dangerous horse getting back to what may be his best game today after trying routes and turf lately.  Sprint debut was fast, and he drew well on the outside.  
Selections:  5-10-1-3
Race 8:  Late Pick 4 with a $300k guarantee kicks off here with the Grade 2 Amsterdam. #4 Coup de Grace is the horse to beat after running down a pair of speedy rivals in Delaware prep for new trainer.  He had less-than-perfect trips in each of his two NY graded stakes tries and still managed to win one of those, but doesn't have much margin for error. We think that #8 Captain Serious poses a real threat to him ,however, and will take him on top at what should be a better price.  He has put his handy speed to work through three sprint starts to this point, traveling well from off of a fast pace in his debut, then stalking a more moderate pace in start number two, before taking control up front in the Mike Lee and pouring it on late in a convincing win.  105 speed figure for his excellent runner-up performance going longer last time is better than anything Coup de Grace has earned so far.  
Selections:  8-4-6-3
Race 9:  Both #1 Run to Mama and #2 Palace Dreams are returning from layoffs here, but they both flashed real ability last year at three, and are going to be big factors in here if ready to go right off the bench.  Palace Dreams has more speed, and Pace Projector places her on the early lead, but Run to Mama will likely be a much better price.  
#5 Distorted Beauty may be the most talented of this bunch.  She's lightly raced and will stretch out for the first time today in a tough spot, but it will be no surprise if she is this good.  
Selections:  1-2-5-6
Race 10: The strength of this Jim Dandy field is drawn to the outside, with Belmont winner #4 Tonalist, the improving #5 Kid Cruz, and #7 Wicked Strong the major players. Tonalist has long felt like the up-and-comer in this division, and he scored back-to-back impressive victories once back to the races following a setback earlier in the year, including that Belmont Stakes upset when losing a lot of ground.  Wicked Strong was unlucky in the Derby, and he figures to appreciate this shorter distance after racing on gamely late over the 1 1/2 miles last time.  Kid Cruz isn't fully committed to running as of this writing, and faces a stern test should they elect to run him.  
Selections:  4-7-5-6
Race 11:  #11 Tapitation got the wrong ride in his turf debut back in May, and actually did quite well to finish second that day.  He deserves another chance on this surface, though post 11 is no bargain.  #6 Elroi has come back in improved form this year and will appreciate the cut-back from a longer route.  #9 Birchwood Road will be looking for firm ground for the first time since convincing maiden score at the end of last year, and he gets an interesting trainer change for this. 
Selections:  11-6-9-2