by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 6: 6 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 7: 2 - 8 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 11 - 10 - 3
Race 9: 7 - 3 - 4 - 8
RACE 3: ARISTOCRATIC (#3)
Likely favorite Happy Farm drops down to the lowest claiming tag he’s tried since he hit his peak for Jason Servis back in 2019. He’s actually run some nice races for other trainers since then, but he’s had trouble staying on the track, needing plenty of time between starts. This gelding threw in a rare bad effort last time for Wayne Potts, though he was facing a much tougher field. He now goes out for Rudy Rodriguez, who is 28 for 88 (32%, $2.06 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. Happy Farm should sit a good stalking trip just off the speedy Aristocratic, and will be tough with his good effort. He’ll be a much shorter price than the other two class droppers in this race. Mr Phil and Free Enterprise are both dropping down after facing some tougher fields in their recent past. I liked some of Free Enterprise’s form from last year, but his most recent effort at Finger Lakes was poor. That said, Jeffrey Englehart’s runners have been firing lately at this meet. I’m going with the likely leader. Aristocratic is moving back up in class after winning off the claim for Charlton Baker last time. That was a very game effort, as he set an honest pace and held sway late. Yet it did come against weaker company, so he likely has to improve again on the class rise. Charlton Baker is in the midst of a strong meet, and this horse has back races that fit at this level. He did go off form for much of 2021, but was in a low-percentage barn during that time. He appears to be the controlling speed and he isn’t one to give up without a fight, as he showed last time.
WIN: #3 Aristocratic, at 2-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #4 Mr Phil or #5 Free Enterprise if greater than 9-2
RACE 4: REGAL EMPIRE (#3)
Rob Atras holds a strong hand in this bottom-level maiden claimer, sending out the two likely favorites. Infeasible could attract support merely because he’s dropping in class out of maiden special weight races. He really hasn’t show much ability in his two prior starts, but he does have a right to improve against weaker competition as one of the more lightly raced members of this field. He’s clearly not living up to his pedigree, as a half-brother to Tiz the Law, but he’s placed at an appropriate level this time. Eddie the Great should appreciate getting back out to a mile after failing at shorter distances. He ran well racing two-wide against a rail bias first off the claim for Atras on Jan. 16 and a repeat of that effort arguably makes him the horse to beat. However, I think he’ll be a fairly short price as well and I just don’t fully trust him. I want to go for a bigger price with a different dropdown. Regal Empire goes out for low-profile connections, but his recent form puts him right on par with the favorites in this race. He had no chance in his starts two and three back when beaten by vastly superior foes, including that open maiden loss on Feb. 3. He wasn’t much of a factor last time when stretched out to 9 furlongs, but that’s probably too far for him. Now he’s dropping down in class to the right level, and most of his recent dirt speed figures make him a major player.
WIN: #3 Regal Empire, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7: FAST GETAWAY (#2)
I felt the need to reassess this race after the scratch of Repo Rocks, who looked like the clear horse to beat given his consistent recent form. I was going to scratch into Secret Rules on top, but I’m not thrilled with this horse. He was chasing outside against a strong rail bias last time, and we did see Big Engine to return and win off a similar trip. However, Secret Rules has never been a trustworthy win candidate, often settling for minor awards. I would imagine that he’s going to inherit the favorite’s role with Repo Rocks coming out and I just can’t pull the trigger and put him on top. The problem is that most of the alternatives are flawed in some way. Prince James looks like the main danger off his last effort, but he rode a gold rail that day. Many will perceive the claim by Rob Atras to be a positive one, but few trainers have success claiming off Randi Persaud. Horses claimed from Persaud are just 3 for 24 (13%, $0.50 ROI) over the past 5 years. If I’m going to pick against Secret Rules, I want to do so with a bigger price. I’m intrigued by Fast Getaway. I know he looks like a turf horse, and maybe that’s all he is. Yet he did win a dirt race at Saratoga a couple of summers ago by blasting off to the front and holding on late. He’ll have to run faster than that to beat this field, but his form has improved since then. He seemed to take a step forward last summer, and even ran well off the claim for his current connections last December. He’s been off for a little while and perhaps this is just an early tune-up for a turf race in the spring. Yet he’s the inside speed with an aggressive rider in Jackie Davis named to ride. I think he can take them a long way up front, and perhaps Secret Rules won’t feel like passing once again.
