by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 4: 9 - 4 - 10 - 6
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 4 - 9 - 8
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 11 - 5 - 4 - 2
RACE 3: GREEK ALPHABET (#1)
Prioritize and Lemonist are going to attract the bulk of support in this spot. Between these two, I strongly prefer Lemonist. This horse was cut out to be a nice one from the start, but it took Todd Pletcher a long time to get him into top form. Ever since he returned from the layoff at Saratoga last summer, he seems to have found the consistency that had previously eluded him. He ran better than it seems two back, when he was bottled up at the quarter pole before chasing the winner home, and he launched an impressive rally from far behind to win in stylish fashion last time. If he maintains that form, he’ll be difficult to beat. Prioritize is more difficult to trust. He was certainly improving last summer, when he finished third in the Better Talk Now, but I’m not sure that effort necessarily puts him in the winner’s circle here. He’s going to take money on the basis of his third-place finish in the Grade 2 Hill Prince, but he got a great trip that day, riding a strong rail bias throughout. Both of these horses could be compromised by a lack of pace. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and the expected front-runner, Drive to Compete, is likely to scratch in favor of a race on Saturday. That could leave Greek Alphabet to control the tempo on the front end. I like this horse getting back on turf. Even though his pedigree doesn’t necessarily indicate that he should love it, he ran the best race of his career on grass last July. Notably, his two victories were earned in gate-to-wire fashion, and he is likely to be afforded that same trip here.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,7
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,5,7
RACE 4: MAGNESITE (#9)
Givetheman a Cigar will probably take some money in this spot, but I want nothing to do with this horse as he switches to turf. He’s had plenty of chances at relatively short prices, and he struggled in his lone start on grass. Over the past five years, Chris Englehart is 0 for 29 with maidens switching from dirt to turf, and just three of those finished in the money. I’m most interested in horses trying turf for the first time, and the one I find most appealing is Magnesite. This horse has plenty of turf pedigree. He is a son of Willcox Inn out of a dam whose only win came on turf and who was clearly best racing over that surface. While Magnesite did not earn a flashy speed figure in his debut, he ran deceptively well. After dropping far out of contention on the far turn, he made a strong rally through the lane, finishing with much greater energy than any other horse in that field, before galloping out past them all just after the wire. If he can show more early interest this time, that finishing power should carry him to a much better result. I could also include some others trying turf for the first time. First-time starter Sounds Good has the breeding to handle this surface, but it’s not a great sign that he’s starting out in a maiden-claiming race given his classy pedigree. Danzante also interests me, even though he didn’t do any running in his debut. He’s by the good turf influence Disco Rico and out of a dam who was a four-time turf winner. Finally, Friendship Seven is one that I will definitely include, as he may be the biggest price of all of the aforementioned runners. He has turf on the top and bottom of his pedigree and he has a way of moving that should lend itself well to this surface switch.
