by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 1/1A - 3 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 7 - 11 - 9 - 4
Race 6: 2 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 7: 2 - 7 - 8 - 5
Race 8: 3 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 9: 9 - 10 - 5 - 1
RACE 3: HER ROYAL HIGHNESS (#1)
There are only five fillies entered for turf in this Memories of Silver, but all have a legitimate chance. The two likely to vie for favoritism are trained by Chad Brown. Both exit the Florida Oaks, and neither one worked out a particularly comfortable trip in that roughly run race. Blowout did well to be second after racing two wide much of the way. She got out into the clear a bit earlier than her stablemate La Feve in the lane and took advantage of that opportunity. While it was encouraging to see her run so well in just her second career start, I prefer La Feve on this occasion. This filly has run better than it seems in both of her U.S. starts. She was left with too much ground to make up in the Sweetest Chant, which was dominated by horses racing toward the front end. Then last time, even after she found daylight at the eighth pole, she was forced to rally in very tight quarters approaching the finish. I believe she can do better with a more favorable trip, and I view her as the horse to beat. While I’m using the Brown pair, I actually want to take a shot with a horse who finished behind them at Tampa. Her Royal Highness was making her turf debut that day and clearly demonstrated that she handles this surface. She was racing behind Brown’s fillies in the early going and had to swing wide approaching the stretch, losing ground while the other two waited to reach the lane before tipping out for running room. Based on her prior dirt efforts, Her Royal Highness has the speed to make the lead here in what is basically a paceless affair. Graham Motion and Manny Franco would be wise to take advantage of this rail draw and try to secure a forward position. She may not possess the same turn of foot as others, but she’s capable of sustaining a run and finishing with power.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with ALL
RACE 4: ARCHUMYBABY (#2)
I suppose Shimmering Moon is the horse to beat as she drops back to this New York-bred optional-claiming level after trying open company last time. While she was hardly disgraced in defeat, she really had no excuse to lose that race after opening up a clear lead in the lane. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be clearly in front once again in a situation favoring the early pacesetter. However, I find her hard to trust at a relatively short price. Her two main rivals appear to be Hay Field and Archumybaby. Hay Field would obviously win this race if she got back to any of her races from 2018. However, she was extremely disappointing in her return on Feb. 1, and she didn’t run that much better against starter-allowance company March 30. She was in position to win and just could not fend off No Deal in the late stages. I find her difficult to endorse as a potential second choice. Therefore, I’m landing on Archumybaby. If this filly runs back to her win in the Videogenic Stakes last time, she is going to collect another victory. She really had no business winning that race since her form was vastly inferior to the favorite, Summer Punch. That rival took a clear lead into the final eighth, and Archumybaby put in a furious stretch rally to run her down. She has clearly improved off the claim for Gary Gullo, and this step up in class suggests that she’s continuing to do well.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
RACE 5: ORBILICIOUS (#7)
Pound Note may be the favorite here despite drawing a difficult outside post position. She was facing some decent fillies in Florida and ran respectably in those races against open company. She should appreciate the return to New York-breds, and it’s a good sign that she’s attracted top rider Irad Ortiz. I’m definitely using her, but I’m concerned about her trip from this slot. This race is fairly wide open among the rest of the field. Smiles From Sadie will attract support, but she has a case of seconditis, and her lone turf start was lackluster. Summer Squeeze could win this race if she ran back to her lone prior turf route, but she’s missed plenty of time since that race. I want to take a shot with a longshot. Orbilicious would have intrigued me wherever she showed up after her last two trips, but I’m actually quite pleased that she’s been entered in a turf race. She ran much better than it seems two back when she was bumped hard and spotted the field a couple of lengths at the start. Then last time, she again was off toward the back of the pack but then was unwisely rushed up in a premature move. She’s in much better form than it seems, and I believe she’ll appreciate this switch to grass. She’s sired by the decent turf influence Orb, and her dam was clearly best on turf, making 17 of her 19 starts on that surface and winning twice. Eric Cancel needs to deliver a more patient ride this time to be successful. The other horse that I would use prominently is Codrington. This filly gets a significant trainer change to Danny Gargan, and it's important to point out that her turf races last fall at Belmont were not nearly as poor as they seem given her difficult trips in those spots. She can make some noise here at a price.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,9,11,12
RACE 8: RALLY CAP (#3)
I believe Rally Cap is the most likely winner of this race, and I strongly prefer him to the other short-priced alternatives. This horse makes his first start as a new gelding in this spot, and I find it encouraging that he put forth an eye-catching bullet workout last week following that change. He doesn’t have to improve much on his prior form to be considered quite formidable against this crew. He defeated main rival Kadens Courage two back when only beaten by the stakes-bound runner London House. Rally Cap was somewhat disappointing last time when he finished third as the favorite, but he was also racing wide in a race where the pace never truly developed. The aforementioned Kaden’s Courage has also run some competitive speed figures, but his recent performance suggest that he may be heading in the wrong direction. He had little excuse when losing to Rally Cap two back and then didn’t handle the stretch-out last time. The fact that he’s running in this spot – for a $60,000 tag – instead of the New York-bred stakes tomorrow does not exactly inspire confidence as to his prospects here. Linda Rice entered a pair of recent maiden winners, who are both making their first starts off the claim. Most will consider Stink Man to be the bigger threat, but I’m somewhat troubled that the horse he defeated has come back to run poorly in his subsequent starts. I prefer It’s Mo Joke, who was dominant in victory last time and may be able to improve for these new connections.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with 2,4,5,6