by David Aragona
The highlight of Friday’s card is the stakes-worthy optional claiming race that goes as Race 8. The favorite Timeline, winner of last year’s Peter Pan, makes his 4-year-old debut, but he figures to get a stern challenge from a few key rivals. Multiple stakes winner Sunny Ridge cuts back to one turf for the first time since his 2-year-old season, and high class allowance horse Splashtastic also returns from an extended layoff. Among those with recent form, Flash Trading has put forth some of the best efforts of the winter meet at Aqueduct, and he comes out of a strong win over Gift Box. Given the lack of early pace in this race, I think Timeline is going to be awfully tough to beat, but this should be a fun one to watch.
While the 8th race may not be the greatest wagering race on the card, there are plenty of other opportunities throughout the day, and I'll take a look at a few of those.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 13 - 9 - 14
Race 5: 6 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 10 - 9 - 3 - 11
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 9: 11 - 1 - 6 - 9
RACE 4: GIANT RUBIES (#2)
Both O Shea Can U See and Susans Funnybone have been scratched. That leaves Croatia as the horse to beat. His lone competitive speed figure looks pretty phony. However, this is still a wide-open field, and I’m not content to settle for the favorite. Anything Pazible has back races that make him competitive, but his recent form is lackluster. I'll use both of them, but the horse who interests me at a price is Giant Rubies. His debut is not nearly as bad as it seems. The chart comment fails to note that he broke slowly and spotted the field multiple lengths. From there, he raced extremely wide throughout yet still put in a mild late run. The 72 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned is not considerably slower than what the favorites are running, and he figures to improve with that experience under his belt.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 9,13,14
RACE 5: PRESENCE OF MIND (#6)
Morning Breez is hard to trust after losing as the 1-5 favorite against a weaker field than this one. He could be heading in the wrong direction, and it’s not as if he ever loved to win races. The problem is that I’m not in love with the logical alternatives, both trained by Todd Pletcher. I suppose Analyze the Odds will take money after winning at this level going a mile. However, he’s a plodder who really needs a solid pace to close into, and I’m not sure how much help he’s going to get. What the Catch is probably the more talented of the two Pletcher runners, but I have my doubts about him getting the 6 1/2-furlong distance. I think this race is begging for a new face to emerge, so I’m taking a shot with Presence of Mind off the layoff. George Weaver’s numbers with dirt sprinters coming back off breaks like this are mediocre at best, but I’m willing to overlook that. This colt’s effort in the Tremont last year was actually pretty decent. The early pace was fast (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs), and Presence of Mind chased the leaders until the race fell apart at the end. This time, he can work out an outside stalking trip and may run a better race with routine maturity.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5
RACE 6: MYSTERIO (#10)
Sentry is the only horse in this field who has strung together decent turf efforts. However, I do have some concerns. This gelding has squandered good chances to win recently. He also has required significant time between starts, which is never a great sign. I think you have to use him, but I don’t love him. The other runner likely to take money is Texican, who switches to turf while dropping in class. Chad Brown actually has good numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 12 (33 percent, $3.03 ROI) with horses dropping to maiden-claiming company for the first time while making their turf debuts. The horse is a half-brother to two turf winners despite being a Bernardini, so perhaps he can handle this surface. I’ll use both, but one longshot has a chance to upset the field. Mysterio made one start on turf nearly a year ago, and it was actually a decent effort. He got a fine trip racing along the rail for the first 7 furlongs, but had to alter course at the eighth pole when he ducked in with nowhere to go at the gap in the course. From there, he angled outside and just missed fourth while herded out late. In my opinion, he ran well enough that day to suggest that he deserves another shot racing over turf. This gelding is out of a dam who was a turf stakes winner and is a half-brother to two turf winners, so this is his preferred surface. If he’s ready to go off the layoff, he can make some noise here.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,9,11
Trifecta: 3,9,11 with 3,9,11 with 10
RACE 9: BOURBON BOY (#11)
Chad Brown’s firster Financial System can obviously win, but he actually has fairly weak numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is just 2 for 24 ($0.90 ROI) with first time starters in maiden claiming turf routes. Also, while this horse is by good turf sire Twirling Candy, there isn’t much grass pedigree on the dam’s side. The problem with this race is that, if you don’t like Victor Lounge (and I don’t), you have to get a little creative to find alternatives. The one that many will gravitate towards is Inevitable, and for good reason. This horse is by good turf sire Giant’s Causeway and is out of a dam that ran very well on turf and hails from a strong grass family. The only problem I have with Inevitable is the fact that he’s running for a tag. Surely his connections purchased him for $180,000 with turf in mind, so why is he only running on it now as a 4-year-old while racing for a $40,000 tag? It doesn’t add up. If I’m going to bet a first time turf runner in this race, I’d rather take a horse at a bigger price, and I think Bourbon Boy fits the bill. His dirt races are slow, but he presents himself as one that should move up with the switch to turf. Street Sense is a decent enough turf sire and his dam is a turf winner that hails from a turf female family. I like that he showed better early interest with the addition of blinkers last time in a race where he ran better than it seems given his ridiculously wide trip. These connections are sure to get overlooked and I think this one will outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,4,6,9