Win: 9
Exacta Box: 4,9,10
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,8
RACE 5: APEX PREDATOR (#2)
Bassman Dave is clearly the horse to beat off his solid runner-up finish on debut less than three weeks ago. That race came up very fast for the level, but we have yet to receive confirmation of its high speed figures. The winner was a fellow first time starter and the third-place finisher had been eased in his only prior start, so the form is still somewhat questionable. I’m using this horse, but I’m not totally convinced that he will necessarily win this race if he merely repeats his last effort. I’m trying to beat him with Apex Predator. It’s unusual to see these low-profile connections with a $250,000 auction purchase, as they generally campaign cheaper runners. This New York-bred appeared to be worth every bit of that quarter-million dollar price tag when he breezed a furlong in 10-flat at the Fasig-Tipton March sale last year, reaching out beautifully over the dirt surface with quick, efficient strides. It took him a year to get to the races, but he ran fairly well in his debut. He broke slowly and rushed up to chase the pace before tiring. This colt has serious pedigree, by Tale of the Cat out of a Yes It’s True dam who is a half-sister to Japanese Group 1 winner A Shin Forward and $400,000-earner Wake Up in Malibu. Jose Lezcano retains the mount for these low-profile connections and I expect to see improvement in his second start.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6
RACE 6: QUESTEQ (#1)
From a pure class perspective, Barrel of Destiny has to be considered the horse to beat in this spot. She’s been facing much tougher company down at Tampa this winter while going out for the Anthony Grantiz barn. She was beaten by a stakes-bound filly last time and won an open allowance race prior to that, so this return to New York-bred company should be a welcome one. Some may regard her lightly due to the fact that she moves back into the stable of the low-percentage John Hertler, but he can certainly send out a winner when he has live runners in his barn. The fact that Manny Franco signs on is a good sign. My only real concern about this filly is her lack of early speed, especially as she turns back in distance. There is just no pace at all in this field, which could make Questeq very dangerous. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead under Dylan Davis and I don’t mind this surface switch at all. She had always been better on turf than dirt throughout her career, so her recent improvement on the main track this winter was something of a surprise. If she can transfer that improved form back to the grass, she’s a serious threat here. Her last turf race back in September resulted in a victory and she has gained better early speed since then. She’s my selection, but I also want to include Merlins Muse and Shak’s Hidden Gem underneath at better prices. The former goes out for David Donk, who has good numbers off layoffs in turf sprints, while the latter ran well sprinting on turf as a 2-year-old and can improve with maturity.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,8,9
RACE 8: BIG ENGINE (#1)
Fast Getaway is likely to be favored as he returns from a layoff for Linda Rice. He earned a speed figure that would win many races at this level in his 3-year-old finale last October, but the long break between races is a concern. Over the past five years, Rice is 5 for 38 (13 percent, $1.02 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 120 to 240 days in turf sprints. This gelding may not need his best effort to win if none of his rivals improves while switching to turf, but that’s no guarantee. I’ve been waiting for Big Engine to get his opportunity on grass ever since he made his debut last October. He was entered for turf that day, but Jason Servis left him in once the race came off the grass. He ran so well that he was afforded two more dirt opportunities over the winter. He maintained solid form in those starts while failing to step forward off his debut. However, I sense that we could see a significant improvement with this surface switch. This colt’s pedigree is strongly turf-oriented. He’s by the solid turf influence Not for Love and is out of an accomplished turf mare who won the Mount Vernon and Ticonderoga. As a broodmare, she has produced this horse’s full brother Lord of Love, a multiple turf winner. This 4-year-old showed a turfy way of galloping in his dirt starts and has a trainer who excels with this move. Over the past five years, Servis is 3 for 7 (43 percent, $4.28 ROI) with horses trying turf for the first time following a maiden victory. The other two horses that I would use underneath in exotics are Lem Me Tel Ya and Riken. The former was somewhat effective racing on turf in the maiden ranks last year and may appreciate the surface switch, and the latter has enough turf pedigree to handle grass as a half-brother to two turf winners.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,7,11
Trifecta: 1 with 6,7 with 3,6,7,8,11
RACE 9: TWO GRACES (#11)
The horse with the best turf form is Grand Banks, but she’s hard to take as a potential favorite. She’s already made 15 starts on turf and has finished second in 5 of her last 7 starts on that surface. Her speed figures are superior to this field, but she usually finds a rival to beat her. I’m definitely using her in exotics, but you’re supposed to bet against her on the win end. Handle With Care makes her first start since last fall and could be the speed of this field, but I’m concerned she may need a race as she returns from the layoff. I’m more interested in some lightly-raced runners drawn to their outside. Middle Out deserves consideration after running on belatedly in her lone turf start last fall. That race came over 7 furlongs, but she has the pedigree and size to suggest that she will appreciate added ground. I’m taking a shot with Two Graces. She didn’t draw a great post position on the outside, but there is a long run to the first turn. She’s run better than it seems in a couple of her starts on dirt this winter, and I think she may appreciate the surface switch. Her female family is more dirt-oriented, but she is a daughter of Lemon Drop Kid and she has the look of a horse who may appreciate turf and a stretch-out to two turns. She could get somewhat ignored in this wide-open finale.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,4,5