WIN: #2 Fast Getaway, at 8-1 or greater
USE with: #8 Secret Rules, at 8-5 or greater
RACE 8: BYHUBBYHELLOMONEY (#5)
There are a couple of interesting runners returning from lengthy layoffs in this New York-bred optional claiming affair. Betsy Blue and Secret Love were the top two finishers in last year’s Bouwerie. That was the last time we saw Secret Love, though Betsy Blue ran four times at this level after that victory, hitting the board without winning each time. This is Betsy Blue’s first start since September, and Linda Rice doesn’t have great stats off layoffs like this. That said, she lands in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so she should get a decent setup. The other drawback is that the barn has been cold at this meet and she could go favored here. Secret Love goes out for another barn that doesn’t have particularly strong stats off layoffs such as this. That said, she ran well in most of her prior starts, throwing in just one clunker when asked to go a mile last February. Her other efforts are all good ones, and she won her career debut impressively, so perhaps she’ll do well fresh. Yet I think there are a couple of horses coming out of a different race who merit consideration. Linda Rice’s other horse Beautiful Karen finished ahead of a few of today’s rivals in that Feb. 6 race at this level, but she got a great trip setting the pace on the best part of the track. I prefer Byhubbyhellomoney out of that affair and she is my top pick. This filly has tried a variety of distances over the past year, but I do think she’s best as a closing sprinter. She raced in the bridle last time but had to briefly wait for room on the far turn and just had too much to do late in a race dominated by horses who were forward and inside. That was her first start with Lasix, and now Bob Dunham adds blinkers, so perhaps further improvement is forthcoming. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss Happy Sophia from that same race. She stayed on well for fourth after a 3- to 4-wide trip, and has outrun her odds on more than one occasion over the past few months.
WIN: #5 Byhubbyhellomoney, at 3-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #10 Happy Sophia, at 12-1 or greater
USE with: #3 Secret Love, #11 Betsy Blue
RACE 9: SUBIACO (#7)
Recent claims are the theme in this finale, as four of the horses who could attract the bulk of the play are all racing first off the claim. Among those is morning line favorite Charge Account, who goes out for Rudy Rodriguez after getting claimed off Kelly Breen. This mare has obviously run some big races in the past, having earned some nice speed figures at Delaware and Colonial Downs last summer. However, she returned off a layoff last time dropping in for a tag and was somewhat lackluster. She got a great trip, riding a gold rail all the way, but still came up empty in the stretch. That was an unusually fast race for the level and both of the top two finishers have returned to regress significantly in subsequent starts. I’m inclined to try to beat her, especially if the TimeformUS Pace Projector is correct and this race features a fast pace. I see two viable alternatives. One of those is Bee Bit, who finished behind Charge Account last time. As I said, I’m not thrilled with that race overall, but at least Bee Bit was wide against the rail bias. She has prior form that makes her logical in here, and she’s going first off the claim for the dangerous Rob Atras barn. My top pick at a bigger price is Subiaco. She’s another who exits a poor effort, but she was also wide against a rail bias. The rail was a distinct advantage early in the day on Jan. 13, and she was wide throughout whereas today’s rival Annika Gold rode the rail to a runner-up finish. Subiaco hasn’t run as fast as some others in here, but she may be catching a few of the shorter prices when they’re not in top form. She’ll appreciate pace up front and should be running on late at a square price.
WIN: #7 Subiaco, at 9-2 or greater
USE with: #3 Bee Bit, at 5-2 or greater