PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   8 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   4 - 7 - 6 - 10
Race 6:   6 - 5 - 9 - 11
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 8:   4 - 12 - 7 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

I wasn’t thrilled with the idea of taking a short price on either likely favorite in this $25k claimer. Hammerin Aamer (#4)looks like the one to beat as he drops back down in class after facing a tougher starter allowance field last time. He ran fine in his first start off the claim for new connections two back, but I wonder for how long he’s going to maintain top form after leaving Gustavo Rodriguez’s barn back in January. My Friends Beer (#5) is the other logical favorite, but his form is now exposed after he beat a weaker field last time by open lengths. He’s in strong form, but this is a tougher spot and he’s now first off the claim for a barn that doesn’t have the best record with this move. I would consider a couple of alternative options. Pit Boss (#2) didn’t run that well last time, but he was also overmatched against a tougher field at the $40k level. He had fared better in his prior start despite being asked to go 9 furlongs, which may be a touch too far for him. He gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz, but that could also pull in some additional support. My top pick is Doin’ittherightway (#8). This gelding showed some talent during the early part of his 3-year-old season before going to the sidelines. He returned two back in a $20k claimer, and didn’t run that badly, staying on at one pace. He regressed a bit in the slop last time, but the distance may have been too short for him. Now he’s going out for Linda Rice, who is 19 for 46 (41%, $2.49. ROI) first off the claim with horses going from sprints to routes on dirt over the past 5 years. She had originally entered this horse in a much tougher spot in March before scratching to aim here instead.

Fair Value:
#8 DOIN'ITTHERIGHTWAY, at 9-2 or greater
#2 PIT BOSS, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 5

I’ll be interested to see how the public bets this race, as there are a few lightly raced options who seem like candidates to take a lot of money. Among those are first time starter One Headlight (#3), who debuts for Todd Pletcher. This $250k yearling purchase certainly has some turf pedigree, but I’m not inclined to back horses like this as the potential favorite. Christophe Clement has a pair in here, both second time starters. The one with more recency is All Good Here (#2), who ships up from Florida. He showed good speed in his debut at Tampa before fading against open company. I’m a little concerned that there may be limitations here in terms of his overall ability, just based on his physical stature, but he did draw well. Clear Conscience (#12) was not as lucky at the draw, getting the outside post position after drawing the rail in his debut last fall. He got a great trip that day but was running on well at the end for a piece. I just think there are other more interesting runners to highlight at better prices. Among those with turf experience, I’m more interested in Tony O (#7) and Mama Banned Me (#10). Both finished just behind Clear Conscience in that Nov. 11 affair last year, but ran like horses that might benefit from the experience. Tony O is returning from a layoff getting blinkers and Lasix for the first time. I won’t be surprised if he shows improved speed here, so I’m upgrading him a little more. The price figures to be fair for these connections. Among first time turfers, Squid Gamer (#6) has a right to do better on this surface. He runs with a high-stepping action that suggests turf may be better for him, and he’s a half-brother to capable turf winners Klickitat and Evaluator. My top pick is Mudville Nine (#4). This horse has one of the best turf pedigrees in the field, being by underrated turf sire Hard Spun out of a dam who was best on turf and produced 3-time turf winner Glowing Ember. The dam is also a half-sister to Grade 1-placed turf horse Straight Story. This gelding showed some ability in his debut before getting badly taken up on the far turn last time. I expect a better effort as he switches to grass.

Fair Value:
#4 MUDVILLE NINE, at 6-1 or greater
#7 TONY O, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 7

Whittington Park (#4) figures to go favored here after twice hitting the board at this level in recent starts. He’s clearly improved since returning to this circuit over the winter, and has benefited from added ground going a mile. However, now he’s being asked to stretch all the way out to 9 furlongs, and it’s unclear if he really wants to go that far. He’s out of a dam, See the Forest, who has primarily produced one-turn specialists. I also felt he was merely picking up the pieces against superior horses in his last couple of starts, without ever really threatening to win either race. He’s obviously a win candidate, but I don’t see value here. Jeremiah Englehart’s other horse Six Percent (#7) could also take some money as he stretches back out in distance. He did win going this far at Saratoga last summer, but he earned that victory against much weaker company. He hasn’t finished off his recent races as well as I would have liked to see, and I thought he got a great trip moving outside when he won on Jan. 6. I want to go in a different direction with the speedy Sundaeswithsandy (#2). This horse also beat cheaper company when he last won two back, but he was a resounding winner, pulling clear to win by nearly 14 lengths with a strong 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He lost his next start at this level, but I thought he ran a little better than it might appear. He got an unexpected challenge in the early going that day, and battled on gamely through the lane to nearly come back for third at the end. I don’t mind him stretching back out to 9 furlongs even though he lost his prior attempt at this distance. He was having some gate issues back then, which he seems to have since overcome. I’m hoping he gets an aggressive ride from Romero Maragh. I also don’t want to discount Full Moon Fever (#8), the horse who displayed unexpected early speed in that Mar. 18 affair, pressing Sundaeswithsandy early. Both of them paid the price late, but Full Moon Fever has prior form that puts him in the mix here. I expect him to revert to closing tactics under Trevor McCarthy and the distance shouldn’t be an issue.

Fair Value:
#2 SUNDAESWITHSANDY, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

This is another maiden turf event where I didn’t want to default to short prices who still have questions to answer. Jannie Mae (#7) would be the horse to beat if she were able to run back to her effort at this level from last September. She’s returning from a layoff, but lands in a spot where she may be able to get loose on the lead. She’s the one I prefer among the likely short prices, but there are a couple of longshots that I want to consider. My top pick is Sperss (#4), who seems like one that has been waiting to get on this surface. She debuted in a pretty tough maiden event back in January, which has produced stakes winner Downtown Mischief and subsequent turf winner Weekend Rags. She finished far back, but ran like a horse who needed the race. Now she’s returns on grass, and is supposed to like this surface as a half-sister to turf winners Bardolino and Sandrone. They were both better sprinting, but she has a right to prefer longer as a daughter of Lookin at Lucky. The horse horse that interests me at a bigger price is Mischief Motion (#12). Her lone turf performance looks uninspiring, but she may not have been asked for her best that day. She got a very conservative ride but was running on well at the end before galloping out past the entire field. Her dirt races since then have been a mixed bag, but the switch back to grass is mildly intriguing, since she doesn’t seem like one who will attract much attention, especially from this outside draw.

Fair Value:
#4 SPERSS, at 6-1 or greater
#12 MISCHIEF MOTION, at 14-1 or greater