by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 5 - 6 - 9
Race 5: 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 6: 5 - 1/1A - 9 - 8
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 4 - 9
RACE 3: VICAR’S LEGEND (#6)
It’s difficult to trust any of the short prices in this field, and heading that list is Freudian Sip. On the surface of things he probably looks like the horse to beat in this spot, since he just lost at this level by a nose last time. However, he had everything go his way that day, as he got a perfect trip sitting on the rail behind a quick pace on a day when there was a significant inside bias. Even in the stretch, eventual winner Shamrocked drifted off the rail, giving Freudian Sip a clear path to victory, he couldn’t quite capitalize. I suppose he’s a player, but I can’t take him at a short price. I prefer runners to the inside like Professor Snape and Releasethethunder, both of whom are fairly logical. The former has clearly improved in recent starts, but goes out for low-profile connections, whereas the latter is not known for his consistency. Given the question marks surrounding all of them, I want to get a little more creative. My top pick is long shot Vicar’s Legend. He was beaten by Freudian Sip in that aforementioned Feb. 13 affair, but he was making his run outside whereas Freudian Sip never left the rail. Since then he ran a competitive speed figure two back, and then was overmatched in that starter stakes last time. Some will write him off based on the switch to a low-profile barn, but this trainer did good work with fellow cheap runner Manifest Destiny. If he merely holds his form together he has a right to get into the mix here at a price.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,7
RACE 5: PRAIRIE FIRE (#3)
Timely Tradition has to be considered the horse to beat as she turns back to her preferred sprint distance. That route experiment just didn’t work out last time as she was dull every step of the way, unable to muster a rally in a race that held together on the front end. Prior to that she was in very strong form. I can’t fault her for losing to the streaking Letmetakethiscall two back, and she didn’t get the best trip in that stakes at Laurel last November. She loves this distance and isn’t catching the strongest field for this level. She’s a deserving favorite, but she will have to contend with the early speed of the undefeated Chub Wagon. The new face in this field ships in from Parx with a perfect career record. She showed speed and promise in her two starts last year, but took her game to the next level in that most recent victory. She blasted away from the gate and never was in danger as she just cruised away from that field under minimal urging. Chub Wagon was 1-5 for a reason as those who finished behind her were badly overmatched. That said, she now she finds herself in a field where she should be the controlling speed. The one major downside is her trainer’s poor record (0-for-20 over 5 years) at NYRA. I want to go in a different direction with Prairie Fire. One of two Linda Rice trainees in this field, she’ll be looking to get back on track following a couple of disappointing efforts against stakes company. She may not have appreciated the aggressive tactics used in the La Verdad two back as she’s typically best from off the pace. And last time in the Correction she was always in a bad position racing wide against a rail bias. She’s likely in better form that that, and her prior efforts from late 2020 give her a strong chance here. She finished ahead of today’s favorite Timely Tradition when they met in the Iroquois last year, albeit with a favorable pace setup. Furthermore, she retains Eric Cancel, who has been on a roll over this strip.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4 with 1,2,4
RACE 6: DREAMS OF TOMORROW (#5)
This Peter Brant/Chad Brown pair are likely to be prohibitive favorites as part of a coupled entry in this turf allowance. However, I’m not thrilled with either runner. La Hara comes off a disappointing 2020 campaign in which he was bet down to short prices in three starts at this level and was unable to win. Let’s not fault him for losing to Colonel Liam last July, but his last two losses as the odds-on favorite are more difficult to forgive. He just hasn’t ever moved forward from his visually impressive debut two seasons ago, and I’m concerned he might even have tailed off. Kuramata is not as familiar and may be the half of the entry that attracts even more attention as he’s ridden by Irad Ortiz. While he got the job done in his U.S. debut, it was hardly the most visually impressive performance. He was off slowly but got a little rank after that as he rushed up into contention. He had to be strongly roused in upper stretch to take over and hung on his wrong lead late while one-paced to the wire. He has to do better than that if he’s to beat this field, and I’m not inclined to take a short price on him despite his apparent potential. I’m instead going with the obvious alternative. I don’t love Dreams of Tomorrow, but he feels like the right horse in this spot. He ran well to break his maiden over this course last December, spurting clear in upper stretch going 9 furlongs. He made just one start over the winter at Gulfstream and lost at a relatively short price. Yet he was beaten by a solid runner who came out of that race to improve his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 7 points. I also feel that the mile may have been a bit sharp for him last time, and he should appreciate stretching back out here. He should get a perfect trip stalking the likely speed Singapore Trader, and I’m hoping he can hold off the Chad Brown duo late.
Win: 5
Trifecta: 5 with 1 with 2,8,9
RACE 7: HONOR WAY (#1)
The two classiest runners in this Grade 3 Distaff are obviously Paris Lights and Lady Kate. The former is a Grade 1 winner and the latter was second to the almighty Monomoy Girl in a Grade 1 event last year. However, both are returning from layoffs and turning back in distance. I’m more concerned about the cutback in trip for Paris Lights, who just doesn’t feel like a natural fit for this race. She improved going two turns last year, racing up close to moderate paces. She’s likely to get outrun in the early stages this time and it’s unclear if she possesses the quickness to outkick some of the natural sprinters in the lineup. I’m more optimistic about Lady Kate turning back. I actually don’t mind her going 7 furlongs at all and think that’s a better distance for her than the 1 1/8 miles she tried in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last time. She didn’t run well against top-level company in her two final starts of 2020, but she had shown quality prior to that and is clearly good enough to beat this field. She’s also swift enough in the early stages to get the right kind of trip, potentially even setting the pace. Yet I still have some concerns about readiness off the layoff. Therefore, I’ve landed on the more reliable Honor Way. This filly doesn’t have the back class of the other two favorites, but she was in career form at the age of 6 in 2020. Following a smashing optional claiming win at Saratoga, she’s now finished in the exacta in 5 consecutive starts, and is seeking her third stakes win in a row. She was flattered when Pacific Gale, who she twice defeated in the fall, went on to win a pair of graded stakes at Gulfstream over the winter. This mare, now 7-years-old, loves the 7-furlong distance and usually performs her best for Jose Ortiz, who has ridden her in 5 of her last 7 victories.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 3,4,5
RACE 8: THEITALIANAMERICAN (#1)
Following the scratch of Kikkerland, we're left with a couple of short prices that I don't love. I suppose the most likely winner is Black Irish, who is getting needed class relief after facing a salty maiden special weight field last time. He’s not exactly trustworthy, but he does have prior form that makes him competitive as he drops to the lowest level of his career. I can’t take the other potential short price Forest Spirit, who had no excuse to lose after riding a gold rail last time. Instead, I want to give another shot to Theitalianamerican. This horse has definitely been a disappointment, and some might say he’s already run out of chances. Yet, he did show some signs of life last time in his second start off the claim for Karl Broberg. That was a much tougher field than this and he was making good late progress despite the fact that his rider was barely persevering with him. I like him drawing the rail since he tends to wind up there anyway and I don’t think he’s that far off the favorites based on his last effort.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5