by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   7 - 4 - 6 - 8
Race 5:   6 - 4 - 1A - 5
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 8:   1 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 9:   2 - 1 - 3 - 6

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: VICAR’S LEGEND (#3)
At first glance, Fifty appears to be faster than this field as he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. However, Rice claimed this runner off the highly skilled Jason Servis, and I don’t think Fifty’s last race makes him quite as formidable as it might seem. The $30,000 maiden-claiming races on this circuit are typically very weak affairs, and Fifty just found himself in a spot where he was significantly more talented than his rivals. The runner-up returned to run a much slower race next time out, so I’m a little skeptical about the quality of that race. His main rival is Monteleone. This gelding has run well in all of his dirt starts, and he was legitimately hindered by a wide trip last time over a track that may have been favoring inside runners. He is what he is, and he can certainly win this race if I’m right about Fifty being a little phony. However, one other horse in this race interests me at what should be a much more enticing price. Vicar’s Legend has to be one of the most improved of this past winter at Aqueduct. Steadily, race by race, he’s gotten faster. He was facing a tougher field than this last time, and I liked the way he kept coming, eventually snatching up second over the stakes-placed Morning Buzz. I also think it’s interesting that he finally ran the best race of his career while getting on a fast track after toiling away over a series of wet surfaces. He’s going to get a dry track again here, and I like the switch to Paco Lopez, who will attempt to keep this closer from dropping too far back early.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6

 

RACE 4: DADDY’S HOME (#7)
I don’t trust Diplodocus as the definite favorite here. Brad Cox is one of the best trainers in the country, but the switch into his barn in the middle of last year feels like a move of desperation with a horse who was having trouble breaking through in stakes company for his prior trainer. His loss at Ellis Park last July is hard to swallow, and it now feels like they’re just giving up coming off the layoff. The problem with picking against Diplodocus is that the other options are not fantastic. I don’t really want Jo’s Bold Cat, who has had his chances, and Cookie Crisp ran most of his turf races against maiden-claiming company. The only horse I can make a case for at a decent price is Daddy’s Home, who is getting back on the right surface. The knock against him is that his prior turf routes came for Chad Brown, and that’s a concern. On the other hand, he’s shown improved speed in his recent dirt efforts, so I wonder if Joe Bravo will attempt to secure a forward early position. His main competitors are all closers, so he could get the jump on them with an aggressive ride.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,6,8

 

RACE 5: HIGHLAND SKY (#6)
At his best, Wake Forest is more talented than this field, but nine furlongs is not his best distance, and he could need a race coming off the layoff. Furthermore, he had gone off form prior to the layoff, and you have to wonder if he can recapture his top form as an 8-year-old. I’m trying to beat him. The obvious alternative is Designed for War, from the hot Mike Maker barn. I’m not overly concerned about his poor effort at Turfway last time since he’s not a synthetic horse. His Pan American in April 2017 was excellent, but that’s the only race he’s run that makes him especially formidable here. I respect him, but I want to go in a different direction. I’m giving Highland Sky another chance. I know that this horse has been a massive disappointment, but I do think he’s landing in an appropriate spot here. He never had a chance last time going a flat mile over a hard, chewed-up course at Gulfstream. He’s best at distances between nine and 10 furlongs, and he gets that here. Furthermore, I like that this race is on the outer turf course since he’s a runner who needs to wind up his move on the far turn. The fact of the matter is that despite losing at short prices, his 2017 form actually gives him a big shot here. If he can run back to his Sept. 9 performance at Belmont, he’s probably going to win this race.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,5,7

 

RACE 9: THE GREAT JOHANNA (#2)
Carlisle Belle has to be considered the horse to beat as she turns back in distance after dueling for the lead going a mile last time. The horse that won that race, My Girl Annie, is a superior horse to the rivals she faces today, and Carlisle Belle was game to stick with her until the top of the stretch. A repeat of that effort would make her pretty tough. However, I think there’s another lightly-raced runner in this race that will offer better value. The Great Johanna made one start at Saratoga as a two-year-old and has not been seen since. That day, she showed speed while contesting the pace two-wide in a four-way duel for the lead. She stayed with the leaders for a half mile and then faded in the lane. Now she’s returning for James Ferraro, who does a good job with limited runners, and drops into a softer maiden claiming race. The TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for her debut, an 86, is the highest number earned by any runner in this field, and it’s reasonable to assume that she might be capable of better now that she’s matured.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,8